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Blitz Dorsey
09-07-2011, 03:35 AM
Of course there is trepidation in terms of what Walt will (or more-specifically won't) do this offseason, but if he can find a way to have a "winning" offseason for once, this Reds team is set up for success in 2012.

We've been waiting for the young crop of studs (Alonso, Mesoraco, etc) to be in the same lineup with proven guys like Votto, Bruce and Phillips. It's going to happen in 2012 from the beginning of the season on (not just in Sept when it doesn't matter). I think Cozart will be at least "good enough" at SS, which has been a complete black hole for this team the last few years.

The pitching staff needs someone at the top along with Cueto and there is plenty of talent in the organization for Walt to come up with a good trade. He should be able to put together a nice package in exchange for someone who can be the co-ace with Cueto. Actually, it would be great to have Cueto as the No. 2, but I'm trying to give Johnny respect. He's showing he might be the ace of the future for a team that hasn't had a real ace since Jose Rijo tore up his elbow. But I would love to see the Reds package Bailey, Volquez and Francisco (and maybe one other player) for a true ace. I'm going to throw a party at my house for this entire board if it happens.

Need to find a closer, but there are in-house options, or perhaps Walt could sign a veteran for a one-year deal (something not too expensive -- in the $6 million range). Guys like Putz were available last offseason for a very reasonable rate -- hopefully there will be someone like that out there this winter that Walt can grab if he's not sold on any of the in-house options.

BTW: I'm in the "Chapman should be a starter" camp. His control problems won't be nearly as big of an issue stretched across several innings as opposed to the ninth inning in save situations when every baserunner and every out is crucial. Also, there is way too much money invested in him to be a guy that pitches 60 innings a year. He needs to be up in the 160 IP range next year. Eventually 200 would be great, but he's not ready for that. The Reds would just get so much more out of him as a starter and that's what he had always been before the Reds signed him. I'm still not convinced his comfortable as a reliever. I think the Reds will make the decision to make him a starter this winter.

Bottom line: Unless the front office completely screws the pooch this offseason, the Reds are going to be very good next season. Most of the pieces are in place. Votto is going to be his usual fantastic self, Bruce is getting better each year, Phillips will be in "another" contract year, Alonso is becoming the masher we hoped (I know, I know, small sample size, but admit it, you're excited), and Mesoraco is the long-term answer at catcher and he's finally here. Need to upgrade the pitching just a little bit and it's going to be a fun year next season. Who's coming with me!?

PuffyPig
09-07-2011, 07:59 PM
I agree that we are in pretty good shape heading into 2012.

Our run differential this year suggests we aren't nearly as bad as our record indicates.

RedEye
09-07-2011, 09:22 PM
I agree that we are in pretty good shape heading into 2012.

Our run differential this year suggests we aren't nearly as bad as our record indicates.

Precisely. In 2010, things seemed to break the team's way all the time. In 2011, they seemed to break against them. Pythag has them with a .530 winning percentage right now -- right in the thick of the race still, really. I think the core components are still there, and agree with pretty much everything BD said in the original post (except maybe dropping 6 million on a closer).

corkedbat
09-07-2011, 09:57 PM
Precisely. In 2010, things seemed to break the team's way all the time. In 2011, they seemed to break against them. Pythag has them with a .530 winning percentage right now -- right in the thick of the race still, really. I think the core components are still there, and agree with pretty much everything BD said in the original post (except maybe dropping 6 million on a closer).

I certainly believe the pieces are there to make a run next year and there is enough surplus to add a couple of key pieces. I'd go pursue the Votto for Bautista deal and a deal for James Shields with the Rays. I'd go after a FA LH bat (Kelly Johnson, Josh Willingham, Coco Crisp, Laynce Nix -possibilities) off the bench. I'd also add a late inning righty and lefty.

Anybody have a list of upcoming Free Agents? I found one from COTS, but it's back from early April.

RedsManRick
09-07-2011, 10:02 PM
I'd like to see us turn a whole lot of pretty solid prospects in to a few really good major leaguers.

Blitz Dorsey
09-07-2011, 10:17 PM
Precisely. In 2010, things seemed to break the team's way all the time. In 2011, they seemed to break against them. Pythag has them with a .530 winning percentage right now -- right in the thick of the race still, really. I think the core components are still there, and agree with pretty much everything BD said in the original post (except maybe dropping 6 million on a closer).

Yeah, I hear you. I'm honestly not sold on the idea of giving a free agent closer $6 million. However, if none of the in-house options are ready and there is a good veteran closer on the market that is willing (or forced due to a lack of interest) to sign a one-year deal, the Reds might have to look into that. The D'Backs got a great bargain with Putz. (Although that was a two-year deal, not one.)

I'm definitely not into spending a lot of money for a closer. But I also don't want the situation to be completely ignored this offseason. Obviously I'm hoping Walt doesn't think Chapman is a closer.

RedEye
09-07-2011, 10:21 PM
I'm definitely not into spending a lot of money for a closer. But I also don't want the situation to be completely ignored this offseason. Obviously I'm hoping Walt doesn't think Chapman is a closer.

If Walt wants to add a #1 SP, a middle-of-the-order LF bat, and a few other pieces, and he can still afford to drop $6 mill on a closer, then I'm for it. Otherwise, I think it would be a mismanagement of funds. I would hope they've learned something from the Cordero debacle. An expensive closer can be an important part of a team, but only if you've already got the rest of it in-place first.

That said, I also would rather Walt spend $6 million on a closer than slot in Chapman as the next one. So go figure.

gilpdawg
09-10-2011, 01:24 AM
Of course there is trepidation in terms of what Walt will (or more-specifically won't) do this offseason, but if he can find a way to have a "winning" offseason for once, this Reds team is set up for success in 2012.

We've been waiting for the young crop of studs (Alonso, Mesoraco, etc) to be in the same lineup with proven guys like Votto, Bruce and Phillips. It's going to happen in 2012 from the beginning of the season on (not just in Sept when it doesn't matter). I think Cozart will be at least "good enough" at SS, which has been a complete black hole for this team the last few years.

The pitching staff needs someone at the top along with Cueto and there is plenty of talent in the organization for Walt to come up with a good trade. He should be able to put together a nice package in exchange for someone who can be the co-ace with Cueto. Actually, it would be great to have Cueto as the No. 2, but I'm trying to give Johnny respect. He's showing he might be the ace of the future for a team that hasn't had a real ace since Jose Rijo tore up his elbow. But I would love to see the Reds package Bailey, Volquez and Francisco (and maybe one other player) for a true ace. I'm going to throw a party at my house for this entire board if it happens.

Need to find a closer, but there are in-house options, or perhaps Walt could sign a veteran for a one-year deal (something not too expensive -- in the $6 million range). Guys like Putz were available last offseason for a very reasonable rate -- hopefully there will be someone like that out there this winter that Walt can grab if he's not sold on any of the in-house options.

BTW: I'm in the "Chapman should be a starter" camp. His control problems won't be nearly as big of an issue stretched across several innings as opposed to the ninth inning in save situations when every baserunner and every out is crucial. Also, there is way too much money invested in him to be a guy that pitches 60 innings a year. He needs to be up in the 160 IP range next year. Eventually 200 would be great, but he's not ready for that. The Reds would just get so much more out of him as a starter and that's what he had always been before the Reds signed him. I'm still not convinced his comfortable as a reliever. I think the Reds will make the decision to make him a starter this winter.

Bottom line: Unless the front office completely screws the pooch this offseason, the Reds are going to be very good next season. Most of the pieces are in place. Votto is going to be his usual fantastic self, Bruce is getting better each year, Phillips will be in "another" contract year, Alonso is becoming the masher we hoped (I know, I know, small sample size, but admit it, you're excited), and Mesoraco is the long-term answer at catcher and he's finally here. Need to upgrade the pitching just a little bit and it's going to be a fun year next season. Who's coming with me!?

I'm optimistic as well. And I'm holding you to that "board party" thing. :)

Sent from my SGH-I897 using Tapatalk

RANDY IN INDY
09-10-2011, 08:18 AM
I can probably make the party since I'm in Indy now, Blitz!:)

Redsfan320
09-10-2011, 09:44 AM
Anybody have a list of upcoming Free Agents? I found one from COTS, but it's back from early April.

Current Free Agents (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/09/2011-mlb-free-agents.html)

Free Agents after this season (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/03/2012-mlb-free-agents.html)

Free Agents after next season (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/04/2013-mlb-free-agents.html)

:beerme:

320

dunner13
09-10-2011, 01:34 PM
I know hes going to be expensive especially if the yankees go after him which there expected to do but I would love to see us sign CJ Wilson. He's already a top pitcher and I think moving to the NL Central would only make him better.

RedsManRick
09-10-2011, 03:05 PM
I know hes going to be expensive especially if the yankees go after him which there expected to do but I would love to see us sign CJ Wilson. He's already a top pitcher and I think moving to the NL Central would only make him better.

He'd definitely be a nice target, but I think he's going to get big, big money from somebody. I think he's a Yankee-in-waiting.

757690
09-10-2011, 05:16 PM
He'd definitely be a nice target, but I think he's going to get big, big money from somebody. I think he's a Yankee-in-waiting.

Yeah, Wilson would be a great acquisition, but the only question is whether he'll get CC money or Lackey money.

mth123
09-10-2011, 05:26 PM
Yeah, Wilson would be a great acquisition, but the only question is whether he'll get CC money or Lackey money.

Either way is too much for the Reds. A deal for James Shields and his reasonable $7 Million makes the most sense to me. If not Shields, then Niemann. The Rays will trade a more expensive arm to make room for Moore and Cobb. They need offense and Alonso would be a great fit for them.

Caveat Emperor
09-10-2011, 05:38 PM
I don't see how you can expect 2012 to be any different than 2011 until the Reds seriously address their pitching in the offseason.

dougdirt
09-10-2011, 06:59 PM
I don't see how you can expect 2012 to be any different than 2011 until the Reds seriously address their pitching in the offseason.

While I tend to agree somewhat, I think not missing 10 starts to begin the year between Bailey and Cueto would help (of course I guess you could argue that Cueto isn't likely to repeat this season either). Adding Chapman to the rotation could help. But maybe he simply isn't ready either. Lots of questions. I think much like this year, the error bars on the record next season could be quite large. I could see the team next year winning 90+ or winning 75.

Blitz Dorsey
09-10-2011, 07:20 PM
I don't see how you can expect 2012 to be any different than 2011 until the Reds seriously address their pitching in the offseason.

Yeah, did you notice that was a big caveat I included? Obviously they need to add a TOR starting pitcher ... and will need to address their bullpen as well. But they have plenty of talent in the organization to make a trade happen that will give them exactly what they need without mortgaging the future. I believe a package of Bailey, Volquez, Sappelt and Francisco would be enough to make a lot of teams interested.

reds44
09-13-2011, 03:23 AM
What have we learned about some guys this year?

Sappelt, still a question mark. Don't think you can go into 2011 relying on him for anything.
Alonso can hit the hell out of the ball, but he or Votto is going to be traded in the offseason, and my money is on him.
Cozart, get healthy and he should have every chance to be the everyday SS next year.
Heisey, really good bench player, probably nothing more unless he's playing CF and even then he's still a question.
Stubbs, could be upgraded, but not "Paul Janish" either.
Janish, if he never has another AB for the Reds again he'll have too many.
Frazier, most likely a utility player with some pop.
Francisco, bit of a lost year for him. Don't really know anymore about him than you did last year. My guess is the Reds go into next year with him as Rolen's backup though.
Mesoraco, only 18 ABs but there's no reason to believe he won't be the catcher next year.

Wood took a step back. Wouldn't give up on him though.
Leake took another step forward. Lock for the rotation.
Volquez is most likely done as a Red.
Willis shouldn't be back as anything more than insurance.
Bailey was pretty much Homer Bailey. Inconsistent, but good enough to warrant a spot next year.
Chapman, put him in the rotation.

LF: ???
CF: Stubbs (tentatively, could see him being moved)
RF: Bruce
3B: Rolen/Francisco (I don't like this because this was the plan this year and it blew up, but I think it's what we'll get)
SS: Cozart (need a backup)
2B: Phillips (picking up the option is a no brainer)
1B: Votto/Alonso (trade one, most likely Alonso)
C: Mesoraco/Hanigan

Cueto
Chapman (make him a starter and leave it alone)
Leake
Bailey
Arroyo (only because of his contract)

Wood in AAA

Bray
Ondrusek
LeCure (swing man)
Massett (even with his disappointing year)
Arredondo?

LF, the back end of the bullpen, and trading (most likely) Alonso are the storylines of the offseason.

I could see Bailey used as bait to try to reel in a TOR arm too.

EDIT: Didn't realize Cordero had a $12 mil club option. Think that's probably too much money, but who knows.

membengal
09-13-2011, 06:32 AM
Nice summation, Reds44, but if that is the rotation plan, they are not winning anything, again.