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SirFelixCat
08-01-2011, 12:24 AM
With the non-waiver deadline having come and gone and no pitchers moved, I wonder how/where Willis fits in the picture. Small sample size and all that, but assuming that he pitches well the rest of the way, something's got to give in the off-season, right?

Cueto
Bailey
Leake
Arroyo
Willis
Wood
Volquez
Chapman


I understand having depth, but that's a logjam. Obviously, assuming all are healthy, Cueto, Bailey, & Leake are here for the long haul. With Arroyo's contract extension, you'd think he is too (not a given, though). Most everyone is hoping and praying that Chapman is moved to the rotation. So what gives for next year?

Thoughts?

Slyder
08-01-2011, 01:02 AM
Of those listed:

Cueto
Leake
Bailey
Willis

On those I would like to see 2012. The problem is with the year Willis has had so far he is going to go for one more big cash payday elsewhere with how many teams need pitching. I truely do not expect him to be in Cincy next year.

mdccclxix
08-01-2011, 02:30 AM
At 2,3,4 million dollars, I think he might be a little rich for the Reds blood, honestly. I don't expect him to resign, although I'm sure he'd like to give the Reds the best shot at it, if he ends up with the leverage. I think it's still early to tell if he's turned a corner. All I know is keep him in the NL, dude can rake.

mdccclxix
08-01-2011, 02:36 AM
Cueto
Leake
Bailey
Arroyo
Chapman

Enough Volquez nonsense. Wood is a flyball pitcher, he's got to go as well. It'd be tough to get real value for him though. I think he'd thrive in Seattle, for example.

reds44
08-01-2011, 02:53 AM
Cueto
Leake
Bailey
Arroyo
Chapman

Enough Volquez nonsense. Wood is a flyball pitcher, he's got to go as well. It'd be tough to get real value for him though. I think he'd thrive in Seattle, for example.
I agree with this, except I think you can get some value for Wood still, and if you can't just keep him around for insurance.

The Voice of IH
08-01-2011, 04:02 AM
It makes me sick that Arroyo is under contract for as long as he is. I hope we can figure out a way to dump him soon. I appreciate the things he did for the Reds in the past 5 or 6 years but he is single handily creating a log jam and not allowing our (what I see as DOMINATE) young pitching to blossom.

Volquez has not panned out as well as we would hope. With the depth that this team has I don't see him getting too many more chances left. I would like to send him away also. Though I think the price should be somewhat high as he is young and has that nasty stuff scouts always talk about. I think a team would have to 'take a chance on him' to lure him away from the organization.

Willis is a nice story, but he has not proved anything yet. I hope we can ride him right into the playoffs this year but it is likily that this will run out of steam. Wood is the guy I feel the franchise needs to focus on. Wood is a left hander that has great stuff and is cool under pressure. He is a guy I see in the rotation down the road.

Obviously I am with the rest of the group when it comes to Chapman. He is a future starter. I was for him being in the bullpen this year though, because of the logjam that they currently have. But I see him making the transition into his new role as early as next year.

Overall, here is my rotation for the 2012 season.

Cueto
Leake
Chapman
Bailey
Wood

Willis either bust or gone, Arroyo hopefully 'dumped' or sent to the bullpen. Volquez traded away to a team willing to take a chance.

I am not sure about you guys, but I get excited when I see that rotation.

jojo
08-01-2011, 07:58 AM
On those I would like to see 2012. The problem is with the year Willis has had so far he is going to go for one more big cash payday elsewhere with how many teams need pitching. I truely do not expect him to be in Cincy next year.

That's probably not very high on the list of worries.

Big Klu
08-01-2011, 10:59 AM
It makes me sick that Arroyo is under contract for as long as he is. I hope we can figure out a way to dump him soon. I appreciate the things he did for the Reds in the past 5 or 6 years but he is single handily creating a log jam and not allowing our (what I see as DOMINATE) young pitching to blossom.

Volquez has not panned out as well as we would hope. With the depth that this team has I don't see him getting too many more chances left. I would like to send him away also. Though I think the price should be somewhat high as he is young and has that nasty stuff scouts always talk about. I think a team would have to 'take a chance on him' to lure him away from the organization.

Willis is a nice story, but he has not proved anything yet. I hope we can ride him right into the playoffs this year but it is likily that this will run out of steam. Wood is the guy I feel the franchise needs to focus on. Wood is a left hander that has great stuff and is cool under pressure. He is a guy I see in the rotation down the road.

Obviously I am with the rest of the group when it comes to Chapman. He is a future starter. I was for him being in the bullpen this year though, because of the logjam that they currently have. But I see him making the transition into his new role as early as next year.

Overall, here is my rotation for the 2012 season.

Cueto
Leake
Chapman
Bailey
Wood

Willis either bust or gone, Arroyo hopefully 'dumped' or sent to the bullpen. Volquez traded away to a team willing to take a chance.

I am not sure about you guys, but I get excited when I see that rotation.

Volquez is not "young" anymore. He is 28. (I realize that 28 is still young in absolute terms, but not in baseball terms. He's not a prospect anymore.) Actually, he's only a year younger than Willis.

_Sir_Charles_
08-01-2011, 11:09 AM
With the non-waiver deadline having come and gone and no pitchers moved, I wonder how/where Willis fits in the picture. Small sample size and all that, but assuming that he pitches well the rest of the way, something's got to give in the off-season, right?

Cueto
Bailey
Leake
Arroyo
Willis
Wood
Volquez
Chapman


I understand having depth, but that's a logjam. Obviously, assuming all are healthy, Cueto, Bailey, & Leake are here for the long haul. With Arroyo's contract extension, you'd think he is too (not a given, though). Most everyone is hoping and praying that Chapman is moved to the rotation. So what gives for next year?

Thoughts?

Wood currently isn't doing anything to help himself, so for now...he's off my list.

Volquez is currently throwing surprisingly well at Louisville. But I have no faith in him doing so with the Reds. He's off my list as well and I hope he continues to tear it up at AAA and we get somebody to bite on him.

So that leaves the biggest question...Chapman. First off, I'd say the odds are kinda long that the Reds pick up Cordero's option. So, that means we're going to need a closer for 2012. For a while it was thought Masset was that guy. Not so much anymore. Some have talked of Logan taking up that role next year. For a contending team...I'd have to pass on that. So that leaves me with 2 options. 1, we get a closer in the off season via a trade or FA. 2, we groom Aroldis for the closer slot.

Let me go on record as saying I do NOT want Chapman to be a closer or even a reliever next season. He needs to be stretched out for a slot in the rotation. Let him start the season in Louisville and if/when we need a starter, call him up. If we don't...let him learn it at AAA and we suck it up and keep Bronson in the rotation.

So for me, I go with this for 2012.

Cueto
Bailey
Leake
Willis
Arroyo

Closer: FA signing/trade acquisition
Volquez traded
Wood gains more experience in AAA
Chapman gains more experience in AAA as a starter.

kaldaniels
08-01-2011, 11:31 AM
A few more good starts and a good report from scouts and I slide a 2 yr 8 million offer across the table. Worst case he falls off a cliff again but realistic worst case he is a LOOGY.

HokieRed
08-01-2011, 11:34 AM
Who's more likely to succeed in a 2012 Reds rotation: Willis or Volquez?

SirFelixCat
08-01-2011, 12:12 PM
Who's more likely to succeed in a 2012 Reds rotation: Willis or Volquez?

That's a tough question.

Volquez's stuff is better, but I think that Willis's makeup is better and probably the 'safer' bet.


Man.....

Scrap Irony
08-01-2011, 12:15 PM
For next season, I'd go one of three routes. Actually, I'd go all three routes at once.

1. I'd look to teams in need of quantity pitching (duh) and offer a two-, three-, or possibly even four-for-one deal in quality. (A Wood, Volquez, Heisey deal for Scott Baker seems like a winner for both sides. So might an Alonso, Francisco, Stubbs deal for Greinke, though that would take some stones.)
2. I'd also look to the free agent route, as there are at least five TOR starters (Oswalt, CJ Wilson, Wainwright, Maholm, and Beuhrle) available.
3. I'd revisit talks with Tampa about Shields, as they obviously need to trim their budget and finally look to be tired of Upton.

My keepers are Cueto and Chapman. Everyone else is available, though I'd prefer to hang on to Bailey and Leake, if possible. Willis might be a great August waiver line deal for a team that needs a starter late.

I'd also try to sell Arroyo on becoming a closer, a la Eckersley to prolong his career. Otherwise, he'd be my sixth starter/ long man at the major league level.

I'd also stretch Chapman to starter, as he's now hopefully learned how to pitch and gotten his feet wet at the major league level.

That puts my starting rotation as:
Cueto
Baker/ Shields/ other trade acquisition
CJ Wilson/ Roy Oswalt/ Mark Beuhrle/ Adam Wainwright/ Paul Maholm/ Other free agent
Chapman
Bailey/ Leake

Roy Tucker
08-01-2011, 12:28 PM
I will say that whoever the Reds staff member/scout was that said to sign Willis should get a gold start.

I thought his career was over and done with and thought there was no way he'd make it back to the bigs. I was wrong. He's shown some ability and a lot of moxie (I love that word).

The Voice of IH
08-01-2011, 03:29 PM
Volquez is not "young" anymore. He is 28. (I realize that 28 is still young in absolute terms, but not in baseball terms. He's not a prospect anymore.) Actually, he's only a year younger than Willis.


Fair enough, but I don't think I am delusional when I say that there would be a team out there willing to take a chance on him, and willing to trade a couple of prospects for him. Think about what they got for Gomes. Something like that.



I will say that whoever the Reds staff member/scout was that said to sign Willis should get a gold start.

Does the credit belong to Baker for this? I thought I remembered that it was Baker who wanted to take the chance and sign him.

_Sir_Charles_
08-01-2011, 03:37 PM
2. I'd also look to the free agent route, as there are at least five TOR starters (Oswalt, CJ Wilson, Wainwright, Maholm, and Beuhrle) available.

Oswalt is not a TOR starter anymore. Aging quickly. He got rejuvenated on the move to Philly, but it didn't last. Maholm is a middle of the rotation guy IMO. Wainwright is coming off a TJ surgery so I stay away from him for now. Wilson & Beuhrle...I'd bite.

Scrap Irony
08-01-2011, 04:09 PM
Ehh, Oswalt's only 33, not exactly an old-timer. Especially if we're talking about next season. He's been injured this year, so his numbers aren't as dominating as they normally are.

Maholm's numbers, while not phenomenal, might be right at the cusp of outstanding (not to mention his southpaw-ocity). He'd be a pretty major catch and improve the rotation a great deal at the very least. IMO, he's found something at 29, a not uncommon occurrence for lefties. Put him ahead of the Cincinnati defense and he'd be a good bet to continue being as good as he is.

Wainwright, meanwhile, is definitely a TOR arm and TJ surgery is merely a one-year wait period for most of those. He'd not only be a plus in Cincinnati, he'd hurt St. Louis' chances if he signed here. A double bonus.

_Sir_Charles_
08-01-2011, 04:15 PM
Ehh, Oswalt's only 33, not exactly an old-timer. Especially if we're talking about next season. He's been injured this year, so his numbers aren't as dominating as they normally are.


Well, other than that run he had when he first joined Philly...he'd been trending down for about 2 to 3 years. He was pretty ordinary towards the end there with Houston. Don't get me wrong, he's a good pitcher and I wouldn't mind seeing him (or Maholm) in our rotation. I just don't see either as a TOR arm.

RedlegJake
08-01-2011, 05:37 PM
Depth. I don't believe in logjams when it comes to starting pitching. First - I don't believe Arroyo is done. He should have sat out this whole season given his health but that is just not realistic for the Reds or for any team. I truly believe he'll be back with the old Bronson velocity and command next year but even as a reasonably adept innings eater he'll be an expensive fifth of the rotation - given this season, and his contract, no one is going to take him off our hands, so consider a fifth of the rotation set for 2012. His health suffered during the off-season, his conditioning was off, his ST was off, and its darn near impossible to "catch up" playing all season. The bullpen talk about Arroyo is Redszone chatter and interesting as long as you understand it is exactly that and nothing more. Chapman should go into the rotation on at least a spot basis starting next season. Anything else is crazy -no way did the Reds pay $30 mil for a young flamethrowing closer. This guy is either a TOR or not and I believe you have to groom him for that role starting next year now that you've broken him in gently and correctly as I believe the Reds have so far. He won't pitch all the starts in one full turn next year necessarily - that can be shared duty with guys between trips on IR (on a 5 man rotation someone is almost always on the IR), Cueto is the ace right now and deservedly so and nothing more needs be said than hand him the ball every fifth day, Bailey shouldn't be included in any deal that isn't a blockbuster - at least for me 2012 is the year he proves he is legit or falls to the wayside and it's one of the things the Reds must find out by sending him out every 5th day, Leake gets the 5th spot unless Willis or Wood simply outpitches him in ST and forces a change. Volquez is the odd man out here - because if I keep him it would be as a guy in the pen, he, not Arroyo is the guy I see as the guy with the nasty stuff who could be a closer, and his "headcase" personality might even work in his favor. Not every closer has an even temperament. Some have been weird, quirky, explosive, or mean streak types who failed as starters because they'd lose their cool but when they could unleash everything they had without holding back could somehow channel it into success as closers (ala Reardon and Gossage). I see re-signing Willis, and/or keeping Volquez as improbabilities anyway. Willis is pitching himself into a bigger contract and Volquez has worn out the welcome mat with management. Finally, I wouldn't give up on Wood - he's a lefty with pretty good stuff, decent command and only in his second year - and lefty's and notoriously long in the learning tooth. Giving him up now would be just about the time when he'll seriously begin putting everything together. Even if it takes another year as a spot starter and long reliever I'd keep him around as competition for 2013.

Tradewise I'd look at Chapman and Cueto as almost untouchable (nobody is absolutely untouchable), and it'd take a really nice deal to pry away Bailey, Wood or Leake but one or two of them could be had if it meant getting a Shields type pitcher. Depending on how Willis pitches the rest of the way I'd be very tempted to pay him market value - the break being the length of the deal. Then I'd feel free to move Volquez for a couple good prospects - not necessarily great prospects - but good enough to provide stiff competition for the real "targets" in the pipeline to keep the bloodlines rich.

As bad as this staff has been this season it's been a combination of health (Arroyo, Bailey), rust (Willis), lack of experience and adjusting (Leake, Wood) and one flat out bust (Volquez - okay, Arroyo, too but I put that down too lack of arm strength and poor health - as I inferred earlier - the best thing for Bronson, and I meant it seriously, would have been to not to have pitched at all, or at least to have skipped the first half). This pitching staff can straighten itself out next season. Will it? Hey, I can't see the future. All I'm saying is the talent is definitely there.

RedsManRick
08-01-2011, 06:55 PM
For me he's depth. The dirty little secret about Willis is that he's never really been a stud, even when he won 22 games. That year he was very solid but got lucky with his HR rate. He's never really missed a lot of bats and never had great control. There's not great stuff there, either. The big leg kick and engaging personality gave him star quality that simply wasn't commensurate to his talent. The best thing he has going for him is his ground ball tendencies.

For me, he's comparable to Travis Wood, only likely more expensive. He's like Randy Wolf with a much greater downside. If we were hurting for SP depth, I'd give him a few million bucks and a team option. But otherwise, I'd let him go. I'd rather give his innings with somebody cheaper and with upside.

Reds/Flyers Fan
08-01-2011, 07:33 PM
There was too much effort this trade deadline by Walt - reportedly - trying to upgrade the starting staff by adding either Jimenez or Shields. There's no reason to expect that he all of a sudden will give up on that and won't try to acquire a No. 1 or No. 2 this offseason.

RedsManRick
08-01-2011, 09:50 PM
I believe Oswalt has talked about retiring after the season to his back issues.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/02/oswalt-may-retire-hamels-wants-to-stay-in-philly.html


Oswalt told Morosi last February that "this year [2010] and next year will probably be it." Oswalt didn't sound quite as definitive on Monday, but said that retirement is still on his mind.

“I’ll play this year and see how it goes,” Oswalt said. “I’ll see where my body’s at and pretty much go from there.”

camisadelgolf
08-02-2011, 12:57 PM
Fwiw (nothing), this is from John Fay's chat today:

12:22
Comment From camisadelgolf
What will the Reds do with Dontrelle Willis after this year?

12:24
JohnFay: Tough call. He's pitched well. But the Reds aren't likely have an opening, especially if Chapman is converted to starting. I think he could do better financially going the free agent route.

So there you have it. The Reds aren't likely have an opening next year.

PuffyPig
08-02-2011, 01:20 PM
1.So might an Alonso, Francisco, Stubbs deal for Greinke, though that would take some stones.
2. I'd also look to the free agent route, as there are at least five TOR starters (Oswalt, CJ Wilson, Wainwright, Maholm, and Beuhrle) available.


Stones? Thats way more that the Brewers gave up for 2 years of Greinke. And we'd have him for one year.

Wainwright won't be a FA. Maholm and Beuhrle aren't TOR starters, neither is Oswalt.

And why does everyone want to trade Stubbs for 1 year rentals?

Scrap Irony
08-02-2011, 05:02 PM
And why does everyone want to trade Stubbs for 1 year rentals?

Can't speak for everyone, but, IMO, the Reds have three guys who can play CF and provide very good value (re: 3.5 WAR+ over a full season), but only one of those could be a centerpiece in a deal for a true TOR starter, a la Shields, Baker, et al.

And you deal him for a one-year rental because that's all that's available that could help the Reds win next year. (That I know of. I'm perfectly willing to deal Stubbs for a TOR starter that has more than one year left on his contract.)

Reds1
08-02-2011, 05:25 PM
There was too much effort this trade deadline by Walt - reportedly - trying to upgrade the starting staff by adding either Jimenez or Shields. There's no reason to expect that he all of a sudden will give up on that and won't try to acquire a No. 1 or No. 2 this offseason.

I think you are right. Yes, we have a lot of candidates, but my belief is Cueto, Bailey and Leake are the locks for now. I don't know what you do with Arroyo. I know he's signed, but I never did like that contract. I like Chapman to get a shot. I think WJ will continue to look for a trade partner with some of those pieces. I think many of our pitchers have value, but Reds need the do what the Brewers did and add to higher quality Starters and maybe use some of those pitchers for a SS bat or somewhere. 3B has to be a big question mark for the Reds. Cozart might be SS. Would be nice to get an extended look, but we have some spots to upgrade.

corkedbat
08-03-2011, 10:30 PM
I've been thinling about this also. I would say that Willis will want to paid as a starter if his performances continue - not saying that he will try to break the bank, but something along the lines of $4-6M for two or three years.

While he has looked great, the Reds have to be careful. If they sign hi, then they are stck with another Attoyo situation - another untradeable verteran starter with a rotation spot comitted to them (blocking younger guys) if their performance is not what you're looking for.

Willis is probably more adaptable to the pen if things go pear-shaped and giving you another option, but he will probably be making more than you should be paying a reliever>

I think a lot of ot dependson two things. 1) Does Aroldis start or close next year? and 2) How hard are you going for a TUR guys over the off season by trade or in Free Agency?

It might not be a very bad gamble to re-sign D if Chapman is your closer and/or you don't think you can/will upgrade the rotation externally. I believe they have shown every sign by their deadline actions that they will be agressive and active over the offseason.

I think they have to answer all questions now with Dontrelle. He is probably the Reds best candidate for a waiver deal. If the Reds continue to play as inconsistently as they are now, they seriously have to consider dealing D-Train if they're offered something they really like.

Guacarock
08-04-2011, 03:44 AM
Willis is probably more adaptable to the pen if things go pear-shaped and giving you another option, but he will probably be making more than you should be paying a reliever.

A few million is peanuts to be paying a solid No. 3 starter candidate who could slide easily into the bullpen, should the Reds decide to transition fellow southpaw Chapman back into the rotation. Would Willis' salary be excessive for a LH reliever? Not at all. We paid Arthur Rhodes as much last season, and he was more than a decade older than Willis and offered far less long-term potential.

There's also the D-Train's "rake" factor. To whit, after his long ball last night in Houston, he's now boasting a .417 batting average, with a .750 slugging percentage and 1.167 OPS. In other words, he's outslugging Votto, Bruce, Hernandez and every other paid Big Bopper we've got. The sample size for his 2011 plate performance is small, but he does now boast 9 career home runs, 5 triples and 11 doubles. So, even if he isn't plugged into the 2012 rotation or bombs in a relief role, he might be our best or 2nd best LH stick off the bench.

All things considered, that ought to be worth $2-$3 million in 2012. My hunch: Dontrelle will earn his keep, and maybe, just maybe, help to transform this current sadsack team into a squad that places a little higher premium on competing and winning.

Guacarock
08-04-2011, 04:08 AM
And furthermore...

Actually, I've got nothing else at the moment to add to this debate. But after the unsettling loss last night to the Astros, and Willis getting robbed once again of a victory after handing another lead to the bullpen, I figured I'd sleep a little easier having reached the 1,000-post milestone.

Ya-hoo! My innards be tickled.

RedsManRick
08-04-2011, 04:12 AM
And furthermore...

Actually, I've got nothing else at the moment to add to this debate. But after the unsettling loss last night to the Astros, and Willis getting robbed once again of a victory after handing another lead to the bullpen, I figured I'd sleep a little easier having reached the 1,000-post milestone.

Ya-hoo! My innards be tickled.

:beerme:

GAC
08-04-2011, 04:18 AM
A few more good starts and a good report from scouts and I slide a 2 yr 8 million offer across the table. Worst case he falls off a cliff again but realistic worst case he is a LOOGY.

I agree. He still will get several more starts before season's end, but if he continues to pitch like he has - and the guy is a fierce competitor IMO - how can they let him walk and not make a reasonable offer to retain him?

If this organization cannot afford a 2 yr contract in the 6-8M range, then they have bigger problems. They could offset that amount by cleaning out some of the other dregs on this roster.

membengal
08-04-2011, 06:48 AM
Word is they were working with him last night after the game taking ground balls at 3b...

klw
08-04-2011, 12:02 PM
How about?

Cueto
Darvish
Leake
Chapman
Bailey

Hey we can dream.

Will M
08-04-2011, 12:12 PM
I would wait a bit longer & see how he does in his next few starts.
He has looked good and I would have no problem offering a deal for 2012 or 2012-2013. My 'reading of the tea leaves' says Chapman is the 2012 closer. Assuming Walt gets another pitcher in the offseason we would be looking at...

1) Acquisition
2) Cueto
3) Leake
4) Bailey (always an injury risk)
5) Arroyo
6) Willis
7) Wood if he isn't traded
8) Volquez who I think will be traded

Having a seven deep rotation would be a very good thing. Especially with Bailey's injury history & Arroyo general stinkiness. this year we have had 7 guys start at least 4 games as well as Maloney & Reineke starting one each.

Redsfan320
08-04-2011, 12:42 PM
How about?

Cueto
Darvish
Leake
Chapman
Bailey

Hey we can dream.

Had to look up the Darvish guy you mentioned. Wow, can he pitch; in Japan anyway. Odd thing was, he was throwing around 200 IP a year, but only 25 starts. That comes out to a solid 8 IP per start. I would try to take off 2 innings per start, and convert the 50 innings we have left into 8 more 6 inning starts. That way instead of: 25 G, 200 IP, 8 IP/G; we get: 33 G, 200 IP, 6 IP/G. Anyway, does this guy plan on coming to America soon? I saw on BR he isn't pitching in Japan this year, unless their season hasn't started yet.

EDIT: One more thing, for someone who knows, is this: 25 G, 200 IP, 8 IP/G usual in Japan?

320

Larkin Fan
08-04-2011, 12:58 PM
If we don't have room for him in the rotation, maybe we could try him in left field too? He's got some pop. ;)

klw
08-04-2011, 01:01 PM
Had to look up the Darvish guy you mentioned. Wow, can he pitch; in Japan anyway. Odd thing was, he was throwing around 200 IP a year, but only 25 starts. That comes out to a solid 8 IP per start. I would try to take off 2 innings per start, and convert the 50 innings we have left into 8 more 6 inning starts. That way instead of: 25 G, 200 IP, 8 IP/G; we get: 33 G, 200 IP, 6 IP/G. Anyway, does this guy plan on coming to America soon? I saw on BR he isn't pitching in Japan this year, unless their season hasn't started yet.

EDIT: One more thing, for someone who knows, is this: 25 G, 200 IP, 8 IP/G usual in Japan?

320

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/MLB-Texas-Rangers-Japanese-players-Yu-Darvish-080211


Darvish is the biggest name in the Japanese major leagues, a 24-year-old superstar pitcher for the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters. It’s widely believed that the Fighters will allow Darvish to leave Japan and sign with a Major League Baseball club after this season. If and when that happens, Darvish will be an even bigger media sensation in 2012 than Daisuke Matsuzaka was for the Boston Red Sox in 2007.

From a few days back;
http://washington.nationals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110723&content_id=22196220&notebook_id=22207458&vkey=notebook_was&c_id=was


Darvish currently plays for the Nippon Ham Fighters of the Pacific League in Japan and is considered a dominating pitcher. Entering Saturday's action, Darvish is 13-2 with a 1.44 ERA for Nippon. Prior to this year, Darvish had pitched in 100 games for the Nippon, going 58-22 with a 1.81 ERA.


A scouting report from 2008
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2008/265903.html

A 6-foot-5, 190-pound righthander, Darvish is just 21 years old. Two international scouts described him as having a variety of above-average pitches. He works in the low 90s with his fastball and can reach back for 95-96 mph on occasion. He can cut his fastball, and he also throws a slider, curveball, splitter and a changeup. His ability to locate his pitches makes them play up, and he could be a frontline starter in the big leagues.

"He has plus stuff, and plus command and control to go with plus makeup," one scout said. "If I had a big game, I would be comfortable with him on the mound. He's a No. 1 starter for me. Absolutely filthy last year, and he played most of the year at 20. We'll see what happens as the innings pile on his arm, but he would be 1-1 in the draft . . .

I'm guessing his posting fee would top $100 million and would end up with the Yankees.

corkedbat
08-04-2011, 01:10 PM
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/MLB-Texas-Rangers-Japanese-players-Yu-Darvish-080211

I'd be all for going after Darvish, but wouldn't hold my breath when it comes to landing him. He wouldn't cost any trading chips, whch would leave them free to go after Shields, but I don't see us winning any bidding wars with the big boys. Chapman was a fluke and the stakes/price will be higher.

westofyou
08-04-2011, 01:11 PM
.283/.350/.415 in 5 starts, he's had eleven 1-2-3 innings out of the 29 he has pitched with a 17-11 K/BB rate.

Of the hitters he's retired

Retired by:
Strikeout 17
Ground Out 37
Line Out 4
Fly Out 15
Pop Out 3
Other 0

The ground out are nice, but he's also essentially a 2 pitch pitcher who relies on a fastball that isn't once it once was.

I wouldn't offer him 4 million for 2 years much alone per year.

He's providing something for nothing right now, but I'd prefer that the Reds let someone else pay for the inevitable decline, because if this is the best he can give the Reds should be able to replace that .

Tom Servo
08-04-2011, 01:26 PM
.283/.350/.415 in 5 starts, he's had eleven 1-2-3 innings out of the 29 he has pitched with a 17-11 K/BB rate.

Of the hitters he's retired

Retired by:
Strikeout 17
Ground Out 37
Line Out 4
Fly Out 15
Pop Out 3
Other 0

The ground out are nice, but he's also essentially a 2 pitch pitcher who relies on a fastball that isn't once it once was.

I wouldn't offer him 4 million for 2 years much alone per year.

He's providing something for nothing right now, but I'd prefer that the Reds let someone else pay for the inevitable decline, because if this is the best he can give the Reds should be able to replace that .
Completely agree. I'm rooting for D-Train but every start he has is like watching someone play with fire.

LvJ
08-09-2011, 09:24 PM
So, is he legit?

He just had his best outing yet. 8 IP, 10 K, 5 H, 3 ER against a pretty legit offense.

I am so confused!

RedsManRick
08-09-2011, 09:44 PM
So, is he legit?

He just had his best outing yet. 8 IP, 10 K, 5 H, 3 ER against a pretty legit offense.

I am so confused!

Watching him, I don't know how he's getting strikeouts. Seems like a standard soft-tossing lefty.

lollipopcurve
08-09-2011, 09:49 PM
Watching him, I don't know how he's getting strikeouts. Seems like a standard soft-tossing lefty.

He's deceptive. Has always been his strength. If he finishes strong, they need to keep him.

HokieRed
08-09-2011, 09:51 PM
Watching him, I don't know how he's getting strikeouts. Seems like a standard soft-tossing lefty.

You mean like Jamie Moyer?

jojo
08-09-2011, 10:16 PM
Dontrelle is a much different guy against lefties than he is against righties. I think he's best cast in the pen or as a back end starter depth.

Moyer actually didn't have dramatic platoon splits.

traderumor
08-09-2011, 10:19 PM
Watching him, I don't know how he's getting strikeouts. Seems like a standard soft-tossing lefty.He had a fastball tonight. First time he was dialing up 90-91 consistently, so he got some K's. And he did something rare for this staff--kept the ball down and off the middle of the plate. Quite a novel concept. I must ask what new manner of pitching this is.

I(heart)Freel
08-10-2011, 08:56 AM
If he rewards the Reds for taking a chance on him with a very favorable contract for 2012+, then I think the club should do it. Gives Walt that much more depth to use in trade talks this winter. If Chapman converts to the rotation, there's even more depth.

Cueto
Arroyo
Leake
Willis
Bailey
Wood
Chapman
Lecure
Volquez
+any FA fliers (like Willis) who sign minor league deals on the cheap

Hoosier Red
08-10-2011, 09:30 AM
Fun fact I looked up last night. In Willis' 6 starts, he's 2nd on the team in RBI's with 3.
Only Phillips has more with 4.
Stubbs has 2 and a host of others have 1.

Griffey012
08-10-2011, 08:55 PM
I don't see why people seem to think Willis can't handle things with 2 pitches. He has an above average fastball in the sense that is has decent velocity, it jumps out of his arm, and he locates it well in, out, and down low. His slider is a very good pitched when he is locating it, especially against lefties, but he also works it down and in well against righties.

Most pitchers need an array of pitches because they can't effectively throw their pitches inside and out.

IIRC he has always been a 2 pitch pitcher, and while he may no put up a Cy Young type 22 win season, there is no reason from what I see so far that he cannot have an era between 3.80-4.20.

RedsManRick
08-10-2011, 11:01 PM
He had a fastball tonight. First time he was dialing up 90-91 consistently, so he got some K's. And he did something rare for this staff--kept the ball down and off the middle of the plate. Quite a novel concept. I must ask what new manner of pitching this is.

This is true. None of those Wood/Bailey/Arroyo specials thigh-high down broadway.

dabvu2498
08-10-2011, 11:04 PM
This is true. None of those Wood/Bailey/Arroyo specials thigh-high down broadway.

Brantley has rubbed off on you. Say it ain't so!!!

OnBaseMachine
08-11-2011, 11:18 AM
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/dontrelle-willis-the-dontrelle-willis/

Benihana
08-11-2011, 11:40 AM
Is he a FA after the season? I'd place Arroyo on waivers to see if there's any chance someone bites (very unlikely I know). Then I'd re-sign Willis, but not for more than 2 years at most.

corkedbat
08-11-2011, 04:06 PM
I love Willis and I think his attitude is great to have around. Bringing him back next year could be risky though if he's not pitching as he is now (especially if it's for more than one year).

As of now, you have to pretty much assume that three of the five spots are locked in with Cueto, Arroyo (contract) and Leake. Iwould also like to see the club revisit a deal for Shields with the Rays (possibly built around Grandal, a young starter and other pieces). If successful that would leave Willis, Chapman and anyone left from among Bailey, Wood and Volquez to battle for the fifth spot. I just don't think you can go with Willis with that kind of cheap youth around.

remdog
08-11-2011, 04:13 PM
Can Willis play left field?

Pitch him every 5th day, play him in LF against right handers the other days.:lol:

Rem

Guacarock
08-11-2011, 04:24 PM
I love Willis and I think his attitude is great to have around. Bringing him back next year could be risky though if he's not pitching as he is now (especially if it's for more than one year).

As of now, you have to pretty much assume that three of the five spots are locked in with Cueto, Arroyo (contract) and Leake. Iwould also like to see the club revisit a deal for Shields with the Rays (possibly built around Grandal, a young starter and other pieces). If successful that would leave Willis, Chapman and anyone left from among Bailey, Wood and Volquez to battle for the fifth spot. I just don't think you can go with Willis with that kind of cheap youth around.

I agree with the first part of your analysis. Three of the five rotation spots are likely to be filled by Cueto, Leake and Arroyo. I also agree that we should go out and trade for a TOR horse like Shields. But I don't see the same logjam happening at the back of the rotation.

For starters, one or two of Bailey, Wood and Volquez could be dealt in our trade for a more reliable starter. And Chapman is just as apt to be assigned as our closer than returned to the rotation. Under these scenarios, we most certainly should consider bringing back Willis another year.

Even if we go into 2012 with six starters, that's not a case of overstocking. We already know from this season how quickly attrition, injury and poor performance can transform a surplus into a deficit.

OnBaseMachine
08-12-2011, 10:39 PM
From Jayson Stark:


Speaking of the Reds, scouts who have seen Dontrelle Willis are sold, after six starts in which Willis has averaged more than six innings per start and pitched to a 3.41 ERA and even ripped off a 10-strikeout game against Colorado on Tuesday.

"That's as good as I've seen him in three or four years," one NL scout said. "He threw strikes. His delivery was a little firmer. He had a good downward angle on everything, as opposed to being quick and open and under everything. He made a lot of good pitches."



http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/rumblings110812/mlb-postseason-problems-revisited

buckeyenut
08-13-2011, 03:35 PM
Can Willis play left field?

Pitch him every 5th day, play him in LF against right handers the other days.:lol:

Rem

If he continues to hammer the ball the way he has been, why not once in a while?

kaldaniels
08-13-2011, 05:03 PM
If a team actively used him as a LH pinch hitter off the bench in addition to his pitching...could that help you optimize a roster that much more? He has a .717 OPS lifetime vs RHP, which beats say, Miguel Cairo (who bats right, career .660 OPS vs RHP).

oneupper
08-13-2011, 05:07 PM
Willis signed a minor league deal. Isn't he under control?
Can we offer arbitration or is he a FA, no matter what?

kaldaniels
08-13-2011, 05:12 PM
Willis signed a minor league deal. Isn't he under control?
Can we offer arbitration or is he a FA, no matter what?

He's got his service time in. Signed a one year minor league deal. He's free to go after this year. I suppose the Reds could offer him arb, but I don't see the point...probably couldn't get any draft picks for his small amount of playing time this year.

camisadelgolf
08-13-2011, 06:31 PM
Willis is nowhere close to becoming a type B free agent. The Reds could offer him arbitration, but all it would do is make it public that the Reds are interested in retaining him.

mdccclxix
09-13-2011, 12:48 PM
Last night was a tough night, but Willis may have always been more suited as a LHRP, ala Bill Bray. If Chapman moves to the rotation ((please)), Willis could fill the bill in the bullpen vs LHB's.

Cordero (for now it seems most likely)
LeCure
Bray
Ondrusek
Willis

Willis vs LHB's this year:

.137 BAA, .398 OPS, 56 PA's, 17K, 2BB

cumberlandreds
09-13-2011, 01:01 PM
Where does WIllis fit in for 2012? Hopefully not on the team. I've not been that impressed at all by him. He constantly falls behind in the count and just doesn't seem to have much zip on his fastball. I think everyone is wising up to that and starting take to make him throw the fastball. At first I thought he might be a decent number five starter but after the last couple of starts I don't even think that. Willis is a good guy and teammate and I admire him for going back to the minors to make a comeback. But I really think his day is done and the Reds can move on from him.

mdccclxix
09-13-2011, 01:14 PM
Where does WIllis fit in for 2012? Hopefully not on the team. I've not been that impressed at all by him. He constantly falls behind in the count and just doesn't seem to have much zip on his fastball. I think everyone is wising up to that and starting take to make him throw the fastball. At first I thought he might be a decent number five starter but after the last couple of starts I don't even think that. Willis is a good guy and teammate and I admire him for going back to the minors to make a comeback. But I really think his day is done and the Reds can move on from him.

Why not as a LHRP? He's essentially made a career of getting LHB's out:

.201/ .276/ .289/.565

mth123
09-13-2011, 06:20 PM
Why not as a LHRP? He's essentially made a career of getting LHB's out:

.201/ .276/ .289/.565

The team has bigger needs. Only for the minimum.

HokieRed
09-13-2011, 06:22 PM
The team has bigger needs. Only for the minimum.

Ditto. If this is the kind of question we're worrying about, we're not going to be better.

buckeyenut
09-13-2011, 06:29 PM
how about in LF? great bat

mth123
09-13-2011, 07:24 PM
how about in LF? great bat

Maybe when Arroyo pitches Willis and he could alternate between pitcher and LF. Arroyo pitches to the righties and Willis to the lefties. It would be a better use of LF than some of what we've seen out there.

cumberlandreds
09-14-2011, 08:40 AM
Why not as a LHRP? He's essentially made a career of getting LHB's out:

.201/ .276/ .289/.565

I'd rather not with his control issues. Somewhere along the way that will bite him, hard. His cost would be too much also for this type of slot.

mdccclxix
09-14-2011, 10:44 AM
The team has bigger needs. Only for the minimum.

He is a bit redundant with Bray, but there is a case he'd be better than Bray against lefties. He could also give you 2-3 innings in blowouts. Personally, I wish Bray could get more work against RHB's, but maybe there's more to it I don't know.

Coco
Lecure (replaces Masset's role)
Bray
Masset
Willis
Ondrusek

I think he fits in well in the absence of Chapman. The only issue with this pen, especially without Chapman, is it lacks a real strikeout guy. Masset is okay there.

mdccclxix
09-14-2011, 10:50 AM
Ditto. If this is the kind of question we're worrying about, we're not going to be better.

It's really not a worry as much as a discussion aside from the standard LF, SS, 3B variety. There were some legitimate holes in this bullpen this year to where, had they been better, it may have changed the course of the season.

mdccclxix
09-14-2011, 10:52 AM
I'd rather not with his control issues. Somewhere along the way that will bite him, hard. His cost would be too much also for this type of slot.

He's only walked 8% of LHB's, while striking out 29% during his entire career - and has a 3.55 K/BB ratio. He's got the control you need vs. LHB's. It's pretty much what he does well.

mth123
09-14-2011, 11:54 AM
He is a bit redundant with Bray, but there is a case he'd be better than Bray against lefties. He could also give you 2-3 innings in blowouts. Personally, I wish Bray could get more work against RHB's, but maybe there's more to it I don't know.

Coco
Lecure (replaces Masset's role)
Bray
Masset
Willis
Ondrusek

I think he fits in well in the absence of Chapman. The only issue with this pen, especially without Chapman, is it lacks a real strikeout guy. Masset is okay there.

The bullpen issues are rooted in the lousy rotation IMO. The main relievers on this team were worn out by the end of May. Moving an unproven with no innings base like Chapman to the rotation doesn't really fix anything and paying anything more than the minumum for the 12th man on the staff doesn't help either. The team needs to aim higher. That rotation spot that is ticketed for Chapman should be filled with a proven arm from outside the organization. That $2 or $3 Million that somebody will pay Willis is better paid by somebody else. If he'll come back for the minimum, sure add him to the mix, otherwise, pass. Leake, Cueto, Arroyo and an acquisition will fill 4 spots. Chapman should have to compete with Bailey, Wood, Volquez, etc for the 5th spot. I like Bailey better as a starter for 2012 and Chapman is pretty good in the pen.

I'm dreading the possibility that the team's method of addressing its rotation issues is to simply move Chapman in. This team needs to take much stronger measures IMO.

mdccclxix
09-14-2011, 12:07 PM
The bullpen issues are rooted in the lousy rotation IMO. The main relievers on this team were worn out by the end of May. Moving an unproven with no innings base like Chapman to the rotation doesn't really fix anything and paying anything more than the minumum for the 12th man on the staff doesn't help either. The team needs to aim higher. That rotation spot that is ticketed for Chapman should be filled with a proven arm from outside the organization. That $2 or $3 Million that somebody will pay Willis is better paid by somebody else. If he'll come back for the minimum, sure add him to the mix, otherwise, pass. Leake, Cueto, Arroyo and an acquisition will fill 4 spots. Chapman should have to compete with Bailey, Wood, Volquez, etc for the 5th spot. I like Bailey better as a starter for 2012 and Chapman is pretty good in the pen.

I'm dreading the possibility that the team's method of addressing its rotation issues is to simply move Chapman in. This team needs to take much stronger measures IMO.

I see where Willis to the pen is signaling a chain of events you'd rather not see happen. If the Reds are set for Chapman in the rotation (they don't really seem sure...yet...SURPRISE!), it would help with the decision to make your group of Bailey, Wood and Volquez available to aquire a SP. I'm with you that they need a strong upgrade in the rotation. I'm also an optimist with Chapman, although his innings limit is a big hurdle next year. Perhaps they start him out in the pen again, getting Masset's innings (you can tell I don't like Masset :)) then work him into the rotation hopefully by the middle of the year to see if he can impact the race. The pace the Reds go with young players is telling me Chapman is in the pen next year. There are also a lot of smart baseball people that think he SHOULD STAY there. We'll see.

For now, where does Willis fit in the picture? For my money (up to 1 million), as a reliever next year. I consider him an upgrade over Horst, Smith, Fisher, Maloney, and maybe Arredondo. I'd prefer Chapman in the rotation, but his innings limit will have to be watched. It feels time to take the Ferrari out of the neighborhood and on to the highway!

kaldaniels
09-14-2011, 01:47 PM
I can't imagine Willis is gonna get decent money from anyone this offseason. So, if the Reds can bring him back for 1 million as a LOOGY guy and an extra LH pinch hitter (very serious about that), I'd do it.

cumberlandreds
09-15-2011, 01:08 PM
He's only walked 8% of LHB's, while striking out 29% during his entire career - and has a 3.55 K/BB ratio. He's got the control you need vs. LHB's. It's pretty much what he does well.

If the Reds can bring him back cheap then he's worth a look in that role as a lefty specialist. But I have a feeling someone, who is desparate for starting pitching, will give him more $$$ as a starter.

Kc61
09-15-2011, 01:18 PM
I don't see a role for Dontrelle on the Reds next year. I do think the team needs to re-stock the bullpen with a couple of additions. But I think it's more likely they will acquire actual relievers, rather than converting Willis to the pen. He is a free agent, he'll sign on someplace.

As for the rotation, hopefully some decisions will be made. Cueto, Leake, and Arroyo are locks for next year based on the circumstances, contracts, etc.

My own guess is that Chapman will begin the season in longer relief stints and will eventually be a starter in 2012 when somebody needs to step out of the rotation.

That leaves two spots in the rotation for Bailey, Wood, Volquez, and any new guys.

I hope there are new guys.

mdccclxix
09-15-2011, 01:24 PM
With league wide ERA coming down so far, I'm not sure many teams will buy into Dontrelle's game as a starter. For Dontrelle's sake, I hope he finds a job and succeeds as a starter, but he'd be wise to listen to offers to be a LHRP.

Reds1
09-15-2011, 02:22 PM
I personally hope the reds pick up a stud and just let Willis go. I like him and would consider him in LF for his bat. :), he's a great ra-ra guy, but he hasn't won and we have many other options that are younger and cheaper. That being said if he signs for 1 million there's no reason to do that, but he's pitched well enough someone will take a shot on him. Why would a team like Pitt not do it. He seems to love being a Red though. Dusty likes those Vets so he could still be here, but I don't see him cracking the starting 5. Insurance maybe, but hope we don't need him.