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cumberlandreds
08-26-2011, 10:10 AM
Anyone else in the path of Irene? I'm in the DC area and looks like we are in the path of this huge storm. I linked the article with all the preparations going on in the DC area. I'm sure we will lose power for a while this weekend. I just hope I don't have any damage to my home. Earthquake first this week, now a hurricane. A blizzard must not be far behind? ;)


http://www.wtop.com/?nid=41&sid=2513728 (http://www.wtop.com/?nid=41&sid=2513728)

GoReds
08-26-2011, 10:21 AM
About 20 miles south of Fredericksburg not far from Lake Anna. I'm not making too many preparations other than making sure we have enough water and fresh batteries for the flashlights.

Other than a few stray tree limbs down, I don't think we are expecting much.

'cept maybe an aftershock or two...

RBA
08-26-2011, 10:53 AM
Keep safe. Anyone in the direct path of when it is a CAT 3 or above, get out.

oneupper
08-26-2011, 11:02 AM
As a Fl resident for 8 years, a few quick tips.

1. The NOAA tries to keep their projected tracks "conservative", as in "worst case scenario".

2. CAT 1 or 2 are ok to ride out, unless you are right on the coast. Of course, if they say "evacuate" its best to do so (unless they are ridiculous, like with Houston and Hurricane RITA). The safest place in the house, if you don't have a basement, is usually a bathroom.

3. It's not a bad idea to leave if you think power will be down for an extended period. Or even if you just want to drive up to the mountains for the weekend. If your roof blows off, you're not going to "save the furniture" by being there. Being without power can be worse the the storm itself, which usually passes over in a few hours.

4.As for IRENE, keep in mind the worst part of the storm tends to be the Northeast quadrant, which in this case will be over the sea most of the time.

5. Good luck, everyone.

cumberlandreds
08-26-2011, 12:02 PM
About 20 miles south of Fredericksburg not far from Lake Anna. I'm not making too many preparations other than making sure we have enough water and fresh batteries for the flashlights.

Other than a few stray tree limbs down, I don't think we are expecting much.

'cept maybe an aftershock or two...

I live in Loudoun County. So I will be west of the storm. I am hoping that will keep me out of the worst of it.

Also some MLB games have been postponed for Sunday. The Orioles and Phillies have postponed games and will play doubleheaders tomorrow just before the storm arrives.

RichRed
08-26-2011, 05:03 PM
I'm in Va. Beach, couple blocks from the Chesapeake Bay. Could get dicey here, to say the least. Wife and I will probably go to my mom's house tomorrow. She's also in Va. Beach, but further from the water, and with fewer roof-threatening trees.

The specific geography of our coastline usually - USUALLY - dictates that storms veer out and don't hit our area directly, but you never know. Even without a direct hit, there will be flooding and power outages.

This guy has been uncannily accurate with storm forecasts in the past:

http://www.wxrisk.com/

Stay safe, folks!

JaxRed
08-26-2011, 05:09 PM
I lived in Hampton Roads for 12 years. Seems strange given the situation that this guy hasn't updated for 24 hours. That's a lifetime in the life of a hurricane

RichRed
08-26-2011, 05:13 PM
I lived in Hampton Roads for 12 years. Seems strange given the situation that this guy hasn't updated for 24 hours. That's a lifetime in the life of a hurricane

He's due to post again sometime after 4 PM, so any minute perhaps.

oneupper
08-26-2011, 06:13 PM
Latest track is putting this thing on a collision course with NC. Virginia should not be so bad. It will probably be down to storm by the time it hits NJ and NY.
I'm seeing that they are going to evacuate parts of NYC. I think that's overreacting.

RichRed
08-26-2011, 06:39 PM
Looks like it will be a Cat 1 by the time it gets here, but that's still 85 mph winds with heavy rain. Isabel in '03 was a Cat 1 when it hit us but did plenty of damage.

Brutus
08-26-2011, 07:05 PM
The impacts are being somewhat exaggerated by the media for this 'cane, though as with any hurricane, coastal and inland flooding is a huge concern. The wind field is large, but the hurricane is down to a Cat 2 storm, and the stronger winds are on the Eastern eye wall, which will only impact the outer banks (as of now).

The only concern I do have is the possibility of severe storm surge because of piling up of water in the Chesapeake Bay and New York Harbor. That's the one aspect that could be a huge issue. Lower Manhattan could be underwater depending on where the storm comes ashore after resurfacing in the Atlantic, and whether or not it makes landfall around high-tide.

RBA
08-26-2011, 07:11 PM
NY is going shutdown their subway system. I hope they re-evaluate that.

Raisor
08-26-2011, 07:51 PM
This will be my first hurricane as a claims adjuster. I'm an inside adjuster so I won't have to jump roofs for this thing.

HeatherC1212
08-26-2011, 10:42 PM
It seems like they evacuated people living in lower lying areas because they're worried about excessive flooding. After watching everything that happened with Katrina and the flooding there, I have no problem with TPTB in NY being safe and asking people to leave the low lying areas. :eek:

Stay safe everyone who's in the path!

bigredmechanism
08-26-2011, 11:46 PM
NY is going shutdown their subway system. I hope they re-evaluate that.

From what I hear, a lot of subway tracks will be flooded.

Gainesville Red
08-27-2011, 12:09 AM
My little corner of Brooklyn is right on the edge of one of the evacuation zones. I don't think it's going to be a huge deal, but we're going to go stay with friends for a couple of days. Old school sleepover party. We're well stocked with water, food and alcohol so it's on.

I'll try to update as much as I can but I assume the Internet and cel service will be down so we'll see. This storms about to ruin my fantasy football season before it starts.

Good luck to everyone else in harms way.

Could have sworn I was done with this when we moved out of Florida. And an earthquake in the same week. What are the odds of that?

oneupper
08-27-2011, 07:20 AM
Irene down to CAT 1 already. Probably won't be more than a depression when it hits NYC.

RBA
08-27-2011, 10:07 AM
Irene down to CAT 1 already. Probably won't be more than a depression when it hits NYC.

Some Tornadoes are being spun off. So it still can be scary.

oneupper
08-27-2011, 10:24 AM
Fortunately, Irene is going to be a bust as far as hurricanes go. Beach erosion, some bridges out but not major damage.
The evacuation of NYC was totally unwarranted and typical CYA politics.
Fortunately, they didn't go all-Houston, like with RITA where more people died in the evacuation.

Media has over-hyped this one.

RichRed
08-27-2011, 11:33 AM
Some Tornadoes are being spun off. So it still can be scary.

Several of them spotted not too far from us here. Definitely unnerving.

Irene might be heading a little more NNW, which isn't good news for Va. Beach. It's a massive storm, just a good thing the intensity has diminished.

The good news is that Famous Uncle Al's (surely you've heard of him) hot dog place is open for business today. Crazy old coot.

Sea Ray
08-27-2011, 11:35 AM
Fortunately, Irene is going to be a bust as far as hurricanes go. Beach erosion, some bridges out but not major damage.
The evacuation of NYC was totally unwarranted and typical CYA politics.
Fortunately, they didn't go all-Houston, like with RITA where more people died in the evacuation.

Media has over-hyped this one.

I agree. East coast stuff is always overhyped. They're still predicting a CAT 1 to hit NY. I have no formal weather training but "my models" say it'll no longer be a hurricaine by then

Sea Ray
08-27-2011, 11:37 AM
Several of them spotted not too far from us here. Definitely unnerving.

Irene might be heading a little more NNW, which isn't good news for Va. Beach. It's a massive storm, just a good thing the intensity has diminished.

The good news is that Famous Uncle Al's (surely you've heard of him) hot dog place is open for business today. Crazy old coot.

How's it lookin' where you are? Do you have power? I have relatives in Chesapeake and I'm wondering what's up

Brutus
08-27-2011, 12:01 PM
Fortunately, Irene is going to be a bust as far as hurricanes go. Beach erosion, some bridges out but not major damage.
The evacuation of NYC was totally unwarranted and typical CYA politics.
Fortunately, they didn't go all-Houston, like with RITA where more people died in the evacuation.

Media has over-hyped this one.

It has been overhyped from the start.

One thing to keep in mind though is that the storm surge for this one will still be higher than most Cat 1's. Because of the angle the hurricane is coming from and the swath of tropical storm-force winds, New York Harbor could still see a pretty big storm surge. That's really been the only large concern that I've seen. Otherwise, it's going to be mostly a dud.

RichRed
08-27-2011, 12:20 PM
How's it lookin' where you are? Do you have power? I have relatives in Chesapeake and I'm wondering what's up

Raining hard, winds gusting to around 50-60, and the worst isn't supposed to hit for another 8 hours. Still have power for now. Tornado warnings all over the area.

And this one might be a "dud" for NY but it's still going to cause plenty of damage in these parts.

oneupper
08-27-2011, 01:05 PM
How we doing Rich? The Weather Channel has a guy in Va Beach and he was getting rocked around for a while.

Slyder
08-27-2011, 02:27 PM
Fortunately, Irene is going to be a bust as far as hurricanes go. Beach erosion, some bridges out but not major damage.
The evacuation of NYC was totally unwarranted and typical CYA politics.
Fortunately, they didn't go all-Houston, like with RITA where more people died in the evacuation.

Media has over-hyped this one.

Is it better to be overly cautious or not cautious enough and a bunch of people stayed put and Irene became that Cat 4 the computers predicted, with a larger death toll because people didn't get out of the way?

RichRed
08-27-2011, 03:16 PM
How we doing Rich? The Weather Channel has a guy in Va Beach and he was getting rocked around for a while.

Not much change where we are. The guy at wxrisk.com has the eye coming right over Va. Beach in a few hours, a little west of what the NHC shows. Looking at some pretty serious storm surge. We still have power for the time being.

Sea Ray
08-27-2011, 06:39 PM
Not much change where we are. The guy at wxrisk.com has the eye coming right over Va. Beach in a few hours, a little west of what the NHC shows. Looking at some pretty serious storm surge. We still have power for the time being.

Thanks for the update. How much rain has fallen in your area? Do you think this is fun, exciting or would you just as soon not have to deal with it? I think it'd be fun.

Keep us posted and take care

RichRed
08-27-2011, 07:58 PM
Thanks for the update. How much rain has fallen in your area? Do you think this is fun, exciting or would you just as soon not have to deal with it? I think it'd be fun.

Keep us posted and take care

There is an element of fun and excitement; the main thing I worry about is falling trees. A young boy was killed in Newport News when a large tree crashed through his mother's apartment. Very sad.

Rainfall varies but we've probably had 3-4" so far. Winds gusting to over 70. Richmond and parts of central VA have been hit very hard too. Still clinging to power for now, but it should be pretty rough out there for several hours yet. Time for dinner and a beer!

Strikes Out Looking
08-27-2011, 11:10 PM
I'm in Montgomery County, MD -- just west of DC. We've been lucky so far -- just a lot of rain since noon and winds are now gusting to about 30-40 mph. It is much worse to the east of us, Lewes Delaware (on the coast, just south of NJ) had tornados that wiped out 15 structures.

They eye is back over the ocean, so NY is going to get a hurricane -- I think they are going to get the worst of it.

Good luck to all of you in its direct path.

bigredmechanism
08-27-2011, 11:30 PM
Judging by the radar projections, it should be going crazy here in central jersey around 2 or 3 AM. I kind of want to stay up for it, but I realistically see myself passing out well before that.

Gainesville Red
08-28-2011, 12:42 PM
No big deal for Brooklyn. Couple trees down, windy and rainy overnight. We've already returned home.

SunDeck
08-28-2011, 12:56 PM
Judging by the radar projections, it should be going crazy here in central jersey around 2 or 3 AM. I kind of want to stay up for it, but I realistically see myself passing out well before that.

Hurricane Fran hit Raleigh in 1996, waking me at about 1am and I am still awe struck by the experience. It seemed like every time I thought it couldn't get louder, the sound ticked up a notch. But what I remember most is the sound of transformers exploding all over the neighborhood for about an hour until all the power was out.

Best wishes to all who are or were in Irene's path.

Redsfaithful
08-28-2011, 11:33 PM
http://twitter.com/#!/fivethirtyeight/status/107946531306487808


Per my research, which I'll be writing up later, Irene received only the 13th most media coverage among Atlantic hurricanes since 1980.

From Nate Silver of 538.

RichRed
08-29-2011, 10:05 AM
We lost power around 8:45 Sat. night, and it was back on by 3:00 PM Sunday. Only minor debris in our neighborhood. Parts of central VA were actually hit harder than we were. Just the luck of the draw.

cumberlandreds
08-29-2011, 10:16 AM
Just a good hard rainstorm for us in Northern Virginia. Wind was not excessive and we never lost power. We were fortunate in that respect. Yesterday turned out to be a beautiful day with an oceanlike breeze all day. I was even able to get out and mow my yard late in the afternoon.

blumj
08-29-2011, 10:58 AM
It sounds like Vermont and Connecticut got the worst of it, rivers flooding did a lot of the damage.

Brutus
08-29-2011, 11:12 AM
Is it better to be overly cautious or not cautious enough and a bunch of people stayed put and Irene became that Cat 4 the computers predicted, with a larger death toll because people didn't get out of the way?

The problem is that there's a fine line between being overly-cautious and sensationalism. The coverage of Irene was more of the latter than the former.

While being cautious is undoubtedly a good thing, crossing this fine line can impede future warning efforts. It's like the parable of the boy who cried wolf. If a hurricane is overhyped too much, then people see how much it doesn't live up to its hype, the real one might come along one day and people won't listen to the warnings because of all the others that were sensationalized.

oneupper
08-29-2011, 12:33 PM
We lost power around 8:45 Sat. night, and it was back on by 3:00 PM Sunday. Only minor debris in our neighborhood. Parts of central VA were actually hit harder than we were. Just the luck of the draw.

Losing power is the usually the worst thing about these storms, unless you are terribly unlucky.

What I like to do when one is coming is to book a hotel room somewhere, like Orlando. If the storm comes, shutter up and flee. If not, cancel reservation. You can outrun a hurricane.

oneupper
08-29-2011, 12:36 PM
The problem is that there's a fine line between being overly-cautious and sensationalism. The coverage of Irene was more of the latter than the former.

While being cautious is undoubtedly a good thing, crossing this fine line can impede future warning efforts. It's like the parable of the boy who cried wolf. If a hurricane is overhyped too much, then people see how much it doesn't live up to its hype, the real one might come along one day and people won't listen to the warnings because of all the others that were sensationalized.

Evacuation is not a riskless proposition, especially when dealing with the sick and elderly.
Sure, its no problem getting an able-bodied person out of Brooklyn. An ICU patient is a different thing altogether.
Erring too far on the side of caution can be that...an error.

Hoosier Red
08-29-2011, 03:10 PM
Evacuation is not a riskless proposition, especially when dealing with the sick and elderly.
Sure, its no problem getting an able-bodied person out of Brooklyn. An ICU patient is a different thing altogether.
Erring too far on the side of caution can be that...an error.

But isn't that taken care of with proper planning? The positive thing about hurricanes is that you can see them coming for a few days out and can get resources for those who will have difficulties moving out. It also allows medical resources like hospitals prepared so that people who can't move out are also safe.

Irene seemed like it was almost a week in the making, so when they decided to evacuate, they should have had everything lined up.

SandyD
08-30-2011, 09:09 AM
Actually, everyone and every business should have a plan for disasters of all kinds.

I don't think calling for the evacuation of lower Manhattan was out of line. Most people could just go stay with friends who don't live in evacuation zones. I think medical facilities in these areas should have vertical evacuation plans and strong back up power options.

westofyou
08-30-2011, 05:32 PM
Vermont and upstate NY beg to differ on the assumpition that this was overhyped

oneupper
08-30-2011, 06:23 PM
Vermont and upstate NY beg to differ on the assumpition that this was overhyped

The flooding is always overlooked. The wind aspect is what gets the media attention and coastal areas get the monitoring.
These darn things can pack tons of water and are looking to drop it somewhere.

edabbs44
08-31-2011, 10:33 PM
Vermont and upstate NY beg to differ on the assumpition that this was overhyped

Plenty of places in Jersey as well