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corkedbat
07-21-2011, 03:36 AM
...if I were to strip down this year's team and go all-in for 2012 & 2013.

Lineup:

1B: Votto - unless you get the slobber-knocker of all slobber-knockers

2B: Phillips - the club needs to committ to picking up the option right now (I would), if they aren't they need to get something for him at the deadline

SS: Cozart - not saying he can't be improved upon, but I like his defense and speed on the bases. I see his ceiling as a solid bat who can man the two-hole and put up aolid AVG/BP/OPS. His floor: solid eigth hitter with pop. There are bigger holes to fill. I think he will hit enough to strengthen elsewhere and give him a shot for at least a full season.

3B: Rolen - I'm afraid he's near the end of the line, but if his bat can show some signs of life the second half, I'd probably chance another season, but I'd want a stronger bat Like Todd Frazier to split time with him (probably in the 7-hole) - I would still be on the lookout for a young replacement. Todd can also spell at LF & 1B.

LF: We really need a powerbat from outside here - someone who can produce between Votto and Bruce. Deal Gomes to the Braves if they really want him. Deal Lewis too if you can find a taker. Bring up Hermida and see if he's a bench candidate for next year.

CF: I love Stubbs, but someone CF-poor may really pay bigger than we expect for him. If he can help bring a TOR-type, I could live with Heisey/Sappelt in CF. I would either deal with OAK now for Coco Crisp to join one of them or I would go after him in FA on a short, very reasonable contract. Let them vie for the leadoff spot.

RF: Bruce - 'nuff said.

CA: Hannigan/Mesaraco - 'nuff said 2, no more talk of dealing Mes. Get something for Ramon now (unless someone REALLY wants Hanny)

Bench:

IF: Janish/Valaika/Trade/Minor FA: Probably Janish, but I'd deal him if someone is willing to pay a premium for his D
UT: Don't mind bringing back Cairo, but Frazier may offer the same, but more of it.
OF (2): Whoever's left from among Heisey/Sappelt/Crisp/Lewis/Hermida/Acquisiton/Minor FA
CA: Hannigan/Mesaraco

Rotation:

Cueto is the one sure thing, Bronson if he can't be dealt, whoever is still here of Leake/Bailey/Wood, I would shop for at least one and hopefully two Top 2 starters, I would give Chapman a shot in the rotation too, but no telling what the brass is thinking. Volquez should be dealt now

Bullpen:

(In the mix) Massett, Chapman (if not in the rotation), Arredondo, Bray, Ondruszek, Horst, Boxberger, (maybe) Burton, Lecure, a LH acquisiton to replace Aroldis for late innings if he goes to the rotation, another solid righty and any of several young guys not included in a deal. No way Coco is retained and should be dealt to anyone for anything at any time if there is an opportunity.

Targets (Both Now and before ST - could include after deadline or offseason trade and/or FA):

* Ubaldo Jiminez
* Jamie Shields
* Coco Crisp (if you can sign him to a very reasonable 2yr deal)
* RH'd power-hitting LF
* Solid righty veteran reliever
* Solid lefty-reliever (if Aroldis is headed to the rotation)
* Young 3B (replacement for Rolen - optional)
* Young MI who is solid offensively - Preferrably LH or SH (possible replacement for BP - optional)
* Any interesting prospects as deal sweeteners


Who's Avalable?:

* One of Heisey/Sappelt
* One of Leake/Wood/Bailey
* Anyone not named: Votto/Phillips/Cozart/Bruce/Mesaraco/Cueto/Chapman/Massett/Boxberger

klw
07-21-2011, 10:43 AM
With your thread title all I could think is that your post would be

"for a Klondike bar?"

Otherwise, nice reasoning though I disagree with some. Though I would still hope for a Volquez turnaround in AAA or lower unless I was bowled over by offers. Remember Texas once demoted Volquez all the way down to A ball to shock him in to improvement. The team they sent him to was the Bakersfield Blaze. Bakersfield is off course now the Reds high-A team. Maybe just saying the the word Bakersfield would create some sort of Pavlovian response out of Volkie.

dougdirt
07-21-2011, 10:45 AM
Why give up talent for Coco Crisp instead of just calling up Dave Sappelt?

Kc61
07-21-2011, 03:04 PM
Everyone keeps listing Mike Leake as available. Trading him would be a big mistake IMO.

Leake is one of the few Reds pitchers who consistently throws ground balls. This is critical in GABP, particularly with the Reds good infield defense.


Leake has been very good this year. For a guy with no minor league experience, he has been a real find for this team.

Folks are too mesmerized by velocity. Some guys can pitch based on control and movement.

Leake is one of them. I wouldn't trade him except in a huge blockbuster with several major players coming back.

And I probably wouldn't trade Bailey either. He's probably worth a lot more than he would command on the market. He's ready to emerge. Not the time to trade a guy.

I would trade Boxberger, Wood, Willis, or Volquez, among AAA or major league pitchers. I would trade Arredondo. I would trade Lecure. I would trade Cordero and Arroyo.


The Reds' real strength in trade pieces is on the offensive side, at AAA. Trading Leake or Bailey is likely to come back to bite the Reds.

Guacarock
07-21-2011, 03:38 PM
Why give up talent for Coco Crisp instead of just calling up Dave Sappelt?

Some arguments why:

1. Crisp is the better baserunner, so if you want steals from your lead-off man, Crisp is the better bet to perform coming straight out of the gate.

2. Crisp being a switch-hitter adds a tool to the Reds' offense -- whether an opponent throws a southpaw or righty at us, Crisp can adjust accordingly, without any dropoff in production or performance. Not having a switch-hitter, as is now the case with the Reds, has proven to be a liability for us -- limiting our options and leaving us more vulnerable against righties, especially combined with the Reds' dearth of left-handed batters.

3. If the Reds are serious about competing for the playoffs this season, then Crisp is more likely to get them there than Sappelt. Moving forward, of course, Sappelt stands a good chance to overcome Crisp given their age differences. But with Sappelt being a prospect, no telling how he would do in The Show over the next month or so, and it might be asking too much to expect him to make that advancement and also turn in a plus performance with a critical assignment like leading off.

In sum, I'm not sold on Crisp -- and certainly not long-term -- but I can see the team's rationale if he is obtained before the Trade Deadline. If we keep falling back, though, and don't seem likely to contend this season, then I'm with you. Would make no sense then to add Crisp to the arsenal, better to cut right to the chase and bring up Sappelt, letting him get an early taste of what lies ahead for 2012.

corkedbat
07-21-2011, 04:35 PM
* DD - my post was already so long, I neglected to go into more detail about acquiring Crisp. If I were to deal Stubbs, I would prfer to just keep Heisey/Sappelt as my CF/4th OF options. If I could, Crisp wouldn't be considered.

If I'm going all in and working several deals, I'd might have to include Heisey or Sappelt in a deal too. In that case, I believe that Crisp could backup Heisey or Sappelt in CF and give us a 4th OF on the bench who hits from either side. I consider Crisp because we might be able to acquire him from the A's for a fairly cheap price in talent and he might be fairly cheap to sign for a year or two.

* KC - Leake would be my first chice to keep of the three, but if it would get the right deal done, I would consider including him, but the return would have to be right. I'd love to see a rotation next spring of Jiminez, Cueto, Shields, Leake, and one of Chapman/Wood/Bailey.

* Everything revolves around getting Two top starters to build around like Jiminez AND Shields. Without two bigger arms to go with Cueto at the top of the rotations, there probably isn't mcuh reason to do a lot at all.

* While I want to avoid almost any rental, I'd make an exception with Ryan Ludwick (IF he were acquired with either Adams or Bell). I'd make the rest of the season an audition. If it were to look like the GAB might be a cure for him, I think it might be posible for Walt to sign him to a (relatively) reasonable deal for a couple of year. If he tanks, you can let him walk at the end of the year.

corkedbat
07-22-2011, 06:09 AM
I've been trying to boil down what I'd be willing to give up and if it would be enough to land my Targets and end up with the roster at the bottom. I'm not saying deal all those guys, I'd try to hold back any primary I could and I just listed some other guys as sweetners - they may not all be that impressive, but it just takes one club to see something in a guy (like a 22 y.o. Sulbaran) or a club that has an organizational hole to fill and it could complete a deal.

The Jiminez and Shields deal would take the most. You could probably do the Ludwick/Adams deal for less and the Crisp deal (if needed) with OAK would probably be done without a Primary trading chips - just people from the Sweetenrs a lone. I don't expect you'd be able to deal all the veterans in the last entry on the Sweeteners list, but I'd move any I could and any return they brought would go in the Sweetener column also.

Do you all think it can be done? Feel free to substitute someone else for one of the Targets I've listed, but it has to be someone that can be landed with this list and you must end up with Two stud starters, a LF with a power bat and a stong veteran reliever, minimum. Thanks!


Chips:

Primaries:

Yonder Alonso
(1) Chris Heisey/Dave Sappelt
Drew Stubbs
Yasmani Grandal
Yorman Rodriguez
(1) Travis Wood/Homer Bailey
Edinson Volquez

Possible Sweeteners:

Nefali Soto
Henry Rodriguez
(1) Paul Janish/Chris Valaika
Denis Phipps
Francisco Francisco
Danny Dorn
Eric Campbell
Felix Perez
Cody Puckett
DiDi Gregorious
Brodie Greene
Devin Lohman
Ryan LaMarre
(1) Logan Ondruszek/Jose Arredondo
Kyle Lotzkar
Donnie Joseph
Matt Maloney
Josh Smith
Josh Krebs
Josh Ravin
Carlos Fischer
Darryl Thompson
JC Sulbaran
Jerry Gil
Jordan Smith
Nick Christiani
Derrick Lutz
Daniel Renken
Matt Klinker
Drew Hayes

* Any prospects you can get for Gomes/Hernandez/Arroyo/Cordero/Lewis/Willis/Renteria/Cairo

Targets:

James Shields (From TB)
Ubaldo Jiminez From COL)
Ryan Ludwick (From SD)
Mike Adams (From SD)
Coco Crisp ( From OAK) - Only if you have to move both Stubbs and one between Sappelt and Heisey

* Any near MLB-ready prospects that you can add to the deals - preferrably a 3B, MI and/or a LH Reliever if possible.

Desired Results:

CF Heisey (or) Sappelt/Crisp
2B Phillips/Cairo
1B Votto
LF Ludwick/Hermida
RF Bruce
3B Rolen/Frazier
CA Hanigan/Mesoraco
SS Cozart/Renteria


Cueto
Jimenez
Shields
Leake
Arroyo (or) Wood/Bailey (or) Willis
Lecure
Bray
Arredondo/Ondruszek
Adams
Chapman
Massett
Cordero

* One of the reserves would probably still be in L'Ville. The choice for the 25th spot would probably come down to Frazier's versatility and his ability to backup Rolen vs. Hermida's experience and LH bat.

Mario-Rijo
07-22-2011, 06:38 AM
Why give up talent for Coco Crisp instead of just calling up Dave Sappelt?

I agree on this, I actually believe Sappelt is a better option given the 2. Crisp has never been that great a leadoff type, he's had some small levels of success doing it but he is seemingly closing in on being toast. .315 OBP and dropping.

corkedbat
07-22-2011, 06:51 AM
I agree on this, I actually believe Sappelt is a better option given the 2. Crisp has never been that great a leadoff type, he's had some small levels of success doing it but he is seemingly closing in on being toast. .315 OBP and dropping.

As I said in reply to Doug (and in the post right above yours). Acquiring Crisp only comes into play if you deal Stubbs and either Heisey or Sapplet, which probably aint happening. If it were to happen though, you could probably get him cheap from the As and hed give you a switch-hitting bat off the bench as well as a veteran CF who can hit from the left side to backup either Heisey or Sappelt.

Mario-Rijo
07-22-2011, 07:15 AM
As I said in reply to Doug (and in the post right above yours). Acquiring Crisp only comes into play if you deal Stubbs and either Heisey or Sapplet, which probably aint happening. If it were to happen though, you could probably get him cheap from the As and hed give you a switch-hitting bat off the bench as well as a veteran CF who can hit from the left side to backup either Heisey or Sappelt.

Yeah he's an upgrade to Lewis if nothing else.