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View Full Version : is Brandon Phillips worth 12 million?



Krawhitham
07-26-2011, 07:52 PM
Here is what he is on pace for this season

16 HR
10 SB
89 RBI
94 R

Brandon Phillips' numbers always decline in the 2nd half of a season and the numbers above to not reflect that

3 year splits (http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/splits/_/id/5031/type/batting3/brandon-phillips)

Brandon Phillips is not the same man he was when the contract was signed
30 HR
33 SB
109 RBI
107 R

If he is not worth 12 million then why not trade him this week

drowg14
07-26-2011, 08:06 PM
Is defense is worth some. Per FanGraphs his WAR so far this year is 3.3. Still a good player.

FireDusty
07-26-2011, 08:11 PM
Yes.

Vottomatic
07-26-2011, 08:14 PM
Here is what he is on pace for this season

16 HR
10 SB
89 RBI
94 R

Brandon Phillips' numbers always decline in the 2nd half of a season and the numbers above to not reflect that

3 year splits (http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/splits/_/id/5031/type/batting3/brandon-phillips)

Brandon Phillips is not the same man he was when the contract was signed
30 HR
33 SB
109 RBI
107 R

If he is not worth 12 million then why not trade him this week

Actually, I've struggled with this because I agree that BP is a good player, but his offensive numbers are declining, and he's not getting any younger.

I secretly hoped he could maybe be a career Red, but his declining numbers tell me that maybe the Reds should consider offers for BP.

I would simply consider it business. I love BP and he will always be a Red to me. But the Reds are a small market club, and I'd rather invest some money in a Matt Kemp or impact player.

If BP realized his numbers were declining, and was willing to take like $7 or $8M per season for like 3 years, I'd consider it based on his defense and okay offense. But I think BP thinks he's still at the top of his game and would scoff at an offer like that.

brm7675
07-26-2011, 08:16 PM
But how does his numbers this season compare with other 2nd basemen's in teh NL?

webbbj
07-26-2011, 08:18 PM
yes

BluegrassRedleg
07-26-2011, 09:59 PM
Absolutely, right now. But the main question is how much will he be worth in 2-3 years, or however long the term of his next deal is.

R_Webb18
07-26-2011, 10:08 PM
lets just trade every1 and with a few triple A WS

CrosleyField
07-27-2011, 08:01 AM
Yes

code
07-27-2011, 12:08 PM
yep, 12 million ez.

Red Rover
08-12-2011, 10:29 AM
Phillips is on the decline. Can't steal bases anymore, power numbers are down and lacks on base skills. Defense is still top notch. Is he worth 12M? Not if it limits upgrades elsewhere.

BP is good hitting 2nd or 6th in the order, but when he hits 4th this team doesn't have enough pop.

I would rather pay 12M+ for a LF that can hit cleanup than spend 12M for a SS that shouldn't hit cleanup.

Girevik
08-12-2011, 10:53 AM
Is Brandon Phillips worth $12 Mil? Yes.

Can the Reds afford to pay Brandong $12M? I don't know.

Red Rover
08-12-2011, 11:06 AM
Is Brandon Phillips worth $12 Mil? Yes.

Can the Reds afford to pay Brandong $12M? I don't know.

Agree, if he can maintain the 2.6 WAR that he put up last year he is worth 12M, but can the Reds afford that? Probably not and still get a real cleanup hitter.

izzy's dad
08-12-2011, 11:24 AM
If you consider his defense, his popularity among fans, and his value in the clubhouse, yes, he is worth 10-12 mil a year for 3 years. Was OCab's production worth his contract? Probably not, but his influence in the locker room was something that must be considered.

Red Rover
08-12-2011, 11:35 AM
If you consider his defense, his popularity among fans, and his value in the clubhouse, yes, he is worth 10-12 mil a year for 3 years. Was OCab's production worth his contract? Probably not, but his influence in the locker room was something that must be considered.

And how much has that helped this year? The Reds are going to need to spend that 12M better than they are now I'm afraid.

Vottomatic
08-12-2011, 11:47 AM
Yes.

faffy42
08-12-2011, 12:11 PM
Defensive skills 8 million
Offensive production 4 million
Tweeting with the community...priceless.

Krawhitham
08-12-2011, 12:18 PM
won the last two without him

larkinfan4life
08-12-2011, 01:34 PM
RK PLAYER TEAM AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS
1 Dustin Pedroia BOS 450 76 139 26 2 15 60 22 5 73 56 .309 .402 .476 .877
2 Robinson Cano NYY 449 74 136 29 6 20 81 8 1 25 66 .303 .350 .528 .878
3 Howard Kendrick LAA 377 56 111 25 2 8 36 11 3 26 85 .294 .351 .435 .786
4 Brandon Phillips CIN 446 63 128 26 1 11 63 7 8 28 56 .287 .333 .424 .757
5 Darwin Barney CHC 378 47 107 17 4 1 34 5 2 15 42 .283 .318 .357 .676
6 Ben Zobrist TB 430 78 120 37 6 15 67 12 4 63 91 .279 .371 .498 .869
7 Omar Infante FLA 423 38 118 15 6 3 34 3 1 29 45 .279 .324 .364 .688
8 Neil Walker PIT 434 56 119 20 3 9 67 7 4 39 85 .274 .335 .396 .731
9 Maicer Izturis LAA 359 44 98 25 0 5 28 7 5 29 53 .273 .336 .384 .720
10 Rickie Weeks MIL 416 71 113 25 2 19 43 9 2 43 96 .272 .346 .478 .825

Top 10 Offensive and Number 1 Defensive (IMO)...Definitely worth the money!

jwmann2
08-13-2011, 01:44 PM
Absolutely. Top five second baseman in Major League Baseball.
Uggla, Utley, Cano, Phillips,etc.

mroby85
08-13-2011, 02:12 PM
Solely based on offense he's not worth it, but when you factor in his gold glove defense i'd say he is. You also have to figure in what an upgrade he would be over who else they will end up having at 2B in an already weak offense. In my opinion resigning him depends on whether they will also be able to afford Votto. Votto would be my 1st priority, and I would revolve the rest of my payroll around him.

Fullboat
08-13-2011, 02:38 PM
The Reds can trade Phillips and Votto for a boat load of good prospects.These two are very good
ball players that the Reds will no longer be able to afford.I know its a different sport with a
salary cap but the Patriots have let top talent go and seem to replace it and still remain competitive, why can't the Reds do the same?

mroby85
08-13-2011, 02:52 PM
The Reds can trade Phillips and Votto for a boat load of good prospects.These two are very good
ball players that the Reds will no longer be able to afford.I know its a different sport with a
salary cap but the Patriots have let top talent go and seem to replace it and still remain competitive, why can't the Reds do the same?

Because trading Votto would be like trading the Reds Tom Brady who the Patriots wouldn't have won anything without.

Fullboat
08-13-2011, 03:11 PM
Because trading Votto would be like trading the Reds Tom Brady who the Patriots wouldn't have won anything without.

But they were still competitive were they not?Fans here went nuts when we lost
Kearns and Lopez they went nuts when we lost Dunn but the team still won a
division with similar or better talent.

mroby85
08-13-2011, 03:13 PM
But they were still competitive were they not?Fans here went nuts when we lost
Kearns and Lopez they went nuts when we lost Dunn but the team still won a
division with similar or better talent.

Are you really going to compare the MVP of the NL to Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez? Really? lol

Fullboat
08-13-2011, 03:18 PM
NO!! not all, I'm just saying that Baseball in Cincy did not end when they were traded or let go.Just like it won't end if Phillips and Votto were traded.

Fullboat
08-13-2011, 03:21 PM
MVP was last year if Votto is to stay 2 more years what makes you think its a sure bet that he
wins it again?

captainmorgan07
08-13-2011, 03:23 PM
Yes he is no question, he's been batting out of his comfort zone in clenaup spot for years, he is a prototypical number 2 hitter. He's played well here for years and deserves a ltc.

Fullboat
08-13-2011, 03:26 PM
If the Reds had big market money both players would have C on their chests for the rest of their
career.

Vottomatic
08-14-2011, 07:27 PM
Bengals signed Willie Anderson to another multi-year contract when he was old, out of loyalty. All it did was hurt them for years.

Bengals have signed alot of guys out of loyalty, that were dumb moves at the time.

Hopefully, the Reds don't do the same thing. I love BP. I think BP thinks he is still at the top of his game. If he'd consider a reduced rate, then I'd consider it, but not for more than like 3 or 4 years.

Jr's Boy
08-14-2011, 07:40 PM
If Walt does not pick up his option,I'll have to find another team.Because that would show how clueless this organization really is.

Old NDN
08-15-2011, 11:29 AM
I will say yes. But many of us were clamoring for LTC's for Harang, Arroyo, etc. and it became an albatross for the team. If they trade him, there's no guarantee the Reds will use that 12 million to sign anyone else. They may throw some of it at Votto, but I really don't think the Reds will be able to afford him, when the time comes. I doubt there are many free agents chomping at the bit to play in Cincinnati, even though they won the Division last year....unless they overpay.

nux fan
08-15-2011, 11:31 AM
no, not worth it

Crumbley
08-15-2011, 02:27 PM
They have to exercise the option for '12 but who knows long-term. BP has said himself that it's going to be hard for them to afford him with in the future.

Vottomatic
08-15-2011, 04:37 PM
I will say yes. But many of us were clamoring for LTC's for Harang, Arroyo, etc. and it became an albatross for the team. If they trade him, there's no guarantee the Reds will use that 12 million to sign anyone else. They may throw some of it at Votto, but I really don't think the Reds will be able to afford him, when the time comes. I doubt there are many free agents chomping at the bit to play in Cincinnati, even though they won the Division last year....unless they overpay.

Yeah, I go back and forth because I like Brandon. He may be the best defensive second baseman I've ever watched. I never thought I'd say that. But the more I watch the guy, he just makes amazing plays, and sometimes multiple ones per night.

I think offensively he's dropped off, but I also think Dusty has misused him in the lineup. If we had a new manager who would put BP in the best spot to help the team, I think he would.

I do think BP's power and speed stats are on the decline.

Again, if Brandon is looking to break the bank, I'd say no. This team will go on without him. I pick up next year's option, see if he wants to be reasonable long term or if he's going for that long big contract to finish out his career, that so many guys go for.

This issue really comes down to how much and for how long.

JayStubbs
09-02-2011, 10:37 PM
Phillips wants an extension.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110902&content_id=24110456&vkey=news_cin&c_id=cin&partnerId=aw-8138651446214005589-1025


If the Reds only pick up the option on Phillips without giving him an extension, he plans on becoming a first-time free agent after the 2012 season.

"If they just pick my option up and don't extend me, I feel like that's a slap in my face," Phillips said. "If the team wants you, they will make room. They will show you they want you here, period. They did it for some of the other guys.

"If they're going to have me for just one year, I feel like they don't see me in the future."

Crumbley
09-02-2011, 11:22 PM
12 million guaranteed is disrespect?

Being disrespected sounds awesome.

goreds2
09-03-2011, 12:56 AM
12 Million for Brandon is a steal by todays standards. Bat him lead off. We win when he does.

texasdave
09-03-2011, 11:02 AM
I think last off-season was the time for extensions. If Brandon didn't get one then I think it's not in the cards.

Stray
09-03-2011, 11:49 AM
He's showing a lot of value at the leadoff spot. With his gold glove defense I think he's definitely worth the money. The question is whether or not we can afford him.

I think we might try to extend him and see if he'll give us a discount, if not we pick up his option and he's a FA after next year. No matter how you look at it any replacement for him is going to be a huge downgrade, so I hope we can find a way to keep him. Just not at an outrageous price into his mid to late 30s.

bagz
09-03-2011, 12:19 PM
I like Brandon and still feel he has a lot of good seasons ahead of him. The question is how many before a possible injury could inhibit his value. It happens to players reaching and past there prime all the time. I would offer him a 2 year extension at 10 million per year. There's no way I would give him a Jay Bruce like contract at 10 million for 5 years.

jwmann2
09-03-2011, 02:14 PM
12 Million seems like a lot to us but is nothing to the Red Sox and Yankees. Aka, get down to Great American and start spending money.

Roush's socks
09-03-2011, 10:10 PM
Tough call. He is one of the best 2B in baseball but he is at the age where his production will start to slip. If you are looking at it by the numbers, he probably shouldn't be signed to a long term deal. I would pick up the option for 2012 then hope to find a stopgap till Billy Hamilton is ready in 2014. Or Cozart could eventually move to 2B, or even Todd Frazier.

On the other hand, Phillips has been a good Red for awhile now, going to the Allstar game and winning GG's. If they want to keep him for more "chemistry" reasons and because he is a "face" of the franchise, I could understand that too. His defense just seems to be getting better, and even if he slips a little at the plate, he will still be a good 2B.

Which bring ups the question, how valuable is he? If he only adds 2-3 wins a year, that is hard to justify paying 12-15 mil/yr. Some would doubt the accuracy of WAR and say that he is adding more value than that.

Vottomatic
09-04-2011, 10:28 AM
A tough decision because of BP's age, the Reds being small market, overall payroll concerns, and more than likely BP is beginning the downside of his career.

If Brandon wouldn't ask for the moon and realize he is beginning the downside of his career, then maybe he accepts less.

Jay Bruce is what......23? 24? years old? A 5 year contract puts him at 28 or 29. A 5 year contract for BP puts him at 35 or 36. Huge difference.

Roush's socks
09-04-2011, 01:41 PM
A tough decision because of BP's age, the Reds being small market, overall payroll concerns, and more than likely BP is beginning the downside of his career.

If Brandon wouldn't ask for the moon and realize he is beginning the downside of his career, then maybe he accepts less.

Jay Bruce is what......23? 24? years old? A 5 year contract puts him at 28 or 29. A 5 year contract for BP puts him at 35 or 36. Huge difference.

Yep. it is highly unlikely that BP will be worth 10-15 mil in a 3-5 years. He is playing at a career high right now, but over the last 5 years he is a 2 WAR player. If he loses a little he could easily be a 0 WAR player, league average. The Reds can't afford to play a 0 WAR player 10-15 mil.

texasdave
09-06-2011, 11:25 AM
Just an FYI for all the folks out there. In 1999 Pokey Reese was twice the defender that Brandon Phillips is. That year his defense was beyond unbelievable. Not even close.

nmculbreth
09-06-2011, 07:12 PM
Yep. it is highly unlikely that BP will be worth 10-15 mil in a 3-5 years. He is playing at a career high right now, but over the last 5 years he is a 2 WAR player. If he loses a little he could easily be a 0 WAR player, league average. The Reds can't afford to play a 0 WAR player 10-15 mil.

Agreed. Which is why it makes sense to pick up the $12mil option for 2012, offer him arbitration after 2012 and if he declines arbitration let somebody else pay for a multi-year deal. Brandon has been a great player and a wonderful ambassador for the entire organization but with the Reds' payroll constraints I don't think a LTC is in the best interests of the team.

Dew4192
09-08-2011, 06:25 PM
Ol' Pokey Reese, that was a player.

Old NDN
09-21-2011, 06:42 PM
Really getting tired of Phillips' whining and openly lobbying about his contract. He's got 12 million reasons to keep smiling for next year. Let the season play out before you rock the boat, man.

Stray
09-21-2011, 06:54 PM
Having a guy that wants to stay here and play because he loves the city, team, and fanbase doesn't bother me at all. He wants an extension and I don't blame him.

I think he'll get one too.

Krawhitham
09-21-2011, 09:06 PM
Having a guy that wants to stay here and play because he loves the city, team, and fanbase doesn't bother me at all. He wants an extension and I don't blame him.

I think he'll get one too.

At the same time he is saying he wants to stay he is also saying he will go to the highest bidder


“No bueno,” he said. “This is my last contract. There’s no homeboy hookup. That ain’t going to work. I want to be paid what I’m worth.”

Whatever the highest bid is that is what you are worth. Someone will always outbid the small market teams

Vottomatic
09-22-2011, 12:03 PM
At the same time he is saying he wants to stay he is also saying he will go to the highest bidder



Whatever the highest bid is that is what you are worth. Someone will always outbid the small market teams

Yeah. The highest bidder comments mixed with wanting to be a lifetime Red comments bother me.

BP knows the Reds are small market. And if he's basing it off of Bruce and Votto's contracts, BP is way off base. Those guys are and will be in their mid to late 20's when those contracts are finished. BP is already in his 30's, the downside of his career, and talks like he deserves money like them.

I think that will create an impasse in negotiations. Atleast I hope it will. I like BP. But I don't feel he is worth more than maybe $8M a season. And I'm not so sure the Reds can afford that.

Stray
09-22-2011, 12:58 PM
I don't think he's on the downside of his career yet. He's obviously not a cleanup hitter, but in a better role he is going to put up great numbers and GG defense.

He's worth more than 8 million dollars per year, the problem for us is that he's worth more than we can afford to pay. A hometown discount would be nice...but I cannot hold it against a guy for wanting to make his last contract count. At least we know we have him for another year.

Regardless, he's given us great years here and Cincy and he's been great with our fans. If he ends up going it would be sad if the Reds fans held it against him.

Krawhitham
09-22-2011, 03:58 PM
I don't think he's on the downside of his career yet. He's obviously not a cleanup hitter, but in a better role he is going to put up great numbers and GG defense.

He's worth more than 8 million dollars per year, the problem for us is that he's worth more than we can afford to pay. A hometown discount would be nice...but I cannot hold it against a guy for wanting to make his last contract count. At least we know we have him for another year.

Regardless, he's given us great years here and Cincy and he's been great with our fans. If he ends up going it would be sad if the Reds fans held it against him.

As great as he defense has been this season it has still drop a lot from last season. That trend will continue

He is not worth more than 7-8 million to the Reds when they could use the money to keep Votto

I have nothing against him leaving for a money grab, just so not say you want to be a Red for life when you know 6-12 teams can outbid them and you will go to the highest bidder. It will just make the fans mad at management for not keeping someone who claimed they wants to stay for life when it is not really management's fault when he leaves


I still like Tom Browning attitude around 90-91, Other teams out bid the Reds but he said if he could not live on 2 million he also could not live on 4 million. He signed for 2 million with the Reds