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I(heart)Freel
08-09-2011, 02:59 PM
The Reds need a closer and a left fielder in 2012, right? We'd (mostly) agree that these are the needs, I'm guessing. We wouldn't want the FO to sit on their hands again and not do something to improve the club.

So how much do they have left to spend?

Let's assume the Reds are operating with around $80 million in payroll for 2012. I plugged commitments (from Cot's and other sources) into a spreadsheet and came up with $68 mill. Before a few arbitration cases. See chart below.

This assumed a couple things:

1) BPhil's option will be picked up; though it's possible that the they'll rework that salary and break into a 3 year extenstion (a la Arroyo). This could be a place to "find" more money.
2) Cordero's option will be turned down; so I built in $1 mill for that pay-out.
3) I assume Ramon won't be back of offered arb and that Mes is up.

Those arbitration cases could quickly eat up that pay-flex. They are:


Bailey
Janish
Masset
Bray
Arrendondo
Burton


No world beaters in the mix, to be sure. But I have to think all of them will add up to a few million.

So... do the Reds have less than $8 million to solve left field and closer?

This, to me, screams out that a salary-shedding trade will be made. Possibly of the Votto magnitude.

It's going to be an interesting hot stove league.



2012 salary
c Hanigan 1.3
1b Votto 11.5
2b Phillips 12
ss Cozart 0.45
3b Rolen 8.17
rf Bruce 5.08
cf Stubbs 0.45
lf

sp1 Cueto 5.4
sp2 Arroyo 12
sp3 Leake 0.45
sp4 Bailey Arb1
sp5 Chapman 4.71

closer

bench Mes 0.45
Cairo 1
Sappelt 0.45
Heisey 0.45
Janish Arb1

bull Masset Arb3
Lecure 0.45
Ondrusek 0.45
Bray Arb2
Arrendondo Arb1
Burton Arb3

other Alonso 1.4
Coco buyout 1


contracts 10 67.16
options 1 1
arbs 6 ???
TOTAL 68.16

Tom Servo
08-09-2011, 03:04 PM
sp2 Arroyo 12


:(

jojo
08-09-2011, 03:11 PM
The Reds are on pace to realize a 10% increase in attendance this season versus last season. It will be interesting to see if payroll is impacted.

RedsManRick
08-09-2011, 03:27 PM
I could see us offering Lewis arbitration. Add him and Sappelt and you have your LF for 2012. I think Sappelt is our everyday LF and leadoff man in 2012.

I'd love to get Arroyo's contracts off the book, but that's not likely happening. Though I could maybe see the Sox or Yankees picking him off waivers. If we don't move him this year, I think he's got 10/5 next.

But rather than needing to trade a salary to make a bigger move in FA, I think the move is still the trade market. Use that ~8M to upgrade, along the lines of what a Jiminez trade would have accomplished. Anibal Sanchez would be a decent target. He's an arb3 guy and will be getting expensive for Florida. That said, he's no ace. Or if you want to go big, Votto for Lincecum. MVP for Cy Young. We need pitching, they need offense. and they could play Belt in RF.

Slyder
08-09-2011, 03:36 PM
If Janish, Burton, or Arrendondo cost more than 2 mil combined you non tender them. Their value isn't worth arguing before the arby board.

Payroll flexibility is why I would consider not picking up Phillips option. That 12 mil could go a long ways to improving a bunch of places and while we would lose defense I think with some of the guys we have waiting for their shot you might find "comparable" offensive bats. Or at the very least give you the flexibility to seriously approach a team like the Rays for Shields.

mth123
08-09-2011, 07:25 PM
Nitpicking, but $5 Million of Arroyo's deal is deferred. If the Reds fund it from the 2012 budget, they probably pay around $3.5 Million of that or so. Rolen is at 7.8 and not 8.1. Chapman also has a bunch deferred and only will cost $2 Million in 2012. I'd guess Burton won't get offered a contract and Janish probably plays for a little over the minimum or he's gone too. Cots shows Alonso at $1 Million instead of $1.4. Counting Arroyo at $10.5 and I get another $5 Million or so to spend off of the number shown.

RedLegSuperStar
08-09-2011, 07:30 PM
Nitpicking, but $5 Million of Arroyo's deal is deferred. If the Reds fund it from the 2012 budget, they probably pay around $3.5 Million of that or so. Rolen is at 7.8 and not 8.1. Chapman also has a bunch deferred and only will cost $2 Million in 2012. I'd guess Burton won't get offered a contract and Janish probably plays for a little over the minimum or he's gone too. Cots shows Alonso at $1 Million instead of $1.4. Counting Arroyo at $10.5 and I get another $5 Million or so to spend off of the number shown.

Was going to post this.. your always on it mth!

RedLegSuperStar
08-09-2011, 07:37 PM
I wouldn't be surprised to see Phillips sign a contract similar to Rolen and Arroyo where he gets a chunk differed. I also see either going with a in house committee for the closer role or perhaps bring back CoCo after declining his option at a lower rate.

This team doesn't have a lot of options as it looks for Free Agency so it will be something to watch and see if names like: Alonso, Sappelt, Heisey, Frazier, Francisco, Wood, Boxberger, Bailey, Volquez, etc.. get dangled for missing pieces.