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nemesis
08-31-2011, 05:53 AM
Thought we'd do an open discussion before I post a poll this weekend. Who is the Reds Minor League Player of the year in our opinions...

Here are the candidates in no particular order:

Billy Hamilton - .683 OPS - 95 SB - 23 XBH

Not typical numbers for a POY candidate, but, he brings so much to the table as far as speed, pressure on the other teams defense and has won multiple games based on his flashes of talent alone.

David Vidal - .838 OPS - 43 XBH - 10% BB Rate - 79 RBI

Very solid 3B prospect in his first full season. Only 10 Errors on the year in his first full year as a third baseman.

Brodie Greene - .783 OPS - 41 XBH - 36 SB - 79 RBI

Not a normal candidate, but, has carried the Bakersfield team offensively with all the promotion while playing 3 different positions.

Eric Campbell - .946 OPS - 57 XBH - 79 RBI - 11.2% - 15.2% K Rate

Oldest of all the candidates but has put up the best numbers. That may be due to him playing at levels beneath him. Leads all Reds Minor Leagues with a .946 OPS

Yaz Grandal - .885 OPS - 43 XBH - .390 OBP

Elite catching prospect who shows both power and patience at the plate.

Henry Rodriguez - .841 OPS - 50 XBH - 30 SB - .320 BA

INF prospect who continues to hit and hit and hit. Can play 3 spots but profiles best as a Second Baseman. Has pop and baserunning skill.

Neftali Soto - .904 OPS - 52 XBH - 12.63 HR per AB

Elite Power prospect who finally learned to hit LHP. Among the leaders in HR in all of the Minors.

Denis Phipps - .910 OPS - 52 XBH - 14 SB

Actually hit almost the same number of HR's, 2B and 3B's as he did in 2010. But found a batting average to go with it. Probably a BABIP driven year but impressive none the less.

Devin Mesoraco - .855 OPS - 53 XBH - .371 OPS

Had a solid all around year. #1 Catching prospect in the minors. Was runner up last year.


So who would get your vote and why?

muddie
08-31-2011, 06:41 AM
Good thread topic...

Phipps was .328 BA in Carolina and .362 in Louisville. I'll cast my vote for Phipps. Lot of good candidates.

lollipopcurve
08-31-2011, 09:44 AM
Great question. No clear winner here.

I'll go Mesoraco.

Mario-Rijo
08-31-2011, 09:48 AM
I've been impressed with the lot of 'em but I'd go Mes (AAA all season) then Oh Henry (age appropriate level). Be tough to justify giving it to anyone else IMO.

Scrap Irony
08-31-2011, 09:53 AM
cough* Torreyes * cough

It's not his fault the Reds decided half a season of Devin Lohman was a good idea.

texasdave
08-31-2011, 09:57 AM
cough* Torreyes * cough

It's not his fault the Reds decided half a season of Devin Lohman was a good idea.

He should at least be in the conversation. OPSing .867 in the Midwest League where the average OPS is a back-of-the-napkin estimated .692. Three years younger than HRod. Puts the bat on the ball so he can take some pitches for Hamilton to steal. Not that Slidin' Billy needs many. And all he does is hit everywhere he goes. The conversation is for best hitter THIS YEAR. Not the player that projects out the best.

texasdave
08-31-2011, 09:58 AM
All the Reds minor league hitters stats in one convenient place. Thank you, Baseball-reference.com.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/affiliate.cgi?id=CIN&year=2011

dougdirt
08-31-2011, 10:10 AM
In terms of hitting, it is tough to tell Denis Phipps no. The guy is hitting .339. BABIP inflated or not, he is going to win the award that the Reds give out for either player of the year or hitter of the year.

And seriously, Billy Hamilton should be nowhere near this award. A hitter of the year nominee with a sub .700 OPS? Come on.

marcshoe
08-31-2011, 10:25 AM
1. Soto

2. Phipps

3. Mesaraco

4. Grandal

mace
08-31-2011, 11:50 AM
Of course, Hitter of the Year (thread title) and Player of the Year (opening premise) are two different things. I'll assume the "Hitter" term was meant to differentiate everyday players from pitchers. The only reason I bring that up is that the distinction could make the difference between Mesoraco and Phipps, with Mes getting extra points as a catcher. It probably does for me, even though Phipps is regarded as an outstanding outfielder.

1. Mesoraco
2. Phipps
3. Torreyes
4. Soto
5. Campbell

Edd Roush
08-31-2011, 12:09 PM
1. Soto

2. Phipps

3. Mesaraco

4. Grandal

I second the Soto vote. 30 bombs is quite a feat. Now let's hope someone can teach him how to take a walk this off-season...

bellhead
08-31-2011, 12:55 PM
I second the Soto vote. 30 bombs is quite a feat. Now let's hope someone can teach him how to take a walk this off-season...

If he learns just a little bit of taking a walk, he will have a long major league career ahead of him..

Benihana
08-31-2011, 01:00 PM
Assuming you limit the award to true prospects, Soto has my vote.

Guy had dropped off the prospect radar and has had a Mesoraco-like resurgence. Now he's a Top 5 prospect in the organization heading into next season.

marcshoe
08-31-2011, 01:17 PM
Did I understand correctly that he's hit 25 of his 30 home runs since late June? He'll definitely be interesting to watch. I'm assuming he's ticketed for Louisville next year with a possible Spring Training invite?

krm1580
08-31-2011, 02:15 PM
For me it is Soto. I don't know if anyone has the actual park factors in Zebulon, but having been there I know the outfield walls are very high from gap to the lines and it has to supress power to some extent. So 30HRs is a LOT.

As a point of reference in 2009 while playing in Zebulon a 22yo, Juan Franciso, no slouch in the power department, hit 22HRs in 437Abs. If you take Soto's current production at 379ABs and extend it to 437ABs you are looking at a 35HR season at the same age, in the same park......and unfortunately the same strike zone judgement. :(

bubbachunk
08-31-2011, 02:24 PM
For me it is Soto. I don't know if anyone has the actual park factors in Zebulon, but having been there I know the outfield walls are very high from gap to the lines and it has to supress power to some extent. So 30HRs is a LOT.

As a point of reference in 2009 while playing in Zebulon a 22yo, Juan Franciso, no slouch in the power department, hit 22HRs in 437Abs. If you take Soto's current production at 379ABs and extend it to 437ABs you are looking at a 35HR season at the same age, in the same park......and unfortunately the same strike zone judgement. :(

Soto has not been near as bad as Fransico has for his career to this point, but neither is it great.

I factor in position here a little bit so mine would read as:
Mes
Soto
Phipps
Torreyes

_Sir_Charles_
08-31-2011, 02:32 PM
Well, for me it's Torreyes. He may not have the power, but everything else he's doing off the charts. But Soto, Phipps & Mesoraco certainly all deserve it too. Should be a tough call. But Hamilton?!? No thanks.

JayBruceFan
08-31-2011, 03:14 PM
David Vidal

mace
08-31-2011, 03:36 PM
For me it is Soto. I don't know if anyone has the actual park factors in Zebulon, but having been there I know the outfield walls are very high from gap to the lines and it has to supress power to some extent. So 30HRs is a LOT.

As a point of reference in 2009 while playing in Zebulon a 22yo, Juan Franciso, no slouch in the power department, hit 22HRs in 437Abs. If you take Soto's current production at 379ABs and extend it to 437ABs you are looking at a 35HR season at the same age, in the same park......and unfortunately the same strike zone judgement. :(

krm, I went to Zebulon last year and had the same impression. Carolina seems to play OK for power hitters, but those high walls definitely make it appear forbidding. Meanwhile, good comparisons with Francisco. To me, he's the standard for power hitters in the organization.

This should be an interesting poll. Some of the comments make me consider moving Soto higher; but on the other hand, he's so much more one-dimensional than the other top guys. And that's odd, in a way. You'd think that a guy who was signed as a shortstop would not be wholly confined to first base, but that seems to be the case.

The DARK
08-31-2011, 06:44 PM
Torreyes has been very good, but I don't give it to him due to hitting behind Hamilton (which has a massive effect on how these inexperienced A-ball pitchers throw to him), and a smaller sample size.

Grandal has been largely ignored this season, but has put up some impressive numbers. He takes walks, and has a higher OPS than Mesoraco. Add that to him continuing to develop his switch-hitting skills, and I'm highly encouraged. Remember that this is his first full minor league season, and he's already knocking on the door of AAA.

But for hitting 30 homers in the short amount of time that he had, I can't give this to anyone other than Soto. There are a lot of guys like him who never put it together, but he finally seems to have. What's more, he's younger than you'd think for someone who's been around as long as he has. A little more polish, and I see him as an above-average future MLB first baseman.

_Sir_Charles_
08-31-2011, 06:56 PM
Torreyes has been very good, but I don't give it to him due to hitting behind Hamilton (which has a massive effect on how these inexperienced A-ball pitchers throw to him), and a smaller sample size.


I can understand the small sample size argument. But if his results this year were a huge increase over what he's done previously, I could understand the hesitation due to the Billy-effect. But all he's done is continue to do what he's been doing in the minors....hit...a LOT. I'm sure hitting behind Hamilton doesn't hurt, but Torreyes was going to hit regardless I'd think.

klw
08-31-2011, 07:37 PM
Mesoraco was named the Bats MVP today per twitter. Or maybe that was a few days ago. sometimes Twitter is a help sometimes..

mth123
08-31-2011, 10:02 PM
There are more good candidates this year than at any time that I can remember. This thread is proof that theReds could make a deal or two and still be well stocked.

I'll take Soto. Lee May for a new generation.

powersackers
09-01-2011, 01:47 AM
MiLB Reds POTY:
Yaz
Yonder
Soto
Mes
Torreyes
Vidal
Lutz
Campbell
Hamilton

And I would have traded any four of them for Shields and Pence.

Scrap Irony
09-01-2011, 02:55 AM
MiLB Reds POTY:
\And I would have traded any four of them for Shields and Pence.

If I could choose the four, I'd make the deal for Shields.

Any four, IMO, is overpayment.

A deal of Mesoraco, Alonso, Torreyes, and Hamilton would have to include not just a TOR pitcher, but a cleanup bat not on the 2011 market, both at cost certainty with an almost virtual lock to outperform their contracts.

texasdave
09-01-2011, 06:43 AM
There are more good candidates this year than at any time that I can remember. This thread is proof that theReds could make a deal or two and still be well stocked.

I'll take Soto. Lee May for a new generation.

A 'Big Bopper from Birmingham' reference is always welcome.

powersackers
09-01-2011, 01:20 PM
If I could choose the four, I'd make the deal for Shields.

Any four, IMO, is overpayment.

A deal of Mesoraco, Alonso, Torreyes, and Hamilton would have to include not just a TOR pitcher, but a cleanup bat not on the 2011 market, both at cost certainty with an almost virtual lock to outperform their contracts.

Agreed. What I mean is I would have, back in July, moved any 2 for Shields and any 2 for Pence. That's the TOR and Big Bat we'd needed back then to give MLW a run for their money.

So Yonder and Mes for Shields
And Torreyes, Hamilton for Pence.

Steep price, but I'd have paid it for top tier/young big league all-stars. You bet.

TRF
09-01-2011, 01:53 PM
Soto was my pick for breakout player.

He broke out.

fearofpopvol1
09-01-2011, 04:11 PM
Tough call, but I'd go Mez because of how consistent he's been at a high level.

REDblooded
09-02-2011, 12:10 AM
Baserunning is part of the offensive package... Is 30 HR's more impressive than 90+ sb's? I've heard more than 1 story of how disruptive Hamilton is by being on first base alone... I haven't heard anything about how a pitcher reacts after allowing Soto to clear the bases...

dougdirt
09-02-2011, 01:24 AM
Baserunning is part of the offensive package... Is 30 HR's more impressive than 90+ sb's? I've heard more than 1 story of how disruptive Hamilton is by being on first base alone... I haven't heard anything about how a pitcher reacts after allowing Soto to clear the bases...

30 HR's is more impressive than a sub .700 OPS, I know that no amount of base running is going to make up the difference.

TylerScottDavis
09-02-2011, 09:29 PM
Not that it does or doesn't make up the difference, but I felt the need to share something that I do for players who accumulate a significant amount of stolen bases (20+). Since OPS doesn't give ANY value for SB's (good or bad), I sometimes feel the need to do a little adjusting.

OBP is Hits + Walks / Total Plate Appearances

and

SLG is Total Bases / At Bats

So, making a "Steals Adjusted (SA) OPS" should be fairly simple.

SAOBP is Hits + Walks - Caught Stealing

and

SASLG is Total Bases + Stolen Bases - Caught Stealing / At Bats

This adjustment penalizes a player for a CS by taking away from BOTH his OBP AND his SLG and rewards a player's SLG for each SB.

And why shouldn't we rewards a player's SLG for a SB? As OPS currently stands, if player 1 hits a double and then stays on second base but player 2 hits a single and then proceeds to steal both 2nd and 3rd, player 1 has the higher OPS...this just isn't a logical evaluation.

TylerScottDavis
09-02-2011, 09:32 PM
Billy Hamilton "Steals Adjusted OPS"

Actual OBP: .335, SAOBP: .299
Actual SLG: .354, SASLG: .493
Actual OPS: .689, SAOPS: .792

wlf WV
09-02-2011, 10:58 PM
I really don't know,but this thread has brightened my view of Reds baseball this year.

I do enjoy this forum. Thanks all you guys that keep us MiLB illiterates in the know.

dougdirt
09-03-2011, 12:07 PM
Billy Hamilton "Steals Adjusted OPS"

Actual OBP: .335, SAOBP: .299
Actual SLG: .354, SASLG: .493
Actual OPS: .689, SAOPS: .792

It doesn't work that way. His steals don't just add slugging on a 1-1 basis. His steals don't advance other runners.

TylerScottDavis
09-03-2011, 03:59 PM
It doesn't work that way. His steals don't just add slugging on a 1-1 basis. His steals don't advance other runners.

It's not perfect, but it's something and I think it's better than totally ignoring the value of a stolen base.

Many base-hits don't advance other runners (probably the vast majority don't), yet they all count the same towards a player's SLG and OPS.

There's also the example I gave above, in which the base-stealer is left with the lower OPS despite achieving better results, so it can work both ways.

I don't know much about the other offensive metrics out there, but OPS in its current form leaves speed dependent players severely undervalued.

dougdirt
09-03-2011, 06:12 PM
It's not perfect, but it's something and I think it's better than totally ignoring the value of a stolen base.

Many base-hits don't advance other runners (probably the vast majority don't), yet they all count the same towards a player's SLG and OPS.

There's also the example I gave above, in which the base-stealer is left with the lower OPS despite achieving better results, so it can work both ways.

I don't know much about the other offensive metrics out there, but OPS in its current form leaves speed dependent players severely undervalued.

Every base hit advances a runner unless the runner is an idiot. A single is always going to advance another runner at least one base. If not, then its a fielders choice and a hit it is not.

And a single doesn't count the same as a double in OPS or SLG. Just like a double doesn't count the same as a triple or a HR. They are all different.

While steals aren't ignored, even a ton of them, they are absolutely a secondary skillset to hitting the ball or walking.

REDblooded
09-04-2011, 03:38 AM
While steals aren't ignored, even a ton of them, they are absolutely a secondary skillset to hitting the ball or walking.

Because the effect a guy like Hamilton has on the game when he reaches first base isn't quantifiable by current sabermetric statistics?

I'm pretty sure that OPS doesn't register how the pace of the game changes when a blazer like Hamilton gets on base. It doesn't register how a pitcher is probably more likely to rush his delivery and miss his spots. I'm also pretty sure it doesn't register how defensive shifts to hold him close to the bag open up holes in the infield for the guy in the box. I'm again pretty sure that it doesn't calculate how it allows him to turn a single into a double or triple by moving himself over without the help of another hitter...

Finally, the notion that doubles and triples are more statistically effective at moving other runners is absurd. OPS doesn't calculate whether another hitter is on base. If another batter hits 20 doubles with nobody on base, nobody advances an extra base on the hit. Likewise, with Hamilton being a lead-off hitter, the chances that the 8/9 guys in the line-up have hit their way into scoring position prior to his AB are pretty slim...

PuffyPig
09-04-2011, 10:31 AM
Every base hit advances a runner unless the runner is an idiot. A single is always going to advance another runner at least one base. If not, then its a fielders choice and a hit it is not.

And a single doesn't count the same as a double in OPS or SLG. Just like a double doesn't count the same as a triple or a HR. They are all different.

While steals aren't ignored, even a ton of them, they are absolutely a secondary skillset to hitting the ball or walking.

He meant that the majority of hits occur when no one is on base, therefore no one can advance.

In 2011, 57% of the Reds hits have come with no one on base.

And a single is not always going to advance a runner one base.

Example:a runner on 2nd, hitter hits a ground ball into the hole at short. Runner stays at 2nd as the ball is hit in front of him and he might be an easy out at 3rd. Runner beats out the throw to first, and gets correctly credited with a hit. You see this happen once in a while.

Example #2: Runner on 2nd , less than 2 outs, batter hit a short pop to LF. It drops in, but the LF grabs it quickly and runner on 2nd cannot advance. Again, it's a hit, not a fielders choice.

Your statement of "a runner has to advance for it to be called a single" is only true when there is a runner on first.

Incidentally, sometimes a runner only advances one base on a double. Example, runner on 2nd, less than 2 outs, Hitter hits a flare down the left field line which drops in. The speedy batter gets easily to 2nd and correctly has a double, but the baserunner can only advance one base to 3rd.

bubbachunk
09-04-2011, 10:32 AM
Because the effect a guy like Hamilton has on the game when he reaches first base isn't quantifiable by current sabermetric statistics?

I'm pretty sure that OPS doesn't register how the pace of the game changes when a blazer like Hamilton gets on base. It doesn't register how a pitcher is probably more likely to rush his delivery and miss his spots. I'm also pretty sure it doesn't register how defensive shifts to hold him close to the bag open up holes in the infield for the guy in the box. I'm again pretty sure that it doesn't calculate how it allows him to turn a single into a double or triple by moving himself over without the help of another hitter...

Finally, the notion that doubles and triples are more statistically effective at moving other runners is absurd. OPS doesn't calculate whether another hitter is on base. If another batter hits 20 doubles with nobody on base, nobody advances an extra base on the hit. Likewise, with Hamilton being a lead-off hitter, the chances that the 8/9 guys in the line-up have hit their way into scoring position prior to his AB are pretty slim...

Whether or not a runner is one base for a guy to move over is not that batter problem. It always is a theoretical runner.

You could attempt to measure it by doing a proportion test of say OPS of hitters when Billy is on base vs when he is not. I personally do not want to dig up those stats but you are more than welcome.

dougdirt
09-04-2011, 01:52 PM
Whether or not a runner is one base for a guy to move over is not that batter problem. It always is a theoretical runner.

You could attempt to measure it by doing a proportion test of say OPS of hitters when Billy is on base vs when he is not. I personally do not want to dig up those stats but you are more than welcome.

I can't say what is influenced by Hamilton here, but given that Hamilton bats 1 and Torreyes bats 2 and Torreyes he only been around for the second half (plus two games) and Hamilton has been pretty solid in the second half, here are the splits of Torreyes with runners on and without runners on:



Entire Season AB 2B 3B HR BB% K% AVG OBP SLG OPS
Bases Empty 158 2 1 3 5.4% 7.8% .354 .400 .437 .837
Runners On 116 7 4 0 4.1% 4.1% .371 .408 .500 .908


The two lines are pretty similar with the lone difference being the power advantage when the bases have someone on them.

Scrap Irony
09-04-2011, 06:21 PM
Entire Season AB 2B 3B HR BB% K% AVG OBP SLG OPS
Bases Empty 158 2 1 3 5.4% 7.8% .354 .400 .437 .837
Runners On 116 7 4 0 4.1% 4.1% .371 .408 .500 .908


The two lines are pretty similar with the lone difference being the power advantage when the bases have someone on them.

The difference between the two OPSes is the same as the difference between Justin Upton's and Jhonny Peralta's.

The difference in slugging is Jay Bruce to Starlin Castro or Kelly Johnson.

dougdirt
09-04-2011, 06:36 PM
The difference between the two OPSes is the same as the difference between Justin Upton's and Jhonny Peralta's.

The difference in slugging is Jay Bruce to Starlin Castro or Kelly Johnson.

Yes, but the sample size isn't even two hundred at bats either. And the difference really comes from the power. I am not sure we can draw much there with what we have. I mean all of his HR's have come with no one on base, but his doubles and triples totals are much higher with someone on base. Does any of it have to do with someone being on base or not being on base or is it simply a random effect going on in a small sample size? We aren't really going to be able to answer that.

Scrap Irony
09-04-2011, 07:10 PM
I get the small sample size , but you brought the seasonal lines up as "proof" it didn't mean anything.

If those numbers hold true, having Hamilton on base means plenty.

dougdirt
09-04-2011, 07:16 PM
I get the small sample size , but you brought the seasonal lines up as "proof" it didn't mean anything.

If those numbers hold true, having Hamilton on base means plenty.

I think you misread something. I said "I can't say what is influenced by Hamilton here" then went into the stats for Torreyes.

RedsManRick
09-04-2011, 08:23 PM
The difference between the two OPSes is the same as the difference between Justin Upton's and Jhonny Peralta's.

The difference in slugging is Jay Bruce to Starlin Castro or Kelly Johnson.

For what it's worth, there is a league wide split for bases empty vs. runners on base:

Bases Empty: .251/.312/.396, .707
Runners On: .261/.331/.402, .733

There's also the simple matter of looking at 158 AB vs. 116. If you're trying to predict a player's true skill from that sample, the confidence intervals are massive.

Basically, it's something like this:

His OPS with the bases empty is something between .637 and 1.037. His OPS with runners on .658 and 1.158. We can't say with any certainty within those windows what his "true talent" split is (in this case, true talent could be defined as including Billy Hamilton -- this is about variance given samples).

Given that, how confident would be you that the observed split is representative of the actual one? We just can't read much of anything in to an observed split like that. And that's what Doug was saying.

Scrap Irony
09-04-2011, 09:35 PM
Whoops.

My bad, doug.

Looks like I picked a bad day to stop sniffing glue.