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Benihana
08-24-2011, 11:36 AM
Assumptions

The following players either make the OD roster (or are traded in the offseason):

Devin Mesoraco
Zack Cozart
Yonder Alonso
Todd Frazier
Juan Francisco
Dave Sappelt
Either Travis Wood or Edinson Volquez

Omissions

There are some familiar names that don’t appear below, including Chris Valaika, Danny Dorn, Kris Negron, Miguel Rojas, Chris Richburg, etc. It is either because their time has passed (Valaika, Dorn, Negron) and I’m not sure what role they will have in the organization going forward or because I don’t really see them as significant prospects (Rojas, Richburg). Also inevitably, there will be some suggested additions ("don't forget so-and-so") and while I welcome those, what I tried to do here was highlight what I felt are the most significant minor leaguers to watch in the Reds system. Of course I may have missed one or two, but these are the guys to pay attention to IMO.

Without further ado:

AAA Louisville
C Yasmani Grandal
1B Neftali Soto
2B Henry Rodriguez
SS DiDi Gregorius
3B Eric Campbell
LF Cody Puckett
CF Felix Perez
RF Dennis Phipps

SP Edinson Volquez/Travis Wood (whichever doesn’t make the OD rotation)
SP Matt Maloney
RP Brad Boxberger closing (if he doesn’t make OD bullpen)
RP Donnie Joseph setting him up


AA Carolina
C Kevin Coddington/Mark Fleury
1B ???
2B Devin Lohman/Alex Buchholz
SS Brodie Greene
3B David Vidal (skipping A+)
LF Josh Fellhauer
CF Ryan LaMarre
RF Dayne Read

SP J.C. Sulbaran
SP Josh Ravin
SP Daniel Renken

A+ Pensacola
C Tucker Barnhart
1B Dominic D’Anna
2B Ronald Torreyes
SS Billy Hamilton
3B Sean Buckley (skipping A)
LF Juan Duran
CF ???
RF ???

SP Daniel Corcino
SP Kyle Lotzkar
SP Josh Smith
SP Mitchell Clarke

A Dayton
C Danny Vicioso
1B Nick O’Shea
2B Ryan Wright
SS Juan Perez
3B Junior Arias (could repeat Billings)
LF Juan Silva
CF Kyle Waldrop
RF Yorman Rodriguez

SP Robert Stephenson (could start in Billings, but I’d like to see him in Dayton)
SP Tony Cingrani
SP Drew Cisco
SP Ismael Guillon (could repeat Billings)

Players On The Fringe Levels

Devin Lohman (A+/AA)
Daniel Renken (A+/AA)
Josh Smith (A+/AA)
David Vidal (A+/AA)
Sean Buckley (A/A+)
Junior Arias (A/Rookie)
Robert Stephenson (A/Rookie)
Ismael Guillon (A/Rookie)

Top Prospects (not including Rookie Leaguers)

1. Yasmani Grandal C AAA
2. Neftali Soto 1B AAA
3. Daniel Corcino RHP A+
4. Robert Stephenson RHP A
5. Ronald Torreyes 2B A+
6. Billy Hamilton SS A+
7. Juan Duran LF/1B A+
8. Yorman Rodriguez OF A
9. Brad Boxberger RHP AAA
10. Tony Cingrani LHP A

Rookie Leaguers To Watch

3B Gabriel Rosa - Billings
SS Brandon Dailey - Billings
2B Humberto Valor - AZL
SS Oliviel Florentino - AZL
LHP Amir Garrett - AZL
RHP Salvatore Romano - AZL
RHP Kyle McMyne - Billings
RHP Wes Mugarian - Billings
RHP Jonathan Perez? - AZL (if he’s not in the VSL)

Reds seem to have a logjam at 3B in the lower minors, which is a good thing considering the big league status at that position. If Francisco and Frazier both make the OD roster (or are traded in the offseason), then I would start Campbell in Louisville, have Vidal and Buckley both skip a level to start at Carolina and Pensacola respectively, start Arias in Dayton and Rosa in Billings. Otherwise everyone could start a level lower and Arias would play MI while Rosa plays 3B in Billings.

The starting pitching in AA and AAA is pretty bleak. Klinker, Fairel and company are fringe guys. It is debatable whether Guillon, McMyne and Mugarian start in Billings or Dayton, as none of them have been all that impressive in Billings this year. I think Stephenson and Cisco should both join Cingrani in starting in Dayton. Corcino, Lotzkar, Smith, and Clarke will headline the Pensacola rotation, and Daniel Renken could either pitch there or in Carolina.

Duran could play 1B or LF in Pensacola, but I’d keep Yorman back in Dayton at least to start the year. Could be a wake up call for the kid. Will be interesting to see who gets slotted in CF between Yorman and Waldrop. My money is on Waldrop.

Thoughts?

mace
08-24-2011, 12:15 PM
First, isn't Pensacola to be the AA franchise, with A+ back in Bakersfield? Carolina's the franchise that will be out of the system (unless it comes back a year later in the A+ Carolina League).

This is a good working reference. Thanks, Beni.

The most glaring omission I see right off is Donald Lutz. To me, he's definitely a prospect.

I also wonder about the status of acquisitions such as Bill Rhinehart and Quintin Berry. Others are better than I am at determining whose rights are maintained and how.

I would hope that Jordan Hotchkiss would return and find a place in a rotation.

I disagree on two guys. I don't believe Rojas would be considered a non-prospect at this point. His defense is too good, and he has shown an occasional aptitude for hitting at least a little bit. And I wouldn't expect them to start Cisco at Dayton. Or Stephenson, for that matter.

Benihana
08-24-2011, 12:28 PM
First, isn't Pensacola to be the AA franchise, with A+ back in Bakersfield? Carolina's the franchise that will be out of the system (unless it comes back a year later in the A+ Carolina League).

This is a good working reference. Thanks, Beni.

The most glaring omission I see right off is Donald Lutz. To me, he's definitely a prospect.

I also wonder about the status of acquisitions such as Bill Rhinehart and Quintin Berry. Others are better than I am at determining whose rights are maintained and how.

I would hope that Jordan Hotchkiss would return and find a place in a rotation.

I disagree on two guys. I don't believe Rojas would be considered a non-prospect at this point. His defense is too good, and he has shown an occasional aptitude for hitting at least a little bit. And I wouldn't expect them to start Cisco at Dayton. Or Stephenson, for that matter.

Sorry I guess I was confused on the whole Pensacola thing. I thought about Rhinehart and Berry but I'm not sure where they'd fit into the Louisville mix? I like Puckett and Phipps both better as corner OF. Berry turns 27 in a couple months and has never played above AA. Rhinehart just strikes me as a minor league masher, not a real prospect. Hotchkiss could bounce back, although he'll be a 26 year old in AA next year, which doesn't exactly scream prospect to watch IMO.

Lutz can hit but I'm not sure where he plays on the field (if anywhere). Rojas, at least in my mind, can't hit enough to be a real prospect. While still young, a career .605 OPS in the low minors doesn't have me holding my breath. At best he looks like Juan Castro or Paul Janish redux.

You may be right about Cisco and Stephenson starting in Billings instead of Dayton. I guess I was just hoping they'd start there- Stephenson as a first rounder, and Cisco as a 20 year old who was drafted with "first round polish/readiness".

Dan
08-24-2011, 01:26 PM
Lutz can hit but I'm not sure where he plays on the field (if anywhere).

Doesn't he play 1b ahead of D'Anna now? If there is that big of a hole at 1b at AA, could Lutz be jumped a level to fill that spot?

/"challenge thy hitters" -- Princeton

Benihana
08-24-2011, 01:30 PM
If there is that big of a hole at 1b at AA, could Lutz be jumped a level to fill that spot?

/"challenge thy hitters" -- Princeton

Good point. That may be a good idea. I'm not sure who would be a better candidate to make the jump though- Lutz or D'Anna.

cinreds21
08-24-2011, 02:28 PM
First off here are the minor league free agents the Reds have:

Cochran
Hamulack
Mobley
Berry
Campbell
Skelton
Phipps
Corky
Avery
Cook
Gil
Gustafson
Lehr
Reinke
Castro
Costanzo
Griffin

Here is how I see Triple-A and Double-A Pensacola panning out:

Rotation:
Carroll
McCulloch
Hynick
Wood/Leake
Klinker

Avery might resign.

Bullpen:
Christiani
Boxberger
Smith
Horst
Webb
and MAYBE Freeman or Joseph.

lineup:
Yas
Soto
Valakia
Negron
Francisco/free agent
Perez
Phipps
Dorn/Yonder/Puckett/free agent. Puck may go back to Double-A though. Doubtful


Double-A Pensacola
SP:
Fairel
Hotchkiss
Ravin
Villarreal
Sulbaran/Partch/Serrano

Pen:
Maybe Freeman and Joseph return, but could go to Trips. Bullpen could be toughest to predict.

lineup:
Coddington/Flurey. Maybe Grandal even.
1B-not sure
2B- Rodriguez
3B-Buccholtz/Rojas/Jake
SS-DiDi
OF-Fellhauer, LaMaree, Hunt.

nemesis
08-24-2011, 02:42 PM
I would imagine Hunt will be the 1B/ 4th OF in Pensacola next year.

mace
08-24-2011, 02:56 PM
Welcome back, 21. Missed you.

mace
08-24-2011, 03:07 PM
Would Jerry Gil have to go on the 40-man to be protected? If so, that could be a tough call. They obviously like his arm enough to be patient with his conversion to pitcher. And he has thrown very well in the second half of the season. But he'll be 29. Dunno.

As far as the rest of that list, Phipps looks like the only other guy that would be a candidate for the 40. I like Campbell and Berry but don't see them on anybody's major-league roster next year. I love Corky, but no need to put him on. I'd like to see Campbell, Costanzo and Skelton back, but again . . .

cinreds21
08-24-2011, 03:18 PM
Yes on Gil, he's Rule V eligible. As for will they protect him or even bring him back? Probably not.

The DARK
08-24-2011, 04:27 PM
I don't see either Volquez or Wood in AAA next season. If they haven't worked out their issues by then, I see them as trade bait, since they lose value with each loss of minor league playing time. Keep in mind that Willis likely won't be back.

I wouldn't assume that Frazier stays promoted next season. He hasn't particularly impressed so far. Even assuming that the Reds don't make any unnecessary offseason signings and let the 1-year contract players go, we're left with this for returning, MLB experienced players:

C-Hanigan
1B-Votto
2B-Phillips (or an outside signing, we don't have any acceptable internal options)
SS-Janish
3B-Rolen
RF-Bruce
CF-Stubbs
LF-Heisey
Util- Cairo (1 year left on contract)

That's 9 spots filled right away, leaving only 3 or 4 open for:

Devin Mesoraco
Zack Cozart
Yonder Alonso
Todd Frazier
Juan Francisco
Dave Sappelt

Having Mesoraco or Hernandez as catcher is essential, so that's a spot filled right there. Cozart is clearly our best internal option at SS (Janish is no everyday starter), so he's there too, leaving only 1 or 2 spots for Alonso, Frazier, Francisco, and Sappelt. With the season's they've all had, and the talent coming up from behind them in AA, somebody has to go.

Also, don't forget Correa. He was suspended for a year, but is still one of our top pitching prospects.

Benihana
08-24-2011, 05:27 PM
I don't see either Volquez or Wood in AAA next season. If they haven't worked out their issues by then, I see them as trade bait, since they lose value with each loss of minor league playing time. Keep in mind that Willis likely won't be back.

I wouldn't assume that Frazier stays promoted next season. He hasn't particularly impressed so far. Even assuming that the Reds don't make any unnecessary offseason signings and let the 1-year contract players go, we're left with this for returning, MLB experienced players:

C-Hanigan
1B-Votto
2B-Phillips (or an outside signing, we don't have any acceptable internal options)
SS-Janish
3B-Rolen
RF-Bruce
CF-Stubbs
LF-Heisey
Util- Cairo (1 year left on contract)

That's 9 spots filled right away, leaving only 3 or 4 open for:

Devin Mesoraco
Zack Cozart
Yonder Alonso
Todd Frazier
Juan Francisco
Dave Sappelt

Having Mesoraco or Hernandez as catcher is essential, so that's a spot filled right there. Cozart is clearly our best internal option at SS (Janish is no everyday starter), so he's there too, leaving only 1 or 2 spots for Alonso, Frazier, Francisco, and Sappelt. With the season's they've all had, and the talent coming up from behind them in AA, somebody has to go.

Also, don't forget Correa. He was suspended for a year, but is still one of our top pitching prospects.

I agree someone has to go- between Alonso, Frazier, Francisco and Sappelt, they need to decide who they want to keep and who they want to trade. I will be very disappointed (but not surprised) if any of these guys are in Louisville next year.

Scrap Irony
08-24-2011, 06:17 PM
Nice work, Beni.

The questions at the major league level-- assuming no blockbusters or even smaller deals-- are Janish, Frazier, Alonso, Sappelt, and Francisco. Only three will be kept, and the others will have to go somewhere. The rotation and bullpen are also set if you assume four of Arroyo, Volquez, Bailey, Leake, Chapman, and Wood end up in the rotation and the other two end up in the pen. (My money, FWIW, is on Chapman-- as closer-- and Wood as the long man.)

That will, IMO, leave Janish as the AAA SS and either Francisco or Frazier in Louisville as well. That only leaves one spot to drop-- and that's probably SS, as Campbell and the loser of the mlb battle as Rolen's caddy can play nice together at 3B, corner IF, corner OF, and DH.

Janish moving down to AAA affects, in turn, DiDi Gregorius. That should be okay, as Gregorius is very young and has only played in AA for 27 games so far. He could use the extra time and not consider it a slap in the face.

The AA team should include Shooter Hunt, who's had a very good and underrated season in Bakersfield, with an 824 OPS. He can play 1B, DH, or corner OF. Either way, he deserves the promotion. With Gregorius demoted to AA, he, Greene, Lohman, and Buchholz will all play middle infield. Or Lohman could be moved down to A+ to play behind Torryes and Hamilton. That's a logjam that will need to be worked out. (Buchholz could be released, as he's not been good enough as a hitter since his first stint in Rookie League.)

Other than that, my only other observation is that both the A+ and Dayton A teams will be stellar. In A+, D'Anna and Lutz will again split DH and 1B. Dayne Read might very well slip into the OF discussion (as he's been splitting time between Billings and Bakersfield), along with Duran and Rodriguez. (Yorman moves up on talent alone.)
Hamilton SS
Torreyes 2B
Vidal 3B
Lutz 1B/ DH
Read RF
D'Anna DH/ 1B
Duran LF
Rodriguez CF
Barnhart C

That's nine offensive prospects who could very well see time at the major league level with at least three of them as possible A-/B+ guys (Hamilton, Torreyes, Vidal) next season.

Add to that another outstanding team in Dayton.
Perez SS
Wright 2B
Smith CF
Buckley 3B
Maddox 1B
O'Shea 1B/ C
Waldrop RF
Silva LF

Add in a DH (Dickinson, I'm guessing), and this group has a chance to be outstanding offensively. They're not too young (as this year's team was at the beginning of the season), and they may develop an absolute ton of power.

batsfan
08-24-2011, 08:11 PM
Looking at this as a bats fan, I am not sure how much there is to look forward to if these scenarios pan out. I hope the Reds sign some good 6-year FAs to help AAA.

Scrap Irony
08-24-2011, 08:29 PM
AAA Louisville should still be really interesting, just not as stacked as they've been over the past three years. I count half of their roster as probable major leaguers with above average mlb starters at four or five spots.

Grandal is going to be a Top 100 prospect next season. Soto probably will as well. Boxberger might also make that list. Phipps will get some love after the season he's put up. Janish has already been a major league starter. The Frazier/ Francisco loser has some luster still. You've also got a 21-year-old in the middle of the diamond who looks for real, as well as another just behind him.

Lots to like there.

Of course, they also need to pitch. And, as of now, there's Boxberger and Maloney and... maybe Thompson? I like Carroll, but that's probably because every time I see him, he pitches well.

dougdirt
08-24-2011, 09:20 PM
I would be really surprised if Soto is a Top 100 prospect. Really surprised.

Scrap Irony
08-24-2011, 11:31 PM
The power and the youth are awfully difficult to ignore. If he hits 35, I think he'll get the love. Though he is a Red prospect.

cinreds21
08-25-2011, 12:42 AM
Didi won't start 2012 in Louisville. Rodriguez, maybe.

dougdirt
08-25-2011, 02:03 AM
The power and the youth are awfully difficult to ignore. If he hits 35, I think he'll get the love. Though he is a Red prospect.

Do you mean after next season or after this season?

batsfan
08-25-2011, 09:52 AM
First off here are the minor league free agents the Reds have:

Cochran
Hamulack
Mobley
Berry
Campbell
Skelton
Phipps
Corky
Avery
Cook
Gil
Gustafson
Lehr
Reinke
Castro
Costanzo
Griffin


Welcome back, and thanks for the info! Shouldn't Dorn be on that list?

cinreds21
08-25-2011, 11:16 AM
Welcome back, and thanks for the info! Shouldn't Dorn be on that list?

Thanks and nope he's not. It's people who were drafted in 2005 and Dorn was drafted in 2006.

camisadelgolf
08-25-2011, 11:40 AM
Thanks and nope he's not. It's people who were drafted in 2005 and Dorn was drafted in 2006.
Is Corky Miller already signed for next year?

cinreds21
08-25-2011, 11:43 AM
Is Corky Miller already signed for next year?

I don't see why he would be?

If he's put on the 40 during September, he technically will be under club control. However, he'd likely get non-tendered or released and resigned like last year.

batsfan
08-25-2011, 02:02 PM
I don't see why he would be?

If he's put on the 40 during September, he technically will be under club control. However, he'd likely get non-tendered or released and resigned like last year.

The Reds would have to be complete idiots not to resign Corky. Mesoraco and Grandal will not both start in AAA, there is no other catcher in the organization ready for AAA, and no free agent could provide the value that Corky has as a "Player/Coach" with the Bats and as a future manager. I can't imagine the Reds not offering Corky a minor league contract in November, and I can't imagine Corky not accepting.

Scrap Irony
08-25-2011, 04:52 PM
Do you mean after next season or after this season?

If Soto goes 275/330/570 with 35 dingers, I think he'll make plenty of lists. Fairly high, too. Top 50 perhaps, as he's young (22), projectable (power plays anywhere), and has a track record (both in youth ball and as a prospect, not to mention 3rd round status).

If he slumps (and he is right now) to 260/315/550, he may still make the bottom of the list because of his power. (A 550 slugging is pretty monstrous.)

dougdirt
08-25-2011, 05:03 PM
If Soto goes 275/330/570 with 35 dingers, I think he'll make plenty of lists. Fairly high, too. Top 50 perhaps, as he's young (22), projectable (power plays anywhere), and has a track record (both in youth ball and as a prospect, not to mention 3rd round status).

If he slumps (and he is right now) to 260/315/550, he may still make the bottom of the list because of his power. (A 550 slugging is pretty monstrous.)

Soto isn't going to hit 8 HR's in the next two weeks. Even if he finishes with 30 HR's, I would be incredibly surprised to see him in a Top 100.

medford
08-25-2011, 05:30 PM
The Reds would have to be complete idiots not to resign Corky. Mesoraco and Grandal will not both start in AAA, there is no other catcher in the organization ready for AAA, and no free agent could provide the value that Corky has as a "Player/Coach" with the Bats and as a future manager. I can't imagine the Reds not offering Corky a minor league contract in November, and I can't imagine Corky not accepting.

I'd think there's 0% chance of Corky not getting a minor league offer similar to this season. Really, the ball is in the court of Corky as to what his future is. Corky knew his role this year was to back up Mes and get him ready for the majors. He knows he'll likely fill a similar role w/ Grandal next season. It wouldn't surprise me if the front office has already told him he's got a spot in AAA and a reserve injury replacement role in the majors the next few years, with a bullpen catcher or coaching staff spot in the organization whenever he hangs 'em up.

I would guess the only way Corky isn't with the Reds next year, is if someone is convinced to give him a major league contract to be a backup catcher, or perhaps someone's personaly catcher (Willis would be the only canadite I could think of, and I doubt he'd have the clout this offseason to insist on having his own personal catcher)

corkedbat
09-06-2011, 02:05 AM
I know several of these will liave a MiL FAs and will be relaced by other organizational filler, but just hoing ny whatwe have now:

Louisville

1B Neftali Soto
2B Cody Puckett
SS Miguel Rojas
3B Eric Campbell
LF Bill Reinhardt
CF Felix Perez
RF Denis Phipps
CA Yasmani Grandal

UT Jack Kahaulelo
IF Jose Castro
IF Mike Costanzo
OF Danny Dorn
OF David Cook
CA Jamie Skelton

Pensacola

1B Chris Richburg
2B Henry Rodriguez
SS DiDi Gregorious
3B Brodie Greene
LF Stephen Hunt
CF Ryan LaMarre
RF Josh Feldhauer
CA Mark Fluery

UT Carlos Mendez
IF Jose Gaudron
IF Frank Pfister
OF Alex Bucholz
OF Andrew Means
CA Kevin Coddington

Bakersfield

1B Donald Lutz
2B Ronald Torreyes
SS Billy Hamilton
3B David Vidal
LF Theo Bowe
CF Dayne Read
RF Juan Duran
CA Tucker Barnhardt

UT Jeffrey Sierra
IF Phillip Bauer
IF Jorge Jiminez
OF Kurt Mueller
OF Drew Poulk
CA Jordan Weideman

Dayton

1B Dominic d'Anna
2B Brandon Dailey
SS Devin Lohman
3B Sean Buckley
LF Jaren Matthews
CF Yorman Rodriguez
RF Kyle Waldrop
CA Danny Vicioso

UT Robert Maddox
IF Adam Muenster
IF Sammy Diaz
OF Josh Garton
OF Juan Silva
CA Chris Berset

Billings

1B Nick O'Shea
2B Ryan Wright
SS Humberto Valor
3B Junior Arias
LF Bryson Smith
CF Brennan May
RF Steve Selsky
CA Yovan Gonzalez

UT Carlos Sanchez
IF Juan Perez
IF Christobal Rodriguez
OF Jon Matthews
OF Spencer Dickerson
CA Julio Marillo

Arizona

1B Yimmy Lopez
2B Taylor Wrenn
SS Oliviel Florentino
3B Robert Ramierez
LF Gabe Rosa
CF Ty Washington
RF Jordanys Perez
CA Wagner Gomez

UT Jozef Terry
IF MiguelMendez
IF Ariel Baez
OF Matt Lentz
OF William Moreno
CA Fray Sosa

corkedbat
09-06-2011, 02:16 AM
nm

cinreds21
09-06-2011, 12:22 PM
A lot of guys you mentioned for Louisville will be free agents so I don't know how exactly it'll turn out. I'll do my prediction soon.

corkedbat
09-06-2011, 03:51 PM
A lot of guys you mentioned for Louisville will be free agents so I don't know how exactly it'll turn out. I'll do my prediction soon.

Yeah, at the very least, just about the entire L'Ville bench probably be. Like I noted in my previous post, if they aren't retained, they will probably be replaced for the most part by minor league free agents from other organizations,

I think this is close to how they will start out, but I think there will be a lot of promotions (especially in the IF spots) fairly early in the year.

batsfan
09-06-2011, 04:06 PM
My first Bats prediction:

Rotation:
One of Wood/Leake/Volquez
Daryl Thompson
Scott Carroll
Clayton Tanner
One of Klinker/Villareal/Free Agent

Bullpen:
Jordan Smith
Nick Christiani
Jeremy Horst
Travis Webb
Carlos Fisher or Jared Burton
Brad Boxberger
FA

Lineup:
C: Yasmani Grandal
1B: Neftali Soto
2B: Chris Valaika or Henry Rodriguez
3B: Juan Francisco or Todd Frazier
SS: Kristopher Negron
LF: Danny Dorn
CF: Dave Sappelt
RF: Denis Phipps
DH: Bill Rhinehart

Bench:
Corky Miller or FA
Quintin Berry or Felix Perez
Miguel Rojas or Cody Puckett

This team will be amazing offensively, and should have a good bullpen, but the rotation needs a FA or two for this to be a contending team. I like what I saw from Tanner on Sunday though.

Scrap Irony
09-06-2011, 04:50 PM
Louisville definitely needs arms-- both starting and especially bullpen-- to compete.

The Bats have to lean on Thompson and Carroll as the erstwhile aces of the staff next season. (I am assuming a deal of some sort or a major league bullpen job will keep Volquezx, Wood, or Leake at the big league level.) Beyond those two, Tanner deserves a shot to see what he is. Were I Cincinnati, I'd search for another Dontrelle Willis type, who once was good and needs another chance. I'm guessing a guy like that becomes a TOR pitcher, meaning you could cobble the fifth starter from flotsam floating around the AAA level or AA hopefuls.

I like Boxberger in the closer role, gaining experience. After that, Fisher is solid (at AAA at least) and Smith should be. Christiani, Horst, and Webb deserve looks, as they did well enough to earn them. Beyond that, there's absolutely nothing. It's a barren wasteland of relief pitching.

The offense will be solid to outstanding. However, I think both Puckett and Rodriguez will be in AAA (assuming Rodriguez's ankle heals well enough to play at full strength before then.) Puckett will slide to LF, with Dorn as the utility guy between OF, DH, and 1B.

The probable lineup, IMO:
Berry CF
Rodriguez 2B
Phipps RF
Soto 1B
Grandal C
Campbell 3B
Dorn DH
Puckett LF
Janish/ Negron SS

Valaika also plays a super utility role but around the infield, with 400+ ABs over the course of the year, assuming health and no movement onto Cincinnati. Campbell needs the challenge, as he's getting older. He's also a free agent, but I'm guessing the year he's had has left a good taste in his mouth about the Cincinnati system, so he stays. (With Francisco and Frazier staying in Cincinnati or being dealt to another team, they'll need him.) Berry takes Sappelt's spot, as Sappelt has nothing left to prove at the AAA level and will be kept as a fourth OF, starting in LF or CF, or dealt as part of a package for a bone fide TOR starter. Berry also needs reps at the highest minor league level, as he's getting older and played well in AA, relatively speaking.

cinreds21
09-06-2011, 07:04 PM
DT is out of options, by the way.

dougdirt
09-06-2011, 07:13 PM
DT is out of options, by the way.

I am not sure the Reds should do this, but I think someone should.... this guy can pitch in the Majors. Someone should have him on their team. There is room on plenty of rosters for an arm like his. Whether its out of the pen or not.

camisadelgolf
09-06-2011, 07:46 PM
Just a guess . . .

Cincinnati Louisville Pensacola Bakersfield Dayton
STARTING LINEUP STARTING LINEUP STARTING LINEUP STARTING LINEUP STARTING LINEUP
2B Brandon Phillips CF Quintin Berry/fa CF Ryan LaMarre SS Billy Hamilton CF Theo Bowe
LF Chris Heisey 2B Chris Valaika 2B Henry Rodriguez 2B Ronald Torreyes 2B Ryan Wright
1B Joey Votto LF Danny Dorn RF Bill Rhinehart CF Yorman Rodriguez 3B Sean Buckley
3B Scott Rolen 1B Neftali Soto 1B Chris Richburg 3B David Vidal 1B Robert Maddox
RF Jay Bruce 3B Todd Frazier DH Stephen Hunt 1B Dominic D'Anna RF Josh Garton
CF Drew Stubbs C Yasmani Grandal C Mark Fleury LF Juan Duran LF Juan Silva
C Devin Mesoraco DH Cody Puckett SS Didi Gregorius DH Donald Lutz DH Jaren Matthews
SS Zack Cozart RF Felix Perez 3B Brodie Greene RF Dayne Read SS Juan Perez
SS Kris Negron LF Josh Fellhauer C Tucker Barnhart C Wagner Gomez

BENCH BENCH BENCH BENCH BENCH
C Ryan Hanigan C Corky Miller/fa C Kevin Coddington C Chris Berset C Danny Vicioso
IF Paul Janish IF Miguel Rojas/fa IF Alex Buchholz OF Drew Poulk OF Kurt Muller
OF Dave Sappelt OF Denis Phipps/fa OF Andrew Means UT Devin Lohman UT Jefry Sierra
UT Yonder Alonso
UT Miguel Cairo

ROTATION ROTATION ROTATION ROTATION ROTATION
SP Johnny Cueto SP Scott Carroll SP J.C. Sulbaran SP Josh Smith SP Robert Stephenson
SP Mike Leake SP Clayton Tanner SP Pedro Villarreal SP Dan Corcino SP Jake Johnson
SP Bronson Arroyo SP Matt Klinker SP Josh Ravin SP Dan Renken SP Tanner Robles
SP Homer Bailey SP Chad Reineke/fa SP Matt Fairel SP Kyle Lotzkar SP Dan Tuttle
SP Edinson Volquez SP Tom Cochran/fa SP Tim Crabbe SP Stalin Gerson SP Tony Cingrani
SP free agent SP Mark Serrano SP Luca Panerati SP Mitch Clarke

BULLPEN BULLPEN BULLPEN BULLPEN BULLPEN
CL Aroldis Chapman CL Brad Boxberger CL free agent CL Drew Hayes CL James Allen
SU Nick Masset SU Jordan Smith SU Clay Shunick SU Dan Wolford SU Brooks Pinckard
SU Logan Ondrusek SU Nick Christiani SU Justin Freeman SU Chad Rogers SU Cole Green
MR Jose Arredondo MR Jerry Gil/fa MR Jordan Hotchkiss MR Brian Pearl MR Justice French
LH Travis Wood LH Jeremy Horst LH Mace Thurman LH Chris Manno LH Chris Joyce
LH Bill Bray LH Donnie Joseph LH free agent LH Blaine Howell LH Matt Leonard
MU Sam LeCure MU Travis Webb MU Curt Partch MU Pat Doyle MU Jamie Walczak

mace
09-06-2011, 08:35 PM
I couldn't begin to quibble with an effort as comprehensive as that.

Quick question, though: So you're figuring on Francisco being out of the organization?

corkedbat
09-06-2011, 08:47 PM
I couldn't begin to quibble with an effort as comprehensive as that.

Quick question, though: So you're figuring on Francisco being out of the organization?

Can't speak for camisdelgolf, but in my projections, I assumed that Alonso, Francisco, Frazier, Sapplet, Mesaraco, Valaika and Negron are either with the big club, included in deals or (in the case of the last two) released or gone as MiL FAs.

cinreds21
09-06-2011, 09:04 PM
Cam's is pretty close. However, Hynick and McCulloch are not free agents so I would assume one, if not both, will factor in somewhere.

camisadelgolf
09-06-2011, 10:11 PM
I couldn't begin to quibble with an effort as comprehensive as that.

Quick question, though: So you're figuring on Francisco being out of the organization?
Yeah, I figured Francisco to be gone. He's out of options next year, but maybe we could see him make the team over Yonder Alonso, making Alonso the everyday third baseman or left fielder in Louisville.

cinreds21
09-06-2011, 10:50 PM
Yeah, I figured Francisco to be gone. He's out of options next year, but maybe we could see him make the team over Yonder Alonso, making Alonso the everyday third baseman or left fielder in Louisville.

Damn, I didn't even realize/think about that. That really does change things. I really think Tampa or Minnesota or SOME AL team would covet him.

RedsManRick
09-06-2011, 10:59 PM
Billy Hamilton in the Cal league is going to be fun.

camisadelgolf
09-06-2011, 11:41 PM
Damn, I didn't even realize/think about that. That really does change things. I really think Tampa or Minnesota or SOME AL team would covet him.
Matt Maloney, Daryl Thompson, and Carlos Fisher will also be out of options next year.

cinreds21
09-06-2011, 11:45 PM
Matt Maloney, Daryl Thompson, and Carlos Fisher will also be out of options next year.

Yea. I knew about Maloney and DT and didn't really think about Fish. I think the first two could be traded for something. It won't be much, but better than nothing.

JaxRed
09-07-2011, 12:54 AM
I'll quibble. Josh Garton is organizational filler. I see Waldrop in Dayton next year.

bowchickawow
09-07-2011, 12:41 PM
Manno will be in AA next year. I can't see them keeping him in high-A because he was so dominant--by far a more dominant pitcher than anyone else there.

texasdave
09-07-2011, 03:10 PM
LHP Chris Manno (26th round-Duke University)

There is a lot more on Manno out there than most of these other guys because he's a Nats redraft (taken in the 38th round last year) with pretty good college numbers.

Here's what NFA re-posted from Baseball America last year: "Junior lefthander Christopher Manno is the Blue Devils’ best prospect and could go anywhere from the fifth to 10th round. Like Wolcott, he works primarily off his fastball. He’s long and lean with deception and some projection left in his body. Manno at times sits at 83-87 mph, though he often throws harder and was 89-91 mph at times in the Cape last summer, when he went 3-0, 1.93 with 45 strikeouts in 42 innings. His changeup can be plus at times, while his slider is below-average. Manno is young for his draft class and doesn’t turn 21 until November."

Seiler (7/7/2009): Manno should have gone much earlier, and he was in consideration for the top ten rounds quite easily as a lefty with good size and great deception. His fastball is below-average, but he couples it with a contrasting changeup that gets a lot of funny swings.

Seiler answered a question on Manno in an "All Questions Answered" thread on 6/11/2010: Q: Thoughts on Duke’s LHP Chris Manno (26th, DC) – did he stuff back up a bit this year? A: Stuff was still down. Below-average velocity and stuff in general.

A nice interview with Manno from before the 2010 season can be found here. Some excerpts:

"It's hard not to root for Duke's senior lefty Chris Manno. He's humble, gives credit to coaches and teammates before himself and plays the game smart. He's both the kind of guy you want on the mound in a crucial game as well as someone you'd trust to date your sister."

"Q: The terms “funky” and “herky jerky” have been used to describe your pitching form. Yet, it's hard to say anything disparaging with the results. Has anyone attempted to tinker with your delivery or endorsed a change in your approach? A: Being herky jerky isn't necessarily a bad thing. You can watch a bunch of major league pitchers who are jerky jerky and funky, but their mechanics are actually good. My mechanics have developed throughout years and they're very sound if you watch them on tape. The way I deliver the ball and the way it comes out are just different. I do everything my coaches tell me to do and they've really, really helped me over the years. I just throw a little different – which is kind of good from what I heard.

Q: You were a late round draft choice of the Washington Nationals in the amateur drafts last spring. Was there much consideration in turning down the Nat's offers to go pro? You could been paid to play and continued your education later. A: Absolutely. That was definitely a consideration. I was honored to be drafted by them. You have to understand that I still have a lot of space for improving at the school I'm at right now. I haven't outgrown my coaches and I still have a lot to learn from them...In regards to me possibly signing it was absolutely an option, it's always been my dream to sign, but it just wasn't the right time. To be very honest I made it quite clear to scouts that it was going to take a significant commitment for me to leave an institution like Duke."

I really like Manno, especially as a 26th rounder. With a quirky delivery, he has a chance of being an effective ML pitcher. In the 26th round, there isn't any risk if he doesn't become one. He's portrayed as a high character guy. And the Nats obviously like him a lot, since they took him two years in a row. An all-around great pick to me.

That was from Fight for old DC website.

This was from the Baseball Draft Report.


31. Duke SR LHP Chris Manno

more at 85-89 now with FB now, but has touched 90-91 in the past; quality mid-70s SL that has been inconsistent of late; plus CU; great command of FB; 6-2, 160 pounds (2.23 FIP; 11.19 K/9; 4.63 BB/9)

Manno's numbers in 2011 were pretty outrageous.

TOTAL: 60.1 IP 26H 6ER 21BB 100K 1HR
Bakersfield: 17.0IP 6H 1ER 6BB 31K 0HR

More of a results guy than a stuff guy. But those numbers are hard to ignore.

bowchickawow
09-07-2011, 04:56 PM
Exactly. Manno's #s in bakersfield were outstanding--and in a hitter's league, beyond outstanding.

mace
09-07-2011, 06:02 PM
He was a Manno among boyso.

texasdave
09-07-2011, 07:37 PM
His arrival from Washington was like Manno from the heavens.

texasdave
09-07-2011, 07:37 PM
He was a Manno among boyso.

:beerme:

texasdave
09-07-2011, 07:38 PM
There's probably a Manno WAR pun to be worked into the conversation but I am opting for dinner.

mace
09-07-2011, 10:42 PM
I hope they never have to jettison him: Manno verboard.

texasdave
09-07-2011, 10:46 PM
I hope they never have to jettison him: Manno verboard.

Manno man that was bad. :)

GOYA
09-08-2011, 09:13 PM
I would think Danny Dorn is not going to be with the Reds org next year. I hope, for his sake, he gets picked up by a team that will give him a chance to see a major league pitch.

corkedbat
09-09-2011, 03:14 AM
I didn't have Gregorious or Rodriguez starting a Louisville as some did. I figure that HRod may start out a little slow because of the injury, but if Did does start out at Louisville, I can see him splitting time with Cozart at SS and backing up 2B by the all-star break.

redsof72
09-15-2011, 12:44 PM
A few thoughts:

I would be shocked if Stephenson starts in Dayton. They started Sulbaran in Dayton and it did not go well. I think they learned something from that. I do not expect to see many guys skipping levels, with the possible exceptions of Josh Smith and Drew Hayes. No way does Yorman start in Bakersfield. No chance.


Dayton in 2012 could look like this:

C: Yovan Gonzalez backed up by Danny Vicioso
1B: Robert Maddox/Nick O'Shea
2B: Ryan Wright
3B: Sean Buckley/Junior Arias
SS: ??? possibilities could be Devin Lohman, Juan Perez, Sammy Diaz
LF: Kyle Waldrop
CF: Jefry Sierra
RF: Yorman Rodriguez
OF: Juan Silva, Bryson Smith, Drew Poulk, Kurtis Muller

Could see someone step forward and challenge such as Spencer Dickinson, Steve Selsky, or Brennan May.

Starting rotation (some combination of...)

Tony Cingrani
Mitch Clarke
Kyle McMyne
Daniel Tuttle
Jacob Johnson (if healthy)
Radhames Quezada
Wes Mugarian (would need a good spring; not a great 2011)
Ismael Guillon (would have to have a great spring)

Bullpen (seven from this group, with the most likely guys at the top)

James Allen
Brooks Pinckard
Erik Miller
Ryan Kemp
Chris Joyce
Nick Fleece
Jim Moran
Alejandro Chacin
El'Hajj Muhammad
Pat Quinn
Dan Jensen
Matt Leonard
Justice French
Carlos Gonzalez
Carlos Contreras
Porfirio Martinez

Then you always have the player that gets bumped back a level due to numbers at the very end of the spring that you did not factor in.

texasdave
09-15-2011, 01:51 PM
How about Jonathan Correa? Is he still in the organization? And where is he going to start out?

redsof72
09-15-2011, 02:22 PM
The player known as Jonathan Correa is on the suspended list. I am not sure that his age has been nailed down. Once they get that, the rest will follow. If it turns out he is considerably older than he represented, you probably won't see him again.

mace
09-15-2011, 03:06 PM
72, do you know anything about what Jacob Johnson's issue is, and how it's progressing? Was it an offseason thing? I don't recall him being shut down last season.

billy bob
09-15-2011, 03:30 PM
I was told Correa is 26.