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View Full Version : Fire Dusty, Hire Rick Sweet



Redlegs
08-09-2011, 04:52 PM
I think Dusty should be canned. He's supposed to be a motivator, but nobody looks motivated. Maybe it's time Rick Sweet gets a shot at managing at the MLB level. The kids we're getting from Louisville look more fundamentaly sound than the guys we got.

Dusty has turned me off with the way he's handled Yonder Alonso. We're out of the race. Put him out there and let him play. Period.

westofyou
08-09-2011, 04:52 PM
Dave Miley 2.0

Redlegs
08-09-2011, 04:55 PM
The talent on this team is far superior than anything Miley had to work with. I think Sweet deserves a shot.

WVRed
08-09-2011, 05:00 PM
Dave Miley 2.0

Took the words right out of my mouth.

_Sir_Charles_
08-09-2011, 05:01 PM
The talent on this team is far superior than anything Miley had to work with. I think Sweet deserves a shot.

I'm pretty sure that Rick Sweet WILL get his shot. But not yet. Dusty will finish out his contract...maybe even an extension. But eventually, Sweet will get his due.

The last thing I want to see is another revolving door in the manager's office. Some stability there is a good thing.

reds1869
08-09-2011, 05:06 PM
I'm pretty sure that Rick Sweet WILL get his shot. But not yet. Dusty will finish out his contract...maybe even an extension. But eventually, Sweet will get his due.

The last thing I want to see is another revolving door in the manager's office. Some stability there is a good thing.

I've come around to that line of thinking, too. I think Dusty has done pretty terribly this year but I don't think a revolving door is the answer. After all only last year we were singing the man's praises. Winning cures all and if the roster flaws are improved this team will win next year.

Always Red
08-09-2011, 05:19 PM
I want to see some continuity, both in the dugout and in the FO. That's how winning organizations are built, through years of vision and sticking to that vision and plan, not by changing all the bosses and parts and pieces every few years.

Roy Tucker
08-09-2011, 05:32 PM
Dusty is a player's manager and manages by relationships. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. Duagherty made a good comment saying that Dusty's lieutentants of Arthur Rhodes and Orlando Cabrera aren't here any more to re-enforce Dusty's messages. And Rolen is on the DL too much now.

Sometimes I think Dusty cares too much about his players and isn't ruthless enough. But you have to pick your poison sometimes. I'd like to see Dusty stay on another year. Use this year as a learning exercise.

TRF
08-09-2011, 05:37 PM
How about Walt Gets Dusty a LF, SS, 3B, 3 starting pitchers, one of them an ace please, and a leadoff hitter.

last time I checked, Dusty doesn't play a position or pitch.

Guacarock
08-09-2011, 05:51 PM
I'd like to see Joe Morgan managing the Reds -- someone who would be a "players' advocate," like Dusty, but has a broader grasp of the game's nuances and strategies.

I expect the Reds, though, will stay with Dusty through at least the first few months of 2012, although you never can tell. Jocketty plays his cards close to the vest, and the Reds have not just disappointed this season, they have looked downright lost and listless for awhile now.

dougdirt
08-09-2011, 06:18 PM
I'd like to see Joe Morgan managing the Reds -- someone who would be a "players' advocate," like Dusty, but has a broader grasp of the game's nuances and strategies.

I expect the Reds, though, will stay with Dusty through at least the first few months of 2012, although you never can tell. Jocketty plays his cards close to the vest, and the Reds have not just disappointed this season, they have looked downright lost and listless for awhile now.

I don't want Joe Morgan anywhere near this baseball team. His honorary role right now is enough to make me worry.

Guacarock
08-09-2011, 06:23 PM
I don't want Joe Morgan anywhere near this baseball team. His honorary role right now is enough to make me worry.

OK. Any particular reason why?

Caveat Emperor
08-09-2011, 06:23 PM
Dave Miley 2.0

/thread

Amazing how every bit of baseball acumen has apparently, in the minds of so many fans, deserted Dusty Baker in the span of 12 months.

Beloved in 2010, reviled in 2011 -- this city loves to eat it's own.

Raisor
08-09-2011, 06:32 PM
I'd like to see Joe Morgan managing the Reds -- someone who would be a "players' advocate," like Dusty, but has a broader grasp of the game's nuances and strategies.

.

Let Morgan take the Ryne Sandberg route and work in AAA for a few years.

Then let another team make him their manager.

Then he can come back and manage the Reds.

dougdirt
08-09-2011, 06:32 PM
/thread

Amazing how every bit of baseball acumen has apparently, in the minds of so many fans, deserted Dusty Baker in the span of 12 months.

Beloved in 2010, reviled in 2011 -- this city loves to eat it's own.

To be fair.... I didn't like Dusty in 2010 either.

I also don't believe for a second that any of us know enough about any managerial candidates to say we want them in here. I know that before I would say "oh yes, I really want that guy to manage my ballclub" that I would like to know answers to about 15-20 questions that I simply don't have the ability to ask any of those guys. I just know that from Dusty's actions, he doesn't agree with me on how to run a baseball team and I don't want him doing that for the team I root for.

Cedric
08-09-2011, 06:33 PM
/thread

Amazing how every bit of baseball acumen has apparently, in the minds of so many fans, deserted Dusty Baker in the span of 12 months.

Beloved in 2010, reviled in 2011 -- this city loves to eat it's own.

I don't think anyone here really beloved Dusty last year. He's just lucky that the rest of the league is full of Mike Singletarys and he mixes right in with them.

Major league managers as a whole are devoid of any baseball sense, IMO. Has been that way since the beginning of time. Baseball is so entrenched with archaic thinking that old timers like Dusty have no choice but to stay dumb.

dougdirt
08-09-2011, 06:35 PM
I don't think anyone here really beloved Dusty last year. He's just lucky that the rest of the league is full of Mike Singletarys and he mixes right in with them.

Major league managers as a whole are devoid of any baseball sense, IMO. Has been that way since the beginning of time. Baseball is so entrenched with archaic thinking that old timers like Dusty have no choice but to stay dumb.

This times 100. :thumbup:

reds44
08-09-2011, 06:36 PM
I'm good.

Cedric
08-09-2011, 06:37 PM
And I think it's absurd to stick to the status quo just because others have been as bad as Dusty. I want my favorite team to at least try and hire the next Joe Maddon and not just settle. I don't think that is asking for too much.

RedsManRick
08-09-2011, 06:41 PM
I'd like to see Joe Morgan managing the Reds -- someone who would be a "players' advocate," like Dusty, but has a broader grasp of the game's nuances and strategies.

What has Joe done to make anybody think he has a solid grasp of what baseball strategies maximize the productivity of his team? I mean, the man could hit, field and run like few others and I'm sure could provide a lot of insight on how to do those things well, but those aren't strategy.

And I'd happily take Davey Johnson back.

pedro
08-09-2011, 06:42 PM
There's not a baseball manager alive (or dead) that would have made a difference for the Reds this year.

westofyou
08-09-2011, 06:45 PM
Problem is ALL managers (even Joe Maddon) go by the book, they go by it because failure tends to ring hollow off moves that "are by the book" it's the managers who try new things (that mostly fail because the game is about failure more than success) that get a short leash.

Mostly because by the book provides them with protection from the pundits.

Caveat Emperor
08-09-2011, 07:00 PM
Problem is ALL managers (even Joe Maddon) go by the book, they go by it because failure tends to ring hollow off moves that "are by the book" it's the managers who try new things (that mostly fail because the game is about failure more than success) that get a short leash.

Mostly because by the book provides them with protection from the pundits.

I think it's even simpler than that -- it's really tough to work your way up to becoming a major league manager. The people that succeed in getting to that point are usually so awash in baseball groupthink by the time they hit the dugout that it's almost silly to expect anything beyond the book.

Most managers are a product of 30-40 years in baseball. It breeds a certain type of thinking by default.

HotCorner
08-09-2011, 07:02 PM
Mike Sarbaugh please.

Reds4Life
08-09-2011, 07:05 PM
Not a big Dusty fan, wasn't last year either, but the front office didn't exactly do much to improve the team during the offseason or at the deadline. Can't blame Dusty for that.

pedro
08-09-2011, 07:11 PM
I think it's even simpler than that -- it's really tough to work your way up to becoming a major league manager. The people that succeed in getting to that point are usually so awash in baseball groupthink by the time they hit the dugout that it's almost silly to expect anything beyond the book.

Most managers are a product of 30-40 years in baseball. It breeds a certain type of thinking by default.

Agreed. Further, most ballplayers aren't rocket scientists (or even sabremetricians) themselves and if a manager goes too far outside the box it might become hard to keep the confidence of the players, which is a big part of the job.

dougdirt
08-09-2011, 07:17 PM
Agreed. Further, most ballplayers aren't rocket scientists (or even sabremetricians) themselves and if a manager goes too far outside the box it might become hard to keep the confidence of the players, which is a big part of the job.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to explain or understand things. Most sabermetric stats have a simple way to explain them. The DIPS idea/formula has a lot of math that goes into it, but the theory behind it is rather simple to explain. Same for run expectancy matrixes. Sure, they are based on hundreds of thousands of plays, but its pretty simple to say "history says bunting here is a bad idea and that we would actually score more runs if we allowed you to take your normal plate approach here".

savafan
08-09-2011, 07:22 PM
There's not a baseball manager alive (or dead) that would have made a difference for the Reds this year.

I don't know, I think there are a lot of baseball managers who wouldn't bench a guy after a hot game, but it seems like Dusty has done that every chance he's had this year. When a guy is hot, you ride him out, but Dusty seems to think when a guy is playing well, he needs to sit. I don't understand that logic.

RedLegSuperStar
08-09-2011, 07:26 PM
Dave Martinez from the Rays is my 1st choice.. I hope he brings the beard too!

BuckeyeRedleg
08-09-2011, 07:34 PM
It's as simple as this, if the manager doesn't mean anything to the bottom line, why not hire a manager that makes a fraction of what Dusty makes? As I mentioned before all that money and he's still under .500 in Cincinnati.

And I was never of fan of his so this has nothing to do with this year. I just see this year as an excuse to finally get rid of him.

And like I've said a million times on this board, I really liked Pete Mackanin and see no good reason that he wasn't brought back. Oh well.

savafan
08-09-2011, 07:36 PM
And like I've said a million times on this board, I really liked Pete Mackanin and see no good reason that he wasn't brought back. Oh well.

To put it simply, I think Bob wanted a "name" manager to invigorate the fan base.

mth123
08-09-2011, 07:43 PM
Dusty drives me nuts, but IMO he's last in line of this brain trust that needs to go. The GM stuck him with question marks in the rotation a hole in the middle of the order and miscast players at the top. Walt should be the first to go IMO.

Beyond that, I'd say Price is as much to blame for the poor use of the pen and the pitching changes. Speier should have been there to stop things like forgetting the count and calling a squeeze with 2 strikes. Mark Berry is responsible for as many Reds making outs as the opposing pitching staff. This is a team full if Ryan Freels. Jacoby probably has less impact on the hitters, but somebody needs to tell Jay Bruce to hit the ball where its pitched instead of the pull & pop act he has much of the time (and don't get me started on Stubbs).

I'd back up the truck (Dusty included) myself, but of all of them, Dusty is the least bad.

Strikes Out Looking
08-09-2011, 07:52 PM
Dusty drives me nuts, but IMO he's last in line of this brain trust that needs to go. The GM stuck him with question marks in the rotation a hole in the middle of the order and miscast players at the top. Walt should be the first to go IMO.

Beyond that, I'd say Price is as much to blame for the poor use of the pen and the pitching changes. Speier should have been there to stop things like forgetting the count and calling a squeeze with 2 strikes. Mark Berry is responsible for as many Reds making outs as the opposing pitching staff. This is a team full if Ryan Freels. Jacoby probably has less impact on the hitters, but somebody needs to tell Jay Bruce to hit the ball where its pitched instead of the pull & pop act he has much of the time (and don't get me started on Stubbs).

I'd back up the truck (Dusty included) myself, but of all of them, Dusty is the least bad.

The only thing this team and Ryan Freel have in common is trips to the DL. A healthy Freel at the top of this team's order would have been a plus.

mth123
08-09-2011, 07:59 PM
The only thing this team and Ryan Freel have in common is trips to the DL. A healthy Freel at the top of this team's order would have been a plus.

He'd probably be better than the lead-off guys on board, but the stupid baserunning that was his trademark seems to be spread throughout this roster. He's easily one of the least baseball savvy players I've seen and this team is full of those.

Slyder
08-09-2011, 08:12 PM
I think Dusty should be canned. He's supposed to be a motivator, but nobody looks motivated. Maybe it's time Rick Sweet gets a shot at managing at the MLB level. The kids we're getting from Louisville look more fundamentaly sound than the guys we got.

Dusty has turned me off with the way he's handled Yonder Alonso. We're out of the race. Put him out there and let him play. Period.

If (and that by itself is a pretty big IF) If Dusty is canned I want this franchise to do a legitimate major league search. Not just hire the first guy you come across because he is already in house. If Sweet is the best candidate fine but I want to see them handle this with some thought out strategy. I know what I would like with this current roster and its about as yang to Dusty's yin as you can find.

Is that Rick Sweet? I don't know, I don't follow Louisville closely enough to know. I have said since we traded Dunn and Griffey for Masset and crap that I thought Dusty was a horrible fit for this team going young. He's too stuck on everyone having a role. To the detriment of some players he tries and makes guys into something they're not because of the dang roles. He runs the pen the same way.

Mario-Rijo
08-09-2011, 08:46 PM
It's as simple as this, if the manager doesn't mean anything to the bottom line, why not hire a manager that makes a fraction of what Dusty makes? As I mentioned before all that money and he's still under .500 in Cincinnati.

And I was never of fan of his so this has nothing to do with this year. I just see this year as an excuse to finally get rid of him.

And like I've said a million times on this board, I really liked Pete Mackanin and see no good reason that he wasn't brought back. Oh well.

Same here. Ya know his credentials have grown since he left, perhaps now he would be considered a big enough name. He did more with less than Baker before he had any big league coaching experience. Rick Sweet might be a good fit as well, I wouldn't be opposed to him.

I said last year this team won despite Dusty and now well he isn't helping the fact he doesn't have an ideal collection of players. Continues to allow service time to be too big a factor amongst other issues.

pedro
08-09-2011, 08:50 PM
To put it simply, I think Bob wanted a "name" manager to invigorate the fan base.

That's part of it.

You also just can't throw just anybody in there because whoever it is has to be capable of earning the respect of the players on the team. It's often easier for someone like Dusty, who has a track record and is well known, to do that.

Reds Freak
08-09-2011, 09:07 PM
I don't think anyone here really beloved Dusty last year. He's just lucky that the rest of the league is full of Mike Singletarys and he mixes right in with them.

Major league managers as a whole are devoid of any baseball sense, IMO. Has been that way since the beginning of time. Baseball is so entrenched with archaic thinking that old timers like Dusty have no choice but to stay dumb.

Perhaps you should submit your resume.

This is a bit over the top. There's a lot more that does on in a clubhouse and on the field that a manager has to deal with that those of us sitting in front of our computer screens have no idea about. Over a course of a 162 game season, you are going to have moves that aren't going to work out. I don't care who you are.

Unassisted
08-09-2011, 09:56 PM
If (and that by itself is a pretty big IF) If Dusty is canned I want this franchise to do a legitimate major league search.I doubt that will happen. Dusty will continue to be paid for the remainder of his contract. The Reds won't pay two big-ticket managers.

I don't want another Dave Miley, so ixnay on the AAA managers.

I want some more Pete Mackanin.

Wheelhouse
08-09-2011, 10:32 PM
Dave Miley 2.0 With the difference being the Reds are now without the Griffey/Dunn cancer--Sweet might do well.

batsfan
08-09-2011, 10:38 PM
I've wanted to see Sweet replace dusty for years! I also think that Corky Miller could come up and manage the reds or bats at any time - I think he is basically Sweet's bench coach right now.

westofyou
08-09-2011, 10:38 PM
With the difference being the Reds are now without the Griffey/Dunn cancer--Sweet might do well.


Or he might crap his pants.

We'll never know

KronoRed
08-09-2011, 10:39 PM
Dave Miley 2.0

Why even try a new guy? Miley is available, managing Scranton right now.

westofyou
08-09-2011, 10:39 PM
Why even try a new guy? Miley is available, managing Columbus right now.
But he has cancer... caught it from Dunn and Junior.

Probably from the chairs.

Ghosts of 1990
08-09-2011, 10:50 PM
/thread

Amazing how every bit of baseball acumen has apparently, in the minds of so many fans, deserted Dusty Baker in the span of 12 months.

Beloved in 2010, reviled in 2011 -- this city loves to eat it's own.

Dusty was one of the best managers in baseball in 2010. He deserved people saying that and going to bat for him to be manager of the year.

It's now 2011, and he's been one of the worst. I don't think there's anything wrong with calling it like it is.

It's time for Dusty to go. The game has passed him by. And in terms of Cincinnati eating it's own--you ought to spend some time in New York or a few other select spots where heads roll after seasons like this one--both players and manager/coach

Wheelhouse
08-09-2011, 11:05 PM
Or he might crap his pants.

We'll never know

True. But if things keep going the way they are, there is no way Dusty is back next season, 3MM owed notwithstanding. They will lose more than that in un-renewed season tickets if they don't show a field leadership change. And I bet his replacement is Joe Morgan. Morgan isn't hanging around with Jocketty every game because he likes his seats or enjoys being a special assistant...

Kc61
08-10-2011, 12:12 AM
Tonight, sixth inning, Reds down one. Two on. No out.

Razor is on second. Very slow.

Willis is up against a righty. Willis, a pitcher, hits very well. Lefty batter.

Bunt play. Hernandez out at third by a mile.

With one out given away, Reds do nothing.

Just a reflexive bunt call that was destined to fail with Razor on second.

Dusty's style of managing isn't working at all this year.

edabbs44
08-10-2011, 07:13 AM
Tonight, sixth inning, Reds down one. Two on. No out.

Razor is on second. Very slow.

Willis is up against a righty. Willis, a pitcher, hits very well. Lefty batter.

Bunt play. Hernandez out at third by a mile.

With one out given away, Reds do nothing.

Just a reflexive bunt call that was destined to fail with Razor on second.

Dusty's style of managing isn't working at all this year.

Dontrelle is a career .238 hitter. It was like having Janish bunt, not Votto.

Kc61
08-10-2011, 07:57 AM
Dontrelle is a career .238 hitter. It was like having Janish bunt, not Votto.

With Razor on second that bunt was destined to fail.

And it failed by a mile.

Unassisted
08-10-2011, 08:02 AM
If the Reds change managers now, it appears they're making Joe Morgan the replacement. If you don't want Joe Morgan, then you don't want to change managers now.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-10-2011, 08:12 AM
I'm not sure I get the fascination with Morgan. Is this just the insecure front office needing a "name" again? Haven't they learned?

bucksfan2
08-10-2011, 08:43 AM
Tonight, sixth inning, Reds down one. Two on. No out.

Razor is on second. Very slow.

Willis is up against a righty. Willis, a pitcher, hits very well. Lefty batter.

Bunt play. Hernandez out at third by a mile.

With one out given away, Reds do nothing.

Just a reflexive bunt call that was destined to fail with Razor on second.

Dusty's style of managing isn't working at all this year.

Every manager in the NL bunts there. Its as simple as executing the play rather than saying it was a bad managerial decision.

If Willis gets the bunt a little further up the line then its a heck of a sacrifice. If the pitcher at the time doesn't make a good play its 2 and 3 with 1 out.

Willis is a heck of a hitting pitcher, but he still is a pitcher. I agree with Ed here, it would be akin to Janish at the plate.

hebroncougar
08-10-2011, 08:51 AM
Don't forget..........in May, Dusty exclaimed, This is MY kind of team!

Guacarock
08-10-2011, 09:23 AM
What has Joe done to make anybody think he has a solid grasp of what baseball strategies maximize the productivity of his team? I mean, the man could hit, field and run like few others and I'm sure could provide a lot of insight on how to do those things well, but those aren't strategy.

And I'd happily take Davey Johnson back.

You've said it here, the man could hit, field and run like few others, and so could presumably relay those all-important fundamentals to the players. We also know from his broadcast days and his articles and book (Baseball for Dummies) that he's a good communicator and has a solid grasp of baseball strategies.

I think where he's lacking, and why we saw some groans from select Redszoners at the mention of his name, is in the sabermetrics arena. That's fair. He's probably not the world's best number cruncher. But I would submit that the team would not necessarily be well-served by a stat-head as the manager.

The Reds could certainly use a Bill James type in the fold to advise the manager and coaches on the wonders of sabermetrics, working the best odds, the splits, etc. But a manager's duties are more encompassing than that -- he needs to be a leader, a motivator, to bear responsibility, to be fair, to gain the players' trust and respect. I'm not saying a geek can't do those things, but most of them I've known can't. Just not part of their wiring.

Ghosts of 1990
08-10-2011, 10:33 AM
Replacement won't be Morgan. No reason for him to take on a managerial job. No way. Dusty and he are tight, just another reason he won't do it. He's not gonna get into the travel of a big league managerial job at his age for the first time. Dusty will be replaced, but it won't be Morgan.

mbgrayson
08-10-2011, 11:45 AM
Tonight, sixth inning, Reds down one. Two on. No out.

Razor is on second. Very slow.

Willis is up against a righty. Willis, a pitcher, hits very well. Lefty batter.

Bunt play. Hernandez out at third by a mile.

With one out given away, Reds do nothing.

Just a reflexive bunt call that was destined to fail with Razor on second.

Dusty's style of managing isn't working at all this year.

Agreed.

We've had the discussion about bunting many times, but bunting just gives away outs.

BTW: Dontrelle is hitting .400/.400/.800 for a 1.200 OPS this year, limited sample size. At the least, he is a hot hitter right now. And even if it was Janish, I wouldn't have bunted in that situation.

With runners on 1st and second with none out, there is a run expectancy of 1.4693. That is on average, MLB teams score 1.4693 runs in innings that had that configuration.

IF the bunt works, you would have had runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out. That has a run expectancy of 1.4144.

So in essence, Dusty took a risk that IF it had paid off, would have reduced the number of runs the Reds likely to score.

As we know through hindsight, the bunt failed. So we end up with runners on 1st and 2nd, one out. The run expectancy for that is 0.9143.

You also look at who would be up next if the bunt works. We would have had Sappelt up, and as much as I like him, he isn't Joey Votto. On the other hand, if Votto had been on deck, the Rockies would just walk him.

I just hate wasting outs, especially in the 6th inning. That could have been a huge inning if Willis has another hit there....

kaldaniels
08-10-2011, 11:55 AM
Over the past few weeks a recurring theme on here is that Walt and Dusty are at odds, which I can see.

So that said, bright minds of Redszone, this is not a what do you want question, but a what will happen question...

What are the chances Dusty is fired after the season?

dman
08-10-2011, 08:57 PM
/thread

Amazing how every bit of baseball acumen has apparently, in the minds of so many fans, deserted Dusty Baker in the span of 12 months.

Beloved in 2010, reviled in 2011 -- this city loves to eat it's own.


Dusty had nothing to do with the Reds winning the division last year. There was a compilation of things that broke in the Reds' direction, but Dusty's managerial skills were not one of them.... He just happened to be the skipper at the helm during a perfect storm.... somewhat.

To me, that team last year won in spite of Dusty. This year, with injuries, lack of some key clubhouse leaders, and a few other things, Dusty is still making many of the managerial snafus that he was making last year, it's just they're magnified now, along with the division being a little bit better than it was last year.

Dusty is still the same manager that he was while he was the skipper for San Francisco and Chicago, making the same managerial blunders, along with the fact that what was hexing the Cardinals last year is hexing the Reds this year.... they can't beat the teams that they should be beating.

Cincinnati should be calling for Dusty's firing. I can't figure out why he was so beloved in the first place.

nate
08-10-2011, 09:29 PM
You've said it here, the man could hit, field and run like few others, and so could presumably relay those all-important fundamentals to the players. We also know from his broadcast days and his articles and book (Baseball for Dummies) that he's a good communicator and has a solid grasp of baseball strategies.

To me, I know from his broadcast days and articles and book(s) that he does not have a solid grasp of baseball strategies. Yes, I understand the likely appeal to authority argument this invites to which I say, what would Joe do that's dramatically different than what Dusty's done? They're contemporaries.


I think where he's lacking, and why we saw some groans from select Redszoners at the mention of his name, is in the sabermetrics arena. That's fair. He's probably not the world's best number cruncher. But I would submit that the team would not necessarily be well-served by a stat-head as the manager.

Don't we have a "non stat-head" right now?

Have the Reds ever really had a "stat-head?"


The Reds could certainly use a Bill James type in the fold to advise the manager and coaches on the wonders of sabermetrics, working the best odds, the splits, etc. But a manager's duties are more encompassing than that -- he needs to be a leader, a motivator, to bear responsibility, to be fair, to gain the players' trust and respect. I'm not saying a geek can't do those things, but most of them I've known can't. Just not part of their wiring.

Namecalling aside, you've just described exactly what Dusty was supposed to bring to the table. A leader. A motivator. One who bears responsibility (I think he does this well, actually.) Someone who gains the player's trust and respect.

To me, Joe Morgan is Dusty^2.

edabbs44
08-10-2011, 10:03 PM
Agreed.

We've had the discussion about bunting many times, but bunting just gives away outs.

BTW: Dontrelle is hitting .400/.400/.800 for a 1.200 OPS this year, limited sample size. At the least, he is a hot hitter right now. And even if it was Janish, I wouldn't have bunted in that situation.

With runners on 1st and second with none out, there is a run expectancy of 1.4693. That is on average, MLB teams score 1.4693 runs in innings that had that configuration.

IF the bunt works, you would have had runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out. That has a run expectancy of 1.4144.

So in essence, Dusty took a risk that IF it had paid off, would have reduced the number of runs the Reds likely to score.

As we know through hindsight, the bunt failed. So we end up with runners on 1st and 2nd, one out. The run expectancy for that is 0.9143.

You also look at who would be up next if the bunt works. We would have had Sappelt up, and as much as I like him, he isn't Joey Votto. On the other hand, if Votto had been on deck, the Rockies would just walk him.

I just hate wasting outs, especially in the 6th inning. That could have been a huge inning if Willis has another hit there....

I think posts like these (and this isn't the only one) fail to take into account the fact that there was a pitcher up. You can't compare the odds of the current situation against the situation if the bunt works. It should be the situation if the bunt works versus the situation if he swings away and makes an out, which is the likely result no matter what he is doing this season.

WVRedsFan
08-11-2011, 12:14 AM
Dave Miley 2.0
Yep. Back to the lost years. The team is on the right track and if some needed changes were made and the front office didn't put so must trust in a loose cannon pitcher, an enemic hitting shortstop, and a screwed up left files we would be in business. An infusion of real MLB starting pitching and some punch from anyone other than Votto, Bruce, and Phillips is all that's needed. That's not Dusty's fault.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-11-2011, 12:14 AM
Dusty had nothing to do with the Reds winning the division last year. There was a compilation of things that broke in the Reds' direction, but Dusty's managerial skills were not one of them.... He just happened to be the skipper at the helm during a perfect storm.... somewhat.

To me, that team last year won in spite of Dusty. This year, with injuries, lack of some key clubhouse leaders, and a few other things, Dusty is still making many of the managerial snafus that he was making last year, it's just they're magnified now, along with the division being a little bit better than it was last year.

Dusty is still the same manager that he was while he was the skipper for San Francisco and Chicago, making the same managerial blunders, along with the fact that what was hexing the Cardinals last year is hexing the Reds this year.... they can't beat the teams that they should be beating.

Cincinnati should be calling for Dusty's firing. I can't figure out why he was so beloved in the first place.

Great post dman!

WVRedsFan
08-11-2011, 12:24 AM
And let me clarify....I'm no Dusty Baker fan, but no one could win with the performance we've seen from the pitching staff and the offense. He drives me crazy with the constant bunting and the same relievers and starters being left in too long. And the question always comes to mind...who would replace him anyway? That would be better? Or that wouldn't get the same reaction given the present personnel?

toledodan
08-11-2011, 06:38 AM
After all only last year we were singing the man's praises.


not me.

membengal
08-11-2011, 06:48 AM
Just out of curiosity, just because Miley was a spectacular failure, Sweet would be?

Why can't someone just as easily say...Sparky Anderson 2.0?

Pointing to one predecessor as being representative for why Sweet wouldn't succeed is kinda lazy, frankly.

westofyou
08-11-2011, 10:13 AM
Just out of curiosity, just because Miley was a spectacular failure, Sweet would be?

Why can't someone just as easily say...Sparky Anderson 2.0?

Pointing to one predecessor as being representative for why Sweet wouldn't succeed is kinda lazy, frankly.

Maybe it's Vern Rapp 2.0 or Les Moss 2.0 or Tim Johnson 2.0

Not many AAA guys these days jumping directly into the managers seat without doing some time in the bigs first.

As for lazy thinking perhaps, but from my POV it's wishful thinking to think that it's an easy move.

But then again I get the vibe that Dusty doesn't do anything in many peoples eyes anyway.

To me that's lazy.

membengal
08-11-2011, 01:05 PM
I have not weighed in on the dusty thing, so not sure if that was aimed at me. I am just saying, if dusty were to go I don't think sweet should necessarily be dismissed as Miley or rapp 2.0.

Sweet has done a nice job with players progressing and developing under his watch. I have no idea where a theoretical replacement search would take the reds, but I would hope sweet would at least get a hypothetical interview.

westofyou
08-11-2011, 02:07 PM
I have not weighed in on the dusty thing, so not sure if that was aimed at me. I am just saying, if dusty were to go I don't think sweet should necessarily be dismissed as Miley or rapp 2.0.

Sweet has done a nice job with players progressing and developing under his watch. I have no idea where a theoretical replacement search would take the reds, but I would hope sweet would at least get a hypothetical interview.

Not aimed at anyone in particular, it's just that my take is that guys that are good at developing are not an exact fit in MLB for that reason, by the time these guys get to the bigs I don't expect them to develop, I expect them to lead, coddle, manipulate and stroke guys, teaching is a nice role, but I just don't see it as a criteria for a MLB manager these days.

All the (non strategy) stuff said about Sweet was/is pretty much said about Dusty too, and I'm including all the years I watched him manage in the Bay Area.

Strikes Out Looking
08-11-2011, 02:12 PM
I'm agnostic on Dusty. I think we know his strengths and his weaknesses.

As to Rick Sweet -- I'm not sure I'd want to have the manager of this team be a first time major league manager. If the Reds were rebuilding, I'd say yes, but I don't think they are rebuilding and I'd like some one with experience.

I really think the problems are with the players inability to adjust and I do not know how to fix that or if it is fixable.

bucksfan2
08-11-2011, 03:40 PM
I don't really have a problem with Dusty. I don't think he is great nor do I think he is terrible. The age old quote describes how I feel about managers "You get too much credit when you win and too much blame when you lose." I don't really blame Dusty for by my count 6 players (Votto, Phillips, Hernandez, Bray, Leake and Cueto) playing up to their expectations this season. You could throw Chapman in there but he did have a horrendous stretch in the middle of the season. If anything Dusty has stuck with his players, young players, longer than he should have.

remdog
08-11-2011, 04:32 PM
Don't ya' think that someone like Kirk Gibbson would have lit a fire under these players' butts? I do. And I think that that is exactly what this team needs.

This team has a lot of talent----just no one that knows how to channel it.

Rem

Team Clark
08-11-2011, 06:06 PM
Billy Hatcher will get a shot before Rick Sweet. Write it down in pen. Lol

*BaseClogger*
08-11-2011, 07:17 PM
Does anybody have the domain rights to HireJoeMorgan.com (http://hirejoemorgan.com/)?