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View Full Version : Aroldis Chapman one batter away from a no-hitter



BCubb2003
07-31-2011, 09:26 AM
He's gone 8 2/3 innings without a hit. I wonder if ESPN will break in?

Ghosts of 1990
07-31-2011, 11:11 AM
Can't wait until he's a starter or a closer. He's passed the middle relief test!

Redhook
07-31-2011, 12:57 PM
Can't wait until he's a starter.

There, fixed it for you. If he's this team's closer, without being tried as a starter for a couple of years, everyone in upper management should lose their job.

OnBaseMachine
07-31-2011, 01:08 PM
There, fixed it for you. If he's this team's closer, without being tried as a starter for a couple of years, everyone in upper management should lose their job.

Agreed.

Raisor
07-31-2011, 02:30 PM
Agreed.

Agree with your agreed.

signalhome
07-31-2011, 02:35 PM
Agree with your agreed.

I'm in agreement with the agreement of the agreed.

Superdude
07-31-2011, 03:31 PM
I'm in agreement with the agreement of the agreed.

I'd like to join this band of mutual agreement.

PuffyPig
07-31-2011, 03:51 PM
If the next batter he faces gets a hit, I'm blaming you for jinxing him.....

SirFelixCat
07-31-2011, 03:59 PM
I'd like to join this band of mutual agreement.

As would I.:thumbup:

BCubb2003
07-31-2011, 04:01 PM
If the next batter he faces gets a hit, I'm blaming you for jinxing him.....

I hope none of his teammates mention it to him.

The Voice of IH
07-31-2011, 05:24 PM
As would I.:thumbup:

I agree with this agreement along with the other agreements.

I(heart)Freel
07-31-2011, 09:58 PM
I equally concur with the consensus.

One wonders if the 2012 Chapman starter experiment gave the FO pause when considering trading the farm for Jiminez.

marcshoe
07-31-2011, 10:36 PM
I would agree, but that seems redundant.

I want him in the rotation, fwiw.

LvJ
07-31-2011, 10:41 PM
This whole thread is redundant and repetitive and redundant and repetitive and redundant and repetitive and redundant and repetitive.

marcshoe
07-31-2011, 10:59 PM
This whole thread is redundant and repetitive and redundant and repetitive and redundant and repetitive and redundant and repetitive.

What you said.

And I want chapman in the rotation next year.

BCubb2003
07-31-2011, 11:06 PM
You guys are so agreeable you could pass a budget or something. Does Chapman have enough of a change-up yet? Does he need one? Do you think he can pace himself in the mid-90s and break 100 only when he needs to? Do you think he could be a Randy Johnson type?

marcshoe
07-31-2011, 11:13 PM
I think he needs to work a bit more on a true change-up in the offseason.

And I'm really encouraged by recent appearances to believe that he is willing to learn to pace himself and not throw every pitch 100 plus. I'd like to see a rotation next year of Cueto/Leake/Chapman/Bailey/major acquisition. This could change based on what's needed to get a 1 or 2 starter and a left field bat, but I think this would be a good foundation for a monster staff.

Raisor
08-01-2011, 10:41 AM
if Chapman is going to start, he needs to be in the minors until sometime near the ASB next year.

He's thrown 25 innings this year. Need to stretch him out.

klw
08-01-2011, 12:14 PM
Ugh I blew it, I should have concurred. Why didn't I concur?

Except with Raisor- I think stretching him out at this point could be done in two innings stretches here in the show. Start him off in shorter starts next year in AAA to stretch him out while limiting innings.

http://www.torrentsland.com/upload/preview/images/cr_actors/8/8/8/6117c94db8d794f6d53b38428ad68a9d.jpg

RFS62
08-01-2011, 12:32 PM
You guys are so agreeable you could pass a budget or something. Does Chapman have enough of a change-up yet? Does he need one? Do you think he can pace himself in the mid-90s and break 100 only when he needs to? Do you think he could be a Randy Johnson type?



I think pacing himself and only breaking 100 in spots will be much more effective. The threat of that heater makes everyone sit on it. Keeping hitters off balance and disrupting their timing is much more important than consistant 100 mph heat.

The range of speed from lowest to highest is most important, especially if he can hit the same arm slot and come close to looking the same in his delivery with his entire arsenal.

He also should launch a 105 mph heater 10 feet over the catchers head at least once in his first inning warmup, and act all confused and frustrated.

medford
08-01-2011, 12:44 PM
I would agree, but that seems redundant.

I want him in the rotation, fwiw.

+1

Slyder
08-01-2011, 02:15 PM
I think pacing himself and only breaking 100 in spots will be much more effective. The threat of that heater makes everyone sit on it. Keeping hitters off balance and disrupting their timing is much more important than consistant 100 mph heat.

The range of speed from lowest to highest is most important, especially if he can hit the same arm slot and come close to looking the same in his delivery with his entire arsenal.

He also should launch a 105 mph heater 10 feet over the catchers head at least once in his first inning warmup, and act all confused and frustrated.

Why do I have flashbacks to....

‪John Kruk vs. Randy Johnson‬‏ - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EnOFDWWsXfs)

And when he faced Larry Walker in another all star game?

CarolinaRedleg
08-01-2011, 02:24 PM
+1

I concur.

buckeyenut
08-01-2011, 02:31 PM
Why not have him coming in starting in 6th or 7th and throwing 2 innings now every 2-3 days for a couple of weeks, then move him to 3 innings. By mid september, he should be ready for a 5 inning stint starting.

Big Klu
08-01-2011, 10:42 PM
What does everyone think about maybe having Chapman throw some winter ball to stretch out and get his innings total up? I'm sure the Reds could find a team in the Dominican Republic for him so that Mario Soto could keep an eye on him.

Spitball
08-01-2011, 11:22 PM
You guys are so agreeable you could pass a budget or something. Does Chapman have enough of a change-up yet? Does he need one? Do you think he can pace himself in the mid-90s and break 100 only when he needs to? Do you think he could be a Randy Johnson type?

In his most dominating years, Randy Johnson basically dominated with his high 90s fastball and low 90s slider. He toyed with a change up but rarely needed it until he was a bit older. I think Chapman can effectively start with two pitches he can throw for strikes, but he needs to learn to control the game and not let it control him.

I agree he needs to be stretched out now. Send him to AAA now and let the process begin.

camisadelgolf
08-01-2011, 11:33 PM
Randy Johnson didn't really become an above-average starter until he was about 30 years old. Obviously, since the breakout came so late in Johnson's career, this means that he was using steroids, so until Chapman gets those, he's never going to have a WHIP under 1.40.

mth123
08-02-2011, 01:24 AM
What does everyone think about maybe having Chapman throw some winter ball to stretch out and get his innings total up? I'm sure the Reds could find a team in the Dominican Republic for him so that Mario Soto could keep an eye on him.

I think its a good idea and I've wondered about it myself. I'm just not sure how many. I think time for the arm to bounce back is very overlooked. Ideally he'd get about 75 IP in the winter and come into Spring training on a starter's workload, but if that stretches him into Late January, I thhink getting more rest before spring tarining is more important. Once they've decided this year is lost, they should start stretching him out and get 5 starts or so in September. That way he could shut it down in early to mid December and get some time nefore spring training. What I really don't want to see if him take a month off after 2011 is over and then startup in December and pitch to the end of the Winter season and go staright to Spring Training.

IslandRed
08-02-2011, 08:57 AM
Once they've decided this year is lost, they should start stretching him out and get 5 starts or so in September.

Good point. Assuming we haven't gone on a run and made the games important, September is a good time to do this. We'll need the extra bullpen arms on hand from roster expansion because he won't be getting deep into the games at first.

Or, we could begin the process sooner by sending him down this month, but unless the white flag comes out quickly, that probably won't happen.

BCubb2003
08-02-2011, 10:32 PM
Congratulations on the no-hitter.

Reds1
08-02-2011, 11:01 PM
Good point. Assuming we haven't gone on a run and made the games important, September is a good time to do this. We'll need the extra bullpen arms on hand from roster expansion because he won't be getting deep into the games at first.

Or, we could begin the process sooner by sending him down this month, but unless the white flag comes out quickly, that probably won't happen.

I was going to say the same thing. You need to make sure the Reds don't get back in this, but as soon as it's over I'd immediately start him. I wouldn't go crazy with him, but be happy with 4 and 5 inning outings in his 3rd or 4th start. He's probably go like 3 depending on how many pitches. He looks great right now.

Guacarock
08-02-2011, 11:30 PM
We'll know soon enough, but it's looking to me like the Reds are grooming Chapman as our next closer rather than entertaining any notions of returning him to the rotation next season.

I can understand the rationale behind this thinking if it's presumed that Chapman lacks the pitching repertoire, stamina or mental makeup to be an effective MLB starter at this point in time.

Other factors could be influencing the decision-making as well. Perhaps the team lacks the financial resources to spend $6-$12 million on Cordero's replacement, or has the resources but wants to allocate them elsewhere (proven SP, LF masher, etc.)

There also could be concerns that Chapman might be a 5-6 inning guy, if placed in the rotation in 2012. Possibly aggravating those concerns: How slowly Arroyo has rebounded from his health challenges this summer. Say Arroyo opens next year and shows signs of stabilizing, but still can't last past six innings into most games. Do we want to be paying him $12 million as a spot starter/long relief arm? Can we risk burning out our bullpen by having multiple starters incapable of going even reasonably close to the distance?

I'm not prepared yet to say whether Chapman, long-term, will be more effective for us as a starter or a closer. But if he is a lights-out closer in 2012, saving us a few close and crucial games a week, is that such a criminal use of his special talents? It's all conjecture, but what if he racks up 45-60 saves? Would that be any less dominant or difference-making than winning, say, 12-15 games?

Again, I'm still open either way or how we should proceed with Chapman. But I see a lot of folks arguing for moving him back into the rotation, and it doesn't seem to me like that's a foregone conclusion to happen or even a slam-dunk to be the right and most prudent course to take.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-02-2011, 11:41 PM
Other factors could be influencing the decision-making as well. Perhaps the team lacks the financial resources to spend $6-$12 million on Cordero's replacement, or has the resources but wants to allocate them elsewhere (proven SP, LF masher, etc.)

Was looking at the payroll for next year and noticed that everyone's raises (minus arb eligibles) will be covered with the money saved by letting Cordero walk ($12M - $1M buyout = $11M).

Arroyo, Phillips, Votto, Bruce, Cueto, Hanigan, etc.....all covered. And Cordero's replacement is already on the roster (Massett, Chapman, etc.).

VR
08-02-2011, 11:43 PM
In his most dominating years, Randy Johnson basically dominated with his high 90s fastball and low 90s slider. He toyed with a change up but rarely needed it until he was a bit older.

Let's not kid ourselves. Randy Johnson's mullet was reason #1 for his domination....followed distantly by his low 90's slider and high 90's fastball. You just don't see quality greasy mullets anymore.

REDblooded
08-02-2011, 11:48 PM
Let's not kid ourselves. Randy Johnson's mullet was reason #1 for his domination....followed distantly by his low 90's slider and high 90's fastball. You just don't see quality greasy mullets anymore.

Catch a game in Cinci and go to kings island... You'll see your share.

Chip R
08-02-2011, 11:52 PM
You just don't see quality greasy mullets anymore.

http://i.cdn.hbo.com/assets/images/series/eastbound-and-down/character/kenny-powers-1024.jpg

RedsManRick
08-03-2011, 12:28 AM
Randy Johnson didn't really become an above-average starter until he was about 30 years old. Obviously, since the breakout came so late in Johnson's career, this means that he was using steroids, so until Chapman gets those, he's never going to have a WHIP under 1.40.

And the winner to the best cross-thread snark goes to.... Mr. Golf Shirt!

Guacarock
08-03-2011, 12:29 AM
Was looking at the payroll for next year and noticed that everyone's raises (minus arb eligibles) will be covered with the money saved by letting Cordero walk ($12M - $1M buyout = $11M).

Arroyo, Phillips, Votto, Bruce, Cueto, Hanigan, etc.....all covered. And Cordero's replacement is already on the roster (Massett, Chapman, etc.).

Yes, if we go through the winter maintaining the status quo and simply plugging prospects into our gaps, next year's budget can remain roughly the same as this year's. But assuming 2012 could be the last year we can retain both Phillips and Votto, I see Jocketty fishing around and trying to add at least one veteran difference-maker to ensure we compete, as happened after Rolen arrived.

Will this be a guy making $10 million-plus? Doubtful. But a proven SP, or positional player in the $4-$8 million salary range might be do-able and obtainable via trade for a combination of our surplus prospects, ie, those we can't fit onto our roster within the foreseeable future. Given Jocketty's chase after Jimenez and Shields this summer, he's probably going to target a pitcher -- but if the right deal for a positional player surfaces, he could divert his attention that direction instead.

Yes, I realize he didn't pull the trigger last winter or this trading deadline, so some fans might conclude that this coming winter will be just as quiet. Perhaps so, but I'd be surprised if Jocketty lets another off-season go down without landing at least one significant catch. Might not be a slobberknocker, or a mega-blockbuster, but the acquisition of someone like Shields or the Twins' Baker or even the Orioles' Guthrie would certainly change our team dynamics moving forward.

Rojo
08-03-2011, 02:06 AM
But if he is a lights-out closer in 2012, saving us a few close and crucial games a week, is that such a criminal use of his special talents?

No.

Will M
08-03-2011, 02:20 AM
I suspect the Reds will leave Chapman in the pen & he will be our closer in 2012. Tonight was a night we would usually see Coco (even with a 4 run lead). instead Dusty got to see Chapman close out a game. i think we will see more of this going forward & even see Chapman get a couple of saves this year.

traderumor
08-03-2011, 10:44 AM
Chapman looks like he could be a closer, but I think he is much more valuable as an in-house rotation upgrade for 2012.

dunner13
08-03-2011, 10:49 AM
If the reds make chapman a closer I have to believe that they really feel he would struggle as a starter, either because of his makeup or his control. From comments the reds have made it seems like they would rather him start so I don't think there going to put him as closer unless theres a good reason to.

RedsManRick
08-03-2011, 11:14 AM
For reference, Mariano Rivera has averaged about 2.3 WAR per season as Yankees closer. If you want to adjust for leverage, the value of pitching in close games, you can double that to 4.4. (using a WPA/LI as a conversion factor)

That's obviously a very valuable player we'd be getting good value for what we're paying Chapman. Of course, that's if he's equal to the best closer in the history of baseball.

But what's the opportunity cost? Here's a list of starting pitchers who averaged at least 4.4 WAR per season between 2008 and 2010. (Fangraphs pitching WAR is FIP-based, FYI)



GS IP ERA FIP xFIP WAR
Roy Halladay 98 733.1 2.68 3.04 2.97 7.1
Cliff Lee 93 667.1 2.98 2.85 3.41 7.0
Tim Lincecum 98 660.2 2.83 2.69 3.00 6.9
Zack Greinke 98 651.2 3.25 3.05 3.46 6.5
CC Sabathia 103 720.2 3.07 3.27 3.48 6.4
Justin Verlande 101 665.1 3.84 3.27 3.76 6.0
Jon Lester 97 621.2 3.29 3.31 3.44 5.7
Dan Haren 101 680.1 3.47 3.33 3.23 5.7
Felix Hernandez 99 689 2.69 3.28 3.42 5.6
Ubaldo Jimenez 100 638.1 3.43 3.42 3.77 5.4
Adam Wainwright 87 595.1 2.68 3.16 3.35 4.7

I look at that group and come to a few conclusions:
- A closer has to put up an ERA about a run lower than a starter to have comparable value over the course of a season.
- An ace closer has about the same value as a solid #1 starter. (the corollary being that a mediocre closer is a like mediocre starter) Don't pay a 3.50 ERA closer any more than you'd pay a 4.50 ERA starter -- and probably less because it's harder to find a reliable 4.50 ERA starter than a 3.50 ERA reliever.
- No closer can have the value of a true ace. And this is the big one. Use a guy as a closer and you cap his value around 5 wins in his best possible season and 4 wins on average. As a Cy Young quality starter, he can give you 8 wins in his best season and 6.5 on average

My takeaway, particularly given that he's cost controlled, give Chapman an extended chance to start and only move him back to relief if he either can't handle starting physically and/or projects to be MUCH more effective in relief.

oregonred
08-03-2011, 12:31 PM
RMR nailed it with overall impact of an ace vs. a HOP closer. It is logical that a starter throwing 200IP will have an order of magnitude impact over an elite closer tossing 70 innings.

The other interesting thing that struck me was that 6 of the 11 guys on the list have been traded in the past 24 months. And that it is a virtual no brainer to pay a guy like Halladay $20M a season with a three year contract. And why didn't we get Grienke again... Still can't believe the Phils pulled that off with Halladay at the time.

IMO, the Reds must slot Chapman for the rotation in 2012 and if it doesn't work move him to the closer role for 2013. The upside and dynamic completely changes if he can become anywhere close to even a top 25 WAR starter over the next two seasons. He's making $6M a season, long past time to maximize his potential.

Chip R
08-03-2011, 01:04 PM
No closer can have the value of a true ace. And this is the big one. Use a guy as a closer and you cap his value around 5 wins in his best possible season and 4 wins on average. As a Cy Young quality starter, he can give you 8 wins in his best season and 6.5 on average

My takeaway, particularly given that he's cost controlled, give Chapman an extended chance to start and only move him back to relief if he either can't handle starting physically and/or projects to be MUCH more effective.

I have no disagreement with what you posted but I just believe that the Reds are going with Chapman as their closer in 2012 and beyond.

I believe this for a few reasons. The first being that if they were going to make him a starter they would have put him in long relief or given him spot starts instead of having him be the setup man. I dpubt they would leave it up to the Winter Leagues to develop him like that. Secondly, Cordero will be a free agent after the season. I believe that Dusty and Walt believe you have to have that prototypical closer on the team like Cordero. To them, Chapman must seem like a LH Goose Gossage. There are going to be several closers on the market after the year is over. With Champan making $4.7M next year, he'll be a lot cheaper than someone like K-Rod or Heath Bell or even Cordero. The Reds also must feel they have an adequate number of starting pitchers with Arroyo, Leake, Cueto, Bailey, Volquez and Wood. Throw Willis into the mix as well. Finally, there is really no one else on the team who is going to be the closer. I don't think they have faith in Masset or Ondrusek to close.

I may be totally wrong here but all that leads me to believe Chapman's the closer. If they think this, one thing that must scare the crap out of them is Chapman's Nuke LaLooshe impersonation earlier this year. If he's the closer and can't throw strikes, that's trouble.

traderumor
08-03-2011, 02:25 PM
I have no disagreement with what you posted but I just believe that the Reds are going with Chapman as their closer in 2012 and beyond.

I believe this for a few reasons. The first being that if they were going to make him a starter they would have put him in long relief or given him spot starts instead of having him be the setup man. I dpubt they would leave it up to the Winter Leagues to develop him like that. Secondly, Cordero will be a free agent after the season. I believe that Dusty and Walt believe you have to have that prototypical closer on the team like Cordero. To them, Chapman must seem like a LH Goose Gossage. There are going to be several closers on the market after the year is over. With Champan making $4.7M next year, he'll be a lot cheaper than someone like K-Rod or Heath Bell or even Cordero. The Reds also must feel they have an adequate number of starting pitchers with Arroyo, Leake, Cueto, Bailey, Volquez and Wood. Throw Willis into the mix as well. Finally, there is really no one else on the team who is going to be the closer. I don't think they have faith in Masset or Ondrusek to close.

I may be totally wrong here but all that leads me to believe Chapman's the closer. If they think this, one thing that must scare the crap out of them is Chapman's Nuke LaLooshe impersonation earlier this year. If he's the closer and can't throw strikes, that's trouble.I think the Reds are using Chapman where he has been most needed, which they view as the alternate setup man replacement for Arthur Rhodes this season. I haven't gotten the impression that is their long-term plan, and I think that the reason for not using him as a long reliever is their fear of irregular work for a valuable resource. As it turns out, he got irregular work as a setup man and I think that was the issue when the wheels came off, plus I think he had an injury, even if it was just arm fatigue.

I also think they believe that "stretching him out" is something that can happen in ST of 2012 if that is their decision for next year, that short relief this year will not hinder pegging him for the rotation as early as next season. That recipe seems to be working pretty well in other cities when someone goes from relief to the rotation.

I'm not real concerned that the wildness will return if the Reds use him regularly and he's healthy. It seems to have been a blip on the radar and each outing he just keeps on peppering the strike zone.

Roy Tucker
08-03-2011, 02:36 PM
Let's not kid ourselves. Randy Johnson's mullet was reason #1 for his domination....followed distantly by his low 90's slider and high 90's fastball. You just don't see quality greasy mullets anymore.

I always thought this glare over the glove had a little to do with it too...

http://www.sportsmemorabilia.com/image_php_914578.jpg

camisadelgolf
08-03-2011, 03:50 PM
And the winner to the best cross-thread snark goes to.... Mr. Golf Shirt!
:KoolAid:

RedsManRick
08-03-2011, 03:57 PM
IMO, the Reds must slot Chapman for the rotation in 2012 and if it doesn't work move him to the closer role for 2013. The upside and dynamic completely changes if he can become anywhere close to even a top 25 WAR starter over the next two seasons. He's making $6M a season, long past time to maximize his potential.

Exactly. Locking in floor production is what you do when you're either a 90+ win team or know you can buy the additional talent to get there. This is an 85 win team with very little financial wiggle room. It team needs to take advantage of upside opportunities. And giving Chapman an extended trial at starter is a low-risk, high upside move.

If you make him a closer now, you basically make him a reliever for the foreseeable future. I just don't see a scenario that could play out which would support turning him in to a starter down the road. If he succeeds as a closer, they'll think it'd be crazy to fix what's not broken. If he fails, they'll think he's not cut out to be a guy you can trust to give you crucial innings.

Reds Freak
08-03-2011, 04:04 PM
Would it be possible/wise for the Reds to have Chapman in the 2012 rotation until X number of innings and then slide him to the bullpen for the remainder of the year? This would give you April-July of Chapman in the rotation and August-October of Chapman in the bullpen. Assuming everything goes well, full-time rotation member in 2013.

The Voice of IH
08-03-2011, 04:09 PM
Would it be possible/wise for the Reds to have Chapman in the 2012 rotation until X number of innings and then slide him to the bullpen for the remainder of the year? This would give you April-July of Chapman in the rotation and August-October of Chapman in the bullpen. Assuming everything goes well, full-time rotation member in 2013.

I am interested in this as well.

Mike Leake did something like this last year, and maybe even this year. Start the Season in the bigs, Dominate while he can and when he runs out of juice shut him down.

You would get a lot more out of him this why rather then sending him down to Louisville and limiting his innings.

Scrap Irony
08-03-2011, 06:18 PM
Why not just make him the fifth starter and skip him whenever possible. That should conceivably make him arpound a 120-inning pitcher.

mth123
08-03-2011, 07:45 PM
Why not just make him the fifth starter and skip him whenever possible. That should conceivably make him arpound a 120-inning pitcher.

This is not ideal, but I think its the best plan. Also, the 30 inning jump from season to seaon rule of thumb really applies mostly to guys under 23. Chapman will be 24 on opening day and his body should be fully mature by then. I know the age component is kind of arbitrary and I'd still be cautious (and would prefer a full season starting in AAA but that won't happen now), but the risk is much less with a fully mature body. 22 Y/O Homer Bailey in 2009 = really risky, 24 Y/O Aroldis Chapan in 2012 = much less risky.If he'd have to stretch another 15 innings or so, I thinkit would be OK.

I'd still like to see him start stretching out and get some starts in September to push those innings up to the 75 or 80 range. As Klu said earlier, some innings in Winter Ball would priobably help as ong as he shuts it down to get some rest before spring.