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View Full Version : Do you think Chapman will become the closer in 2012?



icehole3
08-31-2011, 04:35 AM
Do you also think Dusty will lobby for him to become the closer in 2012? Do you think once he becomes closer you can forget about him becoming a starting pitcher? I think Dusty will push for it and his chances of starting will pretty much be over. :)

mth123
08-31-2011, 04:46 AM
I think he'll be the closer.

icehole3
08-31-2011, 05:32 AM
I wish they would give him at least a couple of trial runs in September but I wont hold my breath

cumberlandreds
08-31-2011, 07:15 AM
I hope he's not. I would like to see the Reds give a real good opportunity to be a starter. But it would not surprise me in the least if he closes next season and is never really given any chance to start. That just seems to be the way the Reds roll.

HokieRed
08-31-2011, 08:06 AM
First team priority, IMHO, should be to stretch him out and try him as a starter. Unfortunately this seems not to be in the plans. I'm beginning to think the Reds are happy to be pretty mediocre.

tommycash
08-31-2011, 08:26 AM
I know that with the money we are paying him, and the hype he brings, it is my opinion that he must either be a starter or the closer next year. It makes no sense to me at this time why we would keep him as middle reliever. I would like to see him close, but if he is a starter next year, I would be happy as well.

lollipopcurve
08-31-2011, 09:02 AM
I don't think his arm bounces back well enough to close. judging from how they've used him.

I think they try to convert him to a starter next year.

Chip R
08-31-2011, 09:12 AM
Yes.

Roy Tucker
08-31-2011, 09:17 AM
Seeing how the Reds run the team, I'd say yes. And it will turn out to be highly controversial because of his bouts of wildness. Torches and pitchforks will ensue.

I think making him a starter is the smarter thing to do but I'm starting to think the Reds don't do smart things. Personnel handling on of the 2011 Reds has been disjointed and generally goofball and I'm afraid that will continue.

dfs
08-31-2011, 10:09 AM
I don't think there is any doubt that he will be closing next year.

Big surprise if he doesn't.

RANDY IN INDY
08-31-2011, 10:15 AM
Yes

Slyder
08-31-2011, 10:20 AM
His value is so much greater if they at least try him as a starter then if he can't hack it THEN make him a closer. Like the Dodgers did with Eric Gagne, like the Cubs did with Kerry Wood (granted injuries rather than effectiveness), like the A's did with Eckersly (age), so on and so forth. There is no excuse (IMO) to not at least give him a chance to start.

Will he start or has he been Papelbon'd we shall see but with his potential it is a waste of very valuable resources leaving him in the pen but I've been saying that since the 2010 offseason began.

Bumstead
08-31-2011, 10:56 AM
The Reds hold an option on Cordero for 2012. What makes any of you think the Reds won't pick up that option?

Chapman should be stretched out and spend at least part of next season in AAA getting ready to be moved into the rotation. Why pay a guy with all that talent that much money to pitch 60 innings a year?

Bum

Homer Bailey
08-31-2011, 11:02 AM
My predictions:

No way the Reds pick up the option on Cordero. That would be insane.

Chapman will be starting in 2012.

Bumstead
08-31-2011, 11:11 AM
My predictions:

No way the Reds pick up the option on Cordero. That would be insane.

Chapman will be starting in 2012.

Bronson Arroyo. I rest my case.

tommycash
08-31-2011, 11:14 AM
The Reds hold an option on Cordero for 2012. What makes any of you think the Reds won't pick up that option?

Chapman should be stretched out and spend at least part of next season in AAA getting ready to be moved into the rotation. Why pay a guy with all that talent that much money to pitch 60 innings a year?

Bum

1. They do not need to pay Cordero 12 million dollars again next year. We have Chapman as a closing option, or we could just buy out Cordero's option and negotiate a new contract for much less money. He is 36 and counting, and there is no way in my mind he will command the same amount of money anywhere else.

2. Chapman will make 2 million dollars next year, and if they make him a closer he might pitch around 60 innings. If they pay Cordero 12 million to close and pitch more or less 60 innings, why not Chapman for 2 million. Chapman is a very viable option to close.

RedsManRick
08-31-2011, 12:19 PM
I think he will be. I hope he's not.

Bumstead
08-31-2011, 12:21 PM
1. They do not need to pay Cordero 12 million dollars again next year. We have Chapman as a closing option, or we could just buy out Cordero's option and negotiate a new contract for much less money. He is 36 and counting, and there is no way in my mind he will command the same amount of money anywhere else.

2. Chapman will make 2 million dollars next year, and if they make him a closer he might pitch around 60 innings. If they pay Cordero 12 million to close and pitch more or less 60 innings, why not Chapman for 2 million. Chapman is a very viable option to close.

Because Chapman is 23 years old with a ton of potential that shouldn't be wasted on pitching 60 innings a year. He has a Randy Johnson type ceiling; why would the Reds waste that at the closer slot?

I'm not arguing the merits of picking up Cordero's option but I imagine that they will do so.

Bum

Homer Bailey
08-31-2011, 12:34 PM
Bronson Arroyo. I rest my case.

All the more reason they won't pick up the option.

Homer Bailey
08-31-2011, 12:35 PM
Because Chapman is 23 years old with a ton of potential that shouldn't be wasted on pitching 60 innings a year. He has a Randy Johnson type ceiling; why would the Reds waste that at the closer slot?

I'm not arguing the merits of picking up Cordero's option but I imagine that they will do so.

Bum

Why in the world would they pick up the option? If they wanted him back, they could easily buy him out, and offer him a lesser deal. No one is going to pay him anywhere close to $12M.

Bumstead
08-31-2011, 12:37 PM
Why in the world would they pick up the option? If they wanted him back, they could easily buy him out, and offer him a lesser deal. No one is going to pay him anywhere close to $12M.

No one was going to pay Arroyo either. I don't disagree with you that they shouldn't pick it up, I just imagine that they will. If Dusty is still around, I think it is almost a guarantee that they pick it up.

Bum

Homer Bailey
08-31-2011, 12:45 PM
No one was going to pay Arroyo either. I don't disagree with you that they shouldn't pick it up, I just imagine that they will. If Dusty is still around, I think it is almost a guarantee that they pick it up.

Bum

No one was going to sign Arroyo?!? Back to back years of sub 4.00 ERA, six straight years of 200+ IP, never missed a start in his career, and no one was going to sign him??? Not even close to a comparable situation with Cordero. Cordero is 36, and will be 37 next year. I can't fathom a situation in which they pick up the option. Would be a completely laughable move.

Bumstead
08-31-2011, 12:49 PM
No one was going to sign Arroyo?!? Back to back years of sub 4.00 ERA, six straight years of 200+ IP, never missed a start in his career, and no one was going to sign him??? Not even close to a comparable situation with Cordero. Cordero is 36, and will be 37 next year. I can't fathom a situation in which they pick up the option. Would be a completely laughable move.

Nobody would have signed him for $12.5M...plus the option is 1 year on Cordero. They certainly aren't going to pick up his option and sign him to an extension like they did Arroyo. Prepare to laugh...

Homer Bailey
08-31-2011, 12:52 PM
Nobody would have signed him for $12.5M...plus the option is 1 year on Cordero. They certainly aren't going to pick up his option and sign him to an extension like they did Arroyo. Prepare to laugh...

Arroyo was resigned to an extension, with a significant amount of the money deferred, and only a portion being accounted for in the 2011 payroll. Not a good signing, but not a comparable situation to picking up a one year option for $12M on Cordero. It's beyond crazy.

Bumstead
08-31-2011, 01:04 PM
Arroyo was resigned to an extension, with a significant amount of the money deferred, and only a portion being accounted for in the 2011 payroll. Not a good signing, but not a comparable situation to picking up a one year option for $12M on Cordero. It's beyond crazy.

Still, no other team in MLB was going to give Arroyo that much money regardless of whether it's deferred or not.

OK...I still believe they will pick up the option. Obviously you don't. Probably best to move as I don't really disagree with your opinion of why they shouldn't pick it up but I do believe they will.

More importantly, I think the Reds would be nuts to make Chapman their closer without making a serious attempt at making him a starter.

Bum

Rojo
08-31-2011, 01:22 PM
I don't think they pick up the option but Walt's used to having money.

A great closers is not a "waste". And if CoCo's option isn't picked up and Champman isn't the closer, that means we're dipping into the free agent market closer market. Good year for it.

Anything wrong with Broxton? His big stats and peripherals are terrible. But it's a been a rough year in LA. He's 27 and lost the closing role.

TeamBoone
08-31-2011, 07:43 PM
I know one thing. I'm sick to death of hearing the announcers extol the virtues of Cordero's record. Over and over... "the numbers don't lie". Oh but they do! So many of his saves have been because his team has saved him! Funny how those things don't show up in the "numbers don't lie". You'd think those guys hadn't watched him all season.

Regarding Chapman as closer, I really hope they don't do that. He's just not consistent enough.

Rojo
08-31-2011, 07:46 PM
nm

Rojo
08-31-2011, 07:50 PM
Regarding Chapman as closer, I really hope they don't do that. He's just not consistent enough.

That's a valid reason. "Wasting" him in the closer role because he might be Randy Johnson is not. (Even Randy Johnson wasn't Randy Johnson until he was 29.)

Patrick Bateman
08-31-2011, 08:21 PM
I except that they will make the right decision.

The lack of success with the starters this season makes the deficiency so obvious that they just can't ignore the potential help Chappy could bring.

kaldaniels
08-31-2011, 11:28 PM
Arredondo is a dark horse for the closer slot.

RedsManRick
09-01-2011, 12:33 AM
Arredondo is a dark horse for the closer slot.

Volquez is mine.

gilpdawg
09-01-2011, 04:41 AM
Volquez is mine.
That's interesting....with that Bugs Bunny changeup when everybody is expecting gas that could be scary, or it could be Ryan Franklin-esque.

As long as it's not Masset.

mth123
09-01-2011, 06:48 AM
Volquez is mine.

For me, Volquez is a lottery ticket. I don't give it away until the numbers are revealed (but would be happy to deal it for a decent return), but I don't spend the money before I know I have a winner. I hope the Reds go with a closer who has more certainty. I certainly don't move forward on an assumption that Volquez can do it or even pitch on back to back days. Its not as easy as everyone wants to make it seem. Some guys just can't do it. IMO, Homer Bailey, for example, would have a problem pitching on consecutive days. Don't count on Volquez for anything. In 2011, the Reds spent the Volquez lottery winnngs (by counting on him as the "Ace") before they knew the winning numbers and it was a large part of the season going south.

I think Chapman might be the "best" choice considering cost and other priorities (I don't think he'll be much help in the rotation w/o a full season in AAA starting, so moving him now will just waste him IMO), but I hope the Reds have more than one guy that they can and are willing to use in the 9th. We really don't know if Chapman can pitch frequently enough to be a sole closer on a good team that may need him 3 or 4 nights in a row. If he is, the other guys make a deep pen, but if he's not, the Reds could undermine the season without some other alternatives.

Bumstead
09-01-2011, 09:41 AM
That's a valid reason. "Wasting" him in the closer role because he might be Randy Johnson is not. (Even Randy Johnson wasn't Randy Johnson until he was 29.)

Funny. So Chapman at 23 years of age with the CEILING of Randy freakin' Johnson should be wasted as a closer? And because Randy Johnson took till he was 29 to become someone you liked then Chapman will take that long? Hopefully the Reds aren't quite so short-sighted with such a great talent! Oh, and by the way, Randy Johnson pitched 220 innings with a 3.65 ERA at age 26; that might be OK compared to what we are running out there, don't you think?

Bum

Rojo
09-01-2011, 01:19 PM
Funny. So Chapman at 23 years of age with the CEILING of Randy freakin' Johnson should be wasted as a closer? And because Randy Johnson took till he was 29 to become someone you liked then Chapman will take that long? Hopefully the Reds aren't quite so short-sighted with such a great talent! Oh, and by the way, Randy Johnson pitched 220 innings with a 3.65 ERA at age 26; that might be OK compared to what we are running out there, don't you think?

Bum

He wouldn't be wasted as a closer. Championship teams have great closers. Go check.

Dominant starters take longer to develop, especially left-handed ones.

Bumstead
09-01-2011, 01:57 PM
He wouldn't be wasted as a closer. Championship teams have great closers. Go check.

Dominant starters take longer to develop, especially left-handed ones.

Championship teams with great closers that are 23 years old? Dominant starters don't always take longer to develop and being left handed has nothing to do with it. Some pitchers with tremendous "stuff," like Chapman, take a little longer to get their control completely in order. That doesn't mean a team should just give up and make them a 60 inning pitcher and not take the time necessary to develop the player. At this point in his career, he would be wasted as a closer. He has so much more talent than that.

Bum

corkedbat
09-01-2011, 03:48 PM
Championship teams with great closers that are 23 years old? Dominant starters don't always take longer to develop and being left handed has nothing to do with it. Some pitchers with tremendous "stuff," like Chapman, take a little longer to get their control completely in order. That doesn't mean a team should just give up and make them a 60 inning pitcher and not take the time necessary to develop the player. At this point in his career, he would be wasted as a closer. He has so much more talent than that.

Bum


I think one of the main questions, when it comes to Chapman's role next year, will be: are the Reds willing basically to do without him as a big league asset for a year?

If he is to start, he will have to be stretched out over ST and the early past of the season. This won't happen in Cincy, so he will start the season in Louisville. Once he gets to the point where he can give you five maybe six innings on a regular basis, you will have to look at his contol. Will multiple inning cure or exasperate his control issues?

Even in the best of circumstances, you're probably looking at him joining the Reds sometime in June with about 50-60 innings already under his belt. I can't see them pitching him much more than about 120-130 inning next year - 150 at the most - (considering his worklaod the past couple of years). That means they probably shut him down sometime in mid-August or so. It will probably be 2014 before he's ready for 200 innings.

I;d do it (especially if they can go out and land someone like Shields over the winter), but I'm not sure the Reds will. I think they'll take the route of least resistance - ;eave him in the pen and let him work his way into the closer's route.

REDREAD
09-02-2011, 02:58 PM
No one was going to pay Arroyo either. I don't disagree with you that they shouldn't pick it up, I just imagine that they will. If Dusty is still around, I think it is almost a guarantee that they pick it up.

Bum

I disagree. Westbrook was not nearly as durable, yet the Cardinals signed him quick.

Arroyo has been disappointing this year, but prior to that, he was a very solid bet.

The Reds aren't going to sign Cordero next year.

Bumstead
09-02-2011, 03:07 PM
I disagree. Westbrook was not nearly as durable, yet the Cardinals signed him quick.

Arroyo has been disappointing this year, but prior to that, he was a very solid bet.

The Reds aren't going to sign Cordero next year.

Westbrook is making $8M this year and $8.5M next year not $35M over 3 years...regardless of deferrals, that is what he is being paid. And, I have liked Arroyo, I just think that contract didn't make much sense with the market that was out there.

Honestly, I don't think the Reds should pick up Cordero's option, but they will. He doesn't have to be signed.

Bum

Reds1
09-02-2011, 05:35 PM
as much as I'd love to see him start since Dusty isn't starting him now and I doubt he goes to the Arizona fall league I'd say his chance to start is basically nada. Even if they doubled his innings he'd be lucky to make it to the AS break. I really don't know the Reds plans, but I'd think he'd get a good look at closing. This team doesn't really have anyone - maybe Arredondo.

757690
09-02-2011, 06:09 PM
Volquez is mine.

He'd be my first choice too, at least to try. I would love it if the Reds were that creative. I'm not sure that they are.

gilpdawg
09-03-2011, 03:51 AM
as much as I'd love to see him start since Dusty isn't starting him now and I doubt he goes to the Arizona fall league I'd say his chance to start is basically nada. Even if they doubled his innings he'd be lucky to make it to the AS break. I really don't know the Reds plans, but I'd think he'd get a good look at closing. This team doesn't really have anyone - maybe Arredondo.

He did throw 118 innings his last season in Cuba, and 108 combined last year (I'm rounding partial innings here), so going to 140-150 wouldn't be too much of a stretch. I fear that he is just going to rot in the pen forever. It would be a crime if that arm didn't at least get a chance to start. Could be a true difference maker.

RedsManRick
09-03-2011, 11:31 AM
He wouldn't be wasted as a closer. Championship teams have great closers. Go check.

Dominant starters take longer to develop, especially left-handed ones.

They also have great starters. Which is easier to find?

Roy Tucker
09-04-2011, 12:44 PM
The thing I worry about with Volquez is his temperament and ability to perfrom under pressure.

But him as a closer is intriguing and maybe a way to resurrect his career.

Kc61
09-04-2011, 01:02 PM
The ninth inning is too important to gamble it away with Volquez, Arredondo, Bailey. Reds need a real closer. In fact, while there are other needs, I think the Reds will focus heavily this winter on the closer/set up man combo.

My guess is either Coco will sign again relatively cheaply or the Reds will acquire a veteran closer from the outside. I think they will groom Boxberger as the closer down the line.

I also think the Reds will acquire a set up man to replace Masset. I dont see Nick in that role next year.

While the Reds need a high level starter and LF, I'm more confident that this front office will make acquisitions for the bullpen. Relievers are just easier to come by.

As for Aroldis, I see him being stretched out over the winter. Don't be shocked if he spends the first half of 2012 as a long man in the pen getting ready to start. I don't see Chapman at AAA, too big a salary.

nate
09-04-2011, 01:09 PM
The ninth inning is too important to gamble it away with Volquez, Arredondo, Bailey. Reds need a real closer. In fact, while there are other needs, I think the Reds will focus heavily this winter on the closer/set up man combo.

Innings 1-8 are, for lack of a better measure shall we say, 8 times more important than the 9th to gamble them away with a repeat of the Reds 2011 pitching staff.

Kc61
09-04-2011, 01:37 PM
Innings 1-8 are, for lack of a better measure shall we say, 8 times more important than the 9th to gamble them away with a repeat of the Reds 2011 pitching staff.

I guess somebody must have said the Reds should repeat the 2011 pitching staff. I didn't.

I guess somebody wants the umpteenth debate on the need for an established closer. I don't.

I am simply confident that the Reds will view it as a priority to solidify the set up man-closer combo for 2012. I expect Masset and probably Coco to be replaced in those positions, from the outside.

As for guys like Volquez, Bailey, Wood, the Reds have decisions to make on them. The Reds can't continue having a starting pitchers tryout camp every year.

I'm not that confident Reds will acquire a high level starter from the outside. They tend to be expensive. I hope they do, obviously.

Scrap Irony
09-04-2011, 03:24 PM
Free agent closers:

Heath Bell (34)
Jonathan Broxton (28)
Matt Capps (28)
Francisco Cordero (37) - $12MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Frank Francisco (32)
Brad Lidge (35) - $12.5MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout
Joe Nathan (37) - $12.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Jonathan Papelbon (31)
Jon Rauch (33) - $3.75MM club option with a $250K buyout
Francisco Rodriguez (30)
Rafael Soriano (32) - $11MM player option or a $1.5MM buyout
Jose Valverde (34) - $9MM club option, no buyout

Lots of possibilities. Add in a Mike Adams or a Kerry Wood and you could very well see some major changes in that position across baseball as well as Cincinnati.

I'm hoping the Reds take a starter and make him a closer. Just not Chapman.

nate
09-04-2011, 06:49 PM
I guess somebody must have said the Reds should repeat the 2011 pitching staff. I didn't.

I guess somebody wants the umpteenth debate on the need for an established closer. I don't.

I am simply confident that the Reds will view it as a priority to solidify the set up man-closer combo for 2012. I expect Masset and probably Coco to be replaced in those positions, from the outside.

As for guys like Volquez, Bailey, Wood, the Reds have decisions to make on them. The Reds can't continue having a starting pitchers tryout camp every year.

I'm not that confident Reds will acquire a high level starter from the outside. They tend to be expensive. I hope they do, obviously.

I don't think the Reds will have to go outside to find a "closer." Nor should they resign Cordero.

I do think they'll have to go outside to improve the starting pitching.

I don't think they have to find "high level" starters.

I do think they have the team treasure to do so.

Rojo
09-06-2011, 02:25 PM
They also have great starters. Which is easier to find?

Closers. Which is kind of my point.

Chapman's a special talent, so I get the wait-and-see approach. But chances are that Chapman won't ever become an ace and if he does it will be a few years yet.