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texasdave
08-18-2011, 06:42 PM
Johnny Cueto pitched eight shutout innings before giving up a lead-off home run to Ryan Zimmerman in the ninth. His eight innings of work was good enough for a 2-1 Cincinnati win over Washington. Cueto lowers his ERA to 1.89, which leads the National League. That game also gives him enough innings that he should stay in the NL lead in ERA as long as he stays on rotation. If his ERA stays this low through the end of the season, I wonder how much support he’ll get in the Cy Young voting? It would be difficult to deny the award to someone with an ERA under 2.00, even if he doesn’t pitch 200 innings.

The above is from baseballmusings.com. At least David Pinto gets it. Not hearing much support for Cueto anywhere else. It seems to me that if a pitcher throws enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, that should be enough for the Cy Young Award as well.

Cueto by the numbers:

ERA - 1ST - 1.89 - 30% better than Ryan Vogelsong who is second.
WHIP - 2ND - 1.01 - Trails only Cole Hamels
OPSA - 1ST - .561 - Basically makes the rest of the league look like so many Paul Janishes.
BAA - 1st - .201 - Batters nudging the Mendoza line against Johnny C.

He should get eight more starts and end up with 15ish wins with any offensive support. He should toss around 180 innings, half of them in GABP. If he keeps up at his current pace he will be the best pitcher in the NL in 2011. Unfortunately, he probably won't sniff the Cy Young Award. It will be interesting to see how many votes he garners.

R_Webb18
08-18-2011, 06:45 PM
anything can happen in them next 8 but imo if he keeps it up atleast a few ppl will notice. but will it be enough

Vottomatic
08-18-2011, 08:39 PM
I was talking about this today after last night's performance. The guy has been lights out impressive. I think he's the most impressive pitcher in either league this year. Screw wins and losses. That can be attributed to how good your offense is. Cueto has been the best pitcher in mlb this season so far. I hope he finishes strong and gives them reason to think twice about him.

brm7675
08-18-2011, 08:44 PM
He will be lucky to finish in the top 10, maybe 7th or 8th, but to many other choices with better seasons.

jredmo2
08-18-2011, 08:53 PM
If he gets his ERA down to like 1.60 or something, I could see it happening. Longshot, but a a couple shut-outs would get him close.

texasdave
08-18-2011, 08:53 PM
He will be lucky to finish in the top 10, maybe 7th or 8th, but to many other choices with better seasons.


If Roy Halladay didn't pitch again this season would he finish in the top 10?

NCCardfan
08-18-2011, 09:36 PM
He has had a great season and that's no joke. Too bad that the PHI rotation has already gotten the Cy Young in their clubhouse just waiting to figure out which name goes on it. The media has gotten almost as bad as picking high school homecoming queens - pure popularity contest. I always thought that stats were what showed the performance of great players. Cueto has all the numbers except wins and lack of offense is the reason for that. Other than the one bad outing on 8/6 @ the cubs (you will never see me capitalize that team;)) and the fact that he missed all of April he should at least deserve a podium finish. He has 1 no-decision (6-4 vs. LAD) and 2 losses (5/29 @ ATL & 7/4 @ STL) where he had absolutely no help from the other 20 players (don't count the other 4 starters) on the team.

ervinsm84
08-18-2011, 10:00 PM
johnnys been great, but hes "only" 2.4 war so far.

roy halladay is well over 6 war at this point in the season

cuetos fip and xfip are also not really cy young level, same with k's. His bapip and lob% are also both pretty out of whack.

but I agree, that for a national media that loves era he should be getting more consideration

Skreep
08-18-2011, 10:31 PM
He has had a great season and that's no joke. Too bad that the PHI rotation has already gotten the Cy Young in their clubhouse just waiting to figure out which name goes on it. The media has gotten almost as bad as picking high school homecoming queens - pure popularity contest. I always thought that stats were what showed the performance of great players. Cueto has all the numbers except wins and lack of offense is the reason for that. Other than the one bad outing on 8/6 @ the cubs (you will never see me capitalize that team;)) and the fact that he missed all of April he should at least deserve a podium finish. He has 1 no-decision (6-4 vs. LAD) and 2 losses (5/29 @ ATL & 7/4 @ STL) where he had absolutely no help from the other 20 players (don't count the other 4 starters) on the team.

last years AL Cy Young winner doesnt agree with this post

Krawhitham
08-18-2011, 10:56 PM
He will be luck if he gets 2 votes

Low innings & strikes outs will do him in

Krawhitham
08-18-2011, 10:58 PM
He has had a great season and that's no joke. Too bad that the PHI rotation has already gotten the Cy Young in their clubhouse just waiting to figure out which name goes on it.

Boy will they be shocked when it goes to a Dodger named Clayton Kershaw

justincredible
08-18-2011, 11:21 PM
Remember in 2006 when Harang had 2/3 of the Triple Crown and didn't finish in the top 10?

Skreep
08-18-2011, 11:32 PM
Remember in 2006 when Harang had 2/3 of the Triple Crown and didn't finish in the top 10?

i dont understand how he didnt get top 10. i could see maybe 4-5 pitchers who had a better year than him

Redsfansince72
08-18-2011, 11:54 PM
Cueto can blame his team not putting runs on the baord when he pitches to get him more wins.. that will keep him from winning a Cy Young.. they will look at wins and team standings.. 4th place doesnt cut a Cy Young these days..

Skreep
08-18-2011, 11:59 PM
Cueto can blame his team not putting runs on the baord when he pitches to get him more wins.. that will keep him from winning a Cy Young.. they will look at wins and team standings.. 4th place doesnt cut a Cy Young these days..

you forget about last year already?

panzecaz03
08-19-2011, 04:07 AM
he didnt play enough games. He would of if he played all season

Cant Touch This
08-19-2011, 12:39 PM
I don't know why people have to over-complicate things. What is the pitcher's job? To prevent runs from scoring. What's the best way to prevent runs from scoring? To limit the number of hits and walks.

There are pretty simple stats that illustrate a pitcher's ability to do these things. WHIP, BAA (batting average against) and the dreaded ERA.

Why should xFIP even be considered for the Cy Young Award? By definition (EXPECTED fielding independent pitching) it is a stat used to predict a pitcher's performance.

The Cy Young Award isn't based on expectations. It is based on results. If baseball experts are so high on run differential to evaluate how good a team really is, then why are experts so anti-ERA?

The man on the hill has one goal: prevent runs from scoring. And no one has done that better this year than Johnny Cueto. (same goes with allowing baserunners.)

Do I think he'll get the award? No. But I think, as of today, he deserves it.

P.S. I think strikeouts are a bit overrated, especially since they can be counter-productive to pitch-count efficiency. But they still have value and situational importance, so I can accept that the K category should be a consideration. I still think WHIP and BAA are more telling...

justincredible
08-19-2011, 12:45 PM
I don't know why people have to over-complicate things. What is the pitcher's job? To prevent runs from scoring. What's the best way to prevent runs from scoring? To limit the number of hits and walks.

There are pretty simple stats that illustrate a pitcher's ability to do these things. WHIP, BAA (batting average against) and the dreaded ERA.

Why should xFIP even be considered for the Cy Young Award? By definition (EXPECTED fielding independent pitching) it is a stat used to predict a pitcher's performance.

The Cy Young Award isn't based on expectations. It is based on results. If baseball experts are so high on run differential to evaluate how good a team really is, then why are experts so anti-ERA?

The man on the hill has one goal: prevent runs from scoring. And no one has done that better this year than Johnny Cueto. (same goes with allowing baserunners.)

Do I think he'll get the award? No. But I think, as of today, he deserves it.

P.S. I think strikeouts are a bit overrated, especially since they can be counter-productive to pitch-count efficiency. But they still have value and situational importance, so I can accept that the K category should be a consideration. I still think WHIP and BAA are more telling...

:beerme:

justincredible
08-19-2011, 12:46 PM
i dont understand how he didnt get top 10. i could see maybe 4-5 pitchers who had a better year than him

I believe he was the first pitcher to ever lead the league in wins and strikeouts and NOT win the Cy Young award. The fact that he didn't even crack the top 10 is absurd.

ervinsm84
08-19-2011, 01:36 PM
I don't know why people have to over-complicate things. What is the pitcher's job? To prevent runs from scoring. What's the best way to prevent runs from scoring? To limit the number of hits and walks.

There are pretty simple stats that illustrate a pitcher's ability to do these things. WHIP, BAA (batting average against) and the dreaded ERA.

Why should xFIP even be considered for the Cy Young Award? By definition (EXPECTED fielding independent pitching) it is a stat used to predict a pitcher's performance.

The Cy Young Award isn't based on expectations. It is based on results. If baseball experts are so high on run differential to evaluate how good a team really is, then why are experts so anti-ERA?

The man on the hill has one goal: prevent runs from scoring. And no one has done that better this year than Johnny Cueto. (same goes with allowing baserunners.)

Do I think he'll get the award? No. But I think, as of today, he deserves it.

P.S. I think strikeouts are a bit overrated, especially since they can be counter-productive to pitch-count efficiency. But they still have value and situational importance, so I can accept that the K category should be a consideration. I still think WHIP and BAA are more telling...


well, i didnt say that xfip should be used as the one and only single metric, i was only explaining the argument against cueto and even said that the media that loves era should be giving cueto more pub.

I guess, i can get why someone would not want to use xfip, but "FIP and xFIP are calculated exactly the same except in xFIP it replaces a pitcher’s homerun rate with the league-average rate (10.6% HR/FB) since pitcher homerun rates have been shown to be very unstable over time." from frangraphs definition. I guess reasonable minds can disagree on the merit of this statistic for a cy young candidate though and I understand why someone would take issue with it. However, where are we drawing the line?

Do we also think FIP should be completely discounted? Maybe WAR shouldnt be used either?

The main reason that people who use run differential a lot, are "antiera" which is an odd way of phrasing it anyways bc its not really "anti-era", but rather they think that there are better stats that judge what a pitcher has or hasnt done and how effectively he has pitched

There are a lot of huge flaws with era that im sure most everyone here is familiar with but ill leave a couple below
1. babip and LOB% heavily influences it, which i think we can concede arent really the best measure of anything a pitcher is actually doing
2. 2 outs. no one on. SS commits an error. Pitcher gives up 7 runs afterwards on hits, homeruns, doubles and walks. None of those runs affect the pitchers era (yes the inning should be over, but that doesnt just give them a free pass to suck)
3. Most importantly, ERA doesnt account for differences in one teams defense over another.


Does any of this mean ERA is useless? imo no. But i do think all of these different things should be considered, (in no order and not equally weighted ob) when determining who should be a cy young, excluding wins.

Innings Pitched
Shutouts
Complete Games
K's
WALKS
BAA
WHIP
ERA
WAR
FIP
xFIP
BAPIP
LOB%

And anything else that gives more insight to what the pitcher did or didnt do on the mound

Cant Touch This
08-19-2011, 04:10 PM
well, i didnt say that xfip should be used as the one and only single metric, i was only explaining the argument against cueto and even said that the media that loves era should be giving cueto more pub.

I guess, i can get why someone would not want to use xfip, but "FIP and xFIP are calculated exactly the same except in xFIP it replaces a pitcher’s homerun rate with the league-average rate (10.6% HR/FB) since pitcher homerun rates have been shown to be very unstable over time." from frangraphs definition. I guess reasonable minds can disagree on the merit of this statistic for a cy young candidate though and I understand why someone would take issue with it. However, where are we drawing the line?

Do we also think FIP should be completely discounted? Maybe WAR shouldnt be used either?

The main reason that people who use run differential a lot, are "antiera" which is an odd way of phrasing it anyways bc its not really "anti-era", but rather they think that there are better stats that judge what a pitcher has or hasnt done and how effectively he has pitched

There are a lot of huge flaws with era that im sure most everyone here is familiar with but ill leave a couple below
1. babip and LOB% heavily influences it, which i think we can concede arent really the best measure of anything a pitcher is actually doing
2. 2 outs. no one on. SS commits an error. Pitcher gives up 7 runs afterwards on hits, homeruns, doubles and walks. None of those runs affect the pitchers era (yes the inning should be over, but that doesnt just give them a free pass to suck)
3. Most importantly, ERA doesnt account for differences in one teams defense over another.


Does any of this mean ERA is useless? imo no. But i do think all of these different things should be considered, (in no order and not equally weighted ob) when determining who should be a cy young, excluding wins.

Innings Pitched
Shutouts
Complete Games
K's
WALKS
BAA
WHIP
ERA
WAR
FIP
xFIP
BAPIP
LOB%

And anything else that gives more insight to what the pitcher did or didnt do on the mound

First - I wasn't trying to pick on you (or your post) specifically, so I apologize if it came off that way.

Secondly, your argument is strong. I may not agree with the use of some of the stats but I am reasonable enough to appreciate why others do.

There are certainly a variety of ways to evaluate a pitcher's overall performance. I also agree that ERA is nowhere near a perfect stat and shouldn't be the only barometer.

However, I still stick by what I feel is the ultimate goal of the pitcher, which is to prevent runners from crossing the plate. How Cueto accomplishes that may be very different than how Halladay accomplishes it. But ultimately, the two have been almost identically effective in runs allowed per inning (earned or not.)

In the end, just about every single stat has some level of subjectivity built into it, including walks, strikeouts, hits, and even home runs. Why? Because humans are still making decisions as to what is a ball and what is a strike. Humans determine what is a hit and what is an error. So to that end, there is no perfect stat and likely never will be. So that points to my original question - why over-complicate things? Just use BAA and WHIP as two heavily-weighted indicators of a pitcher's ability to get guys out and prevent runs from crossing the plate. Then use ERA, IP, Ks, HRs allowed, etc. to help support someone's case or break the ties.

ervinsm84
08-19-2011, 04:48 PM
I don't really agree that using more factors is "overcomplicating it" so thats gonna leave us at a stalemate.

what did confuse me was pointing out score keeping discrepencies btwn errors and hits,but then advocating baa and whip as the main components

cueto still has an outside chance of winning it, but hes gonna have to amp it up in k's to get any real consideration as a winner. I do think as long as he maintains what hes doing, he'll be top 5.

Skreep
08-19-2011, 05:06 PM
I believe he was the first pitcher to ever lead the league in wins and strikeouts and NOT win the Cy Young award. The fact that he didn't even crack the top 10 is absurd.

wins for a pitcher is the worst stat in baseball.

Cant Touch This
08-19-2011, 05:11 PM
what did confuse me was pointing out score keeping discrepencies btwn errors and hits,but then advocating baa and whip as the main components

My last paragraph explains that ALL stats have subjectivity built in, including BAA and WHIP. Since they are all subjective, my argument is why compute those basic factors into more complex formulas to come up with WAR? That just adds subjectivity upon more subjectivity. Looking at the formula for FIP...it uses coefficients. Who came up with those? Where is the scientific evidence that those coefficients are accurate? My argument is that WAR and FIP are not any more of an exact science than WHIP or BAA. So why favor them so much?

Furthermore, stats like WAR may have value, because it tries to compare a player's performance against the rest of the league. Okay, how do you account for playing against different teams, with different rosters (injuries, etc.), using home/away splits, night/day splits, etc. You can't. That's why WAR isn't really the end all be all "compare pitcher A to the rest of the league" stat. There really isn't one. Unless pitcher A and pitcher B face the exact same teams, same batters, same lineups, in the same parks, officiated by the same umpires, in the same weather conditions, etc....

In theory, it's impossible to come up with a stat that illustrates a true comparison, because there are simply too many variables that come into play. So why do it?

That's what I mean by over-complicating it.

Skreep
08-19-2011, 05:26 PM
can we all just agree that there is no single stat that tells a single story. The only way stats should be ever used is combined with other stats.

Cant Touch This
08-19-2011, 05:55 PM
can we all just agree that there is no single stat that tells a single story. The only way stats should be ever used is combined with other stats.

True, but that's not exactly the point. The debate is: Should Cueto be considered a viable candidate for the Cy Young Award. My argument is yes, if the award were to be given today, based on his league leading ERA and BAA, along with top 3 in WHIP.

Others suggest that in order to fully evaluate a pitcher's performance, you should consider other measurements, such as FIP, WAR, etc.

Just because I don't agree with them doesn't make them wrong, nor does it mean those stats don't have value. I just don't value them nearly as much as others do, and think that BAA, WHIP, and ERA combined is truly enough evidence, over the minimum number of innings pitched to qualify, to compare one pitcher to another in terms of doing what he is supposed to do: prevent runs from scoring.

Skreep
08-19-2011, 06:07 PM
True, but that's not exactly the point. The debate is: Should Cueto be considered a viable candidate for the Cy Young Award. My argument is yes, if the award were to be given today, based on his league leading ERA and BAA, along with top 3 in WHIP.

Others suggest that in order to fully evaluate a pitcher's performance, you should consider other measurements, such as FIP, WAR, etc.

Just because I don't agree with them doesn't make them wrong, nor does it mean those stats don't have value. I just don't value them nearly as much as others do, and think that BAA, WHIP, and ERA combined is truly enough evidence, over the minimum number of innings pitched to qualify, to compare one pitcher to another in terms of doing what he is supposed to do: prevent runs from scoring.

i agree with you. but i highly value stats only if they tell the entire story. using just ERA and K's dont say anything really about how good a pitcher is. Even WHIP could be affected by a terrible defense behind you.

Cant Touch This
08-19-2011, 06:18 PM
i agree with you. but i highly value stats only if they tell the entire story. using just ERA and K's dont say anything really about how good a pitcher is. Even WHIP could be affected by a terrible defense behind you.

Right, and FIP could be affected by an umpire with a tight strike zone. (It also doesn't penalize a pitcher for giving up 22 hits in a game, as long as none of them leave the park, but my opinion of FIP is not the point of this debate...)

As I have argued, there are just too many variables to effectively and fairly compare one pitcher to another - so by adding more and more stats, it just creates even more subjectivity into the comparison.

I'm not saying that we use just ERA (or any one single stat) to compare pitchers. But I'm saying a combination of ERA, WHIP, and BAA is a damn good barometer to determine how effective a pitcher is at preventing runs from scoring. Why complicate it more by adding more subjectivity to the equation?

Vottomatic
08-19-2011, 07:28 PM
He will be lucky to finish in the top 10, maybe 7th or 8th, but to many other choices with better seasons.

Huh?

He won't win it because of wins and losses, lack of offensive support, the team is in 3rd place and not contending. and the team does not reside in a big city or on the East Coast.

He certainly may be the best pitcher in mlb though.

Redeye fly
08-19-2011, 08:59 PM
well, i didnt say that xfip should be used as the one and only single metric, i was only explaining the argument against cueto and even said that the media that loves era should be giving cueto more pub.

I guess, i can get why someone would not want to use xfip, but "FIP and xFIP are calculated exactly the same except in xFIP it replaces a pitcher’s homerun rate with the league-average rate (10.6% HR/FB) since pitcher homerun rates have been shown to be very unstable over time." from frangraphs definition. I guess reasonable minds can disagree on the merit of this statistic for a cy young candidate though and I understand why someone would take issue with it. However, where are we drawing the line?

Do we also think FIP should be completely discounted? Maybe WAR shouldnt be used either?

The main reason that people who use run differential a lot, are "antiera" which is an odd way of phrasing it anyways bc its not really "anti-era", but rather they think that there are better stats that judge what a pitcher has or hasnt done and how effectively he has pitched

There are a lot of huge flaws with era that im sure most everyone here is familiar with but ill leave a couple below
1. babip and LOB% heavily influences it, which i think we can concede arent really the best measure of anything a pitcher is actually doing
2. 2 outs. no one on. SS commits an error. Pitcher gives up 7 runs afterwards on hits, homeruns, doubles and walks. None of those runs affect the pitchers era (yes the inning should be over, but that doesnt just give them a free pass to suck)
3. Most importantly, ERA doesnt account for differences in one teams defense over another.


Does any of this mean ERA is useless? imo no. But i do think all of these different things should be considered, (in no order and not equally weighted ob) when determining who should be a cy young, excluding wins.

Innings Pitched
Shutouts
Complete Games
K's
WALKS
BAA
WHIP
ERA
WAR
FIP
xFIP
BAPIP
LOB%

And anything else that gives more insight to what the pitcher did or didnt do on the mound

In terms of what I bolded, yes I think that at least at this time those stats should be ignored and discounted.

Because, let's be realistic and face facts. They will be. I'm not saying the stats are invalid or have no use whatsoever. But the fact is that the number of voters who will look at and give careful consideration to those stats, proportionally or literal number wise is more than likely going to be quite small. Obviously they're gaining some momentum as more and more people take a look at the sabremetric side of things. But this is still by and large an old school group of writers who vote for these awards and even who vote for who gets inducted into the Hall of Fame.

They'll be looking at 3 major categories... wins, strikeouts, and ERA. In the years that a reliever has been dominant and actually won the award they look at saves and save percentage as well... maybe throw winning percentage into the mix for starters as well. But then guys who pitch a full year and have a lot of wins usually have a pretty impressive winning percentage to go along with it.

Skreep
08-19-2011, 09:01 PM
Huh?

He won't win it because of wins and losses, lack of offensive support, the team is in 3rd place and not contending. and the team does not reside in a big city or on the East Coast.

He certainly may be the best pitcher in mlb though.

why do people keep bringing this up? does no one remember what happened less than a year ago?

cinredsfan2000
08-19-2011, 09:45 PM
Bob Ryan gave cueto some love this afternoon on P.T.I. When it was mentioned should kershaw get consideration for the cy young for playing on a bad dodgers team.