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View Full Version : Votto discusses possible move to LF; Plans to test free agency after '13



fearofpopvol1
08-19-2011, 01:48 AM
Surprised this didn't have it's own thread already.

Maybe "refused" isn't accurate, but the article pretty much says there's no chance.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110818&content_id=23396172&vkey=news_cin&c_id=cin


"Jay has been playing the outfield since he was a little boy, same with Drew [Stubbs] and [Chris] Heisey and Fred Lewis," Votto said. All have been outfielders for a long time. Just to shuffle me out there, it's a big adjustment for me or any player. There's no reason that at some point, Yonder [couldn't] be a pretty good outfielder. He's being judged based on 50-75 games and that's unfair."


The Reds' problems don't get easier from here. Alonso will be out of Minor League options come next Spring Training. And when he signed his three-year, $38 million contract last winter, [B]Votto made it clear he would test free agency after the 2013 season -- when he'll be making $17 million in the final year of the deal. The next two years could get very interesting.

I know we all assumed Votto was testing free agency, but I didn't realize Votto had made it clear.

reds44
08-19-2011, 02:00 AM
I like how you put "refuses" in the title to draw attention only to even admit yourself he didn't refuse to. That's a joke.

Nowhere in there did he even come remotely close to refusing to play the outfield.

As a matter of fact he said:

"If they'd like me to play the outfield, maybe I will play center or right," Votto retorted.

To say he "refuses" is just flat out wrong. He won't and he shouldn't, but to say he refuses is incorrect.

Now I will watch this thread going into 50 pages of ripping Votto and people saying we should trade him.

Trade Votto, Bruce is a problem, Stubbs strikes out too much, Phillips talks to much, it's always something here.

corkedbat
08-19-2011, 02:00 AM
Surprised this didn't have it's own thread already.

Maybe "refused" isn't accurate, but the article pretty much says there's no chance.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110818&content_id=23396172&vkey=news_cin&c_id=cin





I know we all assumed Votto was testing free agency, but I didn't realize Votto had made it clear.

I always thought it had been pretty clear.

fearofpopvol1
08-19-2011, 02:13 AM
I like how you put "refuses" in the title to draw attention only to even admit yourself he didn't refuse to. That's a joke.

Nowhere in there did he even come remotely close to refusing to play the outfield.

As a matter of fact he said:


To say he "refuses" is just flat out wrong. He won't and he shouldn't, but to say he refuses is incorrect.

Now I will watch this thread going into 50 pages of ripping Votto and people saying we should trade him.

Trade Votto, Bruce is a problem, Stubbs strikes out too much, Phillips talks to much, it's always something here.

Votto in CF :laugh:

Do you know what the definition of "retorted" means?

According to dictionary.com


to reply to, usually in a sharp or retaliatory way.

I'm pretty certain that it was said with sarcasm and it means he's dismissive of the idea. If you read all the other quotes, he says anything but he's willing to move to LF. Show me 1 quote where he says he's willing to play the outfield, other than the one you posted, which isn't him endorsing the idea.

I think you need some fresh air.

camisadelgolf
08-19-2011, 02:30 AM
The article claims that Yonder Alonso will be out of options by next spring training, but my understanding is that he can be optioned next year (but not the year after unless he doesn't burn an option next year).

Brutus
08-19-2011, 02:43 AM
I'd like to see the quote in print that he made it "clear."

If I'm a writer, and in fact I am, I put out the most relevant quotes to support such a case. If Joey Votto actually said something that made it clear he's going to test free agency, bet your bottom dollar I'm putting that quote in print.

Slyder
08-19-2011, 02:46 AM
Votto's earned the right with his play and he is right, outfield would be a big adjustment. He didn't refuse, he said theres no point right now we're done. Yonder has shown he's willing to try and find ways into the lineup, an offseason would probably do wonders whether its 3b or LF (or we trade Votto). I don't blame him for wanting to explore his opportunities.

fearofpopvol1
08-19-2011, 02:53 AM
To be clear, I never said Votto should move, just that he's unwilling in my estimation.

schroomytunes
08-19-2011, 03:09 AM
Votto should never test FA! we need to package Woood,Alonzo, Volquez, frazier for FA! Alonzo willl not draw Votto or will he hit(ex(glen davis) walt needs to upgrDE THE STARTING 5!... i LOVE THE REDS SO MUCH!!!!

thatcoolguy_22
08-19-2011, 03:21 AM
If there is any validity to this, I am trading votto this offseason. I know people are skeptical, but where there's smoke there's fire (as the cliche goes). I am on vaca at the moment but this sounds like we need to explore the options. Votto = .900 OPS I would assume Alonso = .820ish OPS. losing .080 with the ability to gain a huge return from mr Joey votto seems like nothing to pay. Think what a legit #1 SP would do for this club. Everyone take a step back from the Votto love affair and analyze this like it's legit news. What would be best for the club? Once again I'm toasted in boca, so take it for what's it's worth.

Matt700wlw
08-19-2011, 03:50 AM
This isn't an issue if the Reds are winning. Internally, it may be, but we're not talking about it.

Too bad.

GAC
08-19-2011, 04:18 AM
The only thing that Votto said that stood out to me was this....


There's no reason that at some point, Yonder [couldn't] be a pretty good outfielder.

If you don't want to play LF that's fine with me Joey, no hard feelings. But Geez! :laugh:

The only people that may possibly know, have any hint, if Joey's intent is to leave in a couple of years are those guys in the FO who have talked with him and his agent. And if it looks like it's strongly leaning that way then this FO, for the future of this organization, needs to be exploring moves. Lets not let him walk into FA for draft picks.

757690
08-19-2011, 04:20 AM
I'd like to see the quote in print that he made it "clear."

If I'm a writer, and in fact I am, I put out the most relevant quotes to support such a case. If Joey Votto actually said something that made it clear he's going to test free agency, bet your bottom dollar I'm putting that quote in print.

I thought the same thing when I read that line. Votto has made nothing clear so far to the press about his intentions after 2013. I think it's a good bet that he will test the market, but he never said anything definitive about it when he signed his extension, which is what the article says.

I'm guessing this is a typo or a copy editor getting sloppy. Sheldon is usually better than this.

icehole3
08-19-2011, 04:34 AM
his flippant attitude towards the subject would make trading him my number1 priority this off season

757690
08-19-2011, 04:38 AM
Changing positions is much more difficult than most think, so I understand Votto's and the team's hesitation.

However, Votto's reaction speaks volumes to me about him, and if I were GM, I would be looking to trade him either this year or next.

To me, a player who is truly devoted to winning, and who cares about the team more than himself, would be willing to at least try moving to a new position. And I really don't want a player on my team, no matter how productive he is, who I know doesn't put the team first.

Now, I wouldn't trade him just to trade him, but if the right deal was available, where the Reds got a premium player back, I would make it.

Ron Madden
08-19-2011, 04:54 AM
The fact that small market teams can't hold on to the good players they develop breaks my heart.

With that sad reality in mind I'll be disappointed if the Reds hold onto Joey Votto then lose him for a couple draft picks instead of trading him a year early for a fair return.

KronoRed
08-19-2011, 06:25 AM
Big deal, asking the MVP to move for a guy who may or may not actually hit in the majors seems faulty from the get go, make the new guy learn the new position.

Besides, the Reds are tiny market and Votto was going to be gone no matter what, why screw around while you've got him? by 2013 there could be a different 1B beating down the door.

icehole3
08-19-2011, 06:27 AM
if he didnt want to be a team player he shouldve played tennis

cumberlandreds
08-19-2011, 07:35 AM
I pulled this quote from the article. Would you want the Reds defense weakened at two positions if Votto moves to LF? Not me. The best thing the Reds can do is be very aggressive this off season in obtaining everything the team needs to contend next season. Basically go for it all in 2012. Because after 2012 Votto is as good as gone. If continues to perform at the level he has in 2010 and 2011 there's no way the Reds can sign him after 2013.

Alonso, himself a hard worker trying to get better in left field, is not as good defensively as Votto is at first base. He's been rated in some reports as average-to-below average. Moving Votto to left field could weaken the Reds at two positions.

Hoosier Red
08-19-2011, 07:53 AM
If there is any validity to this, I am trading votto this offseason. I know people are skeptical, but where there's smoke there's fire (as the cliche goes). I am on vaca at the moment but this sounds like we need to explore the options. Votto = .900 OPS I would assume Alonso = .820ish OPS. losing .080 with the ability to gain a huge return from mr Joey votto seems like nothing to pay. Think what a legit #1 SP would do for this club. Everyone take a step back from the Votto love affair and analyze this like it's legit news. What would be best for the club? Once again I'm toasted in boca, so take it for what's it's worth.

I think there's a difference between clearly testing free agency, and clearly wanting to become a free agent.

He's clearly willing to use the impending free agency to improve his own personal leverage. I don't think he's so excited about becoming a free agent that if the Reds made him a 5 year/$150 million offer that he'd say, "no no, I'm intent on becoming a free agent."

TMBS, if the Reds best offer wouldn't be enough to keep him, the Reds should explore all of their options, including simply letting him play his last two years of his contract.

Having a reliable 1b who can hit .300 with 30 HR's for two years isn't the worse thing in the world.

MikeS21
08-19-2011, 08:02 AM
I would agree that the closer we get to 2013, the less Votto's trade value will be. But we also have two drafts and a couple minor league options for 1B (Soto at AA and possible moving Fransisco to 1B). None of the options are going to measure up to Votto, but the sooner we realize we will NEVER find an equal talent to replace Votto, the better.

Point being, both Votto and Alonso could be traded for value, and the team will survive.

PuffyPig
08-19-2011, 08:07 AM
I beleive the writer is assuming that since Votto signed only a 3 year contract, his actions made it clear he intended to test UFA.

Which may or may not be true, but I doubt Votto has ever said so pubically.

Hoosier Red
08-19-2011, 08:08 AM
his flippant attitude towards the subject would make trading him my number1 priority this off season

Ah yes, nothing like trading away good players. Hey Ryan Freel gladly switched positions.

Here's my question, what if Joey Votto's not willing to go to LF because he thinks he'd be worse than Alonso? I mean if Yonder's been working at LF for a whole off season and this season as well as sporadically in the minors before this, and is still this bad, why does anyone think the defense is better with VOtto in LF and Yonder at 1b?

If it takes Votto a year and a half to become an adequate LF, what's the point?

Good managers don't only work with "team first guys." Good managers show every individual how they'll personally succeed by helping the team.
The classic example of Rose switching positions wasn't so much an example of Rose being a team first guy, as it was of Sparky figuring out a way to maximize Rose's value and appealing to Rose's ego.

Roy Tucker
08-19-2011, 08:12 AM
Based on the wide range of interpretations in this thread, this is probably why Joey doesn't like to talk about free agency and the OF. All it does is open him up to more and more questions and Votto ain't the most forthcoming guy in the world.

Caveat Emperor
08-19-2011, 08:29 AM
The fact that small market teams can't hold on to the good players they develop breaks my heart.

Votto and the Reds has become an issue of deployment of resources an assets more than anything else.

Do I like Votto? Absolutely. Would I want him to OPS ~.950-1.000, hit 25-30 HR and drive in 100 runs in a Reds uniform for the next 10 years? Without a doubt.

But, the fact of the matter is that this team's best shot to reach the next level might require them trading a player like Votto to get back something they cannot develop -- a SS that hits, a big bat in LF, or a TOR starter -- and playing Alonso at 1st even knowing that his production won't be at Votto levels.

The issue isn't that teams like the Reds can't afford to hold onto Votto, the issue is that teams like the Reds can't afford to go out and sign to fill a ton of holes. That means when they have guys who can bring back returns in areas of dire team need, they have to consider moving those guys to build a full roster.

oneupper
08-19-2011, 08:50 AM
I beleive the writer is assuming that since Votto signed only a 3 year contract, his actions made it clear he intended to test UFA.

Which may or may not be true, but I doubt Votto has ever said so pubically.

Yep.

Votto seems to be a very smart and very complicated guy.

He could very well have issues with the REDS which might induce him to look for greener pastures in the future. I could think of a few.

1) Holding him back in the minors, apparently to delay his clock. (Include the first pitch take rule, which hurt his numbers while it was in effect).
2) Surrounding him with very average hitters in the lineup, limiting his ability to perform.
3) Having to play under a "sound-bite" savvy, but strategically challenged manager.
4) Limited opportunities to win, given budget/market constraints.

But Votto has never said as much, at least directly, nor should he.
Good for him.

Alonso may be a good hitter, but Votto is special. Losing him will be very, very tough to deal with.

lollipopcurve
08-19-2011, 08:55 AM
Do I like Votto? Absolutely. Would I want him to OPS ~.950-1.000, hit 25-30 HR and drive in 100 runs in a Reds uniform for the next 10 years? Without a doubt.

But, the fact of the matter is that this team's best shot to reach the next level might require them trading a player like Votto to get back something they cannot develop -- a SS that hits, a big bat in LF, or a TOR starter -- and playing Alonso at 1st even knowing that his production won't be at Votto levels.

The issue isn't that teams like the Reds can't afford to hold onto Votto, the issue is that teams like the Reds can't afford to go out and sign to fill a ton of holes. That means when they have guys who can bring back returns in areas of dire team need, they have to consider moving those guys to build a full roster.

Agree with every word here.

I love Votto as a hitter. He may be the best hitter I've seen in a Reds uni in about 45 years of following the team. I wish he'd agreed to a longer deal last winter. When he didn't, and Bruce did, I think the writing was on the wall. One guy was buying in to being a Red, the other guy wasn't. And we know how that plays in Cincinnati.

If they can get Bautista for him, they probably have to do it.

Prior to this year, I felt Alonso hadn't proved enough for Votto to have to consider a move. Now I feel differently. In an ideal world, Votto goes to Baker and volunteers to make the switch. It could be that management has not approached him because they don't want to piss him off... who knows. Whatever the dynamic could/should have been, it's probably too late now --

Sea Ray
08-19-2011, 09:03 AM
The issue isn't that teams like the Reds can't afford to hold onto Votto, the issue is that teams like the Reds can't afford to go out and sign to fill a ton of holes. That means when they have guys who can bring back returns in areas of dire team need, they have to consider moving those guys to build a full roster.

I see what you're saying but I disagree and here's why. Small market teams don't trade guys like Votto while they're cheap to fill those holes you mentioned. They only do it after their price gets too high for the payroll to absorb. Thus the key factor here is the $20mill salary Votto is due, not the fact that trading him can fill a few holes. If Votto could be resigned for $12 mill a year, think they'd trade him for that SS you mentioned?

Sea Ray
08-19-2011, 09:05 AM
Prior to this year, I felt Alonso hadn't proved enough for Votto to have to consider a move. Now I feel differently. In an ideal world, Votto goes to Baker and volunteers to make the switch. It could be that management has not approached him because they don't want to piss him off... who knows. Whatever the dynamic could/should have been, it's probably too late now --

I disagree. Such a move weakens us at two positions. I'd much rather trade Alonso for a decent LFer and leave the sensitive Votto alone

klw
08-19-2011, 09:07 AM
If Votto is to test the free agent market in '13 the time to look at moving him is this offseason. With Pujols and Fielder in play the 1b market will be cramped but a teams looking to go all in on one of those two may prefer the lower $ cost but higher player cost of Votto. Once those two are positioned the position may be resolved for a bit with Howard in Philly, Gonzalez in Boston, Tex in NYY and Pujols and Fielder wherever they end up. If you get great value move him now, if you don't you hold him and revisit things later. The Reds should be open with Votto about what they do and why so as not to burn bridges in case he has not ruled out a return.

lollipopcurve
08-19-2011, 09:11 AM
Such a move weakens us at two positions.

Compared to what? With work, Votto probably ends up a decent LF, and Alonso may be adequate at 1st. Factor in the overall offensive upgrade and it becomes a win for the team.

Mario-Rijo
08-19-2011, 09:14 AM
his flippant attitude towards the subject would make trading him my number1 priority this off season

I'd be flippant to if somebody offered me A.) A brand new Corvette or B.) a brand new Pinto. Or to put it another way, don't ask a dumb question (no doubt one he has heard at least a half dozen times) if you don't want me to be dismissive of it. His attitude reflects the nature of the situation, he knows along with apparently only a few others that even asking him to consider playing LF in no way shape or form helps this team. And the simple fact that so many don't get it flat out is annoying to him and everyone else who sees the wrong in it.

Hey Cueto how about you move to the pen to make room for Volquez or Wood, I mean you can be solid pitching either right?

I know let's run this MVP out of town because he won't consider making us worse. Thank you Joey for standing up for yourself and the team (a somehow overlooked aspect of your comments).

lollipopcurve
08-19-2011, 09:17 AM
If Votto is to test the free agent market in '13 the time to look at moving him is this offseason. With Pujols and Fielder in play the 1b market will be cramped but a teams looking to go all in on one of those two may prefer the lower $ cost but higher player cost of Votto. Once those two are positioned the position may be resolved for a bit with Howard in Philly, Gonzalez in Boston, Tex in NYY and Pujols and Fielder wherever they end up.

This is true. It will give the Reds a good look at the 1B market. That said, it's no secret that Toronto is determined to bring in Canadian players, and Votto is the marquee, once in a decade Canadian player, and a native son to Toronto at that. If they get him under his current contract, controlling him for 2 years, it's going to be difficult for Votto to walk away after 2013. Whereas if he were to be traded somewhere else, he wouldn't have to turn his back on them. I see the Blue Jays coming hard after Joey if the Reds make him available, and that's very good for the Reds' prospects of finding a good trade fit somewhere.

Mario-Rijo
08-19-2011, 09:17 AM
Compared to what? With work, Votto probably ends up a decent LF, and Alonso may be adequate at 1st. Factor in the overall offensive upgrade and it becomes a win for the team.

Here's another problem we don't know if it would be an offensive upgrade. Let's not get carried away on Alonso just yet...

Mario-Rijo
08-19-2011, 09:21 AM
Votto and the Reds has become an issue of deployment of resources an assets more than anything else.

Do I like Votto? Absolutely. Would I want him to OPS ~.950-1.000, hit 25-30 HR and drive in 100 runs in a Reds uniform for the next 10 years? Without a doubt.

But, the fact of the matter is that this team's best shot to reach the next level might require them trading a player like Votto to get back something they cannot develop -- a SS that hits, a big bat in LF, or a TOR starter -- and playing Alonso at 1st even knowing that his production won't be at Votto levels.

The issue isn't that teams like the Reds can't afford to hold onto Votto, the issue is that teams like the Reds can't afford to go out and sign to fill a ton of holes. That means when they have guys who can bring back returns in areas of dire team need, they have to consider moving those guys to build a full roster.

Not many teams do better by trading away an MVP caliber bat, in fact it might be thee most important piece of a championship caliber 25 man puzzle.

Chip R
08-19-2011, 09:22 AM
Changing positions is much more difficult than most think, so I understand Votto's and the team's hesitation.

However, Votto's reaction speaks volumes to me about him, and if I were GM, I would be looking to trade him either this year or next.

To me, a player who is truly devoted to winning, and who cares about the team more than himself, would be willing to at least try moving to a new position. And I really don't want a player on my team, no matter how productive he is, who I know doesn't put the team first.

Now, I wouldn't trade him just to trade him, but if the right deal was available, where the Reds got a premium player back, I would make it.

Perhaps he feels that if Yonder is at 1st and he's in LF, that would weaken the team defensively at two positions and hurt the team rather than helping it. I've seen Votto play LF and next to him, Gomes looks like a Gold Glover.

steig
08-19-2011, 09:31 AM
If any player is under contract they should go and play the position the manager tells them to play and work on the playing what ever position the team requests. The team is still the boss. I don't get to pick and choose which projects I want to do for work. I'm told this is what the company is doing and here is what you need to accomplish. Votto could probably be a better left fielder than Alonso. If Votto wants to test free agency then I don't see any reason the Reds should give into his wishes of only playing first base. The team needs to put the best team on the field. I'm hoping that the Bautista for Votto discussions start up again this winter because I think the team would be better off for the next several years.

Mario-Rijo
08-19-2011, 09:33 AM
If any player is under contract they should go and play the position the manager tells them to play and work on the playing what ever position the team requests. The team is still the boss. I don't get to pick and choose which projects I want to do for work. I'm told this is what the company is doing and here is what you need to accomplish. Votto could probably be a better left fielder than Alonso. If Votto wants to test free agency then I don't see any reason the Reds should give into his wishes of only playing first base. The team needs to put the best team on the field. I'm hoping that the Bautista for Votto discussions start up again this winter because I think the team would be better off for the next several years.

Well he does, they have told him to get his 1st base mitt and get his butt out there. Because that is what is best for this team.

dougdirt
08-19-2011, 09:35 AM
I disagree. Such a move weakens us at two positions. I'd much rather trade Alonso for a decent LFer and leave the sensitive Votto alone

It wouldn't weaken you at two positions. It may weaken you defensively at two spots, but overall you are going to be a better team with Votto in left and Alonso at first than with Votto at first and any option we are going to get for Alonso or from our other options in left.

Not that it matters. Votto clearly isn't going to move there and the team clearly isn't going to ask him/tell him to go there.

dougdirt
08-19-2011, 09:37 AM
I'd be flippant to if somebody offered me A.) A brand new Corvette or B.) a brand new Pinto. Or to put it another way, don't ask a dumb question (no doubt one he has heard at least a half dozen times) if you don't want me to be dismissive of it. His attitude reflects the nature of the situation, he knows along with apparently only a few others that even asking him to consider playing LF in no way shape or form helps this team. And the simple fact that so many don't get it flat out is annoying to him and everyone else who sees the wrong in it.

Hey Cueto how about you move to the pen to make room for Volquez or Wood, I mean you can be solid pitching either right?

I know let's run this MVP out of town because he won't consider making us worse. Thank you Joey for standing up for yourself and the team (a somehow overlooked aspect of your comments).

Sorry, but telling Cueto to go to the bullpen (where he would pitch 1/3rd of the innings and entirely changing his role) is in no way comparable to telling Votto to go play left field.

RichRed
08-19-2011, 09:40 AM
Yep.

Votto seems to be a very smart and very complicated guy.

He could very well have issues with the REDS which might induce him to look for greener pastures in the future. I could think of a few.

1) Holding him back in the minors, apparently to delay his clock. (Include the first pitch take rule, which hurt his numbers while it was in effect).
2) Surrounding him with very average hitters in the lineup, limiting his ability to perform.
3) Having to play under a "sound-bite" savvy, but strategically challenged manager.
4) Limited opportunities to win, given budget/market constraints.

But Votto has never said as much, at least directly, nor should he.
Good for him.

Alonso may be a good hitter, but Votto is special. Losing him will be very, very tough to deal with.

Astute post. I'll add that Alonso might be the next Votto, or he might be Dan Driessen. And count me among those who think that moving Votto to LF probably weakens the Reds defensively at two positions.

Rightly or wrongly, Votto's comments seem to implicitly say, "Haven't I paid enough dues in this dopey organization?"

mdccclxix
08-19-2011, 09:41 AM
The funny part about all this is the difficulty we all have determining defensive ability. I mean, some on here claimed there would be no way Alonso could ever be worse than Gomes. Likewise, now were are hearing about how Alonso "might" not be bad at 1b, and Votto "might" not be bad in LF. These are not the sureties an MLB team can afford to use with player decisions. This is what gets me, and Lance McAlister is the worst, we fans cannot possibly know or see as much as scouts and managers, yet if we always sling crap at the wall, sometimes we'll be right. If you don't like what's been done with Alonso and Frazier, men without a clear position, why do you want to mess with Votto too? This isn't a Votto problem.

mdccclxix
08-19-2011, 09:44 AM
It wouldn't weaken you at two positions. It may weaken you defensively at two spots, but overall you are going to be a better team with Votto in left and Alonso at first than with Votto at first and any option we are going to get for Alonso or from our other options in left.

Not that it matters. Votto clearly isn't going to move there and the team clearly isn't going to ask him/tell him to go there.

You can't be sure about that. There are a lot of teams in need of offense and Alonso could be a Konerko type piece that brings back a Casey. Walt has shown he's not going to take pennies on the dollar for our prospects.

dougdirt
08-19-2011, 09:46 AM
The funny part about all this is the difficulty we all have determining defensive ability. I mean, some on here claimed there would be no way Alonso could ever be worse than Gomes. Likewise, now were are hearing about how Alonso "might" not be bad at 1b, and Votto "might" not be bad in LF. These are not the sureties an MLB team can afford to use with player decisions. This is what gets me, and Lance McAlister is the worst, we fans cannot possibly know or see as much as scouts and managers, yet if we always sling crap at the wall, sometimes we'll be right. If you don't like what's been done with Alonso and Frazier, men without a clear position, why do you want to mess with Votto too? This isn't a Votto problem.

I still contend that Alonso isn't hardly any worse than Gomes is. Using a 4 game sample is never going to change that. Baseball America talked to scouts who said Votto is the best defensive first baseman in the NL. But three weeks ago he looked absolutely brutal over at first base for about a week straight.

As for Alonso at first base.... I have seen him there. He is fine.

With Votto in left. Also seen him there. Also fine.

And while this isn't exactly a Votto problem, he could easily provide a simple solution that is very likely to be the most beneficial for the Reds. But he isn't offering that solution at all and seems adamantly opposed to the idea of even being asked about it.

lollipopcurve
08-19-2011, 09:47 AM
You can't be sure about that. There are a lot of teams in need of offense and Alonso could be a Konerko type piece that brings back a Casey.

So, you deal a good prospect for another good prospect. Then, in a couple years, Votto walks away for draft picks (or prospects).

Compare that to holding onto your good prospect, and getting Bautista, who's under control for 4-5 years, for Votto.

No brainer, IMO.

Sea Ray
08-19-2011, 09:55 AM
Compared to what? With work, Votto probably ends up a decent LF, and Alonso may be adequate at 1st. Factor in the overall offensive upgrade and it becomes a win for the team.

Compared to what we have now. Votto will be a worse LFer than Heisey and Alonzo will be worse than Votto. If you feel differently then that's where we disagree. Your projections may differ

Sea Ray
08-19-2011, 10:01 AM
Not that it matters. Votto clearly isn't going to move there and the team clearly isn't going to ask him/tell him to go there.

They aren't going to push the move because they know it'll weaken them defensively and Walt values defense. Why go there? Getting a young LFer for a young 1B is a fair return. If we're that hellbent and cramming Alonso into the lineup, trade him for another part and leave Votto alone

Sea Ray
08-19-2011, 10:05 AM
I still contend that Alonso isn't hardly any worse than Gomes is. Using a 4 game sample is never going to change that. Baseball America talked to scouts who said Votto is the best defensive first baseman in the NL. But three weeks ago he looked absolutely brutal over at first base for about a week straight.

As for Alonso at first base.... I have seen him there. He is fine.

With Votto in left. Also seen him there. Also fine.

And while this isn't exactly a Votto problem, he could easily provide a simple solution that is very likely to be the most beneficial for the Reds. But he isn't offering that solution at all and seems adamantly opposed to the idea of even being asked about it.

We're not talking baseball cards here. These are real people we're talking about. Votto is the type of guy who would insist on working day and night to learn the LF position--if he buys into the idea--and this effort will take away from his energies he currently devotes to hitting. We're not talking Pete Rose here. It's not a fit

dougdirt
08-19-2011, 10:05 AM
Why go there?

Because it makes the team better than just about any other move that you are going to be able to make using either Votto or Alonso or both.

lollipopcurve
08-19-2011, 10:06 AM
Votto is the type of guy who would insist on working day and night to learn the LF position--if he buys into the idea--and this effort will take away from his energies he currently devotes to hitting

Votto has worked very hard to become the 1st baseman he is, and 1B is a far more complex position than LF. Has that affected his hitting?

dougdirt
08-19-2011, 10:07 AM
We're not talking baseball cards here. These are real people we're talking about. Votto is the type of guy who would insist on working day and night to learn the LF position--if he buys into the idea--and this effort will take away from his energies he currently devotes to hitting. We're not talking Pete Rose here. It's not a fit

Oh come on. Do you really think that Joey Votto is going to forget about hitting? Do you really think that he doesn't work on his defense at first base now and that time would simply be replaced by time working in left?

Votto has played left before. It isn't like they are asking him to go to shortstop where he clearly doesn't have the skills to play there. They would be asking him to go to a position he has played before.

mdccclxix
08-19-2011, 10:14 AM
I still contend that Alonso isn't hardly any worse than Gomes is. Using a 4 game sample is never going to change that. Baseball America talked to scouts who said Votto is the best defensive first baseman in the NL. But three weeks ago he looked absolutely brutal over at first base for about a week straight.

As for Alonso at first base.... I have seen him there. He is fine.

With Votto in left. Also seen him there. Also fine.

And while this isn't exactly a Votto problem, he could easily provide a simple solution that is very likely to be the most beneficial for the Reds. But he isn't offering that solution at all and seems adamantly opposed to the idea of even being asked about it.

Gomes is much faster than Alonso, so if they both have poor instincts or reactions, then Gomes will still come out ahead.

Whatever it is that drives Votto to be great also seems to keep him from just tossing willy nilly from one position to the next. If I'm the Reds, I ask him to be open to the idea during the offseason so he has time to prepare the way he'd like. Personally, I can't see him being great out there like he is at 1b, as he's not very fast himself. I also don't know how his arm looks out there, etc.

Oneupper's list of things Votto might hold against the Reds could include, DRAFTING ALONSO when he was already proving his wares at 1b. It probably fired him up a little bit and may have sent the wrong message. Now the day has come where everyone's asking Joey to move and I don't blame him for not wanting to budge.

puca
08-19-2011, 10:15 AM
They aren't going to push the move because they know it'll weaken them defensively and Walt values defense. Why go there? Getting a young LFer for a young 1B is a fair return. If we're that hellbent and cramming Alonso into the lineup, trade him for another part and leave Votto alone

Not sure there is a ton of value in a 1b prospect. You would likely need to bundle him with other prospects to get a similar young OF bat. A former MVP on the otherhand has unquestionable value.

Thats not to say they SHOULD trade Votto, but they should certainly not discount the idea offhand.

Sea Ray
08-19-2011, 10:20 AM
Oh come on. Do you really think that Joey Votto is going to forget about hitting? Do you really think that he doesn't work on his defense at first base now and that time would simply be replaced by time working in left?

Votto has played left before. It isn't like they are asking him to go to shortstop where he clearly doesn't have the skills to play there. They would be asking him to go to a position he has played before.

I think he'd get pissed and sulk, especially if it didn't workout andwe don't need that from our MVP

traderumor
08-19-2011, 10:21 AM
So Votto meets the girl of his dreams who demands that they stay in Cincy. As Nationwide put it, "life comes at you fast," so much hand wringing over whether Votto will leave for FA at his first chance or not is wasted energy at this point.

If the Reds want to deal him because they can sell high, now that's a horse of a different color. That I would consider, but it would have nothing to do with what he might be thinking about LTC two seasons from now. Baseball is a very short-term business, almost like dealing with penny stocks.

Sea Ray
08-19-2011, 10:23 AM
Not sure there is a ton of value in a 1b prospect. You would likely need to bundle him with other prospects to get a similar young OF bat. A former MVP on the otherhand has unquestionable value.

Thats not to say they SHOULD trade Votto, but they should certainly not discount the idea offhand.

Smoak was the primary piece in a trade of Cliff Lee who was hugely in demand at the time. My guess is the M's could have gotten a LF prospect if they'd chosen to.

No question Votto has more value than Alonso and that option should be explored as well

dougdirt
08-19-2011, 10:24 AM
Oneupper's list of things Votto might hold against the Reds could include, DRAFTING ALONSO when he was already proving his wares at 1b. It probably fired him up a little bit and may have sent the wrong message. Now the day has come where everyone's asking Joey to move and I don't blame him for not wanting to budge.
If Votto can't put together than he was a rookie with 3 months in the Majors at the time of the draft and that the best plan in baseball drafts is to take the best player available, then that is something that someone should really explain to him. This isn't a case where the Reds drafted Alonso this season and decided he was MLB ready the day they drafted him and called him up. For him to be bitter over the Reds drafting Alonso when Votto had 3 months time in the Majors is utterly ridiculous. Not that it may not be going on, because it could be. But its a very poor and stupid stance to have if it were the case that Votto were trying to present.

REDREAD
08-19-2011, 10:28 AM
I disagree. Such a move weakens us at two positions. I'd much rather trade Alonso for a decent LFer and leave the sensitive Votto alone

Yes, I agree 1000%.. I never understood why this "move Votto to LF" thing got so much momentum. I guess some bored sportswriter stirred it up and just won't let it die.

Maybe Votto knows he can't play LF and is just admiting it? Why should he be forced to embarass himself on the field to accomodate the unproven Alonso.
Life doesn't work that way.

Someone else made an excellent point. Why waste 1-2 years of having Votto "adjust" to LF (no guarantee he ever will).. What's the point?
IMO, it's a similiar argument with Chapman.. He's kicking butt in the pen and is getting paid a good paycheck.. Why invest the time and money on the learning curve to make Chapman a starter? Make Chapman the closer and enjoy a relatively cheap dominating closer.

Roy Tucker
08-19-2011, 10:30 AM
If Votto can't put together than he was a rookie with 3 months in the Majors at the time of the draft and that the best plan in baseball drafts is to take the best player available, then that is something that someone should really explain to him. This isn't a case where the Reds drafted Alonso this season and decided he was MLB ready the day they drafted him and called him up. For him to be bitter over the Reds drafting Alonso when Votto had 3 months time in the Majors is utterly ridiculous. Not that it may not be going on, because it could be. But its a very poor and stupid stance to have if it were the case that Votto were trying to present.

Yep. And Scott Hatteberg was getting the major share of PT at 1B at the time.

lollipopcurve
08-19-2011, 10:31 AM
Baseball is a very short-term business, almost like dealing with penny stocks.

On fan message boards, yes. In a front office, no.

bucksfan2
08-19-2011, 10:33 AM
If you even thinking about trading Votto you need to win that trade both at the time and 4-5 years down the road. You need to win the trade like Texas won the Josh Hamilton trade. You need to replace Votto with an MVP caliber player in the future.

The thing is the Reds aren't in a rebuilding state. They are in a competitive window and trading Votto would pretty much decimate that competitive window. You can't trade one of the best hitters in the game and hope to get better in the short term.

If it were up to me I would treat Votto just like the Brewers have treated Fielder. You try to win with him, not trade him. The Reds have a 2+ year negotiating window to work out a new deal with Votto. And I have never heard him say "I don't want to play in Cincinnati after my contract expires". There has been a lot of reading of the tea leafs and a ton of assumptions made about Votto. None of them are based upon facts. I want the Reds to go all in before they trade Votto. The time to trade Votto is in the summer of 2013 not in the near term.

lollipopcurve
08-19-2011, 10:34 AM
You need to replace Votto with an MVP caliber player in the future.

Does Bautista qualify?

_Sir_Charles_
08-19-2011, 10:36 AM
Because it makes the team better than just about any other move that you are going to be able to make using either Votto or Alonso or both.

I disagree. Votto may be better than Yonder in left. MAY be better. Votto is definitely better than Yonder at 1st. The switch most definitely will hurt us defensively at 2 positions...that is without question. So if the goal is to get Yonder's bat in the lineup...then fine. Put it in there. At left. One weak position slotted next to a speedy Drew Stubbs...I think THAT is the best option.

Yonder will make the routine plays, he'll struggle for the difficult ones....but with repetition...he'll improve. Leave him out there.

REDREAD
08-19-2011, 10:36 AM
For the people that want to move Votto to LF.

Do you remember when Aaron Boone was moved to 2b to accomodate the wonderkid Brandon Larson?

Remember what a disaster that was? Boone worked hard and was willing to try it, but it was still a disaster. Even if Larson ended up being an adequate player, Boone was really struggling to play defense at 2b and it did effect his hitting (IIRC).. Boone said he never got comfortable there.

_Sir_Charles_
08-19-2011, 10:37 AM
Does Bautista qualify?

Let's not all assume that this is a done deal if the Reds pull the trigger. It was a rumor fellas. Toronto may have absolutely no plans or interest in dealing away Bautista. Let's not assume it's true based on a rumor.

lollipopcurve
08-19-2011, 10:38 AM
For the people that want to move Votto to LF.

Do you remember when Aaron Boone was moved to 2b to accomodate the wonderkid Brandon Larson?

Remember what a disaster that was? Boone worked hard and was willing to try it, but it was still a disaster. Even if Larson ended up being an adequate player, Boone was really struggling to play defense at 2b and it did effect his hitting (IIRC).. Boone said he never got comfortable there.

We're talking LF. Where Adam Dunn and Manny Ramirez roamed.

Votto has played there. He was adequate.

lollipopcurve
08-19-2011, 10:40 AM
Let's not all assume that this is a done deal if the Reds pull the trigger. It was a rumor fellas. Toronto may have absolutely no plans or interest in dealing away Bautista. Let's not assume it's true based on a rumor.

What?

We're just mulling over whether Bautista would be a fair return.

bucksfan2
08-19-2011, 10:43 AM
We're talking LF. Where Adam Dunn and Manny Ramirez roamed.

Votto has played there. He was adequate.

Votto has also played 1b. He was MVP caliber there.

lollipopcurve
08-19-2011, 10:46 AM
Votto has also played 1b. He was MVP caliber there.

An MVP caliber bat at 1B is also an MVP caliber bat in LF.

redsfaninbsg
08-19-2011, 11:00 AM
I haven't read all of this but, the fact the Reds and/or Reds fans talk about trading Votto while bashing Bruce (some, not all) is insane to me. I thought this organization was trying to win, not be a laughing stock, again. Maybe I got spoiled by 2010 but, I have a sick feeling that come 2015 this team will be like the lost decade when the only reason I turn in every night is to watch Jay Bruce (assuming he's not been ran out of town by that point).

mdccclxix
08-19-2011, 11:01 AM
Yep. And Scott Hatteberg was getting the major share of PT at 1B at the time.

Votto was in 52 of the 56 games and played on May 31, 2008 and every one at 1b while batting .850+ OPS. It appears to me he was the starter by that point. Hatteburg had 61 PA's for Cincinnati in 2008. It wasn't dead set, but it was pretty clear the Reds had a nice little hitter on their hands for the next 6 years. Then they drafted a quick moving 1b/DH as the BPA claiming it was basically as a trade piece. I'm just surmising that it could have provided fuel. Now that trade piece needs his job to play for the Reds. It's messy.

lollipopcurve
08-19-2011, 11:13 AM
It's messy.

It's also a good problem to have.

PuffyPig
08-19-2011, 11:19 AM
If you even thinking about trading Votto you need to win that trade both at the time and 4-5 years down the road.


You can't trade Votto and win the trade now. You hope to win it in the future.

Caveat Emperor
08-19-2011, 11:21 AM
Here's the key question --

If you project that Alonso is an ~.850 OPS bat at 1st base while Votto is a ~.975 OPS bat at 1st, is the difference between those two players worth NOT also having what Votto would bring in return for a trade?

What gives the Reds a better chance to win in 2012:

1. .850 OPS Alonso @ 1B + TOR Starter or Power Hitting LF
2. .975 OPS Votto @ 1B + In-House 5th Starter or In-House LF

puca
08-19-2011, 11:21 AM
If I recall correctly the Reds spent some time trying to convert Votto to LF in AAA. Not that it has any bearing on the discussion, but interesting none the less.

For a mid-budget team to be successful long-term they also need to understand when to flip its talent - and I don't only mean the young talent.

Again, I wouldn't go into the offseason trying to trade Votto, but I certainly explore it. The goal in the offseason is to improve the Reds for 2012 while hopefully not mortgaging the future. Certainly there are possible scenerios in which trading Votto will improve the Reds in 2012.

A young 1b is probably not going to fetch a young corner OF with a comparible bat - unless the young 1b was consider gold-glove caliber and/or the LF was a butcher with the glove. I imagine it is hard to trade up the defensive spectrum without sacrificing offense.

puca
08-19-2011, 11:24 AM
You can't trade Votto and win the trade now. You hope to win it in the future.

It depends on your definition of winnig the trade now. If you mean improve the team for 2012 by trading Votto, I certainly think it is possible. Difficult, but possible.

RedsManRick
08-19-2011, 11:53 AM
Votto being clear about wanting to test FA is very, very helpful for the club. Having that certainty allows us to make an informed decision about how best to maximize the value he represents.

mdccclxix
08-19-2011, 11:57 AM
Besides Bautista, there really aren't a lot of viable options for trading Votto for a fair price. Either the other superstars are locked up to fat contracts, or getting too old, or a bad fit on the Reds team, or too cheap and on a low market team, etc. It's very unlikely the Reds find a good fit and come out ahead in a deal for Votto. I just don't see the very careful Jocketty doing anything. In fact, I'll predict Votto is a Red until the trade deadline 2013 or beyond if we are contending that year. I think there is a chance that if this team finishes OK this year and makes the playoffs next that the Reds will look at how to sign Votto. It may be a waste of resources according to the Marlin's model, but the Reds don't see themselves that way. Above all, I predict the Reds will deal with Votto in a fair and professional way. All this trade talk is surprisingly ahead of schedule. When we discovered Votto the MVP it was pretty well known he ought to be a Red until at least his last year of eligibility. Votto is only 9 mil next year, let's try to win a WS for crying out loud. The year after that Votto will only be 17 mil, which is right below market value, so no team will hold that against the Reds in a potential deal. As it stands teams like the Rays won't be in the market for Votto anyway.

IslandRed
08-19-2011, 12:23 PM
The thing is the Reds aren't in a rebuilding state. They are in a competitive window and trading Votto would pretty much decimate that competitive window. You can't trade one of the best hitters in the game and hope to get better in the short term.

If it were up to me I would treat Votto just like the Brewers have treated Fielder. You try to win with him, not trade him.

That's how I look at it, too. I certainly agree with the notion of selling high etc., but sometimes that's not the most important thing going on. Votto shouldn't be traded unless it makes the Reds better, now.

Raisor
08-19-2011, 12:28 PM
if he didnt want to be a team player he shouldve played tennis

oh please.

mdccclxix
08-19-2011, 12:29 PM
That's how I look at it, too. I certainly agree with the notion of selling high etc., but sometimes that's not the most important thing going on. Votto shouldn't be traded unless it makes the Reds better, now.

I agree, and IMO he'll bring an impressive return at the 2013 deadline anyway, if that's the circumstance.

lollipopcurve
08-19-2011, 01:13 PM
IMO he'll bring an impressive return at the 2013 deadline anyway

No chance of that, IMO. 2 months of play at whatever cost prorates from a 17MM salary? Reds would net a top flight prospect -- at best.

Caveat Emperor
08-19-2011, 01:20 PM
No chance of that, IMO. 2 months of play at whatever cost prorates from a 17MM salary? Reds would net a top flight prospect -- at best.

If anything, we've seen the market for rent-a-players has been fairly dry.

reds1869
08-19-2011, 01:26 PM
If any player is under contract they should go and play the position the manager tells them to play and work on the playing what ever position the team requests. The team is still the boss. I don't get to pick and choose which projects I want to do for work. I'm told this is what the company is doing and here is what you need to accomplish.

I'm not sure if that flies in your work environment, but I'm quite thankful it doesn't in mine. Maybe that kind of mentality works at the old corporate 9-5 entry level desk job, but it certainly doesn't in a talent driven business like baseball where you can't just replace a top producer with an equal level of production at will. If a team develops a reputation as one that bullies players, guess how many free agents will be interested in playing there?

mdccclxix
08-19-2011, 01:34 PM
No chance of that, IMO. 2 months of play at whatever cost prorates from a 17MM salary? Reds would net a top flight prospect -- at best.

Nothing wrong with that. It will be a bitter disappointment if the Reds fail in 2012 and 2013, so I hope it doesn't come to that - with all that's left being a trade deadline deal for a top prospect, or perhaps the 2 supplemental picks he'll bring. However, punting 2012 and 2013 for fear of losing Votto for less value isn't really a good idea. There are very few ways to upgrade from Votto, who is like top 3 in WAR the last 2-3 years combined. It sounds good, it's probably good practice to consider anything to upgrade the team, but in the end it's just darn difficult to upgrade from Votto's forthcoming 28-29 year old seasons. It would be a very rare high profile deal, not really Walt's MO. If he "hates dealing prospects", how does he feel about trading MVP's? The plan is to win now and win later, a key component is attendance, which cannot suffer a decline, it has to climb to 2.5+ next year and close to 3 mil the year after, then we're looking at lot's of winning during that time and beyond. That's the plan, win and make money.

reds1869
08-19-2011, 01:52 PM
Nothing wrong with that. It will be a bitter disappointment if the Reds fail in 2012 and 2013, so I hope it doesn't come to that - with all that's left being a trade deadline deal for a top prospect, or perhaps the 2 supplemental picks he'll bring. However, punting 2012 and 2013 for fear of losing Votto for less value isn't really a good idea. There are very few ways to upgrade from Votto, who is like top 3 in WAR the last 2-3 years combined. It sounds good, it's probably good practice to consider anything to upgrade the team, but in the end it's just darn difficult to upgrade from Votto's forthcoming 28-29 year old seasons. It would be a very rare high profile deal, not really Walt's MO. If he "hates dealing prospects", how does he feel about trading MVP's? The plan is to win now and win later, a key component is attendance, which cannot suffer a decline, it has to climb to 2.5+ next year and close to 3 mil the year after, then we're looking at lot's of winning during that time and beyond. That's the plan, win and make money.

Excellent post. For too long Cincinnati fans have been conditioned to "wait 'til next year." It is very possible to win now and win later, even in a small market. But you can't just go dealing your best players unless you get an unbelievable return.

bucksfan2
08-19-2011, 01:55 PM
No chance of that, IMO. 2 months of play at whatever cost prorates from a 17MM salary? Reds would net a top flight prospect -- at best.

Yea and it would give them a damn good shot at winning the division two years running. You think Brewers fans are upset the Brewers didn't look to trade Prince a year and a half ago? In essence that is what we are talking about here. Trading Votto because you don't know what will happen in 2+ years because some cryptic reading of the tea leaves.

Didn't the Rangers net a pretty attractive deal from the Braves for Texieria at the deadline?

kaldaniels
08-19-2011, 01:57 PM
Yea and it would give them a damn good shot at winning the division two years running. You think Brewers fans are upset the Brewers didn't look to trade Prince a year and a half ago? In essence that is what we are talking about here. Trading Votto because you don't know what will happen in 2+ years because some cryptic reading of the tea leaves.

Didn't the Rangers net a pretty attractive deal from the Braves for Texieria at the deadline?

The Brewers do have that Braun guy out in LF. Whatever move improves the team, I'm for. Easy enough.

Chip R
08-19-2011, 01:58 PM
Votto being clear about wanting to test FA is very, very helpful for the club. Having that certainty allows us to make an informed decision about how best to maximize the value he represents.

I understand Walt is going to try again to sign Votto to a longer extention in the off-season. If he does, great. If he wants things to remain status quo, I hope Walt lets him know that if he doesn't sign a longer deal, there's always the possibility of trading him in the next 2 years. Having Yonder around is a reminder that while Votto is a great player, he can be replaced cheaply. Votto's no dummy. He knows the Reds can't offer the world to him and Yonder is waiting in the wings. It's not like the Pujols situation in StL where if they traded him, anything they got would look like a joke and fans would be up in arms if he left. Fans would be angry here if Votto left but I think it's safe to say he doesn't mean as much to Reds fans as Pujols does to StL fans.

bucksfan2
08-19-2011, 02:05 PM
The Brewers do have that Braun guy out in LF. Whatever move improves the team, I'm for. Easy enough.

Well the Reds have that guy named Bruce out in RF. I agree whatever move helps the team but as a fan and someone who sees a competitive club I want to see an effort to win now, not keep kicking the can down the road.

Kc61
08-19-2011, 02:06 PM
I probably already said this in this very thread.

Reds should not trade Votto now. They will never get equal value. He is a very special hitter.

Next year Votto is a signed player. Hopefully the team will be good. He will be a big part of it.

The year after is more tricky -- but that's a ways off.

I honestly believe the Reds will not trade Votto now. They signed him for a reason, to have him for at least his arb years. Next year is part of that window.

All this talk about LF for Votto is just nonsense in my view. The guy is a star player at first base and should stay there.

Yes, the Reds could suffer in 2014 if Votto leaves with no return or little return. But I'm not willing to sacrifice 2012 or 2013 just yet.

westofyou
08-19-2011, 02:11 PM
It's great that Votto is so selfish (sic) it takes the heat off Bruces glaring inconstancy and the noise it generates.

Votto... What would Branch Rickey do?

PuffyPig
08-19-2011, 02:34 PM
if he didnt want to be a team player he shouldve played tennis

Not relevant.

I've heard nothing to suggest Votto is not a great teammate.

Team players are allowed to change teams.

Apples and oranges.

RedsManRick
08-19-2011, 03:07 PM
I understand Walt is going to try again to sign Votto to a longer extention in the off-season. If he does, great. If he wants things to remain status quo, I hope Walt lets him know that if he doesn't sign a longer deal, there's always the possibility of trading him in the next 2 years. Having Yonder around is a reminder that while Votto is a great player, he can be replaced cheaply. Votto's no dummy. He knows the Reds can't offer the world to him and Yonder is waiting in the wings. It's not like the Pujols situation in StL where if they traded him, anything they got would look like a joke and fans would be up in arms if he left. Fans would be angry here if Votto left but I think it's safe to say he doesn't mean as much to Reds fans as Pujols does to StL fans.

Either way, I think it's pretty clear that if both Votto and Alonso are Reds in 2012, something went wrong.

klw
08-19-2011, 03:08 PM
Oops nothing to see here. We can cancel the thread.


Mark Sheldon clarifies the original FA quote.
http://twitter.com/#!/m_sheldon

@csolomon15 I should said the 3-yr signing sent a signal he would test FA. He did not make clear. My fault.

This is the Tweet he to which he was responding:

http://twitter.com/#!/csolomon15

csolomon15 Chris Solomon
@
@m_sheldon Nice hack job on the votto article. How has votto made it "clear" he's testing FAgency? Quote?

Hoosier Red
08-19-2011, 03:08 PM
Yep.

Votto seems to be a very smart and very complicated guy.

He could very well have issues with the REDS which might induce him to look for greener pastures in the future. I could think of a few.

1) Holding him back in the minors, apparently to delay his clock. (Include the first pitch take rule, which hurt his numbers while it was in effect).
2) Surrounding him with very average hitters in the lineup, limiting his ability to perform.
3) Having to play under a "sound-bite" savvy, but strategically challenged manager.
4) Limited opportunities to win, given budget/market constraints.

But Votto has never said as much, at least directly, nor should he.
Good for him.

Alonso may be a good hitter, but Votto is special. Losing him will be very, very tough to deal with.

I hate to call you out, but things like this are how rumors get started.
1) The first pitch take rule didn't slow him down from advancing through the minors fairly quickly. I don't believe O'Brien and his staff were as concerned with his numbers as they were forcing every hitter to show some patience.

2) I don't think Votto really analyzes how mediocre the hitters are around him. Especially when they're largely the same guys who surrounded him last year when he was MVP.

3) I could be wrong, but I don't think most ball players take issue with Dusty. Sure he's strategically challenged as you put it, but he also has his players backs. Especially with the difficulty Votto went through, and the way Dusty tried to take care of him through that, I doubt he's really upset with the organization for foisting Dusty upon him.

4) There are limits to winning everywhere, and even the Yankees have a budget.

My guess is he'll look at how much the Reds are willing to pay him, compare that to what he can get on the open market, and then factor in how much the Reds will be able to spend on other useful parts if they spend a certain dollar figure on him.

Chip R
08-19-2011, 03:17 PM
Either way, I think it's pretty clear that if both Votto and Alonso are Reds in 2012, something went wrong.

Oh, I don't know about that. I think if Alonso is out of options he will make the team next year as a LH pinch hitter/backup 1B/occassional LFer and a subtle reminder to Votto that his replacement is on the major league team and he can either sign long-term or the Reds have the Alonso option. Not a thing wrong with that.

fearofpopvol1
08-19-2011, 03:23 PM
Oops nothing to see here. We can cancel the thread.


Mark Sheldon clarifies the original FA quote.
http://twitter.com/#!/m_sheldon


This is the Tweet he to which he was responding:

http://twitter.com/#!/csolomon15

So who at RZ is csolomon? It's clearly someone from here.

On an unrelated note, changing someone's thread title is lame.

Homer Bailey
08-19-2011, 03:28 PM
So who at RZ is csolomon? It's clearly someone from here.

On an unrelated note, changing someone's thread title is lame.

:wave:

PuffyPig
08-19-2011, 03:28 PM
Oops nothing to see here. We can cancel the thread.


Mark Sheldon clarifies the original FA quote.
http://twitter.com/#!/m_sheldon


This is the Tweet he to which he was responding:

http://twitter.com/#!/csolomon15

Which is exactly what I said in my earlier post. The writer made the assumpsion he would test FA becuase he only signed 3 year term.

Something that was speculated on previously.

There is absolutely nothing new here.

The title to this thread should be:

"Votto discusses possible move to LF; Nothing new on FA front".

TRF
08-19-2011, 03:49 PM
Can I just throw this out there?

Are we getting hot and bothered about a player (Alonso) that has never had a .900+ OPS season, ever as a professional?

really?

CTA513
08-19-2011, 03:51 PM
Trade Votto and Alonso for a first baseman and then move that first baseman to left field.

oneupper
08-19-2011, 03:59 PM
I hate to call you out, but things like this are how rumors get started.
1) The first pitch take rule didn't slow him down from advancing through the minors fairly quickly. I don't believe O'Brien and his staff were as concerned with his numbers as they were forcing every hitter to show some patience.

2) I don't think Votto really analyzes how mediocre the hitters are around him. Especially when they're largely the same guys who surrounded him last year when he was MVP.

3) I could be wrong, but I don't think most ball players take issue with Dusty. Sure he's strategically challenged as you put it, but he also has his players backs. Especially with the difficulty Votto went through, and the way Dusty tried to take care of him through that, I doubt he's really upset with the organization for foisting Dusty upon him.

4) There are limits to winning everywhere, and even the Yankees have a budget.

My guess is he'll look at how much the Reds are willing to pay him, compare that to what he can get on the open market, and then factor in how much the Reds will be able to spend on other useful parts if they spend a certain dollar figure on him.

It's cool. My post said that "I" could think of a few reasons. No rumors at all.
We have no idea about how Votto feels about these things because he hasn't said, and wouldn't say if asked either (nor should he).

But just for the sake of the argument, I'd say point 1), him being slow-tracked to the majors IS an issue. It certainly would be for me if I were in his shoes.

He was drafted the same year as Prince Fielder and this year Prince will be an FA, while Joey must wait two more years (Prince is slightly younger).
The slow-tracking cost him at least $25 million and who knows, maybe even the opportunity to be a HOFer eventually (fewer counting stats).
You can't get those years or that money back now.

If Votto doesn't resent this a little bit, well he's a bigger man than I am (which isn't that hard, I'm a spiteful weasel).

Chip R
08-19-2011, 04:03 PM
Can I just throw this out there?

Are we getting hot and bothered about a player (Alonso) that has never had a .900+ OPS season, ever as a professional?

really?

You've been around here for over 10 years. You should know better than to ask. ;)

TRF
08-19-2011, 04:03 PM
potential 1B in the organization for 2013 (assuming Votto is dealt)

Alonso
Frazier
Soto
Francisco
Dorn (he'll be about 50 then)
Grandal or Mes


none of these names include this year's draft. Soto might be the best bet if his patience at the plate continues to improve, or maybe the replacement at 1B isn't in the org yet. who knows? but the idea of trading Votto to make room for Yonder Alonso, a player that is inferior to Votto in EVERY FACET OF THE GAME.. well, that just ent right.

TRF
08-19-2011, 04:03 PM
You've been around here for over 10 years. You should know better than to ask. ;)

You'd think huh? still boggles my mind.

Hoosier Red
08-19-2011, 04:08 PM
If Votto doesn't resent this a little bit, well he's a bigger man than I am (which isn't that hard, I'm a spiteful weasel).

I was going to respond, but this line was so funny I simply bow to the brilliance and call it a day.

Roy Tucker
08-19-2011, 04:14 PM
Trade Votto and Alonso for a first baseman and then move that first baseman to left field.

Sean Casey might be up for a comeback. :)

dougdirt
08-19-2011, 04:14 PM
but the idea of trading Votto to make room for Yonder Alonso, a player that is inferior to Votto in EVERY FACET OF THE GAME.. well, that just ent right.

It isn't trading Votto to make room for Alonso, it would be trading Votto to make your team better and win more games. No one thinks Alonso is better than Votto, but there is a solid argument to be made that Alonso at first + a trade haul for Votto would generate more wins for the Reds than Votto + a trade haul for Alonso.

TRF
08-19-2011, 05:09 PM
It isn't trading Votto to make room for Alonso, it would be trading Votto to make your team better and win more games. No one thinks Alonso is better than Votto, but there is a solid argument to be made that Alonso at first + a trade haul for Votto would generate more wins for the Reds than Votto + a trade haul for Alonso.

maybe. it depends on the haul of course, and assuming the team understands its needs. when it needed a SS, it got a CF (Taveras) When it needs a LF it got another SS. When it needed a 3B, it did nothing.

So yeah, Votto can bring in a huge haul, especially if traded this off season. But realistically, if the baseball world thinks he's going to test free agency, his value is lowered a bit unless it is a team that thinks it has a window to win in 2012-13.

lollipopcurve
08-19-2011, 05:16 PM
But realistically, if the baseball world thinks he's going to test free agency, his value is lowered a bit unless it is a team that thinks it has a window to win in 2012-13.

My take is that Toronto may have extra incentive to acquire him now. Getting him into town for a couple years will make it difficult for Votto to bid goodbye to his hometown in 2014, should he get to the precipice of free agency. They're essentially the same team with Votto as they are with Bautista -- except that Joey meshes with their plan to market the team as a national resource. He is the best possible face to put on that franchise, period.

dougdirt
08-19-2011, 05:27 PM
My take is that Toronto may have extra incentive to acquire him now. Getting him into town for a couple years will make it difficult for Votto to bid goodbye to his hometown in 2014, should he get to the precipice of free agency. They're essentially the same team with Votto as they are with Bautista -- except that Joey meshes with their plan to market the team as a national resource. He is the best possible face to put on that franchise, period.

This. Times 100.

The Blue Jays are the team you deal him to if you are going to deal him because they are probably the team willing to give the most for him and they also have the parts that fill your team needs.

Mario-Rijo
08-19-2011, 06:11 PM
It isn't trading Votto to make room for Alonso, it would be trading Votto to make your team better and win more games. No one thinks Alonso is better than Votto, but there is a solid argument to be made that Alonso at first + a trade haul for Votto would generate more wins for the Reds than Votto + a trade haul for Alonso.

When is the last time Walt got a good haul for anyone? What all this talk is doing is helping to scare public opinion into dealing a legitimate MVP. The scribes see it here and then write about it and then the masses get freaked out and before you know it bam Votto gone and bupkus remains!

mth123
08-19-2011, 07:16 PM
If you even thinking about trading Votto you need to win that trade both at the time and 4-5 years down the road. You need to win the trade like Texas won the Josh Hamilton trade. You need to replace Votto with an MVP caliber player in the future.

The thing is the Reds aren't in a rebuilding state. They are in a competitive window and trading Votto would pretty much decimate that competitive window. You can't trade one of the best hitters in the game and hope to get better in the short term.

If it were up to me I would treat Votto just like the Brewers have treated Fielder. You try to win with him, not trade him. The Reds have a 2+ year negotiating window to work out a new deal with Votto. And I have never heard him say "I don't want to play in Cincinnati after my contract expires". There has been a lot of reading of the tea leafs and a ton of assumptions made about Votto. None of them are based upon facts. I want the Reds to go all in before they trade Votto. The time to trade Votto is in the summer of 2013 not in the near term.

:thumbup:

Scrap Irony
08-19-2011, 07:17 PM
Three thoughts:

1. If you can get Bautista for Votto (as was the rumor), it probably makes the Reds a better team for the short run.

Phillips 2B
Heisey/ Sappelt LF or Cozart SS
Alonso 1B
Bautista 3B
Bruce RF
Stubbs CF
Mesoraco/ Hanigan C
Cozart SS or Sappelt/ Heisey LF

No real weaknesses in that lineup and at least one other opportunity to find an excellent bat in LF (if money permits).

2. If the Reds decide to deal Votto for prospects, it's extremely unlikely the team could continue to compete next season unless either Alonso or Bruce turns into an MVP-level bat (while the other OPSes 875+).

The power OF bats available in the free agent market include pretty much only Carlos Beltran (who is likely headed to Boston). Nick Swisher, for example, would be a great bat-- as long as he's not taking Votto's spot in the three hole. In fact, there's not a player on the FA market (aside from Pujols and Fielder, both of whom play 1B exclusively) that approaches Votto's impact on this team. (That makes sense, of course.)

However, dealing Votto could, if played properly, make a positive impact in that nebulous future we are so incredibly enamored with. A deal to Texas for Jurickson Profar and Martin Perez, for example, would make sense for both teams. (And would make the Rangers the odds-on favorite to win the World Series in 2012.)

This assumes, of course, the Reds spend that cash they would have spent on Votto on a TOR starter. Or two. Which are available (kind of) on the FA or trade market. Adding a James Shields (would Stubbs, Grandal, Wood, and Bailey get it done? I think it might.) to highlight a rotation that also includes CJ Wilson, Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, and Aroldis Chapman would make this team a solid contender beyond 2012.

Phillips 2B
Sappelt CF
Alonso 1B
Bruce RF
Mesoraco C
Frazier/ Rolen 3B
Heisey LF
Cozart SS

3. My worst nightmare, in this situation, is that Votto goes free agent. To St. Louis. Or Milwaukee.

mth123
08-19-2011, 07:21 PM
Here's the key question --

If you project that Alonso is an ~.850 OPS bat at 1st base while Votto is a ~.975 OPS bat at 1st, is the difference between those two players worth NOT also having what Votto would bring in return for a trade?

What gives the Reds a better chance to win in 2012:

1. .850 OPS Alonso @ 1B + TOR Starter or Power Hitting LF
2. .975 OPS Votto @ 1B + In-House 5th Starter or In-House LF

How about door number 3? .975 OPS Votto and way better than in house starter or LF who is acquired in a deal where Alonso is the central player from the Reds side.

Caveat Emperor
08-19-2011, 08:55 PM
How about door number 3? .975 OPS Votto and way better than in house starter or LF who is acquired in a deal where Alonso is the central player from the Reds side.

1. If Alonso had any trade value at all, he'd have been out the door this offseason or at the deadline. You don't spend time working a prospect out in LF and 3B if there are people willing to take him off your hands to give you those things.

2. And what happens in Door 3 when Votto bolts after 2013, as every indication seems to point to?

Mario-Rijo
08-19-2011, 09:32 PM
How about door number 3? .975 OPS Votto and way better than in house starter or LF who is acquired in a deal where Alonso is the central player from the Reds side.

I still think an Alonso to Tampa makes sense. I'd deal him for Upton or Jennings (Upton being the most likely to be dealt). I want this team to compete now and dealing Alonso doesn't hurt the future of this team in any way, shape or form. I realize Upton is basically like having another more expensive though better version of Stubbs but that ain't the worse thing in the world. Besides perhaps a Stubbs+ (or Upton) package could then help procure Bautista. I still maintain can be had without giving up Votto.

wlf WV
08-19-2011, 09:46 PM
My turn.All this speculation because our MVP answered a question intelligently and honestly.I don't think you can sincerely say that there were any underlining currents there at the time of the interview.Most of this discussion is biased because some are enamored with Bautista,others Joey.If I had the confidence in Bautista,I had in Votto,I would do the deal(with Votto's blessing;if there was a deal),but I don't.Therein lies the rub to me.

KronoRed
08-19-2011, 10:05 PM
2. And what happens in Door 3 when Votto bolts after 2013, as every indication seems to point to?

That's 2 1/2 years away, I find it hard to believe nobody else in the system will push for PT at 1b with their bat by then.

15fan
08-19-2011, 10:21 PM
Geez. All day long, and not a single one of you caught this. I'm so disappointed.


I beleive the writer is assuming that since Votto signed only a 3 year contract, his actions made it clear he intended to test UFA.

Which may or may not be true, but I doubt Votto has ever said so pubically.

:ughmamoru:

Cedric
08-19-2011, 10:32 PM
1. If Alonso had any trade value at all, he'd have been out the door this offseason or at the deadline. You don't spend time working a prospect out in LF and 3B if there are people willing to take him off your hands to give you those things.

2. And what happens in Door 3 when Votto bolts after 2013, as every indication seems to point to?

He had plenty of value, IMO. I think Jocketty and the Reds helped torpedo any value at this point though.

Another notch in the belt of this FO this year. A truly pathetic year from this front office.

Phhhl
08-20-2011, 12:12 AM
I have been kind of going back and forth. I am kind of hurt that Votto doesn't look at being a Cincinnati Red as the greatest thing that could ever happen to a baseball player, the way that I would. But, I also understand what he is saying.

I believe that it is a very good baseball team at it's core. One way to roll the dice and capitolize on it's assets would be to trade Votto this winter and try to somehow recouperate the talent he represents for a greater number of years than we are going to have him for. Another gamble would be try and pay the man what he is worth over the course of a long term contract, something that we all painfully found to be disagreeable to the concept of winning baseball in the case of Ken Griffey Jr. A third approach, and one whice I tend to believe in, is to accept that we have a window of two more years with one of the most devastating hitters in all of baseball under control. Don't mess with him, don't deal him, don't shift him around the field in order to get another player on the field.

The third approach is what the Brewers have done with Prince Fielder, who is most definately leaving Milwaukee after the 2011 season. They built around Prince in the face of all the logical things we are talking about right now with Votto, and look where they are today... running away with wtih this division and looking extremely strong going into the post season.

Leave Joey at first for the next two years, take the money we might have spent on extending him to put the pieces around him to build a championship ballclub and let's see what happens. This division is going to be very winnable for the next two seasons, I am absolutely certain, and one down year is not a reason to blow this team up... or even to set off a needless firecracker like this left field controversy. I am as tantalized by Alonso as anyone, but I also remember seeing how gawdawful he was EVEN as a first baseman in spring training last year and wonder if he can cut it at ANY postion whatsover. He is not worth straying off the road this club is on, with Votto leading the way.

Guacarock
08-20-2011, 01:21 AM
I beleive the writer is assuming that since Votto signed only a 3 year contract, his actions made it clear he intended to test UFA.

Which may or may not be true, but I doubt Votto has ever said so pubically.

Now, that's one of those typos guaranteed to make you groin. Substitute grin or groan, your choice.

Phhhl
08-20-2011, 01:50 AM
Joey is NOT going to sign here. How do you feel about that as a Reds' fan? I hate to say it, but that plays a large part in this. I look at any person born on earth who has had the honor of wearing the wishbone "C" as having earned extra credit as a human being, as far as I am concerned. That is how much I love the Reds. Joey obviously has a more grounded view of reality than myself.

Would you have asked Carl Yazstrimski to play first base to make room for Jim Rice? Would you have asked Pete Rose to play third base to make room for George Foster? Would you have asked Albert Pujols to play third base to make room for John Jay? I wouldn't have either. They volunteered.

It is unfair to ask Joey to take that remarkable next step, or else it wouldn't have been remarkable in the first place. I would rather play with the cards we are dealt than fantasize about what might have been.

mth123
08-20-2011, 02:45 AM
1. If Alonso had any trade value at all, he'd have been out the door this offseason or at the deadline. You don't spend time working a prospect out in LF and 3B if there are people willing to take him off your hands to give you those things.

2. And what happens in Door 3 when Votto bolts after 2013, as every indication seems to point to?

I don't worry about it. The team's best chance to win is with Votto as the centerpiece and pieces being added around him. Once he's gone the chances of winning (and by winning I mean winning the World Series - this sneaking into the play-offs without really having that caliber of talent by fattening up on sub .500 teams and taking a bad division by default isn't what I'm talking about) drop way down whether Alonso is still here or not.

After 2013, the Reds should have a ton of money available if Votto goes to get some type of replacement and I'm not sure that Soto or some other kids farther down (I think Juan Duran is a dark horse) won't end up being fine at 1B. I also don't think its a foregone conclusion that Votto will be gone. If the Reds want to keep him, making a move or two to actually try to win will be key. If they can pay him $17 Million in 2013, then they can afford his annual salary on a long term deal. If he leaves, it will be because the Reds are showing themselves to be a team that stays in that endless cycle that never makes a move to win and continually trades off today for a tomorrow that never comes. Say Alonso turns out to be an .850 or so OPS guy at 1B. Is that so hard to find with $17 Million in hand (it should be had for a lot less). Guys of the .975 to 1.000 caliber are the ones that are hard to find. Maybe Alonso will be that, but I wouldn't plan on it.

As for Alonso's trade value, I'm not sure I agree that he has no value. I wanted him dealt last winter as well, but he was coming off of a couple years where his numbers had been suppressed by his wrist injury and there were questions about whether he was major league ready. He probably has more value now since he seems ready to step into a major league line-up. but really, if his value is so low, what makes him such a must have that he can't be dealt just in case he's needed two years from now?

Ghosts of 1990
08-20-2011, 03:03 AM
What we should discuss is WHY he is so set on testing free agency? Is it more dollars? Does he want to play in another city geographically? Why is his mind seemingly made up?

mth123
08-20-2011, 03:06 AM
I still think an Alonso to Tampa makes sense. I'd deal him for Upton or Jennings (Upton being the most likely to be dealt). I want this team to compete now and dealing Alonso doesn't hurt the future of this team in any way, shape or form. I realize Upton is basically like having another more expensive though better version of Stubbs but that ain't the worse thing in the world. Besides perhaps a Stubbs+ (or Upton) package could then help procure Bautista. I still maintain can be had without giving up Votto.

I'm with the general idea. Keep Votto and deal Alonso to TB (or someplace looking for offense and has a spot at 1B). I'm not sure that upton would be my target though. I think a deal involving Alonso and some other kids for James Shields makes a lot of sense. The Rays have Moore and Cobb pushing for a spot on the cheap. They have Price and Hellickson for the top and Davis and Niemann to round it out. Shields is the one making relatively big bucks (but manageable for the Reds and something the Rays are always looking to move) and the Reds need an arm as much (or more IMO) as they need a bat.

Alonso, Grandal and Arredondo for Shields and J. P. Howell

Ron Madden
08-20-2011, 03:20 AM
Votto and the Reds has become an issue of deployment of resources an assets more than anything else.

Do I like Votto? Absolutely. Would I want him to OPS ~.950-1.000, hit 25-30 HR and drive in 100 runs in a Reds uniform for the next 10 years? Without a doubt.

But, the fact of the matter is that this team's best shot to reach the next level might require them trading a player like Votto to get back something they cannot develop -- a SS that hits, a big bat in LF, or a TOR starter -- and playing Alonso at 1st even knowing that his production won't be at Votto levels.

The issue isn't that teams like the Reds can't afford to hold onto Votto, the issue is that teams like the Reds can't afford to go out and sign to fill a ton of holes. That means when they have guys who can bring back returns in areas of dire team need, they have to consider moving those guys to build a full roster.


I said all of this in the second sentence of my post that you chose to quote just the first sentence.

Cedric
08-20-2011, 08:16 AM
What we should discuss is WHY he is so set on testing free agency? Is it more dollars? Does he want to play in another city geographically? Why is his mind seemingly made up?

Can you tell me what the plan was this offseason? Other than hoping for a miracle with about thirty players all improving. I'd want to play somewhere where I KNOW the FO is doing everything to win every year.

I don't blame Votto one bit for not wanting to endure a possible ten year run without a winning record much less a playoff berth.

RedsManRick
08-20-2011, 08:57 AM
What we should discuss is WHY he is so set on testing free agency? Is it more dollars? Does he want to play in another city geographically? Why is his mind seemingly made up?

I can think of about 125 million reasons why he'd pursue FA.

Mario-Rijo
08-20-2011, 09:13 AM
What we should discuss is WHY he is so set on testing free agency? Is it more dollars? Does he want to play in another city geographically? Why is his mind seemingly made up?

At one point he said that he owes it to the players who came before him and the ones who will come after him to basically get as much money as he can. I don't know that is his true motivation (could just be easier than stating a host of other less politically correct reasons) but the man doesn't mince words much so I take him at his word. It's a business deal to Votto IMO, nothing more.

Raisor
08-20-2011, 09:15 AM
What we should discuss is WHY he is so set on testing free agency? Is it more dollars? Does he want to play in another city geographically? Why is his mind seemingly made up?



who says it is? He just signed an extension that gives him the leverage in negotiating. That's the only thing that we know.

oneupper
08-20-2011, 09:47 AM
Votto took a slight risk by not agreeing to having a couple of his FA years bought out. Previously, the REDS had a chance to negotiate a long-term deal before he hit arbitration and didn't. So far Votto 2, REDS Zero.

Votto is betting that he is (and will continue to be) as good as he thinks he is, but the REDS have been skeptical. That bet looks good so far for him (unlike Mr. Volquez).

Instead of betting against Votto, I would bet WITH him. What's a FA like him going to make when he hits the market in 2013? Adrian Gonzalez money? (7/154), Jayson Werth money (7/126), Crawford (7/142/), Soriano (8/136)?.

Extend him NOW, like the Brewers did with Braun (who is signed through 2020). Offer something like a Werth contract extension (7/126, starting 2014).
If he doesn't want to stay, he'll decline (and then you know for sure).
If he accepts, you have your cornerstone for a decade. Yes, its a lot of money and yes he may be on the decline in the "out" years. And yes, it may leave you short of cash for other pieces.
But having a guy like Votto is a must for any team wanting to contend. Very few teams make it with a collection of no-names. Heck, even the Twins gave Mauer a huge contract.

Votto is special. Bet on him. Bet big.

Raisor
08-20-2011, 09:57 AM
If the Reds are serious about signing Votto long term they really need to offer him monthly Starbucks gift cards.

That would be the deal maker.

PuffyPig
08-20-2011, 09:58 AM
Votto took a slight risk by not agreeing to having a couple of his FA years bought out. Previously, the REDS had a chance to negotiate a long-term deal before he hit arbitration and didn't. So far Votto 2, REDS Zero.

Votto is betting that he is (and will continue to be) as good as he thinks he is, but the REDS have been skeptical. That bet looks good so far for him (unlike Mr. Volquez).

Instead of betting against Votto, I would bet WITH him. What's a FA like him going to make when he hits the market in 2013? Adrian Gonzalez money? (7/154), Jayson Werth money (7/126), Crawford (7/142/), Soriano (8/136)?.

Extend him NOW, like the Brewers did with Braun (who is signed through 2020). Offer something like a Werth contract extension (7/126, starting 2014).
If he doesn't want to stay, he'll decline (and then you know for sure).
If he accepts, you have your cornerstone for a decade. Yes, its a lot of money and yes he may be on the decline in the "out" years. And yes, it may leave you short of cash for other pieces.
But having a guy like Votto is a must for any team wanting to contend. Very few teams make it with a collection of no-names. Heck, even the Twins gave Mauer a huge contract.

Votto is special. Bet on him. Bet big.



I believe it is clear that the Reds wanted to sign him for more than 3 years, but Votto declined.

oneupper
08-20-2011, 10:05 AM
I believe it is clear that the Reds wanted to sign him for more than 3 years, but Votto declined.

It's not the same to offer four or five year deals, buying out 1 or 2 years of FA, than offering a 10 year deal (buying out 7) that is basically a FA deal.

I seriously doubt that the REDs offered anything like that. It would have been harder for Votto to turn down.

They settled on a compromise to avoid arbitration, buy time and see how things worked out. So far, Votto continues to raise his value.

kaldaniels
08-20-2011, 10:39 AM
Was 2010 Votto's peak? Just asking.

Cedric
08-20-2011, 11:16 AM
Was 2010 Votto's peak? Just asking.

Tough to say. Would you pitch to him this year? Put him in the middle of a Boston/New York lineup and he's probably right there with Agon as the best hitter in the world.

Roy Tucker
08-20-2011, 11:33 AM
Votto took a slight risk by not agreeing to having a couple of his FA years bought out. Previously, the REDS had a chance to negotiate a long-term deal before he hit arbitration and didn't. So far Votto 2, REDS Zero.

Votto is betting that he is (and will continue to be) as good as he thinks he is, but the REDS have been skeptical. That bet looks good so far for him (unlike Mr. Volquez).

Instead of betting against Votto, I would bet WITH him. What's a FA like him going to make when he hits the market in 2013? Adrian Gonzalez money? (7/154), Jayson Werth money (7/126), Crawford (7/142/), Soriano (8/136)?.

Extend him NOW, like the Brewers did with Braun (who is signed through 2020). Offer something like a Werth contract extension (7/126, starting 2014).
If he doesn't want to stay, he'll decline (and then you know for sure).
If he accepts, you have your cornerstone for a decade. Yes, its a lot of money and yes he may be on the decline in the "out" years. And yes, it may leave you short of cash for other pieces.
But having a guy like Votto is a must for any team wanting to contend. Very few teams make it with a collection of no-names. Heck, even the Twins gave Mauer a huge contract.

Votto is special. Bet on him. Bet big.

I would do this. I think Joey will be an excellent player for several years and is the kind of guy you would want as your franchise face. I really do think he's the kind of player Cincinnati likes.

If he takes the 7 yr. big buck contract, then you know it was just the money. If he doesn't, I'd say he isn't entirely happy here and that's a good thing to know too.

I don't think Votto declined this year. He just got pitched around. When he gets a pitch, he *hits* it. He has a very discerning eye at the plate and just a gorgeous consistent swing. Plus he works his tail off and plays a near-GG 1B. Put a couple guys around him to force pitchers to pitch to him and he's put up big time counting stats.

Cedric
08-20-2011, 11:41 AM
I would do this. I think Joey will be an excellent player for several years and is the kind of guy you would want as your franchise face. I really do think he's the kind of player Cincinnati likes.

If he takes the 7 yr. big buck contract, then you know it was just the money. If he doesn't, I'd say he isn't entirely happy here and that's a good thing to know too.

I don't think Votto declined this year. He just got pitched around. When he gets a pitch, he *hits* it. He has a very discerning eye at the plate and just a gorgeous consistent swing. Plus he works his tail off and plays a near-GG 1B. Put a couple guys around him to force pitchers to pitch to him and he's put up big time counting stats.

His at bat in the 10th last night was just beautiful. It's midnight after a long rain delay in a game in Pittsburgh with two below average teams. He grinded out an amazing at bat to walk and set up the winning run. He is truly a once in a generation talent.

lollipopcurve
08-20-2011, 12:06 PM
He is truly a once in a generation talent.

That's overstating it, IMO, but he's awful good and awful determined.

Off the field, it's likely the same. I doubt the Reds can "win" in any negotiation with Votto. He's going to get his (and I have no problem with that -- just wish it were different).

Cedric
08-20-2011, 01:58 PM
That's overstating it, IMO, but he's awful good and awful determined.

Off the field, it's likely the same. I doubt the Reds can "win" in any negotiation with Votto. He's going to get his (and I have no problem with that -- just wish it were different).

I should have clarified. All truly "great" players are determined. I just haven't seen a player in the past 15 years with his mix of drive/talent. I think in Boston or New York he would become the clear best player in the league for awhile. Just my opinion.

kaldaniels
08-20-2011, 07:17 PM
Tough to say. Would you pitch to him this year? Put him in the middle of a Boston/New York lineup and he's probably right there with Agon as the best hitter in the world.

I expect Votto to be a top 10 guy in baseball in terms of offensive production over the next 5 years, but I do wonder if we've seen the best of him. No slight on him intended at all.

kaldaniels
08-20-2011, 07:19 PM
I believe it is clear that the Reds wanted to sign him for more than 3 years, but Votto declined.

True, but I'd need specifics before making a judgement on that.

Brutus
08-20-2011, 08:35 PM
True, but I'd need specifics before making a judgement on that.

Agreed. Votto commented that it was simply a matter of not wanting to commit (anywhere) for very long at this point in his life.

While it's hard to say if he was being truthful or not, personally, I think people have confused not wanting to make a commitment with not wanting to make a commitment to Cincinnati.

wlf WV
08-20-2011, 09:20 PM
I expect Votto to be a top 10 guy in baseball in terms of offensive production over the next 5 years, but I do wonder if we've seen the best of him. No slight on him intended at all. What? and Why?

Guacarock
08-20-2011, 09:21 PM
The talk that the Reds are now planning to send Alonso to instructional league this winter to work out at 3B tells me:

1. That moving Votto to LF is a moot point. Won't happen or be entertained.
2. Votto also won't be dealt this off-season. He'll open 2012 as our starting 1B.
3. Reds likely won't be shipping off Alonso, either. He's probably going to be kept in the fold as Rolen and Votto's caddy in 2012 and Rolen or Votto's successor in 2013 or 2014, depending on how well Alonso adapts to 3B, whether Rolen can rebound from his gimpy shoulder and how things go as Joey approaches free agency.

wlf WV
08-20-2011, 09:23 PM
The talk that the Reds are now planning to send Alonso to instructional league this winter to work out at 3B tells me:

1. That moving Votto to LF is a moot point. Won't happen or be entertained.
2. Votto also won't be dealt this off-season. He'll open 2012 as our starting 1B.
3. Reds likely won't be shipping off Alonso, either. He's probably going to be kept in the fold as Rolen and Votto's caddy in 2012 and Rolen or Votto's successor in 2013 or 2014, depending on how well Alonso adapts to 3B and how things go as Joey approaches free agency.At least they now have a plan,and are hedging their bets.

Guacarock
08-20-2011, 09:38 PM
In addition, if Alonso fares acceptably at 3B in his wintertime crash-course, then Juan Francisco better get his bags packed. We still have some glaring needs (LF, TOR starter, bullpen), and this winter, I don't see Jocketty standing pat after the Reds slogged through 2011. Some of our excess and fringe players will be traded to bring back pieces we are missing.

kaldaniels
08-20-2011, 09:42 PM
What? and Why?

It's not that shocking of a question. Most players peak at (near if we are parsing words) this age.

IslandRed
08-20-2011, 09:45 PM
The talk that the Reds are now planning to send Alonso to instructional league this winter to work out at 3B tells me:

1. That moving Votto to LF is a moot point. Won't happen or be entertained.
2. Votto also won't be dealt this off-season. He'll open 2012 as our starting 1B.
3. Reds likely won't be shipping off Alonso, either. He's probably going to be kept in the fold as Rolen and Votto's caddy in 2012 and Rolen or Votto's successor in 2013 or 2014, depending on how well Alonso adapts to 3B, whether Rolen can rebound from his gimpy shoulder and how things go as Joey approaches free agency.

Or, at the very least, they want to make sure they've exhausted every reasonable opportunity to get his bat into the lineup before they do trade him.

wlf WV
08-20-2011, 10:04 PM
I agree with Upper and Cedric.Votto is special and somebody will acknowledge that,I hope it's Castellini.I wouldn't trade Votto for any other hitter in MLB.I would like to know if a reasonable extension(fair market value )was even discussed.My guess is the contract he now has wasn't Jocketty's 1st or 2nd offer.Wouldn't he really be something to watch on PEDS or Bautista juice.:D Just kidding.

wlf WV
08-20-2011, 10:15 PM
double post

wlf WV
08-20-2011, 10:19 PM
It's not that shocking of a question. Most players peak at (near if we are parsing words) this age.
I missed your previous post and misunderstood your statement.Sorry.

kaldaniels
08-20-2011, 10:39 PM
I missed your previous post and misunderstood your statement.Sorry.

No problem.

Vottomatic
12-27-2011, 07:29 PM
It seems like most of the big spending teams are set at 1B for awhile. Unless Joey is set on going back to Toronto, I'm surprised he wouldn't consider signing an extension.

Fielder isn't exactly getting a ton of offers, and he's younger than Joey. Teams are becoming reluctant to do 8 or 10 year contracts. I know Prince will get a great offer, but I bet it's not as good as he thought it would be. It seems like some teams are starting to come to their senses. Some, not all. Nationals are still idiots.

paulrichjr
12-27-2011, 07:32 PM
It seems like most of the big spending teams are set at 1B for awhile. Unless Joey is set on going back to Toronto, I'm surprised he wouldn't consider signing an extension.

Fielder isn't exactly getting a ton of offers, and he's younger than Joey. Teams are becoming reluctant to do 8 or 10 year contracts. I know Prince will get a great offer, but I bet it's not as good as he thought it would be. It seems like some teams are starting to come to their senses. Some, not all. Nationals are still idiots.

Add Angels to the idiot list and almost the Marlins

mth123
12-27-2011, 07:34 PM
It seems like most of the big spending teams are set at 1B for awhile. Unless Joey is set on going back to Toronto, I'm surprised he wouldn't consider signing an extension.

Fielder isn't exactly getting a ton of offers, and he's younger than Joey. Teams are becoming reluctant to do 8 or 10 year contracts. I know Prince will get a great offer, but I bet it's not as good as he thought it would be. It seems like some teams are starting to come to their senses. Some, not all. Nationals are still idiots.

IMO, the template for Votto isn't Pujols. Its the 8 year $160 Million deal that Matt Kemp just signed. I think the Reds could swing that. They are going to be paying $19 Million in 2013 counting his deferred signing bonus. They should be giving up some of the 2012 payflex to bump his 2012 number in exchange for adding some years at $20 Million per IMO.

Kc61
12-27-2011, 07:51 PM
IMO, the template for Votto isn't Pujols. Its the 8 year $160 Million deal that Matt Kemp just signed. I think the Reds could swing that. They are going to be paying $19 Million in 2013 counting his deferred signing bonus. They should be giving up some of the 2012 payflex to bump his 2012 number in exchange for adding some years at $20 Million per IMO.

The Reds will never out bid the competition.
And the Reds will not become the glamour team to woo Votto.

The best thing the Reds can do now is win. Be responsible in spending, yes, but mostly, win.

The Reds can attract Joey with some money, some years, a no-trade clause, and a winning team.

Joey may want to remain part of a winning team he helped build. If the Reds are a middling ball club, they don't have much to offer him.

kaldaniels
12-27-2011, 08:03 PM
Anyone want to fill in the blanks?

Joey Votto:

2012 WAR ___
2013 WAR ___
2014 WAR ___
2015 WAR ___
2016 WAR ___
2017 WAR ___
2018 WAR ___
2019 WAR ___

Now WAR isn't the be all end all stat, but more than anything I'm wondering how some in here think his production will trend.

MikeS21
12-27-2011, 08:20 PM
I'm all for fair market value offers. If 8 years $160 is the fair market for Votto, then that is what the Reds need to offer. But if they are going to have to overpay (say more than 8 years $170 million) in order to get him to sign, then the Reds need to politely pass.

I don't think he'll sign. Even if the Reds won the next two World Series, I don't think Votto sign. He has given no indication that he will even consider it. Most players in his position know they are going to be asked about his contract status. You would expect him to say something like, "We're focused on the here and now. But I'm sure when the time comes, we'll hammer out a deal that will make everybody happy. I'll be here for a long time." It would at least stop a few of the questions and stave off some of the garbage that is going to be piled on him the closer we get to 2013.

But he has been suspiciously quiet and has been careful not to convey any notion that he intends to stay. He strikes me as already having made up his mind to leave, but he doesn't want to say anything because he knows the focus the next two years would be completely on him leaving.

And if his silence is some sort of posturing, then that's a sure sign the Reds aren't going to be able to afford him anyway.

kaldaniels
12-27-2011, 08:23 PM
I'm all for fair market value offers. If 8 years $160 is the fair market for Votto, then that is what the Reds need to offer. But if they are going to have to overpay (say more than 8 years $170 million) in order to get him to sign, then the Reds need to politely pass.

I don't think he'll sign. Even if the Reds won the next two World Series, I don't think Votto sign. He has given no indication that he will even consider it. Most players in his position know they are going to be asked about his contract status. You would expect him to say something like, "We're focused on the here and now. But I'm sure when the time comes, we'll hammer out a deal that will make everybody happy. I'll be here for a long time." It would at least stop a few of the questions and stave off some of the garbage that is going to be piled on him the closer we get to 2013.

But he has been suspiciously quiet and has been careful not to convey any notion that he intends to stay. He strikes me as already having made up his mind to leave, but he doesn't want to say anything because he knows the focus the next two years would be completely on him leaving.

And if his silence is some sort of posturing, then that's a sure sign the Reds aren't going to be able to afford him anyway.

But if he hasn't made up his mind, he can't say "we'll hammer out a deal". Those words would haunt him.

corkedbat
12-27-2011, 08:28 PM
Fielder IS a bad comparable for Joey because Joey isn't a porkchop shy of eating himself out of the league. I don't know all that much about WAR, but Joey keeps himself in shape and works hard at his craft. You can never predict an injury, but I would think that JV projects as a very solid hitter up to 40 and maybe a year or two beyond. Fielder? Just look at Dunn and then think twice as bad.

The old thread linked is just one of several where FV has implied or made it clear that he will test the market in2013. He will make 2017 his last yearand the is probably near the Reds payroll threshold for a singe season and on player. I'd say Joey will want no less than $20M for 8-10 years with at least a $2-3M bump each season.

I just don't see how the Reds are going to be able to offer that in just two years from now unless the Salary Fairy loses her luggage and it lands on Bob Castellini.

My gues is go all in to win in 2012 and if that doesn't work, deal Joey to fill some holes and build around others.

Always Red
12-27-2011, 08:44 PM
Fielder IS a bad comparable for Joey because Joey isn't a porkchop shy of eating himself out of the league. I don't know all that much about WAR, but Joey keeps himself in shape and works hard at his craft. You can never predict an injury, but I would think that JV projects as a very solid hitter up to 40 and maybe a year or two beyond. Fielder? Just look at Dunn and then think twice as bad.

Just look at Prince's own father; it's part of his genetic potential.

Teams know that; they'll go big for 3 years, as I read today (3yrs/26mill each year), but no way will they go 10 for Prince.

Votto is a different cat. 2 more monster years like the last 3 he's had and he can write his own ticket. Hope the Reds can keep him here in Cincy.

[/QUOTE]

MikeS21
12-27-2011, 09:23 PM
But if he hasn't made up his mind, he can't say "we'll hammer out a deal". Those words would haunt him.
Then he does what just about every other free agent does - blame negotiations breaking down on the organization and then walk. When you want to leave, its not hard to find something you don't like - even if its the color of the carpet in the clubhouse or the fact that the home dugout is on the 3B line as opposed to the 1B line.

While I certainly feel Votto is an exceptional, well deserving player, I think the Reds FO has bent over backwards to accommodate Votto. I feel they have treated him fair thus far. I really don't see how his current contract benefited the club - not to the extent that Bruce and Cueto had a year or two of their FA bought out in their contracts. The team really gave a concession to him on that.

I really hope he signs an extension and retires as a Red. But realistically, I'm not at all hopeful. And its too bad because the fans are going to blame the Reds FO for "being too cheap," "not fielding a winner," etc. It'll be a PR nightmare, and it really won't have anything to do with the FO at all.

kaldaniels
12-27-2011, 11:31 PM
Then he does what just about every other free agent does - blame negotiations breaking down on the organization and then walk. When you want to leave, its not hard to find something you don't like - even if its the color of the carpet in the clubhouse or the fact that the home dugout is on the 3B line as opposed to the 1B line.

While I certainly feel Votto is an exceptional, well deserving player, I think the Reds FO has bent over backwards to accommodate Votto. I feel they have treated him fair thus far. I really don't see how his current contract benefited the club - not to the extent that Bruce and Cueto had a year or two of their FA bought out in their contracts. The team really gave a concession to him on that.

I really hope he signs an extension and retires as a Red. But realistically, I'm not at all hopeful. And its too bad because the fans are going to blame the Reds FO for "being too cheap," "not fielding a winner," etc. It'll be a PR nightmare, and it really won't have anything to do with the FO at all.

I'm just confused cause you seem to be knocking Votto, and I don't know why.

There may never be a better spot for this line..."Don't hate the player, hate the game".

RedlegJake
12-27-2011, 11:52 PM
I'm just confused cause you seem to be knocking Votto, and I don't know why.

There may never be a better spot for this line..."Don't hate the player, hate the game".

I really took it differently - I kind of got that he was hating the game and not the player. It's just the way the game is.

Ron Madden
12-27-2011, 11:54 PM
I really took it differently - I kind of got that he was hating the game and not the player. It's just the way the game is.

Ditto.

MattyHo4Life
12-28-2011, 12:00 AM
It seems like most of the big spending teams are set at 1B for awhile. Unless Joey is set on going back to Toronto, I'm surprised he wouldn't consider signing an extension.

Fielder isn't exactly getting a ton of offers, and he's younger than Joey. Teams are becoming reluctant to do 8 or 10 year contracts. I know Prince will get a great offer, but I bet it's not as good as he thought it would be. It seems like some teams are starting to come to their senses. Some, not all. Nationals are still idiots.

It's true that most of the big spending teams are set at 1B for awhile. Although, as we learned with Pujols, it only takes one big spending team to make a difference. The Marlins, Blue Jays, Cubs, and Cardinals are just a few teams that could be players for Votto when he becomes a FA.I'm not surprised that he hasn't signed an extension. He would be a more attractive FA than Fielder.

kaldaniels
12-28-2011, 12:13 AM
I really took it differently - I kind of got that he was hating the game and not the player. It's just the way the game is.

Mike can explain I suppose. But I would pose this question then....if Votto doesn't know what he wants to do, what should he say?

wlf WV
12-28-2011, 03:38 AM
Mike can explain I suppose. But I would pose this question then....if Votto doesn't know what he wants to do, what should he say?

I believe Votto is as honest in his answers as he is able.I don't take his word lightly.

Vottomatic
12-28-2011, 07:54 AM
I believe Joey is too honest at times and sometimes sticks his foot in his mouth, saying things that can be taken alot of different ways.

For the person who commented that Fielder is just a porkchop away from looking like his father, I'm pretty sure I heard on a broadcast this year that Prince is either a vegatarian or vegan. He watches his weight closely.

The problem for Joey is if he signs with Cincinnati, will they have the money to maintain a quality pitching staff and will they have the money to put a solid lineup around him? It may not be the money they're willing to pay him, but how little money they will have to give him a supporting cast and pitching staff to compete.

Then again, maybe if the Reds are winning because of Latos and an improving Cueto and Bailey, and the young position players coming around, maybe Joey signs a short term contract, like 2 or 3 years at $20M per year? If the team wins a world series and continues making the playoffs each year, that's the only way I see Joey staying, simply to stick with what he knows and the fact they would be winning.

RedLegsToday
12-28-2011, 09:25 AM
I'll play:

28 2012 WAR _6
29 2013 WAR _5.5
30 2014 WAR _5
31 2015 WAR _5.5
32 2016 WAR _4.5
33 2017 WAR _4.5
34 2018 WAR _3
35 2019 WAR _3

kaldaniels
12-28-2011, 09:35 AM
I'll play:

28 2012 WAR _6
29 2013 WAR _5.5
30 2014 WAR _5
31 2015 WAR _5.5
32 2016 WAR _4.5
33 2017 WAR _4.5
34 2018 WAR _3
35 2019 WAR _3

Absolutely within reason.

Edd Roush
12-28-2011, 10:07 AM
I'll play:

28 2012 WAR _6
29 2013 WAR _5.5
30 2014 WAR _5
31 2015 WAR _5.5
32 2016 WAR _4.5
33 2017 WAR _4.5
34 2018 WAR _3
35 2019 WAR _3

So if 1 WAR is worth 5 million dollars we are talking $185 million over 8 years or slightly more than 23 mil a year. If we can get Votto around $20 mil a year, you gotta re-sign him. Votto is elite talent. While this isn't basketball where one elite player makes an average team to an elite team (Cavs with LeBron) or football where Peyton Manning takes the Colts from average team to good team, I still think having that elite bat in your line-up changes the complexion of games.

Votto is a superstar, if we can get the WAR from him for a little less than market rate, I think we gotta keep him.

dougdirt
12-28-2011, 10:17 AM
So if 1 WAR is worth 5 million dollars we are talking $185 million over 8 years or slightly more than 23 mil a year. If we can get Votto around $20 mil a year, you gotta re-sign him. Votto is elite talent. While this isn't basketball where one elite player makes an average team to an elite team (Cavs with LeBron) or football where Peyton Manning takes the Colts from average team to good team, I still think having that elite bat in your line-up changes the complexion of games.

Votto is a superstar, if we can get the WAR from him for a little less than market rate, I think we gotta keep him.

I do have to wonder if a small/mid market team can afford to pay market value for superstars, even if they are "worth it" in terms of what a win is going for on the open market.

camisadelgolf
12-28-2011, 10:26 AM
I'll play:

28 2012 WAR _6
29 2013 WAR _5.5
30 2014 WAR _5
31 2015 WAR _5.5
32 2016 WAR _4.5
33 2017 WAR _4.5
34 2018 WAR _3
35 2019 WAR _3
Market value for those kind of numbers is $20M+/year. Would you feel comfortable giving him a contract of 8 years/$165M? Since he's signed for the next two years at a 'bargain', it would effectively be like paying him $23M/year when you keep in mind the money he's already guaranteed.

Caveat Emperor
12-28-2011, 10:36 AM
I do have to wonder if a small/mid market team can afford to pay market value for superstars, even if they are "worth it" in terms of what a win is going for on the open market.

There's a "worth it" scale that slides based on overall payroll.

Votto at $20m+ per on a $80-$85m payroll? Not worth it.
Votto at $20m+ per on a $90-$100m payroll? Maybe worth it.
Votto at $20m+ per on a $100m+ payroll? Absolutely worth it.

kaldaniels
12-28-2011, 10:41 AM
There is a difference between the price for open market WAR and the price for homegrown pre FA WAR.

REDREAD
12-28-2011, 10:48 AM
Honestly, I think Votto could go either way.
He just doesn't want to sign an extension now.. I don't know why people are assuming he is going to leave.
It seems like a wise strategy for him to wait until he is a FA to negotiate.
He won an MVP, had a solid season last year.. The odds of him getting injuried are pretty low. The last extension has given him enough guaranteed money to last for life.

If I am Votto, I wait until I'm a FA to negotiate too.. Votto might win another MVP. Chances are his price is only going to go up. Also, by waiting, Votto can see what state the club is in 2 years.. I bet Jr wishes he didn't sign that long, team friendly deal with the Reds when Carl was here.. Likewise, Arroyo got burned by signing that extension with Boston -- what did Boston do in return? They used his below market contract to trade him.. Stories like this happen all the time. I really don't blame the players for not giving up their leverage. If any of us could get a 40% raise by going to a competing company and doing the same job, we'd bolt our current jobs in a second.

smith288
12-28-2011, 10:50 AM
Just look at Prince's own father; it's part of his genetic potential.

Teams know that; they'll go big for 3 years, as I read today (3yrs/26mill each year), but no way will they go 10 for Prince.

Votto is a different cat. 2 more monster years like the last 3 he's had and he can write his own ticket. Hope the Reds can keep him here in Cincy.


Fielder's a vegetarian. But I get ya.

kheidg-
12-28-2011, 10:52 AM
I bet Jr wishes he didn't sign that long, team friendly deal with the Reds when Carl was here..

Agree with your entire post except for this glaring quote above.

There is no way Junior would have gotten near the money he did on the open market. He was continuosly injured and he should have been thanking his lucky stars that he signed the long term deal.

REDREAD
12-28-2011, 11:02 AM
Agree with your entire post except for this glaring quote above.

There is no way Junior would have gotten near the money he did on the open market. He was continuosly injured and he should have been thanking his lucky stars that he signed the long term deal.

This is a reasonable thing to dispute.

In terms of dollars, Jr may have come out ahead coming to Cincy (all depends on the timing, as you said.. an injured Jr would not get a big contract).

Jr sure seemed unhappy here. And the medical care he got here was atrocious (Being cleared to pinch hit when he clearly was not ready).

HokieRed
12-28-2011, 11:29 AM
Back to Votto. I expect him to do what any other rational self-interested human being would do: wait till his FA and then sign the best long term deal for himself, probably somewhere else. No problem with this whatsoever.
What Walt has done is to change the window. We've had the two year Votto window. Now we have the 4 year Latos-Chapman window. I think we've not paid enough attention to the apparent new firmness in commitment to Chapman's becoming a starter. If that's successful and Latos pitches as well as there's every reason to expect he will, the identity of our first baseman is going to mean a lot less to the club's success after 2013 than it has more recently. So I think we take our shot two years with Joey, offer him a deal the team can afford, then, if he chooses, let him walk, plug in Neftali Soto and go right on. A 2014 rotation of Latos, Chapman, Cueto, Bailey, and Leake--backed by a solid pen--will be competitive with Soto at first, provided we can get league average offense out of LF and find somebody who can at least catch it at 3b.

Vottomatic
12-28-2011, 12:00 PM
My hope is that the farm system continues to develop major league players and we just restock the major league roster if these current guys want to go elsewhere in free agency. Rays do it all the time.

RedLegsToday
12-28-2011, 12:28 PM
So if 1 WAR is worth 5 million dollars we are talking $185 million over 8 years or slightly more than 23 mil a year. If we can get Votto around $20 mil a year, you gotta re-sign him. Votto is elite talent. While this isn't basketball where one elite player makes an average team to an elite team (Cavs with LeBron) or football where Peyton Manning takes the Colts from average team to good team, I still think having that elite bat in your line-up changes the complexion of games.

Votto is a superstar, if we can get the WAR from him for a little less than market rate, I think we gotta keep him.


The problem with those figures though is that we already have him signed for the first 2 years of the deal. So, we're looking at a 6 year deal for the rest of that production. Joey will hit the free agent market before his age 30 season, will he only sign a 6 year deal? I'm betting that a team will give him more years than that, and the end of an 8-10 year deal at $20 million a year may be ugly.

RedsManRick
12-28-2011, 12:37 PM
So if 1 WAR is worth 5 million dollars we are talking $185 million over 8 years or slightly more than 23 mil a year. If we can get Votto around $20 mil a year, you gotta re-sign him. Votto is elite talent. While this isn't basketball where one elite player makes an average team to an elite team (Cavs with LeBron) or football where Peyton Manning takes the Colts from average team to good team, I still think having that elite bat in your line-up changes the complexion of games.

Votto is a superstar, if we can get the WAR from him for a little less than market rate, I think we gotta keep him.


The problem with those figures though is that we already have him signed for the first 2 years of the deal. So, we're looking at a 6 year deal for the rest of that production. Joey will hit the free agent market before his age 30 season, will he only sign a 6 year deal? I'm betting that a team will give him more years than that, and the end of an 8-10 year deal at $20 million a year may be ugly.

I don't think Kemp (age, position) nor Fielder (age, body) are the benchmarks -- Adrian Gonzalez is. They're basically the same player. Entering his age 29 season, the Red Sox inked him to 7/154.

Assuming Votto maintains this peak, he'll probably get something in the 6/135 range.

Though I think we'll see a similar situation playing out as is playing out for Fielder now. Teams can only write so many $20MM checks and the ones most capable of doing so may not have room -- or at least sufficient competition in the bidding to justify it. I don't think enough teams will be in play to drive the price up.

lollipopcurve
12-28-2011, 12:52 PM
Assuming Votto maintains this peak, he'll probably get something in the 6/135 range.

Though I think we'll see a similar situation playing out as is playing out for Fielder now. Teams can only write so many $20MM checks and the ones most capable of doing so may not have room -- or at least sufficient competition in the bidding to justify it. I don't think enough teams will be in play to drive the price up.

For starters, Cubs, Brewers, Nats, Dodgers, Marlins, and of course the Blue Jays. All could have a need and the $$$ (2 years from now) to drive prices very high.

mth123
12-28-2011, 12:54 PM
Back to Votto. I expect him to do what any other rational self-interested human being would do: wait till his FA and then sign the best long term deal for himself, probably somewhere else. No problem with this whatsoever.
What Walt has done is to change the window. We've had the two year Votto window. Now we have the 4 year Latos-Chapman window. I think we've not paid enough attention to the apparent new firmness in commitment to Chapman's becoming a starter. If that's successful and Latos pitches as well as there's every reason to expect he will, the identity of our first baseman is going to mean a lot less to the club's success after 2013 than it has more recently. So I think we take our shot two years with Joey, offer him a deal the team can afford, then, if he chooses, let him walk, plug in Neftali Soto and go right on. A 2014 rotation of Latos, Chapman, Cueto, Bailey, and Leake--backed by a solid pen--will be competitive with Soto at first, provided we can get league average offense out of LF and find somebody who can at least catch it at 3b.

Exactly and if Soto flops and reveals himself incapable at 1B and in the middle of the order, Votto's $19 Million coming off the books should be enough to get one from the never ending supply of Carlos Pena's, Aubrey Huff's, Adam Laroche's and other mid-800s OPS guys who are available every year.

traderumor
12-28-2011, 01:24 PM
It would seem the Latos trade should also serve as a guide in all the hand-wringing over "will he/won't he" with Votto. Opinions of players change fast in this game. Latos would have been untouchable just one offseason ago, now he's on our roster.

The more time passes, the more clearer things become, he's signed for two more years, all the debating in the world is not going to force negotiations for a long-term contract.

Of course, if a contract extension did occur, it would simply trigger a discussion on "what an albatross" and probably revisit the odds of Votto having a relapse on the anxiety attacks.

Be careful what you ask for.

RedsManRick
12-28-2011, 01:54 PM
For starters, Cubs, Brewers, Nats, Dodgers, Marlins, and of course the Blue Jays. All could have a need and the $$$ (2 years from now) to drive prices very high.

We'll see how many of those positions are still open in 2 years.

lollipopcurve
12-28-2011, 02:10 PM
We'll see how many of those positions are still open in 2 years.

Judging by the excess 1B talent on the market now, teams will have plenty of options to go year to year with these guys. And even if most of these teams ink guys to multiyear deals taking them into 2014, all it takes is 2 teams that have planned for Votto's availability to start a bidding war. Toronto is all but a lock to be one of them.

corkedbat
12-28-2011, 02:16 PM
Exactly and if Soto flops and reveals himself incapable at 1B and in the middle of the order, Votto's $19 Million coming off the books should be enough to get one from the never ending supply of Carlos Pena's, Aubrey Huff's, Adam Laroche's and other mid-800s OPS guys who are available every year.

There seems to be a large class of fairly high-ceiling 1B either already coming into the league or close to it.

MikeS21
12-28-2011, 02:32 PM
To clarify my earlier post, I am definitely knocking the game - not the player.

Let me be perfectly clear. If you read many of my posts in this thread and others about Joey Votto, I want it made clear that my preference is that he extend and stay a Red until the day he retires. That is my hope.

Having said that, I don't think the Reds in their current small/mid size market (and I know market size is a touchy subject, but it is what it is) can afford to pay ANY player, whether it be Joey Votto, Mat Latos, Jay Bruce, or any or FA or "superstar," more than $20. We already saw what happened when the Reds tied up such a huge chunk - a significant percentage of the payroll - on Junior. There was no money left to bring in support players, and so Junior was stuck playing with the Jimmy Haynes and the Ryan Freels and the Juan Castros of baseball.

Think back to 2002 when Junior and Larkin both got injured. Who filled in? Juan Castro and Juan Encarnacion. The problem in 2002 was that the Reds were so hampered by Junior's salary that when he got hurt, there was no money left to bring in a replacement who was decent enough to start. I know Juan Encarnacion was a highly prized prospect but he was average as a major league player, and certain could not carry a team the way Junior could.

Go back to the BRM. Go back to 1975 and 1976. It was not the starting eight position players who got the team into the series. It was guys like Bill Plummer, Darrell Chaney, Doug Flynn, and Dan Dreissan. The bench was loaded. And when one of the regular Great Eight sat out a game, or missed a week with a sore knee, the replacement guy stepped in and the BRM didn't miss a beat. That's how the team won.

Here's the thing: Winning the World Series will NEVER be about Joey Votto or Mat Latos or Sean Marshall. Winning the series will be about depth - especially in those games Joey Votto sits out due to injury or days off. As I look at this team right now. There is depth here that has not been here since the days of the BRM. Right now, it's Chris Heisey, Ryan Hannigan, Miguel Cairo, and Todd Frazier that will ultimately carry this team.

Can the Reds afford to pay Joey Votto $20-$21 million from 2014-2022? Possibly, until Latos, Bruce, Cueto, Marshall and others get their payday. And Bruce and Cueto will already be making $10 million each in 2014.

Here's the question: if the Reds averaged home attendance of 3 million fans, what level of payroll could the team support, given added expenses of that many fans? Is it a $90 million payroll? $100 million? $105 million? I am not talking about media contracts or the like - just a fan attendance increase at GAB. What would it support?

lollipopcurve
12-28-2011, 02:46 PM
Go back to the BRM. Go back to 1975 and 1976. It was not the starting eight position players who got the team into the series. It was guys like Bill Plummer, Darrell Chaney, Doug Flynn, and Dan Dreissan. The bench was loaded. And when one of the regular Great Eight sat out a game, or missed a week with a sore knee, the replacement guy stepped in and the BRM didn't miss a beat. That's how the team won.

While I agree with what you're saying about Votto and the current team, I think you're way, way off base when assessing the power of that BRM squad.

corkedbat
12-28-2011, 03:28 PM
To clarify my earlier post, I am definitely knocking the game - not the player.

Let me be perfectly clear. If you read many of my posts in this thread and others about Joey Votto, I want it made clear that my preference is that he extend and stay a Red until the day he retires. That is my hope.

Having said that, I don't think the Reds in their current small/mid size market (and I know market size is a touchy subject, but it is what it is) can afford to pay ANY player, whether it be Joey Votto, Mat Latos, Jay Bruce, or any or FA or "superstar," more than $20. We already saw what happened when the Reds tied up such a huge chunk - a significant percentage of the payroll - on Junior. There was no money left to bring in support players, and so Junior was stuck playing with the Jimmy Haynes and the Ryan Freels and the Juan Castros of baseball.

Think back to 2002 when Junior and Larkin both got injured. Who filled in? Juan Castro and Juan Encarnacion. The problem in 2002 was that the Reds were so hampered by Junior's salary that when he got hurt, there was no money left to bring in a replacement who was decent enough to start. I know Juan Encarnacion was a highly prized prospect but he was average as a major league player, and certain could not carry a team the way Junior could.

Go back to the BRM. Go back to 1975 and 1976. It was not the starting eight position players who got the team into the series. It was guys like Bill Plummer, Darrell Chaney, Doug Flynn, and Dan Dreissan. The bench was loaded. And when one of the regular Great Eight sat out a game, or missed a week with a sore knee, the replacement guy stepped in and the BRM didn't miss a beat. That's how the team won.

Here's the thing: Winning the World Series will NEVER be about Joey Votto or Mat Latos or Sean Marshall. Winning the series will be about depth - especially in those games Joey Votto sits out due to injury or days off. As I look at this team right now. There is depth here that has not been here since the days of the BRM. Right now, it's Chris Heisey, Ryan Hannigan, Miguel Cairo, and Todd Frazier that will ultimately carry this team.

Can the Reds afford to pay Joey Votto $20-$21 million from 2014-2022? Possibly, until Latos, Bruce, Cueto, Marshall and others get their payday. And Bruce and Cueto will already be making $10 million each in 2014.

Here's the question: if the Reds averaged home attendance of 3 million fans, what level of payroll could the team support, given added expenses of that many fans? Is it a $90 million payroll? $100 million? $105 million? I am not talking about media contracts or the like - just a fan attendance increase at GAB. What would it support?

If the Reds could pump attendance up to 3M per season for two or three years and a level of about 2.7-3M fans were sustainable, I think the Reds could easily affor a payroll of $100M - quite possibly as high as $110M,

Topping 2.5M fans (much less 3M) would be a monumental feat. This franchise has not had a top 10 finish (in terms of NL total attendance).

One thing you have to consider, the Reds record for total attendance is 2.6M, set 9in 1976 when the BRN was at the height of its popularity. Not only was the City of Cincinnati in the midst of an amzing Reds baseball frenzy, so were the states of Ohio, Indiana Kentucky and even West Virginia. That was a special time that probably won't be replicated again. For one thing, the stewardship of people like Dick Wagner, John Allen, Marge Schott and Carl Lindner has shrivelled the fanbase considerably.

Something else to consider. The BRM played its games in Riverfront Stadium which had a capacity for baseball of almost 53K. GAB's capacity is just over 42K. There were a lot of sellouts (or near sellouts) for prime games. I remember 3 game series against the Braves and Dodgers that drew 150K - something that the GAB is not capable of duplicating.

If you can't have a 50K+ sellout for prime games then you need to average more for the not-so-prime games. There is only so many fans you can draw for certain dates. After opening day, the early -season games are only going to draw a certain number of fans due to children still being in school. Midweek games in genreal are probably going to be limited in what they draw too. Again, looking at the BRN's 1976 record "only" had an average or 32K per game. So for every date that drew 45-50K there were several dates sub-20K. It tough to make up the extra 10.5K or so boost that a riverfront sellout gave to those attendance figures.

The other facor is TV. These days, practically every single game is on TV. Back then there were a lot fewer games avaialbel and most that were shown were away games. This, combined with the huge appettite for Reds baseball brought a lot more fans out to the park since the couldn't (in some cases) see entire homestands at a time on TV. Don't discount the impact this had.

This years figure of a little over 2.2M wasn't bad (best since the 2.3 in 2004 - the GAB's debut year). If this team can comeo out on fire during the deadtimes of April and early May, they have a chance to draw 2-3-2.5M. If they really catch fire for a period of two or three eyars then they might draw 2.5-2.6M and threaten the record.

You have to remember, the total possible attendance for a GAB year is less than 3.5 M. To draw 3M you would have to draw over 37K per game - every game. That basically would be like filling all but the very worst nosebleed seats every night.

I thinik 2.5M would be a better-than-solid showing for the Reds. 2.6-2.7M would be astounding. 3M would take an unbelievable and probably require a 100+W season (along with the alignment of more than just a couple of celestial bodies).

RedEye
12-28-2011, 03:30 PM
Go back to the BRM. Go back to 1975 and 1976. It was not the starting eight position players who got the team into the series. It was guys like Bill Plummer, Darrell Chaney, Doug Flynn, and Dan Dreissan. The bench was loaded. And when one of the regular Great Eight sat out a game, or missed a week with a sore knee, the replacement guy stepped in and the BRM didn't miss a beat. That's how the team won.


The BRM did have good reserves, but I think you are grossly overstating their effect. The team won because it had arguably the best starting lineup ever. Not sure that any team these days could afford to put together a lineup like that -- maybe not even the Yankees.

corkedbat
12-28-2011, 03:39 PM
nm

corkedbat
12-28-2011, 03:43 PM
The BRM did have good reserves, but I think you are grossly overstating their effect. The team won because it had arguably the best starting lineup ever. Not sure that any team these days could afford to put together a lineup like that -- maybe not even the Yankees.

Where the BRM was underestimated was both the rotation and the pen. Each year, they had two or three guys in the pen that had both the stuff and the mentality to be considered closers tody. The staff was very under-rated also. Mainly, I think because fans back then looked at guys liek Seaver, Carlton, some of the Doger adn Oriole arms and felt our rotation paled by comparison. Jack Billingham was especially maligned by some, but I'd take his bulldog ways in this rotation right now.

The Reds did have some solid bench guys. Bob Bailey and Mike Lum gave them a solid R/L PH combo.

Mainspark
12-28-2011, 04:38 PM
Trust me, it was the BRM's starting lineup, not its bench, that won those championships. The reserves were good enough for the team to continue winning when one or two of the regulars took a breather or were injured, but look at the bench's stats those years.
Plummer hit .182 in '75, the same year that Chaney hit .219, and Rettenmund hit .239. Lum hit. 228 in '76.
Stats in what was at times extremely limited play can be deceiving, but there were really only two players on that bench, Driessen and Flynn, who likely would have started on a number of other teams.
The others were guys on their way down (Bailey, Rettenmund, Lum) or for the most part career second-stringers (Plummer, Chaney, Armbrister, etc.)

Always Red
12-28-2011, 04:59 PM
Topping 2.5M fans (much less 3M) would be a monumental feat. This franchise has not had a top 10 finish (in terms of NL total attendance).

.

Just one minor point- from 1970-1981, the Reds finished 1st in attendance in the NL once (1976), 2nd in attendance 5 times ('70, '73, '74, '75, '78) and 3rd in attendance 3 times ('72, '77, '79).

The popularity of the game has increased a ton since then, the Reds attendance this year of 2.2 million, which was 10/16 in the NL this year, would have been easily been 3rd in the NL in 1975.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/1975-misc.shtml

MikeS21
12-28-2011, 05:22 PM
Topping 2.5M fans (much less 3M) would be a monumental feat. This franchise has not had a top 10 finish (in terms of NL total attendance).

One thing you have to consider, the Reds record for total attendance is 2.6M, set 9in 1976 when the BRN was at the height of its popularity. Not only was the City of Cincinnati in the midst of an amzing Reds baseball frenzy, so were the states of Ohio, Indiana Kentucky and even West Virginia. That was a special time that probably won't be replicated again. For one thing, the stewardship of people like Dick Wagner, John Allen, Marge Schott and Carl Lindner has shrivelled the fanbase considerably.

Something else to consider. The BRM played its games in Riverfront Stadium which had a capacity for baseball of almost 53K. GAB's capacity is just over 42K. There were a lot of sellouts (or near sellouts) for prime games. I remember 3 game series against the Braves and Dodgers that drew 150K - something that the GAB is not capable of duplicating.

Just for argument sake, say 2.5 million is the ceiling for attendance , and I'm guessing here, but say $100 million is the payroll limit. What happens when the market reaches saturation?

This obviously is a baseball industry question as opposed to a Joey Votto knock. Look at the Angels. In 2012, they will owe Vernon Wells $21 million, Torii Hunter $18 million, Jered Weaver $14 million, Dan Haren $12.75 (round to $13 million), Santana gets roughly $11 million. If my math is right, that's $77 million on five players. Add Pujols and Wilson, and the Angels are paying seven players $112 million, and that doesn't count the other 18 players on the 25 man roster or any of the replacement players brought in to fill in for injuries, etc.

There is no way the Reds can generate enough attendance to compete with that - even in the next ten years. Splurging on one Joey Votto at $20-$21 million for eight years will do no good when teams you gotta beat have five Joey Vottos.

That brings us back to the farm system. If you can't beat them in the money game, then you have grow your own talent. It isn't always pretty and it doesn't make a big splash at the Winter Meetings or during the off season trades or at the Trading Deadline, but it is the best way the smaller market teams can compete. As much as I want to see Votto stay, the absolute best use of that $20 million is to be used to scout, draft, and develop home grown talent. That is the only way I can see for the Reds to compete. And wait until Theo spends that Chicago money on four or five $20 million superstars, and it will become painfully obvious right in our own division that we cannot compete.

corkedbat
12-28-2011, 05:31 PM
Just one minor point- from 1970-1981, the Reds finished 1st in attendance in the NL once (1976), 2nd in attendance 5 times ('70, '73, '74, '75, '78) and 3rd in attendance 3 times ('72, '77, '79).

The popularity of the game has increased a ton since then, the Reds attendance this year of 2.2 million, which was 10/16 in the NL this year, would have been easily been 3rd in the NL in 1975.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/1975-misc.shtml

The popularity HAS increased across the sport, but not so much across Reds country. The Reds fanbase took the breakup of the BRM and the fullblown onset of free aganct hard. They were also scarred by the strike-shortened years and interest hasn't fully bounced back. Add in couple of decades of vey poor Front Office leadership, decision making, more baseball on TV, more recreational/entertainment options, an eroding outer maket and a smaller stadium and reaching the 2.5M+ days fo the mid-to-late 70's will be a feat. Creasting the 3M mark would be close to supernatural.

I wasn't trying to slam Reds fans here. I believe there is a solid core that is still as rabid as any in baseball. I just think there has been erosion around the edges adnit is as extensive as it once was.

corkedbat
12-28-2011, 05:55 PM
Just for argument sake, say 2.5 million is the ceiling for attendance , and I'm guessing here, but say $100 million is the payroll limit. What happens when the market reaches saturation?

This obviously is a baseball industry question as opposed to a Joey Votto knock. Look at the Angels. In 2012, they will owe Vernon Wells $21 million, Torii Hunter $18 million, Jered Weaver $14 million, Dan Haren $12.75 (round to $13 million), Santana gets roughly $11 million. If my math is right, that's $77 million on five players. Add Pujols and Wilson, and the Angels are paying seven players $112 million, and that doesn't count the other 18 players on the 25 man roster or any of the replacement players brought in to fill in for injuries, etc.

There is no way the Reds can generate enough attendance to compete with that - even in the next ten years. Splurging on one Joey Votto at $20-$21 million for eight years will do no good when teams you gotta beat have five Joey Vottos.

That brings us back to the farm system. If you can't beat them in the money game, then you have grow your own talent. It isn't always pretty and it doesn't make a big splash at the Winter Meetings or during the off season trades or at the Trading Deadline, but it is the best way the smaller market teams can compete. As much as I want to see Votto stay, the absolute best use of that $20 million is to be used to scout, draft, and develop home grown talent. That is the only way I can see for the Reds to compete. And wait until Theo spends that Chicago money on four or five $20 million superstars, and it will become painfully obvious right in our own division that we cannot compete.

Oh, won't argue with you. A 2,5M total attendance (if sustained) could probably support a #100M payroll, but maybe not much more. There could be some room for growth. They will undoubtedly continue to push to seat-price envelope, but that is limited. To allow for expanded salary structure, the sports (and indiviual clubs_ will have to find new revenues to grow revenue streams. The two most likley sources? Expanded in-stadium fan experiences and the sports cyber-presence.

Beyond that, I believe the reds will need to live within a maximum$90-100M budget for some time to come. That means constant churn in the organization. Veterans moved while they still have value, top minor leaguers moved to find pieces not in-house and then higher priced- vets moved to erplenish the lost young talent. It means VERY few contracts that reach above the $20M mark(especially for multiple years). It also means no more "loyalty extensions" like those given to Arroyo and Rolen.

I wouldn't extend Votto or Phillips. I'd deal them both and try to fill three or four spots with younger solution while saving their money to fix other holes. You'll neer replace JV with a single equal talent so you need to try to better at least two or three spots significantly.

I can agree to an extent with trying to build around Votto and win noiw. Problem is, we've used up most of our surplus resources and there are still serious holes to fill. I can just imagine how this problem would magnify if we pay him #20-25M per year for about 8-10 years.

mth123
12-28-2011, 05:57 PM
The Griffey years were unfortunate, but the fact that so much salary was tied up in Griffey is really obfuscating the real problem. The team couldn't put talent around him because it didn't have enough young cheap players coming up through the farm system. The Reds were paying guys like Jeff Conine, Mike Stanton and John Vanderwahl in $2 and $3 Million chunks to play minor roles. This team is in a very different place. Griffey's injury issues preventinhg him from being the actual centerpiece that he was envisoned to be was the rest of the problem. The difference between a $15 Million Votto, which I think everyone thinks we can affford, and a $20 Million dollar Votto is simply substituting a couple of kids for pricey vets to pitch the 6th inning or back-up at 3B. The Reds have the kids to churn those guys through, ship 'em out when they cost too much and bring in new ones. Even at $22 Million, I think the team could afford Votto. Pay for a base of production and play smart filling in around them.

mdccclxix
12-28-2011, 06:04 PM
I agree mth. Plus the marketing and stability of having a superstar like Votto will help ticket sales and merchandise. The drop off there post-Votto would be drastic, as it was when the Griffey-Dunn era was over. Fans on Redszone may see potential in a player like Soto, but the general public will lose some interest if Votto leaves. The winning culture is more important than any one player though. If the Reds are winning in 2012 and 2013, and not in some sort of heartbreaking fashion, the fans will gather round with great interest towards 2014, Votto or not. Especially if the pitching staff is as dominant as it could be with Latos, Cueto, Chapman, Leake, Bailey all still there potentially. Like it's been said, a lot will happen to make 2012, 2013, and 2014 look very different and in unpredictable ways. Until then, it's not out of the realm of possibility that the Reds could afford 22 million with Votto over 7-8 years. It will all depend on the ability to continue to produce young affordable talent.

corkedbat
12-28-2011, 06:10 PM
The Griffey years were unfortunate, but the fact that so much salary was tied up in Griffey is really obfuscating the real problem. The team couldn't put talent around him because it didn't have enough young cheap players coming up through the farm system. The Reds were paying guys like Jeff Conine, Mike Stanton and John Vanderwahl in $2 and $3 Million chuncks to play minor roles. This team is in a very different place. Griffey's injury issues preventinhg him from being the actual centerpiece that he was envisoned to be was the rest of the problem. The difference between a $15 Million Votto, which I think everyone thinks we can affford, and a $20 Million dollar Votto is simply substituting a couple of kids for pricey vets to pitch the 6th inning or back-up at 3B. The Reds have the kids to churn those guys through, ship 'em out when they cost too much and bring in new ones. Even at $22 Million, I think the team could afford Votto. Pay for a base of production and play smart filling in around them.

A team like the Reds needs to pay the top three pitchers in the rotation and the guys in the 3-4-5 guys in the lineup. A leadoff hitter and a closer a notch belwo, followed by the other rotation and position starters and maybe another high-leverage setup guy. The bench and the MRs need to be filled with younger, less-expensive guys.

That makes any pre-arb TOR starter or middle of the order bat the one of the most valuable assets on the roster because it frees up maybe a little more salary for other prime players. Spending more thatn $18M or so on anyone is a huge draf on the salary-structure and probably means some hefty cuts elsewhere. It should only be done if there is no alternative way.

offering your vets that are good, but not great a $5 or 6M+ multi-year deal is probably the most costly mistake you can make. Spending $3M (or more) on a reserve for a job that a younger guy can do is not far behind.

mth123
12-28-2011, 08:06 PM
A team like the Reds needs to pay the top three pitchers in the rotation and the guys in the 3-4-5 guys in the lineup. A leadoff hitter and a closer a notch belwo, followed by the other rotation and position starters and maybe another high-leverage setup guy. The bench and the MRs need to be filled with younger, less-expensive guys.

That makes any pre-arb TOR starter or middle of the order bat the one of the most valuable assets on the roster because it frees up maybe a little more salary for other prime players. Spending more thatn $18M or so on anyone is a huge draf on the salary-structure and probably means some hefty cuts elsewhere. It should only be done if there is no alternative way.

offering your vets that are good, but not great a $5 or 6M+ multi-year deal is probably the most costly mistake you can make. Spending $3M (or more) on a reserve for a job that a younger guy can do is not far behind.

Agreed. The bolded part is exactly why, as much as I like him, extending Phillips is a bad idea. Same as it was with Arroyo and even Rolen. Some of those Bullpen guys will need to go as well after 2012 and maybe Stubbs as well. If the Reds are going to extend Marshall, he should probably be the closer. Chapman making $3 Million plus to pitch in AAA is a waste as well, though this year the team can probably afford it. Next season will be an issue though. Latos, Cueto, Leake and Arroyo are locked in. If Chapman is ready, there isn't room for Bailey and he's too good to hold as a sixth starter. I'd seriously consider dealing Bailey for Seth Smith and signing a cheap vet for a similar $2 Millionish to be the 5th starter (Paul Maholm anyone) this year. I like Bailey a lot, but his injury issues are concerning and one area that can be backfilled on the cheap is at back of the rotation starter. If some team wants to give up a pretty good player with the idea that Bailey may be their future ace. Heck this could be bundled up all together. Bailey and Masset for Seth Smith and a prospect. Then sign Madson and Maholm.

HokieRed
12-28-2011, 08:16 PM
Agreed. The bolded part is exactly why, as much as I like him, extending Phillips is a bad idea. Same as it was with Arroyo and even Rolen. Some of those Bullpen guys will need to go as well after 2012 and maybe Stubbs as well. If the Reds are going to extend Marshall, he should probably be the closer. Chapman making $3 Million plus to pitch in AAA is a waste as well, though this year the team can probably afford it. Next season will be an issue though. Latos, Cueto, Leake and Arroyo are locked in. If Chapman is ready, there isn't room for Bailey and he's too good to hold as a sixth starter. I'd seriously consider dealing Bailey for Seth Smith and signing a cheap vet for a similar $2 Millionish to be the 5th starter (Paul Maholm anyone) this year. I like Bailey a lot, but his injury issues are concerning and one area that can be backfilled on the cheap is at back of the rotation starter. If some team wants to give up a pretty good player with the idea that Bailey may be their future ace. Heck this could be bundled up all together. Bailey and Masset for Seth Smith and a prospect. Then sign Madson and Maholm.

I'm 50% in agreement on Phillips. But I'd do the calculation on Bailey differently here: he still is, for me, the one guy on the team who could break through and be a real difference maker, for a very modest salary at that. Keeping Bailey is a way to roll the dice. If he comes through, Latos does what we expect, and Cueto holds up, we win the division even if Arroyo stinks it up again and Chapman spends the whole year at Louisville. The big contract mistake was, of course, Arroyo. That kind of mistake has to be avoided from now on, no exceptions.

Always Red
12-29-2011, 07:59 AM
The popularity HAS increased across the sport, but not so much across Reds country. The Reds fanbase took the breakup of the BRM and the fullblown onset of free aganct hard. They were also scarred by the strike-shortened years and interest hasn't fully bounced back. Add in couple of decades of vey poor Front Office leadership, decision making, more baseball on TV, more recreational/entertainment options, an eroding outer maket and a smaller stadium and reaching the 2.5M+ days fo the mid-to-late 70's will be a feat. Creasting the 3M mark would be close to supernatural.

I wasn't trying to slam Reds fans here. I believe there is a solid core that is still as rabid as any in baseball. I just think there has been erosion around the edges adnit is as extensive as it once was.

All true, and I agree that 2.5 million a year would be both an excellent goal and a momentous feat.

The population of this area has decreased slightly since the 70's, and while Cincinnati is considered by most to be a "baseball town", most of us know that it really has become more of a football town (other than the recent tantrum thrown against Mikey Brown by Bengals fans).

Looking back on it now, I think it'd be easy to make a case for the huge attendance spike (for the Reds) in the 70's being a combination of a great team, a new stadium that could seat 56k for baseball, and literally millions of band wagon fans. When the BRM broke down, those fans went away.

In other words, the attendance we are seeing here now, and before that in the 50's and 60's is more the norm for the Reds, not the perfect storm of the 70's.

REDREAD
12-29-2011, 11:04 AM
I'm not so sure Bronson and Rolen were mistakes.
Granted, it did not work out so well last year.
However, we enter this year with lots of upside from both of them.

If Bronson gives us 200-200 IP of 4-4.50 ERA ball next year (not out of the realm of possiblity), he's earned his entire contract. Yes, I give him a pass for last year as well.

Likewise with Rolen. I don't expect another MVP like season out of him, but
he's still an outstanding fielder. If his shoulder has recovered, there's a chance he's the best 3b in the division. That's a significant advantage.

It's hard to find players like Rolen and Arroyo that want to play in Cincy.
We can't just go out on the FA market and automatically sign the best 10 million dollar starting pitcher. The competition is intense.. we learned that from the bidding wars we had for Cordero and AGon.

So in summary, I agree that Rolen and Arroyo don't necessary give the optimal $/WAR but the farm system can only produce so much talent.
Extending a vet that wants to stay here is not necessarily a bad thing, even if you have to pay market value.
For example, if Arroyo was allowed to walk.. would Wood have been avaiable to trade for Marshall? Would we have the luxury of letting Chapman to go to AAA to become a starter?
Many things are interwoven.. We can't really say in a vaccum.. "Obviously Bronson should not have been resigned".. At least not at this point.
If Bronson continues to lay an egg the rest of this contract, then I agree, it was a monumental mistake, and the people that forsaw this were correct.
I just think it's too early to call it now. Not saying this to defend Walt..
I just still think there's potential for both Rolen and Arroyo to earn their salaries next year.

Team Clark
01-01-2012, 01:55 AM
I guess you could always go out to a new position and REFUSE to play it well.

corkedbat
01-01-2012, 02:36 AM
I'm not so sure Bronson and Rolen were mistakes.
Granted, it did not work out so well last year.
However, we enter this year with lots of upside from both of them.

If Bronson gives us 200-200 IP of 4-4.50 ERA ball next year (not out of the realm of possiblity), he's earned his entire contract. Yes, I give him a pass for last year as well.

Likewise with Rolen. I don't expect another MVP like season out of him, but
he's still an outstanding fielder. If his shoulder has recovered, there's a chance he's the best 3b in the division. That's a significant advantage.

It's hard to find players like Rolen and Arroyo that want to play in Cincy.
We can't just go out on the FA market and automatically sign the best 10 million dollar starting pitcher. The competition is intense.. we learned that from the bidding wars we had for Cordero and AGon.

So in summary, I agree that Rolen and Arroyo don't necessary give the optimal $/WAR but the farm system can only produce so much talent.
Extending a vet that wants to stay here is not necessarily a bad thing, even if you have to pay market value.
For example, if Arroyo was allowed to walk.. would Wood have been avaiable to trade for Marshall? Would we have the luxury of letting Chapman to go to AAA to become a starter?
Many things are interwoven.. We can't really say in a vaccum.. "Obviously Bronson should not have been resigned".. At least not at this point.
If Bronson continues to lay an egg the rest of this contract, then I agree, it was a monumental mistake, and the people that forsaw this were correct.
I just think it's too early to call it now. Not saying this to defend Walt..
I just still think there's potential for both Rolen and Arroyo to earn their salaries next year.

I was all for picking up his option, but the extension was unnecessary. With the young pitching coming up, the $12M could have been better spent instead of him taking a spot next year, in addition to next.

Rolen's health issues were easily forseeable. Some were talking that the Reds would sign him when he was acquired and I was against it then bcause of chronic issues. Any money spent toward him should have been used to bring a middle of the order bat.

The saving grace with Rolen is his contract ends after the 2012 season. I am praying right now that he (and JF) can come through with one more solid season at the plate instead of being another lightweight bat wasting a corner position. Problem is, if he does, they'll probably try to extend him again.

jojo
01-04-2012, 02:48 PM
Dave Cameron at USSM discusses a contract structure that might allow the Ms to sign Prince Fielder. This might be a way the Reds could extend Votto that works well for both sides...

http://www.ussmariner.com/2012/01/04/prince-fielder-opt-outs-and-a-contract-i-would-support/#comments