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Scrap Irony
07-30-2011, 12:16 PM
General Assumptions:
1. The Reds will spend only up to an allocated budget numbers, probably somewhere between $80-90 million.
2. The Red budget without Phillips (assuming Cordero payout) is just over $50 million.
3. As of now, assuming no deals, Cincinnati has at last six likely arb eligible players (Masset, Janish, Arredondo, Bray, Volquez, and Bailey), which would raise payroll at least $6 million total.
4. Cincinnati needs at least one TOR starter and a big hitter to bat cleanup.
5. The Reds have five hitters best suited to hit either sixth or seventh in the lineup, in Phillips, Bruce, Heisey/Alonso, Stubbs, and Mesoraco/Hanigan/Hernandez.
6. Cincinnati needs a leadoff hitter with very good on-base percentage.
7. Lesser free agents, such as Kelly Johnson, Omar Infante, and Freddy Sanchez, will be cheaper and almost as productive.
8. Possible converted SS (or converting Cozart to 2B and adding a free agent SS) free agents are Jose Reyes, Rafael Furcal, Orlanda Cabrera, Jimmy Rollins, and Marco Scutaro. All but Reyes profiles to be much, much cheaper than Phillips.
9. Trading Phillips would provide valuable prospects.
10. Teams needing a 2B like Phillips to improve their team at the deadline include: San Francisco, Chicago (AL) (w/ Beckham moving to 3B), Detroit, Cleveland, Atlanta, St. Louis (hehe), and Pittsburgh (w/ Walker moving to 3B).

An example:
Reds dump Phillips to Chicago (AL) for Christian Marrero and Addison Reid. Reds sign Rafael Furcal to a two-year, $14 million contract to play SS and move Zack Cozart to 2B, with Miguel Cairo as backup.

Red lineup (assuming no deals for TOR starter or cleanup hitter):
Furcal SS
Cozart 2B
Votto 1B
Mesoraco C
Bruce RF
Rolen/ Frazier 3B
Alonso/ Heisey platoon LF
Stubbs CF

Thoughts?

oneupper
07-30-2011, 12:29 PM
Yeah, I'd consider this. Problem is, the expensive 2012 option and buyout makes Phillips less attractive for buyers. He's probably a rental.

Don't know about the other stuff, but Phillips has slowed down considerably. May be an "old" 30 (where have I head that before?).

That said, I don't see this happening. More likely is an Arroyo-type extension deal.
That could work, too, as long as he doesn't fall off a cliff (fingers crossed).

RedLegsToday
07-30-2011, 03:08 PM
You guys realize Furcal will be 34, cannot stay healthy and is hitting worse than Paul Janish this year, right?

oneupper
07-30-2011, 03:13 PM
You guys realize Furcal will be 34, cannot stay healthy and is hitting worse than Paul Janish this year, right?

Whoa, I'd consider a deal for Phillips.
The whole master plan that Scrap Irony put out there is a bit too much to digest in one sitting.
(responding to "you guys") :)

muddie
07-30-2011, 03:22 PM
As a matter of conversation...

Will Rhymes in Detroit is looking for a second base gig. He started in Detroit this year before being sent down to Toledo. I think he is ready to move up but Detroit is financially obligated to Carlos Guillen. Dave Dombrowski does not impress me as an overly ( fill in the blank here) GM. Look at a trade with Detroit for Rhymes. I don't think it would be costly at all.

RedLegsToday
07-30-2011, 03:23 PM
sorry oneupper, i was more responding to Scrap there. I like Brandon as a player, but, I'd rather they just pick up the option or trade him, as opposed to extending him. 2nd baseman don't age well in general, and it's not like Brandon is the 2nd coming of Joe Morgan or anything.

corkedbat
07-30-2011, 03:32 PM
Whoa, I'd consider a deal for Phillips.
The whole master plan that Scrap Irony put out there is a bit too much to digest in one sitting.
(responding to "you guys") :)

I was for picking up BP's option next year, but his falloff has me wondering though if it's worth that chunk of change (especiallywhen it could be used elsewhere. If he is dealt, I would have to get his replacement back in his deal (or another consumated at the same time) - don't see any adequate in-house option for at least two years.

What I'd ideally want as a replacement:

* Young
* Versatile - LH'd or SH for balance in the infield
* Almost as good as BP on D (if not equal
* Capable of hitting in one of the top two spots in the lineup (highend speed nice, but not necessary)
* Under club control for 3-4 more seasons

Relity? I think the Reds do pick up his option as a stopgap to let in-house options (Rodriguez/Puckett/Torreyes/Hamilton) get a year closer to ready.

corkedbat
07-30-2011, 03:37 PM
General Assumptions:
1. The Reds will spend only up to an allocated budget numbers, probably somewhere between $80-90 million.
2. The Red budget without Phillips (assuming Cordero payout) is just over $50 million.
3. As of now, assuming no deals, Cincinnati has at last six likely arb eligible players (Masset, Janish, Arredondo, Bray, Volquez, and Bailey), which would raise payroll at least $6 million total.
4. Cincinnati needs at least one TOR starter and a big hitter to bat cleanup.
5. The Reds have five hitters best suited to hit either sixth or seventh in the lineup, in Phillips, Bruce, Heisey/Alonso, Stubbs, and Mesoraco/Hanigan/Hernandez.
6. Cincinnati needs a leadoff hitter with very good on-base percentage.
7. Lesser free agents, such as Kelly Johnson, Omar Infante, and Freddy Sanchez, will be cheaper and almost as productive.
8. Possible converted SS (or converting Cozart to 2B and adding a free agent SS) free agents are Jose Reyes, Rafael Furcal, Orlanda Cabrera, Jimmy Rollins, and Marco Scutaro. All but Reyes profiles to be much, much cheaper than Phillips.
9. Trading Phillips would provide valuable prospects.
10. Teams needing a 2B like Phillips to improve their team at the deadline include: San Francisco, Chicago (AL) (w/ Beckham moving to 3B), Detroit, Cleveland, Atlanta, St. Louis (hehe), and Pittsburgh (w/ Walker moving to 3B).

An example:
Reds dump Phillips to Chicago (AL) for Christian Marrero and Addison Reid. Reds sign Rafael Furcal to a two-year, $14 million contract to play SS and move Zack Cozart to 2B, with Miguel Cairo as backup.

Red lineup (assuming no deals for TOR starter or cleanup hitter):
Furcal SS
Cozart 2B
Votto 1B
Mesoraco C
Bruce RF
Rolen/ Frazier 3B
Alonso/ Heisey platoon LF
Stubbs CF

Thoughts?

I've always loved Furcal and wanted to see him in a Reds uni, but just think age and injuries have taken their toll. I'd rather see the Cards spend prospects on him unless we can get him incredibly cheap.

IslandRed
07-30-2011, 04:48 PM
I was for picking up BP's option next year, but his falloff has me wondering though if it's worth that chunk of change (especiallywhen it could be used elsewhere. If he is dealt, I would have to get his replacement back in his deal (or another consumated at the same time) - don't see any adequate in-house option for at least two years.


At the risk of having missed something obvious... what falloff?

I'll agree with others that I'm not sure at this point I'd want to extend the contract beyond 2012. But as for 2012 -- well, if Phillips is traded to save money, we'd better be sure there's something to spend the money on that will make the team a lot better, because second base would get considerably worse. I believe Phillips is kind of taken for granted around here sometimes; he's a top-ten-in-MLB second baseman both at bat and in the field, and that's not an easy combo to find. At this point, FanGraphs has him headed for a near-5 WAR season.

mth123
07-30-2011, 05:03 PM
At the risk of having missed something obvious... what falloff?

I'll agree with others that I'm not sure at this point I'd want to extend the contract beyond 2012. But as for 2012 -- well, if Phillips is traded to save money, we'd better be sure there's something to spend the money on that will make the team a lot better, because second base would get considerably worse. I believe Phillips is kind of taken for granted around here sometimes; he's a top-ten-in-MLB second baseman both at bat and in the field, and that's not an easy combo to find. At this point, FanGraphs has him headed for a near-5 WAR season.

Agree and the drop from Phillips to an average 2nd basemen on defense would probably offset most of any run prevention that upgrading the rotation would provide. He's the best second basemen I've seen in Cincy and that includes watching great defenders like Oester, Helms, Boone, Morgan and Pokey. Only Pokey is in the same ballpark as Phillips.

PuffyPig
07-30-2011, 05:44 PM
I know Phillips is expensive, but he's one of the best 2B in the business.

We likely don't improve getting rid of Phillips.

Benihana
07-30-2011, 06:39 PM
I know Phillips is expensive, but he's one of the best 2B in the business.

We likely don't improve getting rid of Phillips.

x2

corkedbat
07-30-2011, 07:28 PM
I know Phillips is expensive, but he's one of the best 2B in the business.

We likely don't improve getting rid of Phillips.

Probably not and that's why i don't consider dealing him unless and adequate replacement (under club control for at least 2-3 years) is included the deal for Brandon or another made simmultaneously. In the end, i pick up the option (as I believe the Reds will). If by any chance, I can acquire a guy I like as a replacemtn and at the same time, get out from under that option so I can use the money for other purposes, I do it.

The is zero way that I don't pick up the option if i don't have a plan for 2B.

camisadelgolf
07-31-2011, 03:56 AM
I think what to do with BP is the biggest question the Reds have right now, and it's going to cause a lot of debate on the board for a long time.

No shortstop is going to convert to second base unless it's a matter of getting an everyday job. However, there are plenty of teams looking for shortstops, so I don't think Furcal, Rollins, Scutaro, Reyes, etc. are going to make the switch. That said, the only potential 2012 free agent who could even sniff at Phillips' production is Aaron Hill, and that seems very unlikely.

Ideally, the Reds could find a way to keep BP around through 2013 because in 2014, the Reds should have at least 1 of several second base prospects ready to produce, but BP will be looking for a long term deal, so that would be very difficult to do. Not only that, but the Reds might not be able to afford BP in 2013 due to Votto's huge raise anyway.

CrackerJack
07-31-2011, 04:05 AM
At the risk of having missed something obvious... what falloff?

I'll agree with others that I'm not sure at this point I'd want to extend the contract beyond 2012. But as for 2012 -- well, if Phillips is traded to save money, we'd better be sure there's something to spend the money on that will make the team a lot better, because second base would get considerably worse. I believe Phillips is kind of taken for granted around here sometimes; he's a top-ten-in-MLB second baseman both at bat and in the field, and that's not an easy combo to find. At this point, FanGraphs has him headed for a near-5 WAR season.

What IR said.

CrackerJack
07-31-2011, 04:09 AM
I know Phillips is expensive, but he's one of the best 2B in the business.

We likely don't improve getting rid of Phillips.


This as well. Durable, has more years in him...not a guy you let go right now, gotta spend $ to make $ to.