It's Going To Be Shields

[FireDusty]

http://redlegnation.com/2011/07/21/the-reds-should-be-serious-about-james-shields/

It makes so much sense for both teams.

The 2 teams have already settled on Alonzo. The Rays are scouting Meseroco & Grandal and deciding which one they want.

Unless someone gets hurt, this deal is going to close next week.

[R_Webb18]

are we hoping the choose grandal?

[bshall2105]

are we hoping the choose grandal?

I know I am

[R_Webb18]

I know I am

how many yrs away is he?

[bshall2105]

how many yrs away is he?

I would think 2013 at best

[FireDusty]

I really hate to see Alonzo go. I have a feeling that he is going to explode into a bonafide offensive superstar.

But, you have to give up something to get something. The question is, how will fans feel in 4 years when Shields is closing in on the end part of his career, while Alonzo is hitting 30 Home Runs and putting up a .400 OBA?

Remember, 30 Homeruns actually means something again and hitting is now becoming harder to find than pitching.

That said, Meseroco is more prepared now, but Grandal is only a year behind and he is a switch hitter with power.

I hope the trade doesn't happen at all. Shields is Milt Pappas and we are going to have to give up 2 future AllStars to get a 15 game winner.

I hope Walt walks away, but he won't.

[mroby85]

I really hate to see Alonzo go. I have a feeling that he is going to explode into a bonafide offensive superstar.

But, you have to give up something to get something. The question is, how will fans feel in 4 years when Shields is closing in on the end part of his career, while Alonzo is hitting 30 Home Runs and putting up a .400 OBA?

Remember, 30 Homeruns actually means something again and hitting is now becoming harder to find than pitching.

That said, Meseroco is more prepared now, but Grandal is only a year behind and he is a switch hitter with power.

I hope the trade doesn't happen at all. Shields is Milt Pappas and we are going to have to give up 2 future AllStars to get a 15 game winner.

I hope Walt walks away, but he won't.

The way I look at it is they get Shields who should be a top of the rotation type of pitcher during the Votto/Cueto/Chapman years, and the silver lining is it can't turn out worse than the Josh Hamilton for Edinson Volquez trade, lol.

[mu4103]

I really hate to see Alonzo go. I have a feeling that he is going to explode into a bonafide offensive superstar.

But, you have to give up something to get something. The question is, how will fans feel in 4 years when Shields is closing in on the end part of his career, while Alonzo is hitting 30 Home Runs and putting up a .400 OBA?

Remember, 30 Homeruns actually means something again and hitting is now becoming harder to find than pitching.

That said, Meseroco is more prepared now, but Grandal is only a year behind and he is a switch hitter with power.

I hope the trade doesn't happen at all. Shields is Milt Pappas and we are going to have to give up 2 future AllStars to get a 15 game winner.

I hope Walt walks away, but he won't.
I agree. Shields has been one of the top pitchers in the league this year. But this is a guy with a +5 ERA last year and +4 the year before. In my opinion he will be another overpriced veteran, that may end up being worse than what we got. There is a reason the Rays want to trade him NOW. We are paying for the price of someone when they are at the peak of their game. Meaning we are probably overpaying.

[AintlifeGrande]

For a medium market team,sadly you cant have your cake and eat it too.You got to give up your big time prospects to get solid talent in return.I wondered why the Reds drafted two catchers #1 in the first place.

[partisan]

The question we should be asking is are the Reds a championship team with Shields in the rotation? I don't think so. I think we're a playoff team but not much more than that.

[R_Webb18]

The question we should be asking is are the Reds a championship team with Shields in the rotation? I don't think so. I think we're a playoff team but not much more than that.

lol you got start somewhere. throw cueto and sheilds out there game 1 and 2 imo they should be able to do there part.

[ruREaDy2]

I really hate to see Alonzo go. I have a feeling that he is going to explode into a bonafide offensive superstar.

But, you have to give up something to get something. The question is, how will fans feel in 4 years when Shields is closing in on the end part of his career, while Alonzo is hitting 30 Home Runs and putting up a .400 OBA?

Remember, 30 Homeruns actually means something again and hitting is now becoming harder to find than pitching.

That said, Meseroco is more prepared now, but Grandal is only a year behind and he is a switch hitter with power.

I hope the trade doesn't happen at all. Shields is Milt Pappas and we are going to have to give up 2 future AllStars to get a 15 game winner.
I hope Walt walks away, but he won't.

Ah yes, every top prospect is a future All-Star.

Signed,

Chris Gruler, Ryan Wagner, Brandon Larson, Gookie Dawkins, & Damian Jackson

I'm not saying that Alonso, Mesoraco and/or Grandal won't ever become stars, but if history is any indication at all...they're not likely to be. I think as a GM you always have to take a proven major league player for a prospect when you can. Yeah, you're probably going to let a prospect who is a future All-Star go once or twice if you're in the business long enough, but I'd say the chances of that are very slim.

Whether or not Shields holds that kind've value...that's up to Jocketty. What I do know is that he's posted double-digits wins in four straight seasons (about to be five) and he's still only 29. He has a reasonable contract and just may be entering the prime of his career.

[Eric the Red]

I'm not sold Walt would have to give up Alonso and Mes or Grandal. I'd bet Ryan Hanigan is an attractive option for TB. He's signed for the next 3 years I believe, at a very affordable price. I think a package of Alonso, Hanigan, Wood and Corcino get it done. Remeber, their still in the AL East/Wild Card race. Hanigan, Alonso and Wood all can help them this year.

[webbbj]

I agree. Shields has been one of the top pitchers in the league this year. But this is a guy with a +5 ERA last year and +4 the year before. In my opinion he will be another overpriced veteran, that may end up being worse than what we got. There is a reason the Rays want to trade him NOW. We are paying for the price of someone when they are at the peak of their game. Meaning we are probably overpaying.

the guy has had one less than spectacular year and has rebounded very nicely in the toughest division in baseball.

the one concern i would have is he does give up a lot of HRs but aces dont grow on trees and the reds will not be able to sign one via FA so they have to take some risks in acquiring one if they cant develop enough in their system.

I'd do it.

[ervinsm84]

ERAs pretty overrated, so i wouldnt get too hyped about his era this year or overly worried about what it was last year.

shields xFIP
2011 2.91
2010 3.55
2009 3.85
2008 3.87
2007 3.65

HIS FIP #s are solid as well.


K/9 innings career of 7.57

BB/9 innings career of 2.03

200+ innings every year from 07 on (2011 already at 148.2)



His #s are pretty legit, his contract is manageable, and the length of the contract is good.

I think hes been relatively injury free as well.

[Red Raindog]

Shields beat the Yanks last night -- 7 2/3 - 6 hits -- 1 run

Of course you lose if you are pitching for the Reds --- (at least some of them)

[FireDusty]

Ah yes, every top prospect is a future All-Star.

Signed,

Chris Gruler, Ryan Wagner, Brandon Larson, Gookie Dawkins, & Damian Jackson

I'm not saying that Alonso, Mesaroco and/or Grandal won't ever become stars, but if history is any indication at all...they're not likely to be. I think as a GM you always have to take a proven major league player for a prospect when you can. Yeah, you're probably going to let a prospect who is a future All-Star go once or twice if you're in the business long enough, but I'd say the chances of that are very slim.

Whether or not Shields holds that kind've value...that's up to Jocketty. What I do know is that he's posted double-digits wins in four straight seasons (about to be five) and he's still only 29. He has a reasonable contract and just may be entering the prime of his career.
I base my comment of "2 future All Stars" on the fact that Meseroco is a Catcher & all he has to do is hit 20 homers and play solid defense and he's going to go to his share of All Star games.

Alonzo? I don't look at home runs and RBI in the minors. Guys like him get pitched around (AAA teams are trying to win games to). What I look at with Alonzo is that he hits both lefties and righties, has a high OBA and has power. He doesn't strike out an absolute ton, and gets plenty of walks.

I just think that once he settles in, he's going to be a bona fide, Joey Votto type hitter.

[Redsnake]

I'm hoping some how the Reds can get a pitcher like Shields (or Jiminez) without losing Grandal or Mesarco.
That way Mesarco is C in 2012 and Grandal is moved to 3rd base to replace Rolen in 2013.

[SidneySlicker]

I really hate to see Alonzo go. I have a feeling that he is going to explode into a bonafide offensive superstar.

But, you have to give up something to get something. The question is, how will fans feel in 4 years when Shields is closing in on the end part of his career, while Alonzo is hitting 30 Home Runs and putting up a .400 OBA?

Remember, 30 Homeruns actually means something again and hitting is now becoming harder to find than pitching.

That said, Meseroco is more prepared now, but Grandal is only a year behind and he is a switch hitter with power.

I hope the trade doesn't happen at all. Shields is Milt Pappas and we are going to have to give up 2 future AllStars to get a 15 game winner.

I hope Walt walks away, but he won't.

While I think Alonso has a chance to be a good player, I don't see where people are getting this idea of him as a power hitter. In 4 seasons in the minors he's hit 36 homeruns. That's a little less than 10 a season. He may be a .300 hitter in the majors (.294 in the minors), but I think his homerun potential in the majors is way overrated by many. He's not going to come to the bigs and blow up as a homerun hitter.

[Red Raindog]

I'm hoping some how the Reds can get a pitcher like Shields (or Jiminez) without losing Grandal or Mesarco.
That way Mesarco is C in 2012 and Grandal is moved to 3rd base to replace Rolen in 2013.

Where do you get the idea he can play 3b?
Not saying he can't -- having never seen him play

[Redsnake]

Where do you get the idea he can play 3b?
Not saying he can't -- having never seen him play

There has been forum discussion before that most feel Grandal could play there.
IMO - With no clear 3rd base option in the minors and Rolen getting closer to retirement, it seems like a reasonable idea for him to make the switch.

[abish1572]

Would you guys be willing to trade away some future studs for player that we won't be able to sign back? I don't like shields! I say we tweak what we have and just go on from there.

I believe they have found something with D-train and Home Bailey is catching on great. Jonny, D-train, Bronson and Homer? Thats a good pitching rotation.

As I said last year, Chapman will be our closer. So any discussion about him in the rotation is gone. I never did like him as a starter anyways.

:::IF::::
Walt does trade

My bet would be that Mike leake gets traded along with yonder Alonso and chris heisey to get a SP and a 3rd base prospect.

[kg112686]

I base my comment of "2 future All Stars" on the fact that Meseroco is a Catcher & all he has to do is hit 20 homers and play solid defense and he's going to go to his share of All Star games.

Alonzo? I don't look at home runs and RBI in the minors. Guys like him get pitched around (AAA teams are trying to win games to). What I look at with Alonzo is that he hits both lefties and righties, has a high OBA and has power. He doesn't strike out an absolute ton, and gets plenty of walks.

I just think that once he settles in, he's going to be a bona fide, Joey Votto type hitter.

I understand guys like him get pitched around and that skews their stats but I'm sure Joey got pitched around too. He managed to still hit a ton of home runs, drive in a ton, walk more than Yonder and hit for a high average. All while being younger than him. Could he possibly be another Votto? Of course, but I personally don't it. Solid major league 1st baseman? Yes.

[kg112686]

Would you guys be willing to trade away some future studs for player that we won't be able to sign back? I don't like shields! I say we tweak what we have and just go on from there.

I believe they have found something with D-train and Home Bailey is catching on great. Jonny, D-train, Bronson and Homer? Thats a good pitching rotation.

As I said last year, Chapman will be our closer. So any discussion about him in the rotation is gone. I never did like him as a starter anyways.

:::IF::::
Walt does trade

My bet would be that Mike leake gets traded along with yonder Alonso and chris heisey to get a SP and a 3rd base prospect.

Since you are talking about Chapman as closer I am assuming you want that rotation for next year, correct? If so, you are willing to put your faith in Dontrelle Willis, a junkball throwing Bronson, and an injury prone Homer? Don't get me wrong, I love Willis and hope he does well, but I for one am not ready to have to depend upon him for a whole season. Same with Bailey. Love his potential, but if he is hurt for half of every season is he really worth it?

You have to trade something good to get something good back. We NEED a TOR arm to compliment Johnny. We would have Shields thru the 2014 with his team options. He and Johnny at the top of the rotation sound really good to me.

[drowg14]

I'm hoping some how the Reds can get a pitcher like Shields (or Jiminez) without losing Grandal or Mesarco.
That way Mesarco is C in 2012 and Grandal is moved to 3rd base to replace Rolen in 2013.

One thing I agree with other posters on is Grandal offers a lot more value as a Catcher than a 3rd baseman. So if he is being blocked by Mes, the best thing to do is use his value as a trading chip.

[R_Webb18]

Would you guys be willing to trade away some future studs for player that we won't be able to sign back? I don't like shields! I say we tweak what we have and just go on from there.

I believe they have found something with D-train and Home Bailey is catching on great. Jonny, D-train, Bronson and Homer? Thats a good pitching rotation.

As I said last year, Chapman will be our closer. So any discussion about him in the rotation is gone. I never did like him as a starter anyways.

:::IF::::
Walt does trade

My bet would be that Mike leake gets traded along with yonder Alonso and chris heisey to get a SP and a 3rd base prospect.

its impossible to not like sheilds compared what we have. you do realize hes not here for yr only also.

[abish1572]

Since you are talking about Chapman as closer I am assuming you want that rotation for next year, correct? If so, you are willing to put your faith in Dontrelle Willis, a junkball throwing Bronson, and an injury prone Homer? Don't get me wrong, I love Willis and hope he does well, but I for one am not ready to have to depend upon him for a whole season. Same with Bailey. Love his potential, but if he is hurt for half of every season is he really worth it?

You have to trade something good to get something good back. We NEED a TOR arm to compliment Johnny. We would have Shields thru the 2014 with his team options. He and Johnny at the top of the rotation sound really good to me.

I agree about trading something to get something good back, but i am not sold on trading for ubaldo nor shields. Gotta remember, GABP is not friendly.




its impossible to not like sheilds compared what we have. you do realize hes not here for yr only also.

Yes I know we have him for a few years, but if hes going to be an ace like you all are proclaiming him to be, we wouldnt be able to sign him to a big time contract. So there goes all of our future studs for what, 2 years? wow lol

Shields has a 9-8 record why trade for someone with a horrible record in the AL?

[ED44]

I agree about trading something to get something good back, but i am not sold on trading for ubaldo nor shields. Gotta remember, GABP is not friendly.





Yes I know we have him for a few years, but if hes going to be an ace like you all are proclaiming him to be, we wouldnt be able to sign him to a big time contract. So there goes all of our future studs for what, 2 years? wow lol

Shields has a 9-8 record why trade for someone with a horrible record in the AL?

He pitches in the toughest division in baseball...has an ERA under 3 and his team has scored 2 runs or less in 10 of his 21 starts. With that said, I wouldn't include Mes in any deal for him.

[FireDusty]

I understand guys like him get pitched around and that skews their stats but I'm sure Joey got pitched around too. He managed to still hit a ton of home runs, drive in a ton, walk more than Yonder and hit for a high average. All while being younger than him. Could he possibly be another Votto? Of course, but I personally don't it. Solid major league 1st baseman? Yes.

If you look at Votto's stats in the minors, they are very comparable.

It's all opinion.

I think Yonder Alonzo is going to be a special hitter.

[R_Webb18]

If you look at Votto's stats in the minors, they are very comparable.

It's all opinion.

I think Yonder Alonzo is going to be a special hitter.

i think he will be also but our need is a special pitcher

[Spider Tre]

Shields has a 9-8 record why trade for someone with a horrible record in the AL?
not much run support

[justincredible]

Shields has a 9-8 record why trade for someone with a horrible record in the AL?

Record is a terribly useless stat when evaluating how productive a pitcher is. Any stat for a pitcher that relies on how well your offense performed can't be good.

[DGullett35]

Shields pitches in the toughest offensive division in baseball..Boston, New York, and Toronto is pretty good offensively too..and he has 7 complete games. Ive seen him pitch about 5 starts this year and he seems like a fierce competitor. All the guy wants to do is win.. he wants to go out every time and go 9 innings and he isn't afraid to get on his teammates if there not doing there part. He'd be a good fit in the Queen city and I personally hope Walt pulls the trigger on this one. Cueto Sheilds and Bailey in the front end..That's pretty good, even better than Milwaukee IMO

[texasdave]

The Rays are telling teams that they won't trade starter James Shields, according to Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com (via Twitter).