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View Full Version : Joey Votto vs. Jose Bautista



RedsManRick
09-08-2011, 11:21 AM
See the question above. No comment necessary. Share any additional thoughts here: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=91327

Ron Madden
09-09-2011, 03:05 AM
IMHO answering this question is akin to a roll of the dice.

Too many factors come in to play...

I love Joey Votto, would love to see him retire as a Red but I'd rather trade him for high return than let him walk at the end of his current contract.

OesterPoster
09-09-2011, 09:40 AM
It depends if Bautista is playing half his games in GABP. :)

Chip R
09-09-2011, 09:47 AM
Just what we need. Another Votto-Bautista thread.

Blitz Dorsey
09-09-2011, 11:11 AM
Love it. Well done Rick. I hope this is a public poll. (Everyone can see who votes for whom. Accountability.)

kaldaniels
09-09-2011, 12:01 PM
A few things to consider...

Bautista plays in the AL, which generally means he will get more AB's than Joey a year, helping his WAR cause.

Whoever you vote for, I'd say at worst it is a 60-40 propostion either way. Meaning, even though I strongly believe Jose is better and will attain more WAR, there is still a 40 percent chance Votto will come out on top. Goes the other way as well. The outcome of this one question does not make one group smarter than the other.

(Sorry to clutter up the thread with a couple comments Rick)

RED VAN HOT
09-09-2011, 01:14 PM
Although Bautista has put up slightly better numbers over the last two years, I would go with Joey because he is just entering his most productive years. Also, as a 1B he seems less likely to get hurt.

signalhome
09-09-2011, 01:28 PM
A few things to consider...

Bautista plays in the AL, which generally means he will get more AB's than Joey a year, helping his WAR cause.

Whoever you vote for, I'd say at worst it is a 60-40 propostion either way. Meaning, even though I strongly believe Jose is better and will attain more WAR, there is still a 40 percent chance Votto will come out on top. Goes the other way as well. The outcome of this one question does not make one group smarter than the other.

(Sorry to clutter up the thread with a couple comments Rick)

Spot-on. I voted for Bautista, but like you said, it's kind of a 60-40 proposition either way. It's not like I'll even be moderately surprised if Votto ends up being the more productive player over the next two seasons.

Mario-Rijo
09-09-2011, 05:10 PM
A few things to consider...

Bautista plays in the AL, which generally means he will get more AB's than Joey a year, helping his WAR cause.

Whoever you vote for, I'd say at worst it is a 60-40 propostion either way. Meaning, even though I strongly believe Jose is better and will attain more WAR, there is still a 40 percent chance Votto will come out on top. Goes the other way as well. The outcome of this one question does not make one group smarter than the other.

(Sorry to clutter up the thread with a couple comments Rick)

So why even have the poll then if in the end it doesn't mean anything. Some curious position to be taking.

RedsManRick
09-09-2011, 06:03 PM
I agree with those people who say it's basically a toss-up, though I'd put my money on Bautista if I had to guess.

What makes the difference to me is contract. Both guys are signed significantly below market value for players of their caliber. Votto will cost $26.5MM ($30.0 if you include signing bonus) over the next 2 years. He will then be a FA. All signs point to him wanting to test FA, which means that even if you retain him, he'll likely cost $20MM+,

Bautista will cost $28MM over the next two years. But he'll stay at $14MM per through 2015, 2016 if you still want him. That represents a lot more value.

Let's say we keep Votto. In 2013 he walks and we maybe get a draft pick depending on whether the comp system is still around. In 2014 & 15, we've got nothing to show for it, except a healthy chunk of freed up salary. We could take the $17MM we paid Votto in 2013 and step it on a FA who can be expected to put up 4-5 WAR (All-Starish type, think Jayson Werth or Nick Swisher over the last few years)

Bautista put up 7 WAR last year and 8 this year. Let's assume he peaks this year and declines 1 WAR per year moving forward. That's 7 in 2012, 6 in 2013, 5 in 2014 and 4 in 2015. So in 2014 & 15, we'd get 4.5 WAR (on average) for $14MM. Looks to me that we come out ahead unless he falls off a cliff. And if he ages in the more standard .5 WAR/yr fashion, we come out way ahead.

On the Votto side, you get less production today, less downside risk & less upside, tomorrow, but with more flexibility and a draft pick in 2014. I can definitely see arguments either way. For me, given the Reds current talent, I'd trade Votto for Bautista, shift Bautista to LF and Alonso to 1B. The team is better offensively, better defensively, and has a LH-RH middle of the order combo locked up for the next 4 years.

kaldaniels
09-09-2011, 09:15 PM
So why even have the poll then if in the end it doesn't mean anything. Some curious position to be taking.

You seem to be coming after me here for reasons unknown. I made the honest observation that it really could go either way. Some on here and in other Bautista threads act like they are sure that they know what will happen. But the thing is, no one really knows. And I for one am not gonna hold it against either side if they are wrong. We are asking which of 2 top-10 players in baseball will be better the next 2 years. Is it that wrong to acknowledge that it truly could go either way. It is a simple prediction poll, that's all. Not every poll has be a to-the-death cage match. Fair enough?

Mario-Rijo
09-10-2011, 09:07 AM
You seem to be coming after me here for reasons unknown. I made the honest observation that it really could go either way. Some on here and in other Bautista threads act like they are sure that they know what will happen. But the thing is, no one really knows. And I for one am not gonna hold it against either side if they are wrong. We are asking which of 2 top-10 players in baseball will be better the next 2 years. Is it that wrong to acknowledge that it truly could go either way. It is a simple prediction poll, that's all. Not every poll has be a to-the-death cage match. Fair enough?

No not coming after you, at least my intention isn't to pick at you and your opinions specifically. I just happen to think it's interesting that you said the outcome doesn't make one group smarter, which I took to mean doesn't make one group right if they predict the correct outcome. I disagree with that opinion as I have maintained thru all the threads that Bautista isn't better than Votto despite the fact he is currently having a better season. And I believe that yes it is easily predicted which one will be better and therefore more valuable over the next 2 seasons, even given the fact Bautista has a bit of an advantage with PA's.

Let me just put it like this, if this was a conversation about Votto vs. Pujols circa 2 years ago or even a year ago I would agree with you, it could go either way they are both fine hitters of the highest ilk. I don't believe Jose Bautista is of said ilk and thus it's a poor comparison. I realize there is alot of intelligent posters on the other side of the coin but they are not infallable and in this case I believe they can't see the forest for the trees. Not only will Votto blow his doors off next season and beyond but I would venture to say Bautista will be lucky to compete with Jay Bruce in this regard from here on out, that is how confident I am that this won't be going either way.

Again nothing personal towards you just this whole debate stinks if you ask me because public opinion could very well help to get us robbed in the offseason and it makes me sick that no one seems to be able to see it.