PDA

View Full Version : Big Game James?



cinreds21
07-20-2011, 04:20 PM
Buster Onley:

Among the pitchers that the Reds are targeting: TB's James Shields. This could be why TB scouts evaluating CIN minor leaguers this week.

The Reds and TB matches up perfectly. More so than for Jimenez.
Yonder, Grandal and a third player if necessary.

reds44
07-20-2011, 04:22 PM
That's a very logical landing spot for Yonder.

SirFelixCat
07-20-2011, 04:22 PM
Sure wouldn't mind seeing Shields in a Reds uni for a long time. :thumbup: And if that means we can keep Mes, I'm all for it.

reds1869
07-20-2011, 04:23 PM
Shields would be a great addition to the staff.

OesterPoster
07-20-2011, 04:26 PM
Maybe we could swap Jonny Gomes for Johnny Damon while we're at it. :)

reds44
07-20-2011, 04:27 PM
Buster Onley:


The Reds and TB matches up perfectly. More so than for Jimenez.
Yonder, Grandal and a third player if necessary.
Then flip Volquez or Wood for Beltran.

Championship.

Superdude
07-20-2011, 04:27 PM
What's Shields' contract situation? Would love to see him at the top of the rotation.

Caveat Emperor
07-20-2011, 04:27 PM
I like Shields a lot -- with an xFIP of 3.65 for his career (2.91 this season) and good K numbers in the AL East, he seems like a prime candidate to benefit from the league-switch and the top-flight defense he'd have backing him in Cincinnati.

Additionally, he's under a pretty reasonable contract for the next 3 seasons.

If you can get him for a deal with Yonder Alonso as a centerpiece, that's a pretty big no-brainer to me.

cinreds21
07-20-2011, 04:29 PM
What's Shields' contract situation? Would love to see him at the top of the rotation.

James Shields' contract:


01/23/08: Signed four-year, $11.25 million extension w/ 2012-14 club options.
2009: $1.5 million.
2010: $2.5 million.
2011: $4.25 million.
2012: $7.0 million club option w/ $2.0 million buyout.
2013: $9.0 million club option w/ $2.0 million buyout.
2014: $12.0 million club option w/ $2.0 million buyout.
2015: Free Agent

reds44
07-20-2011, 04:30 PM
3/28 for a pitcher of his caliber is nothing.

cinreds21
07-20-2011, 04:30 PM
I don't know if the Rays would want Volquez. I'm not sure why exactly they would want to trade Shields in the first place, but I'd assume it's because of money. If that's the case, then they likely would not want Volquez, who's arbitration eligible.

LvJ
07-20-2011, 04:30 PM
If only good things happen.

Caveat Emperor
07-20-2011, 04:31 PM
James Shields' contract:

It's tremendously team-friendly, considering they can bail on the deal at any point during the course of the next 3 years.

Superdude
07-20-2011, 04:33 PM
I didn't know he was signed for three more years. If we can nab Shields for a package built around Alonso, Walt deserves a gold medal and then some.

cinreds21
07-20-2011, 04:34 PM
Yonder, Grandal, Box? If Francisco was healthy, I'm sure they'd want him (as a DH)

reds44
07-20-2011, 04:36 PM
Yonder, Grandal, Box? If Francisco was healthy, I'm sure they'd want him (as a DH)
That's a lot. That's about the best offer the Reds could make for anyone without having Mesoraco in it. I'm not saying I wouldn't do it, but if i that's the package it won't get done until the last minute.

Puffy
07-20-2011, 04:37 PM
Sign me up for Shields.

traderumor
07-20-2011, 04:38 PM
Why do the Rays want to trade Shields? I know their offense is anemic, but their pitching depth in the rotation does not seem deep enough to take prospects for what is for all intents and purposes their best starter? This rumor doesn't make any sense for TB on the surface.

klw
07-20-2011, 04:39 PM
Why do the Rays want to trade Shields? I know their offense is anemic, but their pitching depth in the rotation does not seem deep enough to take prospects for what is for all intents and purposes their best starter? This rumor doesn't make any sense for TB on the surface.

They are in a budget slashing mode again and have more good pitching prospects on the way they can work into the rotation.

Caveat Emperor
07-20-2011, 04:39 PM
That's a lot. That's about the best offer the Reds could make for anyone without having Mesoraco in it. I'm not saying I wouldn't do it, but if i that's the package it won't get done until the last minute.

2 CI prospects, an RP prospect and a AA catching prospect (when you already have a stud-C prospect one level above him) is peanuts to the Reds. Sign me up.

hebroncougar
07-20-2011, 04:40 PM
Rays need hitting. I start with Alonso, and Grandal. That and a marginal prospect I would think would get it done. Those are two darn good prospects, and I doubt the Rays are going to pick up all those options on Shields, with the youth they have in pitching.

hebroncougar
07-20-2011, 04:41 PM
Why do the Rays want to trade Shields? I know their offense is anemic, but their pitching depth in the rotation does not seem deep enough to take prospects for what is for all intents and purposes their best starter? This rumor doesn't make any sense for TB on the surface.

Rays have pitching out the wazoo. Alex Cobb is busting at the door in AAA. Their attendance is awful, and they shed salary like crazy.

blumj
07-20-2011, 04:42 PM
They are in a budget slashing mode again and have more good pitching prospects on the way they can work into the rotation.
Even they can afford to pay him a while longer with that contract. They'd have to get a huge return to do it now.

cinreds21
07-20-2011, 04:42 PM
Rays have pitching out the wazoo. Alex Cobb is busting at the door in AAA. Their attendance is awful, and they shed salary like crazy.

And Matt Moore was just promoted to Triple-A from Montgomery.

Superdude
07-20-2011, 04:43 PM
Why do the Rays want to trade Shields? I know their offense is anemic, but their pitching depth in the rotation does not seem deep enough to take prospects for what is for all intents and purposes their best starter? This rumor doesn't make any sense for TB on the surface.

Maybe punting this season? They've got a nice stable of young pitchers and supposedly the best pitching prospect in the game according to Baseball Prospectus, so filling the hole at first base may be too good to pass up on? At least I hope.

LvJ
07-20-2011, 04:44 PM
Alex Cobb + Matt Moore = Insane.

cinreds21
07-20-2011, 04:57 PM
Let's just do a comparison. The Rays traded Matt Garza, Fernando Perez and pitcher Zachary Rosscup. In return, the Rays received pitcher Chris Archer (number one prospect for Cubs), short stop Hak-Ju Lee (4), outfielder Brandon Guyer (10), catcher Robinson Chirinos (16) and outfielder Sam Fuld (not a prospect)

TRF
07-20-2011, 05:14 PM
I don't know if the Rays would want Volquez. I'm not sure why exactly they would want to trade Shields in the first place, but I'd assume it's because of money. If that's the case, then they likely would not want Volquez, who's arbitration eligible.

He may be arb. eligible, but spending a chunk of time at AAA ain't gonna help his case. I doubt he asks for much, and if he did, I doubt he'd get it.

The Voice of IH
07-20-2011, 05:29 PM
I like Shields a ton also! But I hope the Reds replace Arroyo with him and no one else!

BearcatShane
07-20-2011, 05:30 PM
Would you rather have Ubaldo who has the rest of 2011 left on his deal plus two more years and have to give up Mesoraco or would you rather have Shields who is signed an extra year and you get to keep Mesoraco? The answer is easy.

Tom Servo
07-20-2011, 05:35 PM
Do it, Walt.

nemesis
07-20-2011, 05:45 PM
I think a package like...

Alonso, Sappelt/Heisey and Corcino should get it done.

No need to give up Grandal or Mesoraco.

Guacarock
07-20-2011, 06:09 PM
Would you rather have Ubaldo who has the rest of 2011 left on his deal plus two more years and have to give up Mesoraco or would you rather have Shields who is signed an extra year and you get to keep Mesoraco? The answer is easy.

That's a fact, Jack. Would like Ubaldo but would be much more inclined to snag Shields -- especially if it means we keep Mesoraco in the fold.

Would hate to see the Reds deal off the best catching prospect to come out of our farm pipeline since Johnny Bench. Just wouldn't sit well with me. If we're going to move a catcher -- and we do have a surplus there -- make it Hernandez, Hanigan or Grandal.

The Voice of IH
07-20-2011, 06:15 PM
Lets not forget though, Shields is NOT a Cliff Lee. There is no reason why we should have to trade two #1 draft picks for the guy.

and Alonso, Sappelt/Frazier and a lower prospect should get the job done.

Superdude
07-20-2011, 06:34 PM
Lets not forget though, Shields is NOT a Cliff Lee. There is no reason why we should have to trade two #1 draft picks for the guy.

and Alonso, Sappelt/Frazier and a lower prospect should get the job done.

We're trading for three and a half years of an ace caliber pitcher. He's maybe not quite Cliff Lee, but he does have a 2.60ERA in the toughest division in baseball. They're not gonna give him away.

alexad
07-20-2011, 08:26 PM
There are some concerned about Votto leaving 3 years from now. By then Alonso will be a career AAA PLAYER. Trade him now to get what we need. The same for Grandal. Mes is the future catcher. Back up Catchers are all around. Use the two biggest chips we have for bon a fide major league players.

If we start winning. Votto will stay past this contract. The time is now to start using the surplus of minor league talent and keep this engine running.

If the Reds can get the pieces with good contracts to win again this year, those minor league players are not playing next year with the exception of Mes and Fraizer and maybe Sap. And put the Reds in line to keep winning divisions.

If Walt makes the right moves at the deadline he could actually put the Reds in a position to win over the next 3 seasons and win a World Series in that time for Cincinnati.

dougdirt
07-20-2011, 08:51 PM
There are some concerned about Votto leaving 3 years from now. By then Alonso will be a career AAA PLAYER. Trade him now to get what we need. The same for Grandal. Mes is the future catcher. Back up Catchers are all around. Use the two biggest chips we have for bon a fide major league players.

If we start winning. Votto will stay past this contract. The time is now to start using the surplus of minor league talent and keep this engine running.
Alonso only becomes a career AAA player if he doesn't have talent. The Reds could start him in left field tomorrow without doing anything at all with Votto. As for Votto staying.... I think you are absolutely dreaming here. Votto has shown zero willingness to talk about staying here beyond the time he is required to. There is a reason for that.

I am not against trading Alonso, but by holding onto him it doesn't mean he turns into a AAA lifer.

Screwball
07-20-2011, 08:53 PM
Then flip Volquez or Wood for Beltran.

Championship.

That's only if we add Houshmanzilla.

REDblooded
07-20-2011, 09:13 PM
Alonso only becomes a career AAA player if he doesn't have talent. The Reds could start him in left field tomorrow without doing anything at all with Votto. As for Votto staying.... I think you are absolutely dreaming here. Votto has shown zero willingness to talk about staying here beyond the time he is required to. There is a reason for that.

I am not against trading Alonso, but by holding onto him it doesn't mean he turns into a AAA lifer.


Howard didn't hit the majors until Thome was gone... He was 25...

Growing semi-old in the minors just to step in and replace a star while learning the nuances of hitting isn't always a terrible thing...

kaldaniels
07-20-2011, 09:59 PM
Alonso only becomes a career AAA player if he doesn't have talent. The Reds could start him in left field tomorrow without doing anything at all with Votto. As for Votto staying.... I think you are absolutely dreaming here. Votto has shown zero willingness to talk about staying here beyond the time he is required to. There is a reason for that.

I am not against trading Alonso, but by holding onto him it doesn't mean he turns into a AAA lifer.

I agree on that. Now surely new circumstances could arise, but the Reds need to make every decision from here on assuming that Votto is going to leave after '13.

alexad
07-20-2011, 10:38 PM
Votto has no reason to say he wants to be a Red for life. I am not sure you can find a player say that in today's game. What I meant about Alonso is as long as Votto is here Alonso is blocked. So trade him for a player that is already in the majors and has a good contract for the next few years.

mth123
07-20-2011, 10:45 PM
I agree on that. Now surely new circumstances could arise, but the Reds need to make every decision from here on assuming that Votto is going to leave after '13.

IMO that means going all in to win it all before then.

Kc61
07-20-2011, 11:11 PM
I think some of the "offers" for Shields in this thread underestimate the Rays' possible demands.

I think it would take Alonso, Grandal, and Boxberger.

It might even take more.

The Rays don't have to trade Shields, and there would be other bidders. They are not giving him away.

REDblooded
07-20-2011, 11:24 PM
I think some of the "offers" for Shields in this thread underestimate the Rays' possible demands.

I think it would take Alonso, Grandal, and Boxberger.

It might even take more.

The Rays don't have to trade Shields, and there would be other bidders. They are not giving him away.


I agree... Just because they have options to replace him doesn't mean they have to give him away...

A cheaper option on the same team (though not locked up past this season) might be Jeff Niemann... Severely underrated, and when he's healthy he's very solid...

Could you go after a Niemann at a lower cost and save enough of your farm to gain a Jimenez or even Ludwick?

camisadelgolf
07-21-2011, 12:52 AM
Are we overrating Shields? He's a good pitcher, but I get the feeling that he might not be as good as some of us think. His ERA is almost a full run better than it was in even his best year, so is he in line for some regression? It's also important to keep in mind that last year, he led the AL in earned runs and home runs allowed. His ERA+ since 2009 is 97, which is slightly below average (he has also had a losing W/L record during that span). Don't get me wrong--I think he's a very good pitcher--but how good do you think he really is? And for what it's worth--which might be nothing at all--he has always been a better first-half performer than second-half performer.

Superdude
07-21-2011, 02:48 AM
Are we overrating Shields? He's a good pitcher, but I get the feeling that he might not be as good as some of us think. His ERA is almost a full run better than it was in even his best year, so is he in line for some regression? It's also important to keep in mind that last year, he led the AL in earned runs and home runs allowed. His ERA+ since 2009 is 97, which is slightly below average (he has also had a losing W/L record during that span). Don't get me wrong--I think he's a very good pitcher--but how good do you think he really is? And for what it's worth--which might be nothing at all--he has always been a better first-half performer than second-half performer.

Last year his HR/FB and BABIP were super out of whack for how many innings he pitched. As long a he keeps pitching like he has for the last 148 innings, Shields is a top shelf ace. There's nothing in his numbers indicating that any serious regression is in order.

_Sir_Charles_
07-21-2011, 11:46 AM
Shields is throwing great this year, but this would be a great example of buying HIGH. He's having a career year...not a great time to overpay for someone likely to regress rather heavily.

Don't get me wrong...I like him. I just don't want to overpay to get him. And right now...we're bound to overpay. Which is exactly why the Rays might be dangling him. Sell high.

Caveat Emperor
07-21-2011, 12:15 PM
Shields is throwing great this year, but this would be a great example of buying HIGH. He's having a career year...not a great time to overpay for someone likely to regress rather heavily.

Except his xFIP and K/9 have always been strong. As someone pointed out, his BABIP last year was .341 -- which led to the artificially inflated ERA despite the quality xFIP of 3.55 (right in line with his career average of 3.65).

This year, he's still striking out batters (8.8 K/9, up slightly from the 8.25 K/9 last year), but he's getting better luck on his balls in play and that's leading to the lower ERA. His xFIP? A stellar 2.91.

Bottom line is this -- move James Shields to the NL (no DH) out of the AL East (no BOS, TOR and NYY series) and put him in front of the Cincinnati Reds defense (one of the top in all of baseball in UZR/150 last I checked), and I think you can easily project him to outpitch his contract and provide exceptional value to the Reds as long as he can stay healthy.

Shields is about as no-brainer an acquisition as you can get. In fact, I almost prefer him to Jimenez given the projected cost to acquire both.

IslandRed
07-21-2011, 12:37 PM
Bottom line is this -- move James Shields to the NL (no DH) out of the AL East (no BOS, TOR and NYY series) and put him in front of the Cincinnati Reds defense (one of the top in all of baseball in UZR/150 last I checked), and I think you can easily project him to outpitch his contract and provide exceptional value to the Reds as long as he can stay healthy.

Shields is about as no-brainer an acquisition as you can get. In fact, I almost prefer him to Jimenez given the projected cost to acquire both.

On the same page with you here.

Caveat Emperor
07-21-2011, 12:51 PM
I was talking with a couple friends about this deal last night -- the Rays, constantly payroll strapped as they are, seem like a team you can overload with quantity vs. quality.

Whereas Colorado doesn't need to trade Jimenez right now, the Rays kinda do need to trade guys like Shields as part of the natural churn they go through with players to keep their team young, cheap and competitive.

As such, I think a lot of people are overvaluing what it would take to get him. I honestly think a deal that includes one "centerpiece" prospect (Alonso or Grandal), and 2-3 "B" prospects (Valaika, Francisco, Frazier, Sappelt, etc.) -- maybe a Heisey or a Wood as well if they want a cheap MLer in return -- gets the deal done. You replace "wow" factor with a lot of players who project to be quality, if unspectacular, major leaguers.

I absolutely don't think the Reds need to send Mesoraco for this to happen, and I don't think they need to send both Yas and Yonder to make it happen either.

nemesis
07-21-2011, 12:56 PM
Agrees. The Rays want capible ML ready bodies. Alonso, Heisey and Fisher should get them to swing it.

Shields strikes me as a Curt Schilling type. He will get better over the next 5 years vs regress.

Homer Bailey
07-21-2011, 01:02 PM
Except his xFIP and K/9 have always been strong. As someone pointed out, his BABIP last year was .341 -- which led to the artificially inflated ERA despite the quality xFIP of 3.55 (right in line with his career average of 3.65).

This year, he's still striking out batters (8.8 K/9, up slightly from the 8.25 K/9 last year), but he's getting better luck on his balls in play and that's leading to the lower ERA. His xFIP? A stellar 2.91.

Bottom line is this -- move James Shields to the NL (no DH) out of the AL East (no BOS, TOR and NYY series) and put him in front of the Cincinnati Reds defense (one of the top in all of baseball in UZR/150 last I checked), and I think you can easily project him to outpitch his contract and provide exceptional value to the Reds as long as he can stay healthy.

Shields is about as no-brainer an acquisition as you can get. In fact, I almost prefer him to Jimenez given the projected cost to acquire both.

Spot on.

Mario-Rijo
07-21-2011, 02:06 PM
Except his xFIP and K/9 have always been strong. As someone pointed out, his BABIP last year was .341 -- which led to the artificially inflated ERA despite the quality xFIP of 3.55 (right in line with his career average of 3.65).

This year, he's still striking out batters (8.8 K/9, up slightly from the 8.25 K/9 last year), but he's getting better luck on his balls in play and that's leading to the lower ERA. His xFIP? A stellar 2.91.

Bottom line is this -- move James Shields to the NL (no DH) out of the AL East (no BOS, TOR and NYY series) and put him in front of the Cincinnati Reds defense (one of the top in all of baseball in UZR/150 last I checked), and I think you can easily project him to outpitch his contract and provide exceptional value to the Reds as long as he can stay healthy.

Shields is about as no-brainer an acquisition as you can get. In fact, I almost prefer him to Jimenez given the projected cost to acquire both.

I hadn't delved this deep, seems like a wise move now. Good analysis.

Mario-Rijo
07-21-2011, 02:17 PM
I was talking with a couple friends about this deal last night -- the Rays, constantly payroll strapped as they are, seem like a team you can overload with quantity vs. quality.

Whereas Colorado doesn't need to trade Jimenez right now, the Rays kinda do need to trade guys like Shields as part of the natural churn they go through with players to keep their team young, cheap and competitive.

As such, I think a lot of people are overvaluing what it would take to get him. I honestly think a deal that includes one "centerpiece" prospect (Alonso or Grandal), and 2-3 "B" prospects (Valaika, Francisco, Frazier, Sappelt, etc.) -- maybe a Heisey or a Wood as well if they want a cheap MLer in return -- gets the deal done. You replace "wow" factor with a lot of players who project to be quality, if unspectacular, major leaguers.

I absolutely don't think the Reds need to send Mesoraco for this to happen, and I don't think they need to send both Yas and Yonder to make it happen either.

This I don't agree with as much. Don't ya think The Yankees could and would do better with Montero plus (and very well might), they no doubt can see his value if you or I can. St. Louis as well with Rasmus and Shelby Miller. Maybe the Cards don't think they can afford (or maybe they can who really knows) but the Yankees and a few others would no doubt be all over him. I'd think it would take at least 2 young cheap centerpieces. I think they know it and I think they are putting him out there now much like the Rockies and Ubaldo. I think they know they do eventually have to deal him but not really just yet, they can wait if they are underwhelmed by the offers. So if he is as good a value as you say and right now they match up pretty well with us let's go ahead and overwhelm them.

Grandal, Alonso, Boxberger or Joseph and Francisco/Frazier/Valaika/anyone not on the 25 man, Mes or Wood (guys along with Sappelt I'd prefer to keep myself).

_Sir_Charles_
07-21-2011, 02:22 PM
Except his xFIP and K/9 have always been strong. As someone pointed out, his BABIP last year was .341 -- which led to the artificially inflated ERA despite the quality xFIP of 3.55 (right in line with his career average of 3.65).

This year, he's still striking out batters (8.8 K/9, up slightly from the 8.25 K/9 last year), but he's getting better luck on his balls in play and that's leading to the lower ERA. His xFIP? A stellar 2.91.

Bottom line is this -- move James Shields to the NL (no DH) out of the AL East (no BOS, TOR and NYY series) and put him in front of the Cincinnati Reds defense (one of the top in all of baseball in UZR/150 last I checked), and I think you can easily project him to outpitch his contract and provide exceptional value to the Reds as long as he can stay healthy.

Shields is about as no-brainer an acquisition as you can get. In fact, I almost prefer him to Jimenez given the projected cost to acquire both.

I'm not disagreeing with any of that. But what I'm saying is that he's putting up career high numbers right now. Numbers that the average fan looks at that is. Not FIP, xFIP, BABIP...the average fan doesn't know those. They know W/L, ERA, K, BB...the basics. And right now, he's well above his norm in those categories. Therefore I think he'll require more to get him right now. I'm not talking about how he'll perform over the life of his contract. I think he'll do great in that regard. I also think he'll improve going to the NL substantially (not as big as most AL pitchers get due to GABP). But the bottom line is, right now we'd be getting him at his most costly in terms of what it'll take to snag him. I'm all for getting him if we can...but not overpaying in order to do it.

And while his saber numbers have remained steady...we should expect a regression to his normal stats. At least back to his career norms and then a bump for going to the NL. Just not to the extreme that he's putting up this season. Just my opinion.

wolfboy
07-21-2011, 03:17 PM
This I don't agree with as much. Don't ya think The Yankees could and would do better with Montero plus (and very well might), they no doubt can see his value if you or I can. St. Louis as well with Rasmus and Shelby Miller. Maybe the Cards don't think they can afford (or maybe they can who really knows) but the Yankees and a few others would no doubt be all over him. I'd think it would take at least 2 young cheap centerpieces. I think they know it and I think they are putting him out there now much like the Rockies and Ubaldo. I think they know they do eventually have to deal him but not really just yet, they can wait if they are underwhelmed by the offers. So if he is as good a value as you say and right now they match up pretty well with us let's go ahead and overwhelm them.

Grandal, Alonso, Boxberger or Joseph and Francisco/Frazier/Valaika/anyone not on the 25 man, Mes or Wood (guys along with Sappelt I'd prefer to keep myself).

The Yankees would have to pay a very high premium to get Tampa to trade Shields within the division.

Superdude
07-21-2011, 03:19 PM
I'm not disagreeing with any of that. But what I'm saying is that he's putting up career high numbers right now. Numbers that the average fan looks at that is. Not FIP, xFIP, BABIP...the average fan doesn't know those. They know W/L, ERA, K, BB...the basics. And right now, he's well above his norm in those categories. Therefore I think he'll require more to get him right now. I'm not talking about how he'll perform over the life of his contract. I think he'll do great in that regard. I also think he'll improve going to the NL substantially (not as big as most AL pitchers get due to GABP). But the bottom line is, right now we'd be getting him at his most costly in terms of what it'll take to snag him. I'm all for getting him if we can...but not overpaying in order to do it.

Now's not the time for buying low if we're trying to sneak into the playoffs this year. Shields may cost us a bit more, but I'd be willing to part with another prospect or two for a relatively safe bet as opposed to a potential klunker like Jimenez.


And while his saber numbers have remained steady...we should expect a regression to his normal stats. At least back to his career norms and then a bump for going to the NL. Just not to the extreme that he's putting up this season. Just my opinion.

Why should we expect a regression to his career norms? I haven't watched the guy pitch, but everything in his numbers points towards a legitimate improvement as opposed to luck. Unless Shields becomes a worse pitcher overnight for no reason, I don't see why we should expect him to automatically revert back to what he was two and three years ago.

nate
07-21-2011, 03:27 PM
I'm not disagreeing with any of that. But what I'm saying is that he's putting up career high numbers right now. Numbers that the average fan looks at that is. Not FIP, xFIP, BABIP...the average fan doesn't know those. They know W/L, ERA, K, BB...the basics. And right now, he's well above his norm in those categories. Therefore I think he'll require more to get him right now.

They average baseball fan isn't making the deal. Walt is and I'm pretty sure he looks a lot deeper than "the basics."


And while his saber numbers have remained steady...

Have they?


we should expect a regression to his normal stats.

Why? What's normal?

nate
07-21-2011, 03:27 PM
Except his xFIP and K/9 have always been strong. As someone pointed out, his BABIP last year was .341 -- which led to the artificially inflated ERA despite the quality xFIP of 3.55 (right in line with his career average of 3.65).

This year, he's still striking out batters (8.8 K/9, up slightly from the 8.25 K/9 last year), but he's getting better luck on his balls in play and that's leading to the lower ERA. His xFIP? A stellar 2.91.

Bottom line is this -- move James Shields to the NL (no DH) out of the AL East (no BOS, TOR and NYY series) and put him in front of the Cincinnati Reds defense (one of the top in all of baseball in UZR/150 last I checked), and I think you can easily project him to outpitch his contract and provide exceptional value to the Reds as long as he can stay healthy.

Shields is about as no-brainer an acquisition as you can get. In fact, I almost prefer him to Jimenez given the projected cost to acquire both.

Word. High five.

Kc61
07-21-2011, 03:33 PM
Grandal, Alonso, Boxberger or Joseph and Francisco/Frazier/Valaika/anyone not on the 25 man, Mes or Wood (guys along with Sappelt I'd prefer to keep myself).

Hopefully the Reds could get James for Grandal, Alonso, Boxberger and a lesser prospect. I thought Janish might interest the Rays who stress defense traditionally.

As I said earlier, don't assume he will come cheap. The Rays could easily ask for more (more quality, not more quantity).

Question: If you were the Rays would you trade Shields without getting a single decent major league player in return?

westofyou
07-21-2011, 03:36 PM
Why? What's normal?

http://www.nokiaphoneblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/weirdest_clip1.jpg

Caveat Emperor
07-21-2011, 03:56 PM
Question: If you were the Rays would you trade Shields without getting a single decent major league player in return?

Because the Rays only can remain competitive if they successfully churn their roster -- turning 1 good/great player into 3-4 good players.

You appeal to a team like the Rays in this way: Giving them a potential future solid major leaguer (with all-star upside potential) in Alonso or Grandal, and then giving them 2-3 guys who could fill out spots on the 25 man at league minimum for 3 years and lower cost for 3 years more.

Guys like Todd Frazier, Juan Francisco and Chris Valaika -- who could step in and play within a year at low-cost -- are incredibly valuable to teams like Tampa.

This is where the Reds can really win a deal with Tampa: giving them guys who are young, cheap, and have no real spot in the Reds short or long-term plans. The Reds can lose some combination of Alonso, Frazier, Francisco, Wood, Heisey or Valaika without it being a blip on the radar screen while the Rays shed salary and acquire 4-5 guys who could all be on the 25-man and contributing at low-cost in 2012.

Win-Win.

dsmith421
07-21-2011, 04:23 PM
Shields is about as no-brainer an acquisition as you can get. In fact, I almost prefer him to Jimenez given the projected cost to acquire both.

Yes. Also, the Rays have a high OBP, proven leadoff hitting left fielder they are looking to unload. I think there's a real opportunity for a deal here.

Scrap Irony
07-21-2011, 07:58 PM
I think, if the Reds get Shields, almost everyone is going to be shocked with how much talent it will take.

Tampa is going to ask for, IMO, low level uber-talent and upper level B prospects plus a major league regular.

It wouldn't surprise me if it took Stubbs, Grandal, Alonso, Yonder/ Hamilton, Janish, and a Francisco/ Frazier to get it done.

(That said, I'd do that deal in a minute.)

Captain Hook
07-21-2011, 08:22 PM
Because the Rays only can remain competitive if they successfully churn their roster -- turning 1 good/great player into 3-4 good players.

You appeal to a team like the Rays in this way: Giving them a potential future solid major leaguer (with all-star upside potential) in Alonso or Grandal, and then giving them 2-3 guys who could fill out spots on the 25 man at league minimum for 3 years and lower cost for 3 years more.

Guys like Todd Frazier, Juan Francisco and Chris Valaika -- who could step in and play within a year at low-cost -- are incredibly valuable to teams like Tampa.

This is where the Reds can really win a deal with Tampa: giving them guys who are young, cheap, and have no real spot in the Reds short or long-term plans. The Reds can lose some combination of Alonso, Frazier, Francisco, Wood, Heisey or Valaika without it being a blip on the radar screen while the Rays shed salary and acquire 4-5 guys who could all be on the 25-man and contributing at low-cost in 2012.

Win-Win.

If I were Walt I'd make it a priority to remain on good terms with TB and their GM.

LoganBuck
07-21-2011, 09:10 PM
I think, if the Reds get Shields, almost everyone is going to be shocked with how much talent it will take.

Tampa is going to ask for, IMO, low level uber-talent and upper level B prospects plus a major league regular.

It wouldn't surprise me if it took Stubbs, Grandal, Alonso, Yonder/ Hamilton, Janish, and a Francisco/ Frazier to get it done.

(That said, I'd do that deal in a minute.)

Who was the last player worth six other players in a trade?

traderumor
07-21-2011, 09:15 PM
Who was the last player worth six other players in a trade?
Not only 6 players, but basically all of the other team's top prospects? The last one I remember even similar was when Cleveland committed assault on the MLB-owned Expos in the Colon deal.

IslandRed
07-21-2011, 09:34 PM
Right. I mean, when you're expecting to be contracted at the end of the season like the Expos were, may as well let the other team back up the truck, but I doubt this is the last trade the Reds will need to make for the next two years.

Blitz Dorsey
07-21-2011, 11:01 PM
More B.S. trade talk. Why in the world would the Rays want to trade a guy like Shields who is pitching lights-out, has a very-favorable contract and is a personal favorite of their manager? This is a classic case of people not doing their homework. The Rays are not going to actually trade Shields unless someone wants to grossly overpay for him.

Brutus
07-21-2011, 11:15 PM
More B.S. trade talk. Why in the world would the Rays want to trade a guy like Shields who is pitching lights-out, has a very-favorable contract and is a personal favorite of their manager? This is a classic case of people not doing their homework. The Rays are not going to actually trade Shields unless someone wants to grossly overpay for him.

Because as hard as it is to believe, they're so pinched for money right now, even his contract is more than they want to pay anyone right now.

Their attendance has been brutal, and they're not making much from their local media contracts. While they're not proverty-stricken, they are keeping a very close eye on every penny they spend. So while Shields' contract isn't terribly expensive, they'll unload it if they get even a decent return.

HotCorner
07-21-2011, 11:17 PM
More B.S. trade talk. Why in the world would the Rays want to trade a guy like Shields who is pitching lights-out, has a very-favorable contract and is a personal favorite of their manager? This is a classic case of people not doing their homework. The Rays are not going to actually trade Shields unless someone wants to grossly overpay for him.

Because they are loaded with starting pitching prospects (Moore and Cobb) and in need of offensive prospects (maybe Alonso or Grandal).

IslandRed
07-21-2011, 11:18 PM
The Rays are not going to actually trade Shields unless someone wants to grossly overpay for him.

I agree with that.

But then, if there's ever been a time when the Reds could afford to lose a trade by a little bit to get exactly what they need, this is it. As long as it's still within the realm of reason and not just letting the other team take everything they want, mind you.

Tom Servo
07-21-2011, 11:22 PM
The Rays would trade Shields for the same reason the Marlins have traded every young star they've had in the last 10 years( Hanley Ramirez being the only exception).

reds44
07-22-2011, 12:39 PM
Buster_ESPN

If the Rays-Reds make any progress on Shields talk, you would have to believe that C Devin Mesoraco would be possible focus for TB.

Caveat Emperor
07-22-2011, 01:08 PM
Buster_ESPN

If the Rays-Reds make any progress on Shields talk, you would have to believe that C Devin Mesoraco would be possible focus for TB.

Or, it's what ended the conversation.

Blitz Dorsey
07-22-2011, 01:14 PM
Seriously, I would love to be wrong on this, but it just stinks of BS. The Rays are basically proving my theory correct (they will only trade Shields if a team overpays in a trade) by saying Mesoraco has to be included in the deal. Not only is Mes the Reds' top prospect, he's considered one of the top 10 overall prospects in all of baseball and the #1 catching prospect. Plus, the Rays would probably want even more than that; maybe another 1-2 players included in the deal.

So, Shields-to-Cincy just isn't going to happen IMO. I would love to be wrong. And maybe I'm just jaded because EVERY time there is talk about the Reds trading for a big-time starting pitcher, it turns out to be a complete air biscuit.

klw
07-22-2011, 01:18 PM
Actually the Olney Tweet just sounds like it is Olney speculating on what Tampa would ask for and not any indication of what is actually being discussed, if anything is being discussed.

Will M
07-22-2011, 01:37 PM
if TB wants a catcher then the Reds could offer a list of PTBNLs that includes Grandal & a bunch of not so great prospects. then after August 15th (i am not sure of the exact date) Grandal can officially be the PTBNL.

for me Mes is the only guy not on the 25 man roster that is untradable.

Personally its starting to annoy me that every time the Reds try to make a deal the opposition asks for the moon. then turns around and trades the player to another team for a bunch of B & C prospects.

Mario-Rijo
07-22-2011, 04:18 PM
Seriously, I would love to be wrong on this, but it just stinks of BS. The Rays are basically proving my theory correct (they will only trade Shields if a team overpays in a trade) by saying Mesoraco has to be included in the deal. Not only is Mes the Reds' top prospect, he's considered one of the top 10 overall prospects in all of baseball and the #1 catching prospect. Plus, the Rays would probably want even more than that; maybe another 1-2 players included in the deal.

So, Shields-to-Cincy just isn't going to happen IMO. I would love to be wrong. And maybe I'm just jaded because EVERY time there is talk about the Reds trading for a big-time starting pitcher, it turns out to be a complete air biscuit.

Don't bet on it, Walt was willing to part with Mes this time last year. The only thing he has really proved since then is he can be reasonably consistent at being solid. And Walt is a big believer in paying a fair price for what he gets, ugh.

kbrake
07-22-2011, 04:22 PM
When did we find out what the offer to Seattle was?

Reds/Flyers Fan
07-22-2011, 04:32 PM
if TB wants a catcher then the Reds could offer a list of PTBNLs that includes Grandal & a bunch of not so great prospects. then after August 15th (i am not sure of the exact date) Grandal can officially be the PTBNL.

for me Mes is the only guy not on the 25 man roster that is untradable.

Personally its starting to annoy me that every time the Reds try to make a deal the opposition asks for the moon. then turns around and trades the player to another team for a bunch of B & C prospects.

But let's say a trade like that goes down next week. With Grandal being the PTBNL, does he continue to play games in the Reds system (and risk injury) or do the Reds shut him down for a couple of weeks until he can officially be shipped to Tampa Bay? If he's not in the lineup from July 20-something through Aug. 15, it would be fairly obvious why.

Mario-Rijo
07-22-2011, 04:32 PM
When did we find out what the offer to Seattle was?

We had it on good authority last year around this time.

lollipopcurve
07-22-2011, 04:35 PM
We had it on good authority last year around this time.

I wouldn't say that. My sense was it was all pure speculation.

Will M
07-22-2011, 04:37 PM
But let's say a trade like that goes down next week. With Grandal being the PTBNL, does he continue to play games in the Reds system (and risk injury) or do the Reds shut him down for a couple of weeks until he can officially be shipped to Tampa Bay? If he's not in the lineup from July 20-something through Aug. 15, it would be fairly obvious why.

maybe the list includes Grandal plus some other decent prospects in case of a major injury to Grandal and also as to not be quite so obvious that the 2 teams are bending the rules.

Lets say its Shields for Alonso, Wood & a PTBNL. the PTBNL list includes Grandal, Boxberger & Juan Duran. then barring injury when Grandal can be the PTBNL he is. viola!

Mario-Rijo
07-22-2011, 04:41 PM
I wouldn't say that. My sense was it was all pure speculation.

I believe Doug said he knew it was but I could be wrong. But even if he didn't I feel pretty good about my gut hunches on this team and I believe Walt would cough him up for the right bargain and either of these pitchers qualifies.

Will M
07-22-2011, 04:45 PM
Mes was a nice prospect this time last year. But was it a mirage? one year later the answer is no. he is a much better prospect now than he was a year ago due to his success in AAA.

757690
07-22-2011, 04:58 PM
Do you trade Mes if that is what it takes to get Shields?

Playadlc
07-22-2011, 05:06 PM
Do you trade Mes if that is what it takes to get Shields?

I love Mes, but I think you have to do it. Shields would flat dominate in the NL.

Mario-Rijo
07-22-2011, 05:07 PM
Do you trade Mes if that is what it takes to get Shields?

The obvious answer is let's hope it doesn't come to that but I would have a tough time saying no to including him if they held my feet to the fire. Shields is a really smart move for alot of different reasons. And as much as I wouldn't want to part with him I can't say I wouldn't I'm definitely leaning towards doing it. But again there are lots of different ways to skin a cat and I would try all of those before I caved.

757690
07-22-2011, 05:23 PM
If the Ray's demanded Mes for Shields, I would do it because I think that makes the Reds a championship team for years.

However, I would demand that the Rays included Desmond Jennings. Something like...

Mes, Alonso, Boxburger, and Francisco for Shields and Jennings.

Playadlc
07-22-2011, 05:37 PM
If the Ray's demanded Mes for Shields, I would do it because I think that makes the Reds a championship team for years.

However, I would demand that the Rays included Desmond Jennings. Something like...

Mes, Alonso, Boxburger, and Francisco for Shields and Jennings.

I don't see any way the Rays do this. I would be shocked if they moved Jennings. If he reaches the top end of his ceiling, you’re looking at Carl Crawford.

signalhome
07-22-2011, 05:43 PM
I don't see any way the Rays do this. I will be shocked if they move Jennings. If he reaches the top end of his ceiling, you’re looking at Carl Crawford.

Yeah, there's absolutely no way they make that deal. Jennings isn't going anywhere.

757690
07-22-2011, 05:47 PM
Yeah, there's absolutely no way they make that deal. Jennings isn't going anywhere.

Right. And Mes isn't going anywhere either. ;)

mth123
07-22-2011, 08:06 PM
Do you trade Mes if that is what it takes to get Shields?

No. Grandal, Alonso and something lesser should be plenty of value. I Like Shields a lot and would like to see the Reds get him, but not as much as some I guess. I'd give them Hanigan as the third guy if they want a right now catcher.

traderumor
07-23-2011, 10:08 AM
It would seem like the price should be a top flight position prospect (Mes, Grandal OR Alonso), a young major league position player with a stick, and a couple of lower level, high ceiling prospects that the Rays pick from a list. Two top major league or near major league ready prospects is too much to make the deal fair for the Reds.

The deals I've seen proposed will send us into Brewers Land real quick. We'd be overpaying.

camisadelgolf
07-23-2011, 10:22 AM
It would seem like the price should be a top flight position prospect (Mes, Grandal OR Alonso), a young major league position player with a stick, and a couple of lower level, high ceiling prospects that the Rays pick from a list. Two top major league or near major league ready prospects is too much to make the deal fair for the Reds.

The deals I've seen proposed will send us into Brewers Land real quick. We'd be overpaying.
So you're saying they'd be in first place right now?

Benihana
07-23-2011, 11:15 AM
Grandal, Alonso and a "B" prospect along the lines of a Frazier (unlikely now) Francisco (injured now) Sappelt or LaMarre should do it. While Jennings isn't going anywhere, Id also put Tim Beckham in the deal and see if a change of scenery couldn't rejuvenate him. He could form a nice MI combo with Cozart for years to come, provided the Reds could get mashers for 3B and LF.

traderumor
07-23-2011, 01:03 PM
So you're saying they'd be in first place right now?Nope, that we'd be letting someone pillage our farm system so that we could be an average, at best, team this year. You gotta give something to get something, but I think the two highly rated prospects is overpaying and that it could get done with less. Other teams seem to do so. The proposed offers I'm regularly seeing on here are offering our four best prospects and Chris Heisey for a pitcher not named Halladay, Kershaw, or Felix.

mth123
07-23-2011, 01:35 PM
Nope, that we'd be letting someone pillage our farm system so that we could be an average, at best, team this year. You gotta give something to get something, but I think the two highly rated prospects is overpaying and that it could get done with less. Other teams seem to do so. The proposed offers I'm regularly seeing on here are offering our four best prospects and Chris Heisey for a pitcher not named Halladay, Kershaw, or Felix.

I agree with your overall point that it shouldn't take 4 or 5 guys and also that Shields isn't really an ace. I think Alonso and Grandal would be fair with maybe a fringe arm along the lines of Arredondo or Fisher thrown in. Shields would be a key cog throughout the Votto, Bruce years and it wouldn't be for just 2011.

Of course, I don't really believe that TB has any ideas of actually dealing him now unless they are overwhelmed with the similar offers to what is being presented here. OTOH, the Rays have dropped 5 games in the standings to the Sox and three games to the Yanks in the last 10 games, so maybe they are more inclined to sell off some pricey guys to give way to touted kids than anticipated 2 week ago. From that stanpoint, dealing Shields makes sense for them.

Benihana
07-24-2011, 11:21 PM
Rays now saying they won't trade Shields per MLBTR/Yahoo