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View Full Version : What will it take in August to still have a chance in September?



Captain Hook
07-31-2011, 07:44 PM
August brings a pretty easy schedule and with the Astros and Cubs coming up first the Reds could get back into the mix imo.So just how much ground do the Reds need to make up for you to feel they have a legitimate chance the final month to catch whoever is ahead of them.

Ghosts of 1990
07-31-2011, 07:55 PM
I voted 3. And if they can trim it to that come September... I won't be complaining no matter the end result. I'll be satisfied at this point just to have a reason to watch in Sept

dougdirt
07-31-2011, 08:21 PM
Brewers can go 1 game over the rest of the season (they have 53 games, so they have to go at least 1 over or under) and win 87 games. The Reds would have to go 36-19 in their final games to overcome the Brewers just winning one more game than they lose the rest of the way.

Of course this poll doesn't say anything about that.

HokieRed
07-31-2011, 08:24 PM
I think it's too late, but I voted 4. I'd like to see us get to 3 or 4 and see how the other clubs react. That, to me, is about what we need to hope for at this point.

kaldaniels
07-31-2011, 08:24 PM
Brewers can go 1 game over the rest of the season (they have 53 games, so they have to go at least 1 over or under) and win 87 games. The Reds would have to go 36-19 in their final games to overcome the Brewers just winning one more game than they lose the rest of the way.

Of course this poll doesn't say anything about that.

That is true. It is a rough road ahead. But do you have an answer for the poll?

Captain Hook
07-31-2011, 08:42 PM
Brewers can go 1 game over the rest of the season (they have 53 games, so they have to go at least 1 over or under) and win 87 games. The Reds would have to go 36-19 in their final games to overcome the Brewers just winning one more game than they lose the rest of the way.

Of course this poll doesn't say anything about that.

We know it's going to be difficult.I just don't think it's imposible and this is the most simple way to look at it.Despite all of the what ifs, 3 games back is still 3 games back.If you think the idea of the Reds getting back into it is just crazy talk then fine.I pretty much have given up as well but if come Sept. 1 I take a peak at the standings and find that the Reds are just 3 games back, I will think that there's still a chance.

VR
07-31-2011, 09:00 PM
Depends a bit on how many teams are ahead of them. I'd like to see them at least in 2nd place.....no more than 5 out. Anything can happen.

Captain Hook
07-31-2011, 09:03 PM
FWIW the Reds had a 3.5 game lead on the Brewers and Cardinals after the first week of the season.Isn't that the same as making up 3.5 games on two teams in one week?

Will M
07-31-2011, 09:37 PM
2/5ths of the Reds rotation is Arroyo & Willis. as much as i'll root for Dontrelle he doesn't seem like a guy who belongs in a rotation for a playoff team.
Arroyo just isn't getting it done for whatever reason.
add in the problems at 3B & LF.
add in Cozart's injury.
i just don't see a team good enough to make it to 90 wins this year. the guys who take the field most days just aren't good enough.

if i was the Reds GM and was told 'if you don't make the playoffs you are fired' here is what i'd do.
1) replace Arroyo with Volquez (ducks)
2) replace Willis with Wood. Willis goes to the pen
3) Cozart places 90% of the time when he comes back
4) Frazier gets a shot at 3B
5) i know Lewis has been playing pretty well but i'd go with Alonso in left most days

why? the Reds need so so much to go right. guys like Volquez or Alonso may flop but their upside is what the team needs.

if we fail (and we likely will no matter who plays) then retool for 2012.

Ron Madden
08-01-2011, 12:46 AM
What will it take in August to still have a chance in September?

A minor miracle.

reds44
08-01-2011, 12:53 AM
What will it take in August to still have a chance in September?

A minor miracle.
A lot of wins.

Reds are 53-55 right now.

Lets say it's going to take 88 wins for the Reds to get in.

3 @ Houston
3 @ Chicago
4 vs. Colorado
3 vs. San Diego
3 @ Washington
3 @ Pittsburgh
3 vs. Nationals
3 vs. Phillies

17-9 this month, which means you win every series but one.

70-63

Which would then put you in a spot where if you can go 18-11 in September and get you to 88 wins.

I don't think either of those are impossible numbers when you look at the Reds talent, but I've been saying that for 4 months now so maybe it is impossible.

88 wins isn't a lock to get you in either, but it'll give you a shot.

Now if the Reds rip off the next 6 against two awful teams, you're looking at 11-9 the rest of the month to hit 70 wins and all of a sudden the task becomes a lot easier.

It really all starts with these next two series. If they want to do anything it's 5-1 at the worst, 6-0 preferred.

Ron Madden
08-01-2011, 12:59 AM
A lot of wins.

Reds are 53-55 right now.

Lets say it's going to take 88 wins for the Reds to get in.

3 @ Houston
3 @ Chicago
4 vs. Colorado
3 vs. San Diego
3 @ Washington
3 @ Pittsburgh
3 vs. Nationals
3 vs. Phillies

17-9 this month, which means you win every series but one.

70-63

Which would then put you in a spot where if you can go 18-11 in September and get you to 88 wins.I don't think either of those are impossible numbers when you look at the Reds talent, but I've been saying that for 4 months now so maybe it is impossible.

88 wins isn't a lock to get you in either, but it'll give you a shot.

Now if the Reds rip off the next 6 against two awful teams, you're looking at 11-9 the rest of the month to hit 70 wins and all of a sudden the task becomes a lot easier.It really all starts with these next two series. If they want to do anything it's 5-1 at the worst, 6-0 preferred.

Believe me, I do hope all of this happens. I really do but I wouldn't bet on it.

reds44
08-01-2011, 01:02 AM
Believe me, I do hope all of this happens. I really do but I wouldn't bet on it.
Oh I'm not either. I refuse to get my hopes up. I pretty much quit on this team in the middle of the Mets series. I went like 5 straight games without watching a pitch of Reds baseball. Even in the awful days I didn't do that. I just couldn't stomach it.

The Reds have a chance to position themselves in a spot where they can make a move in the standings this week. If they take care of business, they'll be in a spot where they don't have to play at a ridiculous pace.

We'll see what happens.

kaldaniels
08-01-2011, 01:02 AM
And lets not kid ourselves, if the Brewers play well, it is over. However with Weeks out, what if they play a notch or two under .500 the rest of the way...that is when it gets interesting. Not counting on it, but I'd give it a 25 percent chance of happening. (Bear in mind the Brew only have a +5 run diff...not the best omen for them projecting forward)

Ron Madden
08-01-2011, 01:07 AM
Oh I'm not either. I refuse to get my hopes up. I pretty much quit on this team in the middle of the Mets series. I went like 5 straight games without watching a pitch of Reds baseball. Even in the awful days I didn't do that. I just couldn't stomach it.

The Reds have a chance to position themselves in a spot where they can make a move in the standings this week. If they take care of business, they'll be in a spot where they don't have to play at a ridiculous pace.

We'll see what happens.



I still have hopes for the Reds pulling it off but right now it's more hope than fath. :)

reds44
08-01-2011, 01:08 AM
And lets not kid ourselves, if the Brewers play well, it is over. However with Weeks out, what if they play a notch or two under .500 the rest of the way...that is when it gets interesting. Not counting on it, but I'd give it a 25 percent chance of happening. (Bear in mind the Brew only have a +5 run diff...not the best omen for them projecting forward)
And the good news is the Brewers still play the Cardinals 12 times this season, all of which are before September 8th. As much as I'm not worried about the Pirates, they still play the Brewers 9 more times as well. The Cardinals and Pirates also play each other nine more times.

Somebody has to lose those games, so the Reds are going to have plenty of chances to pick up ground on the teams in front of them.

The Reds only have 3 vs. the Brewers, 3 vs the Cardinals, and 6 vs. the Pirates. So while the teams in front of the Reds are beating up on each other, the Reds need to just win games.

Take advantage of the soft August schedule and beat the Brewers and Cardinals in the few chances you have against them.

AtomicDumpling
08-01-2011, 01:20 AM
I would vote 6 games back if there were only one team in front of them. If there are two or three teams in front of them I would vote 3 games back. I predict come September 1st there will only be one team in front of them.

CarolinaRedleg
08-01-2011, 02:40 PM
It has happened before. Remember 2007: Colorado was 6 games back, behind 4 teams on Sept. 1. Of course, they caught lightning in a bottle and won 21 of 22 to close the season. The Reds haven't shown they can do something remotely similar, but hey...
http://insideoutandbackwards.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/lloyd-christmas.jpg
"So you're saying there's a chance?"

The Voice of IH
08-01-2011, 03:38 PM
I hit two but I meant to hit three.

I think they find themselves in very good posistion at the end of August. I love how the season is playing out for them.

Take a look at Reds44 post and you have my opinion as well.

dsmith421
08-01-2011, 03:47 PM
I love how the season is playing out for them.

Really? You "love" 53-55 on August 1? I figured they'd be 10-15 over at this point.

bucksfan2
08-01-2011, 03:49 PM
The Reds next 16 games are against teams that have pretty much mailed it in. The Astros, Cubs, Rockies, Padres, and Nats. If the Reds have any plans of getting back into the race they need to beat up on these teams. This is an opportunity for the Reds to get on a roll and get back in the thick of the race.

Guacarock
08-01-2011, 04:00 PM
The Reds next 16 games are against teams that have pretty much mailed it in. The Astros, Cubs, Rockies, Padres, and Nats. If the Reds have any plans of getting back into the race they need to beat up on these teams. This is an opportunity for the Reds to get on a roll and get back in the thick of the race.

I wish we had someone other than Arroyo pitching for us tonight against the Astros. Arroyo has allowed four or more earned runs in 7 of his last 8 starts. His performance has been just dreadful, especially considering he has rarely lasted more than five or six innings in each of those starts.

I don't care how much he's getting paid, or whether the team doctors have cleared his health. Given his bloated 7-Plus ERA over the past month, he doesn't belong in our rotation. The more games he starts for us, the less likely we are to remain competitive, even playing against the Astros, Cubs, Rockies, Padres and Nats.

I'm not saying he's permanently washed up. But he does need a few weeks off or a different assignment until he can regather his strength and clear his head.

The Voice of IH
08-01-2011, 06:57 PM
Really? You "love" 53-55 on August 1?

Of course not :lol:.

What I meant is that though they are 53-55, given the lesser competition coming up and the way the schedule works out for the other teams, they are still very much in it.

That is what I meant.

RedLegSuperStar
08-01-2011, 07:06 PM
With the way the 3 teams above us are playing and us not being able to gain any ground.. I'm going with 2 games. I think Cueto and Leake need to continue their dominance aswell as the bat of Joey Votto has come around and has won him NL player of the week. Bruce who has a hit in the last 9 out of 10 games is another huge piece to the puzzle.. but not as vital as Drew Stubbs. If Stubbs makes contact he is already increasing his chances of getting on base. His speed alone maybe enough to beat out those lazy infield hits or could be a shot in the corner of the OF that leads him all the way home. He cuts down on the K's and just makes contact make this team scores more runs and wins these one run games.