PDA

View Full Version : What's with the Reds?



Kc61
08-06-2011, 06:19 PM
The Reds aren't just on a bad streak. They are playing terrible ball. The team seems to be falling apart IMO. Even the defense isn't any good lately, and I'm not just pointing to the new rookies.

Are they just distracted recognizing they are out of the race?

Has the manager lost his touch with the players?

Are there real problems behind the scenes?

What's going on?

Ghosts of 1990
08-06-2011, 07:21 PM
They've quit. They look like from the first pitch they expect to lose. No one wants to be there now. It all comes from the lack of leadership in the clubhouse.

Redhook
08-06-2011, 07:28 PM
Depression. They'll bounce back this year, but it's really hard to play when you know you have no chance the win (division). I know they're supposed to be professionals, but they're also human. I don't think they've quit, but the adrenaline is certainly gone.

cincrazy
08-06-2011, 07:31 PM
I don't think they've quit. I just think it's a team full of individuals that know they're not currently good enough to win. And that will kill morale, especially coming off a division winning season.

mth123
08-06-2011, 07:38 PM
I don't think they've quit. The flaws have been exposed now. The team didn't add pieces to sure up weaknesses and now the weaknesses are being exploited. On offense, team's basically just don't let Votto beat them, Bruce chokes from trying to do too much and everyone else is a bad bet (at least against RHP). The Rotation is iffy and wore out the pen in the first half with its numerous drubbings and short outings. The pen has decent arms as pens go, but they're (Masset, Ondrusek and to a lesser extent Bray) used up IMO. Arredondo is in that "first year back so I'm still kind of crappy" stage. Lecure is due to turn back into a pumpkin at anytime if he hasn't already.

Phhhl
08-06-2011, 11:09 PM
I don't think they've quit. I just think it's a team full of individuals that know they're not currently good enough to win. And that will kill morale, especially coming off a division winning season.

I'm not referring specifically to your post, but I keep hearing this nonsense in the media about how this team doesn't have the talent to win. I don't think there is any question this team had the talent to win the division in 2011. Basically, the exact same team DID win it last year. So, something else went horribly wrong. Management being too slow to recognizing areas of need, Dusty Baker maybe... but it wasn't the talent. This team has every reason to believe it stands a good chance of winning in 2012, so long as the front office has learned from 2011 and do not completely sit on their hands again.

Tearing the core of this talented team apart would be a colossal mistake, and I actually think radio heads like Mo Eggar and Lance McAllister would be in favor of something like that.

cincrazy
08-06-2011, 11:36 PM
I'm not referring specifically to your post, but I keep hearing this nonsense in the media about how this team doesn't have the talent to win. I don't think there is any question this team had the talent to win the division in 2011. Basically, the exact same team DID win it last year. So, something else went horribly wrong. Management being too slow to recognizing areas of need, Dusty Baker maybe... but it wasn't the talent. This team has every reason to believe it stands a good chance of winning in 2012, so long as the front office has learned from 2011 and do not completely sit on their hands again.

Tearing the core of this talented team apart would be a colossal mistake, and I actually think radio heads like Mo Eggar and Lance McAllister would be in favor of something like that.

I agree that Dusty and management and other areas have hindered this team in 2011, but I disagree that they had the talent to win it. 2011 is a different year than 2010. Arroyo is a different player. So is Scott Rolen. So was Jonny Gomes. So was Ryan Hanigan. The team had and has enough talent to compete, but in hindsight, the Cardinals and Brewers were just better. More talented. More stars. Just better baseball teams. This team's biggest mistake was thinking this team was good enough, with no changes, to repeat.

OldXOhio
08-06-2011, 11:38 PM
Take a look at the team's stats. Outside of Votto, Cueto and a few arms in the pen, no one's stand out as being anything but slightly above average at best. Folks can make the claim all they want about the hoard of talent the Reds have, but the numbers this season say otherwise.

cincrazy
08-06-2011, 11:41 PM
Take a look at the team's stats. Outside of Votto, Cueto and a few arms in the pen, no one's stand out as being anything but slightly above average at best. Folks can make the claim all they want about the hoard of talent the Reds have, but the numbers this season say otherwise.

Agreed. I don't see talent in left. I don't see it at shortstop. I don't see it at third. Center field, right field, who knows what you're going to get on a given day or in a given series. The pitching staff has righted itself, but guys like Volquez and Wood haven't met their expectations for various reasons. And the bullpen has done a decent job, but outside of Chapman, how many live, exciting arms are there?

The team is still in decent shape moving forward. But only if this organization makes clear efforts to improve certain areas. They absolutely have to be proactive this offseason. To be passive once again would be to court disaster.

Always Red
08-07-2011, 12:14 AM
1971, redux.

They need to find Morgan, Geronimo, Menke, Armbrister and Billingham this off season.

Lee May, Tommy Helms and Jimmy Stewart gotta go.

Will M
08-07-2011, 12:37 AM
everyone has an opinion on this. i believe the team needs an infusion of talent as well as some sort of shakeup if they want to win in 2012. same GM. same manager. same players. that has been the formula for the last 1.5 years. i don't think it will work going forward. no one should be off limits as the team tries to improve.

mth123
08-07-2011, 01:54 AM
1971, redux.

They need to find Morgan, Geronimo, Menke, Armbrister and Billingham this off season.

Lee May, Tommy Helms and Jimmy Stewart gotta go.

I've seen this a few times and I get the analogy, but that 1971 went until 1975 before they got their act together to the point of winning it all. This team doesn't have that long. Rolen is already declining and will be gone by the end of 2012 in any event. Phillips is gone after 2012. Votto probably after 2013. Rolen may be declining, but those three have been All Stars the last two seasons. I've never been a huge fan of Hernandez, but he's been pretty effective for 2010 and 2011 and he'll be gone after this season. When those guys go, this is just another team of struggling players. Mesoraco, Frazier, Alonso and Sappelt may be promising kids, but they aren't really upgrades. Its not reallly likely that the team will get 3 All Stars, one of whom is an MVP caliber player, from that group. They need to go All in for 2012. After that, the odds get longer IMO and when Votto leaves this will be just another team full of iffy kids and flawed players.

Phhhl
08-07-2011, 04:26 AM
Alonso is an elite hitter right now, but even if the Reds traded Votto for a haul at other positions Yonder is still a horrendous first baseman. Alonso is a professional DH. I can't imagine him developing as even an average player at any defensive position at the major league level. He gets discombobulated by lazy fly balls, and would not know the right base to throw to with a compass. It would be embarassing if he were not such a good hitter.

Phhhl
08-07-2011, 04:29 AM
I've seen this a few times and I get the analogy, but that 1971 went until 1975 before they got their act together to the point of winning it all. This team doesn't have that long. Rolen is already declining and will be gone by the end of 2012 in any event. Phillips is gone after 2012. Votto probably after 2013. Rolen may be declining, but those three have been All Stars the last two seasons. I've never been a huge fan of Hernandez, but he's been pretty effective for 2010 and 2011 and he'll be gone after this season. When those guys go, this is just another team of struggling players. Mesoraco, Frazier, Alonso and Sappelt may be promising kids, but they aren't really upgrades. Its not reallly likely that the team will get 3 All Stars, one of whom is an MVP caliber player, from that group. They need to go All in for 2012. After that, the odds get longer IMO and when Votto leaves this will be just another team full of iffy kids and flawed players.

Should the Reds explore what they could get for Joey this winter? They may not have an opportunity like this for quite a while.

mth123
08-07-2011, 05:07 AM
Should the Reds explore what they could get for Joey this winter? They may not have an opportunity like this for quite a while.

No. Elite players in their prime who can be a foundation for a championship team don't come around often. They should go hard to win it all while he's here. Once he's gone the ship will have sailed IMO,

Phhhl
08-07-2011, 05:16 AM
It is sad. Who is better than us? Nobody. It makes me sick to think what has happened to this team in the last three weeks. I don't even care what happens to baseball the remainder of this season without the Reds.

Always Red
08-07-2011, 07:15 AM
I've seen this a few times and I get the analogy, but that 1971 went until 1975 before they got their act together to the point of winning it all. This team doesn't have that long. Rolen is already declining and will be gone by the end of 2012 in any event. Phillips is gone after 2012. Votto probably after 2013. Rolen may be declining, but those three have been All Stars the last two seasons. I've never been a huge fan of Hernandez, but he's been pretty effective for 2010 and 2011 and he'll be gone after this season. When those guys go, this is just another team of struggling players. Mesoraco, Frazier, Alonso and Sappelt may be promising kids, but they aren't really upgrades. Its not reallly likely that the team will get 3 All Stars, one of whom is an MVP caliber player, from that group. They need to go All in for 2012. After that, the odds get longer IMO and when Votto leaves this will be just another team full of iffy kids and flawed players.

Yeah, the business of baseball is different now than it was back then too- the reserve clause was still in effect and it was easier to keep the players you wanted. I get your point about the time being now.

But in 1972 the Reds won 95 games and lost in the WS, won 99 in 1973 and lost to the Mets in the playoffs, and in 1974 won 98 and finished 2nd in the NL West.

I would take those win totals in a heartbeat for this team.

The changes made after that 1971 season were the launching pad to greatness. I'm hoping for the same for this Reds team.

traderumor
08-07-2011, 09:37 AM
The starting rotation dug us a hole, one run losses kept us around .500, and now injuries have decimated the team. The minor leaguers can hit but can't field, so things are getting sloppy.

My big concern is that quietly we have no pitching again. There is little to nothing in the minors to help anytime soon. We're either trading for some or hoping that the D can return and bail them out time after time like they did in 2010. Or, its Groundhog Day and we get to watch several more years of bad pitching.

Strikes Out Looking
08-07-2011, 09:57 AM
They've given up. Hopefully, Sappellt will get some AB's at lead off. They need a hitting coach that can teach contact (of course that should be done at A ball but many of the Reds prospects have so much talent they don't need to worry at the lower levels).

traderumor
08-07-2011, 03:34 PM
They've given up. Hopefully, Sappellt will get some AB's at lead off. They need a hitting coach that can teach contact (of course that should be done at A ball but many of the Reds prospects have so much talent they don't need to worry at the lower levels).Fly outs, pop ups, ground outs, double plays all result from contact.

Kc61
08-07-2011, 04:09 PM
Fly outs, pop ups, ground outs, double plays all result from contact.

With contact you can get a hit.

If you don't make contact getting a hit is rather difficult.

traderumor
08-07-2011, 04:16 PM
With contact you can get a hit.

If you don't make contact getting a hit is rather difficult.Getting a hit is rather difficult in this game whether you make contact or not. I'm worried about how often a guy gets on base and how hard he hits his hits. The splits on his outs don't interest me a whole lot. I think the research has shown that strikeouts are not an overall hindrance to creating runs, and its been demonstrated on here many times....so many times that I was finally convinced to change my position from yours and Strikes Out Looking to the one I've communicated here.

dougdirt
08-07-2011, 04:17 PM
With contact you can get a hit.

If you don't make contact getting a hit is rather difficult.

If you don't make contact you are never going to hit into a double play. If you do make contact, you can hit into a double play.

The guy who leads baseball, by far, in GIDP this season is a guy who has struck out a total of 38 times this year.

Kc61
08-07-2011, 04:25 PM
I can't argue with anyone who thinks making contact is unimportant for a hitter. It is an absurd position.

No team or player succeeds solely by drawing walks. Most good things that happen on offense in baseball require contact.

A player who strikes out very frequently had better be very good or very lucky when he hits the ball. Otherwise those strike outs will cost him dearly.

dougdirt
08-07-2011, 04:37 PM
I can't argue with anyone who thinks making contact is unimportant for a hitter. It is an absurd position.

No team or player succeeds solely by drawing walks. Most good things that happen on offense in baseball require contact.

A player who strikes out very frequently had better be very good or very lucky when he hits the ball. Otherwise those strike outs will cost him dearly.

No one is arguing that a team or player succeeds by solely drawing walks. But no team or player is going to succeed by solely making contact either.

Here are the 35 lowest strikeout rate guys in baseball this year and their OPS.


Name K% OPS
Jose Reyes 6.50% .886
A.J. Pierzynski 6.50% .709
Juan Pierre 6.60% .663
Placido Polanco 7.80% .672
Albert Pujols 8.60% .876
Ichiro Suzuki 8.70% .628
Ryan Theriot 8.80% .659
Martin Prado 9.10% .731
Nick Markakis 9.10% .731
Jimmy Rollins 9.40% .733
Adrian Beltre 9.50% .823
Alb Callaspo 9.50% .734
Chris Getz 9.60% .600
Omar Infante 9.60% .688
Yun Betancourt 9.80% .668
Victor Martinez 9.80% .816
Darwin Barney 9.90% .683
Daniel Murphy 10.00% .806
Yadier Molina 10.00% .775
Angel Pagan 10.00% .668
Carlos Lee 10.10% .742
Shane Victorino 10.20% .920
Coco Crisp 10.30% .724
Ian Kinsler 10.30% .770
Troy Tulowitzki 10.40% .894
Vlad Guerrero 10.50% .715
Jamey Carroll 10.70% .730
Dustin Pedroia 10.70% .882
Alex Rios 11.10% .557
Yunel Escobar 11.10% .825
Casey Kotchman 11.20% .849
Elvis Andrus 11.20% .679
Alcides Escobar 11.40% .615
Bran Phillips 11.50% .752
James Loney 11.70% .612


There are 13 players (that is 37%) UNDER .700 OPS. There are 22 players (That is 63%) UNDER a .750 OPS. There are 5 players with an OPS over .850.

Here is the bottom 35 guys in strikeout rate in baseball this year and their OPS


Name K% OPS
Adam Dunn 35.90% .596
Drew Stubbs 29.60% .709
Mark Reynolds 29.00% .798
Miguel Olivo 28.30% .627
Mike Stanton 27.80% .863
Kelly Johnson 27.50% .717
Austin Jackson 27.10% .677
Carlos Pena 26.60% .799
Josh Willingham 26.40% .779
Ryan Howard 25.40% .829
C Granderson 24.60% .928
B.J. Upton 24.20% .717
Nelson Cruz 24.10% .842
Chris Johnson 24.00% .659
Peter Bourjos 24.00% .726
Jayson Werth 23.80% .707
Danny Espinosa 23.50% .737
Brett Wallace 23.40% .720
Alex Avila 23.30% .867
Freddie Freeman 23.10% .843
Cameron Maybin 22.80% .732
Jay Bruce 22.40% .830
Derrek Lee 22.40% .723
Corey Hart 22.30% .837
Michael Morse 22.30% .934
Dan Uggla 22.00% .720
Alex Gonzalez 22.00% .601
Jason Bay 22.00% .677
Ian Desmond 21.90% .607
Matt Kemp 21.50% .974
Stephen Drew 20.90% .713
Justin Smoak 20.80% .706
Matt Joyce 20.70% .838
Ryan Ludwick 20.50% .675
Rickie Weeks 20.50% .824


There are 8 players UNDER a .700 OPS (that is 23%). There are 20 players under .750 OPS (that is 57%). There are 5 players with an OPS over .850.

So does contact rate really mean much or is it simply a small part of the conversation to the overall value of a hitter?

Kc61
08-07-2011, 04:50 PM
Contact rate is vital for most hitters.

Some guys, usually power guys or very high walk guys, can strike out a bit more. They compensate for the strikeouts to some extent.

For most mortal guys, strikeouts are killers.

Obviously, as you show, weak hitters with no power can fail even without strikeouts. They are the other extreme. But for most hitters, contact is important.

dougdirt
08-07-2011, 05:00 PM
Contact rate is vital for most hitters.

Some guys, usually power guys or very high walk guys, can strike out a bit more. They compensate for the strikeouts to some extent.

For most mortal guys, strikeouts are killers.

Obviously, as you show, weak hitters with no power can fail even without strikeouts. They are the other extreme. But for most hitters, contact is important.

Contact isn't the important part, its the quality of the contact. Brandon Phillips makes more contact than anyone on the Reds. He makes a whole lot of weak contact (which leads to plenty of double plays) because he expands his zone trying to just put the ball in play.

There is clearly more than one way to skin a cat in terms of offensive production. But strikeouts, except at the very extremes, aren't helping many guys or hurting many guys. It is everything else that they do (hitting for power, taking walks, making quality contact when they do put the ball in play).

Kc61
08-07-2011, 05:03 PM
Contact isn't the important part, its the quality of the contact. Brandon Phillips makes more contact than anyone on the Reds. He makes a whole lot of weak contact (which leads to plenty of double plays) because he expands his zone trying to just put the ball in play.

There is clearly more than one way to skin a cat in terms of offensive production. But strikeouts, except at the very extremes, aren't helping many guys or hurting many guys. It is everything else that they do (hitting for power, taking walks, making quality contact when they do put the ball in play).

On the Reds, there is at least one guy at the very extremes in strikeouts. IMO it is hurting him and the team badly.

dougdirt
08-07-2011, 05:04 PM
On the Reds, there is at least one guy at the very extremes in strikeouts. IMO it is hurting him and the team badly.

Stubbs strikeouts aren't hurting the team. Dusty batting him first is. If Stubbs were in the 6 or 7 spot, they wouldn't be much of an issue at all.

PuffyPig
08-07-2011, 05:10 PM
My big concern is that quietly we have no pitching again.

There may be a reason why it is so quiet.

We have pretty much the same team ERA as last year, which was good enough to win the division.

Kc61
08-07-2011, 05:16 PM
Stubbs strikeouts aren't hurting the team. Dusty batting him first is. If Stubbs were in the 6 or 7 spot, they wouldn't be much of an issue at all.

A 200 strikeout hitter hurts the team unless he produces like Adam Dunn in a good year. Stubbs' strikeouts hurt the team and would in any batting spot, except maybe eighth.

dougdirt
08-07-2011, 05:20 PM
A 200 strikeout hitter hurts the team unless he produces like Adam Dunn in a good year. Stubbs' strikeouts hurt the team and would in any batting spot, except maybe eighth.

Stubbs has a decent OBP. His strikeouts aren't hurting the team. Yes, if he struck out less, he would help more in all likelihood, but even at this point, his strikeouts aren't hindering him from getting on base at a decent clip. He trails Brandon Phillips in OBP by .007 this year. It isn't the strikeouts that are the issue.

Kc61
08-07-2011, 05:31 PM
Stubbs has a decent OBP. His strikeouts aren't hurting the team. Yes, if he struck out less, he would help more in all likelihood, but even at this point, his strikeouts aren't hindering him from getting on base at a decent clip. He trails Brandon Phillips in OBP by .007 this year. It isn't the strikeouts that are the issue.

Against RHP his OBP is around .310 his BA around .235.

Stubbs hitting against RHP, including his strikeouts, have seriously hurt the team.

traderumor
08-07-2011, 06:45 PM
There may be a reason why it is so quiet.

We have pretty much the same team ERA as last year, which was good enough to win the division.I'm talking about the organization and its prospects going forward. It is going the wrong direction and I think that this staff will be overly D dependent.

Are you as confident about the future of the pitching staff as you were one year ago? In the offseason? I know I'm getting very bearish on the staff that has arrived and am very concerned about what is in the pipeline. We need to trade away some offense to get that corrected or its gonna be more losing, esp. entering a cycle of pitching > hitting in MLB.

jojo
08-07-2011, 09:34 PM
There may be a reason why it is so quiet.

We have pretty much the same team ERA as last year, which was good enough to win the division.

Last year it was 8th best in the NL (exactly average). This year it is 13th in the NL (not exactly average).

Kc61
08-07-2011, 10:00 PM
Last year it was 8th best in the NL (exactly average). This year it is 13th in the NL (not exactly average).

True, Reds team ERA is well below average this year because the league overall ERA is better. So Reds ERA, while similar to last year, ranks lower.

But to be fair, given GABP, it will be tough for Reds team ERA to be among the league's best. It is much better now than in the bad years of the late nineties and early 2000s.

I think it is a good target for next year to get the ERA below 4. Anything below 4 is good for this club.

But playing in a home run ballpark should result in top notch offensive stats. The Reds offensive stats are good, but not top notch IMO.

RedsManRick
08-08-2011, 12:40 AM
Fangraphs uses wRC+, which is wOBA based runs created above/below average, adjusted for park and league.

They have the Reds offense at 98, 4th behind the Cards, Mets and Brewers. I'm not exactly confident in that because that leaves just 3 teams above 100 and I'm not sure how that averages out. Last year they were at 105, just behind the Brewers for 2nd.

If you look at xFIP-, the Reds are at 106 (6% above average), which is tied for last in the NL with the Cubs. Last year they were at 103, tied for 12.

Defensively, they have a team UZR/150 of 9.1, best in the NL. Last year it was 5.4, 4th.

So, notably worse offense (but still solid). Slightly worse pitching (bad). Notably better defense (very good). And that aligns pretty well with our xW-L of 61-53 (87 win pace). Last year our xW-L was right where we ended up, 91-71. So, a step back from last year performance-wise and a big ol' dose of bad timing and there you go.

bucksfan2
08-08-2011, 12:01 PM
Fangraphs uses wRC+, which is wOBA based runs created above/below average, adjusted for park and league.

They have the Reds offense at 98, 4th behind the Cards, Mets and Brewers. I'm not exactly confident in that because that leaves just 3 teams above 100 and I'm not sure how that averages out. Last year they were at 105, just behind the Brewers for 2nd.

If you look at xFIP-, the Reds are at 106 (6% above average), which is tied for last in the NL with the Cubs. Last year they were at 103, tied for 12.

Defensively, they have a team UZR/150 of 9.1, best in the NL. Last year it was 5.4, 4th.

So, notably worse offense (but still solid). Slightly worse pitching (bad). Notably better defense (very good). And that aligns pretty well with our xW-L of 61-53 (87 win pace). Last year our xW-L was right where we ended up, 91-71. So, a step back from last year performance-wise and a big ol' dose of bad timing and there you go.

I don't really dismiss any of this. I think its pretty evident that this team has tremendously underperformed. How do you explain the underperformance?

signalhome
08-08-2011, 01:47 PM
I don't really dismiss any of this. I think its pretty evident that this team has tremendously underperformed. How do you explain the underperformance?

Inefficient run distribution: scoring little when more is needed, scoring a lot when not much is needed. That's the most likely explanation, and if that is indeed the reason for the poor record, there is little reason for worry.

jojo
08-08-2011, 02:16 PM
Before the season, the Reds were projected to win 85-86 games based upon estimations their true talent (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=88105&highlight=2011+reds+projected). Their current pythag has them playing at a .530 clip based upon their RS/RA. That would translate into 87 wins.

Sometimes randomness gets in the way of dreams.

wlf WV
08-08-2011, 02:46 PM
When the numbers don't add up,is the only explanation bad luck or randomness?I'm not being sarcastic.

nate
08-08-2011, 09:54 PM
When the numbers don't add up,is the only explanation bad luck or randomness?I'm not being sarcastic.

No. But I think it's the majority of the explanation.