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Scrap Irony
07-30-2011, 11:26 AM
General assumptions:
1. Almost any closer is good enough to close games at a 70-80% rate.
2. It is better to have an effective middling starter than an effective middling closer.
3. Relievers almost always "find" an extra few mph on their fastballs because they need not save their stuff for later in the game.
4. It is a fools' errand to spend real money on a closer unless said closer saves games at a 88% rate or better.
5. In the history of baseball, failed, faded, stuff-starved, or older starters often find remarkable success as closers, as evidenced by Dennis Eckersley, Rick Aguilera, Mudcat Grant, Jason Isringhausen, and, of course, Mariano Rivera.

Specific reasoning:
1. Arroyo is a sunk cost and cannot be traded.
2. The Reds will have at least five starting candidates likely to perform better than Arroyo, in Cueto, Bailey, Wood, Leake, Volquez, Willis, perhaps Chapman, and others that may be acquired.
The move of Arroyo to closer would open the door for Chapman to be groomed as a starter.
3. Arroyo's control would assure that few runners get on base via the walk.
4. Arroyo's unorthodox pitching sequence, arm slot, and offerings would be difficult to hit, especially after facing "stuff" pitchers all game. (Of which the Reds have many)
5. Arroyo has an arm that is made for logging innings. This likely means he could handle the stress of pitching multiple days in a row.
6. Arroyo has the experience and mindset to be unflappable in tight situations, which should mean he'd be good at forgetting poor nights.

Thoughts?

757690
07-30-2011, 11:27 AM
It worked for Eckersely. Very similar pitcher.

mth123
07-30-2011, 11:50 AM
I don't hate it, but Arroyo would have to turn his back on his primary strength which is gobbling up innings. Can he pitch back to back days? Would it be too demoralizing if he came in and gave up game tieing or winning homers, cause it would probably happen a lot?

hebroncougar
07-30-2011, 11:56 AM
All those HR's sure would not look good in the bottom of the ninth.

traderumor
07-30-2011, 11:59 AM
Is he going to not throw meatball fastballs for strikes? That seems to be a problem with him being in the game period, regardless of where he appears.

Scrap Irony
07-30-2011, 12:21 PM
Arroyo's career HR rate is very similar to Eckersley's HR rate as a starter.

The long ball, while a problem for Arroyo as a starter, should theoretically be minimized by being able to air the ball out for a short period of time rather than an entire game. (See argument in opening post.)

Too, his rubber arm should prove just as valuable (as also discussed in the opening post) as a closer than as a starter.

BCubb2003
07-30-2011, 12:23 PM
He'd see it as a demotion, but I wonder if he could be a Scott Sullivan type. You could count on for two or three good innings every time to get you to the setup and closer.

savafan
07-30-2011, 12:31 PM
He'd see it as a demotion, but I wonder if he could be a Scott Sullivan type. You could count on for two or three good innings every time to get you to the setup and closer.

He'd be an expensive middle reliever.

BCubb2003
07-30-2011, 12:45 PM
He'd be an expensive middle reliever.

Understood, but he'd be an expensive #6 starter. In terms of sunk costs, put him where he'd do the most good.

nate
07-30-2011, 12:47 PM
Understood, but he'd be an expensive #6 starter. In terms of sunk costs, put him where he'd do the most good.

In the Cardinals starting staff?

:cool:

RedsManRick
07-30-2011, 01:53 PM
If Arroyo goes to the bullpen, I see no reason why he should close. There are better options. It's not like he's suddenly going to be able to bring the heat.

Scrap Irony
07-30-2011, 02:00 PM
If asked only to throw in one inning stints, he'd probably be able to bring it at 91-93 mph.

Not exactly blazing, but, mixed with that frisbee slider, the Uncle Charlie curve, and the weird arm angles, he'd be more like his old self (and Eck).

Too, I'd prefer those better options (Ondrusek, Masset, et al). to be used in high leverage situations in the latter innings, while Arroyo plays with a blank slate 9th inning.

I(heart)Freel
07-30-2011, 02:56 PM
He's got the haircut for it.

corkedbat
07-30-2011, 03:19 PM
I think I'd have to make it a demotion at this point nd just use him in the long roles. Don't see it haoppening though at that salary. I think he starts as long as he's a Red.

As for closer? I'm torn on Chapman. On one hand, i would like to see him given a shot at starting. He could become a dominant one and that is where the club would get the mist vakye fir him,

On the other hand, I tend to wonder if starting wouldn't cost him MPH and also cause him more problems with walks. I believe as a closer, he could become dominant for a decade or more and retainhis velocity better. I believe going back to the rotation might be a longer process than some think (a full year (2012) in AAA and 2013 before he starts to produce in that role for the Reds). Closing, I believe, would be easier for him and come pretty naturally. And while I don't disagreethat closing is somewhat over-rated, he'd be damn good at it.

PuffyPig
07-30-2011, 03:43 PM
My first reaction was that you are insane.

My second reaction is that maybe, just maybe, so am I.

REDblooded
07-30-2011, 04:27 PM
All those HR's sure would not look good in the bottom of the ninth.

They don't look any better in the first...

Team Clark
07-30-2011, 04:47 PM
If I were an opposing team I would be salivating if I knew Arroyo was the closer. Marginal stuff this year, for whatever reason, mixed with what I believe would be a lack of desire. gasoline meets fire.

BCubb2003
07-30-2011, 04:58 PM
He would remind me of Danny Graves (at his best, but without the ground balls).

Always Red
07-30-2011, 06:57 PM
I don't think Arroyo has Eck's FB, nor his control.

savafan
07-30-2011, 07:00 PM
As for closer? I'm torn on Chapman. On one hand, i would like to see him given a shot at starting. He could become a dominant one and that is where the club would get the mist vakye fir him,



What is a mist vakye fir? :confused:

Unassisted
07-30-2011, 07:03 PM
What is a mist vakye fir? :confused:
Autocorrect's version of "most value for?"

iPad user here. That's why I speak autocorrect. :D

camisadelgolf
07-30-2011, 07:46 PM
Conversation between Dusty Baker (dB) and Nick Masset (N&M):

dB: Hey, Nick. Want a toothpick? Grab a seat.
N&M: No, thanks, Dustmeister. What's up?
dB: Did you know that I played with Hank Aaron?
N&M: Yeah, you mentioned it like 6 times yesterday. 9 times the day before. You took out a page in the New York Times to announce it the day before that. You also keep texting my wife about it. And I don't know if it was you or not, but it's also spraypainted on my shed in giant letters.
dB: Right. Anyway, I played with Teh Hammer for a large portion of my career, and I learned a lot from him. You know what I learned?
N&M: Namedropping gets you everywhere?
dB: Actually, I learned that lesson from Cecil Upshaw. But you being a reliever, I'm sure you know all about Cecil Upshaw . . .
N&M: [blankly stares at Teh Dusty] Um, not really. The name sounds kind of familiar, I guess.
dB: [looks at Eninem in disgust] Oh. Well, I asked you in here to talk about Cecil Upshaw and becoming closer of the Cincinnati Reds. As you know, Cuckoo CoCo isn't going to be around forever, and we need someone to step in for him. You've made it known for quite some time that you'd like to be that guy--is that right?
N&M: Oh, yes, Mister Dusty. I want nothing more than to be given a chance to be closer of the Cincinnati Reds. I have been waiting years for this opportunity. Are you saying it's my time?
dB: No, that's why I mentioned Cecil Upshaw. Back when I played with Bad Henry--by the way, did you know I played with Hank Aaron some years ago?
N&M: YES. YES, I KNOW.
dB: Anyway, we didn't really believe in closers back then, but we used to rely on Knucksie to finish games out for us.
N&M: Knucksie? Like, Joe Nuxhall?
dB: No, Knucksie. Phil Niekro. Come on, Massie. You're killing me here. Anyway, he eventually transitioned to the rotation and Cecil Upshaw was counted on to close games out for us.
N&M: Oh, I get it. I'm not being promoted to closer because you want me in the rotation!
dB: No. There's no promotion. You're not going to the rotation, and we're never giving you a chance to close. Do you know what made Cecil Upshaw a successful closer?
N&M: He learned from Hall of Famer Phil Niekro?
dB: No, he didn't miss bats. That's why we're turning to Bronson Arroyo.
N&M: What? Bronson Arroyo? Like, Bronson "Most Earned Runs Allowed in the NL" Arroyo?
dB: Yeah, he's just had some bad luck is all. Dennis Eckersley went through some bad luck, too. Then look what happened--he ended up becoming the game's most dominant reliever.
N&M: Hahaha. Okay. That's funny. "April Fool's!" Bronson "I've Given Up 30 Home Runs in 21 Starts" Arroyo. Bronson "I Have a 5.58 ERA" Arroyo. I get it. You're so funny, Dusty. You really had me there. But really . . . I get first crack at being the closer next year?
dB: No, I'm serious. Once Bronnie settles into his new role, he will become a completely different pitcher. He will go from Jumbo to Terminator. You'll see.
N&M: What?
dB: Are you telling me you don't know Jim Nash? Jeff Reardon? THIS IS WHY YOU'RE NOT A CLOSER.
N&M: Wait, wait, wait . . . I've been outperforming CoCo Cordero ever since I got here, and you're telling me that I'm not going to get a chance to close because you think the league's worst pitcher, Bronson "I Have a 71 ERA+" Arroyo will suddenly pitch like a Hall of Famer when you demote him?
dB: Did you just use a "Sayburmetchrick"? Get out of my office.
N&M: With all due respect, this is messed up, Dusty.
dB: Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

_Sir_Charles_
07-30-2011, 08:08 PM
If Arroyo goes to the bullpen, I see no reason why he should close. There are better options. It's not like he's suddenly going to be able to bring the heat.

First off, why would he need to "bring the heat"? Closers don't have to be fireballers to be successful.

When I first read the title of this thread, I laughed. Then I started reading. You've swayed me guys. Intriguing idea.


Oh, and Cami...that was frickin' HILARIOUS! :lol:

camisadelgolf
07-30-2011, 08:41 PM
First off, why would he need to "bring the heat"? Closers don't have to be fireballers to be successful.

When I first read the title of this thread, I laughed. Then I started reading. You've swayed me guys. Intriguing idea.


Oh, and Cami...that was frickin' HILARIOUS! :lol:
Thanks. I'll be honest . . . I laugh out loud any time I imagine Dusty Baker talking to anyone. If I had any artistic talent, I'd start a Dusty Baker cartoon.

_Sir_Charles_
07-30-2011, 08:45 PM
Thanks. I'll be honest . . . I laugh out loud any time I imagine Dusty Baker talking to anyone. If I had any artistic talent, I'd start a Dusty Baker cartoon.

Well I was busting a gut. Nearly had soda shoot out my nose. :O)

Spitball
07-31-2011, 12:03 AM
I don't think Arroyo has Eck's FB, nor his control.

Eck is one of my favorites. He was having trouble striking out 6 per nine as a starter and getting through a line-up twice. I'd give Arroyo a shot. Arroyo does not have his control, but he has his tenacity.

Kc61
07-31-2011, 12:07 AM
Are you guys joking? Arroyo the closer? Mr. long ball?

You can't be serious.

Nah.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-31-2011, 12:08 AM
Isn't Arroyo always shaky early on and then settles down and gets in a groove? Not a good recipe for a closer.

I think Sam LeCure would be just as effective (if not more) than Coco. Plus, he's got the 'stache thing going so maybe he's a little flaky - which is a prerequisite for a closer.

cincinnati chili
07-31-2011, 12:10 AM
Is my memory failing me, or did Eckersley never have the same trouble getting lefties out that Arroyo's had throughout his career? I've always thought Arroyo was best suited for middle relief. He's exceeded my expectations by becoming a durable, useful (until this year) chuck-and-duck starter in Cincinnati.

Ron Madden
07-31-2011, 12:32 AM
Arroyo a closer? I can't see it happening but if it ever does I hope he's pitching for another team.

Griffey012
07-31-2011, 02:41 AM
Derek Lowe was a closer once...

hebroncougar
07-31-2011, 08:10 AM
They don't look any better in the first...

It's much easier to catch up after getting down a couple in the first than getting down a couple in the ninth.

traderumor
07-31-2011, 08:32 AM
Understood, but he'd be an expensive #6 starter. In terms of sunk costs, put him where he'd do the most good.and the least amount of damage ;)