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IslandRed
08-02-2011, 06:41 PM
The full title is "Game's shifting strategies leaves Beane, sage of Moneyball, behind," but though it starts out in Oakland it's really about the overall market and how young players have gone from undervalued to possibly overvalued. A good read, although many of the themes have been touched on here. Excerpt:


Like most emerging trends, the valuation of young players is based on solid theory but has come to be overemphasized -- except in San Francisco, where old-school Yoda Brian Sabean shipped off a former first-round pick, Zack Wheeler, to try to win a second straight World Series by renting Carlos Beltran.

The emphasis on young players is such that Cleveland, suddenly blessed with one of these rare "windows," was criticized for trading two top pitching prospects to get 27-year-old star pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez, and the Yankees pronounced their pride in having traded nobody.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/tom_verducci/08/02/billy.beane.moneyball/index.html?eref=writers

REDREAD
08-05-2011, 01:01 PM
Great article. Thanks for posting it.

I do agree that younger players are overvalued now. Especially by the large market teams.

In some cases, the market inefficiency is the undervalued veteran players.
Gomes was not the greatest LFer ever, but he filled in a void above replacement level at a very low cost. Very few drafted players give that much production at the ML level. There's probably better examples to make the point than Gomes.

The article fails to mention though that Beane's winning teams benefited a lot from roids too. Giambi, Tejeda, etc. That was just as important as Zito/Mulder/Hudson.

Joseph
08-05-2011, 02:46 PM
You know I think those large market prospects have always had an element of being overvalued to them. For every Hanley Ramirez who lived up to the hype there are dozens of guys the Yanks and Sox have traded away where were not even bad major leaguers, but in fact didn't make it at all.

Brutus
08-05-2011, 06:15 PM
I do agree that younger players are overvalued now. Especially by the large market teams...


...and here on Redszone as well!

dougdirt
08-05-2011, 10:15 PM
I would be interested to find a way to see the value of "cost effective prospects" for teams over and under the $100M payroll marker. I think that teams over that marker in payroll can much easier afford to "trade the farm" than teams under it. Ideally it makes sense because well, they can afford to buy their way out of not having guys ready to step in, but that isn't entirely what I am looking at.

wlf WV
08-05-2011, 11:21 PM
If he's right about the media being responsible for the over valuing,it leads to the logical conclusion that larger media markets' prospects have had superior billing and still do.

blumj
08-06-2011, 08:55 AM
You know I think those large market prospects have always had an element of being overvalued to them. For every Hanley Ramirez who lived up to the hype there are dozens of guys the Yanks and Sox have traded away where were not even bad major leaguers, but in fact didn't make it at all.

I don't think that's nearly as true as it used to be, you almost can't turn around without tripping over a former Yankee prospect who's contributing something for someone: Ian Kennedy, Tyler Clippard, Daniel McCutchen, Jeff Karstens, Phil Coke, Mark Melancon, Austin Jackson. Not as many former Red Sox, but you bump into some of them around, too: Anibal Sanchez, Justin Masterson, David Murphy, David Pauley. The most hyped ones usually end up staying, they seem to buy it as much or more than everyone else.