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Benihana
08-23-2011, 06:29 PM
With Wilson out, how about sending them Coco to close games down the stretch? At a minimum, maybe we could squeeze out Surkamp.

If they don't (although I think they should) intend on offering Hernandez arbitration, they might as well try to sneak him through waivers and could juice the return on a Cordero trade.

Hernandez and Coco could probably pry away one of the Jints' best prospects, as they both fill critical needs for them down the stretch. They're 1 game out and may just be desperate enough to make a move like this, especially after giving up their best pitching prospect for a rental. As last year showed, they can compete with anyone in a short series, but they have to get there first. These guys could help them do that.

Maybe add a younger player (Francisco, Frazier, Heisey, Sappelt, Alonso?) and see if we can't pry away Brandon Belt to man LF for years to come.

Kc61
08-23-2011, 06:38 PM
Makes too much sense. Won't happen.

camisadelgolf
08-23-2011, 07:25 PM
There's no way the Giants would pay over $4M and one of their top prospects just to have Cordero and Hernandez for less than 35 games. If they were going to do a deal like that, it would've happened in July. I could see either player getting moved, but don't expect much in return.

Guacarock
08-23-2011, 07:44 PM
There's no way the Giants would pay over $4M and one of their top prospects just to have Cordero and Hernandez for less than 35 games. If they were going to do a deal like that, it would've happened in July. I could see either player getting moved, but don't expect much in return.

I agree with you to an extent. Giants wouldn't give us one of their premium prospects for only 35 games worth of Hernandez and Cordero, especially if we asked the Giants to assume both salaries.

But if we made Cordero and Hernandez available, and we agreed to pay the lion's share of their remaining salaries (say, we pick up $3 million and the Giants foot the balance), then that would be worth a premium prospect in return. I would fork out the $3 million to get a guy like Belt (who we could plug into LF right away in 2012) or Surkamp (who has the potential to be a TOR starting pitcher in a few years).

If I could deal Cordero, Hernandez and say, Francisco and another low-level prospect to get both Belt and Surkamp, I would do it and pay the full balances of Cordero and Hernandez's 2011 salaries, plus Cordero's 2012 buyout. In a heartbeat! No questions asked!

camisadelgolf
08-23-2011, 07:56 PM
I would do that deal, too, but Brandon Belt is one of the top prospects in the game. If they trade him, they're going to get a lot more than Cordero, Hernandez, and cash.

edabbs44
08-23-2011, 07:56 PM
They have plenty of talent in the bullpen, don't they?

Blitz Dorsey
08-23-2011, 08:34 PM
The trade that made even more sense would have been Ramon Hernandez to the Giants. Their catching situation has been garbage since Posey was lost for the season. Can't believe they didn't address that. Their new "starter" Whiteside is atrocious. The Reds should have tried to make something happen there. Maybe they did and we just don't know about it. But that would entail waking Walt up from his fifth nap of the day. No one wants to do that.

Big Klu
08-24-2011, 12:10 AM
The trade that made even more sense would have been Ramon Hernandez to the Giants. Their catching situation has been garbage since Posey was lost for the season. Can't believe they didn't address that. Their new "starter" Whiteside is atrocious. The Reds should have tried to make something happen there. Maybe they did and we just don't know about it. But that would entail waking Walt up from his fifth nap of the day. No one wants to do that.

Why is Walt the one who is asleep? Sabean is the one who is playing without a catcher.

HokieRed
08-24-2011, 12:13 AM
I suspect these trades have already been talked about at length between Walt and Sabean, no matter what anybody's said or not said. And I also suspect they are not willing to give up Surkamp for a combination of Hernandez and Cordero. They think they'll get them cheaper.

Benihana
08-24-2011, 12:41 PM
Why is Walt the one who is asleep? Sabean is the one who is playing without a catcher.

Because Sabean won a WS last year and traded for the best hitter on the market last month. What has Walt done...lately?

REDREAD
08-24-2011, 01:31 PM
Because Sabean won a WS last year and traded for the best hitter on the market last month. What has Walt done...lately?

Walt has no pressing need to give away Hernandez or Coco. The Reds can afford to pay them the rest of the season.

The Reds should not give away any players for simply the "best offer". We need at least one interesting player back in return. That player doesn't necessarily have to be Belt or Surkump.. However, I have learned throughout the years that trading away veterans for "prospects" like Bong, Belisle, and Hummel really isn't worth doing. Over the years, the Pirates got a reputation that they would dump any veteran player for peanuts at the deadline, and they generally did very poorly in their "reload" trades.

The Giants are the ones that would benefit the most if Hernandez is sent their way. (I guess Coco is debatable").. The ball is in their court.

cincrazy
08-24-2011, 01:49 PM
If we were Giants fans, would we approve of our team trading Brandon Belt for CoCo and Razor? No way on earth. Cordero is an average closer and Hernandez is a productive catcher, true, but he's not going to give them THAT much of a boost, if any at all. Their offense is so bad a player like Hernandez isn't going to make all that much of a difference because the guy isn't a high-end bat, especially outside of GABP.

Slyder
08-24-2011, 02:20 PM
If the Giants give us something that measures better immediate value than draft picks I trade both Hernandez and Coco to them, they are not part of the future let's see where we stack with what we have going into next year. I highly doubt either would accept arbitration with the market for any semblance of pitching and catchers that aren't black holes with the bat that they both will get better offers than what they'd get from going to arbitration.

kaldaniels
08-24-2011, 02:25 PM
The trade that made even more sense would have been Ramon Hernandez to the Giants. Their catching situation has been garbage since Posey was lost for the season. Can't believe they didn't address that. Their new "starter" Whiteside is atrocious. The Reds should have tried to make something happen there. Maybe they did and we just don't know about it. But that would entail waking Walt up from his fifth nap of the day. No one wants to do that.

That's a blow beneath the belt if you ask me. What were the Giants offering in return? No one knows. I wish we got something too, but didn't want to be taken for a sucker either.

jojo
08-24-2011, 02:26 PM
I would do that deal, too, but Brandon Belt is one of the top prospects in the game. If they trade him, they're going to get a lot more than Cordero, Hernandez, and cash.

Pretty much and Belt is mostly a first baseman too...

Guacarock
08-24-2011, 02:42 PM
Looks like the Giants have placed a waiver wire claim on Padres closer Heath Bell:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/08/giants-claim-heath-bell-on-waivers.html

Assuming they can work out a trade with the Padres, looks like we'll have to dial back our discussions -- leaving Cordero out of the picture, and focusing exclusively on what Hernandez might bring us back in a late-season trade.

REDREAD
08-24-2011, 04:35 PM
To add to the discussion, I think there's a zero chance the Reds offer CoCo arb.
It's just WAY too risky. In fact, Coco would probably accept in a heartbeat.
If Coco goes to arb, he probably makes at least what he's making this year.
If Coco hits the open market, he's almost guaranteed a pay cut.

We've pretty much already spent Coco's salary slot next year.
Coco accepting arb would be a nightmare.. it could force us to dump Phillips or another player who is far more valuable than Coco.. not worth the risk.

Benihana
08-24-2011, 05:36 PM
Walt has no pressing need to give away Hernandez or Coco. The Reds can afford to pay them the rest of the season.

The Reds should not give away any players for simply the "best offer". We need at least one interesting player back in return. That player doesn't necessarily have to be Belt or Surkump.. However, I have learned throughout the years that trading away veterans for "prospects" like Bong, Belisle, and Hummel really isn't worth doing. Over the years, the Pirates got a reputation that they would dump any veteran player for peanuts at the deadline, and they generally did very poorly in their "reload" trades.

The Giants are the ones that would benefit the most if Hernandez is sent their way. (I guess Coco is debatable").. The ball is in their court.

What about dealing veterans for "prospects" like Nick Masset- which is a lot more applicable to this situation because that was a Walt (post-deadline)trade, not a JimBo trade.

Slyder
08-24-2011, 06:11 PM
What about dealing veterans for "prospects" like Nick Masset- which is a lot more applicable to this situation because that was a Walt (post-deadline)trade, not a JimBo trade.

Or trading an established player like Lee May for prospects including a troublemaker (Houston's manager called him that) like Joe Morgan, 23 year old prospect Cesar Geronimo?

I know waiver deals are different but you never know where the diamonds are.

REDREAD
08-25-2011, 03:08 PM
What about dealing veterans for "prospects" like Nick Masset- which is a lot more applicable to this situation because that was a Walt (post-deadline)trade, not a JimBo trade.

If we can get someone like Masset for Ramon, then I'm all for a trade.
My point is that some people are claiming that the Reds should trade Ramon for anything.. One poster even said that the 500kish salary relief would be worth it.
IMO. that's wrong.

My guess is that the Giants are not willing to give up significant talent for Ramon.
Therefore, the Reds are right to keep him. The Giants would likely benefit more from this trade than the Reds.. Why give Ramon away?

Rojo
08-25-2011, 03:51 PM
If we can get someone like Masset for Ramon, then I'm all for a trade.

You mean season-killers?

camisadelgolf
08-25-2011, 05:13 PM
What makes you think another team wouldn't claim Hernandez before the Giants got a chance?

LoganBuck
08-25-2011, 05:20 PM
What makes you think another team wouldn't claim Hernandez before the Giants got a chance?

Too much is made of the blocking of claims by other teams. Only St. Louis and Colorado with even a remote slim chance to make the playoffs, ahead of Giants in the order. IMO, outside of being a PITA, no one else would claim Ramon.

Ron Madden
08-28-2011, 04:46 AM
If we can get someone like Masset for Ramon, then I'm all for a trade.
My point is that some people are claiming that the Reds should trade Ramon for anything.. One poster even said that the 500kish salary relief would be worth it.
IMO. that's wrong.

My guess is that the Giants are not willing to give up significant talent for Ramon.
Therefore, the Reds are right to keep him. The Giants would likely benefit more from this trade than the Reds.. Why give Ramon away?

They'll let Hernandez walk away and receive nothing in return this offseason.

PuffyPig
08-28-2011, 08:57 AM
They'll let Hernandez walk away and receive nothing in return this offseason.

That's likely better than accepting a marginal prospect in return.

Walt does that and it hurts his ability to play hardball in the future. Teams need to know that he is prepared to stand pat if the return is simply not worth it.

Slyder
08-28-2011, 09:42 AM
That's likely better than accepting a marginal prospect in return.

Walt does that and it hurts his ability to play hardball in the future. Teams need to know that he is prepared to stand pat if the return is simply not worth it.

One trade a trend does not make. The circumstances that are allowing us to discuss trading Hernandez (Hanigan signed cheaply to be co-starter/backup, Mesoraco ready and waiting for an opportunity, and Grandal behind him) and gives the Reds the ability (if they choose) to trade Ramon for whatever whoever claimed him offers. That may not be the case the next time the Reds shop a veteran at the waiver deadline. Plus you can always use the case of his free agent status as a pitch to get one "slightly better" (but not great) prospect to give the other team that incentive. I cannot see Ramon accepting arby from anyone because of how many teams need that offensive CA/DH/Backup 1b. He will probably get that 2 year deal from someone for more money than he feasibly could from arbitration.

PuffyPig
08-28-2011, 12:44 PM
I cannot see Ramon accepting arby from anyone because of how many teams need that offensive CA/DH/Backup 1b. He will probably get that 2 year deal from someone for more money than he feasibly could from arbitration.


Last year, he was a year younger, and approaching FA status. He took a one year deal instead of testing FA.

This year, he is likely a Type A, which means that (assuming he is offered arbitration) the signing team has to give up a 1st or 2nd pick in addition to satifying his monetary demands. Last year he likely felt no one would give him a multi year deal, so he jumped at the Reds offer.

I'm, not sure why it's different this year?

I expect he might get double in arbitration that he will get in FA. But I really don't know for sure, it's certainly a crap shoot. But I doubt it's a chance the Reds won't take unless Hernandez has already agreed not to accept.

nate
08-28-2011, 01:18 PM
I wonder how much playing time figures into the FA Type calculation. Could it be that Ramon ends up not being a Type A because he's only a part time player?

PuffyPig
08-28-2011, 01:47 PM
I wonder how much playing time figures into the FA Type calculation. Could it be that Ramon ends up not being a Type A because he's only a part time player?

A number of the stats are counting stats, so playing more makes a difference.

But catching offensive stats are pretty poor usually.

I tihnk last year he was a B, and specualtion is, he will be an A this year.

But I'm not sure.

Certainly less risk in offering a Type B player arbitration, as the signing team doesn't lose a draft pick, increasing the likely offers he will receive.

nate
08-28-2011, 01:53 PM
A number of the stats are counting stats, so playing more makes a difference.

But catching offensive stats are pretty poor usually.

I tihnk last year he was a B, and specualtion is, he will be an A this year.

But I'm not sure.

Certainly less risk in offering a Type B player arbitration, as the signing team doesn't lose a draft pick, increasing the likely offers he will receive.

I was going on PA being one of the stats:


Here are the stat categories used for each of the five position groups.

1B/OF/DH: PA, AVG, OBP, HR, RBI
2B/3B/SS: PA, AVG, OBP, HR, RBI, Fielding percentage, Total chances at designated position
C: PA, AVG, OBP, HR, RBI, Fielding percentage, Assists
SP: Total games (total starts + 0.5 * total relief appearances), IP, Wins, W-L Percentage, ERA, Strikeouts
RP: Total games (total relief appearances + 2 * total starts), IP (weighted slightly less than other categories), Wins + Saves, IP/H ratio, K/BB, ERA

I wonder how much that figures into the equation.

mth123
08-28-2011, 02:03 PM
Look at the splits. Hernandez has a .668 OPS away from GABP. He'll be 37 next May, his defense is below average and he can't play every day. The one thing that would interest a GM is his bat and there is a very real possibility it will be less than average in a new home park. No GM is going to match the money he's going to make in Arb and give up a high draft pick. Outside of GABP he's an interchangeable part (and maybe not a very good one). As for getting an agreement for him to decline, even if Ramon can't see that, his agent can and won't pass up the arb payday.

Anything the Reds can get is OK with me. The Reds will get more long term value by opening up PT for Mesoraco to get some of the adjustments to the big leagues out of the way than they will by holding Ramon on some principle that they should get a C+ prospect instead of a C - or AAAA filler. I just don't see how any offer of arb would be greeted with anything other than an entusiastic yes and the Reds will be paying Millions for a position that they should be able to fill for the minimum in 2012. The consequence of that, IMO, is that any ideas of James Shields or maybe a Carlos Quentin can be forgotten. Multi-millions to Ramon will make that unaffordable.

mth123
08-28-2011, 02:05 PM
I was going on PA being one of the stats:



I wonder how much that figures into the equation.

Now that you mention it, PAs are a large component of the calculation IIRC. He may not be an A. Even if he's a B, he'd be a fool to turn down arb IMO.

757690
08-28-2011, 02:09 PM
I think it's highly unlikely that Ramon would accept arbitration if the Reds offered it to him. It's not always about money.

In arbitration, he might get $6M and if he tests the free agent market, he'll at least get a one year deal like he got this season for $3M.

He's already a very rich man, able to take care of many generations of his family. A possible extra $3M isn't going to change his life one bit.

But if he goes on the open market, he can control whom he plays for, which is probably a bigger concern for him than an extra few millions dollars at this stage of his career.

And it really is a guessing game where he'll get the most money, he could get more money on the free agent market or in arbitration. I don't think anything is a certainty when it comes to the money he'll get in either situation.

I guess he's more likely to choose personal control over a chance at more money.

mth123
08-28-2011, 02:15 PM
I think it's highly unlikely that Ramon would accept arbitration if the Reds offered it to him. It's not always about money.

In arbitration, he might get $6M and if he tests the free agent market, he'll at least get a one year deal like he got this season for $3M.

He's already a very rich man, able to take care of many generations of his family. A possible extra $3M isn't going to change his life one bit.

But if he goes on the open market, he can control whom he plays for, which is probably a bigger concern for him than an extra few millions dollars at this stage of his career.

And it really is a guessing game where he'll get the most money, he could get more money on the free agent market or in arbitration. I don't think anything is a certainty when it comes to the money he'll get in either situation.

I guess he's more likely to choose personal control over a chance at more money.

Unless, of course, the park where he has a .963 home OPS is where he wants to play.

757690
08-28-2011, 02:17 PM
Look at the splits. Hernandez has a .668 OPS away from GABP. He'll be 37 next May, his defense is below average and he can't play every day. The one thing that would interest a GM is his bat and there is a very real possibility it will be less than average in a new home park. No GM is going to match the money he's going to make in Arb and give up a high draft pick. Outside of GABP he's an interchangeable part (and maybe not a very good one). As for getting an agreement for him to decline, even if Ramon can't see that, his agent can and won't pass up the arb payday.

Anything the Reds can get is OK with me. The Reds will get more long term value by opening up PT for Mesoraco to get some of the adjustments to the big leagues out of the way than they will by holding Ramon on some principle that they should get a C+ prospect instead of a C - or AAAA filler. I just don't see how any offer of arb would be greeted with anything other than an entusiastic yes and the Reds will be paying Millions for a position that they should be able to fill for the minimum in 2012. The consequence of that, IMO, is that any ideas of James Shields or maybe a Carlos Quentin can be forgotten. Multi-millions to Ramon will make that unaffordable.

However the Ramon situation works out, it won't have any effect on Mesoraco's playing time next season.

If the Reds are stuck with Ramon next season, it just means that they trade Hanigan and use Ramon how they would have used Hanigan. Ramon would be more expensive, but Hanigan would bring back some nice talent, so overall, it would probably be a wash.

mth123
08-28-2011, 02:24 PM
However the Ramon situation works out, it won't have any effect on Mesoraco's playing time next season.

If the Reds are stuck with Ramon next season, it just means that they trade Hanigan and use Ramon how they would have used Hanigan. Ramon would be more expensive, but Hanigan would bring back some nice talent, so overall, it would probably be a wash.

Disagree completely. Hanigan is one of the better defensve catchers in the game and the staff performs better when he's back there. The extra $4 or $5 Million for Ramon will preclude the Reds from acquiring what is needed IMO. Its just like the situation with the deadline. Many argued that the Reds had the most talent in the division to go make a move, while others concluded that other teams could actually make a move because they had money available. Milwaukee with the "cupboard bare" was able to turn a shaky bullpen into a strength and ran away with the division afterwards while the Reds passed on doing anything even though the Reds had a ot more guys to deal to get what they wanted.

It usually is about the money and in this case maybe that is more important for the team than anything.

Whether its Ramon or Hanigan won't matter if the Reds can't add a starter and maybe a clean-up hitter. If they are paying that extra cash to Ramon, I don't see the team having the money to do it.

And by opening PT for Mesoraco, I mean right now so that he and the staff have worked together before next spring. If Ramon is here, that time will be limited before the end of the season.

nate
08-28-2011, 02:42 PM
Disagree completely. Hanigan is one of the better defensve catchers in the game and the staff performs better when he's back there.

Measured how?

Kc61
08-28-2011, 02:45 PM
Razor usually catches Cueto. Not today. Wonder why.

PuffyPig
08-28-2011, 04:37 PM
I think it's highly unlikely that Ramon would accept arbitration if the Reds offered it to him. It's not always about money.

In arbitration, he might get $6M and if he tests the free agent market, he'll at least get a one year deal like he got this season for $3M.



I think you have fiorgotten that if he a Type A FA, no one is going to sacrifice their 1st (or 2nd for a non -contender) to sign anyone to a one year contract.

If the player isn't multi-year worthy, a type A FA could well go unsigned, hence the risk of accepting arbitration.

757690
08-28-2011, 04:50 PM
I think you have fiorgotten that if he a Type A FA, no one is going to sacrifice their 1st (or 2nd for a non -contender) to sign anyone to a one year contract.

If the player isn't multi-year worthy, a type A FA could well go unsigned, hence the risk of accepting arbitration.

A bottom 15 first round to second round pick isn't worth that much tnese days, especially since they cost around $1-2M to sign. Thee guys have less than a 50-50 chance of making it to the bigs, and a slim chance of being a regular.

It might prevent a team from signing a middle reliever whose a type A free agent, but if a team thinks Ramon will improve their catching situation, I can't imagine a team worrying about losing a draft pick.

mth123
08-28-2011, 05:02 PM
A bottom 15 first round to second round pick isn't worth that much tnese days, especially since they cost around $1-2M to sign.

Then why all the fuss and the risk of offering arb? If that pick is of little value, then why take the chance of offering arb?

757690
08-28-2011, 05:07 PM
Then why all the fuss and the risk of offering arb? If that pick is of little value, then why take the chance of offering arb?

I completely agree. It's really not much if an issue.

That's why I'm not too concerned with the Ramon situation.

Ron Madden
08-28-2011, 05:16 PM
It would be foolish for the Reds to offer Hernandez arbitration.

It would be foolish for Hernandez to turn it down if the Reds offer arbitration.

HokieRed
08-28-2011, 06:40 PM
It would be foolish for the Reds to offer Hernandez arbitration.

It would be foolish for Hernandez to turn it down if the Reds offer arbitration.

Agree 100%. And it would be foolish for Walt to accept less from SF than reasonable value and foolish for them to offer less. So I suspect it's a case of who's the fool: Walt or Sabean. My guess is Sabean.

dougdirt
08-28-2011, 06:46 PM
A bottom 15 first round to second round pick isn't worth that much tnese days, especially since they cost around $1-2M to sign. Thee guys have less than a 50-50 chance of making it to the bigs, and a slim chance of being a regular.


Those picks are worth more these days than ever before.

757690
08-28-2011, 07:14 PM
Those picks are worth more these days than ever before.

You're right.

But they still aren't worth that much. They definitely aren't worth more than a major league average catcher.

camisadelgolf
08-29-2011, 11:47 AM
A bottom 15 first round to second round pick isn't worth that much tnese days, especially since they cost around $1-2M to sign. Thee guys have less than a 50-50 chance of making it to the bigs, and a slim chance of being a regular.

It might prevent a team from signing a middle reliever whose a type A free agent, but if a team thinks Ramon will improve their catching situation, I can't imagine a team worrying about losing a draft pick.
I'm pretty sure they have better than a 50/50 chance of making it to the bigs.

PuffyPig
08-29-2011, 12:34 PM
It might prevent a team from signing a middle reliever whose a type A free agent, but if a team thinks Ramon will improve their catching situation, I can't imagine a team worrying about losing a draft pick.

But teams do worry about losing a draft pick.

Teams don't historically lose high picks for aging catchers like Hernandez.

Would you want to give up our very late round pick this year (Stephenson) for a player like Hernandez?

klw
08-31-2011, 07:29 PM
Rowand and Tejada were dfa'd by SF today. Giants likely eating about $15 million in salary.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/6913478/san-francisco-giants-miguel-tejada-aaron-rowand-designated

Patrick Bateman
08-31-2011, 07:42 PM
But teams do worry about losing a draft pick.

Teams don't historically lose high picks for aging catchers like Hernandez.

Would you want to give up our very late round pick this year (Stephenson) for a player like Hernandez?

Unless Damon Berryhill is available....

PuffyPig
08-31-2011, 08:17 PM
Unless Damon Berryhill is available....

I actually thought of him at the time I posted it, but he wasn't 35, but he was 32 and stunk enough that it's the same thing..