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View Full Version : 2011 is over, let's plan for next year.



fearofpopvol1
07-28-2011, 05:21 PM
In baseball, it's very easy to have knee jerk reactions. It's easy to get frustrated. It's even easy to remind yourself that it's a long season and that there is plenty of time left. Then you look at the standings, and you see that the Reds have 3 teams in front of them, inculding a surprising Pirates team. You may also see that the Brewers look like they are going to beat the Cubs today, which would put the Reds back 6.5 games. Personally, I think this late in the season, that's insurmountable. I felt pretty uneasy being back 4 and 5 games, but 6.5?

Simply put, the 2011 Reds are done. It's an unfortunate reality. You can't get swept at home in a 4 game series when you're already in 4th place in the division. The Reds for the entire series played attrocious. Errors galore, impatient ABs with free swinging, poor pitching. You name the area, the Reds were terrible. And even in today's game, where most things clicked outside of the pitching, Hernandez made no effort to block the ball that Ondrusek threw in the dirt, leading to a run that was a difference maker. Even the Mets commentators were astounded that he botched the play so badly. But really, Ramon's mistake was just a microcosm of this season. The Reds simply are underachieving and can't put it together and time has realistically run out.

This is not 2003 or 2004. The Reds have a pitching staff that I think most people outside of Reds Country could name many names for, even some of their relievers. You could maybe even make the case that some of the backup players now are better than some of the regulars back then.

Who is to blame? It probably falls a little bit on everyone from the top down. I really don't know how you assign the blame and I don't think it's fair to single out any 1 person when a team like the Reds have so many problems. The fact is, the Reds just aren't a very good team, despite having a lot of talent.

So, my advide to the Reds is start planning for next year. See if you can get a decent return for Hernandez and bring Mesoraco up immediately. DFA Fred Lewis and bring up Sappelt. Make sure that he and Alonso as well as Heisey get looks out there in LF. Trade off Cairo and let Frazier play everyday at 3B or somewhere in the field. Trade Cordero and bring up Boxberger. Figure out what you're going to do about the pitching. Package up at least 1 pitcher and some of the prospects and get a pitcher of real value back that is locked up for 2 to 3 more seasons. Maybe you even consider packaging up more prospects to get a LF RH thumper and another shutdown reliever.

Let's just hope that the right moves are made and that 2012 will be more exciting than 2011. There's no reason the Reds should be anything less than a contender.

Kc61
07-28-2011, 05:34 PM
Obviously, the Reds need to plan for next year.

But does that mean going young?

It could be argued that too much reliance on young prospects caused the demise of 2011. Guys like Rolen were hurt, Rhodes and Cabrera let go.

Other than Votto, who is fabulous, which young player has been so strong this year so as to lead the team to success? Cueto has been good. Beyond him?

Yes, plan for next year, but what is the design?

I have said for a long time that the Reds need a pitcher and a hitter. I mean proven people.

Because if next year is about Frazier, and Alonso, and Mesoraco, and more Bailey, and a kid closer, then I suspect we'll be worse off.

I agree that some guys like Razor and Renteria really don't need to be here anymore. To replace them short term, sure, those kids who remain after the deadline can be promoted, why not.

But let's not again rely on "internal improvement" for next year. Let's add a couple of serious ballplayers.

fearofpopvol1
07-28-2011, 05:38 PM
I'm not suggesting the Reds rely solely on the kids. But I think we need to see what these kids have so we can better assess their value and if they should be traded or they should be used to plug in holes. It's much more difficult to do that when they are sitting down in AAA.

dougdirt
07-28-2011, 05:39 PM
Obviously, the Reds need to plan for next year.

But does that mean going young?

It could be argued that too much reliance on young prospects caused the demise of 2011. Guys like Rolen were hurt, Rhodes and Cabrera let go.

Other than Votto, who is fabulous, which young player has been so strong this year so as to lead the team to success? Cueto has been good. Beyond him?

Yes, plan for next year, but what is the design?

I have said for a long time that the Reds need a pitcher and a hitter. I mean proven people.

Because if next year is about Frazier, and Alonso, and Mesoraco, and more Bailey, and a kid closer, then I suspect we'll be worse off.

I agree that some guys like Razor and Renteria really don't need to be here anymore. To replace them short term, sure, those kids who remain after the deadline can be promoted, why not.

But let's not again rely on "internal improvement" for next year. Let's add a couple of serious ballplayers.

The Reds problems this year have been the vets. Arroyo. Volquez. Janish. Renteria. Gomes. Rolen.

Guys who haven't hurt the team: Votto, Bruce, Stubbs, Heisey, Phillips, Hernandez, Hanigan, Lewis, Cairo.

Reds/Flyers Fan
07-28-2011, 05:45 PM
The Reds problems this year have been the vets. Arroyo. Volquez. Janish. Renteria. Gomes. Rolen.

Guys who haven't hurt the team: Votto, Bruce, Stubbs, Heisey, Phillips, Hernandez, Hanigan, Lewis, Cairo.

I would say that the lack of any sort of improvement from these two players, in particular, has played a major role in this disappointing season. In Stubbs' case, perhaps it's gross misuse of him in the batting order, but I don't see how you can say his failures haven't hurt this team.

MikeS21
07-28-2011, 06:23 PM
I would say that the lack of any sort of improvement from these two players, in particular, has played a major role in this disappointing season. In Stubbs' case, perhaps it's gross misuse of him in the batting order, but I don't see how you can say his failures haven't hurt this team.
Actually, I'm more disappointed in Bruce than I am in Stubbs. Take away his month of May, and Bruce has been underwheming.

Besides, I'm not sure you can blame any one part of this team. When the offense is good, the pitching is bad. When the pitching is lights out, the offense can't score runs. When the starting pitching is quality, the bullpen caves. When the starting pitching gives up 8 runs in two innings, the bullpen puts up zeros the rest of the game.

Kc61
07-28-2011, 06:30 PM
The Reds problems this year have been the vets. Arroyo. Volquez. Janish. Renteria. Gomes. Rolen.

Guys who haven't hurt the team: Votto, Bruce, Stubbs, Heisey, Phillips, Hernandez, Hanigan, Lewis, Cairo.

Whatever happened this year, the answer is not running a tryout camp next year for 25 inexperienced guys.

It's time for the Reds to get a couple of proven players. A hitter and a pitcher.

Griffey012
07-28-2011, 06:34 PM
We are should be and hopefully will be "BUYERS" at the trade deadline. I put "Buyers" in quotes because we should be buying for next year. Looking at potential Aces who are under contract like Ubaldo. Looking to acquire a middle of the order hitter who is under contract for next season or further, maybe make a run at Hanley Ramirez, who can fill the SS void, and possibly move to 3rd or 2nd down the road.

Get up prospects like Mez, Sappelt, Box, etc. Trade guys like Ramon because you have Mez. Hang onto someone like Cordero unless you get salary relief and a prospect who may be worthwhile. You are not entirely giving up on the season because this team does have the pieces to make an extended winning stretch.

You hang onto a guy like Cairo who ill be vital to the teams success next season. You look at the trade value of a wildcard like Stubbs, maybe his trade value is way above his on the field value due to his skillset (light tower power, lightning fast). It is very feasible a team may considerably over pay for him.

And lastly, CHAPMAN AS A STARTER. Send him down or start getting him stretched out in long relief, but make it a goal to get him a couple of starts by the end of the season under a fairly strict pitch count. This guy could be that dominant starter we need to anchor the rotation starting next season, or he may not, but we have to find out sooner than later.

757690
07-28-2011, 07:00 PM
The Cardinals just traded one of their best hitters for some average rental arms.

Weeks looks like he's out for the season.

The Reds just got swept by the Mets in a four game series at home.

The Pirates are the Pirates.

I still think the Reds can win the division, but only because someone has to. :)

dougdirt
07-28-2011, 07:28 PM
I still think the Reds can win the division, but only because someone has to. :)

Keep dreaming. If everyone goes 2-3 games over .500 the rest of the way, the Reds have to go 17-18 over .500 the rest of the way.

Edskin
07-28-2011, 07:32 PM
Really, really disappointing year. I could have seen a drop off for sure, but I did not expect to be playing meaningless games in late July-- this level of ineptitude has surprised me.

I'm not cashing in m chips on the core of this team or the organization as a whole; I like the strides we've made. But honestly, right now, it's hard to get excited about spring training 2012, when I'm just accepting that baseball season 2001 is over on July 28th.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-28-2011, 07:35 PM
But honestly, right now, it's hard to get excited about spring training 2012, when I'm just accepting that baseball season 2001 is over on July 28th.

Sure seems like 2001, doesn't it?

Edskin
07-28-2011, 07:36 PM
The Cardinals just traded one of their best hitters for some average rental arms.

Weeks looks like he's out for the season.

The Reds just got swept by the Mets in a four game series at home.

The Pirates are the Pirates.

I still think the Reds can win the division, but only because someone has to. :)

You are either the most optimistic human alive or a very delusional sports fan. I will keep my opinion on which one to myself :)

But if I were to humor you, there is one way and one way only I see us getting back in this thing... A fluke 2-3 weeks.

No way can the Reds sustain the pace we'd need for two full months.... But what if we got crazy hot for 10-15 games? Go nuts and sweep the Cubs and Stros next week... Something like that. Pile up 10 wins in 12 games or something and we'd probably be within 2-3 of the lead again and then you could at least make it interesting.

But that ain't gonna happen brotha

757690
07-28-2011, 07:51 PM
You are either the most optimistic human alive or a very delusional sports fan. I will keep my opinion on which one to myself :)

But if I were to humor you, there is one way and one way only I see us getting back in this thing... A fluke 2-3 weeks.

No way can the Reds sustain the pace we'd need for two full months.... But what if we got crazy hot for 10-15 games? Go nuts and sweep the Cubs and Stros next week... Something like that. Pile up 10 wins in 12 games or something and we'd probably be within 2-3 of the lead again and then you could at least make it interesting.

But that ain't gonna happen brotha

I was more trying to make fun of how pathetic the whole division is than being optimistic about the Reds chances.

However, the 2009 Reds had two separate 10-2 runs at the end of the season.

Will M
07-28-2011, 08:07 PM
2012:
C Mes/Hanigan
1B Votto
2B Phillips (option picked up)
SS Cozart - he'll be back sooner than later so we can get a bit of an extended look at him
3B Rolen when/if healthy but the Reds need another guy who can play here. ************Lets play Frazier over Cairo & see what we have.
LF MAJOR NEED for 2012 - a middle of the order thumper
CF Stubbs
RF Bruce

SP MAJOR NEED for 2012 - an ace
SP Cueto
SP Bailey (injury risk)
SP Leake
SP Chapman (on an innings limit)
SP Arroyo

RP Bray
RP Masset
RP Ondrusek
RP Lecure

2012 needs:
ace (really two aces but thats more fantasy that reality)
thumper
possibly SS (depending on how Cozart looks this year)
possibly 3B (depending on how Frazier looks this year)
probably one if not two good bullpen arms

who goes to get all that?
Wood
Volquez
Grandal
Alonso
Heisey
Sappelt
Hamilton if it gets us the ace or thumper

Kc61
07-28-2011, 08:10 PM
2012:
C Mes/Hanigan
1B Votto
2B Phillips (option picked up)
SS Cozart - he'll be back sooner than later so we can get a bit of an extended look at him
3B Rolen when/if healthy but the Reds need another guy who can play here. ************Lets play Frazier over Cairo & see what we have.
LF MAJOR NEED for 2012 - a middle of the order thumper
CF Stubbs
RF Bruce

SP MAJOR NEED for 2012 - an ace
SP Cueto
SP Bailey (injury risk)
SP Leake
SP Chapman (on an innings limit)
SP Arroyo

RP Bray
RP Masset
RP Ondrusek
RP Lecure

2012 needs:
ace (really two aces but thats more fantasy that reality)
thumper
possibly SS (depending on how Cozart looks this year)
possibly 3B (depending on how Frazier looks this year)
probably one if not two good bullpen arms

who goes to get all that?
Wood
Volquez
Grandal
Alonso
Heisey
Sappelt
Hamilton if it gets us the ace or thumper

Your team still lacks left handed hitting, assuming the thumper is right handed.

Trade Frazier, get a platoon third sacker who hits lefty. Someone who can platoon with Rolen. Since so many folks don't like Francisco, get a veteran instead. Also add some lefty bats for the bench.

MikeThierry
07-28-2011, 08:17 PM
The Cardinals just traded one of their best hitters for some average rental arms.

Weeks looks like he's out for the season.

The Reds just got swept by the Mets in a four game series at home.

The Pirates are the Pirates.

I still think the Reds can win the division, but only because someone has to. :)

Well the Cards traded one of their best POTENTIAL hitters for some arms that really help out the bullpen. The point is that the Cards traded a guy that GM's are still very high on but the Cards pretty much know he probably isn't going to live up to his potential, at least in St. Louis. They traded him knowing he could blossom but are taking a chance because they have the ability to win this year.

I think there becomes a point where waiting for potential can hurt teams. You guys have tons of prospects in your minors and up on the major league level that would fetch a some excellent players. That isn't to say destroy your farm system but at some point, teams have to take chances. I guess I'm not understanding the cautious approach by Walt considering how aggressive he was as the Cards GM. I look at a guy like Stubbs as a perfect trade chip that could get nice return yet it seems Cincy fans and the GM almost look at him as untouchable. At what point does all the hype turn into another BJ Upton? How long is everyone willing to wait on some of these prospects to realize potential?

kbrake
07-28-2011, 08:18 PM
I'd be looking into Hanley Ramirez, he sure seems to be burning every bridge possible with the Marlins.

MikeThierry
07-28-2011, 08:19 PM
I'd be looking into Hanley Ramirez, he sure seems to be burning every bridge possible with the Marlins.

Do you really want that headache?

Will M
07-28-2011, 08:25 PM
Your team still lacks left handed hitting, assuming the thumper is right handed.

Trade Frazier, get a platoon third sacker who hits lefty. Someone who can platoon with Rolen. Since so many folks don't like Francisco, get a veteran instead. Also add some lefty bats for the bench.

Chase Headley is a switch hitter who plays 3B & LF. if i recall he is available. he'd fit several needs:
1) since he has position flexibility it solves the "what to do with the 2nd third base guy when Rolen can play" problem
2) veteran
3) more lefty hitting

kbrake
07-28-2011, 08:30 PM
Do you really want that headache?

I think Dusty could get through to him.

MikeThierry
07-28-2011, 08:36 PM
I might also be speaking out school hear but I don't understand why some aren't seeing Rolen as a problem or an issue that needs to be addressed. Yes he still gives you good defense but it is clear, at least to me, that his offensive career is essentially over. He is just really too injured to be an effective offensive player and I don't see him all of a sudden finding a magic potion that will produce his numbers from the first half of last year. I got a ton of slack here earlier in the year when I proclaimed that David Freese would be a more productive player than Rolen this year. Freese missed something like 2 months with a broken hand yet has been almost as or as more productive as Rolen. I think the Reds really need to address this issue either now or in the off season. Again, I might be speaking out of turn here though.

Griffey012
07-28-2011, 08:56 PM
I might also be speaking out school hear but I don't understand why some aren't seeing Rolen as a problem or an issue that needs to be addressed. Yes he still gives you good defense but it is clear, at least to me, that his offensive career is essentially over. He is just really too injured to be an effective offensive player and I don't see him all of a sudden finding a magic potion that will produce his numbers from the first half of last year. I got a ton of slack here earlier in the year when I proclaimed that David Freese would be a more productive player than Rolen this year. Freese missed something like 2 months with a broken hand yet has been almost as or as more productive as Rolen. I think the Reds really need to address this issue either now or in the off season. Again, I might be speaking out of turn here though.

I think everyone agrees Rolen is a bit of the problem, but everyone also knows Jocketty is not going to bring in someone or relegate him to a bench role. Although maybe Rolen himself sees the end and will be willing to accept a part time role.

MikeThierry
07-28-2011, 08:59 PM
I think everyone agrees Rolen is a bit of the problem, but everyone also knows Jocketty is not going to bring in someone or relegate him to a bench role. Although maybe Rolen himself sees the end and will be willing to accept a part time role.

Good luck with that. He had that problem in St. Louis and we all know how that ended.

paintmered
07-28-2011, 09:07 PM
On a somewhat related note, what happened to Gonelong's annual prediction thread and why isn't in the prediction archives?

On second thought, I don't want to look through there and see how very wrong many of us were.

Griffey012
07-28-2011, 09:48 PM
Good luck with that. He had that problem in St. Louis and we all know how that ended.

He was also 32 years old then, now he is 36. That will factor into it a lot.

Ghosts of 1990
07-28-2011, 10:13 PM
We needed Stubbs and especially Bruce to step up mightily and neither did at all. I blame those two the most, along with Dusty's worst overall managerial decisions day in and day out of his career. He is too stubborn, and it's his undoing. Jocketty has been porous for 12 months now, there is no refuting it. He left these guys out to pasture with nothing.

dougdirt
07-28-2011, 10:26 PM
We needed Stubbs and especially Bruce to step up mightily and neither did at all. I blame those two the most, along with Dusty's worst overall managerial decisions day in and day out of his career. He is too stubborn, and it's his undoing. Jocketty has been porous for 12 months now, there is no refuting it. He left these guys out to pasture with nothing.
You, blaming Jay Bruce? I never would have guessed.

Blaming guys who are performing is silly. Blame the guys who have drastically underperformed. Rolen. Arroyo. Volquez. Those guys are monumentally more at fault for the Reds woes than Stubbs or Bruce have been. By miles.

kbrake
07-28-2011, 10:39 PM
You, blaming Jay Bruce? I never would have guessed.

Blaming guys who are performing is silly. Blame the guys who have drastically underperformed. Rolen. Arroyo. Volquez. Those guys are monumentally more at fault for the Reds woes than Stubbs or Bruce have been. By miles.

The city of Cincinnati always seems to complain about the guys who do preform while completely ignoring the ones who are actually the problem.

nate
07-28-2011, 10:39 PM
I'm not big on the "blame" game, mainly because I think this season is more nature and/or randomness than any individual player. However, I do think there have been problems:

1. Bronson Arroyo - I didn't expect him to be this bad. However, statistically, it's fascinating that his BB/9 matches his HR/9 (2.12.)

2. Edinson Volquez - Walks and the longball will haunt.

3. Not getting a SP (or two...hell, three) in the offseason - kind of hand in hand with the first 2 points.

4. Not playing Heisey more - he should've been the starter.

However, I think there's a lot of bad luck/nature in the Reds' fortunes this year. To me, it's not a matter of chemistry or leadership, at least, not to a significant degree. Chemistry is made better by winning (rather than the other way around) and the team largely has the same "leaders" they did last year...unless O-Cab took his leader epaulettes with him.

edabbs44
07-28-2011, 10:49 PM
The Reds problems this year have been the vets. Arroyo. Volquez. Janish. Renteria. Gomes. Rolen.

Guys who haven't hurt the team: Votto, Bruce, Stubbs, Heisey, Phillips, Hernandez, Hanigan, Lewis, Cairo.

I think your favoritism is showing through here. You use Bruce's +2 in OPS+ as proof of him being ok, yet Gomes has been even and he was an issue?

Hanigan is a minus 34 and he hasn't hurt the team?

You need to move Hanigan, Bruce and Stubbs up a level.

dougdirt
07-28-2011, 10:50 PM
I think your favoritism is showing through here. You use Bruce's +2 in OPS+ as proof of him being ok, yet Gomes has been even and he was an issue?

Hanigan is a minus 34 and he hasn't hurt?

You need to move Hanigan, Bruce and Stubbs up a level.

Gomes being even doesn't mean anything because Gomes isn't good to begin with, so the fact that he was even still doesn't mean he helped the team.

Hanigan being down stinks, but he still has probably been about league average overall, so that isn't hurting the team.

edabbs44
07-28-2011, 10:51 PM
Gomes being even doesn't mean anything because Gomes isn't good to begin with, so the fact that he was even still doesn't mean he helped the team.

Hanigan being down stinks, but he still has probably been about league average overall, so that isn't hurting the team.

Expectations need to be factored in. If Votto was league average, would you find him to not be hurting the team?

dougdirt
07-28-2011, 10:56 PM
Expectations need to be factored in. If Votto was league average, would you find him to not be hurting the team?

League average for a first baseman, or league average? There is a big difference between the two. If he were a league average first baseman, then no, he wouldn't be a reason the Reds are losing. If a team is league average at every position, they are probably going to win more than they lose.

And no, expectations don't need to be factored in. Guys who are performing above what their positional peers are performing at, are in no way hurting the team. They may not be helping the team as much as YOU wanted, but there is a giant difference between that and hurting the team.

What Rolen, Arroyo, Volquez and the shortstops have done this season is what has hurt the team.

edabbs44
07-28-2011, 11:01 PM
League average for a first baseman, or league average? There is a big difference between the two. If he were a league average first baseman, then no, he wouldn't be a reason the Reds are losing. If a team is league average at every position, they are probably going to win more than they lose.

And no, expectations don't need to be factored in. Guys who are performing above what their positional peers are performing at, are in no way hurting the team. They may not be helping the team as much as YOU wanted, but there is a giant difference between that and hurting the team.

What Rolen, Arroyo, Volquez and the shortstops have done this season is what has hurt the team.

MLB 3B average: .246/.311/.375
MLB LF average: .254/.319/.398

Scott Rolen: .242/.279/.397
Jonny Gomes: .211/.336/.399

dougdirt
07-28-2011, 11:03 PM
MLB 3B average: .246/.311/.375
MLB LF average: .254/.319/.398

Scott Rolen: .242/.279/.397
Jonny Gomes: .211/.336/.399

Jonny Gomes = terrible defensively even for a left fielder.

Scott Rolen = can't stay on the field, so his back up's also play, though that might not be a bad thing offensively. Defensively, Rolen still gets it done. At best though, he is probably league average.... when he is on the field. Of course, his misuse as a cleanup hitter kills him. But I guess that isn't his fault.

edabbs44
07-28-2011, 11:08 PM
Jonny Gomes = terrible defensively even for a left fielder.

Scott Rolen = can't stay on the field, so his back up's also play, though that might not be a bad thing offensively. Defensively, Rolen still gets it done. At best though, he is probably league average.... when he is on the field. Of course, his misuse as a cleanup hitter kills him. But I guess that isn't his fault.

Gomes really wasn't all that bad in the field this year. I think most would admit that he was decent. Last year down the stretch he really bottomed out, but he only had a few Gomesies that I can remember. I think he made most of the plays he should have.

But I do disagree with what you said earlier. Expectations are key here. You have to be able to factor these things in when you are building your team. If Chase Utley put up a league avg season for a 2B, that would be a bad thing for philly. Bruce has the talent and ceiling to do special things. It is reasonable for Cincy to expect him to hit that next level. That he hasn't done it yet is kind of an issue. Especially for a team who needs to get cost effective production in order to compete.

dougdirt
07-28-2011, 11:13 PM
Gomes really wasn't all that bad in the field this year. I think most would admit that he was decent. Last year down the stretch he really bottomed out, but he only had a few Gomesies that I can remember. I think he made most of the plays he should have.

But I do disagree with what you said earlier. Expectations are key here. You have to be able to factor these things in when you are building your team. If Chase Utley put up a league avg season for a 2B, that would be a bad thing for philly. Bruce has the talent and ceiling to do special things. It is reasonable for Cincy to expect him to hit that next level. That he hasn't done it yet is kind of an issue. Especially for a team who needs to get cost effective production in order to compete.

Jay Bruce is 21st in the NL in OPS. That is incredibly cost effective. What on Earth are you talking about?

Seriously, are we truly complaining about the guy with the 21st best OPS in the NL and throwing around words like "cost effective" when he is making chump change and inferring its not good enough?

fearofpopvol1
07-29-2011, 12:35 AM
I think there becomes a point where waiting for potential can hurt teams. You guys have tons of prospects in your minors and up on the major league level that would fetch a some excellent players. That isn't to say destroy your farm system but at some point, teams have to take chances. I guess I'm not understanding the cautious approach by Walt considering how aggressive he was as the Cards GM. I look at a guy like Stubbs as a perfect trade chip that could get nice return yet it seems Cincy fans and the GM almost look at him as untouchable. At what point does all the hype turn into another BJ Upton? How long is everyone willing to wait on some of these prospects to realize potential?

Walt didn't face some of the same financial constraints with St. Louis that he now does with the Reds. The Cards have always had more to spend. So, when you're trading off prospects, the money is going to matter. Most established players with their contracts are going to be paid more than prospects. Obviously, you can find a middle ground, but it's tougher now than it was before for Jocketty.

fearofpopvol1
07-29-2011, 12:50 AM
Gomes really wasn't all that bad in the field this year. I think most would admit that he was decent. Last year down the stretch he really bottomed out, but he only had a few Gomesies that I can remember. I think he made most of the plays he should have.

But I do disagree with what you said earlier. Expectations are key here. You have to be able to factor these things in when you are building your team. If Chase Utley put up a league avg season for a 2B, that would be a bad thing for philly. Bruce has the talent and ceiling to do special things. It is reasonable for Cincy to expect him to hit that next level. That he hasn't done it yet is kind of an issue. Especially for a team who needs to get cost effective production in order to compete.

I know you're the king of cherrypicking stats (especially regarding Gomes and Heisey), but Gomes was -17.7 UZR last year. And for half the plate appearances in 2009, he was -6.2. I think it's fair to say he's at least -10 UZR, probably more like -12. Anyway you cut it, that's not decent defensively. You can try to spin the fact that he's been decent this season any way you want, but the reality is he has never been on the positive side of UZR ever in his career.

MikeThierry
07-29-2011, 01:04 AM
Walt didn't face some of the same financial constraints with St. Louis that he now does with the Reds. The Cards have always had more to spend. So, when you're trading off prospects, the money is going to matter. Most established players with their contracts are going to be paid more than prospects. Obviously, you can find a middle ground, but it's tougher now than it was before for Jocketty.

Excellent point. I kind of forgot about Cincy's financial restraints. The Cards can go and risk giving away a prospect like Rasmus because they will spend the money to get the right players to replace him. Do you see the Reds being able to add payroll in the future?

fearofpopvol1
07-29-2011, 01:07 AM
Excellent point. I kind of forgot about Cincy's financial restraints. The Cards can go and risk giving away a prospect like Rasmus because they will spend the money to get the right players to replace him. Do you see the Reds being able to add payroll in the future?

I think if they had put together another winning season this year, they would have been on their way, but I think it's going to take the Reds winning another division title and winning a playoff series, maybe even a World Series to boost attendance enough to consider adding a larger chunk of payroll.

WVPacman
07-29-2011, 01:29 AM
Stubbs is one guy that absolutely makes my blood pressure sky rocket everytime I watch him bat.This guy has all the talent in the world to become a really good player.When players has speed like he does they go up there with a idea to lay down bunts,hit that ball in the ground so they can beat out that groundball. Not Stubbs thow! He goes up there swings at every pitch he see's and is never patience at the plate and most of the time he is swinging to the fences like a clean up hitter does.


I would send him down to the minors in a heartbeat for the rest of the year so he could learn what a leadoff hitter is suppose to do.By next year if he still is doing this crap then they have to come up with another idea and another leadoff hitter.

Edskin
07-29-2011, 01:51 AM
For kicks, I did a little computing.....Reds schedule is incredible "easy" in August, especially the first two weeks. I know those teams consider us easy as well, but that's not the point.

If we went 11-5 let's say and the Brewers, Cards, and Pirates all played around .500 (I have the Brewers one over, the Cards .500, and the Pirates two under) here is what the standings would look like

Brewers
Cardinals 2
Pirates 3
Reds 4

That would at least keep me interested.

Now, as far as getting that 11-5 mark.............

Mario-Rijo
07-29-2011, 02:11 AM
For kicks, I did a little computing.....Reds schedule is incredible "easy" in August, especially the first two weeks. I know those teams consider us easy as well, but that's not the point.

If we went 11-5 let's say and the Brewers, Cards, and Pirates all played around .500 (I have the Brewers one over, the Cards .500, and the Pirates two under) here is what the standings would look like

Brewers
Cardinals 2
Pirates 3
Reds 4

That would at least keep me interested.

Now, as far as getting that 11-5 mark.............

We are far from out of it IF we do something strong to help these guys. Here is another thing nobody has talked about, we have 25 more games left with NL Central Foes who with the exception of the Pirates we have winning records against. We can win this thing if we get some help, if not we can make it fun and interesting and keep it going into next year. If we bail now we lose the fans.

Slyder
07-29-2011, 02:57 AM
For kicks, I did a little computing.....Reds schedule is incredible "easy" in August, especially the first two weeks. I know those teams consider us easy as well, but that's not the point.

If we went 11-5 let's say and the Brewers, Cards, and Pirates all played around .500 (I have the Brewers one over, the Cards .500, and the Pirates two under) here is what the standings would look like

Brewers
Cardinals 2
Pirates 3
Reds 4

That would at least keep me interested.

Now, as far as getting that 11-5 mark.............

I highly doubt it unless there's some major shake up on this team that wakes it from the doldrums.

I would argue we need a change at the top of the lineup more than a big bat in the middle. More guys on base in front of (Insert big bat here) means that pitchers have to pitch them differently. My thoughts on Stubbs is that he is what he is, a guy with power and speed who is going to strike out. I think he over thinks what he is doing when he bats leads off and it messes with his head. A permanent move down in the lineup and let him get settled there. He could provide some of that power we need if he is able to move down in the order. Would you consider Jimmy Rollins on a 2 or 3 year deal as an option?

Has Alonso been played at 3b at all since being drafted?

I know I am probably the only one who will think this but would there be any way for us to get Starling Marte from the Pirates at the deadline? I saw him play here for the Power and have wished that the Reds would get him. With thoughts of him being a "leadoff guy of the future". He has the speed and career ba of .298, obp of .358, and a career success rate of 74% on stolen bases.

I really try to avoid suggesting trades because I don't follow the minors of most teams well enough to really know value outside of a select few because theyre mentioned here (Surkamp for Hernandez). But my goal would be 1 get a hammer to help Cueto at the top (Jimenez, Shields), 2 Pick my horses and cash out on some of the guys that are blocked (Grandal could fall in this category), 3 Upgrade SS or LF (Rollins).

Reds/Flyers Fan
07-29-2011, 03:24 AM
For kicks, I did a little computing.....Reds schedule is incredible "easy" in August, especially the first two weeks. I know those teams consider us easy as well, but that's not the point.

If we went 11-5 let's say and the Brewers, Cards, and Pirates all played around .500 (I have the Brewers one over, the Cards .500, and the Pirates two under) here is what the standings would look like

Brewers
Cardinals 2
Pirates 3
Reds 4

That would at least keep me interested.

Now, as far as getting that 11-5 mark.............

The Mets were supposed to be a breather after a brutal stretch, especially the last two games after Carlos Beltran was removed from the NY lineup.

That didn't exactly work out as planned.

edabbs44
07-29-2011, 07:58 AM
I know you're the king of cherrypicking stats (especially regarding Gomes and Heisey), but Gomes was -17.7 UZR last year. And for half the plate appearances in 2009, he was -6.2. I think it's fair to say he's at least -10 UZR, probably more like -12. Anyway you cut it, that's not decent defensively. You can try to spin the fact that he's been decent this season any way you want, but the reality is he has never been on the positive side of UZR ever in his career.

We are talking about how Gomes supposedly "hurt" the team this season. So I am just looking at what he did this season, not in 2009. Call it cherrypicking if you'd like, but I think it is somewhat more relevant. Especially since we are talking about past performance and not future performance.

And you can call my analysis cherrypicking if you'd like, but I applied similar logic to my analysis of Janish last year and called him a very possible sub .600 bat. That didn't go over too well at the time. Especially when he was over .700 last year. I was told that I was cherrypicking and that we have to look at the aggregate and that I was cutting up into small samples and all that.

edabbs44
07-29-2011, 08:03 AM
The Mets were supposed to be a breather after a brutal stretch, especially the last two games after Carlos Beltran was removed from the NY lineup.

That didn't exactly work out as planned.

Yep, was thinking the same thing. When you are one of those same "pushovers", it's hard to call anyone the same thing.

edabbs44
07-29-2011, 08:13 AM
Jay Bruce is 21st in the NL in OPS. That is incredibly cost effective. What on Earth are you talking about?

Seriously, are we truly complaining about the guy with the 21st best OPS in the NL and throwing around words like "cost effective" when he is making chump change and inferring its not good enough?

Bruce is/was a huge key to this team this season. They likely cannot afford the type of bat that he has the talent to be. So they need him to be that bat.

Plain and simple, he needs to be ahead of guys like Gaby Sanchez, Freddie Freeman and Michael Morse. He should be right there with Justin Upton. And not just because of one otherworldly stretch of games.

Edskin
07-29-2011, 09:47 AM
The Mets were supposed to be a breather after a brutal stretch, especially the last two games after Carlos Beltran was removed from the NY lineup.

That didn't exactly work out as planned.

That is why I put "easy" in quotes. No doubt teams can look at us and say the same thing, but after the Giants we have the Astros and Cubs who are awful, the Rockies who are not good and the Padres who stink. I said 11-5 would get us back in it, I'm thinking we go 9-7 or 8-8.

Ghosts of 1990
07-29-2011, 10:35 AM
Bruce is/was a huge key to this team this season. They likely cannot afford the type of bat that he has the talent to be. So they need him to be that bat.

Plain and simple, he needs to be ahead of guys like Gaby Sanchez, Freddie Freeman and Michael Morse. He should be right there with Justin Upton. And not just because of one otherworldly stretch of games.

Really, really well said.

smith288
07-29-2011, 10:39 AM
Stubbs is one guy that absolutely makes my blood pressure sky rocket everytime I watch him bat.This guy has all the talent in the world to become a really good player.When players has speed like he does they go up there with a idea to lay down bunts,hit that ball in the ground so they can beat out that groundball. Not Stubbs thow! He goes up there swings at every pitch he see's and is never patience at the plate and most of the time he is swinging to the fences like a clean up hitter does.


I would send him down to the minors in a heartbeat for the rest of the year so he could learn what a leadoff hitter is suppose to do.By next year if he still is doing this crap then they have to come up with another idea and another leadoff hitter.
Stubbs stinks on ice when he gets more than 2 strikes on him. He has to attack the first good pitch he sees or else he gets himself in a hole...that's the Stubbs quandary.

oneupper
07-29-2011, 12:12 PM
Stubbs stinks on ice when he gets more than 2 strikes on him. He has to attack the first good pitch he sees or else he gets himself in a hole...that's the Stubbs quandary.

Which also makes him more suited to hit down in the lineup, rather than leadoff.

He hit leadoff in only 34 games in 2010, the rest 6th or 7th mostly.
That seemed to work. Why mess with what's working?

HokieRed
07-29-2011, 12:21 PM
The problem with hitting Stubbs down in the order is that it does leave the team without a leadoff hitter. Everybody's made fun of Dusty's making up the lineup by positions, but there is something to this. Typically the leadoff hitter is going to come from one of 3 positions: CF, SS, 2b. You've got to get power from somewhere and it's usually the corners, which tends to mean those guys are not going to lead off, and C goes without saying. But if you look at next year's club, the SS is going, likely, to be a rookie, Cozart, who may be acceptable as a leadoff hitter but is probably not a guy you want there, at least until he's had a few hundred at-bats. Phillips is not ideal in the spot either, both because his OBP is generally not that high and you'd like to have his power a little lower down. That leaves the CF position--i.e. Stubbs--or LF, and if this is from within, say Sappelt. But then you have turned one of the two prime power positions on the field into a leadoff hitter's spot. To me, the conclusion's clear. Put Sappelt in the leadoff spot and in CF, and get a big bat for LF--or use Alonso or Votto there.

Slyder
07-29-2011, 12:53 PM
The problem with hitting Stubbs down in the order is that it does leave the team without a leadoff hitter. Everybody's made fun of Dusty's making up the lineup by positions, but there is something to this. Typically the leadoff hitter is going to come from one of 3 positions: CF, SS, 2b. You've got to get power from somewhere and it's usually the corners, which tends to mean those guys are not going to lead off, and C goes without saying. But if you look at next year's club, the SS is going, likely, to be a rookie, Cozart, who may be acceptable as a leadoff hitter but is probably not a guy you want there, at least until he's had a few hundred at-bats. Phillips is not ideal in the spot either, both because his OBP is generally not that high and you'd like to have his power a little lower down. That leaves the CF position--i.e. Stubbs--or LF, and if this is from within, say Sappelt. But then you have turned one of the two prime power positions on the field into a leadoff hitter's spot. To me, the conclusion's clear. Put Sappelt in the leadoff spot and in CF, and get a big bat for LF--or use Alonso or Votto there.

It's why I suggested going out and getting Jimmy Rollins if he were to hit Free Agency next year. Would that be a good enough option to move Stubbs down? Maybe try the following start of next year at the top...

1 Rollins SS
2 Sappelt LF/Phillips 2b

Has Alonso played 3b at all since being drafted? I thought I read he had played there a bit at Miami or is he "in case of emergency only".

HokieRed
07-29-2011, 01:38 PM
It's why I suggested going out and getting Jimmy Rollins if he were to hit Free Agency next year. Would that be a good enough option to move Stubbs down? Maybe try the following start of next year at the top...

1 Rollins SS
2 Sappelt LF/Phillips 2b

Has Alonso played 3b at all since being drafted? I thought I read he had played there a bit at Miami or is he "in case of emergency only".

Or let Phillips walk, go all out after Reyes, and move Cozart to 2b.

Slyder
07-29-2011, 01:59 PM
Or let Phillips walk, go all out after Reyes, and move Cozart to 2b.

Are you willing to pay Reyes in the ballpark of 6 years 120 mil to 7 years 140 mil? Because I guarentee you that with the type of year he has Boston will do almost ANYTHING to make him fit.

HokieRed
07-29-2011, 02:01 PM
Are you willing to pay Reyes in the ballpark of 6 years 120 mil to 7 years 140 mil? Because I guarentee you that with the type of year he has Boston will do almost ANYTHING to make him fit.

Pretty much agree here. I think he'll wind up in Boston. So we keep Phillips and put Sappelt in CF and the 1 spot in the lineup.

smith288
07-29-2011, 02:06 PM
Which also makes him more suited to hit down in the lineup, rather than leadoff.

He hit leadoff in only 34 games in 2010, the rest 6th or 7th mostly.
That seemed to work. Why mess with what's working?
Im sure not arguing that point. He's misused for sure.

Slyder
07-29-2011, 02:13 PM
Pretty much agree here. I think he'll wind up in Boston. So we keep Phillips and put Sappelt in CF and the 1 spot in the lineup.

It is why I mentioned Jimmy Rollins. If I had to guess you probably would be looking at a decent chunk of change for Rollins but no where near the investment that Reyes is likely to get. I was scanning possible FAs to be and thought what if you could get him for like 2 years at 12-16 mil total with a 3rd year option at something like 10-12 mil? Would he be worth that sort of risk?

_Sir_Charles_
07-29-2011, 02:42 PM
We are far from out of it IF we do something strong to help these guys. Here is another thing nobody has talked about, we have 25 more games left with NL Central Foes who with the exception of the Pirates we have winning records against. We can win this thing if we get some help, if not we can make it fun and interesting and keep it going into next year. If we bail now we lose the fans.

Well, from the looks of things MR...you and I are the only ones who still feel this way. I still think we end up winning the division. We simply have to play better ball. Now I agree with the original poster in the fact that we need to plan for next year. Any acquisitions we get now, must be with the longer view in mind. No rentals. But I have NOT given up on this season. And I don't think the players have either.

fearofpopvol1
07-29-2011, 05:35 PM
We are talking about how Gomes supposedly "hurt" the team this season. So I am just looking at what he did this season, not in 2009. Call it cherrypicking if you'd like, but I think it is somewhat more relevant. Especially since we are talking about past performance and not future performance.

And you can call my analysis cherrypicking if you'd like, but I applied similar logic to my analysis of Janish last year and called him a very possible sub .600 bat. That didn't go over too well at the time. Especially when he was over .700 last year. I was told that I was cherrypicking and that we have to look at the aggregate and that I was cutting up into small samples and all that.

Ignoring past tendencies (and a lot of them at that) is an incomplete exercise. It is cherrypicking, especially when you have a guy like Gomes who has been in the league since 2003. He's not likely to suddenly improve his defense.

Big Klu
07-30-2011, 03:16 AM
The problem with hitting Stubbs down in the order is that it does leave the team without a leadoff hitter. Everybody's made fun of Dusty's making up the lineup by positions, but there is something to this. Typically the leadoff hitter is going to come from one of 3 positions: CF, SS, 2b. You've got to get power from somewhere and it's usually the corners, which tends to mean those guys are not going to lead off, and C goes without saying. But if you look at next year's club, the SS is going, likely, to be a rookie, Cozart, who may be acceptable as a leadoff hitter but is probably not a guy you want there, at least until he's had a few hundred at-bats. Phillips is not ideal in the spot either, both because his OBP is generally not that high and you'd like to have his power a little lower down. That leaves the CF position--i.e. Stubbs--or LF, and if this is from within, say Sappelt. But then you have turned one of the two prime power positions on the field into a leadoff hitter's spot. To me, the conclusion's clear. Put Sappelt in the leadoff spot and in CF, and get a big bat for LF--or use Alonso or Votto there.

But if you can get power from CF (which Stubbs may be able to provide more consistently if he hits lower in the order), why can't you then get your leadoff hitter from a "traditional power" position? Does it really matter what position the power comes from as long as it's there? Furthermore, if Mesoraco provides the thump next year that a lot of folks on RedsZone think he is, then C becomes another power source. (Personally, I don't know if he will or not--admittedly I don't follow the minor leagues as closely as I should.)

mth123
07-30-2011, 03:44 AM
But if you can get power from CF (which Stubbs may be able to provide more consistently if he hits lower in the order), why can't you then get your leadoff hitter from a "traditional power" position? Does it really matter what position the power comes from as long as it's there? Furthermore, if Mesoraco provides the thump next year that a lot of folks on RedsZone think he is, then C becomes another power source. (Personally, I don't know if he will or not--admittedly I don't follow the minor leagues as closely as I should.)

I agree with the concept Klu, the probelm as I see it is that even though the team gets decent power from three of the four up the middle spots, none is middle of the order type power but more six or seven hole power. With Rolen also in that category, it leaves relatively few positions available to fill both the middle of the order and top of the order needs. Unless the team had a lead-off type at SS (they don't) that leaves them in the dilemma of using the one remaining position - Left Field - to fill one of the two needs while the other is left in a "make do" situation. IMO middle of the order is more important than lead-off right now, so I'd be looking for that from LF. Its possible that Mesoraco will be middle of the order in time, but I don't see him in that role in 2012. Even Johnny Bench was in the line-up for a few years before he moved there.

With that in mind, I'd be looking to move Stubbs in a deal to add that middle of the order LF or to upgrade the rotation and simply turn to Sappelt as my top of the order solution in CF. If somebody like Bourn could be acquired to fill CF and lead-off without removing other core pieces, then fine, but I'd use my main trade chips on pitching and legit clean-up power.

Big Klu
07-30-2011, 04:00 AM
I agree with the concept Klu, the probelm as I see it is that even though the team gets decent power from three of the four up the middle spots, none is middle of the order type power but more six or seven hole power. With Rolen also in that category, it leaves relatively few positions available to fill both the middle of the order and top of the order needs. Unless the team had a lead-off type at SS (they don't) that leaves them in the dilemma of using the one remaining position - Left Field - to fill one of the two needs while the other is left in a "make do" situation. IMO middle of the order is more important than lead-off right now, so I'd be looking for that from LF. Its possible that Mesoraco will be middle of the order in time, but I don't see him in that role in 2012. Even Johnny Bench was in the line-up for a few years before he moved there.

With that in mind, I'd be looking to move Stubbs in a deal to add that middle of the order LF or to upgrade the rotation and simply turn to Sappelt as my top of the order solution in CF. If somebody like Bourn could be acquired to fill CF and lead-off without removing other core pieces, then fine, but I'd use my main trade chips on pitching and legit clean-up power.

However, something that we may have to consider is that we may have to rethink what "middle of the order" power is in this post-steroid era. The slow-pitch softball offenses of the 90's and 00's are a thing of the past, and the 10's are starting to play out more like the 70's and 80's--without the reliance on the stolen base. (I could see a revival of the SB to some extent, though, if scoring totals continue to be suppressed.) If we reconsider what "middle of the order" power is, we may see that Stubbs might be pretty close to it.

mth123
07-30-2011, 04:23 AM
However, something that we may have to consider is that we may have to rethink what "middle of the order" power is in this post-steroid era. The slow-pitch softball offenses of the 90's and 00's are a thing of the past, and the 10's are starting to play out more like the 70's and 80's--without the reliance on the stolen base. (I could see a revival of the SB to some extent, though, if scoring totals continue to be suppressed.) If we reconsider what "middle of the order" power is, we may see that Stubbs might be pretty close to it.

Average is too low and as a result so is the slugging %. Ideallly a .500 slugging percentage could be had, but I'd settle for .450+ to go with Votto and Bruce. I don't think that will ever be Stubbs. Guys like Adam Dunn who hit 40 HRs can pull off the high slugging low average bit, but I don't see Stubbs doing it. Stubbs low batting average is holding him back from filling either role real well. It suppresses both his OBP and Slugging leaving him out as a candidate for either spot (though he walks enough that he's probably more acceptable in the lead-off spot than he would be in the middle). In an ideal line-up I'd have Stubbs/Phillips hitting 6/7 providing low order pop and letting them run wild on the bases in front of the bottom of the order who could probably use the help getting them around. But with the catchers, SS and Rolen also best suited for low in the order, its awfully crowded there. Its why they need to change the mix a bit and fill those spots with other types of players. IMO Stubbs is the one to move because a top of the order replacement is near ready in AAA and I think he has enough value to be a main piece in a deal for upgrades elsewhere.

HokieRed
07-30-2011, 10:21 AM
I think David Sappelt will solve the CF "problem" all by himself if given the chance. Here are his 23-24 year old numbers in comparison to Drew Stubbs' 23-24 year old numbers at AAA.
Stubbs (in something over 500 AB's): .272/.353/.379/.731
Sappelt in his 108 AAA AB's last year: ..324/.365/.481/.847
and in his 274 AB's this year: .310/.374/.464/.837
Apart from Stubbs' much better skills as a base stealer, the numbers favor Sappelt by a wide margin.

On a similar subject, since we're considering 2012, if our manager will give Yonder Alonso 100 AB's it will become apparent, too, how to solve the LF problem. As I've been saying since we drafted him: we got the right guy that year, figure out how to get his bat into the lineup, we'll regret it if we trade him. He can hit.

fearofpopvol1
08-01-2011, 02:06 AM
Isn't it funny...the Reds sweep the Giants and they are still back 6.5 as they were before the weekend started.

Ron Madden
08-01-2011, 02:12 AM
Isn't it funny...the Reds sweep the Giants and they are still back 6.5 as they were before the weekend started.

I see it as being more sad than funny.

reds44
08-01-2011, 02:16 AM
That's what happens when the other team is playing the Astros lol

The Voice of IH
08-01-2011, 05:10 AM
exactly, the Reds did a fantastic job over the weekend. Lets not get down on this team because they did not make up ground after a sweep. lets look at the near future and see that it is bright.

They get an 'easy' schedule consisting of the Astros and Cubs while the Brewers, Pirates and Cardinals are forced to fight among themselves.

Like it or not, this team is still in it for the long haul, plenty of time to go.

GAC
08-01-2011, 05:19 AM
exactly, the Reds did a fantastic job over the weekend. Lets not get down on this team because they did not make up ground after a sweep. lets look at the near future and see that it is bright.

They get an 'easy' schedule consisting of the Astros and Cubs while the Brewers, Pirates and Cardinals are forced to fight among themselves.

Like it or not, this team is still in it for the long haul, plenty of time to go.

This type of attitude will not be tolerated on here! :lol:

The Voice of IH
08-01-2011, 05:30 AM
This type of attitude will not be tolerated on here! :lol:

Sad part is you ain't lyin :lol:

Big Klu
08-01-2011, 11:44 AM
Actually, the Reds did make up some ground--a game on the Cardinals and three games on the Pirates. As long as they gain on somebody, it's a good weekend.

HokieRed
08-01-2011, 12:35 PM
Actually, the Reds did make up some ground--a game on the Cardinals and three games on the Pirates. As long as they gain on somebody, it's a good weekend.

Right. Task number one is to get past the Pirates while at least losing nothing on Mil.

The Voice of IH
08-01-2011, 12:42 PM
Plus, something also to remember is that that Milwaukee is currently on a six game win streak. They played the Cubs in three, and the Astros in three and won them all.

Now the Reds get their chance. They should do anything necessary to hold serve too.

fearofpopvol1
08-02-2011, 02:15 AM
7.5 back, no deal at the deadline, enough said. The Reds postseason hopes are over.

dougdirt
08-02-2011, 02:43 AM
7.5 back, no deal at the deadline, enough said. The Reds postseason hopes are over.

They were over before the deadline.

fearofpopvol1
08-02-2011, 02:51 AM
They were over before the deadline.

I agree, but this just cements it.

HokieRed
08-02-2011, 10:08 AM
Now I hope they get on full scale into preparing for 2012. Chapman to the rotation, Alonso and Frazier in the lineup every day--ditto Sappelt and Mes after September 1.

Roy Tucker
08-02-2011, 10:28 AM
All I'll say is that I disagree with those who say the season is over.

Are my expectations starting to dwindle? Well, yeah. I'm optimistic but also realistic. But what the heck good is it in saying its over? Giving up and throwing your hands up and saying I'm done with this team and this season? Where is the fun in that? A baseball season is mean to be enjoyed. You can't have ups without having downs. I don't see dropping back 15 yards and punting as part of that. I won't say its over till... its over.

RedlegJake
08-02-2011, 10:55 AM
I'm with Roy, it's not over til its over. It's looking grim and I'm discouraged but its not over. There have been "miracle" finishes before - so while I'm looking for a no-way-can-they-do-it miracle I'm not pulling any plugs. I wouldn't do anything that might inhibit my chances next year for sure, but I also wouldn't do anything that hurt this year's chances. Alonso's D in LF everyday would qualify as one of those things that would probably hurt this year. Beginning to stretch out Chapman now - that is something I'd get started on yesterday. Playing Frazier at 3B, again, I'd have done it already over Cairo. And despite his start yesterday, I'd still DL Bronson for the rest of the year and hope a long rest and off season of conditioning gets him back to form for next season. Give up, though? Not in the first week of August no matter what the math says to me...

OldXOhio
08-02-2011, 11:02 AM
I agree, but this just cements it.

As embarrassing as the game was, one loss, even to a AA team, doesn't really cement it. Just further confirms what we already knew about this lost season. This team has been lacking for months, with a management group just hoping all the wrinkles would magically go away.

medford
08-02-2011, 01:32 PM
All I'll say is that I disagree with those who say the season is over.

Are my expectations starting to dwindle? Well, yeah. I'm optimistic but also realistic. But what the heck good is it in saying its over? Giving up and throwing your hands up and saying I'm done with this team and this season? Where is the fun in that? A baseball season is mean to be enjoyed. You can't have ups without having downs. I don't see dropping back 15 yards and punting as part of that. I won't say its over till... its over.

The reds are 11 games under .500 over their last 69 games. 11 games under .500 in over 1/3 of the season. The last 1/3 of the season lays before them, but to expect that the same group of players is going to find the switch to play 11 games over .500 (or whatever is needed) the rest of the way is pie in the sky thinking. As a fan its always hoping for the best, but at some point you need to take your medication and build for the future, or in the case "next year".

1) Find a way to move Hernandez. you can't afford to offer him arbitration for fear that he'd accept arbitration and you'd be stuck w/ that salary or whatever part of it you could move. There's a contender out there somewhere that could use his services over the last 2 months. Doesn't matter what you get so much, more that you create a spot for Meserasco to start 2/3rds of the games going forward.

2) Start stretching out Chapman. Mike Leake is going to be running up the magical increased innings mark before the season is out. Start getting Mes some extended innings, so that by the time September roles around you can have him give you a handful of 5-6 inning starts and like Leake's workload decrease to keep the innings down and prevent arm injury going forward.

3) Play Yonder as often as possible, get Heisey 4 starts a week, 2 in LF, 1 in CF and 1 in RF w/ Yonder playing 4 days a week in LF and perhaps 1x every couple of weeks at 1b in place of Votto. Get him at bats, get him comfortable and decide if you can play him in LF next year.

4) Shut down Scott Rolen for the season, get his shoulder as healthy as possible for next year and start Todd Frazier every night, spelled occasionally by Cairo (who's certainly earned playing time). There is no reason to believe Scott Rolen will be able to handle 120+ games at 3b next year. Short of moving him to the bench full time, which isn't going to happen, they need to find him a solid caddie. Francisco and Frazier are the logical choices. Get Frasier as many games there as possible, get a feel for what he can be defensively and offensively. Once roster's expand, call up Fransisco for a handful of starts as well down there.

5) When Cozart comes off the DL start him at SS every day on out. Bat him 1st and see if he's got the ability to get on base enough. I love Drew Stubbs' game, but I believe he's much better suited down in the order where his power will come more into play and his slumps won't hurt near as much. This team doesn't really have a solid fit for the top of the order, and I have my doubts that Cozart is that guy, but at least give it a look and get a feel for what he can do in the show.

6) get ready for the winter meetings. If this team is serious about competing, it needs solutions at the top of the order, in LF in the 4 hole, at SS, at 3b, potentially 2b beyond next season, at the top of the rotation and back of the bullpen. I think many, if not most of those answers lie within house, which is why I think they need to start looking at those options now. They'll need to make a few moves similar to the Stillwell/Larkin debate in the 80s and move forward. Fransisco, Frazier or "other" at 3b beyond Rolen? Cozart or "other" at SS starting next year. Votto long term or trade bait. If long term, move Yonder, if trade bait keep Yonder. Mes or Grandal at Catcher, perhaps both. Chapmann to the rotation or the back of the pen? Volquez back to the rotation or trade bait?

fearofpopvol1
08-02-2011, 09:02 PM
All I'll say is that I disagree with those who say the season is over.

Are my expectations starting to dwindle? Well, yeah. I'm optimistic but also realistic. But what the heck good is it in saying its over? Giving up and throwing your hands up and saying I'm done with this team and this season? Where is the fun in that? A baseball season is mean to be enjoyed. You can't have ups without having downs. I don't see dropping back 15 yards and punting as part of that. I won't say its over till... its over.

I'm realistic too. I don't see the Reds with 2 months of baseball making up 7.5 games with 3 teams in front of them and no improvements to the team to speak of. Maybe if Arroyo had been better this year, maybe if Rolen had been better, maybe if Bailey was healthy, maybe if LF was productive, maybe if Cosart had played the whole year and not gotten injurred, maybe if Bruce and Stubbs took the next step.

fearofpopvol1
08-04-2011, 12:08 AM
Losing 2 out of 3 to the Astros is all you need to know about this team.

OldXOhio
08-04-2011, 12:33 AM
All I'll say is that I disagree with those who say the season is over.

Are my expectations starting to dwindle? Well, yeah. I'm optimistic but also realistic. But what the heck good is it in saying its over? Giving up and throwing your hands up and saying I'm done with this team and this season? Where is the fun in that? A baseball season is mean to be enjoyed. You can't have ups without having downs. I don't see dropping back 15 yards and punting as part of that. I won't say its over till... its over.

Very few are saying they're done w the Reds. Most are essentially saying that this team isn't enjoyable to watch. Seeing uninspired professional athletes regularly underperform is not my idea of fun.

WVRedsFan
08-04-2011, 12:50 AM
Very few are saying they're done w the Reds. Most are essentially saying that this team isn't enjoyable to watch. Seeing uninspired professional athletes regularly underperform is not my idea of fun.

True. I will watch, come to Cincy when I can and suffer through this. I've been a fan for nearly 50 (gasp) years and lived through 2000-2009. This isn't as bad as that. What we have here is a lot of underachievement and lack of vision by management, both on and off the field. As great as Walt Jocketty has been as a GM, he dropped the ball, blinded by 2010 and a hope and a prayer that certain players (Volquez, Renteria, Janish, Wood, Gomes, etc) would overachieve. Silly rabbit. Trix are for kids.

Reds/Flyers Fan
08-04-2011, 01:32 AM
Plus, something also to remember is that that Milwaukee is currently on a six game win streak. They played the Cubs in three, and the Astros in three and won them all.

Now the Reds get their chance. They should do anything necessary to hold serve too.

For the 243rd time this summer, the Reds blew their chance.

reds44
08-04-2011, 02:22 AM
Anybody noticed how amazingly bad Frazier's range was at third base on that play in the 7th tonight?

I know it was one play, but that was fall down range.

nate
08-04-2011, 10:31 AM
Anybody noticed how amazingly bad Frazier's range was at third base on that play in the 7th tonight?

I know it was one play, but that was fall down range.

Agreed. It didn't look like he had a good first step. I've adjusted his WoiP score down.

fearofpopvol1
08-05-2011, 07:45 PM
Losing 3 out of 4 to 2 of the worst teams in baseball is really laughable. This team and season have sailed. I know I sound like a broken record, but it's now pathetic.

Ghosts of 1990
08-05-2011, 08:12 PM
I can't believe it boys, but they've quit. They actually quit

Cedric
08-05-2011, 08:13 PM
I can't believe it boys, but they've quit. They actually quit

Sorry but this is just dumb, IMO. What player quit today? Name whom and when.

lollipopcurve
08-05-2011, 09:42 PM
Anybody noticed how amazingly bad Frazier's range was at third base on that play in the 7th tonight?

I know it was one play, but that was fall down range.

Agreed. Ball was right there and it looked like he was super slow to react. Hard hit ball but not a rocket.

Edskin
08-05-2011, 10:21 PM
Sorry but this is just dumb, IMO. What player quit today? Name whom and when.

Quit in the sense of literally not trying at all? No, but I think it is very clear that many players have begun to "drift" in terms of concentration, etc.. it's really the only way to explain the increase in mental lapses.

The team has collectively lost confidence and when that happens, other mental aspects start to crumble as well. Either there is a problem with focus, etc. at this point or this is the dumbest baseball team I've ever seen.

fearofpopvol1
08-05-2011, 10:28 PM
Can we at least get Mesoraco and Sappelt up and give them looks? Now?

edabbs44
08-05-2011, 10:29 PM
Can we at least get Mesoraco and Sappelt up and give them looks? Now?

Curious to see if Ramon gets through waivers.

fearofpopvol1
08-05-2011, 10:48 PM
Curious to see if Ramon gets through waivers.

I think so, though I think he should have been traded 6 days ago, but that's water on the bridge now.

If we're going to try to win next year, I really want to see Walt and Co. give long looks to who we have so we can really try to win next year.

OldXOhio
08-06-2011, 02:12 AM
Not sure about quitting, but some of the player's comments indicate they've resigned to losing. There's been no urgency by anyone on this team all season, why should there be any now?

mth123
08-06-2011, 02:23 AM
Not sure about quitting, but some of the player's comments indicate they've resigned to losing. There's been no urgency by anyone on this team all season, why should there be any now?

Following the GM's lead eh?

OldXOhio
08-06-2011, 12:23 PM
Following the GM's lead eh?

We have a GM?

Tom Servo
08-06-2011, 01:03 PM
You know what's bad? I even had a dream last night that I was following a marathon game between the Reds and the Indians where the Reds managed to make dumb mistakes and lose to the Tribe. Even in my DREAMS the Reds lose.

OldXOhio
08-06-2011, 02:28 PM
I had my own dream last nigth....the team finally admits this season is toast, mgmt decides to do things a little differently and give guys a trial for next season, all of the pressure is off and the Reds finally play the way many had thought they would this season. And we win at least 18 games in September. Crazy huh?

fearofpopvol1
08-06-2011, 05:33 PM
Sorry, make that 4 out of 5 losses to 2 of the worst teams in baseball! And a thrashing today.

Hey, at least our draft pick next year should be good.

mth123
08-06-2011, 09:23 PM
I think the Reds have been in denial to try and do the PT Barnum act with this one last homestand before the kiddies go back to school. Too bad for the marketing guys that the players didn't play along with the charade. Had the Reds had a decent road trip against the NL Central Roadkill, they may have been able to market the next homestand as a fight for a play-off spot. Now its just something to do as Summer winds down. I'm guessing they've been holding off on the AAA kids until after the homestand to keep up the 2011 charade. After that, we may see Ramon, Cordero and others head out of town.

Will M
08-07-2011, 12:42 AM
I think the Reds have been in denial to try and do the PT Barnum act with this one last homestand before the kiddies go back to school. Too bad for the marketing guys that the players didn't play along with the charade. Had the Reds had a decent road trip against the NL Central Roadkill, they may have been able to market the next homestand as a fight for a play-off spot. Now its just something to do as Summer winds down. I'm guessing they've been holding off on the AAA kids until after the homestand to keep up the 2011 charade. After that, we may see Ramon, Cordero and others head out of town.

this is a team that kept Jonny around so they could get some fans in for his bobble head night.

Big Klu
08-07-2011, 02:05 AM
this is a team that kept Jonny around so they could get some fans in for his bobble head night.

Do you have proof of this, or is that your opinion?

Will M
08-07-2011, 02:17 AM
Do you have proof of this, or is that your opinion?

its my opinion.

its also my opinion that the Reds didn't trade Ramon so they could spin the 'were still in a pennant race' story to the fans. thereby getting them to cough up their hard earned bucks to see the team.

its also my increasing suspicion that Bob C doesn't really care about winning. well, he wants to win enough to get the fans into the stadium. and if we somehow win it all thats a nice bonus but its not the #1 priority.

Big Klu
08-07-2011, 02:23 AM
its my opinion.

its also my opinion that the Reds didn't trade Ramon so they could spin the 'were still in a pennant race' story to the fans. thereby getting them to cough up their hard earned bucks to see the team.

its also my increasing suspicion that Bob C doesn't really care about winning. well, he wants to win enough to get the fans into the stadium. and if we somehow win it all thats a nice bonus but its not the #1 priority.

OK, just asking. I didn't know if you had heard something I hadn't.

I don't agree with you, but that's OK too.

Will M
08-07-2011, 02:35 AM
OK, just asking. I didn't know if you had heard something I hadn't.

I don't agree with you, but that's OK too.

fair enough.

i may be letting my frustration with the general ineptitude of the Reds management color my opinions of each individual decision.

Mario-Rijo
08-07-2011, 10:01 AM
its my opinion.

its also my opinion that the Reds didn't trade Ramon so they could spin the 'were still in a pennant race' story to the fans. thereby getting them to cough up their hard earned bucks to see the team.

its also my increasing suspicion that Bob C doesn't really care about winning. well, he wants to win enough to get the fans into the stadium. and if we somehow win it all thats a nice bonus but its not the #1 priority.

I have a lot of issues with the front office but that is one thing I just don't believe, Bob is a guy who truly wants to win. It's the how he has trouble with.