PDA

View Full Version : JFay on Brandon Phillips



Ron Madden
08-26-2011, 04:54 AM
Interesting article. Any thoughts?

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20110825/SPT04/308240147/Reds-need-pony-up-12M-2012-leadoff-hitter?odyssey=mod|newswell|text|Sports|s

GAC
08-26-2011, 06:21 AM
This is gonna be a long thread. LOL

John Fay simply amazes me, He really does. And he tries to justify that with a very small sample size?


Phillips always has been a free swinger and has the ability to put almost any pitch in play, but leadoff brings out his patient side.

Being a lead off guy is not about "the ability to put almost every pitch in play". And has the lead-off spot really brought out the patient side in Brandon? Doe that "side" even exist at all, regardless where he bats?

Let us refresh your memory Mr Fay because his career numbers at lead off are baaad! Remember last season when it was tried? 72 games (315 ABs), and the results weren't pretty....

.251 BA .302 OB% .394 SLG% .695 OPS (18 BBs in 315 ABs)

And overall career-wise (92 games, 395 ABs) it's not good either....

.263 BA .320 OB% .418 SLG% .738 OPS

P/PA is somewhere around 3.6.

I commend Brandon for his attitude and willingness, but he belongs at lead off about as much as Alonso does in LF IMO.

oneupper
08-26-2011, 06:25 AM
However a W-L of 43-29, with BP leading off. (And frankly the offense has looked better since he is back there).

What's the record with Stubbs leading off?

Maybe it's not BP leading off, but Stubbs NOT leading off.

cumberlandreds
08-26-2011, 08:16 AM
However a W-L of 43-29, with BP leading off. (And frankly the offense has looked better since he is back there).

What's the record with Stubbs leading off?

Maybe it's not BP leading off, but Stubbs NOT leading off.

I think you are right on the money with that. It's more Stubbs not leading off. IMO just about anyone on the team leading off is better than Stubbs. You just can't have someone in the lead off slot that K's 150 times. The offense has been better with Phillips. He's not the typical lead off hitter but he can suffice until the perfect lead off hitter arrives in Cincy.

PuffyPig
08-26-2011, 08:26 AM
I think when Phlilips batted leadoff last year was when Rolen was hitting clean up and slugging well. That's likely when we were winning.

signalhome
08-26-2011, 09:40 AM
A guy with an OBP that will hover around .330 and actually hurts his team with stolen base attempts (Phillips is a horrendous basestealer these days, sitting at a 56% SB% the last two years and 53% this year) isn't exactly the ideal leadoff hitter. I'm not saying Phillips is a bad hitter -- a .332 wOBA and 105 wRC+ for a 2B is definitely valuable -- but he isn't suited for leadoff or cleanup, where, oddly enough, he has been slotted for the vast majority of his at-bats the last three years. He's probably better suited to hit sixth or seventh.

Lineup construction is vastly overrated, but even so, it still does hold some marginal value; I believe The Book came to the conclusion that proper lineup construction could amount to something like two wins over the course of a season. I'm not at home to check so I could be off on that, but even if the proper lineup construction would only amount to two wins, that's two wins that could potentially put a team into the postseason instead of sitting at home in October, so I think it's something that should be addressed.

Scrap Irony
08-26-2011, 09:59 AM
This is a team with one true #3 hitter and seven 6-7 place hitters.

Shrug. It seems to get the job done, as the Reds currently lead the league in runs scored for the second year in a row.

Phillips at leadoff? Whatever. Stubbs at leadoff? Who cares?

Put the hot guy in the spot and lead on, MacDuff.

klw
08-26-2011, 10:18 AM
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/split/109/league/nl/sort/pitchesPerPlateAppearance/count/81/qualified/false/type/expanded
P/PA as #1 hitter
Stubbs 3.95
Heisey 3.82
Lewis 3.78
Sappelt 3.34
Phillips 3.33

Stubbs has 120+ more plate appearances than anyone ahead of him in P/Pa as leadoff hitter in the NL, for what that is worth.

Phillips
as #1 hitter 3.33 p/pa
as #2 hitter 3.82 p/pa http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/split/110/league/nl/sort/pitchesPerPlateAppearance/count/81/qualified/false/type/expanded
as #4 hitter 3.55 p/pa http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/split/110/league/nl/sort/pitchesPerPlateAppearance/count/81/qualified/false/type/expanded

Based on the above #'s Brandon is actually less patient as a leadoff hitter but more effective. Jess sayin'

Ron Madden
08-26-2011, 12:32 PM
This is gonna be a long thread. LOL

John Fay simply amazes me, He really does. And he tries to justify that with a very small sample size?



Being a lead off guy is not about "the ability to put almost every pitch in play". And has the lead-off spot really brought out the patient side in Brandon? Doe that "side" even exist at all, regardless where he bats?

Let us refresh your memory Mr Fay because his career numbers at lead off are baaad! Remember last season when it was tried? 72 games (315 ABs), and the results weren't pretty....

.251 BA .302 OB% .394 SLG% .695 OPS (18 BBs in 315 ABs)

And overall career-wise (92 games, 395 ABs) it's not good either....

.263 BA .320 OB% .418 SLG% .738 OPS

P/PA is somewhere around 3.6.

I commend Brandon for his attitude and willingness, but he belongs at lead off about as much as Alonso does in LF IMO.

I thought some of Brandon's comments had a few wholes in them too, if they were posted by a member of RedsZone they would soon be challenged and shot down by other RedsZone members.

bucksfan2
08-26-2011, 01:14 PM
I always find it funny that when a player begins to talk about what he tries to do or what he is thinking there is a lot of backlash towards them. The Reds don't have an idea leadoff hitter on the roster. Heck how far down in the minors do you have to go before you find a prototypical leadoff hitter?

But since they don't have a prototypical leadoff hitter on the current roster you have to put your players in the best position to succeed. I don't think leadoff helps Stubbs out. I don't think he is successful being patient and would be more successful as a hitter being aggressive in the zone. With him hitting lower in the order it allows him to focus more on that and less on seeing many pitches.


“I try to work the count. That’s what the leadoff man is supposed to do – see pitches, especially leading the game off. You try to get on base any way you can for the other guys. You don’t want to try to do too much – basically get on base. Then, when there are runners in scoring position, go up and try to put a good swing on it and drive them in.”

As for Brandon I find no issue with this comment. I also think a more patient Phillips is a good thing. I like it when BP lets the game come to him instead of trying to hit a grand slam with no one on base.

Ron Madden
08-26-2011, 01:30 PM
I always find it funny that when a player begins to talk about what he tries to do or what he is thinking there is a lot of backlash towards them. The Reds don't have an idea leadoff hitter on the roster. Heck how far down in the minors do you have to go before you find a prototypical leadoff hitter?

But since they don't have a prototypical leadoff hitter on the current roster you have to put your players in the best position to succeed. I don't think leadoff helps Stubbs out. I don't think he is successful being patient and would be more successful as a hitter being aggressive in the zone. With him hitting lower in the order it allows him to focus more on that and less on seeing many pitches.



As for Brandon I find no issue with this comment. I also think a more patient Phillips is a good thing. I like it when BP lets the game come to him instead of trying to hit a grand slam with no one on base.

I haven't seen a lot of backlash towards Brandon.

kaldaniels
08-26-2011, 01:31 PM
I always find it funny that when a player begins to talk about what he tries to do or what he is thinking there is a lot of backlash towards them. The Reds don't have an idea leadoff hitter on the roster. Heck how far down in the minors do you have to go before you find a prototypical leadoff hitter?

But since they don't have a prototypical leadoff hitter on the current roster you have to put your players in the best position to succeed. I don't think leadoff helps Stubbs out. I don't think he is successful being patient and would be more successful as a hitter being aggressive in the zone. With him hitting lower in the order it allows him to focus more on that and less on seeing many pitches.



As for Brandon I find no issue with this comment. I also think a more patient Phillips is a good thing. I like it when BP lets the game come to him instead of trying to hit a grand slam with no one on base.

Knowing Brandon's gamesmanship, he is hoping other teams see this/notice his approach, and they'll try to sneak first pitch meatballs by him. He'll be hacking at the first pitch in a week or so. :D

klw
08-26-2011, 01:55 PM
As for Brandon I find no issue with this comment. I also think a more patient Phillips is a good thing. I like it when BP lets the game come to him instead of trying to hit a grand slam with no one on base.

I think the comment is great though the stats I posted above don't show that this patience is occurring. What could account for this discrepancy is the instances in which Phillips comes up in the 1 spot in the lineup but as the 4th or 5th guy in inning. While the lineup sheet says he is the leadoff guy he reverts back to the drive 'em in mentality. As the sample size for him is still same this year it could be skewing it and I don't have the time to go at bat by at-bat to check to see how he is when he is the #1 hitter and actually leading off the inning.