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Kc61
08-03-2011, 03:07 PM
Reds go 5-5 again, now two under .500, fall to 6.5 behind first-place Milwaukee. Reds at 54-56 overall, 30-27 home, 24-29 road. Reds run differential plus 43 is fourth best in NL, yet team is fourth in NL Central. Cozart on DL, Janish back up. Gomes traded to D.C., Alonso up.

Offense - Team OPS improves from .730 to .735. Team SLG improves from .402 to .405. Team OBP improves from .328 to .330. Team BA improves from .258 to .260. Team is third or fourth in NL in all these categories. Reds second in NL in runs and third in hits.

Reds OPS with RISP and two outs is .617, tied for 12th-13th in NL. BA with RISP and two out is .201. St. Louis is at .275 to lead league. Reds OPS with the bases loaded is .610, thirteenth in NL. Reds BA with bases loaded is .198, fifteenth in NL.

Votto was NL Player of the Week, now with .943 OPS and .320 BA. Over last 7 days Renteria had a .733 OPS, improving his numbers, principally against LHP (Renteria with OPS over 1.000 for last 7 days). Among active regulars, Hanigan is below .700 OPS at .662, having rough year at the plate. Cozart was at .811 when injured. Dontrelle Willis with .900 OPS in 10 at bats.

Pitching - Reds team ERA now at 3.99, much improved over this last stretch. Has gone from 4.18 to 4.06 to 3.99 in last reports. NL average is 3.82. In last 7 days (including 8 games), Reds team ERA is 3.32, middle of NL pack.

Reds starting pitching now at 4.40 ERA, improved from 4.51 last time. Bullpen now at 3.19, slightly better than last time. Reds FIP is 4.21. Last time it was 4.29, so improved.

Reds bullpen, despite good ERA, has saved 58 percent of its opportunities. Only the Astros are worse in this category.

Cueto with 1.72 ERA would be league leader (I believe MLB leader) except he's just short on IP. Has a .98 WHIP and a .197 BA against. Other ERAs for starters include Willis at 3.52, Leake at 3.89, Bailey at 4.30, Arroyo at 5.45.
Chapman pitching lights out in pen, has not allowed a hit over more than 9 relief innings.


Fielding - has fallen off some. Reds had the best UZR rating in NL for some time, now trail DBacks in that rating.
In last twenty games Reds went from 44 errors to current 62 errors. Reds now at .985 FPCT, lower than previously, tied for fifth best in NL. In month of July Reds allowed 11 unearned runs as compared with four unearned runs allowed in June.

dsmith421
08-03-2011, 03:15 PM
Reds bullpen, despite good ERA, has saved 58 percent of its opportunities. Only the Astros are worse in this category.


Starting to believe this is the #1 reason why the whole is less than the sum of its parts. Those one-run wins turning into one-run losses don't affect the Pythag much but they destroy the record.

Kc61
08-03-2011, 08:22 PM
Starting to believe this is the #1 reason why the whole is less than the sum of its parts. Those one-run wins turning into one-run losses don't affect the Pythag much but they destroy the record.

Agree that blown saves are a factor. I'm not sure it's the fairest of stats. A middle reliever can't GET a save - he doesn't finish the game. A middle reliever can BLOW a save if he gives up the lead as I understand.

I think you'd have to look at "holds" and perhaps other stats (WHIP, inherited runners scoring) to get a more balanced view of the entire bullpen. I still think it's a pretty good pen.

Of course, save percentage does matter for a closer, and Coco hasn't been great (five blown saves in 24 attempts). However - Coco only has 24 save attempts at this point in the season. That is a problem. Brian Wilson has 33 saves. Craig Kimbrel has 32 saves. Coco only has 24 save OPPORTUNITIES.

Reds as a whole have only 36 save opportunities. One of the lowest numbers in the NL. Washington, for example, has 53 save opportunities. Milwaukee has 50.

So part of the problem is blown saves. Part of the problem is not enough late leads. Or maybe the Reds tend to lead in blowout games (no save opportunity) but not in close games this year.

I don't think there is one area to single out for the Reds.

It's starting pitching earlier in the year.
It's situational hitting.
It's inconsistent, feast or famine, run production.
It's blown saves.
In the last month it's bad defense.
It's sometimes in-game decisions.

It's a lot of things.