View Full Version : 3.74 era, 1.17 whip

07-24-2011, 01:52 AM
Those are good numbers for any pitcher in the big leagues. 55 innings with those numbers is an entire season of good pitching from a middle reliever. These are Homer Bailey's numbers after today's outting against the Braves.

Yes, he has been prone to bad pitches at critical points in ballgames, even in this "mostly" successful 2011 season. And, yes, the arm problems he continues to experience at random points in his progression is alarming. But, as a pitcher at 25 years of age, he remains one of the most promising young players in the National League. The 77mph hook he threw to Eric Hinske on a 2-2 count this afternoon made Orel Hershiser blush (I type while I watch a rerun of of the game).

The guy is absolutely sick with talent. If you are going to give Miguel Cairo a multi-year deal, and Johnny Cueto a multi-year deal even before Cueto discovered Luis Tiant, you HAVE to invest in a pitcher like Bailey...

... at 25 years of age...

The Reds need to commit to Bailey with a 3-year deal this winter, provided his arm doesn't fly off at some point the last two months of the 2011 season. They should be able to do this with a contract that minimizes risk, considering his struggles to this point. To throw him into some kind of deal to garner two months of Ryan Ludwick or even Carlos Beltran would be criminally insane.

Homer Bailey's "stuff" is still buzz-worthy, and he is finally learning how to pitch. The Reds need to capitolize on him now before he becomes unaffordable.

07-24-2011, 02:25 AM
It strikes me that I'm not appreciating him the way I should. mmm..the times they are a changin' when a Reds pitcher can put up numbers like that and still fly under the radar.

07-24-2011, 02:37 AM
Out of curiosity, were you saying the same thing about Edinson Volquez? I think you have to be careful about extending pitchers--particularly ones with a history of shoulder injuries. Regardless, I think you're onto a great idea as long as it's only a three-year-deal or so. Bailey seems to have grown up quite a bit the past couple years and has learned to be a pitcher as opposed to a thrower. On top of that, he's finally displaying above-average control, which is very impressive when you consider how wild he used to be.

Since the start of 2009, when he was 22-going-on-23 years old, he has a 4.34 ERA along with a 1.372 WHIP. That's not exactly "ace" material, but that's better than the following pitchers at the same ages:
Cliff Lee
Erik Bedard
Chris Carpenter
C.J. Wilson
Jeff Karstens (I know, I know--but he's leading the league in ERA)
Wandy Rodriguez
Tim Stauffer
Ryan Dempster

So if you're one of those people expecting Bailey to regress based on his performances from a couple years ago, well, you might be waiting a while since those days appear to be behind him. It looks he's finally putting it all together, and for financial reasons, this might be the best time to lock him up to a long term deal.

07-24-2011, 02:41 AM
I think Bailey can have a good run in Cincinnati while he's in his prime, similar to Harang's 3.75 era type seasons, but eventually he'd benefit from playing in a bigger park (okay, who wouldn't). Nevertheless, he's really developing. It's amazing the amount of work it takes to go from not-quite-good-enough to good enough. Today's start had moments from 2007, but the difference is he can pitch out of it instead of try to K batters. In 2007 this would have been a 5-1 ballgame early on. Credit Bailey, but I'm still curious to see a 35 start season from Bailey, hopefully next year.

07-24-2011, 03:12 AM
I'm a fan of Homer (not to be confused with a homer fan), but if he could help facilitate a series of trades that landed a soiid bat and Jiminez and/or Shields, I'd do the deal although I'd put him ahead of Wood in the pecking order (and equal to or just below Leake).

07-24-2011, 03:26 AM
If Bailey's shoulder woes are unrelated short term blips with no lasting effects, then IMO he'll be this team's ace by as soon as October. I could actually see him going all Jose Rijo and getting on a huge roll going into the still hoped for play-offs.

OTOH, 3 shoulder DL Stints in such a short time scares the heck out of me. I still suspect an underlying issue could be there and reveal itself as innings mount. Hopefully he's healthy for years. If so, it bodes well for the Reds IMO.

07-24-2011, 10:19 AM
OTOH, 3 shoulder DL Stints in such a short time scares the heck out of me. I still suspect an underlying issue could be there and reveal itself as innings mount. Hopefully he's healthy for years. If so, it bodes well for the Reds IMO.

I agree with that. He'll be a first-time arb-eligible this offseason -- not too expensive -- and won't be eligible for free agency until after 2014, so I'm okay with waiting until around this time next year. If he's still in one piece by then and pitching well, then I'm talking extension. Not quite sure enough on the health to go there yet.

07-24-2011, 01:46 PM
The guy is absolutely sick with talent.

Is he? I'll agree, he's taken steps forward and is finally a solid major league pitcher when healthy, but I feel like the whole "sky's the limit" tag has been hung on him since 2005. Bailey's K rate is just scratching over 6 and he's been topping out at 91-92 most starts. I like him, but I just don't see the huge upside unless he has one of his random spikes in velocity he gets every few years.