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TheBigLebowski
07-20-2011, 09:52 AM
Please.

We, the fans, the laypeople - the Hoi Polloi - crowed the entire off-season to fix the shortstop and left field situations. They were the team's most obvious needs. Nothing was done. Don't mentio Renteria - he made a bad situation worse. We then crowed for Cozart's call up weeks before it happened. It was the obvious solution, it comes weeks too late, but has worked wonderfully. Most of us knew Drew Stubbs was not a leadoff hitter. We are pitifully underachieving, below .500 and 5 games out as of this morning. Our offense is sputtering and, spare me, those of you who crow about run differential. If you score 743 runs in one game then none over the next 20, you do NOT have a good offense.

Our pitching has been above average, if not very good. Our bullpen is fine. So these are the moves we are apparently looking to make to fix this team:

Reds rumored to have interest Ubaldo Jimenez
Reds rumored to have interest in Jason Isringhausen, Todd Coffey (!!!!), Jason Frasor and other relievers
Reds rumored to have interest in Chone Figgins and Coco Crisp

Am I losing my mind? Starting pitching is NOT our problem. Heck, it's been said that no Jimenez deal would take place if Mesorasco was not involved. Relief pitching is NOT our problem. At all. If you add a reliever, even though we don't need it, we'd have to send one of our current ones down or possibly include him in such a deal. A reliable leadoff batter with high OBP IS a need, but we're going to address it by giving up something, a prospect or a current player, for leadoff hitters who have LOWER OBP than the guys we currently use there and one, in Figgins, who is owed a helluva lot of money????

Can someone please explain to me what the deuce is going on around here? Please?

TheBigLebowski
07-20-2011, 10:04 AM
Sorry to respond to my own thread, but I read now we're also interested in James Shields. He'd cost just as much to acquire as Jimenez. Mesorasco would likely have to be involved in either deal.

Red Rover
07-20-2011, 10:33 AM
Here is why the Reds are going after pitching.

Team Rank - Runs Scored by Month
March
1st MLB & 1st NL

April
4th MLB & 2nd NL

May
4th MLB & 1st NL

June
6th MLB & 2nd NL

Team Rank - Runs Allowed by Month
March
29th MLB & 29th NL

April
18th MLB & 11th NL

May
30th MLB & 30th NL

June
7th MLB & 3rd NL

This current month the Pitching & Hitting stinks, but you can look back month by month and see the problem is Pitching (es. Starting Pitching).

markymark69
07-20-2011, 10:34 AM
I agree with you wholeheartedly on the bullpen help - don't get that one at all.

A potential No. 1 starter of Jimenez or Shields - I could go along with that, especially one that the Reds would have control of for a few years.

With that said, a bat or two has to be the No. 1 (and really the only) option that this team should be looking for.

Stray
07-20-2011, 10:39 AM
Our starting pitching has been pretty bad most of this year so I can see why we're looking. That said, I'd much rather go for a bat behind Votto than I would anything else.

Red Rover
07-20-2011, 11:06 AM
I agree a 4 hole hitter/monster would help this offense, but if you think that the Reds are going to make the playoffs by adding bats than give me some of that Kool-Aid too.

The Pirates are in first place, because of their pitching. If the Reds would have gotten better pitching they could be in first.

Hillsdale87
07-20-2011, 11:21 AM
What 4 hole hitter is available that people want to go after? The only possibility is Beltran, but his price is far too steep. Even if the Reds' pitching is turning a corner, it would be great to have a top starting pitcher along with Cueto going into the playoffs. The Giants won the WS last year on the strength of their starting pitching.

Red Rover
07-20-2011, 11:25 AM
David Wright for 3B is ideal. I not sure if he is available.

Redinlexington
07-20-2011, 11:26 AM
I think Jocketty knows that we stilll need sp to compete with any of the big boys. Our window is in the next 3 years, so if you can get a sp like Jiminez or Shields you do it, even if we lose Mes or Grandal or Alonso. Hitters can be developed and found via Fa in the off season. I feel a small fire sale coming, Hernandez, Coco (with reds eating some salary), Gomes. If the Reds do aquire Jiminez or Shields, I think you will see one of the sps( probably Bailey gone) along with Alonso and or Mesoraco or Grandal.

TheBigLebowski
07-20-2011, 11:26 AM
I have no confidence in this offense. Our starting pitching may not rival Philly's but it's pretty good. We have a veteran innings eater who "keeps you in ballgames" in Arroyo. We have two live young arms in Cueto and Bailey who could be TOR arms for a long, long time (Bailey's durability, of course, is in question). Leake is also a young guy who projects as a very solid 2/3 guy (even though I am admittedly not a huge fan of his). We have a former ace in Willis who is still relatively young and appears to have channeled his former self. We have Travis Wood, who should be a serviceable MOR guy for a long time. Volquez..blech..but there's also Lecure and Maloney, who could be #5 starters for most teams. Jimenez and Shields would, of course, be welcome additions to any rotations in baseball. But it's not our weakness and it's not worth giving up a guy like Mesorasco plus others...no way...and our bullpen is firm. This lineup needs some punch.

Girevik
07-20-2011, 11:28 AM
I agree.....hitting IS the problem. The Reds DESPARATELY need either a cleanup hitter or a leadoff hitter (preferably both) at LF, SS, and/or 3B.

Problem is, I'm just not sure there's much out there to be had. It DOES appear that there are some pitchers that could help the Reds, both this year and beyone. I think it's foolish to say "no I won't improve my pichting because I need hitting help worse". Do you ANYTHING you can to improve your team. If priority 1 isn't there, move to option 2, and so on. If the Reds can pick up a quality starter that will be around for at least a couple of years, then pull the trigger!

brm7675
07-20-2011, 11:30 AM
Please.

We, the fans, the laypeople - the Hoi Polloi - crowed the entire off-season to fix the shortstop and left field situations. They were the team's most obvious needs. Nothing was done. Don't mentio Renteria - he made a bad situation worse. We then crowed for Cozart's call up weeks before it happened. It was the obvious solution, it comes weeks too late, but has worked wonderfully. Most of us knew Drew Stubbs was not a leadoff hitter. We are pitifully underachieving, below .500 and 5 games out as of this morning. Our offense is sputtering and, spare me, those of you who crow about run differential. If you score 743 runs in one game then none over the next 20, you do NOT have a good offense.

Our pitching has been above average, if not very good. Our bullpen is fine. So these are the moves we are apparently looking to make to fix this team:

Reds rumored to have interest Ubaldo Jimenez
Reds rumored to have interest in Jason Isringhausen, Todd Coffey (!!!!), Jason Frasor and other relievers
Reds rumored to have interest in Chone Figgins and Coco Crisp

Am I losing my mind? Starting pitching is NOT our problem. Heck, it's been said that no Jimenez deal would take place if Mesorasco was not involved. Relief pitching is NOT our problem. At all. If you add a reliever, even though we don't need it, we'd have to send one of our current ones down or possibly include him in such a deal. A reliable leadoff batter with high OBP IS a need, but we're going to address it by giving up something, a prospect or a current player, for leadoff hitters who have LOWER OBP than the guys we currently use there and one, in Figgins, who is owed a helluva lot of money????

Can someone please explain to me what the deuce is going on around here? Please?

It's real simple you have senior citizens who are out of touch with today's game running the team. It's that plain and simple. Dusty wants to be friends, not a manager, Walt is living off his "success" in St. louis (btw how is St. Louis doing since he left? maybe it wasn't him) and we are now in the situation we are in..

brm7675
07-20-2011, 11:32 AM
Here is why the Reds are going after pitching.

Team Rank - Runs Scored by Month
March
1st MLB & 1st NL

April
4th MLB & 2nd NL

May
4th MLB & 1st NL

June
6th MLB & 2nd NL

Team Rank - Runs Allowed by Month
March
29th MLB & 29th NL

April
18th MLB & 11th NL

May
30th MLB & 30th NL

June
7th MLB & 3rd NL

This current month the Pitching & Hitting stinks, but you can look back month by month and see the problem is Pitching (es. Starting Pitching).

We have scored less then 4 runs and loss in something like 23 out of our 48 or 49 losses. Our pitching has struggled but is fine, our hitting is horible, to think adding pitching will turn this team is just wrong. Add all the pitching you want, we will continue to lose many more then we win.

TheBigLebowski
07-20-2011, 11:32 AM
I agree.....hitting IS the problem. The Reds DESPARATELY need either a cleanup hitter or a leadoff hitter (preferably both) at LF, SS, and/or 3B.

Problem is, I'm just not sure there's much out there to be had. It DOES appear that there are some pitchers that could help the Reds, both this year and beyone. I think it's foolish to say "no I won't improve my pichting because I need hitting help worse". Do you ANYTHING you can to improve your team. If priority 1 isn't there, move to option 2, and so on. If the Reds can pick up a quality starter that will be around for at least a couple of years, then pull the trigger!

I'd rather punt this year than sell off our best trading chips (guys who could make this team even better next year, btw - Mes is going to be a ML stud, as I believe will Grandal, Alonso, Boxberger, etc) to gild the lily (our starting pitching and bullpen), so to say. Alonso, Mesorasco, Frazier, Sappelt and guys like Hamilton can help us as soon as next year. A few of them could help this year, for crying out loud. I don't want to sacrifice them for guys like Shields and Jimenez who, albeit good pitchers, are not true aces and it's just not a glaring need right now anyway. We've allowed 3 runs to the division leaders in 2 games and won neither game, nor have we crossed home plate.

brm7675
07-20-2011, 11:33 AM
What 4 hole hitter is available that people want to go after? The only possibility is Beltran, but his price is far too steep. Even if the Reds' pitching is turning a corner, it would be great to have a top starting pitcher along with Cueto going into the playoffs. The Giants won the WS last year on the strength of their starting pitching.

Hunter Pence

brm7675
07-20-2011, 11:34 AM
I'd rather punt this year than sell off our best trading chips (guys who could make this team even better next year, btw - Mes is going to be a ML stud, as I believe will Grandal, Alonso, Boxberger, etc) to gild the lily (our starting pitching and bullpen), so to say. Alonso, Mesorasco, Frazier, Sappelt and guys like Hamilton can help us as soon as next year. A few of them could help this year, for crying out loud. I don't want to sacrifice them for guys like Shields and Jimenez who, albeit good pitchers, are not true aces and it's just not a glaring need right now anyway. We've allowed 3 runs to the division leaders in 2 games and won neither game, nor have we crossed home plate.

Our catching prospect to me is the only one who I don't deal, there is no one else in the farm system that is untouchable for the right deal. However I don't feel trading for a pitcher addresses this teams needs. Again call Houston, see what it takes to get Hunter Pence to start off.

Redinlexington
07-20-2011, 11:39 AM
The Reds offense is terrible and but there isn't a quick fix to it. The lineup has pieces but more holes. No leadoff hitter, no right handed bat with pop to protect Votto, no way to manufacture runs. There is no one hitter out there to fill all the holes via trade Phillips isn't a cleanup hitter. The first thing you have to do is address the leadoff position, move Cozart there and Phillips back to the 2 hole. Try and trade for a leadoff hitter and leave Phillips in the 2 hole. Still we need a right handed bad around Votto and Bruce with some pop. Can Mesoraco bat cleanup? Anything is better than what we see now.

brm7675
07-20-2011, 11:39 AM
I think Jocketty knows that we stilll need sp to compete with any of the big boys. Our window is in the next 3 years, so if you can get a sp like Jiminez or Shields you do it, even if we lose Mes or Grandal or Alonso. Hitters can be developed and found via Fa in the off season. I feel a small fire sale coming, Hernandez, Coco (with reds eating some salary), Gomes. If the Reds do aquire Jiminez or Shields, I think you will see one of the sps( probably Bailey gone) along with Alonso and or Mesoraco or Grandal.

At this point nothing leads me to believe Walt has any clue what he is doing, what needs to be done and what value he has in the minors. In fact since "taking" over I haven't really seen anything from our GM that suggests to me that the "magic" he worked in St. Louis was from him.

brm7675
07-20-2011, 11:42 AM
The Reds offense is terrible and but there isn't a quick fix to it. The lineup has pieces but more holes. No leadoff hitter, no right handed bat with pop to protect Votto, no way to manufacture runs. There is no one hitter out there to fill all the holes via trade Phillips isn't a cleanup hitter. The first thing you have to do is address the leadoff position, move Cozart there and Phillips back to the 2 hole. Try and trade for a leadoff hitter and leave Phillips in the 2 hole. Still we need a right handed bad around Votto and Bruce with some pop. Can Mesoraco bat cleanup? Anything is better than what we see now.

No way you put Mesoraco in the 4 hole, if he gets called up (which I would do) you bat him like 7th or 8th for the rest of this season to see what he can do and adjust. Maybe in another year or so he gets bumped up, but not this early. As for leadoff, I would consider giving Cozart a shot at it, but Dusty's love of Edgar makes that move doubtful. This team needs to address in house issues first then look to see who can be added.

ervinsm84
07-20-2011, 11:43 AM
of course a offense that could have a std deviation that would include a game with 743 runs and 0 in the next, then it wouldn't be good. thing is, the std deviation will never be off the charts like that bc we live in the real world.

also saying spare me on run diff or total runs, look at the teams ops ranking and then its fip & xfip

those suggest the same thing. sure every offense including the reds could be "better" and a legit 4 spot guy would be great, but the need according to almost every single statistic is much greater at pitching

Redinlexington
07-20-2011, 11:44 AM
The Giants put Buster Posey in the 3 hole last year, and I think the Reds lineup is equal to the Giants of last year. Just saying that if Mes is that good, put hime behind Votto and in front of Bruce. He will see pitches there. It is not a ridiculous idea.

krm1580
07-20-2011, 11:45 AM
I will try and take a look at this from a non-fan, strictly by the numbers point of view.

Two Key points for my discussion:

1.) This team is on a budget. Whether you like it or not, whether you agree with it or not it is a fact that controls a LOT of what the Reds can or cannot do to fix this team.

2.) The 2010 Reds led the league in scoring.

Lets take a look at the 2 positions everyone keeps hitting on.

Shortstop:
-Paul Janish OPS .723 in 2010.
-His OPS increased 3 straight years indicating he is improving. Not a fluke.
-No significant upgrades in the minors (Cozart was a .726 guy in AAA for reference)
-No cost effective, significant free agent upgrades available.

Given the information above and your limited budget are you ok with a very good fielding SS that will OPS around .675-700 BATTING 8th. I would say YES.

Leftfield
-Jonny Gomes career .887OPs vs LHP, .856 vs LHP in 2010
-Fred Lewis career .803OPS vs RHP
-If platooned properly you net an OPS of about .825
-No minor league options that net signifcantly more than .825OPS
-No cost effective free agent options that net significantly more than .825 OPS

Given the information above and your limited budget are you ok with a LF platoon that will OPS around .800-850 . Again, I would say YES.

Based on the assumptions and the way things have played out the only thing I can really fault Walt for is waiting so long to bring up Cozart. Its not that I think Cozart was going to be a phenom, but Janish was so bad, it was almost impossible for him to be any worse. The outfield situation I think is more a function of Dusty's managing.

So why is this team struggling so bad if Walt's moves were so good. My answer is this team came into this season entirely too reliant on Scott Rolen's bat which was clearly in decline in the second half of last season

Looking back to last season, pre All-Star break this team was fueled by Votto and a monster first half by Rolen. Post-All-Star break this team was fueled by Votto and big second halves by Bruce and Stubbs.

Coming into this season my single biggest concern was Rolen. I could find the thread, but I said that if 2011 Scott Rolen is the 2010 post all-star Scott Rolen, this team will have a giant gap in the cleanup spot if Bruce or Stubbs cannot consistently produce like they did in the second half of 2010. Well that is pretty much what has happened this year.

Girevik
07-20-2011, 11:48 AM
I'd rather punt this year than sell off our best trading chips (guys who could make this team even better next year, btw - Mes is going to be a ML stud, as I believe will Grandal, Alonso, Boxberger, etc) to gild the lily (our starting pitching and bullpen), so to say. Alonso, Mesorasco, Frazier, Sappelt and guys like Hamilton can help us as soon as next year. A few of them could help this year, for crying out loud. I don't want to sacrifice them for guys like Shields and Jimenez who, albeit good pitchers, are not true aces and it's just not a glaring need right now anyway. We've allowed 3 runs to the division leaders in 2 games and won neither game, nor have we crossed home plate.

I think you're putting too much stock in the potential of all these young guys. Looks back at all the "studs" the Reds have had in the system in the past...how many have panned out? And even if they DO develop into stars, most guys take several years in the bigs to become difference makers. Even if those guys make the bigs next year, by they time they develop to thier potential guys like Phillips and Votto may well be gone.

I'd much rather have the proven commodity rather than the hope of potential in general, and given that I think this team's window will be open for about two more years before it slams on our fingers, I think the focus needs to be on what ever can improve the team over the short term and grab that ring while you're as close as you have been in 20 years

Girevik
07-20-2011, 11:49 AM
Still we need a right handed bad around Votto and Bruce with some pop.

I think if you get a legit leadoff hitter, Stubbs can be that guy.

Red Rover
07-20-2011, 11:50 AM
We have scored less then 4 runs and loss in something like 23 out of our 48 or 49 losses. Our pitching has struggled but is fine, our hitting is horible, to think adding pitching will turn this team is just wrong. Add all the pitching you want, we will continue to lose many more then we win.

The hitting has struggled in July, that's 15 games, of which the Reds have a 5-10 record. Every month before July the Reds have led or been in the top of the the league in Runs scored. The don't have a problem scoring runs.

Did you know that in the last 15 days(remember a 5-10 record) that the pitching staff has given up 4 or more runs in 10 of those games.

brm7675
07-20-2011, 11:50 AM
The Giants put Buster Posey in the 3 hole last year, and I think the Reds lineup is equal to the Giants of last year. Just saying that if Mes is that good, put hime behind Votto and in front of Bruce. He will see pitches there. It is not a ridiculous idea.

I don't think Mes is anywhere near the player Posey is, lets remember he has not torn up the minors until middle part of last year and this season. Again bring him, but DO NOT bat him higher then 7th or 8th.

Redinlexington
07-20-2011, 11:54 AM
If he is not anywhere the player Posey is, then I trade him for Jimenz if the Rockies want him. Mes ins't a cleanup hitter but with the options we have, he might be the best.

brm7675
07-20-2011, 12:07 PM
I will try and take a look at this from a non-fan, strictly by the numbers point of view.

Two Key points for my discussion:

1.) This team is on a budget. Whether you like it or not, whether you agree with it or not it is a fact that controls a LOT of what the Reds can or cannot do to fix this team.

It's all teams are on a budget, but to think this team is restricted in getting players due to money is false. Bob has shown when needed he will spend, I mean heck he spent 30 million on an unknown, untested Chapman, the monies are there.

2.) The 2010 Reds led the league in scoring.

So what, what did this team do in 2009, 2008? To think we would repeat the 2010 numbers with the same players just shows how out of touch Dusty and Walt are.

Lets take a look at the 2 positions everyone keeps hitting on.

Shortstop:
-Paul Janish OPS .723 in 2010.
-His OPS increased 3 straight years indicating he is improving. Not a fluke.
-No significant upgrades in the minors (Cozart was a .726 guy in AAA for reference)
-No cost effective, significant free agent upgrades available.

Given the information above and your limited budget are you ok with a very good fielding SS that will OPS around .675-700 BATTING 8th. I would say YES.

Leftfield
-Jonny Gomes career .887OPs vs LHP, .856 vs LHP in 2010
-Fred Lewis career .803OPS vs RHP
-If platooned properly you net an OPS of about .825
-No minor league options that net signifcantly more than .825OPS
-No cost effective free agent options that net significantly more than .825 OPS

Problem is Dusty can't manage, Dusty can't platoon anything correctly and Walt should know this, and thus not even presented this possibility to Dusty.

Given the information above and your limited budget are you ok with a LF platoon that will OPS around .800-850 . Again, I would say YES.

Based on the assumptions and the way things have played out the only thing I can really fault Walt for is waiting so long to bring up Cozart. Its not that I think Cozart was going to be a phenom, but Janish was so bad, it was almost impossible for him to be any worse. The outfield situation I think is more a function of Dusty's managing.

So why is this team struggling so bad if Walt's moves were so good. My answer is this team came into this season entirely too reliant on Scott Rolen's bat which was clearly in decline in the second half of last season

I would challenge that Walt's moves were no where near good, in fact I would say they were pretty horrible.

Looking back to last season, pre All-Star break this team was fueled by Votto and a monster first half by Rolen. Post-All-Star break this team was fueled by Votto and big second halves by Bruce and Stubbs.

Coming into this season my single biggest concern was Rolen. I could find the thread, but I said that if 2011 Scott Rolen is the 2010 post all-star Scott Rolen, this team will have a giant gap in the cleanup spot if Bruce or Stubbs cannot consistently produce like they did in the second half of 2010. Well that is pretty much what has happened this year.

brm7675
07-20-2011, 12:08 PM
If he is not anywhere the player Posey is, then I trade him for Jimenz if the Rockies want him. Mes ins't a cleanup hitter but with the options we have, he might be the best.

No you don't deal a grade A prospect for something we don't need and no you don't thrust a rookie into that kind of presure.

ryanparkersongs
07-20-2011, 12:39 PM
So why is this team struggling so bad if Walt's moves were so good. My answer is this team came into this season entirely too reliant on Scott Rolen's bat which was clearly in decline in the second half of last season

Looking back to last season, pre All-Star break this team was fueled by Votto and a monster first half by Rolen. Post-All-Star break this team was fueled by Votto and big second halves by Bruce and Stubbs.

Coming into this season my single biggest concern was Rolen. I could find the thread, but I said that if 2011 Scott Rolen is the 2010 post all-star Scott Rolen, this team will have a giant gap in the cleanup spot if Bruce or Stubbs cannot consistently produce like they did in the second half of 2010. Well that is pretty much what has happened this year.

I think this is the best analysis I've seen of why the Reds aren't as good this year. The signs were there that Rolen was finished at the end of last season. That along with the inconsistency of Stubbs and Bruce leaves a lot of holes in the lineup.

brm7675
07-20-2011, 12:41 PM
The hitting has struggled in July, that's 15 games, of which the Reds have a 5-10 record. Every month before July the Reds have led or been in the top of the the league in Runs scored. The don't have a problem scoring runs.

Did you know that in the last 15 days(remember a 5-10 record) that the pitching staff has given up 4 or more runs in 10 of those games.

This Reds team can score runs...like 9 in a game then 1, here, 2 there, 1 here, 3 there and then another game of 8, then 1 here, 3 here and so on, the stat of total runs scored is just not a stat that reflects how well a teams overall offense is going.

Girevik
07-20-2011, 12:44 PM
This Reds team can score runs...like 9 in a game then 1, here, 2 there, 1 here, 3 there and then another game of 8, then 1 here, 3 here and so on, the stat of total runs scored is just not a stat that reflects how well a teams overall offense is going.

Exactly. I keep hearing about where the Reds rank in runs scored. I'd like to see where they rank when you compare the MEDIAN runs scored for each team.

ervinsm84
07-20-2011, 01:04 PM
This Reds team can score runs...like 9 in a game then 1, here, 2 there, 1 here, 3 there and then another game of 8, then 1 here, 3 here and so on, the stat of total runs scored is just not a stat that reflects how well a teams overall offense is going.


Exactly. I keep hearing about where the Reds rank in runs scored. I'd like to see where they rank when you compare the MEDIAN runs scored for each team.


Heres a screenshot of The Reds run distribution total compared to most of the Best offenses and division leaders Run Distribution.

http://img829.imageshack.us/img829/1071/majorleaguerundistribut.jpg

texasdave
07-20-2011, 01:44 PM
Why would the Reds send a scout to see Jimenez or Shields?
Seriously. If the Reds don't know what they can do by now scouting one game isn't gonna be the difference-maker.

Girevik
07-20-2011, 01:46 PM
You've got to do your due dilligence. I know the odds are slim, but what if he's got an injury that's casused him to change his delivery or something. Not sending a guy to get eyes on him is Bengals thinking.

krm1580
07-20-2011, 03:09 PM
BRM





It's all teams are on a budget, but to think this team is restricted in getting players due to money is false. Bob has shown when needed he will spend, I mean heck he spent 30 million on an unknown, untested Chapman, the monies are there.

For starters, Chapman was not a lump sum of 30 million as you state it. It is spread out over 6 years so the year over year effect is significantly less. But since you brough it up what is the Reds payroll budget? I don't know but clearly you must since you know they are not restricted by budget.


So what, what did this team do in 2009, 2008? To think we would repeat the 2010 numbers with the same players just shows how out of touch Dusty and Walt are.

Listed below are the Baseball Reference listings of the positions by who played the majority of games.

2009 2010 2011
C Hannigan C Hernandez C Hernandez
1B Votto 1B Votto 1B Votto
2B Phillips 2B Phillips 2B Phillips
SS Janish SS Janish SS Janish
3B Rosales 3B Rolen 3B Rolen
RF Bruce RF Bruce RF Bruce
CF Taveras CF Stubbs CF Stubbs
LF Nix LF Gomes LF Gomes

Being that the 2011 is identical to the 2010 lineup I would say its a pretty safe assumption of its ability as opposed to using the 2009 lineup with garbage like Rosales and Taveras in it.

Problem is Dusty can't manage, Dusty can't platoon anything correctly and Walt should know this, and thus not even presented this possibility to Dusty.

This is the only place I would agree. Dusty Baker would be an ideal manager for a team like the Yankees or the Red Sox where he can just roll out the same line up every day. He is not a great fit on a team like the Reds.


I would challenge that Walt's moves were no where near good, in fact I would say they were pretty horrible.

I am not on board with all of Walts moves. I thought Renteria was pretty much a waste. But I am not sure what significant moves he could have made in the off season that addressed the holes on this team.

You seem to have the answers. What moves would you have made? You can use the free agents available and the minor league system. You can suggest trades but since you don't know who was available and what the cost would be its speculative at best.

Red Rover
07-20-2011, 03:54 PM
This Reds team can score runs...like 9 in a game then 1, here, 2 there, 1 here, 3 there and then another game of 8, then 1 here, 3 here and so on, the stat of total runs scored is just not a stat that reflects how well a teams overall offense is going.

What other stat do you want to use?

Reds Hitting Rank vs NL
5th in Batting Average .258
4th in OBP .328
5th in Slugging .401
5th in OPS .729

Reds Pitching Rank vs NL
14th in ERA 4.09
12th in OBP Against .321
12th in OPS Against .730

How can anyone blame the Reds record on the offense?

brm7675
07-20-2011, 04:45 PM
BRM




It's all teams are on a budget, but to think this team is restricted in getting players due to money is false. Bob has shown when needed he will spend, I mean heck he spent 30 million on an unknown, untested Chapman, the monies are there.

For starters, Chapman was not a lump sum of 30 million as you state it. It is spread out over 6 years so the year over year effect is significantly less. But since you brough it up what is the Reds payroll budget? I don't know but clearly you must since you know they are not restricted by budget.

Bob showed with that contract, the extensions he paid out this past season that he is willing to spend. Since each team gets between 80-90 million each year from MLB before the season even starts I would say the Reds budget could be easily between those amounts and still leave profit for ole Bob.


So what, what did this team do in 2009, 2008? To think we would repeat the 2010 numbers with the same players just shows how out of touch Dusty and Walt are.

Listed below are the Baseball Reference listings of the positions by who played the majority of games.

2009 2010 2011
C Hannigan C Hernandez C Hernandez
1B Votto 1B Votto 1B Votto
2B Phillips 2B Phillips 2B Phillips
SS Janish SS Janish SS Janish
3B Rosales 3B Rolen 3B Rolen
RF Bruce RF Bruce RF Bruce
CF Taveras CF Stubbs CF Stubbs
LF Nix LF Gomes LF Gomes

Being that the 2011 is identical to the 2010 lineup I would say its a pretty safe assumption of its ability as opposed to using the 2009 lineup with garbage like Rosales and Taveras in it.

Problem is Dusty can't manage, Dusty can't platoon anything correctly and Walt should know this, and thus not even presented this possibility to Dusty.

This is the only place I would agree. Dusty Baker would be an ideal manager for a team like the Yankees or the Red Sox where he can just roll out the same line up every day. He is not a great fit on a team like the Reds.


I would challenge that Walt's moves were no where near good, in fact I would say they were pretty horrible.

I am not on board with all of Walts moves. I thought Renteria was pretty much a waste. But I am not sure what significant moves he could have made in the off season that addressed the holes on this team.

You seem to have the answers. What moves would you have made? You can use the free agents available and the minor league system. You can suggest trades but since you don't know who was available and what the cost would be its speculative at best.

Well I would have not resigned Gomes, I would have told Dusty to go with Heisey in LF and see what he could do. I wouldn't have signed Edgar and instead gone with Cozart. I would have been on the phone with teams for a 3rd basemen and told Rolen he can either retire or be ready to play a more limited role. I would have put Chapman in AAA from the start to work on being a starter, and EV in AAA from teh start to work on control issues. Right now I would be on the phone to Houston and finding out what it would take to get Pence and with the Mets what it would take to get Wright. Yep I may have to shed a good deal of my farm system and some Major league talent but you add those two bats to our lineup and I think we are a completely different team.

brm7675
07-20-2011, 04:50 PM
What other stat do you want to use?

Reds Hitting Rank vs NL
5th in Batting Average .258
4th in OBP .328
5th in Slugging .401
5th in OPS .729

Reds Pitching Rank vs NL
14th in ERA 4.09
12th in OBP Against .321
12th in OPS Against .730

How can anyone blame the Reds record on the offense?

Simple look at the games, lets take this past series vs the division leaders. The starting pitcher gave up a total of 4 runs, not 4 runs per game, but 4 runs. Yet we only won 1 game. How do you explain that?

redssince75
07-20-2011, 04:50 PM
How can anyone blame the Reds record on the offense?

Because they score very very little in the games we lose, are extremely inconsistent, and are usually (today excepted) horrible with RISP.

Red Rover
07-20-2011, 04:59 PM
Simple look at the games, lets take this past series vs the division leaders. The starting pitcher gave up a total of 4 runs, not 4 runs per game, but 4 runs. Yet we only won 1 game. How do you explain that?

Small sample size. Go back the the Reds very first series of the season, if you want to pick 3 games.

brm7675
07-20-2011, 04:59 PM
In our previous 10 losses are pitching staff has given up an average of 4.4 runs per game, not great, but overall I can live with that, yet our offense has scored a whopping 1.9 runs per game. You are not going to win alot of games scoring on average of 1.9 runs per game, nor are you going to find many pitching staffs average only giving up 1.8 runs or fewer per game. In those 10 losses chalk up a bad outing to a pitcher who should not even be on the major league roster (EV) and a bad outing by a pitcher with mono. If you look at the numbers posted by Cueto/Leake and Homer it's more around 3 runs given up per game. Adding a pitcher would be great, but it's not a need, you "NEED" to address our inability to provide strong run support for our pitchers.

markymark69
07-20-2011, 05:00 PM
brm's quote
"Well I would have not resigned Gomes, I would have told Dusty to go with Heisey in LF and see what he could do. I wouldn't have signed Edgar and instead gone with Cozart. I would have been on the phone with teams for a 3rd basemen and told Rolen he can either retire or be ready to play a more limited role. I would have put Chapman in AAA from the start to work on being a starter, and EV in AAA from teh start to work on control issues. Right now I would be on the phone to Houston and finding out what it would take to get Pence and with the Mets what it would take to get Wright. Yep I may have to shed a good deal of my farm system and some Major league talent but you add those two bats to our lineup and I think we are a completely different team."


Unless I'm mistaken Gomes was already under contract and based on last year - he at least deserved a spot on the team.

At the beginning of the season it was probably too early to go with Cozart - plus you would have been mad because your boy Janish would have been sitting.

The plan was to use Chapman in the bullpen this year and maybe it is permanent. At the beginning we did not know Volquez was going to have the control issues he's had.

As far as Rolen - I think the play was for him to play less but Francisco got hurt.

I doubt Houston would trade Pence - they have to somebody left to come and watch - but if they are willing - how do know Walt hasn't called? Same with Wright - although I do not think he's available. You see how a trade works is - the other party has to be willing to deal - if they aren't then you can't make a deal - which doesn't make Walt and idiot - it just means he has try something else.

Red Rover
07-20-2011, 05:02 PM
In our previous 10 losses are pitching staff has given up an average of 4.4 runs per game, not great, but overall I can live with that, yet our offense has scored a whopping 1.9 runs per game. You are not going to win alot of games scoring on average of 1.9 runs per game, nor are you going to find many pitching staffs average only giving up 1.8 runs or fewer per game. In those 10 losses chalk up a bad outing to a pitcher who should not even be on the major league roster (EV) and a bad outing by a pitcher with mono. If you look at the numbers posted by Cueto/Leake and Homer it's more around 3 runs given up per game. Adding a pitcher would be great, but it's not a need, you "NEED" to address our inability to provide strong run support for our pitchers.

small sample again. The Reds average 4.59 runs a game on the season.

brm7675
07-20-2011, 05:03 PM
Small sample size. Go back the the Reds very first series of the season, if you want to pick 3 games.

No I am looking at 3 games we just finished against the division leading team that we can't beat and can't score runs against. You want to get back into the race to win the division you HAVE to beat this team. But instead you go out and put a whopping 3 runs up over 27 innings, what does that tell you? Meanwhile our No. 1 pitcher and No. 2 pitcher each give very good outings and give up a total of 2 runs and our retread project even gives you a good outing of just giving up 2 runs. We didn't face Holliday/Lee/Hamels, or the Giants trio or the Braves pitching staff, we faced the Pirates.

Red Rover
07-20-2011, 05:06 PM
No I am looking at 3 games we just finished against the division leading team that we can't beat and can't score runs against. You want to get back into the race to win the division you HAVE to beat this team. But instead you go out and put a whopping 3 runs up over 27 innings, what does that tell you? Meanwhile our No. 1 pitcher and No. 2 pitcher each give very good outings and give up a total of 2 runs and our retread project even gives you a good outing of just giving up 2 runs. We didn't face Holliday/Lee/Hamels, or the Giants trio or the Braves pitching staff, we faced the Pirates.

Exacally, the Reds pitchers faced the Pirates lineup. I think you could have held them to under 2 runs also. The hitting has slumped this month, it will turn around. Upgrade the pitching while you have the chance.

brm7675
07-20-2011, 05:14 PM
brm's quote
"Well I would have not resigned Gomes, I would have told Dusty to go with Heisey in LF and see what he could do. I wouldn't have signed Edgar and instead gone with Cozart. I would have been on the phone with teams for a 3rd basemen and told Rolen he can either retire or be ready to play a more limited role. I would have put Chapman in AAA from the start to work on being a starter, and EV in AAA from teh start to work on control issues. Right now I would be on the phone to Houston and finding out what it would take to get Pence and with the Mets what it would take to get Wright. Yep I may have to shed a good deal of my farm system and some Major league talent but you add those two bats to our lineup and I think we are a completely different team."


Unless I'm mistaken Gomes was already under contract and based on last year - he at least deserved a spot on the team.

I don't think he was under contract, but if he was, I cut him.

At the beginning of the season it was probably too early to go with Cozart - plus you would have been mad because your boy Janish would have been sitting.

I would have started the season with Janish as the starter and Cozart as your backup over the AARP guy we signed.

The plan was to use Chapman in the bullpen this year and maybe it is permanent. At the beginning we did not know Volquez was going to have the control issues he's had.

Anyone who watched EV last year could see he had issues. As for Chapman, again you PAID for this kid to be a starter, not a lefty specialist out of the pen. Again bad decisions on both player by those in charge.

As far as Rolen - I think the play was for him to play less but Francisco got hurt.

I am still waiting for anyone to step up and explain to me how you can see ML talent in Fransisco. He might be a nice kid, he is NOT a starting 3rd basemen in the major leagues right now and I doubt ever.

I doubt Houston would trade Pence - they have to somebody left to come and watch - but if they are willing - how do know Walt hasn't called? Same with Wright - although I do not think he's available. You see how a trade works is - the other party has to be willing to deal - if they aren't then you can't make a deal - which doesn't make Walt and idiot - it just means he has try something else.

Do you really think people are going to see the Stros to see Pence? Really? Also I am willing to give them 2 local boys (Stubbs/Homer) for him, thus you get the local boys for the fans to come cheer for, you replace Pence with Stubbs and you get another young arm for your pitching staff, not sure how that is not a fair deal?

brm7675
07-20-2011, 05:15 PM
Exacally, the Reds pitchers faced the Pirates lineup. I think you could have held them to under 2 runs also. The hitting has slumped this month, it will turn around. Upgrade the pitching while you have the chance.

They are doing something right, they are in first place and where are we? Slumped this month? It's slumped for a good portion of this season. Outside of May, exactly what has Bruce done so far this year, really remove his May numbers and where is he? How many strikeouts does Stubbs have this season? Is Votto even being pitched to? What great numbers is Rolen posting? How is Brandon's bat doing this season? Outside of our PH's numbers our hitting this season is why we are in 4th place 4 games back and not in first 4-5 games up.

texasdave
07-20-2011, 05:19 PM
Given the information above and your limited budget are you ok with a very good fielding SS that will OPS around .675-700 BATTING 8th. I would say YES.

Then why would a team on a limited budget shell out 2.1 million for a backup SS?

texasdave
07-20-2011, 05:22 PM
Again bring him, but DO NOT bat him higher then 7th or 8th.

No worries. Mesoraco is a catcher and catchers bat 8th, Dude.

Hillsdale87
07-20-2011, 05:36 PM
Hunter Pence

No way the Astros trade him inside the division. I'd love to have him, but he's not available to the Reds

brm7675
07-20-2011, 05:58 PM
No way the Astros trade him inside the division. I'd love to have him, but he's not available to the Reds

I don't buy that for a minute, if the right offer is there why woudn't they?

texasdave
07-20-2011, 06:00 PM
No way the Astros trade him inside the division. I'd love to have him, but he's not available to the Reds

If the Astros were closer to contending I could see your point. But they are years away and have a number of holes. I don't see it being a problem. They should be in stockpile young talent mode, no matter where that talent comes from.

markymark69
07-20-2011, 07:06 PM
Brm's quotes
Anyone who watched EV last year could see he had issues. As for Chapman, again you PAID for this kid to be a starter, not a lefty specialist out of the pen. Again bad decisions on both player by those in charge.

As far as Rolen - I think the play was for him to play less but Francisco got hurt.

I am still waiting for anyone to step up and explain to me how you can see ML talent in Fransisco. He might be a nice kid, he is NOT a starting 3rd basemen in the major leagues right now and I doubt ever.

I doubt Houston would trade Pence - they have to somebody left to come and watch - but if they are willing - how do know Walt hasn't called? Same with Wright - although I do not think he's available. You see how a trade works is - the other party has to be willing to deal - if they aren't then you can't make a deal - which doesn't make Walt and idiot - it just means he has try something else.

Do you really think people are going to see the Stros to see Pence? Really? Also I am willing to give them 2 local boys (Stubbs/Homer) for him, thus you get the local boys for the fans to come cheer for, you replace Pence with Stubbs and you get another young arm for your pitching staff, not sure how that is not a fair deal?

First of all I never said Francisco was ML talent - but the Reds were going to see if he could play or not.

Pence is the only stud they have - you have to have a draw. Maybe they take Stubbs and Bailey maybe they don't - you still don't know whether Walt called them or didn't.

In regards to Volquez - you do remember he was coming off Tommy John surgery lasy year? - btw he was so bad with his control last year that he had 35 walks in 62 2/3 innings. Which for a guy with a live arm coming of TJ surgery that is not that bad.

Using Chapman this year out of the bullpen doesn't mean he is destined for that - they could have a plan of using him as a closer. If he does end up starting - there is time for that.

brm7675
07-20-2011, 07:09 PM
Brm's quotes
Anyone who watched EV last year could see he had issues. As for Chapman, again you PAID for this kid to be a starter, not a lefty specialist out of the pen. Again bad decisions on both player by those in charge.

As far as Rolen - I think the play was for him to play less but Francisco got hurt.

I am still waiting for anyone to step up and explain to me how you can see ML talent in Fransisco. He might be a nice kid, he is NOT a starting 3rd basemen in the major leagues right now and I doubt ever.

I doubt Houston would trade Pence - they have to somebody left to come and watch - but if they are willing - how do know Walt hasn't called? Same with Wright - although I do not think he's available. You see how a trade works is - the other party has to be willing to deal - if they aren't then you can't make a deal - which doesn't make Walt and idiot - it just means he has try something else.

Do you really think people are going to see the Stros to see Pence? Really? Also I am willing to give them 2 local boys (Stubbs/Homer) for him, thus you get the local boys for the fans to come cheer for, you replace Pence with Stubbs and you get another young arm for your pitching staff, not sure how that is not a fair deal?

First of all I never said Francisco was ML talent - but the Reds were going to see if he could play or not.

Pence is the only stud they have - you have to have a draw. Maybe they take Stubbs and Bailey maybe they don't - you still don't know whether Walt called them or didn't.

In regards to Volquez - you do remember he was coming off Tommy John surgery lasy year? - btw he was so bad with his control last year that he had 35 walks in 62 2/3 innings.

Using Chapman this year out of the bullpen doesn't mean he is destined for that - they could have a plan of using him as a closer. If he does end up starting - there is time for that.

We would be giving the Stros two young local studs to build around. Continually wasting Chapman in the role he is being used right now is just bad baseball no matter how you look at it.

markymark69
07-20-2011, 07:14 PM
We would be giving the Stros two young local studs to build around. Continually wasting Chapman in the role he is being used right now is just bad baseball no matter how you look at it.

Just because you think it's a good deal doesn't mean Houston does. Like I said earlier - the other team has to want what you are offering or a trade doesn't work.

As far as your opinion on Chapman - I'll trust the guys with the track record (Dusty and Walt) over you.

brm7675
07-20-2011, 07:19 PM
Just because you think it's a good deal doesn't mean Houston does. Like I said earlier - the other team has to want what you are offering or a trade doesn't work.

As far as your opinion on Chapman - I'll trust the guys with the track record (Dusty and Walt) over you.

Again I call Houston, and ask them directly, what will it take to get Pence. There is zero chance the kid is unavialbe for the right offer.

As for Chapman, even a blind man can see he is being wasted. Just because Walt and Dusty have jobs doesn't mean they know what they are doing.

Hillsdale87
07-20-2011, 07:25 PM
Again I call Houston, and ask them directly, what will it take to get Pence. There is zero chance the kid is unavialbe for the right offer.

As for Chapman, even a blind man can see he is being wasted. Just because Walt and Dusty have jobs doesn't mean they know what they are doing.

Yes. Neither of these guys has any track record of success...

tkemmerer14
07-20-2011, 07:27 PM
according to buster olneys twitter page hunter pence is available for trade

Red Rover
07-21-2011, 10:30 AM
They are doing something right, they are in first place and where are we? Slumped this month? It's slumped for a good portion of this season. Outside of May, exactly what has Bruce done so far this year, really remove his May numbers and where is he? How many strikeouts does Stubbs have this season? Is Votto even being pitched to? What great numbers is Rolen posting? How is Brandon's bat doing this season? Outside of our PH's numbers our hitting this season is why we are in 4th place 4 games back and not in first 4-5 games up.

What they are doing right is pitching, which the Reds haven't gotten until recently.

Is there anyone in the Reds lineup that you wouldn't replace? Thats pretty much the whole team.

Red Rover
07-21-2011, 11:06 AM
Interesting look using the 4 run scored/allowed

57% of the games played this year the offense has scored 4 or more runs
54% of the games played this year the pitching has given up 4 or more runs

berryluther
07-21-2011, 11:32 AM
If I am Walt MES is the only untouchable. We as fans always over value our own prospects. I give TB Alonso, Wood, Volquez and either Francisco or Fraizer for Shields.

Then I give Grandal to Mets for Beltran if the Mets pay his salary. I know its a rental and Grandal is a big time prospect but with the development of Mes I just don't see him being anything more than Alonso #2.

krm1580
07-21-2011, 12:10 PM
Well I would have not resigned Gomes, I would have told Dusty to go with Heisey in LF and see what he could do. I wouldn't have signed Edgar and instead gone with Cozart. I would have been on the phone with teams for a 3rd basemen and told Rolen he can either retire or be ready to play a more limited role. I would have put Chapman in AAA from the start to work on being a starter, and EV in AAA from teh start to work on control issues. Right now I would be on the phone to Houston and finding out what it would take to get Pence and with the Mets what it would take to get Wright. Yep I may have to shed a good deal of my farm system and some Major league talent but you add those two bats to our lineup and I think we are a completely different team.

So your solution is to fix the Reds in their current configuration is:

Add Janish
Subtract Gomes, Renteria and Chapman to the minors

Bounce the payroll by an additional 22 million dollars to pick up David Wright and soon to be a free agent Hunter Pence, assuming of course you are able to do a deal to get them.

I am sorry I asked.