View Full Version : Trading for Contracts Beyond 1 year: Too Difficult?

07-30-2011, 12:32 AM
It gets confusing doesn't it?

Cliff Lee, 1 year
Roy Halladay, 1 year
CC, 1/2 year
Cliff Lee, 1/2 year
Beltran, 1/2 year

It's easier for both sides of a trade to say, this is what 1 year of this player is likely to be worth. When you get to two years, both sides start to wonder...what if he remains dominant? what if he becomes an albatross?

That cloudiness makes for bad bargaining, and that's where the Reds find themselves while looking for controlled players. Those outlaying years are confounding their efforts, it would seem. For example, if 1/2 year of CC is worth 1 A prospect, isn't 2-3+ years of Ubaldo worth 4+ A prospects? Well...not really. Maybe more, maybe less. There are likely percentages that teams run on their likelihood of success or failure, but from our perspective it is very difficult to know what's a fair price. For example, look at what people on Redszone want for 2+ years of Votto, 5+ years of Bruce, etc. It just seems like the Reds are really balling it out if they want to game on players with control beyond 2012. It's just not common. And it's just not good business. Unless, of course, you win the trade. . .