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View Full Version : Your comfort level with Cozart (non-poll poll)



IslandRed
08-11-2011, 06:02 PM
Last offseason, the Reds thought they had a guy who could hold down shortstop in Janish. But they weren't real sure about it, thus the veteran insurance of Renteria. (And, of course, there were plenty of people here on RedsZone who had serious doubts about either, or both.) In the event, neither of them could hit water falling out of a boat, thus the clamor for Cozart. Cozart came up and looked decent in what unfortunately turned out to be a limited sample.

So, as the outlook turns to the 2012 Reds, what is your comfort level with Cozart? Are you okay with counting on him as the starter, or do you still consider it a priority for the Reds to upgrade with a proven guy from the outside? (By proven, I don't mean "proven, but he isn't that guy anymore" e.g. Renteria, I mean a guy who's still a viable regular.) In other words, without the benefit of hindsight, are you more likely to:

1) Criticize the acquisition of a shortstop because it'll take up payroll that could have gone somewhere else, since we have a cheap alternative on hand that looks like he can do the job; or

2) Criticize the organization for not acquiring a shortstop because you don't believe Cozart is the answer and we'll be right back where we were this year?

Reds/Flyers Fan
08-11-2011, 06:13 PM
I am completely comfortable with Cozart as the everyday SS next year if, and only if, the Reds adequately address the LF situation and bring in a legitimate cleanup hitter.

But regardless of what transpires, in no way shape or form should Paul Janish be counted upon next year. I wouldn't even have him on the roster as a backup. He offers absolutely nothing offensively (he should hit 9th behind D-Train, Leake, Arroyo without a doubt) and his defense is both overrated and somewhat easily replaced.

Orenda
08-11-2011, 06:26 PM
I think he will make sense for a time. I'd project 260/310/410 for him with a solid glove, but it wouldn't surprise me if he OPS'd 750 or higher. That won't blow people away but you can spend more and do much worse at shortstop. They should free up resources for other areas imo

SirFelixCat
08-11-2011, 06:38 PM
I am completely comfortable with Cozart as the everyday SS next year if, and only if, the Reds adequately address the LF situation and bring in a legitimate cleanup hitter.


This.

Or the rumored trade of Bautista for Votto, which opens up 1B for Alonso. In that case, I'd also be perfectly fine w/ Cozart @ SS.

RedsManRick
08-11-2011, 06:43 PM
I would feel completely comfortable with Cozart as our opening day SS. He's not all star, but I think he could be awfully similar to JJ Hardy.

corkedbat
08-11-2011, 06:50 PM
I agree with most. I'm fine with Zach as the everyday SS. At the very least, I think he'd be a decent eight hole hitter. If a bett option comes along, then by all means, jump on it, but for now, I would put SS fourth in the pecking order behind a power-hitting LF, a TOR SP and a young 3B - resources would be better spent addressing those needs, IMO.

Will M
08-11-2011, 07:32 PM
question: is he going to be physically ready to play SS opening day? if so then i am fine with him as the everyday SS.

mth123
08-11-2011, 07:52 PM
I'm fine with Cozart. The Reds have bigger fish to fry. If they could get a middle of the order bat to play SS, then go get it. Otherwise, Cozart with Janish backing him up is fine. Use the money on impact stuff. Don't need another Renteria, Cabrera or Gonzalez at this point.

Blitz Dorsey
08-11-2011, 08:34 PM
I'm very confident in Cozart. He won't be Barry Larkin, but I do think he'll hold down the starting SS job for the foreseeable future. Not spectacular by any means, but is solid in every area.

I for one never thought Janish would end up winning the starting job long-term. I don't look for the team to bring in an "expensive" backup like Renteria this offseason. I think Cozart will be the starter and they can still use Janish as the backup if they want. I don't mind Soft J as a backup, but he should never be considered for a starting role ever again (sans injuries to players ahead of him like right now).

Will M
08-11-2011, 09:03 PM
I'm very confident in Cozart. He won't be Barry Larkin, but I do think he'll hold down the starting SS job for the foreseeable future. Not spectacular by any means, but is solid in every area.

I for one never thought Janish would end up winning the starting job long-term. I don't look for the team to bring in an "expensive" backup like Renteria this offseason. I think Cozart will be the starter and they can still use Janish as the backup if they want. I don't mind Soft J as a backup, but he should never be considered for a starting role ever again (sans injuries to players ahead of him like right now).

ideally find a lefty hitting 2B/SS or 2B/SS/3B as a backup. Janish can be a replacement level guy stashed in AAA in the case of an emergency.

Scrap Irony
08-11-2011, 09:03 PM
Cozart should provide at least a league average SS glove and, with his power, will OPS at least the league average SS (). Assuming Janish backs him up, their overall SS spot should be above average.

That, for league minimum, is great value.

It's also an easy choice to keep Cozart as the starter while looking for that TOR starter.

Homer Bailey
08-11-2011, 09:57 PM
I'm very comfortable with Cozart. You might even say that I'm "cozy".

Yeah, I did (unfortunately).

wlf WV
08-12-2011, 01:31 AM
Can Alonso play SS?:) Yes,but I too worry about his elbow.Hope he heals better than Doug did.What do you think Doug?

fearofpopvol1
08-12-2011, 03:33 AM
I'm very comfortable, but I fear his TJ surgery will prompt Walt to go out and find another aging SS just in case. I hope not though.

Ron Madden
08-12-2011, 05:36 AM
I'd be more comfortable with Cozart at SS on Opening Day than the likes of Renteria, OCab, or AGON. I don't know if he will be as good offensively over a full season as he was in his short time before injury in 2011 but I'd rather take my chances with him than another thirty-something SS with little to no range defensively.

mth123
08-12-2011, 06:30 AM
I'd be more comfortable with Cozart at SS on Opening Day than the likes of Renteria, OCab, or AGON. I don't know if he will be as good offensively over a full season as he was in his short time before injury in 2011 but I'd rather take my chances with him than another thirty-something SS with little to no range defensively.

I am fairly certain he won't be as good, but an OPS in the .675 to .725 range is a reasonable expectation and that is a far cry more than anyone should have ever expected from Paul Janish coming into 2011. My expectations for Janish were below .600 with .625 being the top in an every day role. Janish fooled everyone with his decent success in limited time last year and it seems many, including our celebrated GM, assumed that was something he could sustain with every day play. Seems silly when one of the knocks on him his entire career is that he wears down when he's out there all the time. There was a lot of reason to call for help from the outside coming into 2011.

This year, Cozart will be coming into the season having shown more pop, more speed and better overall hitting as a minor leaguer (especially in the upper minors) than Janish ever did. Couple that with Janish in a limited role for a game here and there or for a short stretch while Cozart is dinged up and there is reason to expect better production all around. These guys will not be world beaters. There is no reason to expect Tulo, Hanley, Rollins or Reyes style production, but at this point there are holes to fill on this team that will not be addressed by doing anything at SS. Whatever type of trading capital and dollars are to be expended should go toward a proven starter with enough juice to be a pitcher a team would feel good about starting a play-off game (even if its not game 1) and somebody to hit 4th or 5th unless some miracle allows Alonso to be that guy with Votto and Bruce. The defense at SS will be more than adequate and the offense will be acceptable.

cumberlandreds
08-12-2011, 07:36 AM
Fairly comfortable. Sure would have liked to have seen him for two months instead of the eleven games he got into. Very hard to make a really good judgement on 11 games. I think this injury insured that Jocketty will go out and get a veteran SS for next season as a backup.

bucksfan2
08-12-2011, 08:59 AM
In the little I saw of Cozart I was impressed. To me he seems like an ideal 2 hole hitter. A guy with a little bit of pop and good with the bat. He is a guy who wasn't overpowered during his first run around in the big leagues. He impressed me with this bat, defense, and poise.

I think he could be a good long term solution to the Reds SS position. He isn't a guy who will wow you like Reyes, Tulo, or Hanley but he is a guy who will provide some value but won't hurt you in either the field or at the plate.

oneupper
08-12-2011, 09:06 AM
Fairly comfortable. Sure would have liked to have seen him for two months instead of the eleven games he got into. Very hard to make a really good judgement on 11 games. I think this injury insured that Jocketty will go out and get a veteran SS for next season as a backup.

Not a lot of options out there for SS. Reyes (too expensive). Furcal (too injured, too old?), plus several that are likely to stay put (Rollins, Scutaro). You probably keep Janish as an inexpensive backup. He's proven more than willing to fill in at 2B and 3B, too.
Cozart and Janish is kind of scary, but the options are slim. Maybe Renteria again? (ouch).

cumberlandreds
08-12-2011, 09:08 AM
Not a lot of options out there for SS. Reyes (too expensive). Furcal (too injured, too old?), plus several that are likely to stay put (Rollins, Scutaro). You probably keep Janish as an inexpensive backup. He's proven more than willing to fill in at 2B and 3B, too.
Cozart and Janish is kind of scary, but the options are slim. Maybe Renteria again? (ouch).

Could be Cabrera again too?

oneupper
08-12-2011, 09:13 AM
Could be Cabrera again too?

Chemistry on the cheap! :)

PuffyPig
08-12-2011, 09:37 AM
In the little I saw of Cozart I was impressed. To me he seems like an ideal 2 hole hitter.

I don't know about #2.

He doesn't walk much, or get on base. He hasn't walked in the majors yet.

He strikes out quite a bit. His speed looks good.

He's likely to hit about .250-.260 and will struggle to have his OBA stay above .300. He should be good for 10-12 HR's per season too.

I'd say he's a guy you bury at #8 and hope he doesn't hurt you too much. I certainly wouldn't want him getting the 2nd most AB's on the team.

Redsfan320
08-12-2011, 09:50 AM
Here are your FA SS options for next year, thanks to MLBTR.

Clint Barmes (33)
Yuniesky Betancourt (30) - $6MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Orlando Cabrera (37)
Jamey Carroll (37)
Ronny Cedeno (29) - $3MM club option with a $200K buyout
Craig Counsell (41)
Rafael Furcal (34) - $12MM club option with a $1.3MM buyout
Alex Gonzalez (34)
Jerry Hairston Jr. (36)
Omar Infante (30)
Cesar Izturis (32)
Julio Lugo (36)
John McDonald (37)
Augie Ojeda (37)
Nick Punto (34)
Edgar Renteria (35)
Jose Reyes (29)
Jimmy Rollins (33)
Ramon Santiago (32)
Marco Scutaro (36) - $6MM club option/$3MM player option with a $1.5MM buyout
Miguel Tejada (38)
Jack Wilson (34)

320

dougdirt
08-12-2011, 12:47 PM
I think he will make sense for a time. I'd project 260/310/410 for him with a solid glove, but it wouldn't surprise me if he OPS'd 750 or higher. That won't blow people away but you can spend more and do much worse at shortstop. They should free up resources for other areas imo

This is pretty much how I feel. Bat him 7th and he is going to be an asset. If he starts to outperform that line, which I think he could but I wouldn't exactly count on it either, then you can move him up in the lineup.

dougdirt
08-12-2011, 12:49 PM
I don't know about #2.

He doesn't walk much, or get on base. He hasn't walked in the majors yet.

He strikes out quite a bit. His speed looks good.

He's likely to hit about .250-.260 and will struggle to have his OBA stay above .300. He should be good for 10-12 HR's per season too.

I'd say he's a guy you bury at #8 and hope he doesn't hurt you too much. I certainly wouldn't want him getting the 2nd most AB's on the team.

He doesn't strike out quite a bit. Not sure where you got that idea from.

He doesn't walk much though, which is why he shouldn't be batting higher than 6th-7th though. I think you are underestimating his power. He is a 15-20 HR guy.

Roy Tucker
08-12-2011, 01:51 PM
Worries me a smidge that he had no BBs in 38 PAs, but his walk rate was decent in the minors so I guess its just a blip on the curve.

My discomfort is less with him than Janish coming into this season. But I would say I'm comfortable.

PuffyPig
08-12-2011, 02:08 PM
He doesn't strike out quite a bit. Not sure where you got that idea from.

He doesn't walk much though, which is why he shouldn't be batting higher than 6th-7th though. I think you are underestimating his power. He is a 15-20 HR guy.

His K-rate everywhere he's been as been about 16-17%, which equates to >100 for a full season. And more than Janish has generally done at any level. More than 100 is quite a bit. Perhaps watching Stubbs and Dunn has moved our levels of what striking out a lot means.

HR's; I see him more as a 10-15 guy, but you are correct, he might be good for more.

I see him hitting 8th for a team with a decent offense. His low OBA certainly doesn't play any higher.

bucksfan2
08-12-2011, 02:47 PM
Worries me a smidge that he had no BBs in 38 PAs, but his walk rate was decent in the minors so I guess its just a blip on the curve.

My discomfort is less with him than Janish coming into this season. But I would say I'm comfortable.

It didn't really bother me. Pitchers may be attacking him because he is a rookie and there really isn't a book on him. If he is getting a lot of pitches over the fat part of the plate then I would want him swinging away. If he proves power or to be a good hitter then they will begin to nibble more and it will lead to more walks.

Rojo
08-12-2011, 02:48 PM
I like Cozart. But with Rolen questionable, I think you have to sign a vet infielder this winter.

dougdirt
08-12-2011, 03:06 PM
His K-rate everywhere he's been as been about 16-17%, which equates to >100 for a full season. And more than Janish has generally done at any level. More than 100 is quite a bit. Perhaps watching Stubbs and Dunn has moved our levels of what striking out a lot means.

HR's; I see him more as a 10-15 guy, but you are correct, he might be good for more.

I see him hitting 8th for a team with a decent offense. His low OBA certainly doesn't play any higher.

It was under 15% in AAA this year, but lets just assume its 16-17%.... That puts him in line with Fred Lewis and Joey Votto.

PuffyPig
08-12-2011, 03:10 PM
It was under 15% in AAA this year, but lets just assume its 16-17%.... That puts him in line with Fred Lewis and Joey Votto.


That's the only time in his career it was under 16%, and it's less than half a year.

Votto and Lewis strike out quite a bit. 100 times a season is quite a bit. Of course Votto walks a ton, and deap counts mean increased strike outs. Cozart strikes out without the benefit of a lot of walks.

dougdirt
08-12-2011, 03:17 PM
That's the only time in his career it was under 16%, and it's less than half a year.

Votto and Lewis strike out quite a bit. 100 times a season is quite a bit. Of course Votto walks a ton, and deap counts mean increased strike outs. Cozart strikes out without the benefit of a lot of walks.

Eh, Cozart walks about half as often as he strikes out.

And 17% is about average. In 2010 there were 205 players with at least 400 PA in the Majors. The players at #102 and #103 on the strikeout % list struck out 16.2% of the time.

Scrap Irony
08-12-2011, 03:26 PM
If Cozart bats 8th, he'll be better than almost all other 8th place hitters.

If he bats, 7th, he'll be about league average.

If he bats anywhere else, he'll be lucky to be average.

With the lineup the Reds should put together in 2012, it's a good bet he'll be the worst everyday hitter on the team.

lollipopcurve
08-12-2011, 03:28 PM
Very comfortable with Cozart at this point. I think he's got solid tools across the board and good instincts.

dougdirt
08-12-2011, 03:43 PM
With the lineup the Reds should put together in 2012, it's a good bet he'll be the worst everyday hitter on the team.

If that is the case, then the Reds offense will be very strong.

fearofpopvol1
08-12-2011, 03:55 PM
That's the only time in his career it was under 16%, and it's less than half a year.

Votto and Lewis strike out quite a bit. 100 times a season is quite a bit. Of course Votto walks a ton, and deap counts mean increased strike outs. Cozart strikes out without the benefit of a lot of walks.

100 times per season, while not low, is not that many either. It's probably around average.

Also, I see the Dusty batting ZC leadoff if we don't have a leadoff hitter and 2nd if we do have one.

Scrap Irony
08-12-2011, 05:56 PM
If that is the case, then the Reds offense will be very strong.

Who projects poorer?

Mario-Rijo
08-12-2011, 06:24 PM
I like Cozart. But with Rolen questionable, I think you have to sign a vet infielder this winter.

Omar Infante is a great fit. Can play all around the IF and even LF in a pinch and is a solid hitter for average, even though he isn't the greatest at taking a walk. He would be a nice #2 hitter playing all over including SS. And I would ideally work Cozart in semi-slowly for a few months at SS. But I have no qualms with just letting Cozart run with it either, he is gonna have some struggles for awhile but that is the nature of relying on youth, gotta live thru their struggles.

dougdirt
08-12-2011, 11:48 PM
Who projects poorer?

Rolen? Phillips? I could see Cozart out hitting both of them next year.

Mario-Rijo
08-13-2011, 10:26 AM
Rolen? Phillips? I could see Cozart out hitting both of them next year.

I like Cozart but I'd take that bet with BP in a heartbeat.

Scrap Irony
08-13-2011, 11:31 AM
I would with Rolen as well. Sure, the guy doesn't belong in the cleanup spot, but he's a better hitter than Cozart.

Regardless, the Red offense, with Cozart, looks to have above average performers at every spot aside from perhaps LF and 3B.

Add a bench that should prove exceptional and all the Reds need focus on is pretty much the entire pitching staff.

(Snicker.)

dougdirt
08-13-2011, 11:35 AM
I would with Rolen as well. Sure, the guy doesn't belong in the cleanup spot, but he's a better hitter than Cozart.

Regardless, the Red offense, with Cozart, looks to have above average performers at every spot aside from perhaps LF and 3B.

Add a bench that should prove exceptional and all the Reds need focus on is pretty much the entire pitching staff.

(Snicker.)

If I were to bet, I would take your side. But at the same time, I think Cozart could be a .750 OPS guy next year too. And well, that is better than Rolen this year by far and right in line with Phillips who isn't getting any younger. Like I said, I could see it. Doesn't mean I think its very likely to happen.

Scrap Irony
08-13-2011, 07:19 PM
And I'm with you as well.

I could see Cozart go all late-career Nomar Garciaparra offensively.

But, more than likely, he'll OPS from 675 - 725 with good pop, a few BBs (more if he hits 8th), and good defense at SS. Rolen should hit a bit better than that (715 - 765 range).

fearofpopvol1
04-11-2012, 02:34 PM
I know it's a young season (and career), but Cozart has impressed the heck out of me not only with the glove, but the bat too. What's crazy is in his young major league career, he's hit in 15 out of 17 games!!

So to answer the question in this thread, my comfort level is completely fine!

RedlegJake
04-11-2012, 03:15 PM
I've been a Cozart fan since he hit AAA. Color me impressed but expecting this.

oneupper
04-11-2012, 03:39 PM
I'm Cozy with Cozart. :D

medford
04-11-2012, 03:57 PM
I didn't see this thread the first time around, but I'll say here what I would have said then and what I've said in the minor league forum. I've been a big fan of Cozart since I saw him play for the Dragons. My wife's friend got tickets from work shortly after our son was born. She told us to get the heck out of the house, gave us the tickets and watched our son while we took in the game/dinner. Cozart had the rep as an all glove-no stick SS, and even then, its not like his glove rep was over the top, just a guy they thought could stick there if his bat took him to the majors. I didn't get to see him doing anything but the routine in the field that night, but at the plate he impressed me greatly. I think he picked up 2 hits (single/double), moved the runner over on a hit into the 2b hole, and struk out the other plate apperance that we saw. But it wasn't the single, or the double or the hit to the right side of the infield to move the runner to 3rd that impressed me specifically, it was his approach at the plate. Each time up, he appeared to be a guy that knew what he could do, and what he should do each time up at the plate depending on the situation. No swinging from the heels, no chasing balls out of the zone, fouling off a couple of pitches on the edges with 2 strikes, etc... I came away thinking Cozart's approach was exactly what I'd like to see out of my 2 hole hitter and was certain he had a great shot at making and sticking in the show in a few seasons.

I believe Cozart saw some struggles the following season, but from that point forward has been rock steady at every step along the way. I was perfectly comfortable (assuming he was 100% recovered from his injury) w/ handing him the SS job and the 2 hole job. I really don't think what he's done in his limited ML time to date is a fluke. Sure he'll see some struggles as the book gets out on him more and more, but I don't think he's going to be the kind of guy that goes into prolonged slumps.

reds1869
04-11-2012, 04:01 PM
I'm very happy with Cozart. Even though his current tear is not sustainable he is such a breath of fresh air when you think about our recent shortstops.

Vottomatic
04-11-2012, 07:03 PM
I'm very happy with Cozart. Even though his current tear is not sustainable he is such a breath of fresh air when you think about our recent shortstops.

Well said.

I don't expect him to sustain it. But he's solid defensively and makes things happen offensively. Maybe he comes crashing hard back down to earth. I think he can be solid.

He's a breathe of fresh air, IMHO.

dougdirt
04-11-2012, 07:12 PM
I am fairly comfortable with Cozart. Defensively, he is going to be good. Offensively, so far he has been great, but I see him as more of a .275-280 type of hitter with some good pop for shortstop.

lollipopcurve
04-11-2012, 07:36 PM
Very, very comfortable. He looks to be the kind of player who keeps getting better. Tremendous baseball IQ. He's a keeper.

RANDY IN INDY
04-12-2012, 02:43 PM
Really impressed with Cozart defensively. Sure hands and just made a great play to save a run against the Nats.

RedEye
04-12-2012, 03:39 PM
Seems to be a solid addition. Kudos to Buckley and the farm system for drafting and developing him. I recall at the time of the draft not many were too excited about him. IIRC, he profiled as a decent-fielding, light-hitting middle infielder -- solid all-around prospect, but most thought they took him too high. I think it is safe to say that those critics were wrong, since the Reds got a major-league shortstop.

dougdirt
04-12-2012, 04:03 PM
Seems to be a solid addition. Kudos to Buckley and the farm system for drafting and developing him. I recall at the time of the draft not many were too excited about him. IIRC, he profiled as a decent-fielding, light-hitting middle infielder -- solid all-around prospect, but most thought they took him too high. I think it is safe to say that those critics were wrong, since the Reds got a major-league shortstop.

The reports on Cozart were that he probably wouldn't hit much at the MLB level. To his own admission, he had to learn to swing differently as a pro than he did in college. He says in college that he was essentially all arms, but could get away with it. As a pro he said he had to learn to use his entire body in his swing. Good job by all involved there. The scouts had to see he had the ability to make the changes, Zack had to listen to his coaches and the coaches had to help him along the way to continue to make the right steps and improvements.

RedEye
04-13-2012, 01:53 PM
The reports on Cozart were that he probably wouldn't hit much at the MLB level. To his own admission, he had to learn to swing differently as a pro than he did in college. He says in college that he was essentially all arms, but could get away with it. As a pro he said he had to learn to use his entire body in his swing. Good job by all involved there. The scouts had to see he had the ability to make the changes, Zack had to listen to his coaches and the coaches had to help him along the way to continue to make the right steps and improvements.

Thanks, Doug. This puts a lot more perspective on what I was sensing, that there should indeed be congratulations all around -- to the scouts, to the minor league coaches, and to Zack himself, of course, for developing a successful major league shortstop for this franchise. Only time will tell, of course, whether Cozart is the long-term answer. But early returns look promising indeed! :beerme:

fearofpopvol1
04-20-2012, 07:40 PM
He's cooled off a little, but still looks very good. Defense has looked great and he's still sporting a OPS north of .800.

RedsManRick
04-20-2012, 10:31 PM
Cozart reminds me a lot of JJ Hardy. At the plate, he's got good power, decent contact, mediocre discipline. In the field, he's just solidly above average all around. On balance, that's an average to above average SS who could make an ASG or two.

Rojo
04-23-2012, 05:19 PM
Cozart reminds me a lot of JJ Hardy.

Hardy? I don't know. I think he'll BA higher but won't ever reach 30 homers.

He's a hard guy to comp. He had a decent walk rate in 08 and 09 but not so much in 10 and 11. He's flashed power and speed but you can't define a minor league trajectory.

I'm thinking Jeff Blauser with a better glove.

Benihana
04-23-2012, 06:03 PM
Perhaps slightly less power but more speed and better defense than Hardy IMO. I'll take that everyday of the week. Looks like he could and should be the Reds starting SS for the next five years at least.:thumbup:

mth123
04-23-2012, 07:34 PM
Hardy? I don't know. I think he'll BA higher but won't ever reach 30 homers.

He's a hard guy to comp. He had a decent walk rate in 08 and 09 but not so much in 10 and 11. He's flashed power and speed but you can't define a minor league trajectory.

I'm thinking Jeff Blauser with a better glove.

I've always thought Alex Gonzalez. Similar steady glove, some OB issues and enough power to put up double digit HR. Agon was a little past it here and had family and injury issues limiting him, but he's been a pretty darned good SS and I think Cozart would be a great success if he has a similar career.

fearofpopvol1
04-23-2012, 09:49 PM
I've always thought Alex Gonzalez. Similar steady glove, some OB issues and enough power to put up double digit HR. Agon was a little past it here and had family and injury issues limiting him, but he's been a pretty darned good SS and I think Cozart would be a great success if he has a similar career.

I'm not sure I see that. I see Gonzo with a better glove and less stick and Cozart with less glove and more stick.

mth123
04-24-2012, 01:52 AM
I'm not sure I see that. I see Gonzo with a better glove and less stick and Cozart with less glove and more stick.

I think people under-rate Cozart's defense. He was picked as a defense first SS. The low OBP 15 HR power compares well with AGon. Cozart may steal a few more bases, but it won't be a huge part of his game IMO.

fearofpopvol1
04-24-2012, 02:17 AM
I think people under-rate Cozart's defense. He was picked as a defense first SS. The low OBP 15 HR power compares well with AGon. Cozart may steal a few more bases, but it won't be a huge part of his game IMO.

Yeah, but as Doug noted before, Cozart didn't really figure out how to hit until later in the minors. In 2011, his slg was .467, and even though it's a small sample size, his slg has been .469 at the Show so far. I think he can maintain a similar level. Even though Gonzo has been in the majors a long time, his career .slg is .399 at the show. I believe Cozart has more power.

Defensively, when Gonzo was at his best, he was anywhere from +5 to +9.7 Fld. I don't believe Cozart at his best is that good. I believe he is still a good defender, and above average, but not that good.

I'm just not sure I agree with your comparison.

mth123
04-24-2012, 02:28 AM
Yeah, but as Doug noted before, Cozart didn't really figure out how to hit until later in the minors. In 2011, his slg was .467, and even though it's a small sample size, his slg has been .469 at the Show so far. I think he can maintain a similar level. Even though Gonzo has been in the majors a long time, his career .slg is .399 at the show. I believe Cozart has more power.

Defensively, when Gonzo was at his best, he was anywhere from +5 to +9.7 Fld. I don't believe Cozart at his best is that good. I believe he is still a good defender, and above average, but not that good.

I'm just not sure I agree with your comparison.

I hope you are right about his offense. I've had Cozart in my top 5 Reds prospects for the last 3 years, so I've been higher on him than most on here, but I've always had him figured as a .725 or so OPS guy. Take away some of AGon's injury plagued years and that's about where he'd be (Cozart will probably have some years like that too though). I do think Cozart will hit for a higher average than AGon, so his OBP and Slugging may end up higher as well, but I think expecting an OBP above .320 and a slugging much north of .400 is overly optimistic. I still think you are selling him short defensively. A typical offensive year is probably .260/.320/.400 IMO.

RANDY IN INDY
04-30-2012, 11:31 AM
Liking him more every day!

corkedbat
04-30-2012, 12:01 PM
Liking him more every day!

I've never expected alll-star numbers from Cozart, but don't believe the need them for him to adequately fill the shortstop spot. I believe he and (eventually) Didi will give the Reds a solid young SS duo their and allow them to move Hamilton to CF if his defense at SS doesn't solidify and Stubbs doesn't come around. I've been encouraged by Drew lately though. We started the year with Wilson Valdez, Miguel Cairo and Willie Harris as our IF reserves. By spring training next year, I'd like to see it be Didi Gregorious, Henry Rodriguez and Todd Frazier (if Todd isn't the regular at 3B). Didi (LH) and HRod (SH) would give you a lot of versatility on the bench with their abilities to hit from the left side.

I'm pretty much satisfied with our starting eight right now, although I still want an upgrade in LF. I would also like to see them replace Harris with a LH-hitting reserve OF with some punch if possible (but then, I still don't see why they don't give Danny Dorn a shot at the bench). :D