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Chip R
09-08-2011, 10:28 AM
Here's an interesting topic for an off/rainy day and a bit of a change of pace from the usual topics on here.

Let's say that MLB has decided to expand by two teams in 2012. Every team must submit a protected list for the draft. Those on the protected list cannot be drafted by the expansion teams. The rules for the protected list are as follows:

A) Players who were drafted in the last two amateur drafts are not eligible to be selected in the Expansion draft. Also, players selected in the 2009 amateur draft who were under the age of 19 at the time they were selected are also exempt. Teams do not have to protect these players. These same rules apply to amateur free agents who signed in the same timeframe.

B) Any player who is going to be a free agent, obviously, will not need to be protected in this draft, since they will not be on their team’s roster at the time of the draft.

C) Teams are required to submit a list of 15 eligible players who will be “protected” for the first round, meaning that neither expansion team can select them.

D) The expansion teams are only allowed to select one player from any organization per round.

E) After each expansion team has picked 15 players (which would mean that every MLB club has had one players selected), each club is allowed to protect three additional players for Round 2. At that point, the process repeats itself, with 15 more picks, and three more protected players, for Round 3. This continues until each expansion team has selected 35 players

So, using these rules, what 15 would you protect on the Reds? In my online search for the rules I see that Redleg Nation and The Platoon Advantage has already done this so my apologies for being derivative.

cinreds21
09-08-2011, 11:15 AM
Interesting.


Aroldis Chapman
Jonny Cueto
Devin Mesoraco
Joey Votto
Jay Bruce
Todd Frazier
Zack Cozart
Yasmani Grandal
Juan Francisco
Yonder Alonso
Drew Stubbs
Homer Bailey
Dave Sappelt
Logan Ondrusek
Travis Wood

That was harder than I thought because I had a hard time picking a solid 15 players to protect. lol

crazybob60
09-08-2011, 11:25 AM
Wouldn't Aroldis fall under Rule A listed above?

As well as Grandal?

Danny Serafini
09-08-2011, 11:34 AM
Wouldn't Aroldis fall under Rule A listed above?

As well as Grandal?

Grandal would, since he was drafted in 2010. Don't know about Chapman, he was signed between the 2009 and 2010 drafts, and was older than 19 at the time.

RedsManRick
09-08-2011, 12:02 PM
Just curious, is this like a Rule V where the guys have to go to the major league roster? If not, I'd be inclined to protect a guy like Corcino, Lotzkar, or Billy Hamilton.

Otherwise, I think I most agree with the list above. My differences are:
- I would keep Leake (since Chapman is protected) -- and would keep him over a reliever in any event.
- I would keep Phillips (since Grandal is protected).
- I would keep Bray over Ondrusek and Phillips since Grandal is protected. Bray has quietly been our most effective reliever this year. Lefties that miss bats like that are much harder to come by than righties who don't.

C Mesoraco
1B Votto
2B Phillips
3B Fransisco
CI/OF Alonso
CI/OF Frazier
SS Cozart
OF Sappelt
OF Stubbs
OF Bruce

SP Cueto
SP Leake
SP Wood
SP Bailey

RP Bray

IslandRed
09-08-2011, 12:26 PM
Just curious, is this like a Rule V where the guys have to go to the major league roster?

In expansion drafts, they get them for keeps. Selecting 35 players, it stands to reason the team will choose some knowing they'll go to the minors initially. I'd assume any service time/option status stuff would follow to the new team.

Would Chapman have to be protected? It's not clear. The rules just said "in the same timeframe" as those taken in the amateur draft. I guess it's a matter of interpretation whether he's protected because he signed after the 2009 draft, or not protected since he signed before the 2010 draft. Obviously, he's on the list if he needs to be.

I don't think Hamilton would need to be protected, thankfully, since he was drafted in 2009 but was 18 years old at the time.

Corcino would have to be protected if you want to keep him.

IslandRed
09-08-2011, 12:44 PM
Here's mine, guessing Chapman would have to be protected:

C Mesoraco
1B Votto
2B Phillips
SS Cozart
3B Fransisco or CI/OF Frazier
CI/OF Alonso
OF Sappelt
OF Stubbs
OF Bruce

SP Cueto
SP Bailey
SP Leake
SP Wood
SP Chapman
SP Corcino

I wouldn't protect both Francisco and Frazier. I don't think either projects as a regular anywhere but as Rolen's heir at third base, and I wouldn't want to use two of my initial 15 spots when I know one of them is going to end up either as a utility guy or as trade bait. I'd make my choice and move on. I'd also try like blazes to trade Volquez before the expansion draft, because you know he'd be gone. May as well try to get something.

REDREAD
09-08-2011, 02:37 PM
Interesting.


Aroldis Chapman
Jonny Cueto
Devin Mesoraco
Joey Votto
Jay Bruce
Todd Frazier
Zack Cozart
Yasmani Grandal
Juan Francisco
Yonder Alonso
Drew Stubbs
Homer Bailey
Dave Sappelt
Logan Ondrusek
Travis Wood

That was harder than I thought because I had a hard time picking a solid 15 players to protect. lol

I would drop Sappelt, Frasier, and another prospect
I would add Leake, Phillips, and Bray. Those three guys are pretty critical
to us contending, and would be difficult to replace. (Bray less critical than the other two)

IslandRed
09-08-2011, 03:14 PM
Turning the question around... now that you've turned in your list, who do you expect to lose first?

Put yourself in the expansion GM's chair. You get 15 selections (and so does the other expansion team) before the current teams can add three names to their protected list. You have to consider several factors in your draft -- fielding a team right away, stocking the minor leagues, service time and cost issues, etc. Who's the top name on your list of available players from the Reds?

Although there are obvious risks, Edinson Volquez is clearly the guy I'd grab. Only two years from free agency, but he's still relatively cheap for now (and ought to stay so given this year's results), he should be through his post-TJ recovery period by next year, and although he's inconsistent, he offers a potential rotation payoff that very few other guys in the expansion draft could match.

Alternatively, I'd consider Ryan Hanigan as an inexpensive catching anchor that should be a step up from fishing the veteran-backup pool.

RedsManRick
09-08-2011, 04:30 PM
Chris Heisey would be at/near the top of my list. Guys who can play a legit CF and hit 20+ HR are pretty hard to come by. He may not have the value ceiling of Volquez but's he got a higher floor.

IslandRed
09-08-2011, 05:10 PM
Chris Heisey would be at/near the top of my list. Guys who can play a legit CF and hit 20+ HR are pretty hard to come by. He may not have the value ceiling of Volquez but's he got a higher floor.

You're right, that's another good option. An expansion team could do a lot worse than to have Heisey in its outfield for a few years.

PuffyPig
09-08-2011, 05:11 PM
Interesting.


Aroldis Chapman
Jonny Cueto
Devin Mesoraco
Joey Votto
Jay Bruce
Todd Frazier
Zack Cozart
Yasmani Grandal
Juan Francisco
Yonder Alonso
Drew Stubbs
Homer Bailey
Dave Sappelt
Logan Ondrusek
Travis Wood

That was harder than I thought because I had a hard time picking a solid 15 players to protect. lol

Sappelt, Ondrusek, Francisco, Frazier,Wood and others over Leake?

dougdirt
09-08-2011, 05:42 PM
I would go with these guys:

Joey Votto
Jay Bruce
Devin Mesoraco
Yonder Alonso
Brandon Phillips
Zack Cozart
Drew Stubbs
Todd Frazier
Dave Sappelt
Yasmani Grandal

Johnny Cueto
Homer Bailey
Aroldis Chapman (if he has to be protected)
Mike Leake
Brad Boxberger

mth123
09-08-2011, 10:25 PM
1.Votto
2. Bruce
3. Cueto
4. Alonso
5. Chapman
6. Bailey
7. Mesoraco
8. Stubbs
9. Sappelt
10. Leake
11. Cozart
12. Frazier
13. Francisco
14. Soto
15. Corcino

I'm assuming Grandal, Hamilton and Torreyes are exempt. Arroyo, Rolen and Phillips probably aren't picked because of contract status. 1st guy picked is one of Heisey. Bray, Volquez or Wood. If I had to pick one, I'd say Volquez. After round one, the other three would be the guys I'd add.

WVRedsFan
09-09-2011, 02:35 AM
Votto
Phillips
Francisco
Rolen
Alonso
Stubbs
Bruce
Valakia
Heisey
Cueto
Leake
Bailey
Willis
Chapman


that's all. These all on the team now, and I have no idea what the rules are regqarding toher on the 40-man.

PuffyPig
09-09-2011, 09:09 AM
Votto
Phillips
Francisco
Rolen
Alonso
Stubbs
Bruce
Valakia
Heisey
Cueto
Leake
Bailey
Willis
Chapman


that's all. These all on the team now, and I have no idea what the rules are regqarding toher on the 40-man.

I'm not sure that protecting a FA like Willis would be particularly wise.

Protecting Valika over guys like Mesoraco, Wood, Ondrusek, Bray seems odd.

Protecting Rolen makes little sense as his contract means he won't get picked.

Scrap Irony
09-09-2011, 04:39 PM
C Mesoraco
1B Votto
2B Phillips
3B Francisco
CI/OF Alonso
CI/OF Frazier
SS Cozart
OF Sappelt
OF Stubbs
OF Bruce
SP Cueto
SP Leake
SP Volquez
SP Bailey
RP Bray

I kept Volquez over Wood, as he has better pure stuff and a better chance of being dominant TOR material as a starter.

I believe Wood would be taken (though Heisey very well could be). Boxberger also would be an astute pick for a team that likes high upside arms. Same with Hanigan.

I'd then protect Heisey/Wood, Boxberger, and Hanigan to keep.

Expansion team would then likely grab either Ondrusek or Masset. Perhaps Neftali Soto. Perhaps Daniel Corcino.

I'd protect the three left.

mace
09-09-2011, 06:02 PM
One unmentioned guy who I think should be strongly considered is Didi Gregorius, a 4-tool, athletic, productive, 21-year-old shortstop who's already in AA. I think I might keep him before the likes of Ondrusek, Bray and Volquez, at least.

Two others who probably shouldn't make the cut but warrant at least a second thought are Denis Phipps and J.C. Sulbaran. In my view.

Lastly, would anybody else contemplate protecting Heisey ahead of Stubbs? For starters, they're the same age and Heisey has a better OPS. I know that people consider Stubbs to be a premier center fielder, but I don't believe he has yet reached that level. In fact, I'm not certain that there's a substantial difference in their defense at this point. Agreed that Stubbs' speed is something special. That said, I think the only way that he projects significantly better than Heisey is if he materially improves his hit tool. And I don't think that's a given.

mth123
09-09-2011, 07:45 PM
One unmentioned guy who I think should be strongly considered is Didi Gregorius, a 4-tool, athletic, productive, 21-year-old shortstop who's already in AA. I think I might keep him before the likes of Ondrusek, Bray and Volquez, at least.

Two others who probably shouldn't make the cut but warrant at least a second thought are Denis Phipps and J.C. Sulbaran. In my view.

Lastly, would anybody else contemplate protecting Heisey ahead of Stubbs? For starters, they're the same age and Heisey has a better OPS. I know that people consider Stubbs to be a premier center fielder, but I don't believe he has yet reached that level. In fact, I'm not certain that there's a substantial difference in their defense at this point. Agreed that Stubbs' speed is something special. That said, I think the only way that he projects significantly better than Heisey is if he materially improves his hit tool. And I don't think that's a given.

I didn't think about protecting Heisey instead of Stubbs, but I did consider Gregorious, Rodriguez, Phipps, Wood and Volquez in front of him. I kept Stubbs on my list, but he's my bubble guy.

PuffyPig
09-09-2011, 09:05 PM
Lastly, would anybody else contemplate protecting Heisey ahead of Stubbs? For starters, they're the same age and Heisey has a better OPS. I know that people consider Stubbs to be a premier center fielder, but I don't believe he has yet reached that level. In fact, I'm not certain that there's a substantial difference in their defense at this point. Agreed that Stubbs' speed is something special. That said, I think the only way that he projects significantly better than Heisey is if he materially improves his hit tool. And I don't think that's a given.

Stubbs has likely double the trade value of Heisey.

REDREAD
09-12-2011, 10:32 AM
Turning the question around... now that you've turned in your list, who do you expect to lose first?


Heisey or Hannigan, I'd expect to lose.

If I was the expansion GM, and I could pick from other people's lists, I'd pick Phillips without blinking.. Then I'd try to extend him. Phillips would probably be the best available player in the expansion draft. He could hit anywhere 1-4 on an expansion team. He's an all star 2b. Most of the rest of my roster would probably be young guys, so his salary is not a problem.. It would be nice to have a star player.

I mean, let's face it, there's a reason Hannigan and Heisey are exposed by most people.. they probably aren't going to be stars. You could probably sign a veteran FA catcher who could give you similiar production to Hannigan.
I agree that Heisey's potential upside in CF would be intriguing to an expansion team, but he's never going to be the player Phillips is.

mth123
09-12-2011, 08:21 PM
Heisey or Hannigan, I'd expect to lose.

If I was the expansion GM, and I could pick from other people's lists, I'd pick Phillips without blinking.. Then I'd try to extend him. Phillips would probably be the best available player in the expansion draft. He could hit anywhere 1-4 on an expansion team. He's an all star 2b. Most of the rest of my roster would probably be young guys, so his salary is not a problem.. It would be nice to have a star player.

I mean, let's face it, there's a reason Hannigan and Heisey are exposed by most people.. they probably aren't going to be stars. You could probably sign a veteran FA catcher who could give you similiar production to Hannigan.
I agree that Heisey's potential upside in CF would be intriguing to an expansion team, but he's never going to be the player Phillips is.

I can't see any expansion team choosing a 30 something desirable vet in his walk year. Players like that want to go somewhere with winning in sight. Unless a home town situation is involved, I just couldn't see a vet ever agreeing to stick around beyond that one season. Likely, the choosing team would get the right to pay him a lot of money for half a season and then to trade him away for pennies on the dollar. Not a smart way to build a team IMO.

REDREAD
09-13-2011, 12:31 PM
I can't see any expansion team choosing a 30 something desirable vet in his walk year. Players like that want to go somewhere with winning in sight. Unless a home town situation is involved, I just couldn't see a vet ever agreeing to stick around beyond that one season. Likely, the choosing team would get the right to pay him a lot of money for half a season and then to trade him away for pennies on the dollar. Not a smart way to build a team IMO.

Trading away a player like Phillips for pennies on the dollar might be better than the alternative though. Look back through past expansion drafts.
Very few picks amounted to anything. Ryan Hannigan or Heisey is not exactly a prized pick that you could build a team around. There was pretty strong interest in renting Reyes this year. I imagine there would be interest if Phillips went on the block too.

In any event, I think in this hypothetical situation, the Reds would have to protect Phillips, because if he was picked, their chances of contending in 2012 take a huge blow. It's not worth the risk of losing Phillips to protect someone like Frasier.

PuffyPig
09-13-2011, 12:51 PM
I can't see any expansion team choosing a 30 something desirable vet in his walk year. Players like that want to go somewhere with winning in sight. Unless a home town situation is involved, I just couldn't see a vet ever agreeing to stick around beyond that one season. Likely, the choosing team would get the right to pay him a lot of money for half a season and then to trade him away for pennies on the dollar. Not a smart way to build a team IMO.

Most expansion teams would pick Phillips and then trade him to a contender for some decent prospects.

Or keep him for a year, and then offer him arbitration and get 2 high picks.

That's the exact way to build a team. You'd end up with two decent prospects for one expansion pick. Talk about good value.

Phillips would be quickly picked as he has real value.