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I(heart)Freel
08-01-2011, 03:48 PM
Can you imagine?

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2011/08/01/were-the-reds-working-on-something-big/

I(heart)Freel
08-01-2011, 03:49 PM
As I said in the comments...

If this were true... there's no reason to think it doesn't happen (or be explored again) in the off season when the shock of changing cities and marquee players would be significantly muted.

Could also explain the Alonso call-up, when the club has made it clear it doesn't intend to start him - ever - in left field.

Wow, is all I can say.

Caveat Emperor
08-01-2011, 03:50 PM
As I said in the other thread -- I'd have kicked in Corcino and done the deal without a second thought.

Your 2012 Reds could've been:

Phillips
Cozart
Bautista
Mesoraco
Bruce
Rolen
Alonso
Stubbs

That's disgusting.

dougdirt
08-01-2011, 03:51 PM
As I said in the other thread -- I'd have kicked in Corcino and done the deal without a second thought.

Your 2012 Reds could've been:

Phillips
Cozart
Bautista
Mesoraco
Bruce
Rolen
Alonso
Stubbs

That's disgusting.
This a million times over.

marcshoe
08-01-2011, 03:56 PM
As I said in the comments...


Could also explain the Alonso call-up, when the club has made it clear it doesn't intend to start him - ever - in left field.



Except for tonight. (http://ramsey.mlblogs.com/2011/08/01/tonights-lineup-whos-your-reds-pick-to-click-45/)

wolfboy
08-01-2011, 03:56 PM
If this were true... there's no reason to think it doesn't happen (or be explored again) in the off season when the shock of changing cities and marquee players would be significantly muted.

I think the higher ups recognize the need for some changes on this team but they just didn't/couldn't/wouldn't pull the trigger at the trade deadline. That being said, it should be an interesting off season.

fearofpopvol1
08-01-2011, 03:58 PM
As I said in the other thread -- I'd have kicked in Corcino and done the deal without a second thought.

Your 2012 Reds could've been:

Phillips
Cozart
Bautista
Mesoraco
Bruce
Rolen
Alonso
Stubbs

That's disgusting.

Amen. Bautista in GAB would have been sick.

I(heart)Freel
08-01-2011, 04:00 PM
Except for tonight. (http://ramsey.mlblogs.com/2011/08/01/tonights-lineup-whos-your-reds-pick-to-click-45/)

Finally. Thanks. Hadn't seen the lineup.

Still... one start in six games doesn't sound like a starter. Doesn't even sound like a platoon. Barely sounds like a spot-starter. Hopefully he rakes in nee-Enron Field and forces Dusty to pencil him in more often.

_Sir_Charles_
08-01-2011, 04:01 PM
Minute Maid. Enron bit the dust.

Caveat Emperor
08-01-2011, 04:01 PM
Amen. Bautista in GAB would have been sick.

Could still be sick.

This kind of deal strikes me as something that can be hammered out in the offseason if both teams feel there is a match to be made. Both players are under control, both extremely productive for their respective teams. No need to rush to do something like this.

reds44
08-01-2011, 04:02 PM
I'll take Votto, thanks.

AtomicDumpling
08-01-2011, 04:03 PM
As I said in the other thread -- I'd have kicked in Corcino and done the deal without a second thought.

Your 2012 Reds could've been:

Phillips
Cozart
Bautista
Mesoraco
Bruce
Rolen
Alonso
Stubbs

That's disgusting.

I would do that deal too. It gives the Reds control of the superstar at a reasonable salary for a longer period of time.

I would change the batting order to this:

Phillips
Bruce
Bautista
Alonso
Stubbs
Mesoraco
Cozart
Francisco/Frazier platoon
Pitcher

I think Alonso is more likely to become a middle of the order hitter than is Mesoraco.

Eric_the_Red
08-01-2011, 04:04 PM
I'll take Votto, thanks.

Why? Not saying you are wrong, but I'd like to hear the thinking. Bautista will be cheaper to control for a longer time, and we have an in house replacement for first base.

I love me some Joey Votto, but I love World Series appearances more.

reds44
08-01-2011, 04:04 PM
Could still be sick.

This kind of deal strikes me as something that can be hammered out in the offseason if both teams feel there is a match to be made. Both players are under control, both extremely productive for their respective teams. No need to rush to do something like this.
This is true. There's no reason to believe that if there was true talks that it couldn't happen in the offseason.

I just don't have enough faith in Bautista to do that deal. No way.

Maybe the fact the Reds held onto Alonso tells you something, though.

Caveat Emperor
08-01-2011, 04:04 PM
I'll take Votto, thanks.

Over a guy with a better OPS, more HRs, playing a position that's actually a team need and signed to a longer deal?

You crazy, man.

I(heart)Freel
08-01-2011, 04:05 PM
Minute Maid. Enron bit the dust.

Called it "nee-Enron." Some girls you always call by their maiden name.

fearofpopvol1
08-01-2011, 04:06 PM
Could still be sick.

This kind of deal strikes me as something that can be hammered out in the offseason if both teams feel there is a match to be made. Both players are under control, both extremely productive for their respective teams. No need to rush to do something like this.

You might be right.

Votto may give Toronto a hometown discount on an extension there too, which might be part of Toronto's thinking.

redsfandan
08-01-2011, 04:07 PM
I would do that deal too. It gives the Reds control of the superstar at a reasonable salary for a longer period of time.

I would change the batting order to this:

Phillips
Bruce
Bautista
Alonso
Stubbs
Mesoraco
Cozart
Francisco/Frazier platoon
Pitcher

I think Alonso is more likely to become a middle of the order hitter than is Mesoraco.

Rolen isn't going anywhere. But, Bautista could back him up at 3rd if they didn't want to use Frazier (or if they wanted to trade Frazier).

reds44
08-01-2011, 04:08 PM
Over a guy with a better OPS, more HRs, playing a position that's actually a team need and signed to a longer deal?

You crazy, man.
Bautista is on the wrong side of 30 and there is entirely too much smoke with the steroid conversation for me.

There's too much risk that come along with Bautista.

It's an interesting thought for sure though.

Brutus
08-01-2011, 04:08 PM
Over a guy with a better OPS, more HRs, playing a position that's actually a team need and signed to a longer deal?

You crazy, man.

It's not that crazy. He's going on 31, and while it's not that old, some people aren't convinced, especially on the age where players tend to start declining, that he'll be able to sustain this success.

Votto, meanwhile, is 4 years younger, also under control for a few more seasons and is more likely to sustain his success for the next several seasons.

I wouldn't do the deal either. Bautista is awesome, but I'm not convinced this will last. Historically 32 years old is when players begin their decline and I'd be even more concerned by that from a guy that has only been a productive major leaguer for a couple seasons to begin with.

TRF
08-01-2011, 04:08 PM
my goodness yes. I loves me some Votto, but one of Alonso, Frazier, Soto or even Juan Francisco at 1B with Bautista at 3B, Cozart and Phillips up the middle? Bruce/Stubbs and one of Heisey/Frazier/Sappelt etc. in LF?

yes please.

reds44
08-01-2011, 04:08 PM
It's not that crazy. He's going on 31, and while it's not that old, some people aren't convinced, especially on the age where players tend to start declining, that he'll be able to sustain this success.

Votto, meanwhile, is 4 years younger, also under control for a few more seasons and is more likely to sustain his success for the next several seasons.

I wouldn't do the deal either. Bautista is awesome, but I'm not convinced this will last. Historically 32 years old is when players begin their decline and I'd be even more concerned by that from a guy that has only been a productive major leaguer for a couple seasons to begin with.
This. This exactly.

For the record though, Bautista isn't four years older. Assuming all ages are correct, he's 2 years, 11 months older.

_Sir_Charles_
08-01-2011, 04:08 PM
3 years older, production that kind of came out of nowhere...it's something to at least hesitate about. But yeah, I'd do that deal...mainly because it fits so well. It opens up a slot for Yonder AND it fills the LF void. But if Yonder busts...

HokieRed
08-01-2011, 04:12 PM
Rather see Joey stay, go to LF himself, open spot for Yonder, then sign a longer term deal. But apart from that scenario, this makes a lot of sense, especially given Bautista's contract through 2015.

Caveat Emperor
08-01-2011, 04:13 PM
Rather see Joey stay, go to LF himself, open spot for Yonder, then sign a longer term deal. But apart from that scenario, this makes a lot of sense, especially given Bautista's contract through 2015.

If the Reds are investigating this kind of trade, I'd wager a significant sum of money they're convinced they've got little to no shot of retaining Votto at the end of his deal.

reds44
08-01-2011, 04:15 PM
People are making too big of a deal out of the contract situation. Bautista is signed for two years longer, but during those two season he will be 34 and 35 years old. It's just not worth it to me.

You have more of a sure thing in Joey.

Reds Fanatic
08-01-2011, 04:15 PM
As much as I love Votto I would do that deal immediately if given the chance. The numbers Bautista would put up in Great American would be huge. It would fill the hole in left and open the natural spot up for Alonso.

It is one of the few big trades that would have worked well for both sides of the trade.

reds44
08-01-2011, 04:16 PM
If the Reds are investigating this kind of trade, I'd wager a significant sum of money they're convinced they've got little to no shot of retaining Votto at the end of his deal.
This I would agree with too, and if they really were talking about it I would expect Votto to go in the offseason and Alonso to be handed the keys to first base. Especially if Yonder shows he can hit up here the next two months.

Who knows if it's true though.

HokieRed
08-01-2011, 04:17 PM
If the Reds are investigating this kind of trade, I'd wager a significant sum of money they're convinced they've got little to no shot of retaining Votto at the end of his deal.

Agree. I concluded this more than a year ago just after the Ryan Franklin contract. I said it would take at least 20 million a year for 5 or 6 to sign Votto and that his age was such he'd be silly to do a deal before his free agency eligibility. Others, at that time, told me these estimates were much too high. With you, I assume there is next to no chance Votto signs long term with the Reds.

reds44
08-01-2011, 04:18 PM
I think the Reds would pay Votto whatever it took to keep him.

That's just me, though.

Tom Servo
08-01-2011, 04:19 PM
If Votto really doesn't give any indication he wants to stay with the Reds past his current deal, I'd make this trade. I'm a huge fan of Bautista.

Caveat Emperor
08-01-2011, 04:21 PM
People are making too big of a deal out of the contract situation. Bautista is signed for two years longer, but during those two season he will be 34 and 35 years old. It's just not worth it to me.

You have more of a sure thing in Joey.

You're forgetting -- it's not just about Jose v. Joey, it's about Joey + Reds LF solution v. Jose + Alonso.

The deal frees the best Reds hitting prospect to play every day at his natural position and puts Bautista into a LF spot that's been begging for a huge bat since Adam Dunn skipped town.

I(heart)Freel
08-01-2011, 04:22 PM
Could come down to a Walt-Joey come-to-Jesus meeting.

"We love you, Joey, but we're thinking about trading you for a left fielder. We can't afford to get what we need in free agency and we have Yonder waiting to play first. Would you rather us trade you during this contract, or would you consider moving to left? It's up to you. Did I mention we love you?"

reds44
08-01-2011, 04:23 PM
Votto is never going to move to left, nor should he. The conversation would be more do you have any intentions of re-signing here than anything.

reds44
08-01-2011, 04:24 PM
You're forgetting -- it's not just about Jose v. Joey, it's about Joey + Reds LF solution v. Jose + Alonso.

The deal frees the best Reds hitting prospect to play every day at his natural position and puts Bautista into a LF spot that's been begging for a huge bat since Adam Dunn skipped town.
I'm not forgetting anything, I was well aware of that when I made my original point.

Caveat Emperor
08-01-2011, 04:24 PM
Could come down to a Walt-Joey come-to-Jesus meeting.

"We love you, Joey, but we're thinking about trading you for a left fielder. We can't afford to get what we need in free agency and we have Yonder waiting to play first. Would you rather us trade you during this contract, or would you consider moving to left? It's up to you. Did I mention we love you?"

Votto would never move to left unless the Reds were willing to pony up serious, long-term cash to cover the fact that he might fall flat on his face out there defensively AND screw up his mojo at the plate doing so.

reds44
08-01-2011, 04:26 PM
Votto would never move to left unless the Reds were willing to pony up serious, long-term cash to cover the fact that he might fall flat on his face out there defensively AND screw up his mojo at the plate doing so.
He still wouldn't. He could get that same money somewhere else to play first or DH.

oneupper
08-01-2011, 04:28 PM
I'll keep Votto. Bautista reminds me of Charlie in "Flowers for Algernon".

corkedbat
08-01-2011, 04:29 PM
As I said in the other thread -- I'd have kicked in Corcino and done the deal without a second thought.

Your 2012 Reds could've been:

Phillips
Cozart
Bautista
Mesoraco
Bruce
Rolen
Alonso
Stubbs

That's disgusting.

Didn't realize Bautista was signed tht long. I love Joey and would hate to give up Corcino, but the would be too good to pass up. I say that simply because simply because I think JV intends on test the free agent market if he stays in Cincy. I believe that Toronto could probably work and extensionwith him and in the end the deal would work put well for all parties. I would make sure that Hautista has not been "sippin' on the juice" before finalizing.

I kind of wonder i your lineup is actually the way the lineup actually looks. I'm getting the feeling that Stubbs could be included in a deal for a TOR (which I also believe will happen) and it wouldn't surprise me to see Scott Rolen may just consider retirement if he doesn't come back strong when his DL stint ends (how about Scotty as the hitting coach for a new manager?). :D

Wouldn't surprise me to see a line up of:

CF Heisey/Sappelt (or) LH/SH CFer acquisition
2B Phillips
RF Bruce
LF Bautista/Hermida (or) Lewis (or) Other LH/SH acquisition
1B Alonso
CA Mesaraco/Hannigan
3B Frazier/Francisco
SS Cozart/Janish (or) LH/SH Middle Infielder acquisition


I could see them trying to add a LH'd CF too. Not necessary (and minor deals or as part of a bigger deal), but adding a MI that is either a lefty or switch-hitter (and could possible step in for Phillips in 2013) would given the lineup and bench very nice balance.

bucksfan2
08-01-2011, 04:29 PM
I think the Reds would pay Votto whatever it took to keep him.

That's just me, though.

I tend to agree with this.

I would be tempted to do the deal but I probably wouldn't pull the trigger. Going forward I peg Votto to have better offensive numbers. I also still am leery about Bautista and his overnight power acquisition. Its pretty much unheard of and while I am not saying he did anything illegal, just raising the question.

It also assumes that Alonso can come right in and fill the 1b void. Alonso ain't Votto. I don't know what kind of player in the future he will become but I doubt he comes close to Votto's overall production.

Caveat Emperor
08-01-2011, 04:31 PM
I think the Reds would pay Votto whatever it took to keep him.

That's just me, though.

The Reds won't go $20+ million per for a player -- nor should they, if they're going to cap-off payroll under $100 million.

MikeS21
08-01-2011, 04:32 PM
Seems to me the Reds should NOT kick in another prospect. I would trade Votto straight up for Bautista.

I think Votto has already made up his mind to leave ... and it ain't about the money.

dougdirt
08-01-2011, 04:33 PM
I tend to agree with this.

I would be tempted to do the deal but I probably wouldn't pull the trigger. Going forward I peg Votto to have better offensive numbers. I also still am leery about Bautista and his overnight power acquisition. Its pretty much unheard of and while I am not saying he did anything illegal, just raising the question.

It also assumes that Alonso can come right in and fill the 1b void. Alonso ain't Votto. I don't know what kind of player in the future he will become but I doubt he comes close to Votto's overall production.

Who cares if Alonso can't replace Votto's production. Bautista can and he will even add more than what Votto brings.

Reds1
08-01-2011, 04:34 PM
I'll take Votto, thanks.

Yes, I'll keep votto and the top prospect

corkedbat
08-01-2011, 04:37 PM
I tend to agree with this.

I would be tempted to do the deal but I probably wouldn't pull the trigger. Going forward I peg Votto to have better offensive numbers. I also still am leery about Bautista and his overnight power acquisition. Its pretty much unheard of and while I am not saying he did anything illegal, just raising the question.

It also assumes that Alonso can come right in and fill the 1B void. Alonso ain't Votto. I don't know what kind of player in the future he will become but I doubt he comes close to Votto's overall production.

I depends. I believe that a lot depends on how Votto continues to progress. If he continues to perform like a MVP, I'm convinced that he will test the market now matter what, because I don't think the Reds can pay the $20M+ he'll look for. If that's the case, then I'd rather have Bautista AND Alonso through 2015.

If his performance were to fall off a bit, Votto might become affordable to the Reds, but again I'd rather have Bautista AND Alonso through 2015. Even a falloff might not make a difference though, I get the impression that JV will test the market no matter what.

hebroncougar
08-01-2011, 04:39 PM
I'd have done that deal in a heartbeat. Votto gets to go where he presumably wants to go, Bautista comes here, and his numbers would be even better, against NL Central pitching, and in GABP........lord have mercy.

corkedbat
08-01-2011, 04:42 PM
Seems to me the Reds should NOT kick in another prospect. I would trade Votto straight up for Bautista.

I think Votto has already made up his mind to leave ... and it ain't about the money.

I would assume that the Jays would say they deserve another prospect because of Bautista's power and more favorable contract. I'd be willing to add a second player, but I'd try to move them off of Corcino (and I'd still do the deal if I couldn't).

TRF
08-01-2011, 04:46 PM
I would assume that the Jays would say they deserve another prospect because of Bautista's power and more favorable contract. I'd be willing to add a second playert, but I'd try to move them off of Corcino (and I'd still do the deal if I couldn't).

I'd say the 2010 NL MVP, going home, and the possibility for a window to extend him, even if INFORMAL feelers were sent out means a 1-1 player swap shouldn't be out of the question.

Now, why is it that I am the only one that sees him at 3B?

corkedbat
08-01-2011, 04:48 PM
You're forgetting -- it's not just about Jose v. Joey, it's about Joey + Reds LF solution v. Jose + Alonso.

The deal frees the best Reds hitting prospect to play every day at his natural position and puts Bautista into a LF spot that's been begging for a huge bat since Adam Dunn skipped town.

It also solves the LF problem with a REAL OFer, improving your OF D (although there would be a bit of a drop off at 1B.

reds44
08-01-2011, 04:48 PM
The Reds won't go $20+ million per for a player -- nor should they, if they're going to cap-off payroll under $100 million.
Make no mistake about it, the Reds got to the playoffs last season because of Joey Votto. The Cardinals are in the race every year because of Pujols.

Don't let a big contract scare you off because of Griffey. Votto would be worth every penny the Reds pay him. Every penny and every percentage of the payroll he gets.

dougdirt
08-01-2011, 04:53 PM
I would assume that the Jays would say they deserve another prospect because of Bautista's power and more favorable contract. I'd be willing to add a second player, but I'd try to move them off of Corcino (and I'd still do the deal if I couldn't).

Let me make this clera on how good Jose Bautista is this season.

The difference in OPS+ between Bautista and Votto is almost the difference between Joey Votto and league average.

That, and a longer deal, is why you have to throw in a prospect with Votto to get him. And that is also why you absolutely pull the trigger on this deal if it were truly available.

corkedbat
08-01-2011, 04:58 PM
Let me make this clera on how good Jose Bautista is this season.

The difference in OPS+ between Bautista and Votto is almost the difference between Joey Votto and league average.

That, and a longer deal, is why you have to throw in a prospect with Votto to get him. And that is also why you absolutely pull the trigger on this deal if it were truly available.

Another attractive offshoot of the deal is that you'd fill the Lf hole and you still have a lot left over to add a TOR (or 2).

Brutus
08-01-2011, 04:58 PM
Let me make this clera on how good Jose Bautista is this season.

The difference in OPS+ between Bautista and Votto is almost the difference between Joey Votto and league average.

That, and a longer deal, is why you have to throw in a prospect with Votto to get him. And that is also why you absolutely pull the trigger on this deal if it were truly available.

That's short-sighted though, Doug.

The deal wouldn't be made because of how much better Bautista is now, the question is how likely is it that Bautista will continue to be better.

I really think one can make a tremendous case that is a risky proposition to assume Bautista will continue producing at this pace. Right now, Bautista is awesome. Tremendous production. But I still think he's fools gold long-term.

Reds/Flyers Fan
08-01-2011, 04:58 PM
If Joey doesn't give the Reds any indication this offseason that he would be willing to resign here long-term, and if Toronto is still interested this offseason, I'd make the trade.

The winter meetings have all of a sudden become a lot more interesting ... and it's Aug. 1.

fisch11
08-01-2011, 05:01 PM
I tend to agree with this.

I would be tempted to do the deal but I probably wouldn't pull the trigger. Going forward I peg Votto to have better offensive numbers. I also still am leery about Bautista and his overnight power acquisition. Its pretty much unheard of and while I am not saying he did anything illegal, just raising the question.

It also assumes that Alonso can come right in and fill the 1b void. Alonso ain't Votto. I don't know what kind of player in the future he will become but I doubt he comes close to Votto's overall production.

I'm with you on this. You can't assume Alonso's production given an everyday job. Yeah you may fill the void at LF, but maybe just moved the problem to 1st base. I remember a guy named Brandon Larson that lots of people assumed would produce at 3rd base. Prospects are called prospects for a reason.

Guacarock
08-01-2011, 05:01 PM
Votto's plate music is "Paint It Black." I'm no psychologist, but you don't need to be able to decipher a Rorschach to catch the drift of the lyrics he plays: "I see a red door and I want it painted black."

If you ask me, at best, we can hope to keep him around through 2012 and then have to shop him under the gun the next winter, with everyone knowing he won't sign past 2013.

Better, if you ask me, to shop him while we've still got more control of the situation and the time to find the right deal. A deal for Bautista? That would be a deal I'd be hard-pressed to pass up, not only given Bautista's right-handed power but also the positions he plays (LF and 3B) and the availability of Alonso to take over the helm at 1B.

I like Votto a lot -- he's Vottomatic! -- but I'm also a realist. If the Reds can contend, it doesn't matter to me if we've got a MVP on the roster or not.

dougdirt
08-01-2011, 05:02 PM
That's short-sighted though, Doug.

The deal wouldn't be made because of how much better Bautista is now, the question is how likely is it that Bautista will continue to be better.

I really think one can make a tremendous case that is a risky proposition to assume Bautista will continue producing at this pace. Right now, Bautista is awesome. Tremendous production. But I still think he's fools gold long-term.

Bautista could take a 200 point OPS drop over the next 4 seasons and still be a .900+ OPS bat. I will take my chances with that and never think twice about it.

dougdirt
08-01-2011, 05:05 PM
I'm with you on this. You can't assume Alonso's production given an everyday job. Yeah you may fill the void at LF, but maybe just moved the problem to 1st base. I remember a guy named Brandon Larson that lots of people assumed would produce at 3rd base. Prospects are called prospects for a reason.

A lot of people were stupid when it came to Brandon Larson. Brandon Larson had bust written all over him from day 1. He was an incredibly older prospect who had poor plate discipline and poor defense. Go back and look at his numbers in the K and BB departments for his entire minor league career. They are poor all the way up the ladder. Comparing that to a player who has outstanding plate discipline is a very poor approach to making your argument. IF you wanted to make an apt one for "that's why they are prospects" go with someone like Alex Gordon (who is actually having a very good year now, at age 27).

Big Klu
08-01-2011, 05:08 PM
Rather see Joey stay, go to LF himself, open spot for Yonder, then sign a longer term deal. But apart from that scenario, this makes a lot of sense, especially given Bautista's contract through 2015.


Could come down to a Walt-Joey come-to-Jesus meeting.

"We love you, Joey, but we're thinking about trading you for a left fielder. We can't afford to get what we need in free agency and we have Yonder waiting to play first. Would you rather us trade you during this contract, or would you consider moving to left? It's up to you. Did I mention we love you?"

Why would Joey Votto be considered a viable option to play LF? In six years in the Reds' minor-league system, he made a total of 45 appearances in the OF. At the major-league level, he played a total of six games in LF in September of 2007. Since then he has been the regular 1B for four years, including two All-Star appearances and a NL MVP Award. The "Votto to LF" ship has sailed, if it ever got out of drydock in the first place.

corkedbat
08-01-2011, 05:09 PM
If Joey doesn't give the Reds any indication this offseason that he would be willing to resign here long-term, and if Toronto is still interested this offseason, I'd make the trade.

The winter meetings have all of a sudden become a lot more interesting ... and it's Aug. 1.

I agree. I think they already know the answer, but if I'm the Reds, I would schedule a sitdown with Joey's representation as soon as possible (after the season's end) and make my very best, top-drawer final offer to extend. If he says, no, then you have to look for the best deal for him.

Toronto is the destination that would seem to be the very best fir and Bautista might be one of the few targets that could match Joey's production straight up. As I said earlier though, there is no way i would finalize the deal unless I was able to fully satisfy myself that there is no validity to the steroid suspicions.

puca
08-01-2011, 05:13 PM
Its exactly the kind of deal the Reds should explore.

I was thinking Votto for Kemp myself, but Joey being from Toronto and all may make this a better fit.

Adding a top RH bat - even at the expense of our best LH bat - would improve the lineup more than squeezing both Votto and Alonzo into it.

Do that and then find someone willing to deal a TOR type arm for a package of Stubbs+ Grandal + pitcher not named Cueto/Leake/Chapmam; insert Sappelt as CF/leadoff hitter (with Heisey as the fallback) and the 2012 Reds have the potential to be a monster.

Brutus
08-01-2011, 05:14 PM
A lot of people were stupid when it came to Brandon Larson. Brandon Larson had bust written all over him from day 1. He was an incredibly older prospect who had poor plate discipline and poor defense. Go back and look at his numbers in the K and BB departments for his entire minor league career. They are poor all the way up the ladder. Comparing that to a player who has outstanding plate discipline is a very poor approach to making your argument. IF you wanted to make an apt one for "that's why they are prospects" go with someone like Alex Gordon (who is actually having a very good year now, at age 27).

He could also fall off the face of the Earth and revert back to his .750 OPS days.

Not likely, but it also wasn't likely he'd go from a .750 bat to a 1.100 bat either.

Point is, Joey Votto is a safer bet right now and is cheaper, at least for the time being. Unless it's determined that Votto isn't sticking around beyond free agency, I don't do the deal.

And contrary to the strong rhetoric, I don't think it's a no-brainer otherwise, though don't construe that for not understanding the logic. I just think Alonso is being overrated to this point, Bautista's likelihood of continuing this production is being overly assumed and Votto's perceived reluctance to commit long-term is being construed probably prematurely as a commitment to leaving.

I(heart)Freel
08-01-2011, 05:16 PM
Why would Joey Votto be considered a viable option to play LF? In six years in the Reds' minor-league system, he made a total of 45 appearances in the OF. At the major-league level, he played a total of six games in LF in September of 2007. Since then he has been the regular 1B for four years, including two All-Star appearances and a NL MVP Award. The "Votto to LF" ship has sailed, if it ever got out of drydock in the first place.

Viable? Because he wasn't bad there. I know it's been a while but Joey is pretty athletic. And the Reds have started some entirely nonathletic left fielders in the recent past.

My whole point was, you can give Joey a choice. Stay and play left or go to Toronto. The Reds may well believe they owe him that choice. Within that discussion, you can find out whether he wants to stay in Cincinnati long-term.

Players have moved before. Even super-stars. But it should probably be done as their own choice. This isn't like asking Joey to suddenly give birth or something. He's physically able to do this.

corkedbat
08-01-2011, 05:20 PM
Why would Joey Votto be considered a viable option to play LF? In six years in the Reds' minor-league system, he made a total of 45 appearances in the OF. At the major-league level, he played a total of six games in LF in September of 2007. Since then he has been the regular 1B for four years, including two All-Star appearances and a NL MVP Award. The "Votto to LF" ship has sailed, if it ever got out of drydock in the first place.

Agreed. Asking Joey to move to LF would be more likely to drive him him to FA and make him unwilling to discuss an extension.. JV is a 1B (and a darned good one). It is not selfish of him to resist a move to a position where he might not feel comfortable and a move that may well bring down his value.

Protecting your value as a player is not selfish, it's protecting his livelihood. We have two very good !Bs (one proven vet and one top prospect). The time is fast approaching to settle on a solution. Moving one or the other to LF is not the best solution.

osuceltic
08-01-2011, 05:23 PM
Bautista has been in the bigs for some or all of eight seasons. In the first six, his OPS+ was never higher than 99. Last year it was 164. For his career, this is who he is: .254 .358 .479 .837.

Votto has been in the bigs for some or all of five seasons and has never had an OPS+ lower than 125. For his career, this is who he is: .315 .406 .549 .955.

This year, the soon-to-be-31-year-old Bautista is outproducing the soon-to-be-28-year-old Votto. For their careers, it isn't close. Now, knowing all that and their ages, who is more likely to continue producing at this year's level?

I'm amazed that some of the same posters who always preach the importance of sample size are arguing so strongly that this is a no-brainer. Can an argument be made that this would be a reasonable trade? Sure. But it's far from the slam dunk that it's being made out to be.

osuceltic
08-01-2011, 05:25 PM
He could also fall off the face of the Earth and revert back to his .750 OPS days.

Not likely, but it also wasn't likely he'd go from a .750 bat to a 1.100 bat either.

Point is, Joey Votto is a safer bet right now and is cheaper, at least for the time being. Unless it's determined that Votto isn't sticking around beyond free agency, I don't do the deal.

And contrary to the strong rhetoric, I don't think it's a no-brainer otherwise, though don't construe that for not understanding the logic. I just think Alonso is being overrated to this point, Bautista's likelihood of continuing this production is being overly assumed and Votto's perceived reluctance to commit long-term is being construed probably prematurely as a commitment to leaving.

I'm going to start calling him Yonder Driessen.

Superdude
08-01-2011, 05:34 PM
Bautista has been in the bigs for some or all of eight seasons. In the first six, his OPS+ was never higher than 99. Last year it was 164. For his career, this is who he is: .254 .358 .479 .837.

Votto has been in the bigs for some or all of five seasons and has never had an OPS+ lower than 125. For his career, this is who he is: .315 .406 .549 .955.

This year, the soon-to-be-31-year-old Bautista is outproducing the soon-to-be-28-year-old Votto. For their careers, it isn't close. Now, knowing all that and their ages, who is more likely to continue producing at this year's level?

I'm amazed that some of the same posters who always preach the importance of sample size are arguing so strongly that this is a no-brainer. Can an argument be made that this would be a reasonable trade? Sure. But it's far from the slam dunk that it's being made out to be.

260 games is not a small sample size. Bautista is a completely different hitter now than he has been throughout his career and there is no fluke about it at this point. Career numbers are irrelevant.

I would love to see this hammered out in the offseason. The lineup would be frightening.

Benihana
08-01-2011, 05:50 PM
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2387624&postcount=25

Someone smart was on this one months ago :p

This is one of those deals that makes too much hypothetical sense to actually happen.

But it would be pretty cool if it did.

Brutus
08-01-2011, 05:53 PM
Thing is -- even if he is using (which I doubt, at this point) he obviously has found a way to do it without getting caught. So, any risk of drop-off in production is probably negligible.

What about the risk of age? Many, many studies have shown that a drop-off in production usually does begin around 32 years old.

He's going be 32 next fall. It's purely anecdotal, but Dunn is turning 32 in November and we're seeing how that's treated him this season.

Like 27 has been shown to historically be the age players reach their physical maturity/peak, 32 has been an age where players begin to decline. Probably not surprisingly, that's about the age where medical studies have concluded that players' naturally recurring HGH levels begin subsiding.

camisadelgolf
08-01-2011, 05:59 PM
I'd love this deal for the position flexibility it gives the Reds.
Got an injury to Alonso, Bruce, or Rolen? No problem. Move Bautista over and rely on Todd Frazier.

RedlegJake
08-01-2011, 06:03 PM
This is one of those "all the sound and fury signifying nothing" arguments that so often arises on RZ. I'd keep Votto UNLESS and this is what makes this argument useless - unless Joey has no intention of staying in Cincy no matter what the offer is for reasons having nothing to do with money or contract length - something none of us can be privy to. If, in fairness to management he has told them for personal reasons he intends to leave and is telling them so they have a chance to trade him for something (which would be incredibly fair-minded and show that he cares about the city and the franchise though he wants to be closer to home or whatever) then perhaps there's substance behind the smoke - perhaps prelim talks already but the trigger's been delayed til the post season when details can be worked out (like added players). Anyway - aspersions about Bautista's possible PED use are low class and unless you have proof don't bring that bs to the table - it just makes an argument look tacky. Can't find anything else to say? Let's holler PEDs.

reds44
08-01-2011, 06:24 PM
I'm not sure if this has been posted, but Sheldon said he didn't hear or believe that this was actually discussed.

johngalt
08-01-2011, 06:27 PM
I'm not sure if this has been posted, but Sheldon said he didn't hear or believe that this was actually discussed.

The fact that the Blue Jays had someone in Dayton to specifically look at Corcino tells you the Reds and Jays were discussing some kind of deal. If teams are just doing their usual coverage, they don't go there to hit specific players. They just go in waves to cover a team.

Now, obviously that doesn't mean this deal in particular was being discussed, but it does tell you the two sides were talking about something and had been specific enough to throw Corcino's name in.

reds44
08-01-2011, 06:36 PM
The fact that the Blue Jays had someone in Dayton to specifically look at Corcino tells you the Reds and Jays were discussing some kind of deal. If teams are just doing their usual coverage, they don't go there to hit specific players. They just go in waves to cover a team.

Now, obviously that doesn't mean this deal in particular was being discussed, but it does tell you the two sides were talking about something and had been specific enough to throw Corcino's name in.
It could have been anything though. To say it had to do with Votto and Bautista is a reach.

Brutus
08-01-2011, 06:37 PM
The fact that the Blue Jays had someone in Dayton to specifically look at Corcino tells you the Reds and Jays were discussing some kind of deal. If teams are just doing their usual coverage, they don't go there to hit specific players. They just go in waves to cover a team.

Now, obviously that doesn't mean this deal in particular was being discussed, but it does tell you the two sides were talking about something and had been specific enough to throw Corcino's name in.

The Reds had been linked to Jason Frasor and/or Brandon Morrow on a few occasions. So it's probably as simple as that.

JaxRed
08-01-2011, 06:42 PM
Not without some risks, but I would have done the deal.

RedsManRick
08-01-2011, 06:43 PM
I would have been pro trade easily. I think people under-appreciate just how awesome Bautista has been. In terms of OPS, Votto is the mid-point between Bautista and Brandon Phillips. If you believe in Bautista, and nothing in his peripherals or scouting report suggest it's unsustainable, this isn't our great player for your great player. It's our MVP candidate for your inner-circle HOFer. He would be a clear and significant upgrade. Add in that it would open a position for Alonso and balance the lineup and it would just be an awesome addition.

Who knows if the deal was actually discussed, but I wouldn't be surprised if the idea came up. I think we under-estimate just how many conversations are constantly happening between organizations. Jocketty has a track record of pairing a willingness to make the big move with a healthy dose of prudence. I'd be fascinated by how the press would handle it.

SirFelixCat
08-01-2011, 06:44 PM
As I said in the other thread -- I'd have kicked in Corcino and done the deal without a second thought.

Your 2012 Reds could've been:

Phillips
Cozart
Bautista
Mesoraco
Bruce
Rolen
Alonso
Stubbs

That's disgusting.

I totally agree.:thumbup:

RedLegSuperStar
08-01-2011, 06:51 PM
Why? Not saying you are wrong, but I'd like to hear the thinking. Bautista will be cheaper to control for a longer time, and we have an in house replacement for first base.

I love me some Joey Votto, but I love World Series appearances more.

Jose Bautista has taken the Jays to the World Series? He hasn't homered since July 9th.. which is unheard of for him who usually homers in every 15 or so ABs. I'd love to have JoeyBats19 on this club but not at the cost of our MVP and a Cueto-type prospect. Votto is a constant .300 hitter where as Bautista is a career .250-.260 hitter. Yes Jose hits HR's but he is on pace for 47 a year after he hit 54. Years previous w/ at least 110 games:

2006: (PIT) 16
2007: (PIT) 15
2008: (PIT/TOR) 15
2009: (TOR) 13
2010: (TOR) 54
2011: (TOR) 31*

Jose Bautista is 30 & Joey Votto is 27

I'd rather add a bat to go with Votto, Bruce, & Phillips versus deal Votto for a guy who might hit 50 HRs. I'll take a Gold Glove 1st baseman over an above average LFer. I understand it opens the door for Yonder Alonso.. but why have him out in LF for majority of the 2011 season for the Bats? This could be one of those never ending debates but my verdict rests with Joey Votto.

corkedbat
08-01-2011, 06:54 PM
This is one of those "all the sound and fury signifying nothing" arguments that so often arises on RZ. I'd keep Votto UNLESS and this is what makes this argument useless - unless Joey has no intention of staying in Cincy no matter what the offer is for reasons having nothing to do with money or contract length - something none of us can be privy to. If, in fairness to management he has told them for personal reasons he intends to leave and is telling them so they have a chance to trade him for something (which would be incredibly fair-minded and show that he cares about the city and the franchise though he wants to be closer to home or whatever) then perhaps there's substance behind the smoke - perhaps prelim talks already but the trigger's been delayed til the post season when details can be worked out (like added players). Anyway - aspersions about Bautista's possible PED use are low class and unless you have proof don't bring that bs to the table - it just makes an argument look tacky. Can't find anything else to say? Let's holler PEDs.

Joey has said several times that he enjoys it in Cincy, but he always seems to punctuate it by saying something about he has to leave the option of hitting the market in fairness to himself and family. This, by itself, does not mean that much, but if he were not expecting to at least hit the open market, the two sides would have come up with a number to buy at least a year or two of his free agency.

My feeling is that the organization already knows that he is tesing the market. I don't think they would consider the reported trade discussions (if they occured) . Even at that, I would approach JV and his advisors after the season with the clubs best and final offer.

Speculation, absolutely, but not commpletely uninformed. And isn't speculation what fan boards all about. You might as well shut the Redszone down and read the newspaper it you want hard facts without speculation (and even at that you'd probably be disappointed).

RedLegSuperStar
08-01-2011, 06:58 PM
Joey has said several times that he enjoys it in Cincy, but he always seems to punctuate it by saying something about he has to leave the option of hitting the market in fairness to himself and family. This, by itself, does not mean that much, but if he were not expecting to at least hit the open market, the two sides would have come up with a number to buy at least a year or two of his free agency.

My feeling is that the organization already knows that he is tesing the market. I don't think they would consider the reported trade discussions (if they occured) . Even at that, I would approach JV and his advisors after the season with the clubs best and final offer.

Speculation, absolutely, but not commpletely uninformed. And isn't speculation what fan boards all about. You might as well shut the Redszone down and read the newspaper it you want hard facts without speculation (and even at that you'd probably be disappointed).

The Reds have said they plan on negotiating with Votto again before his deal is up.

fisch11
08-01-2011, 07:12 PM
A lot of people were stupid when it came to Brandon Larson. Brandon Larson had bust written all over him from day 1. He was an incredibly older prospect who had poor plate discipline and poor defense. Go back and look at his numbers in the K and BB departments for his entire minor league career. They are poor all the way up the ladder. Comparing that to a player who has outstanding plate discipline is a very poor approach to making your argument. IF you wanted to make an apt one for "that's why they are prospects" go with someone like Alex Gordon (who is actually having a very good year now, at age 27).

Brandon Larson AAA 2002 (Age 26), hit .340 with 25 HR and 1.059 OPS in 80 games. He came up to the big club and flopped. Went back down in 2003 and hit .323 with 20 HR and 1.001 OPS in 72 games. Came back to the show and flopped again. Rinse and repeat. He never proved he could hit major league pitching when given the opportunity repeatedly.

Yonder Alonso (Age 24) in AAA this year through 91 games: .296, 12 HR, .860 OPS. Larson's production at 2 years older was more productive than what Alonso has done thus far in one of his best minor league seasons. I agree with you that Yonder shows better discipline and has a much better SO history. If you compare those numbers I don't think I am way off line here.

I am not trying to compare Alonso to Larson by any stretch of the imagination. I was using Larson as an example and simply pointing out that minor league success doesn't always translate to the bigs. Alonso could end up a AAAA player just like Brandon for all we know at this point. I don't believe that he will given his much better low ball track record than Larson's as you pointed out, but my main point is that you can't assume production no matter how probable the success might seem.

I just think that this trade would be risky because you haven't seen Alonso prove what many assume his production would be as an everyday first baseman in the majors. Say Bautista's numbers wouldn't slide as a Reds LF. What if Alonso didn't produce for 2 years? Then you just shifted the problem from LF to 1B and swapped your youth and upside. And I am generously leaving out the speculation that Corcinco is in the trade as well.

RichRed
08-01-2011, 07:21 PM
The age thing, not possible PED usage, is what gives me pause. In addition, I have to question whether a team with a putrid history of developing pitchers should give up a top pitching prospect like Corcino - IF that's what it would take. Especially when run scoring is not exactly a weakness.

Now if Votto makes it clear he's blowing this pop stand the first chance he gets, that changes things, but as it stands now, I'd have to lean on the side of not doing that deal.

corkedbat
08-01-2011, 07:22 PM
The Reds have said they plan on negotiating with Votto again before his deal is up.


they'd say that for public consumption no matter what. If you see him dealt before that contract is up, chances are they hew they ciukdn't offer the moeny he's looking for. I believe that if he were willing to fo past his final year of arbitration, he would have already done so .Just my reading of the tea leaves. If someone else sees it differently that is fine. No way of knowing for sure until there is a deal or he is here in 2014.

Boss-Hog
08-01-2011, 09:00 PM
I'm going to create a new thread for the pages of posts that are completely irrelevant to the original topic. Please keep this thread for its started purpose of discussion.

Tony Cloninger
08-01-2011, 10:30 PM
WHY would the Reds have to add a prospect on top of the NL MVP again? That is the part of this alleged deal that I do not understand.

dougdirt
08-01-2011, 10:36 PM
WHY would the Reds have to add a prospect on top of the NL MVP again? That is the part of this alleged deal that I do not understand.

Because Jose Bautista is a lot better than Joey Votto is. Bautista has a larger gap in OPS between he and Votto than Votto has between he and Miguel Cairo. And his contract goes longer.

WVPacman
08-01-2011, 11:54 PM
I WOULD DO THIS TRADE IN A HEARTBEAT B/C VOTTO,CLEARLY DOES'NT WANT TO BE HEAR AND HE WANTS TO GO HOME.tHIS TRADE WOULD BENIFET BOTH TEAMS.

Reds/Flyers Fan
08-02-2011, 12:19 AM
As I said in the other thread -- I'd have kicked in Corcino and done the deal without a second thought.

Your 2012 Reds could've been:

Phillips
Cozart
Bautista
Mesoraco
Bruce
Rolen
Alonso
Stubbs

That's disgusting.

Sign. Me. Up.

kaldaniels
08-02-2011, 12:41 AM
WHY would the Reds have to add a prospect on top of the NL MVP again? That is the part of this alleged deal that I do not understand.

Because we are trading for the 2011 AL MVP in all likelihood (and at minimum is a better hitter than Votto looking at the 2010 and 2011 seasons combined), who is under contract for more years at a reasonable contract. Votto's 2013- seasons will cost more than what JoeyBats will get paid.

I beg you, please tell me you understand why Jose has more trade value than Joey.

mth123
08-02-2011, 02:11 AM
I'd do it because Bautista (at 3B) plus Alonso is better than Votto and the ashes of Scott Rolen and whichever flawed prospect the Reds might turn to. I do recognize that Bautista could return to human being status as quickly as he became Superman. I keep thinking of George Foster when thinking of Bautista. These last two seasons might just be comparable to Foster's 1977 and 1978. He might have another top season or two in him, but the Mets version might be around the corner. I'd still do it.

Dan
08-02-2011, 06:53 AM
Bautista's age factors into it that I would rather not do that particular trade. I'm not against trading Votto, especially to Toronto. But I would rather have Lind and prospects than Bautista straight up.

buckeyenut
08-02-2011, 06:56 AM
Can Bautista legitimately play 3B? If he can and I can put Saffelt in LF, I pull the trigger and let Rolen play a backup role.

Saffelt
Phillips
Bautista
Bruce
Alonso
Stubbs
Mesarasco
Cozart

Holy crap that is an offense.

membengal
08-02-2011, 07:31 AM
I floated this as making sense in some thread or another a few weeks back. I still think it makes sense.

cumberlandreds
08-02-2011, 07:37 AM
I would seriously consider the trade. I just don't know much about Bautista, the person. I assume he's a hard worker who would keep working hard later in his career. I would certainly investigate his sudden power surge the last two years. Is he a two year wonder or can he continue this a few more seasons? Certainly something to keep the old hot stove going this winter.

Mario-Rijo
08-02-2011, 08:47 AM
I am shocked by some of the folks here who would have done that deal. I wouldn't do it, not even consider it. The guy is 3 years older and came mysteriously out of nowhere to start hitting bombs like he is the Babe but couldn't muster 15 the year before that or anything more than 16 in a season. That's not suspicious that is flat out guilty of something whether baseball can prove it or not.

Now if someone wants to talk Ryan Zimmerman or Evan Longoria I'm all ears. Besides Yonder Alonso might someday be Carlos Pena if he is lucky (sans the defense) but I'm not seeing anything more than that.

Tony Cloninger
08-02-2011, 10:20 AM
Because we are trading for the 2011 AL MVP in all likelihood (and at minimum is a better hitter than Votto looking at the 2010 and 2011 seasons combined), who is under contract for more years at a reasonable contract. Votto's 2013- seasons will cost more than what JoeyBats will get paid.

I beg you, please tell me you understand why Jose has more trade value than Joey.


Good grief....I don't need to the condescending tone of your last remark. If you have that little level of respect for my baseball intelligence ..why even bother responding to me?

You have other people questioning it due to Jose's age and how with just some minor tweaks he turned into Joe D. ....are you begging them to tell you why they don't understand what you do?

osuceltic
08-02-2011, 10:27 AM
Because Jose Bautista is a lot better than Joey Votto is. Bautista has a larger gap in OPS between he and Votto than Votto has between he and Miguel Cairo. And his contract goes longer.

This year. This year only. Even last year, when Bautista suddenly became a monster, he was less monstrous than Votto.

What happened to buy low, sell high? Has anyone ever been bought higher than Bautista would be right now? Never mind the power surge, he's batting 60 points higher than last year's career high. Do you honestly believe he's a .325 hitter and 1.100 OPS guy going forward? For how long?

I'm not saying it isn't worth considering, but it's not anywhere near the no-brainer you're making it out to be.

reds1869
08-02-2011, 11:30 AM
This year. This year only. Even last year, when Bautista suddenly became a monster, he was less monstrous than Votto.

What happened to buy low, sell high? Has anyone ever been bought higher than Bautista would be right now? Never mind the power surge, he's batting 60 points higher than last year's career high. Do you honestly believe he's a .325 hitter and 1.100 OPS guy going forward? For how long?

I'm not saying it isn't worth considering, but it's not anywhere near the no-brainer you're making it out to be.

I agree with this. I wouldn't make the move for many of the reasons rehashed in this thread, the main ones being age and probability that Bautista will return to Earth. There are players I would deal Votto for but none of them are over the age of 30.

Reds/Flyers Fan
08-02-2011, 11:55 AM
Toronto, more than any other team, should be expected to overpay for Joey Votto. Now way should the Reds be tossing in top prospects to sweeten the deal if the Jays are getting a hometown boy who will instantly increase local interest in that club and sell tickets - and, oh yea, he's the National League MVP to boot.

If there's any throwing in of additional players in a Votto-Bautista trade, it should come on Toronto's end. What about Colby Rasmus? Any chance that he could be part of a Votto-Bautista deal between these two teams?

dougdirt
08-02-2011, 01:25 PM
This year. This year only. Even last year, when Bautista suddenly became a monster, he was less monstrous than Votto.

What happened to buy low, sell high? Has anyone ever been bought higher than Bautista would be right now? Never mind the power surge, he's batting 60 points higher than last year's career high. Do you honestly believe he's a .325 hitter and 1.100 OPS guy going forward? For how long?

I'm not saying it isn't worth considering, but it's not anywhere near the no-brainer you're making it out to be.

I honestly believe that over the next 2.3 years that we have Votto under contract that Jose Bautista will clearly out OPS him. Bautista walks more, strikes out less and has far more power. That is a very good recipe for success.

Plus Plus
08-02-2011, 02:02 PM
Has a blockbuster trade like this (two players who are in the top ~10 in the game) ever happened, in any sport?

That's why I tend to disbelieve this possibility, even though it does make sense. For example, a trade of LeBron for Dwight Howard makes sense too, but has about zero likelihood of happening.

*BaseClogger*
08-02-2011, 02:30 PM
Has a blockbuster trade like this (two players who are in the top ~10 in the game) ever happened, in any sport?

That's why I tend to disbelieve this possibility, even though it does make sense. For example, a trade of LeBron for Dwight Howard makes sense too, but has about zero likelihood of happening.

Baseball has a lot less chemistry involved than the two other major sports, however. It's much more likely to happen in baseball than the NFL or NBA...

camisadelgolf
08-02-2011, 02:33 PM
That's also not to mention the lack of a salary cap hit that would incur should baseball teams pull off a deal involving top players of the game.

MikeS21
08-02-2011, 02:49 PM
I am concerned about the age difference, too. I understand his OPS is higher than Votto's at this point. But difference is that at Votto's age, he is likely to go up, and at Bautista's age, he is likely to decrease.

And yeah, warning bells go off for me when a guy's OPS jumps 250 points from one season to the next, and another 120 points beyond that for this year so far. A 370 point jump in OPS in one and a half seasons? At some point he'll come back down to earth. I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop.

RichRed
08-02-2011, 03:02 PM
Has a blockbuster trade like this (two players who are in the top ~10 in the game) ever happened, in any sport?


The owners of the Yankees and Red Sox supposedly agreed to a trade of Joe DiMaggio for Ted Williams over too many drinks one night, but then sobered up the next day and called it off.

Dan
08-02-2011, 05:51 PM
Has a blockbuster trade like this (two players who are in the top ~10 in the game) ever happened, in any sport?

That's why I tend to disbelieve this possibility, even though it does make sense. For example, a trade of LeBron for Dwight Howard makes sense too, but has about zero likelihood of happening.

Closest I can think of is joe Carter and Robbie alomar for mcgriff and tony Fernandez.

buckeyenut
08-02-2011, 08:31 PM
Toronto, more than any other team, should be expected to overpay for Joey Votto. Now way should the Reds be tossing in top prospects to sweeten the deal if the Jays are getting a hometown boy who will instantly increase local interest in that club and sell tickets - and, oh yea, he's the National League MVP to boot.

If there's any throwing in of additional players in a Votto-Bautista trade, it should come on Toronto's end. What about Colby Rasmus? Any chance that he could be part of a Votto-Bautista deal between these two teams?

Wouldn't that be something? If Bautista can play 3B, Bautista and Rasmus for Votto, Corcino and Duran?

Stick Rasmus in LF, Bautista at 3B, Alonso at 1B and worry about how many playoff tickets we are going to have to print.

Mario-Rijo
08-02-2011, 08:47 PM
Wouldn't that be something? If Bautista can play 3B, Bautista and Rasmus for Votto, Corcino and Duran?

Stick Rasmus in LF, Bautista at 3B, Alonso at 1B and worry about how many playoff tickets we are going to have to print.

Now that is something that would intrigue me a bit more.

Big Klu
08-02-2011, 08:50 PM
Has a blockbuster trade like this (two players who are in the top ~10 in the game) ever happened, in any sport?

That's why I tend to disbelieve this possibility, even though it does make sense. For example, a trade of LeBron for Dwight Howard makes sense too, but has about zero likelihood of happening.

In April 1960, the Indians traded 1959 AL home run champ Rocky Colavito to the Tigers for 1959 AL batting champ Harvey Kuenn.

kaldaniels
08-03-2011, 12:42 AM
Good grief....I don't need to the condescending tone of your last remark. If you have that little level of respect for my baseball intelligence ..why even bother responding to me?

You have other people questioning it due to Jose's age and how with just some minor tweaks he turned into Joe D. ....are you begging them to tell you why they don't understand what you do?

I don't begrudge you a bit if you don't want to do the deal. It has its risks and I understand that.

Having said that, your orignal post brought no argument/discussion point to the table other than Votto was the 2010 MVP. But you failed to mention that since the start of the 2010 season, Bautista has put up better numbers than Votto. I'd wager he is the best batter in baseball over the past 24 months. (Could be wrong).

So again, to prefer Votto is fine, but at least understand how it is possible Joeybats is more valuable in a trade. To each his own though. I respect you.

thatcoolguy_22
08-03-2011, 02:26 AM
I'm very late to this discussion and have nothing that hasn't already been said to add, but I respect everyone :) one of my dogs is named votto, and I would leap at the deal. I would have Bautista in LF until Rolen's contract is up (or he retires) and look to put a package together for a TOR starter out of minor league depth. Add a shields or whoever qualifies as TOR in today's game with Bautista and this lineup becomes a young Yankees team. At least until Bautista is photographed with a syringe ;) (I keed)

corkedbat
08-03-2011, 11:09 PM
I just can't understand all the concerns about age in all of this. Yes, he is three years older than Joey, but we will be 35 in 2015 when the deal is over, not 45. I just don't see that as a problem for a LFer, especially one in pretty good shape like Bautista as opposed to one in poor shape like Dunn.

The more i think about the deal, the more I like it. I would continue to stay in touch with the Jay and consumate the deal as soon after the end of the World Series as possible. I do it to set a tempo for the offseason and to send a signal to the fans. I would try to expand it and I would do all poosible to erase any doubys about the steroid rumors, but I would do it. Then, I woyld spend the rest of the winter concentrating on a TOR and other minot pieces.

This team finally kicked down the door and made it to the playoffs last year. Th RO's failed to build on that success even though the seame problems that they have now were evident then. Now they have to be twice as smart and twice as agressive this coming offseason to amke up for it.

Mario-Rijo
08-04-2011, 08:36 AM
I just can't understand all the concerns about age in all of this. Yes, he is three years older than Joey, but we will be 35 in 2015 when the deal is over, not 45. I just don't see that as a problem for a LFer, especially one in pretty good shape like Bautista as opposed to one in poor shape like Dunn.

The more i think about the deal, the more I like it. I would continue to stay in touch with the Jay and consumate the deal as soon after the end of the World Series as possible. I do it to set a tempo for the offseason and to send a signal to the fans. I would try to expand it and I would do all poosible to erase any doubys about the steroid rumors, but I would do it. Then, I woyld spend the rest of the winter concentrating on a TOR and other minot pieces.

This team finally kicked down the door and made it to the playoffs last year. Th RO's failed to build on that success even though the seame problems that they have now were evident then. Now they have to be twice as smart and twice as agressive this coming offseason to amke up for it.

Because theoretically Bautista we have for a few more years and then he is gone/done (35 year olds are darn near done post & pre PED's) but as much as so many want to believe Votto is no longer gonna be a Red after his current contract we don't know that to be true. Personally I think Votto is being as honest as possible and just isn't certain what he wants to do. But I think if this F.O. shows him they want to win and he realizes how comfortable he can live in Cincy as opposed to some other major league communities where he is likely gonna be constantly bothered the leverage will be to remain. Bottom line is we can have an MVP bat for 3-4 years or 9. Not only that but decline can begin anywhere from 31 on and usually starts around 33-34.

I'd love to get Bautista in this lineup and I would pay a hefty package right now for him for this 2 year run we can make but I wouldn't trade Votto or Bruce (or Cueto) in any package for him. I believe whole heartedly if we offer the Jays an arm or overall deal they can't refuse we can toss in Alonso and perhaps Grandal and be loaded for the next 2 years. Can you imagine this offense with a 3-4-5 of Votto-Bautista-Bruce? Better yet can you imagine Votto wanting to leave with Bautista (who he seems to really love) and Bruce still here? Make a run for him but not this deal.

Jose Bautista & Pile O'Cash to the Reds

Volquez/Wood (perhaps even both), Yorman/Duran, Boxberger/Joseph, Alonso & Grandal (heck I might even toss in Francisco)

Now I know that is a steep price but I believe the Jays will see this is too good to pass up. Plus we would likely have to overpay with prospects to get the Jays to pony up some dollars to help us afford Bautista. The Jays aren't gonna compete for the division with Bautista anyhow and should love to pile up these prospects for a future run.

Sappelt LF
BP 2B
Votto 1B
Bautista 3B
Bruce RF
Stubbs CF
Mes C
Cozart SS

Hanigan C
Frazier CIF/COF
Heisey OF
Janish IF
Hermida (or some other LHH OF) OF

That's not a bad offense.

lollipopcurve
08-04-2011, 08:52 AM
If the Reds are investigating this kind of trade, I'd wager a significant sum of money they're convinced they've got little to no shot of retaining Votto at the end of his deal.

I agree. To me, it all comes down to whether Votto is extendable, and I doubt he is, much less at a discount.

I'd do the deal this offseason if they can't extend Votto. Bautista is just too good a fit position-wise, while Alonso would be ready to take over at 1B. I think Bautista is a good leader, too. The one caveat being the extra player or players Toronto may want. I wouldn't want to see the Reds peel off more than one good prospect without getting anything beyond Bautista back.

Toronto's GM is hyperactive. Good target for a headliner deal.

Caveat Emperor
08-04-2011, 01:40 PM
I agree. To me, it all comes down to whether Votto is extendable, and I doubt he is, much less at a discount.

I'd do the deal this offseason if they can't extend Votto. Bautista is just too good a fit position-wise, while Alonso would be ready to take over at 1B. I think Bautista is a good leader, too. The one caveat being the extra player or players Toronto may want. I wouldn't want to see the Reds peel off more than one good prospect without getting anything beyond Bautista back.

Toronto's GM is hyperactive. Good target for a headliner deal.

We already unloaded one 3rd baseman who couldn't field or hit major league pitching on them, why not try again with Juan Francisco?

Degenerate39
08-04-2011, 03:41 PM
CF: Stubbs
SS: Cozart
LF: Bautista
1st: Alonso
RF: Bruce
2nd: Phillips
3rd: Rolen
C: Mes
Pitcher

I like it

REDREAD
08-04-2011, 04:08 PM
I would rather give Toronto Bruce instead of Votto.
Don't know if they'd accept it, but I'd much rather find a way to get Bautista without giving up Cueto or Votto.

corkedbat
08-04-2011, 04:09 PM
CF: Stubbs
SS: Cozart
LF: Bautista
1st: Alonso
RF: Bruce
2nd: Phillips
3rd: Rolen
C: Mes
Pitcher

I like it


I'd like to see Bruce protected by Bautista.. I also don't believe Dusty would drop BP that low.

CF Stubbs/Heisey/Sappelt (dependant on other deals)
2B Phillips
RF Bruce
LF Bautista
1B Alonso
CA Mesoraco
3B Rolen (or) Frazier/Francisco
SS Cozart

redsfandan
08-05-2011, 07:10 AM
Because theoretically Bautista we have for a few more years and then he is gone/done (35 year olds are darn near done post & pre PED's) but as much as so many want to believe Votto is no longer gonna be a Red after his current contract we don't know that to be true. Personally I think Votto is being as honest as possible and just isn't certain what he wants to do. But I think if this F.O. shows him they want to win and he realizes how comfortable he can live in Cincy as opposed to some other major league communities where he is likely gonna be constantly bothered the leverage will be to remain. Bottom line is we can have an MVP bat for 3-4 years or 9. Not only that but decline can begin anywhere from 31 on and usually starts around 33-34.

I'd love to get Bautista in this lineup and I would pay a hefty package right now for him for this 2 year run we can make but I wouldn't trade Votto or Bruce (or Cueto) in any package for him. I believe whole heartedly if we offer the Jays an arm or overall deal they can't refuse we can toss in Alonso and perhaps Grandal and be loaded for the next 2 years. Can you imagine this offense with a 3-4-5 of Votto-Bautista-Bruce? Better yet can you imagine Votto wanting to leave with Bautista (who he seems to really love) and Bruce still here? Make a run for him but not this deal.

Jose Bautista & Pile O'Cash to the Reds

Volquez/Wood (perhaps even both), Yorman/Duran, Boxberger/Joseph, Alonso & Grandal (heck I might even toss in Francisco)

Now I know that is a steep price but I believe the Jays will see this is too good to pass up. Plus we would likely have to overpay with prospects to get the Jays to pony up some dollars to help us afford Bautista. The Jays aren't gonna compete for the division with Bautista anyhow and should love to pile up these prospects for a future run.

Sappelt LF
BP 2B
Votto 1B
Bautista 3B
Bruce RF
Stubbs CF
Mes C
Cozart SS

Hanigan C
Frazier CIF/COF
Heisey OF
Janish IF
Hermida (or some other LHH OF) OF

That's not a bad offense.

Yes, that's a very steep price. And when did the Reds start using monolopy money for their budget. I doubt they could afford both Votto and Bautista. Also, while I think Bautista could help out at 3rd, I think he prefers being in the outfield. I'm not sure the Reds should trade for a guy and then tell him he has to play a certain position whether he wants to or not.

Unassisted
08-05-2011, 08:27 AM
Don't erase this notion from your consciousness too completely, Votto fans... this deal could still happen in the offseason.

Mario-Rijo
08-05-2011, 12:28 PM
Yes, that's a very steep price. And when did the Reds start using monolopy money for their budget. I doubt they could afford both Votto and Bautista. Also, while I think Bautista could help out at 3rd, I think he prefers being in the outfield. I'm not sure the Reds should trade for a guy and then tell him he has to play a certain position whether he wants to or not.

Well the deal I suggested was for Bautista & Pile O'Cash. I mean that's why such a large haul right. If they paid 7-8 million of his dollars that's more than well within the Reds potential budget for next year. After that BP comes off the books which is just a bit short of what Bautista makes. Or hypothetically speaking the Reds don't have to pick up BP's option at all. Just sayin'. And position is secondary really I mean if he is dead set against it well that is manageable as well because Rolen will still be here and we do have an opening in LF. I was just throwing out my ideal lineup, of course in my ideal world Bob finds a few other ways to scrape together the dough to pay 'em all than getting rid of BP.

wlf WV
08-05-2011, 02:18 PM
My 2nd post here,again thanks to everyone for receiving me.Joey Votto is as much a surety as there is in baseball.Every pitch to him seems like life or death.If Bob Gibson had an alter ego as a batter it would be Votto.His character equals or bests his ability.You can't put a stat on what's in his eyes.No way I trade him,unless he requests it.I think he will give management time to make a trade if he wants to leave.

traderumor
08-06-2011, 02:06 PM
Wouldn't it make sense to trade Votto if the Reds were comfortable that Alonso can rake and fill multiple holes while his price is peaking? I've been pondering this as I see a little more of Alonso. It would be a gutsy move and you better be right on the guys you get so it doesn't turn into a Hamilton-like deal, but I'd certainly be having that discussion in the board room.

Reds/Flyers Fan
08-06-2011, 08:40 PM
Don't erase this notion from your consciousness too completely, Votto fans... this deal could still happen in the offseason.

I'm starting to come to the realization that this trade - or one like it - has to happen for this team to take the next step. Jay Bruce, for better or worse, certainly isn't going anywhere, what with the friendly team contract and all. And with Alonso - in theory - able to step in at first next year, it should soften the blow of losing Joey.

Bringing in a stud, right-handed hitting LF who bats cleanup solves the Votto long-term contract elephant in the room problem, the nowhere-to-play Alonso problem, and certainly shakes this team up.

For what it's worth, and it's probably not a lot since they don't really know our team or the NL, but some Jays fans think Bautista would be too much to pay for JV. They actually think they're a shoe-in to sign him as a FA, and they think that Adam Lind and a couple of prospects would be enough for Votto. After I spit out my drink in laughter, I was able to copy the link:

http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?tsn=1&nav=messages&webtag=ml-bluejays&tid=75018

redsfandan
08-07-2011, 01:15 AM
For what it's worth, and it's probably not a lot since they don't really know our team or the NL, but some Jays fans think Bautista would be too much to pay for JV. They actually think they're a shoe-in to sign him as a FA, and they think that Adam Lind and a couple of prospects would be enough for Votto. After I spit out my drink in laughter, I was able to copy the link:

http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?tsn=1&nav=messages&webtag=ml-bluejays&tid=75018

Well that was interesting. Votto is making $20 million? News to me.

dougdirt
08-07-2011, 03:06 AM
I

For what it's worth, and it's probably not a lot since they don't really know our team or the NL, but some Jays fans think Bautista would be too much to pay for JV. They actually think they're a shoe-in to sign him as a FA, and they think that Adam Lind and a couple of prospects would be enough for Votto. After I spit out my drink in laughter, I was able to copy the link:

http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?tsn=1&nav=messages&webtag=ml-bluejays&tid=75018

I wouldn't trade Jose Bautista for Joey Votto.

He is worth more than what you say they offered though, by quite a bit.

Tom Servo
08-11-2011, 02:16 PM
For what it's worth George and Chris discussed the Votto for Bautista rumor a short while ago on today's game. George brought it up as a possibility and Chris said the scouts he talked to never saw it as a real option, but George believes it was in fact discussed internally.

corkedbat
08-11-2011, 04:09 PM
Can we widen the deal to include Lawrie also? :D Didn't think so.

Reds/Flyers Fan
08-11-2011, 06:10 PM
Very interesting comments from Joey Votto in Doc's column today. And even more indication that he doesn't really plan to be wearing a Cincinnati uniform much longer than he absolutely has to:

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20110811/COL03/308110016/Blame-Baseball-Votto-leaves

Kc61
08-11-2011, 06:22 PM
I'm impressed by Alonso's hitting. But I'm not trading Votto.

To me, Votto's skills translate into a long, fabulous career. He is not injury prone. He doesn't make his living on fading footspeed. He is just a pure, great hitter.

Add a solid cleanup hitter behind him, and Votto could win multiple MVP awards.

I would pay him $20 million a year to be the backbone of the Reds for years to come.

I recognize that this will reduce the payroll for other players. I'd live with that.

Alonso is still a maybe. I'm concerned about his body type and his longevity. And, by the way, as good as he's looked, is he Votto?

I'll understand it if the Reds lose Phillips due to payroll concerns. Terrific player, but not Votto.

IMO, the Reds need to pay Votto, a righty cleanup hitter, Bruce, Cueto and one other very strong starting pitcher. Everything else can be done on the relative "cheap."

Tom Servo
08-11-2011, 06:25 PM
Very interesting comments from Joey Votto in Doc's column today. And even more indication that he doesn't really plan to be wearing a Cincinnati uniform much longer than he absolutely has to:

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20110811/COL03/308110016/Blame-Baseball-Votto-leaves
I didn't get the impression that Votto plans to leave from the article at all. It just shows that Votto is smart and realizes why the Reds would trade him or let him walk in free agency.

signalhome
08-11-2011, 06:28 PM
I didn't get the impression that Votto plans to leave from the article at all. It just shows that Votto is smart and realizes why the Reds would trade him or let him walk in free agency.

Agreed. All it showed me was that Votto seems to be a very intelligent guy.

Reds/Flyers Fan
08-11-2011, 06:39 PM
Agreed. All it showed me was that Votto seems to be a very intelligent guy.

Not sure where he came up with the 500,000 figure for Cincinnati though. The Cincinnati metro is 2.3 million, and that's not even counting the Dayton area (the two metros will probably be considered one MSA in the next census).

And even, out of that 2.3 million, if only about 500,000 actively care about or are potential customers for the Reds, why assume that virtually everyone in New York cares about the Yankees/Mets?

Still, his point is well taken and I understand where he's coming from.

And I agree with Doc too: Baseball needs to figure out a way to make the situation better.

corkedbat
08-11-2011, 07:28 PM
“As ridiculous as it sounds, it would be unfair to the Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies to have the same salary structure as Kansas City, Pittsburgh or Cincinnati. We’ve got 500,000 people to please here. They’ve got 18 million to please in New York,’’ he said.



Exactly why there should have always been a 3rd franchise in the NY/NJ area.

fearofpopvol1
08-11-2011, 07:36 PM
Very interesting comments from Joey Votto in Doc's column today. And even more indication that he doesn't really plan to be wearing a Cincinnati uniform much longer than he absolutely has to:

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20110811/COL03/308110016/Blame-Baseball-Votto-leaves

Would you want to stay the way this season's gone? I wouldn't either. Not without some changes to improve the team.

Caveat Emperor
08-11-2011, 08:50 PM
I'm now firmly convinced the Reds are going to attempt to move Votto this offseason -- and, frankly, if they can get a quality bat for LF or a quality starter for him, it's the right thing to do.

Reds/Flyers Fan
08-12-2011, 12:12 AM
I'm now firmly convinced the Reds are going to attempt to move Votto this offseason -- and, frankly, if they can get a quality bat for LF or a quality starter for him, it's the right thing to do.

This is the key. They better not settle in any trade for Joey Votto. They better be getting back an All-Star caliber player. Nothing less than that will be acceptable.

dougdirt
08-12-2011, 12:45 PM
This is the key. They better not settle in any trade for Joey Votto. They better be getting back an All-Star caliber player. Nothing less than that will be acceptable.

Agreed. The Reds need to get Major Leaguer of absolute quality for him. If he gets traded for prospects short of Bryce Harper, which will never happen, the Reds are fools.

cumberlandreds
08-12-2011, 01:00 PM
I'm now firmly convinced the Reds are going to attempt to move Votto this offseason -- and, frankly, if they can get a quality bat for LF or a quality starter for him, it's the right thing to do.

You know this season is seeming more and more like 1971. After the 71 season another popular 1st baseman was traded, Lee May. As George Grande woud say "You know the rest of story"......

traderumor
08-12-2011, 01:53 PM
Daugherty's article: Why should a team still get first dibs on its homegrown "stars" if the "stars" want to take their act elsewhere? I would rather see baseball use a model where the playing field is leveled so that each franchise has an increased opportunity to bid on expensive free agents, not just given exclusive rights to a guy because he becomes a star while he is in their organization.

reds44
08-12-2011, 02:13 PM
Very interesting comments from Joey Votto in Doc's column today. And even more indication that he doesn't really plan to be wearing a Cincinnati uniform much longer than he absolutely has to:

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20110811/COL03/308110016/Blame-Baseball-Votto-leaves

WHat in that article tells you Votto wants to leave?

OldXOhio
08-12-2011, 02:54 PM
Unfortunately, I don't see how losing a talent like Joey Votto is ever going to be fully accepted by Reds fans. But if it can be done in a way that improves the overall level of the team, I'm all for it.

Reds/Flyers Fan
08-12-2011, 02:56 PM
WHat in that article tells you Votto wants to leave?

It just seems like the general vibe from JV is nonchalant, indifferent and unemotional when it comes to Cincinnati and the Reds. It's a very businesslike approach to his future - and that's perfectly fine. But as a fan, it can certainly seem that he doesn't value being here more than he has to.

You get a completely different vibe (a positive one toward playing here) from players such as Bruce and Phillips. And yes, obviously there are different personalities involved, but it just always seems like JV has his mind elsewhere.

IslandRed
08-12-2011, 03:54 PM
Unfortunately, I don't see how losing a talent like Joey Votto is ever going to be fully accepted by Reds fans. But if it can be done in a way that improves the overall level of the team, I'm all for it.

If he's traded for prospects, yeah, that wouldn't go over. But a good old-fashioned challenge trade for someone the masses have heard of, maybe that one goes down better.

fearofpopvol1
08-12-2011, 03:57 PM
WHat in that article tells you Votto wants to leave?

I don't know that the article itself says Joey wants to leave, but he hasn't said he wants to stay, that he wants to sign an extension either.

osuceltic
08-12-2011, 04:03 PM
I get the impression from a few different comments from Votto that he's still irritated the Reds didn't call him up sooner.

lollipopcurve
08-12-2011, 04:16 PM
I get the impression from a few different comments from Votto that he's still irritated the Reds didn't call him up sooner.

I think this too. And I have the vague memory that this was reported (not the still irritated, just the irritated) as fact back when he was in AAA or shortly after his recall.

I think there's zero chance he doesn't hit free agency. If that's reality, the team has to look for a worthwhile deal for him.

kaldaniels
08-12-2011, 04:48 PM
Yeah, players just all of a sudden have a precipitous breakout at the age of 29. Happens all the time. No way PEDs were involved.

[Sarcasm off.]

Votto is also 3 years younger than Bautista. The idea that the Reds would have to throw in an additional prospect is absurd -- especially perhaps our best pitching prospect. If Toronto wants their hometown boy, they can pay a hefty price for him ... or they can wait until 2014.

Baseball players are commodities. Part of the commodity value is the player contract,age,history,etc. Right now, JoeyBats has a more favorable contract and has been a better player over the past 24 months. Votto has been more consistent over the past 4 years and is 3 years younger. Pros and cons on each side I'm sure...but I am strongly in the camp that says Toronto would be foolish to trade Baustista for Votto straight up.

lollipopcurve
08-12-2011, 04:52 PM
I am strongly in the camp that says Toronto would be foolish to trade Baustista for Votto straight up.

I'm going to wait on this one. The recent news re: the sign stealing in Toronto, plus Bautista's post-AS break slide, could change the equation. The fact that Bautista is locked up longer than Votto could be seen as a plus or a minus.

Bottom line -- more info needed on Bautista.

Mario-Rijo
08-12-2011, 05:04 PM
Baseball players are commodities. Part of the commodity value is the player contract,age,history,etc. Right now, JoeyBats has a more favorable contract and has been a better player over the past 24 months. Votto has been more consistent over the past 4 years and is 3 years younger. Pros and cons on each side I'm sure...but I am strongly in the camp that says Toronto would be foolish to trade Baustista for Votto straight up.

He's been a better player since the start of this season, which is subject to change.

dougdirt
08-12-2011, 05:05 PM
I'm going to wait on this one. The recent news re: the sign stealing in Toronto, plus Bautista's post-AS break slide, could change the equation. The fact that Bautista is locked up longer than Votto could be seen as a plus or a minus.

Bottom line -- more info needed on Bautista.

Please. If Toronto were really stealing signs, why was Bautista the only one mashing? Why are the Blue Jays home and road splits identical to the Reds splits?

As for his slide... a .230 BABIP will cause that. In the last month he has 16 walks and 19 strikeouts.

Mario-Rijo
08-12-2011, 05:15 PM
I'm going to wait on this one. The recent news re: the sign stealing in Toronto, plus Bautista's post-AS break slide, could change the equation. The fact that Bautista is locked up longer than Votto could be seen as a plus or a minus.

Bottom line -- more info needed on Bautista.

Exactly, such ridiculous numbers at home vs. the road last season (despite the small sample of this season) and the fact he's simply pulling everything which is a one dimensional approach to hitting that can be attacked. This assertion Bautista is a far better player is bunk, he may be Joeys equal and there is a reasonable chance he isn't even quite that but let's not get carried away. And if he isn't gonna continue to be .150+ points better OPS wise, then the age difference becomes significant, even if one believes Votto wants to walk which I am not sold on.

Now if they want to make a deal for a Zimmerman or Longoria plus then as much as I am not a big fan of dealing Votto I can sort of understand it. But this deal as reported is ludicrous.

kaldaniels
08-12-2011, 05:19 PM
He's been a better player since the start of this season, which is subject to change.

Who has been better for the last 24 months?

Mario-Rijo
08-12-2011, 05:19 PM
Please. If Toronto were really stealing signs, why was Bautista the only one mashing? Why are the Blue Jays home and road splits identical to the Reds splits?

As for his slide... a .230 BABIP will cause that. In the last month he has 16 walks and 19 strikeouts.

He wasn't, read the ESPN piece several Jays were posting sparkling numbers at home last season and abysmal numbers away. This season isn't yet over and now the story is out. Fight tooth and nail for it Doug maybe you'll get enough public support to get Votto dealt afterall.

I(heart)Freel
08-12-2011, 05:20 PM
Might have already been posted... but Doc's TML blog says that he spoke to a Reds official who said there was no truth to the Toronto-Votto talks.

So we are arguing a hypothetical.

Mario-Rijo
08-12-2011, 05:21 PM
Who has been better for the last 24 months?

Votto was better last year, Bautista this season. But slick way to try to make it seem like Bautista has been better for 2 years now.

kaldaniels
08-12-2011, 05:28 PM
Votto was better last year, Bautista this season. But slick way to try to make it seem like Bautista has been better for 2 years now.

Don't need to use insulting terms like "slick" Mario. Votto has been better long term, Jose in the shorter term.

Who has been better for the past 2 years? Votto?

Mario-Rijo
08-12-2011, 05:38 PM
Don't need to use insulting terms like "slick" Mario. Votto has been better long term, Jose in the shorter term.

Who has been better for the past 2 years? Votto?

I'm sorry, Bautista has been....but only because he has been much better the past 4-5 months. Again to me that is a small enough sample to negate proof he is a far better player which is kind of what you were insuating by making it a 2 year window.

Blitz Dorsey
08-12-2011, 06:22 PM
It doesn't matter that it doesn't happen all the time. It happened this time and there is ZERO evidence that something fishy is up. None. Not a single ounce.

As for the trade... why wouldn't the Reds have to add more to acquire the better player (or even if you want to argue, the equal player, which I won't agree too but I know some are saying they are) with the longer contract?

Doug, just because you say there is nothing fishy doesn't make it a fact. That's your opinion. Just like my opinion is that when a guy who has never hit more than 17 HRs in a season suddenly jumps to 50+ ... SOMETHING IS FISHY.

kaldaniels
08-12-2011, 07:26 PM
I'm sorry, Bautista has been....but only because he has been much better the past 4-5 months. Again to me that is a small enough sample to negate proof he is a far better player which is kind of what you were insuating by making it a 2 year window.

No problem. It's just I had no I'll intentions with that number that caused my sensitivity. :beerme:

Blitz Dorsey
08-12-2011, 08:09 PM
One of the funny things about this thread is how many people think Bautista is still a third baseman.

Mario-Rijo
08-12-2011, 09:11 PM
One of the funny things about this thread is how many people think Bautista is still a third baseman.

Well I for one suggested using him at 3rd because it would make him fit better. But I don't believe he still is a 3B perse' I just think he could play well enough given his bat. I mean perhaps he never was a legit 3B glove I'm not positive but I figured he has played there enough to make it work. But I could be wrong. However he still could fit in LF if not, it would just be less ideal IMO.

Guacarock
08-15-2011, 11:02 PM
I've been mulling over the Votto for Bautista trade proposal, and wanted to suggest a new wrinkle that might work out even better for the Reds while also being easier for the Blue Jays to sell to their fan base. What if instead of Bautista, we offered to deal Votto to Toronto in return for SS Yunel Escobar and SP Brandon Morrow?

Here's why the Reds could benefit. Bautista fills one of our holes -- the need for another power bat to solidify the middle of our lineup. Escobar and Morrow, however, take care of two clearly identified needs. We get a top-notch leadoff man in Escobar (currently batting first for the Jays with a .379 OBP) and we secure a solid No. 2 arm in Morrow to join Cueto and Leake in anchoring our rotation. Neither Escobar nor Morrow is in Bautista or Votto's league as superstars, but both are above-average baseball players, with Escobar rated at 4.3 WAR for this season and Morrow at 3.1 WAR. Their combined 7.4 WAR tops Bautista's 7.0 WAR, so they collectively would bring more to the table than he would by himself.

And with their relatively low salaries, they would bring us that production at a cheaper cost than Bautista, who is due to earn $14 million in 2012. Escobar currently makes $2.9 million and Morrow $2.3 million. They would be entitled to raises through arbitration in 2012, but neither is likely to top $5-$6 million apiece. We would retain both of their services for one additional year in 2013, if we so desire.

What would we do with Cozart if we acquire Escobar? I'd keep him as our backup middle infielder for 2012, making sure he got at least 250-300 at bats. Then come 2013, if he proves worthy, we can either trade Escobar for another high-trophy acquisition (say another TOR starting pitcher) or if we can't come to terms with Phillips on an extended contract, Escobar could stay at SS and Cozart could become our regular 2B. So, this switch in acquisition targets to Escobar and Morrow not only solves two issues now, it gives us a plan for how to deal with another thorny issue looming right on the horizon.

The one drawback I can see in not targeting Bautista? A certain element within our fan base would be more jaded if we dealt Votto without getting a recognizable superstar for him. Some would argue that the Front Office was again selling off our royal jewels and taking a cheapskate approach. The way to silence those complaints? Easy. Turn around and spend some hard cash to get a power bat to play LF, either via another trade or through a free-agent acquisition this coming winter. Do that and we would enter 2012 with an extremely potent lineup, capable of scoring far more runs than this year, even in Votto's absence. We would have no glaring holes, to speak of, at any position, anywhere, up and down the batting order.

How about from the Blue Jays perspective? While they would be surrendering more "value" to us in Escobar and Morrow, this deal would be much more popular with their fan base than letting go of Bautista. They keep their big bopper for the long haul and all the fireworks, while also bringing back to Canada a native son MVP in Joey Votto. They would need to find a new SP to replace Morrow, but they already have a SS in the wings in Adeiny Hechavarria, a defensive wizard, whom they are scheduled to pay $2.750 million each of the next two years.

While I would greatly miss Votto, the additions of Escobar, Morrow and Alonso (playing 1B for us) would strengthen our offense, our pitching and our bench. Take Morrow, for instance. His 3.1 WAR compares with a 1.5 WAR rating for Mike Leake, and even exceeds Johnny Cueto's 2.3 WAR (although Cueto would probably be rated between 4 and 5 had he not been injured to start the season).

The one thing all of us should remember from the days of Griffey and Dunn. Having a superstar or two on the roster is better than a poke in the eye with a stick. But it's a small consolation compared to fielding a competitive team that can steamroller its way to a division championship and possibly take home a pennant or a World Series crown. To build that kind of team, I'd sacrifice our beloved MVP a hundred times over. It might not be sexy, but if it gets us over the top, you gotta do it.

mth123
08-15-2011, 11:15 PM
I've been mulling over the Votto for Bautista trade proposal, and wanted to suggest a new wrinkle that might work out even better for the Reds while also being easier for the Blue Jays to sell to their fan base. What if instead of Bautista, we offered to deal Votto to Toronto in return for SS Yunel Escobar and SP Brandon Morrow?

Here's why the Reds could benefit. Bautista fills one of our holes -- the need for another power bat to solidify the middle of our lineup. Escobar and Morrow, however, take care of two clearly identified needs. We get a top-notch leadoff man in Escobar (currently batting first for the Jays with a .379 OBP) and we secure a solid No. 2 arm in Morrow to join Cueto and Leake in anchoring our rotation. Neither Escobar nor Morrow is in Bautista or Votto's league as superstars, but both are above-average baseball players, with Escobar rated at 4.3 WAR for this season and Morrow at 3.1 WAR. Their combined 7.4 WAR tops Bautista's 7.0 WAR, so they collectively would bring more to the table than he would by himself.

And with their relatively low salaries, they would bring us that production at a cheaper cost than Bautista, who is due to earn $14 million in 2012. Escobar currently makes $2.9 million and Morrow $2.3 million. They would be entitled to raises through arbitration in 2012, but neither is likely to top $5-$6 million apiece. We would retain both of their services for one additional year in 2013, if we so desire.

What would we do with Cozart if we acquire Escobar? I'd keep him as our backup middle infielder for 2012, making sure he got at least 250-300 at bats. Then come 2013, if he proves worthy, we can either trade Escobar for another high-trophy acquisition (say another TOR starting pitcher) or if we can't come to terms with Phillips on an extended contract, Escobar could stay at SS and Cozart could become our regular 2B. So, this switch in acquisition targets to Escobar and Morrow not only solves two issues now, it gives us a plan for how to deal with another thorny issue looming right on the horizon.

The one drawback I can see in not targeting Bautista? A certain element within our fan base would be more jaded if we dealt Votto without getting a recognizable superstar for him. Some would argue that the Front Office was again selling off our royal jewels and taking a cheapskate approach. The way to silence those complaints? Easy. Turn around and spend some hard cash to get a power bat to play LF, either via another trade or through a free-agent acquisition this coming winter. Do that and we would enter 2012 with an extremely potent lineup, capable of scoring far more runs than this year, even in Votto's absence. We would have no glaring holes, to speak of, at any position, anywhere, up and down the batting order.

How about from the Blue Jays perspective? While they would be surrendering more "value" to us in Escobar and Morrow, this deal would be much more popular with their fan base than letting go of Bautista. They keep their big bopper for the long haul and all the fireworks, while also bringing back to Canada a native son MVP in Joey Votto. They would need to find a new SP to replace Morrow, but they already have a SS in the wings in Adeiny Hechavarria, a defensive wizard, whom they are scheduled to pay $2.750 million each of the next two years.

While I would greatly miss Votto, the additions of Escobar, Morrow and Alonso (playing 1B for us) would strengthen our offense, our pitching and our bench. Take Morrow, for instance. His 3.1 WAR compares with a 1.5 WAR rating for Mike Leake, and even exceeds Johnny Cueto's 2.3 WAR (although Cueto would probably be rated between 4 and 5 had he not been injured to start the season).

The one thing all of us should remember from the days of Griffey and Dunn. Having a superstar or two on the roster is better than a poke in the eye with a stick. But it's a small consolation compared to fielding a competitive team that can steamroller its way to a division championship and possibly take home a pennant or a World Series crown. To build that kind of team, I'd sacrifice our beloved MVP a hundred times over. It might not be sexy, but if it gets us over the top, you gotta do it.

I'm not a fan of dealing Votto, but am beginning to wonder if its inevitable. My version of a deal with the Jays would be Votto and Volquez for Ricky Romero and Adam Lind (assuming Lind could go back to LF).

Guacarock
08-15-2011, 11:35 PM
I'm not a fan of dealing Votto, but am beginning to wonder if its inevitable. My version of a deal with the Jays would be Votto and Volquez for Ricky Romero and Adam Lind (assuming Lind could go back to LF).

That's another option, and it's an intriguing one as well. Why I went with Escobar-Morrow instead of Romero-Lind?

Romero is Toronto's ace, and they have already signed him through 2013 with an option for 2014. With that kind of emotional and strategic investment tied to him, I'm not sure we could pry him loose. Morrow seems more gettable.

Toronto would surrender Lind, who reminds me of Votto-lite. He's a lefty with line drive power, but much more prone than Joey to up-and-down streaks at the plate. Also, while Lind has historically played a lot of LF and could be plugged out there, he's mostly been used as a DH and 1B the past two years, suggesting some defensive liabilities.

All things considered, I'd rather target Escobar as he plays a premium position (SS) quite well, can lead-off quite well, and could fetch us another SP if we decide to flip him down the road, while Lind wouldn't be as likely to retain that same value.

Reds/Flyers Fan
08-15-2011, 11:55 PM
That's another option, and it's an intriguing one as well. Why I went with Escobar-Morrow instead of Romero-Lind?

Romero is Toronto's ace, and they have already signed him through 2013 with an option for 2014. With that kind of emotional and strategic investment tied to him, I'm not sure we could pry him loose. Morrow seems more gettable.

Toronto would surrender Lind, who reminds me of Votto-lite. He's a lefty with line drive power, but much more prone than Joey to up-and-down streaks at the plate. Also, while Lind has historically played a lot of LF and could be plugged out there, he's mostly been used as a DH and 1B the past two years, suggesting some defensive liabilities.

All things considered, I'd rather target Escobar as he plays a premium position (SS) quite well, can lead-off quite well, and could fetch us another SP if we decide to flip him down the road, while Lind wouldn't be as likely to retain that same value.

And Joey Votto is our best player - by far - a two-time All-Star who's signed cheaply for the next two years and, oh yea, a National League MVP to boot. Why on earth would we have to settle? Especially when we would be sending the Blue Jays a Toronto native who would do absolute wonders for that sleepy, disinterested fan base. Yet we're now hoping they break down and consider sending us Morrow and Lind???

Sorry. Not nearly enough. Not by a long shot.

Trade Votto for anything less than a superstar (see: Bautista, Jose; Kemp, Matt) and this franchise will have some serious explaining to do - to the fans that remain.

Guacarock
08-16-2011, 12:38 AM
You're right -- we have Joey signed for two more years. But if you want to argue that his pending 2013 salary of $19 million is cheap, then how would you explain that in the context of Junior (who topped out at $12.5 million with the Reds) or Dunn (who reached his max at $13 million)?

Again, I'll repeat what I said. Having a superstar on your roster is better than a poke in the eye with a stick. But it is not a consolation for fielding a superior and balanced team that can beat you different nights different ways -- offense, defense, pitching -- and compete for a post-season berth year-in and year-out.

Of all the franchises out there, the Blue Jays have the most reason to covet Votto and overpay to acquire him. Let's make it easy for them to do so, but also make sure we structure any deal so that we're going to reap the benefits, not just over the short haul but for the long-term.

Doesn't matter to me if they get Votto and retain Romero and Bautista. All that matters is if we get a lift and blow away the Cards, Brewers and the rest of the NL Central the following year with the right kind of foundation to rebuild a dynasty.

Mario-Rijo
08-16-2011, 06:21 AM
You're right -- we have Joey signed for two more years. But if you want to argue that his pending 2013 salary of $19 million is cheap, then how would you explain that in the context of Junior (who topped out at $12.5 million with the Reds) or Dunn (who reached his max at $13 million)?

Again, I'll repeat what I said. Having a superstar on your roster is better than a poke in the eye with a stick. But it is not a consolation for fielding a superior and balanced team that can beat you different nights different ways -- offense, defense, pitching -- and compete for a post-season berth year-in and year-out.

Of all the franchises out there, the Blue Jays have the most reason to covet Votto and overpay to acquire him. Let's make it easy for them to do so, but also make sure we structure any deal so that we're going to reap the benefits, not just over the short haul but for the long-term.

Doesn't matter to me if they get Votto and retain Romero and Bautista. All that matters is if we get a lift and blow away the Cards, Brewers and the rest of the NL Central the following year with the right kind of foundation to rebuild a dynasty.

While I see what you are driving at I have come to appreciate having an MVP caliber bat in the lineup. It just changes everything. So while I don't agree that a Votto for Bautista deal is a good one for us it's alot more palatable than getting 2 good but still much lesser players. Heck I'd prefer they not trade him at all and I believe it's doable. All this chatter about it sways public opinion away from that ideal scenario and basically tells the club it's ok to go ahead and pursue trading away our best player. We should be adding right now and concerning ourselves with that potential issue later down the road after we have given ourselves a shot at winning while he is here.

Make a deal for Jose Bautista, we have the chips to do it without coughing up Votto. And we can afford Bautista & Votto over the next 2 seasons if we rearrange some things (heck maybe even if we don't do any rearranging). Having Votto, Bautista & Bruce for the next 2 seasons gives us a really legitimate shot at getting to a World Series and if we get to a World Series we also have enough leverage to retain Votto.

We have an MVP candidate people and we have a good group of players around him, lets go try to win this thing while we have the chance!

Boss-Hog
08-16-2011, 06:43 AM
The whole Bautista using PEDs scenario essentially got blown to bits in the Jose Bautista: Clean or PED User? thread. If anyone would like to continue discussing that topic maybe they could do it in that thread instead of hijacking this one?
:thumbup:

redsfandan
08-16-2011, 08:16 AM
I've been mulling over the Votto for Bautista trade proposal, and wanted to suggest a new wrinkle that might work out even better for the Reds while also being easier for the Blue Jays to sell to their fan base. What if instead of Bautista, we offered to deal Votto to Toronto in return for SS Yunel Escobar and SP Brandon Morrow?

I'd pass. If the Reds didn't get a superstar (like Bautista) I'd prefer something like Morrow, Rasmus, and a prospect.



What would we do with Cozart if we acquire Escobar? I'd keep him as our backup middle infielder for 2012, making sure he got at least 250-300 at bats. Then come 2013, if he proves worthy, we can either trade Escobar for another high-trophy acquisition (say another TOR starting pitcher) or if we can't come to terms with Phillips on an extended contract, Escobar could stay at SS and Cozart could become our regular 2B. So, this switch in acquisition targets to Escobar and Morrow not only solves two issues now, it gives us a plan for how to deal with another thorny issue looming right on the horizon.

I'd like the Reds to talk to the team that would give up a TOR starting pitcher for Escobar.

osuceltic
08-30-2011, 01:41 PM
Anyone want to revisit this discussion? That performance gap is shrinking as Votto surges and Bautista slumps (hmmm ... right after that sign-stealing story ... ). Anyone? Anyone?

lollipopcurve
08-30-2011, 01:53 PM
Anyone want to revisit this discussion? That performance gap is shrinking as Votto surges and Bautista slumps (hmmm ... right after that sign-stealing story ... ). Anyone? Anyone?

Bautista has heated back up. Definitely still open to the idea of a Votto-Bautista deal. Let the year play out, and then reassess. Bautista is a great positional fit for the Reds, and the big RH bat between Bruce and Alonso is also a great fit. He's locked up for I think 4 more years, so that would give the Reds a solid middle-of-the-order for a long time.

I think you underestimate the sapping effect that the impending free agency of your team's superstar can have. And unless Votto agrees to an extension, that's what the Reds are looking at come 2013.

Nasty_Boy
08-30-2011, 02:12 PM
Trade for Bautista and the "Man in White"!

Caveat Emperor
08-30-2011, 02:35 PM
I think you underestimate the sapping effect that the impending free agency of your team's superstar can have. And unless Votto agrees to an extension, that's what the Reds are looking at come 2013.

Every interview "So, have the Reds contacted you about a deal?" or "Is this the last time you'll do X as a member of the Reds?" or "Hey, I hear New York is lovely this time of year..."

Captain Hook
08-30-2011, 02:47 PM
Bautista has heated back up. Definitely still open to the idea of a Votto-Bautista deal. Let the year play out, and then reassess. Bautista is a great positional fit for the Reds, and the big RH bat between Bruce and Alonso is also a great fit. He's locked up for I think 4 more years, so that would give the Reds a solid middle-of-the-order for a long time.

I think you underestimate the sapping effect that the impending free agency of your team's superstar can have. And unless Votto agrees to an extension, that's what the Reds are looking at come 2013.

I think the Brewers have handled that situation well.

I don't want to seem too short sighted but the Reds have Joey locked up for two more years.I think everyone seems too anxious as far as dealing with his"impending free agency"goes.I'm not saying that if the teams future as well as current roster could be dramatically improved you shouldn't consider trading Votto.Personally I don't do this deal but I understan why some would.On paper the Reds could be potentially be a better team but what's on paper doesn't always translate to more wins.Joey has already led the Reds to one division title and I do believe he's a leader and can do it again.I'm not so sure about Bautista.

dougdirt
08-30-2011, 03:30 PM
Anyone want to revisit this discussion? That performance gap is shrinking as Votto surges and Bautista slumps (hmmm ... right after that sign-stealing story ... ). Anyone? Anyone?

Last 14 days: 1.142 OPS
Last 28 days: .997 OPS
Season: 1.098 OPS

Yeah, I want to revisit it. Yeah, I still want to make it happen. Bautista is simply better than Votto is. That isn't a knock on Votto. Bautista is just that good.

BRM
08-30-2011, 04:16 PM
When did Bautista slump?

dougdirt
08-30-2011, 04:26 PM
When did Bautista slump?

June. He had an .835 OPS. Every month outside of June has been 1.029 or higher.

BRM
08-30-2011, 04:28 PM
June. He had an .835 OPS. Every month outside of June has been 1.029 or higher.

I did see the down month in June. I got the impression it was recent since "Bautista slumps" was posted today.

dougdirt
08-30-2011, 04:33 PM
I did see the down month in June. I got the impression it was recent since "Bautista slumps" was posted today.

1.029 is his second worst month of the season, which is happening this month, so I guess that's a slump?

BRM
08-30-2011, 04:44 PM
1.029 is his second worst month of the season, which is happening this month, so I guess that's a slump?

Give me a 1.029 OPS "slump" all day, every day.

Griffey012
08-30-2011, 05:44 PM
(Bautista in LF for 4 years 57 million + Alonso at 1B for 5 years for say 25 million over the life of the contract) > (Joey Votto at 1b for 2 years at 26.5 million + whoever we have or could get to fill Left Field for probably no more than 6-8 million a year.)

I am not sure how anyone could be opposed to swapping Votto plus a prospect or two for Bautista, unless of course you don't truly want the Reds to field the best possible team.

CTA513
08-30-2011, 06:08 PM
(Bautista in LF for 4 years 57 million + Alonso at 1B for 5 years for say 25 million over the life of the contract) > (Joey Votto at 1b for 2 years at 26.5 million + whoever we have or could get to fill Left Field for probably no more than 6-8 million a year.)

I am not sure how anyone could be opposed to swapping Votto plus a prospect or two for Bautista, unless of course you don't truly want the Reds to field the best possible team.

Votto plus a prospect or two? unless they are scrub prospects then I wouldn't even consider it.

dougdirt
08-30-2011, 06:28 PM
Votto plus a prospect or two? unless they are scrub prospects then I wouldn't even consider it.

Bautista will be here longer, and for cheaper, plus fill a major hole on the team for you (be it left field or his old position of third base). What makes that unconsiderable?

Griffey012
08-30-2011, 07:11 PM
Votto plus a prospect or two? unless they are scrub prospects then I wouldn't even consider it.

Bautista is signed at a reasonable price for 4 years. Votto is signed for 2, don't think Votto won't get 20+ once he hits the FA market. That is why the prospects come into play.

CTA513
08-30-2011, 07:22 PM
Bautista will also be 31 in October and just started to hit last season.

Patrick Bateman
08-30-2011, 07:29 PM
Bautista will also be 31 in October and just started to hit last season.

The discussion should be mainly tailored around the next 2 seasons.
If the Reds are to keep Votto for longer it will likley take market calibre rates.

True, Bautista is older, however, is unlikely to drop off significantly during his age 31 and 32/33 seasons. Just within the first two years it should at minimum be a push, with Bautista likely more valuable.

Thereafter, while Votto is being paid market rates, Bautista is likely going to continue providing surplus value even if it is to a lower extent then he is performing now. Age is not a huge concern in this analysis as much as it is controllable years. If Votto were signed to an affordable 4 year contract, then I would likely select Votto because of the age advantage, howver, that is likely not an option.

Griffey012
08-30-2011, 07:33 PM
Bautista will also be 31 in October and just started to hit last season.

So he would be 34 by the end of his contract. Not to old by any means. He has put up basically 2 straight season of 1.000+ OPS (.995 last season).

Do you not think the team would be better off with Bautista in LF and Alonso at 1st than what we saw this season? Who are you thinking of in terms of getting to fill the left field void if he hang onto Votto at 1st that would be feasible for this team to afford and acquire?

Redhook
08-30-2011, 08:32 PM
So he would be 34 by the end of his contract. Not to old by any means. He has put up basically 2 straight season of 1.000+ OPS (.995 last season).

Do you not think the team would be better off with Bautista in LF and Alonso at 1st than what we saw this season? Who are you thinking of in terms of getting to fill the left field void if he hang onto Votto at 1st that would be feasible for this team to afford and acquire?

Yep. Alonso, Bautista, Bruce as the 3-5 would be pretty strong.

mth123
08-30-2011, 08:55 PM
I'm against dealing Votto in general, but this type of deal for one of a handful of players would be a no brainer for the Reds to do. The problem is that the Jays would probaby want Cueto too.

Votto to the Jays isn't the ideal match most think it is. I doubt the Jays would deal Bautista for Joey without a substantial sweetener. I'm also guessing they wouldn't deal Ricky Romero straight up for Votto. I'm not really interested in Votto for two or three slightly above average guys. I might consider Votto for Brett Cecil or Brandon Morrow and Brett Lawrie if I were the Reds though I'm not sure. Not sure there is another deal that I'd make with the Jays for Joey.

nate
08-30-2011, 09:12 PM
Anyone want to revisit this discussion? That performance gap is shrinking as Votto surges and Bautista slumps (hmmm ... right after that sign-stealing story ... ). Anyone? Anyone?

For reference:



Split PA BA OBP SLG OPS
2011 Totals 534 .312 .453 .645 1.098
Last 7 days 25 .250 .400 .650 1.050
Last 14 days 46 .286 .457 .686 1.142
Last 28 days 101 .260 .426 .571 .997
Last 365days 666 .296 .435 .640 1.075


Let me see if I'm getting this right.

Bautista's "slumping" over the last two weeks (OPS 1.142 during that time,) should be a catalyst for reconsideration of a previous opinion?

AtomicDumpling
08-30-2011, 09:37 PM
For reference:



Split PA BA OBP SLG OPS
2011 Totals 534 .312 .453 .645 1.098
Last 7 days 25 .250 .400 .650 1.050
Last 14 days 46 .286 .457 .686 1.142
Last 28 days 101 .260 .426 .571 .997
Last 365days 666 .296 .435 .640 1.075


Let me see if I'm getting this right.

Bautista's "slumping" over the last two weeks (OPS 1.142 during that time,) should be a catalyst for reconsideration of a previous opinion?

If someone is looking at batting average they might think he is slumping, but if they are looking at the meaningful stats they will realize he is still humming along nicely.

Blitz Dorsey
08-30-2011, 11:16 PM
Bautista will also be 31 in October and just started to hit last season.

Kind of funny how all the Bautista-backers gloss over those facts. Two pretty important facts no less:

1. Bautista is on the wrong side of 30. This would be a completely different discussion if he were, say, 27.

2. His first good season (although it was great not good) came in 2010 at the age of 29. I guess he was just getting unlucky all those years before that. :confused:

Man, I bet the Brewers wish they would have traded Prince Fielder when he didn't want to sign a LTC with them. It must suck being a Brewer fan this season. Who cares about all the winning; the business side of things must have the fans so distracted they can't even enjoy it. They know there is a chance they might lose Fielder after this season. I bet no one in Milwaukee even watches the playoffs.

The Reds have TWO FULL YEARS LEFT of Joey Votto. Quit trying to run him out of town ... especially for a 30-year-old who is probably on the juice.

Caveat Emperor
08-31-2011, 12:00 AM
You can bet every dollar you own the Brewer would've traded Fielder in a second if they could've brought back a return like Jose Bautista.

And, amusingly, they'd probably be in the exact same spot had they done it -- except they'd also be covered for the next 4 years as opposed to needing to go out and find a bat this offseason to replace Fielder.

Oh, and there's exactly as much evidence Jose is on the juice as there is Joey Votto himself is on the juice -- which is to say, none whatsoever.

dougdirt
08-31-2011, 12:11 AM
You can bet every dollar you own the Brewer would've traded Fielder in a second if they could've brought back a return like Jose Bautista.

And, amusingly, they'd probably be in the exact same spot had they done it -- except they'd also be covered for the next 4 years as opposed to needing to go out and find a bat this offseason to replace Fielder.

Oh, and there's exactly as much evidence Jose is on the juice as there is Joey Votto himself is on the juice -- which is to say, none whatsoever.

Stop making rational points. They don't do much to further the conversation. It is clear that some wouldn't trade Joey Votto for Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera even if the Tigers covered the salary difference.

reds44
08-31-2011, 12:18 AM
You can bet every dollar you own the Brewer would've traded Fielder in a second if they could've brought back a return like Jose Bautista.

And, amusingly, they'd probably be in the exact same spot had they done it -- except they'd also be covered for the next 4 years as opposed to needing to go out and find a bat this offseason to replace Fielder.

Oh, and there's exactly as much evidence Jose is on the juice as there is Joey Votto himself is on the juice -- which is to say, none whatsoever.
I didn't realize Votto was a free agent after this year.

Or next year for that matter.

Caveat Emperor
08-31-2011, 12:22 AM
I didn't realize Votto was a free agent after this year.

Or next year for that matter.

The question was regarding Fielder, not Votto.

Having said that, if you can effectively double the length of time you control a 1.000 OPS bat and the dollars make sense, why wouldn't you do it every time?

reds44
08-31-2011, 12:55 AM
The question was regarding Fielder, not Votto.

Having said that, if you can effectively double the length of time you control a 1.000 OPS bat and the dollars make sense, why wouldn't you do it every time?
Because Bautista on the wrong side of 30 and doesn't have the best track record of success.

Hey this is a new discussion.

dougdirt
08-31-2011, 01:05 AM
Because Bautista on the wrong side of 30 and doesn't have the best track record of success.

Hey this is a new discussion.

What is more likely:

Jose Bautista remains one of the best hitters in baseball over the next two season?

Or

Jose Bautista goes back to a guy who doesn't pull the ball every chance he gets and returns to pre August 2009 Jose Bautista?

I would be willing to bet that the guys last 1100 PA's are a lot more likely to be what we get than what came prior to 2 1/2 years ago when he made changes to his swing.

reds44
08-31-2011, 01:16 AM
What is more likely:

Jose Bautista remains one of the best hitters in baseball over the next two season?

Or

Jose Bautista goes back to a guy who doesn't pull the ball every chance he gets and returns to pre August 2009 Jose Bautista?

I would be willing to bet that the guys last 1100 PA's are a lot more likely to be what we get than what came prior to 2 1/2 years ago when he made changes to his swing.
No. That's not what the question is.

It's will he stay the same guy in 2014 and beyond when the Reds (theoretically) won't have Votto anymore.

KronoRed
08-31-2011, 01:25 AM
Short of a crystal ball telling them when Bautista will be falling off the planet I don't see why the Blue Jays would make a 1-1 trade in the first place.

Blitz Dorsey
08-31-2011, 01:37 AM
Stop making rational points. They don't do much to further the conversation. It is clear that some wouldn't trade Joey Votto for Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera even if the Tigers covered the salary difference.

Pretty low-rent on your part Doug and everyone expects more. You know everyone on here would do that trade. I know you were being sarcastic, but c'mon. It's like you're making fun of the people that don't agree with you that it's a "no-brainer" to trade Votto (and prospects) for Bautista. Guess what, not only Reds fans would think that was a bad deal for the Reds.

It's clear you have some serious man-love going on for Bautista. However, it's like you take it personally that many others don't agree with you. If you don't agree that there are some serious red flags when it comes to Bautista, that's fine. We'll all pull a Ron Burgundy (while explaining the origin of "San Diego") and agree to disagree.

And to be clear, I think Jose Bautista is an excellent player. I also think he's juicing. These are all opinions -- let's try and be respectful of that. If we start saying "You don't have any evidence" and I counter with "He's definitely on the juice no doubt about it" we're just speaking in absolutes (and out of our rear ends). The truth of the matter is the Reds have two full years left of Joey Votto. If the Blue Jays want their hometown boy that bad, they can back the truck up for him in terms of players they will give to the Reds. Or, they can wait until 2014.

The Brewers are sure glad they didn't trade Prince Fielder. And I never said the Brewers wouldn't have traded Fielder for Bautista. I was just pointing out that teams from cities like Milwaukee and Cincinnati don't have to panic and trade away a great player just because there is a good chance he won't sign a LTC with that team. Especially when said player has two full years left on his deal.

Maybe we should just enjoy the 2012 and 2013 seasons. They might end up being extremely successful if Walt is able to have a good offseason for a change. (huge IF)

dougdirt
08-31-2011, 01:49 AM
No. That's not what the question is.

It's will he stay the same guy in 2014 and beyond when the Reds (theoretically) won't have Votto anymore.

No, it isn't. The question is, what do you expect Bautista to perform like for 2012 and 2013? Then, what about 2014 and 2015 where you still control him while Votto has been long gone.

If the trade proposal were for Bautista for only 2012 and 2013, the Reds shouldn't have to kick in a legit prospect. But you would also be getting him for two seasons beyond that at what is a reasonable price.

No one thinks he will be the same guy in 2014/2015 as he is now. But is he going to still be good? My guess says: Absolutely. So we are really sitting here wondering: For the next two seasons, is it reasonable to expect Votto and Bautista to be comparable players? Anyone who says no, I honestly don't know what you are looking at. Since the answer to the question is yes, they are reasonably expected to be comparable players, why wouldn't you trade two years of one guy for four years of the other?

dougdirt
08-31-2011, 01:52 AM
Pretty low-rent on your part Doug and everyone expects more. You know everyone on here would do that trade. I know you were being sarcastic, but c'mon. It's like you're making fun of the people that don't agree with you that it's a "no-brainer" to trade Votto (and prospects) for Bautista. Guess what, not only Reds fans would think that was a bad deal for the Reds.

It's clear you have some serious man-love going on for Bautista. However, it's like you take it personally that many others don't agree with you. If you don't agree that there are some serious red flags when it comes to Bautista, that's fine. We'll all pull a Ron Burgundy (while explaining the origin of "San Diego") and agree to disagree.

And to be clear, I think Jose Bautista is an excellent player. I also think he's juicing. These are all opinions -- let's try and be respectful of that. If we start saying "You don't have any evidence" and I counter with "He's definitely on the juice no doubt about it" we're just speaking in absolutes (and out of our rear ends). The truth of the matter is the Reds have two full years left of Joey Votto. If the Blue Jays want their hometown boy that bad, they can back the truck up for him in terms of players they will give to the Reds. Or, they can wait until 2014.


No. Ron Burgandy was absolutely wrong on the meaning of San Diego. It wasn't an opinion. It was a fact. He was wrong.

And no, the opinion that Jose Bautista is an excellent player isn't an opinion. That is a fact in any shape you want to slice it.

And the truth of the matter is, it seems that you would rather just keep the guy you like rather than make the Reds better. In no circumstance does it make sense to want to keep Votto for 2012/2013 instead of Bautista for 2012-2015. None. Well except for that part where you think that Jose Bautista has some magical steroid/HGH supplier who is only supplying him with the best stuff the world has ever seen and doesn't want anyone else to get their hands on it.

Blitz Dorsey
08-31-2011, 02:02 AM
No. Ron Burgandy was absolutely wrong on the meaning of San Diego. It wasn't an opinion. It was a fact. He was wrong.

And no, the opinion that Jose Bautista is an excellent player isn't an opinion. That is a fact in any shape you want to slice it.

And the truth of the matter is, it seems that you would rather just keep the guy you like rather than make the Reds better. In no circumstance does it make sense to want to keep Votto for 2012/2013 instead of Bautista for 2012-2015. None. Well except for that part where you think that Jose Bautista has some magical steroid/HGH supplier who is only supplying him with the best stuff the world has ever seen and doesn't want anyone else to get their hands on it.

So you're telling me San Diego does NOT mean "A Whale's Vagina"? Again, agree to disagree. You can't believe anything that comes out of Veronica Corningstone's mouth.

Why do you think I "like" Votto? This is not about me being a fanboy. I actually think Votto is probably kind of a jerk, but I don't care because he can flat rake a baseball and I have zero suspicions that he's on the juice. I'm not worried about Votto "coming back to earth" the next couple years because I think this is who Joey Votto is. He's naturally this good and he's only 27.

As for Bautista, the "magic" isn't that he has an HGH supplier. There are thousands of athletes illegally using PEDs so Bautista would be far from unique in that respect. However, Doug, where Bautista was extremely unique was when he went from a below-average player to one of the elite players in the game suddenly at the age of 29. That's either "magic" or he's on the juice IMO.

dougdirt
08-31-2011, 02:21 AM
So you're telling me San Diego does NOT mean "A Whale's Vagina"? Again, agree to disagree. You can't believe anything that comes out of Veronica Corningstone's mouth.

Why do you think I "like" Votto? This is not about me being a fanboy. I actually think Votto is probably kind of a jerk, but I don't care because he can flat rake a baseball and I have zero suspicions that he's on the juice. I'm not worried about Votto "coming back to earth" the next couple years because I think this is who Joey Votto is. He's naturally this good and he's only 27.

As for Bautista, the "magic" isn't that he has an HGH supplier. There are thousands of athletes illegally using PEDs so Bautista would be far from unique in that respect. However, Doug, where Bautista was extremely unique was when he went from a below-average player to one of the elite players in the game suddenly at the age of 29. That's either "magic" or he's on the juice IMO.

Why then is whatever Bautista supposedly getting so much better than whatever those other thousands of athletes also supposedly getting? Why aren't tons of guys turning into superstars? Your theory doesn't add up. You say he is just one of thousands, but that he is the only one benefitting in such ways actually suggests that he isn't using.

Ron Madden
08-31-2011, 04:09 AM
No. Ron Burgandy was absolutely wrong on the meaning of San Diego. It wasn't an opinion. It was a fact. He was wrong.

And no, the opinion that Jose Bautista is an excellent player isn't an opinion. That is a fact in any shape you want to slice it.

And the truth of the matter is, it seems that you would rather just keep the guy you like rather than make the Reds better. In no circumstance does it make sense to want to keep Votto for 2012/2013 instead of Bautista for 2012-2015. None. Well except for that part where you think that Jose Bautista has some magical steroid/HGH supplier who is only supplying him with the best stuff the world has ever seen and doesn't want anyone else to get their hands on it.


:thumbup:

Griffey012
08-31-2011, 07:13 AM
What seems to be lost in the whole Votto/Bautista argument here is that we still have a GAPING hole in left field. A huge reason to make this trade is to fill the gaping hole, and slide in our in house option at 1st base who is currently being paraded around in LF and 3b to get his bat in the lineup.

Keeping Votto means we have to trade that character and hope we are able to get a legit player to plug into LF, making this trade gives us a legit player at both positions.

mth123
08-31-2011, 07:16 AM
What seems to be lost in the whole Votto/Bautista argument here is that we still have a GAPING hole in left field. A huge reason to make this trade is to fill the gaping hole, and slide in our in house option at 1st base who is currently being paraded around in LF and 3b to get his bat in the lineup.

Keeping Votto means we have to trade that character and hope we are able to get a legit player to plug into LF, making this trade gives us a legit player at both positions.

Sure, But that isn't a reason for Toronto to do it without significant added parts from the Reds. The Jays also have a decent bat at 1B.

Blitz Dorsey
08-31-2011, 10:27 AM
You can bet every dollar you own the Brewer would've traded Fielder in a second if they could've brought back a return like Jose Bautista.

And, amusingly, they'd probably be in the exact same spot had they done it -- except they'd also be covered for the next 4 years as opposed to needing to go out and find a bat this offseason to replace Fielder.

Oh, and there's exactly as much evidence Jose is on the juice as there is Joey Votto himself is on the juice -- which is to say, none whatsoever.

You probably know this by now, but the discussion about the Bautista/PED stuff has been moved to the other thread. I find it a very-interesting discussion. Let's try not to bash other people for their opinions though. (Not saying you were. But it seems others were.)

cincrazy
08-31-2011, 10:42 AM
I would trade Votto for Bautista, as I've said before. But I would NOT trade Votto and a legit/elite prospect for Bautista. No way. If you wanna do straight up, fine, I can live with that, because I think our chance's of keeping Votto beyond 2013 are nil, and I think Bautista is that good, and may be even a little better in GABP. But I throw in no extra players, that's a deal breaker for me unless they're sending back parts also.

lollipopcurve
08-31-2011, 11:18 AM
I would trade Votto for Bautista, as I've said before. But I would NOT trade Votto and a legit/elite prospect for Bautista. No way. If you wanna do straight up, fine, I can live with that, because I think our chance's of keeping Votto beyond 2013 are nil, and I think Bautista is that good, and may be even a little better in GABP. But I throw in no extra players, that's a deal breaker for me unless they're sending back parts also.

I don't know. The rumor was that the Jays were looking at Corcino. If it's me, I go ahead and throw him in, if the Jays insist, but draw the line there (maybe ask for a middling prospect back). Corcino's in low A ball, so there's still a long way to go for him, and plenty of time for the team to develop its starters of the future.

dougdirt
08-31-2011, 09:16 PM
I would trade Votto for Bautista, as I've said before. But I would NOT trade Votto and a legit/elite prospect for Bautista. No way. If you wanna do straight up, fine, I can live with that, because I think our chance's of keeping Votto beyond 2013 are nil, and I think Bautista is that good, and may be even a little better in GABP. But I throw in no extra players, that's a deal breaker for me unless they're sending back parts also.

So you think that Bautista is that good and may be better in GABP, but wouldn't give up a prospect for two extra years of him?

kaldaniels
08-31-2011, 10:09 PM
So you think that Bautista is that good and may be better in GABP, but wouldn't give up a prospect for two extra years of him?

Exactly. That is saying that you consider Votto/Bautista trade "equals". I really struggle to see how one makes that argument.

Blitz Dorsey
08-31-2011, 11:08 PM
I'm surprised some of you guys are sold on Bautista after just two years. Especially at his age. No question if he kept up that kind of production the next two years, it would be a no-brainer to trade him for Votto, because Bautista's 2010-11 production is at least as good as you're ever going to get out of Votto and likely better ... and because Bautista is signed for two years beyond that at a very-reasonable rate for a star.

However, that is one hell of a big assumption to make. I very much question the idea that Jose Bautista will match his 2010-11 production or even close in 2012-13. On the other hand, I'm very confident Joey Votto will produce in 2012-13 just as well as he produced in 2010-11. And perhaps Votto will get better since he's only 27 (soon to be 28).

With Bautista's age, the dropoff is coming soon. Also, he was a below-average MLB player from the ages of 24-28. [And I won't even mention the other red flag that some of us have when it comes to Bautista.] Add it all up, and I would bet the farm that Bautista will experience a precipitous dropoff over the next two years, while Votto will at least maintain his production and perhaps even improve it.

cincrazy
08-31-2011, 11:18 PM
So you think that Bautista is that good and may be better in GABP, but wouldn't give up a prospect for two extra years of him?

I wouldn't. He's that good NOW, but I don't think he'll sustain this level of great. And with the projected fall-off, AND with the fact that we're giving up our MVP and most popular player since Barry Larkin, there's no way I'd give them a top prospect.

I love the idea of sticking him in our lineup and putting Alonso at first. And I love the idea of having him two more years than we'd get Votto. But I wouldn't give up top tier minor league talent to make it happen. Would I give up someone? That's conceivable. Maybe an above average guy, but nobody with a trace of true "impact" talent.

kaldaniels
09-01-2011, 12:33 AM
I'm surprised some of you guys are sold on Bautista after just two years. Especially at his age. No question if he kept up that kind of production the next two years, it would be a no-brainer to trade him for Votto, because Bautista's 2010-11 production is at least as good as you're ever going to get out of Votto and likely better ... and because Bautista is signed for two years beyond that at a very-reasonable rate for a star.

However, that is one hell of a big assumption to make. I very much question the idea that Jose Bautista will match his 2010-11 production or even close in 2012-13. On the other hand, I'm very confident Joey Votto will produce in 2012-13 just as well as he produced in 2010-11. And perhaps Votto will get better since he's only 27 (soon to be 28).

With Bautista's age, the dropoff is coming soon. Also, he was a below-average MLB player from the ages of 24-28. [And I won't even mention the other red flag that some of us have when it comes to Bautista.] Add it all up, and I would bet the farm that Bautista will experience a precipitous dropoff over the next two years, while Votto will at least maintain his production and perhaps even improve it.

Even if he drops off 25 percent WAR-wise, his contract is still a bargain. I'll take 4 years of that please. And you are right, I am banking on JoeyBats not reverting to his 2008 self. Nothing is a sure thing though...

dougdirt
09-01-2011, 01:19 AM
I wouldn't. He's that good NOW, but I don't think he'll sustain this level of great. And with the projected fall-off, AND with the fact that we're giving up our MVP and most popular player since Barry Larkin, there's no way I'd give them a top prospect.

I love the idea of sticking him in our lineup and putting Alonso at first. And I love the idea of having him two more years than we'd get Votto. But I wouldn't give up top tier minor league talent to make it happen. Would I give up someone? That's conceivable. Maybe an above average guy, but nobody with a trace of true "impact" talent.

Brandon Phillips is more popular than Joey Votto is right now. And frankly, I don't think a GM should care about what fans think in terms of making the right deals for the franchise.

So two years of Jose Bautista, even if he falls into the 850-900 OPS range those final two seasons, isn't worth a true prospect? I think that every GM in baseball would give up one true prospect, especially if it is someone at the Low A level (which is what has been proposed with Corcino) for two years of a guy at that level.

redsfandan
09-01-2011, 05:45 AM
Sure, But that isn't a reason for Toronto to do it without significant added parts from the Reds. The Jays also have a decent bat at 1B.

True, but Lind has more experience in left field than 1st base. There's no reason why they wouldn't move Lind back to left to make room for Votto at 1st.

Toronto getting Votto would probably be like the Reds getting Youkilis in his prime. I think the home crowd would be pretty happy especially if their gm makes other moves that make sense.

mth123
09-01-2011, 06:23 AM
True, but Lind has more experience in left field than 1st base. There's no reason why they wouldn't move Lind back to left to make room for Votto at 1st.

Toronto getting Votto would probably be like the Reds getting Youkilis in his prime. I think the home crowd would be pretty happy especially if their gm makes other moves that make sense.

A couple of things. Lind was moved out of LF and to 1B for a reason. He's a LF like Alonso is a LF.

I get the local boy angle, but its way overblown IMO (almost as much as the catcher who speaks spanish is overblown). I wouldn't be all that happy if we dealt a more productive player for Youkilis simply to get that local boy factor.

I love Votto. He's better at the plate than most players I've seen here including most of the HOF on the BRM. Morgan and Bench were better players, but not better hitters. Rose really did have that extra something that many players are credited for but few have, but 4200+ hits and all, he wasn't the hitter that Joey is. For a short time, Kevin Mitchell was a bat on par with Joey, but he was too unreliable to be in Joey's class as a valuable player. George Foster from 76 through 81 or so, might have been on par with Joey, but even he didn't lead the league in both OBP and Slugging. I think pretty highly of Joey. All that said, Bautista is a better player who can fill positions that are more difficult to fill than what Votto can do. If I were a Jays fan and he was dealt for Votto straight up, I'd be pretty unhappy local boy or no. IMO, even Votto and Corcino isn't enough. If I were the Jays, I'd ask for Votto and Cueto and probably settle for no less than Votto, Bailey and Corcino.

Griffey012
09-01-2011, 07:30 AM
Brandon Phillips is more popular than Joey Votto is right now. And frankly, I don't think a GM should care about what fans think in terms of making the right deals for the franchise.

So two years of Jose Bautista, even if he falls into the 850-900 OPS range those final two seasons, isn't worth a true prospect? I think that every GM in baseball would give up one true prospect, especially if it is someone at the Low A level (which is what has been proposed with Corcino) for two years of a guy at that level.

Not to mention Joey Votto himself isn't going to sell 30000 tickets on a given night. Sure having fan favorites help sell some tickets, but a consistently contending team will sell many more, regardless of who is on the field.

redsfandan
09-01-2011, 08:18 AM
A couple of things. Lind was moved out of LF and to 1B for a reason. He's a LF like Alonso is a LF.

I get the local boy angle, but its way overblown IMO (almost as much as the catcher who speaks spanish is overblown). I wouldn't be all that happy if we dealt a more productive player for Youkilis simply to get that local boy factor.

I love Votto. He's better at the plate than most players I've seen here including most of the HOF on the BRM. Morgan and Bench were better players, but not better hitters. Rose really did have that extra something that many players are credited for but few have, but 4200+ hits and all, he wasn't the hitter that Joey is. For a short time, Kevin Mitchell was a bat on par with Joey, but he was too unreliable to be in Joey's class as a valuable player. George Foster from 76 through 81 or so, might have been on par with Joey, but even he didn't lead the league in both OBP and Slugging. I think pretty highly of Joey. All that said, Bautista is a better player who can fill positions that are more difficult to fill than what Votto can do. If I were a Jays fan and he was dealt for Votto straight up, I'd be pretty unhappy local boy or no. IMO, even Votto and Corcino isn't enough. If I were the Jays, I'd ask for Votto and Cueto and probably settle for no less than Votto, Bailey and Corcino.

You don't like Lind in left that's fine. But, it would be up to their gm to decide how he wanted things. And that's IF he's even really interested in Votto which I don't think we know for sure.

Also, I don't buy that much into Bautista being THAT much more valuable due to the positions he can play. He wouldn't be a full-time 3rd baseman since he doesn't want to play there all the time. And I wouldn't take him over Bruce in right. So, yeah, his value is helped by the fact that he's more versatile but how much his value is helped might be overblown too.

Toronto might want one of those deals but I hope the Reds wouldn't agree to either one. I think some people might be overrating other teams players and underrating the Reds players.

mth123
09-01-2011, 07:23 PM
You don't like Lind in left that's fine. But, it would be up to their gm to decide how he wanted things. And that's IF he's even really interested in Votto which I don't think we know for sure.

Also, I don't buy that much into Bautista being THAT much more valuable due to the positions he can play. He wouldn't be a full-time 3rd baseman since he doesn't want to play there all the time. And I wouldn't take him over Bruce in right. So, yeah, his value is helped by the fact that he's more versatile but how much his value is helped might be overblown too.

Toronto might want one of those deals but I hope the Reds wouldn't agree to either one. I think some people might be overrating other teams players and underrating the Reds players.

Funny. The whole reason this is even a discussion is because we value the idea of an MVP caliber bat that can play somewhere other than 1B so we can work our young 1B bat into the line-up in addition to the MVP caliber guy. Since bats at 1B are pretty easy to come by, dealing an MVP caliber 1B bat for an MVP caliber bat at another position seems like an easy way to improve the team. Then you just need to go get a run of the mill 1B and the team is improved. The Jays already have exactly what the Reds would be trying to achieve with a deal like this. Its crazy to think they would do it straight up. Add that Bautista is about 100 OPS points better than Votto (in a tougher park and a much tougher division) and is signed to a reasonable deal for 2 years beyond when Votto would be asking for the moon, any thought of a straight up deal are a complete pipe dream IMO.

Mario-Rijo
09-02-2011, 09:13 AM
I can't believe some of the stuff being bandied about here and being considered (accepted really) as fact.

#1 - Bautista > Votto = BOLOGNA no factual evidence to it. Take your small samples and throw them in the garbage can.

Last year Bautista allegedly got his swing together, fine. I'll toss away my suspicions because I do believe to some extent in the proper mechanics and approach making a world of difference. But going from UT guy to "best" or one of the best hitters in baseball is curious nonetheless. Jose Bautista is hitting for a far higher avg. than he ever has including last year which makes for the difference in how much better he is than Votto at this point this season. He isn't gonna continue hitting .310 (he just ain't a .310 hitter, Votto is) or has he made yet another tweak that he hasn't made public, doubtful. And if he is gonna go back to .260 then he is not better than Votto now or ever. Jose is a Slugger who is having a lucky year BA wise, Votto is a complete hitter who is having a down season power wise due to having a lack of protection (which we all knew was coming).

#2 - Votto is only here for 2 years and Jose would be here for 4. I agree the signs aren't encouraging but I am not willing to make the leap to he is gone just because public opinion says so or because the needle seems to be leaning in the direction (slight as it is). We haven't heard Votto suggest he wants no part of Cincy and we haven't heard Bob or Walt and company suggesting they need to consider different options. Until then could we please not drive him to the freaking airport, good grief.

#3 - The Blue Jays are gonna want more because Bautista has 2 years more of cost certainty (be they at market value or not which we have no real way of being for sure or not). And.....so?! Again our leverage in such a deal is Joey is better, Joey is younger and Joey is a Canadian which is great for their attendance and all they have to do is pay him and they will have him for the next 10 years. They can cough up the extra player(s) because they are the ones getting the better player for far longer.

#4 - Alonso is good. Ok admittedly this one is possible but we still don't know if he is and I am still leaning to no. He still hasn't shortened his swing much and Dusty has used him largely when he doesn't have to face power pitching (usually starts him against non power types, again usually). Sure he has used him in the late innings against some high leverage arms but he does have some pop in his bat and he is LH and Dusty knows it's always worth a shot. So Dusty has made him look alot better (in a small sample to begin with) than he is IMO. And if I'm right then trading Votto for a LF of all things doesn't fill a hole it just moves the deck chairs around.


I could be wrong but I know for a fact that no one can prove anything I have said is wrong at this juncture. And if this is true then why is all of RZ marching to rush Votto plus more out of town for less. Even if I am wrong a good GM should be looking at things this way because that is what good GM's do, they get better than they give.

dougdirt
09-02-2011, 10:09 AM
I can't believe some of the stuff being bandied about here and being considered (accepted really) as fact.

#1 - Bautista > Votto = BOLOGNA no factual evidence to it. Take your small samples and throw them in the garbage can.

Last year Bautista allegedly got his swing together, fine. I'll toss away my suspicions because I do believe to some extent in the proper mechanics and approach making a world of difference. But going from UT guy to "best" or one of the best hitters in baseball is curious nonetheless. Jose Bautista is hitting for a far higher avg. than he ever has including last year which makes for the difference in how much better he is than Votto at this point this season. He isn't gonna continue hitting .310 (he just ain't a .310 hitter, Votto is) or has he made yet another tweak that he hasn't made public, doubtful. And if he is gonna go back to .260 then he is not better than Votto now or ever. Jose is a Slugger who is having a lucky year BA wise, Votto is a complete hitter who is having a down season power wise due to having a lack of protection (which we all knew was coming).

#2 - Votto is only here for 2 years and Jose would be here for 4. I agree the signs aren't encouraging but I am not willing to make the leap to he is gone just because public opinion says so or because the needle seems to be leaning in the direction (slight as it is). We haven't heard Votto suggest he wants no part of Cincy and we haven't heard Bob or Walt and company suggesting they need to consider different options. Until then could we please not drive him to the freaking airport, good grief.

#3 - The Blue Jays are gonna want more because Bautista has 2 years more of cost certainty (be they at market value or not which we have no real way of being for sure or not). And.....so?! Again our leverage in such a deal is Joey is better, Joey is younger and Joey is a Canadian which is great for their attendance and all they have to do is pay him and they will have him for the next 10 years. They can cough up the extra player(s) because they are the ones getting the better player for far longer.

#4 - Alonso is good. Ok admittedly this one is possible but we still don't know if he is and I am still leaning to no. He still hasn't shortened his swing much and Dusty has used him largely when he doesn't have to face power pitching (usually starts him against non power types, again usually). Sure he has used him in the late innings against some high leverage arms but he does have some pop in his bat and he is LH and Dusty knows it's always worth a shot. So Dusty has made him look alot better (in a small sample to begin with) than he is IMO. And if I'm right then trading Votto for a LF of all things doesn't fill a hole it just moves the deck chairs around.


I could be wrong but I know for a fact that no one can prove anything I have said is wrong at this juncture. And if this is true then why is all of RZ marching to rush Votto plus more out of town for less. Even if I am wrong a good GM should be looking at things this way because that is what good GM's do, they get better than they give.

1. Bautista walks more than Votto. Bautista strikes out less than Votto. Bautista hits the ball over the fence more than Votto. Combine all three of those things and it suggests that he should have a better average than Votto. While he doesn't, it certainly doesn't suggest that he shouldn't be close to Votto in average.

3. Votto IS NOT BETTER. Sorry. He simply isn't. Jose Bautista is far and away the best hitter in baseball right now. He plays a position further up the defensive line than first base. Put the two together and he is clearly better than Votto. I can't really see any argument that will come close to convincing me otherwise.

4. Well of course Alonso has looked better than he truly is so far. He isn't a 1.150 OPS hitter.

bucksfan2
09-02-2011, 10:41 AM
1. Bautista walks more than Votto. Bautista strikes out less than Votto. Bautista hits the ball over the fence more than Votto. Combine all three of those things and it suggests that he should have a better average than Votto. While he doesn't, it certainly doesn't suggest that he shouldn't be close to Votto in average.

3. Votto IS NOT BETTER. Sorry. He simply isn't. Jose Bautista is far and away the best hitter in baseball right now. He plays a position further up the defensive line than first base. Put the two together and he is clearly better than Votto. I can't really see any argument that will come close to convincing me otherwise.

4. Well of course Alonso has looked better than he truly is so far. He isn't a 1.150 OPS hitter.

All this is based upon roughly 1.5 seasons of data. If I am going to make a long term decision I am going to go off track record and age.

There once was a time when Brady Anderson went from a lead off hitter to a 50 HR hitter. Bautista may be the one guy in baseball who went from a utility player to a great hitter without the help of PED's. Even so I remain skeptical and am not trading one of the best players in the NL for him.

osuceltic
09-02-2011, 11:01 AM
1. Bautista walks more than Votto. Bautista strikes out less than Votto. Bautista hits the ball over the fence more than Votto. Combine all three of those things and it suggests that he should have a better average than Votto. While he doesn't, it certainly doesn't suggest that he shouldn't be close to Votto in average.

3. Votto IS NOT BETTER. Sorry. He simply isn't. Jose Bautista is far and away the best hitter in baseball right now. He plays a position further up the defensive line than first base. Put the two together and he is clearly better than Votto. I can't really see any argument that will come close to convincing me otherwise.

4. Well of course Alonso has looked better than he truly is so far. He isn't a 1.150 OPS hitter.

The bolded words are the key. You seem to completely dismiss the suggestion that this just might be the best we ever see from Bautista. Throw in the age, PED and sign-stealing rumors, and the fact that Votto has a track record that makes him as close to a sure thing as you can get and this no-brainer isn't a no-brainer at all.

Blitz Dorsey
09-02-2011, 11:28 AM
I can't believe some of the stuff being bandied about here and being considered (accepted really) as fact.

#1 - Bautista > Votto = BOLOGNA no factual evidence to it. Take your small samples and throw them in the garbage can.

Last year Bautista allegedly got his swing together, fine. I'll toss away my suspicions because I do believe to some extent in the proper mechanics and approach making a world of difference. But going from UT guy to "best" or one of the best hitters in baseball is curious nonetheless. Jose Bautista is hitting for a far higher avg. than he ever has including last year which makes for the difference in how much better he is than Votto at this point this season. He isn't gonna continue hitting .310 (he just ain't a .310 hitter, Votto is) or has he made yet another tweak that he hasn't made public, doubtful. And if he is gonna go back to .260 then he is not better than Votto now or ever. Jose is a Slugger who is having a lucky year BA wise, Votto is a complete hitter who is having a down season power wise due to having a lack of protection (which we all knew was coming).

#2 - Votto is only here for 2 years and Jose would be here for 4. I agree the signs aren't encouraging but I am not willing to make the leap to he is gone just because public opinion says so or because the needle seems to be leaning in the direction (slight as it is). We haven't heard Votto suggest he wants no part of Cincy and we haven't heard Bob or Walt and company suggesting they need to consider different options. Until then could we please not drive him to the freaking airport, good grief.

#3 - The Blue Jays are gonna want more because Bautista has 2 years more of cost certainty (be they at market value or not which we have no real way of being for sure or not). And.....so?! Again our leverage in such a deal is Joey is better, Joey is younger and Joey is a Canadian which is great for their attendance and all they have to do is pay him and they will have him for the next 10 years. They can cough up the extra player(s) because they are the ones getting the better player for far longer.

#4 - Alonso is good. Ok admittedly this one is possible but we still don't know if he is and I am still leaning to no. He still hasn't shortened his swing much and Dusty has used him largely when he doesn't have to face power pitching (usually starts him against non power types, again usually). Sure he has used him in the late innings against some high leverage arms but he does have some pop in his bat and he is LH and Dusty knows it's always worth a shot. So Dusty has made him look alot better (in a small sample to begin with) than he is IMO. And if I'm right then trading Votto for a LF of all things doesn't fill a hole it just moves the deck chairs around.


I could be wrong but I know for a fact that no one can prove anything I have said is wrong at this juncture. And if this is true then why is all of RZ marching to rush Votto plus more out of town for less. Even if I am wrong a good GM should be looking at things this way because that is what good GM's do, they get better than they give.

A rational, well-thought out post. What in the world is something like that doing in here?

Homer Bailey
09-02-2011, 12:03 PM
I can't believe some of the stuff being bandied about here and being considered (accepted really) as fact.

#1 - Bautista > Votto = BOLOGNA no factual evidence to it. Take your small samples and throw them in the garbage can.

Last year Bautista allegedly got his swing together, fine. I'll toss away my suspicions because I do believe to some extent in the proper mechanics and approach making a world of difference. But going from UT guy to "best" or one of the best hitters in baseball is curious nonetheless. Jose Bautista is hitting for a far higher avg. than he ever has including last year which makes for the difference in how much better he is than Votto at this point this season. He isn't gonna continue hitting .310 (he just ain't a .310 hitter, Votto is) or has he made yet another tweak that he hasn't made public, doubtful. And if he is gonna go back to .260 then he is not better than Votto now or ever. Jose is a Slugger who is having a lucky year BA wise, Votto is a complete hitter who is having a down season power wise due to having a lack of protection (which we all knew was coming).

Ummmm 1,200 PA's is not a small sample. And I don't care one bit (and neither should you) about who has a higher batting average between Votto and Bautista. JB gets on base at a better clip, and slugs it a lot better than Votto. Bautista is a better overall bat, and that is factual.


#2 - Votto is only here for 2 years and Jose would be here for 4. I agree the signs aren't encouraging but I am not willing to make the leap to he is gone just because public opinion says so or because the needle seems to be leaning in the direction (slight as it is). We haven't heard Votto suggest he wants no part of Cincy and we haven't heard Bob or Walt and company suggesting they need to consider different options. Until then could we please not drive him to the freaking airport, good grief.

A player's contract is inherent in their overall value. In a possible trade, you are guaranteed 2 years of Votto, and 4 years of Bautista. That is fact.


#3 - The Blue Jays are gonna want more because Bautista has 2 years more of cost certainty (be they at market value or not which we have no real way of being for sure or not). And.....so?! Again our leverage in such a deal is Joey is better, Joey is younger and Joey is a Canadian which is great for their attendance and all they have to do is pay him and they will have him for the next 10 years. They can cough up the extra player(s) because they are the ones getting the better player for far longer.

Blue Jays will probably want more because they are giving up the more valuable player, especially when you consider the contracts. It's not guaranteed that Votto will want to be in Toronto after his 2 years are (hypothetically) up there.


#4 - Alonso is good. Ok admittedly this one is possible but we still don't know if he is and I am still leaning to no. He still hasn't shortened his swing much and Dusty has used him largely when he doesn't have to face power pitching (usually starts him against non power types, again usually). Sure he has used him in the late innings against some high leverage arms but he does have some pop in his bat and he is LH and Dusty knows it's always worth a shot. So Dusty has made him look alot better (in a small sample to begin with) than he is IMO. And if I'm right then trading Votto for a LF of all things doesn't fill a hole it just moves the deck chairs around.

This I can agree with. We don't know exactly what we're going to get out of Alonso, but my guess is around .850 production.


I could be wrong but I know for a fact that no one can prove anything I have said is wrong at this juncture. And if this is true then why is all of RZ marching to rush Votto plus more out of town for less. Even if I am wrong a good GM should be looking at things this way because that is what good GM's do, they get better than they give.

Except that we can prove a lot of what you said is false. Bautista is a better hitter than Votto. Bautista is more valuable because he is cost controlled (at a bargain, FYI), and Votto is probably going to command top dollar in two years. A lower batting average does not even come close to settling that argument. No one is "rushing Votto out of town." We're talking about potentially trading him for the best hitter in the game right now, not selling him off for prospects.

Blitz Dorsey
09-02-2011, 12:47 PM
Another thing people seem to be forgetting: This isn't an argument about who was better in 2010 or 2011. It's a matter of who will be better in 2012 and 2013 (and perhaps beyond). Votto has always been good and continues to get better. He's now an elite player in MLB. Heck, if he has the same type of precipitous spike in production at the age of 29 in 2013 like Bautista did, Votto will be the first player since Ted Williams to bat over .400 and the first since Yaz to win the triple crown. Of course, no one expects that big of a jump in production from Votto, but I do expect him to at least maintain or get better the next two seasons.

Bautista, on the other hand, has only two years of great production in his career. Before that he was a below-average player. He's also on the wrong side of 30 and a drop-off in production is coming soon.

It's my contention that Votto will be the better player in 2012 and 2013 compared to Jose Bautista. Look at their entire careers, not just the last two years, and you might agree. If not, it's all good too. The fun part is we'll find out 24 months from now who was right.

RedsManRick
09-02-2011, 01:05 PM
Some context:


09-11 PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA WAR
Votto 1795 14.5 18.5 .251 .364 .323 .425 .573 .427 18.6 (4th in mlb)
Bautista 1635 16.1 17.9 .302 .269 .270 .395 .572 .412 17.0 (9th in mlb)

10-11 PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA WAR
Votto 1251 15.2 18.1 .253 .360 .323 .430 .576 .431 13.9 (2nd in mlb)
Bautista 1231 16.9 16.8 .345 .267 .281 .409 .627 .436 14.9 (1st in mlb)

2011 PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA WAR
Votto 603 16.4 16.7 .228 .359 .323 .436 .550 .402 6.6 (T-5th in mlb)
Bautista 548 19.7 16.6 .330 .310 .309 .449 .640 .453 8.0 (1st in mlb)

If you want to follow the Bautista's numbers aren't "real" because he's cheating in some way argument, fine. But if you want to evaluate the two players on just their performances, there is little doubt that Bautista is currently a more productive player than Joey Votto.

Bautista will cost $56MM for the next 4 years ($14MM/yr). Votto costs $26.5MM over the next 2 years ($13.25MM/yr). Both guys represent massive bargains relative to FA.

Votto is likely to stay at this level of production for a few years. Bautista is likely decline -- the usual rate is about 0.5 WAR/yr.

Not surprisingly, it comes down to what you predict from Bautista over the next few years.

dougdirt
09-02-2011, 01:25 PM
The bolded words are the key. You seem to completely dismiss the suggestion that this just might be the best we ever see from Bautista. Throw in the age, PED and sign-stealing rumors, and the fact that Votto has a track record that makes him as close to a sure thing as you can get and this no-brainer isn't a no-brainer at all.

You seem to also completely dismiss that this might be the best Votto is ever going to be again too. He is in his "prime year" historically. And even still, he is a large step down from where Bautista is.

Homer Bailey
09-02-2011, 02:13 PM
Another thing people seem to be forgetting: This isn't an argument about who was better in 2010 or 2011. It's a matter of who will be better in 2012 and 2013 (and perhaps beyond). Votto has always been good and continues to get better. He's now an elite player in MLB. Heck, if he has the same type of precipitous spike in production at the age of 29 in 2013 like Bautista did, Votto will be the first player since Ted Williams to bat over .400 and the first since Yaz to win the triple crown. Of course, no one expects that big of a jump in production from Votto, but I do expect him to at least maintain or get better the next two seasons.

Bautista, on the other hand, has only two years of great production in his career. Before that he was a below-average player. He's also on the wrong side of 30 and a drop-off in production is coming soon.

It's my contention that Votto will be the better player in 2012 and 2013 compared to Jose Bautista. Look at their entire careers, not just the last two years, and you might agree. If not, it's all good too. The fun part is we'll find out 24 months from now who was right.

How does the period where Bautista was a "below-average player" have anything to do with the player that he currently is? He has very obviously changed his entire plate approach, and is a completely different player. Or, if you want to believe that he uses steroids (without anything close to any factual evidence, but that's for another thread), it still means he is an extremely valuable player who has happened to magically circumvent the MLB drug testing program. Nothing he did in 2008 or prior is relevant to the player he currently is.

The comments about the age are valid, but this is the point to consider. Who is going to provide more value, Votto over the next two years, or Bautista over the next four years? Barring injury, it's very clear that Bautista will provide more years of cost controlled production than Votto, even with an expected gradual decline in his numbers.

And no, we won't find out 24 months from now who was right. We'll find out 48 months from now.

corkedbat
09-02-2011, 03:09 PM
I love Joey, but I see no reason to believe the Reds will be able to extend him. I do not believe that the only reason for Bautista's turnaround was roids and agree that he is more valuable than JV because of his power and better defensive position. Add to that the fact that I was a bit of an Alonso skeptic, but now believe (only at 1B though) and I would do the deal if it is presented again. One other thing I like about the deal is it still leaves chips available to possibly make a run at Shields or other top starter.

My main reservation though would be including Corcino along with Joey, although I would consider throwing in Yorman if Lawrie were part of the deal also (doubt the Jays would bite though).


2B Brandon Phiillips
3B Brett Lawrie
RF Jay Bruce (or Alonso)
LF Jose Bautista
1B Yonder Alonso (or Bruce)
CA Devin Mesaraco
CF Drew Stubbs
SS Zach Cozart

CTA513
09-02-2011, 03:16 PM
So who replaces Alonso once he leaves?

defender
09-02-2011, 03:30 PM
Assuming Bautista’s performance is legitimate and ignoring his unique career progression, I still do not think he will ever have another season as good as Votto. 1200 PAs are a significant sample size, but it is only because of about 200 (April/May 2011), that Bautista is a statistically better hitter. He has had 2 amazing months and a great year, but I don’t predict this kind of production going forward.

I think 2011 will be Bautista’s best year, and 2010 his second based. I would still think this, even if he had Votto like years in ’08 and ’09 and there was no question of PEDs. Over the next two years, I think Bautista’s likely ceiling is about the same as Votto’s likely floor. I also think there is some risk that Bautista will not be worth his ’14 & ’15 Salary. I’ll take Votto.

corkedbat
09-02-2011, 03:30 PM
So who replaces Alonso once he leaves?

Replacing a 1B five or six years down the road should not be a worry now. Knoing your superstar hitter is likely going to walk with no return if something isn't done is a big a current concern. If Yonder turns into a star comparable to Joey and is too expensive to extend then you go through the same process.

Mario-Rijo
09-02-2011, 06:14 PM
'10-Present
Votto: 6.58 PA/W & 5.53 PA/K
Bautista: 5.91 PA/W & 5.91 PA/K (weirdly ironic)

So he has a slight edge, I mean a slight edge. Works out to about 10 walks a season, I'd call that a wash not a big advantage. And the K's not even worth discussing really. We shouldn't care though about a 60 point difference in BA (and that is giving Bautista the benefit of the doubt as he never even hit .260 before last year either)? Everything else is moot after that, Votto is superior sans this small sample size of this year 600ish PA's not 1200 as Votto was superior last year.

Mario-Rijo
09-02-2011, 06:17 PM
So who replaces Alonso once he leaves?

We may have to trade Bruce for a 1B then. How about we just trade for help for the next 2 seasons and let the cards fall where they may with Votto.

Mario-Rijo
09-02-2011, 06:21 PM
1. Bautista walks more than Votto. Bautista strikes out less than Votto. Bautista hits the ball over the fence more than Votto. Combine all three of those things and it suggests that he should have a better average than Votto. While he doesn't, it certainly doesn't suggest that he shouldn't be close to Votto in average.

3. Votto IS NOT BETTER. Sorry. He simply isn't. Jose Bautista is far and away the best hitter in baseball right now. He plays a position further up the defensive line than first base. Put the two together and he is clearly better than Votto. I can't really see any argument that will come close to convincing me otherwise.

4. Well of course Alonso has looked better than he truly is so far. He isn't a 1.150 OPS hitter.

Whatever you say Doug, don't have time to get into this at the moment but I will later. I will just continue to state that you are wrong, period. Votto is better, will be and short this season has been better. 1 season does not change anything.

wlf WV
09-02-2011, 06:48 PM
All the position weighs heavier doesn't seem to amount to a hill of beans. You get paid to hit and paid well.

nate
09-02-2011, 08:37 PM
All the position weighs heavier doesn't seem to amount to a hill of beans. You get paid to hit and paid well.

Huh?

mth123
09-02-2011, 08:41 PM
Huh?

Agreed

dougdirt
09-02-2011, 10:51 PM
Assuming Bautista’s performance is legitimate and ignoring his unique career progression, I still do not think he will ever have another season as good as Votto. 1200 PAs are a significant sample size, but it is only because of about 200 (April/May 2011), that Bautista is a statistically better hitter. He has had 2 amazing months and a great year, but I don’t predict this kind of production going forward.

I think 2011 will be Bautista’s best year, and 2010 his second based. I would still think this, even if he had Votto like years in ’08 and ’09 and there was no question of PEDs. Over the next two years, I think Bautista’s likely ceiling is about the same as Votto’s likely floor. I also think there is some risk that Bautista will not be worth his ’14 & ’15 Salary. I’ll take Votto.

Joey Votto: 2011 OPS - .987
Jose Bautista: 2011 OPS by month - 1.312, 1.267, .835, 1.068, 1.023

So no, two months isn't why Bautista is better. Every month this year but June, his monthly OPS was higher than Votto's for the season.

redsfandan
09-02-2011, 10:52 PM
I love Joey, but I see no reason to believe the Reds will be able to extend him. I do not believe that the only reason for Bautista's turnaround was roids and agree that he is more valuable than JV because of his power and better defensive position. Add to that the fact that I was a bit of an Alonso skeptic, but now believe (only at 1B though) and I would do the deal if it is presented again. One other thing I like about the deal is it still leaves chips available to possibly make a run at Shields or other top starter.

My main reservation though would be including Corcino along with Joey, although I would consider throwing in Yorman if Lawrie were part of the deal also (doubt the Jays would bite though).


2B Brandon Phiillips
3B Brett Lawrie
RF Jay Bruce (or Alonso)
LF Jose Bautista
1B Yonder Alonso (or Bruce)
CA Devin Mesaraco
CF Drew Stubbs
SS Zach Cozart
Bautista would be our left fielder. JUST like in your proposed lineup. Forget that he's played 3rd and Right before. That (his likely position with the Reds) wouldn't make him more valuable to the Reds imo.

We may have to trade Bruce for a 1B then. How about we just trade for help for the next 2 seasons and let the cards fall where they may with Votto.

Doubtful. I think Bruce could be like Larkin (and Bench and Concepcion...). A plus player at his position that could spend his whole career with the Reds. It doesn't matter whether it's now or 5 years from now, Bruce is probably the least likely player to be dealt.

kaldaniels
09-03-2011, 12:56 AM
Whatever you say Doug, don't have time to get into this at the moment but I will later. I will just continue to state that you are wrong, period. Votto is better, will be and short this season has been better. 1 season does not change anything.

Does the sum total of 2 seasons change anything?

I get that there are non-believers in Bautista. If that is your argument, I will let it be. But right now and over the past 2 years, Bautista is and has been better.

wlf WV
09-03-2011, 06:05 PM
Huh?
For example Nate: I think we can agree Manny Ramirez had huge negative value except for his bat.

Yet he is the 3rd highest paid player ever.

Elite batters' position or defense is of little consequence up till now.

Maybe with defensive metrics this will change, but it hasn't yet.

They get paid to hit.

Blitz Dorsey
09-04-2011, 12:15 AM
How does the period where Bautista was a "below-average player" have anything to do with the player that he currently is? He has very obviously changed his entire plate approach, and is a completely different player. Or, if you want to believe that he uses steroids (without anything close to any factual evidence, but that's for another thread), it still means he is an extremely valuable player who has happened to magically circumvent the MLB drug testing program. Nothing he did in 2008 or prior is relevant to the player he currently is.

The comments about the age are valid, but this is the point to consider. Who is going to provide more value, Votto over the next two years, or Bautista over the next four years? Barring injury, it's very clear that Bautista will provide more years of cost controlled production than Votto, even with an expected gradual decline in his numbers.

And no, we won't find out 24 months from now who was right. We'll find out 48 months from now.

So, your premise is to only look at Bautista's numbers from 2010-11 and ignore the rest of his career? I would take everything into account when trying to project how Bautista and Votto will play in the future. I'm not just looking at Bautista from 2004-09, and I'm not just looking at his last two years. I'm trying to factor everything into the equation. You agree about Bautista's age being a concern, so I don't need to expound on that.

Bottom line is we'll find out 24 months from now who was better in the 2012 and 2013 seasons combined. I think it will be Votto and would be willing to make a friendly wager on that front. Any takers?

dougdirt
09-04-2011, 12:43 AM
So, your premise is to only look at Bautista's numbers from 2010-11 and ignore the rest of his career? I would take everything into account when trying to project how Bautista and Votto will play in the future. I'm not just looking at Bautista from 2004-09, and I'm not just looking at his last two years. I'm trying to factor everything into the equation. You agree about Bautista's age being a concern, so I don't need to expound on that.

Bottom line is we'll find out 24 months from now who was better in the 2012 and 2013 seasons combined. I think it will be Votto and would be willing to make a friendly wager on that front. Any takers?

Why not include 2014 and 2015 for Bautista vs nothing for Votto since he will be a free agent? Wouldn't that make sense too.

And I am not sure I would wager Bautista would be better than Votto in 2012/2013, but I know at worst I would expect it to be close. But of course I would absolutely, without question take Bautista and his current contract over Votto and his. It would be like choosing between Minka Kelly and Jim Kelly as a future wife. No contest. No second thoughts.