PDA

View Full Version : Arbitration Updates



I(heart)Freel
08-17-2011, 09:23 AM
From MLB Trade Rumors...


Unfortunate Type A Free Agents
By Tim Dierkes [August 17, 2011 at 7:55am CST]

Teams want their star free agents to be classified as Type As. For example, the Mets know there is no chance of Jose Reyes accepting an arbitration offer, nor will the loss of a draft pick have a big effect on his market. So, they can definitely expect two draft picks of some kind if he leaves. But for other, lesser free agents, Type A status is a problem for the team. For these guys it's understood by both sides that the loss of a pick will hurt their market, making the player more likely to accept an arbitration offer from their old team. If the team wants the picks but has no interest in retaining the player, offering arbitration is dangerous.

Looking at our latest Elias Rankings projections, the following non-star impending free agents are currently classified as Type A:
Ramon Hernandez (http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=hernara02,hernan004ram&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker), Reds: I think the Reds are safe here and Hernandez would decline an arbitration offer in search of multiyear security and a guaranteed deal.
Brandon Phillips (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/phillbr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker), Reds: If the Reds decide to decline Phillips' $12MM club option, snag some picks, and move on, they'd have to consider the possibility of Phillips accepting arbitration and actually getting more than $12MM. I think the risk of the Phillies' Jimmy Rollins (http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=rolliji01,rollin001jim&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker) accepting arbitration is lower.


No way the Reds mess with BPhil... there's too much risk. They'll almost certainly pick up the option. Perhaps they'll explore a trade once the option is picked, but no way do they decline and offer arb.

Ramon remains a sticky situation. I still can't believe a trade wasn't consummated at the deadline. The writer above feels certain Ramon will decline and seek a multi-year deal. I simply wonder if there's a market for that for him at this stage. DevMes has shown he's ready for the next step, so this business decision could impact the Reds' most important prospect's development.

How much could Ramon fetch in arb, if he accepts?
What if he's owed more than he can produce, knowing he had a fine year this year? Is he due for a decline?

Add this to the off-season intrigue. Certain to be one of the more interesting off-seasons in a while. Which, I realize, isn't saying much.

cumberlandreds
08-17-2011, 09:29 AM
Renewing Phillips is a no brainer. I'll be shocked and upset if that doesn't happen.

I just wonder if the Reds and Hernandez agent have some type of back room deal that Ramon will decline arbitration and go FA? Thus the Reds get their compensation and he can seek a multi year deal elsewhere.

PuffyPig
08-17-2011, 09:29 AM
If the Reds declined Philips option (they won't), 100% chance they would offer him arbitration, as teams would line up to offer Phillips a multi-year deal.

I'd say there is 0% chance that Hernendez would be offered arbitration. I doubt anyone would offer Hernendez a multi-year deal, and who would sign him for 1 year and forfeit their first round pick? Hernandez best pay day would be in arbitration.

mdccclxix
08-17-2011, 09:36 AM
The knowledge that Mesoraco will be getting PT along with Hannigan is an interesting facet to Ramon's arbitration decision. It may tip the scales and cause him to decline.

REDREAD
08-17-2011, 10:28 AM
I am not so sure about Ramon.
As I recall, he was very unhappy in Baltimore when we traded for him.
He seems happy now.
Maybe Walt and Ramon both want him to come back next year.
If Alonso is trade bait, Ramon could be the backup 1b, C, and bat off the bench.

Ramon has already made a lot of money in his career. Maybe he has other priorities than trying to snag a multiyear deal.. I'm not sure many teams would line up to give him a multiyear deal anyhow at his age. (How many backup catchers at his age get big multiyear deals).

Benihana
08-17-2011, 10:40 AM
I am not so sure about Ramon.
As I recall, he was very unhappy in Baltimore when we traded for him.
He seems happy now.
Maybe Walt and Ramon both want him to come back next year.
If Alonso is trade bait, Ramon could be the backup 1b, C, and bat off the bench.

Ramon has already made a lot of money in his career. Maybe he has other priorities than trying to snag a multiyear deal.. I'm not sure many teams would line up to give him a multiyear deal anyhow at his age. (How many backup catchers at his age get big multiyear deals).

He is not a backup catcher. Nor would he be next year on most teams, other than the Reds, Braves, Twins, Orioles, Indians, and a few others.

I would ABSOLUTELY offer Ramon arbitration. It is the ONLY way Walt could possibly justify not trading him last month. I would hope that he declines and we take the picks. However if he accepts, you can trade Hanigan, use Ramon as a veteran presence and valuable backup next year, and let him walk in 2013 when Grandal is ready. With Hanigan's contract, he certainly has some trade value.

PuffyPig
08-17-2011, 12:55 PM
I would ABSOLUTELY offer Ramon arbitration.


Then be prepared to have him play for the Reds for more money that you care.

No team will sacrifice its first round pick to sign a short term deal with Hernandez.

Hernandez may not want to come back to the Reds, but he may have no choice if we offer him arbitration, as he might become unsignable to another team.

bucksfan2
08-17-2011, 12:58 PM
Then be prepared to have him play for the Reds for more money that you care.

No team will sacrifice its first round pick to sign a short term deal with Hernandez.

Hernandez may not want to come back to the Reds, but he may have no choice if we offer him arbitration, as he might become unsignable to another team.

Tim Dierkes disagrees.

UKFlounder
08-17-2011, 12:58 PM
But you could trade Ramon if he accepted. Other teams might give up a minor leaguer instead of a 1st round pick and the return might not be great, but it's not like him accepting arbitration voids all other transaction possibilities.

lollipopcurve
08-17-2011, 02:55 PM
No team will sacrifice its first round pick to sign a short term deal with Hernandez.

Half the teams in baseball have their 1st round pick protected. Also, teams that themselves will be getting extra picks aren't going to be as worried about losing their own picks.

Hernandez is a valuable player. Catchers who can hit are in very short supply. There will be plenty of interest in him, IMO.

AtomicDumpling
08-17-2011, 03:03 PM
But you could trade Ramon if he accepted. Other teams might give up a minor leaguer instead of a 1st round pick and the return might not be great, but it's not like him accepting arbitration voids all other transaction possibilities.

Exactly right. If the worst case scenario is you have to pay Ramon a fair market salary if he accepts arbitration it is not so bad. He is an excellent catcher to have. If the Reds get "stuck" with him after arbitration I am sure Jocketty could find a team happy to trade for him. Many teams could use a good catcher and his value will increase once he no longer costs a team their first round pick to acquire him. I would offer him arbitration. If he declines then great -- the Reds get an extra 1st round or supplemental draft pick. If he accepts then great -- the Reds keep a good catcher or trade him for a prospect or a pitcher. Either way we get something. If we don't offer arbitration we get nothing.

Benihana
08-17-2011, 03:04 PM
Then be prepared to have him play for the Reds for more money that you care.

No team will sacrifice its first round pick to sign a short term deal with Hernandez.

Hernandez may not want to come back to the Reds, but he may have no choice if we offer him arbitration, as he might become unsignable to another team.

What the others said. MLBTR (for whatever its worth) firmly disagrees with you that he would accept. Half the teams wouldn't have to sacrifice their first round pick to sign him. There is certainly at least a chance.

And if he does accept, I'm fine having him. He is a veteran presence that could help tutor Mesoraco, and maintain continuity with some of the pitching staff- particularly the spanish speaking guys. Assuming Cordero will not return, it might be nice to have Spanish-speaking veteran leadership in the clubhouse. Especially with Rolen and Arroyo being huge question marks. Not to mention you could get value by trading Hanigan.

Scrap Irony
08-17-2011, 03:28 PM
I'd offer arbitration to both Phillips and Hernandez.

If Phillips declines, I'd sign a free agent SS/2B (Marco Scutaro, for example) for half his contract and look for a big bopper in LF or a TOR FA or trade target.

If Hernandez accepts, you can always deal either he or Hanigan for useful spare parts. (Or prospects.)

*BaseClogger*
08-17-2011, 03:39 PM
If Hernandez accepts arbitration I don't think he can be traded before June...

fearofpopvol1
08-17-2011, 03:40 PM
I could have sworn, and 1 of the arb experts can confirm/deny this, that if you offer arb and the player accepts it, you can't just trade them right away. It's a good faith thing. Maybe Brutus claimed that?

Benihana
08-17-2011, 03:40 PM
If Hernandez accepts arbitration I don't think he can be traded before June...

Great, so he can tutor Grandal (in ST) and Mez for two months before being dealt. Or he can be on the team all year and they can trade Hanigan. Either way, it's not the end of the world if he accepts. And it's great for the franchise if he doesn't.

The only thing that will be very bad is if he is not offered arbitration.

UKFlounder
08-17-2011, 04:12 PM
Well, I didn't realize the no-trade rule (what a dumb rule, but I digress) but I still think offering him arbitration is worth it.

*BaseClogger*
08-17-2011, 05:17 PM
Great, so he can tutor Grandal (in ST) and Mez for two months before being dealt. Or he can be on the team all year and they can trade Hanigan. Either way, it's not the end of the world if he accepts. And it's great for the franchise if he doesn't.

The only thing that will be very bad is if he is not offered arbitration.

That would be a very expensive tutor/backup catcher...

wlf WV
08-17-2011, 05:40 PM
Makes you wonder what the real offers were at the trade deadline.We'll never know,because Jocketty doesn't talk about it,and his veracity is suspect even when he does.

PuffyPig
08-17-2011, 05:57 PM
Cincinnati didn't offer him arbitration last year.

No one offered him a multi-year contract last year.

I'm not sure why anyone thinks things will be different this year when he is a year older.

FlightRick
08-17-2011, 06:29 PM
Ummm, we didn't offer arb nor did any other teams offer contracts last off-season because we picked up Ramon's option. Arbitration was not an alternative, and at $3m for 2011, the Reds weren't going to decline and let him become a free agent.

We got Ramon (and cash) prior to 2009, which was the last year of a 4-year deal for him. He put up numbers of .258/.336/.362 in '09, and we quite wisely declined an $8.5m option for 2010. Coming off a year with THOSE numbers (actually, 3 straight years with roughly those numbers, after a very productive 2006), the Reds offer of $3m for 2010 (with a 2011 option at the same price, and a modest buy-out) was the best he could do.

Things will be substantially different this off-season. A Type-A free agent, by definition, is putting up excellent numbers. He'll have two years of roughly .300/.360/.450 going into this off-season. The market for Ramon Hernandez is going to be drastically different than the last time that Ramon Hernandez was actually, you know?, on the market. Which was 2009, not 2010.


Rick

*BaseClogger*
08-17-2011, 06:31 PM
How much do we think he could receive in arb? $5M?

mth123
08-17-2011, 07:40 PM
Cincinnati didn't offer him arbitration last year.

No one offered him a multi-year contract last year.

I'm not sure why anyone thinks things will be different this year when he is a year older.

Agreed. Ramon will get more in arb than he will on the market. An arb offer practicaly guarantees that the Reds pay around $6 Million for a part time player whose defense is clearly in decline, would block our top prospect and eat up enough budget to prevent the team from addressng other needs.

If the team wants something back for Ramon, there is still time to deal him. No way should arb even be a consideration IMO.