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View Full Version : Random Musings the Morning After the Signing Deadline



Benihana
08-16-2011, 10:19 AM
- The system is ridiculous. If everyone is going to wait until the last minute (literally) to sign anyway, might as well push the deadline up to July 15. That way players could still get a half of a season of development in, and teams could get a few weeks to watch injured players in summer ball. My guess is they change it for next year. It's just simply ridiculous.

- Can't believe Josh Bell signed. He was still the guy I wanted the Reds to take a chance on at 27, and it hurts even more that he will be in our division. Oh well.

- Glad they got Stephenson signed, as I started to worry after they signed the three overrslot guys in the last hour. He is a good upside pick at that spot. Interesting that Norris signed for the exact same amount. He was the other guy I liked for our pick, and it will be interesting to monitor their progress versus each other as they grow up.

- Credit the Reds for ponying up $1MM for Garrett. He has to be the most interesting non-first round draft choice of the Reds in a long time, if not ever. Much like Chapman, I wonder if they envision him as a starter or a closer?

- Seems like most of the guys who fell for signability reasons signed this year (Purke, Bell, Norris, Howard, Maples, Dean, Delmonico, etc.) I would really like to see the Reds take more chances on these types of guys. With international bonuses rising every year, this seems like the best place to capture an inefficiency in the market for a small-market team. These players are older and therefore less risky than the 16 year old international FA, and in many cases they come cheaper. The Pirates and the Nationals have done very well the last couple years (ie Allie, Holmes, Bell, Purke, Cole, etc.) The Blue Jays also seemed to do pretty well this year, despite not signing their first rounder.

redsfandan
08-16-2011, 10:34 AM
My 'musings':

- When will draft pick compensation change?

- Will teams ever be able to trade picks?

izzy's dad
08-16-2011, 10:56 AM
I am very happy with the signings. I think I am most excited to see how Rosa develops. Everytime I look at his body type, and watch video of him I see obvious comparisons to Alphonso Soriano. I am obviously very excited to see how Stephenson turns out. It isn't very often that you can get your hands on a potential TOR arm with control.

medford
08-16-2011, 01:03 PM
I wonder how much teams want to move up the Aug. 15 deadline a month. In the case of Alonso, it allowed the Reds to get him signed to a ML deal, get him working out in florida for a few weeks, then get him a handful of games in Billings (I think) then getting a "call up" to the show, so that he didn't burn an option since he spent less than 20 official days in the minors that season. Pushing up the mandatory signing date may close that little loop hole that the Reds (and presumably others) have taken advantage of.

With top shelf HS and collegiate pitchers, many of whom have already thrown a ton of innings, many teams would rather have them sitting on the shelf for a month than putting futher wear on that arm. For HS kids, it gives a little more seperation b/w the end of HS and the mandatory signing day. For college kids, how many graduate after the July 15th, or need to take a summer session class or two to finish up their credits?

I think there are benefits all around for both the player and the team. There is nothing to prevent them from signing the day after the draft, if that is their desire, but it allows some more freedom if there is a reason for pause. Its such a long way from draft day to the show, that missing the month of baseball isn't going to set any prospect back very far.

I see no logical reason why a team shouldn't be allowed to trade a draft pick. The draft is such a crapshoot that it would be much harder to assign value to a draft pick that my guess is ML teams have kept the trading of draft picks off the table to limit help protect teams from themselves a bit. The team that wants to trade away their whole draft in order to pick 1 player near the top of the draft, which may not work out, would be a huge blow. It would also leave said team scrambling to fill out its lower minor league rosters and perhaps keep them from making timely promotions as they'd have fewer prospects to take over a prospect's job when he raises a level.

kaldaniels
08-16-2011, 02:22 PM
Was Alonso called up to Cincy the year he was drafted? I must have forgotten that.

Danny Serafini
08-16-2011, 02:36 PM
Was Alonso called up to Cincy the year he was drafted? I must have forgotten that.

It went way under the radar. He never actually suited up for the Reds, it was just a paper move.

medford
08-16-2011, 04:06 PM
It went way under the radar. He never actually suited up for the Reds, it was just a paper move.

correct, I don't think he even came to cincy w/ the paper call up, rather went back to florida for more practice/workouts

kaldaniels
08-17-2011, 12:06 PM
correct, I don't think he even came to cincy w/ the paper call up, rather went back to florida for more practice/workouts

Is there any reference to this at all? Cot's had him at 0.051 service years coming into this season. Its not adding up to me.

- Why would the Reds "call him up" to work out in Florida, when said call up would contribute to his service time?

klw
08-17-2011, 12:21 PM
Is there any reference to this at all? Cot's had him at 0.051 service years coming into this season. Its not adding up to me.

- Why would the Reds "call him up" to work out in Florida, when said call up would contribute to his service time?

Wasn't it done to have him active but to avoid him burning an option?

medford
08-17-2011, 03:15 PM
Is there any reference to this at all? Cot's had him at 0.051 service years coming into this season. Its not adding up to me.

- Why would the Reds "call him up" to work out in Florida, when said call up would contribute to his service time?

There's a technicality in the option rules, basically if you spend less than 20 days of service in the minors and the rest in the majors, then you don't burn an option and all service time is counted as major league service time.

For example, Dennis Phipps is place on the 40 man roster at season's end to protect him from exposure to the Rule-5 draft (I don't know if he's eligible or not, just an example) With Alonso, Heisey, Stubbs, Drew, big offseason pickup, etc.. they feel like they're set in the OF and have no real plans for him at the majors next year, so he starts out in AAA. 18 days into the season, Bruce blows out his pinkie so they bring up Phipps. Phipps tears things up and stays up with the team all season long. Even when Bruce's pinkie is back to 100%, they send somebody else down and Phipps goes on to win rookie of the year. At season's end, Phipps would have 1 full season of service time, rathr than 1 full season - the 18 games, he would also have all 3 options available should the reds decide to send him back down to AAA the following season.

RED VAN HOT
08-17-2011, 04:08 PM
Thought it might be interesting to look at the draft payout of the Reds and their competitors within the division. I broke the payouts into two segments - payouts to the top ten picks (normal range for bonuses) and payouts to those drafted lower than 10. For the latter group I include the number signed as well as the round drafted and amount for the highest paid over slot player. Thus, the Cubs paid their top 10 picks a total of $6.56M. Then paid an additional 10 players bonuses totaling $5.186 M of which the most paid was $2.5M to their 14th round selection.

Team $ Top Ten #11+ bonus $11+ High Rd High Tot Cost
Chicago $6.56M 10 5.186 2.5 14 11.7
Houston 4.7 3 0.32 0.12 29 5.02
Milwaukee 6.793 2 0.44 0.315 18 7.23
Pittsburgh 16.4457 2 0.225 0.125 12 16.67
St Louis 4.055 2 0.200 0.100 17 & 43 4.255
Reds 3.701 5 2.0 1.0 22 5.7

kaldaniels
08-17-2011, 06:38 PM
There's a technicality in the option rules, basically if you spend less than 20 days of service in the minors and the rest in the majors, then you don't burn an option and all service time is counted as major league service time.

For example, Dennis Phipps is place on the 40 man roster at season's end to protect him from exposure to the Rule-5 draft (I don't know if he's eligible or not, just an example) With Alonso, Heisey, Stubbs, Drew, big offseason pickup, etc.. they feel like they're set in the OF and have no real plans for him at the majors next year, so he starts out in AAA. 18 days into the season, Bruce blows out his pinkie so they bring up Phipps. Phipps tears things up and stays up with the team all season long. Even when Bruce's pinkie is back to 100%, they send somebody else down and Phipps goes on to win rookie of the year. At season's end, Phipps would have 1 full season of service time, rathr than 1 full season - the 18 games, he would also have all 3 options available should the reds decide to send him back down to AAA the following season.

But what doesn't make sense to me, is why would it be worth (for the Reds) Yonder gaining service time just to workout in FL for a few weeks. I get that it is a small amount, but the risk/reward doesn't jive with me. That could cost the Reds a few million if the numbers fall right. Thanks for the example...I am certainly glad an option wasn't burned.