PDA

View Full Version : Why has Arroyo gotten a pass this year from Reds management AND Redszone



paulrichjr
09-10-2011, 06:43 PM
Travis Wood pitches bad he gets sent down

Mike Leake pitches good....he gets sent down

Volquez pitches bad...he gets sent down

All of the above also resulted in numerous threads.

Go back to 2010, 2009 and Aaron Harang gets blistered by Redszone and management obviously lost faith at the end


In 2011 Arroyo has been nothing short of horrible but he keeps getting run out there. I know he can't be sent down but he certainly could go in the long man spot or disabled for mono.

Even on Redszone I see very little threads on what to do about Arroyo. So I'm going to ask. What do we do about Arroyo the rest of this year and what where should he be penciled in for next year. I honestly can't see how the Reds can even count on him as one of the 5 even though he makes a ton of money.

dougdirt
09-10-2011, 06:53 PM
Well, for starters, I imagine that most people expected it. Be it that some have been waiting for this balloon to burst for several years or the mono, I think most expected Arroyo to pitch poorly this season.

As for the team.... well, they are paying him a ton of money, so he is going to go out there and pitch, even if he flat out sucks. We are stuck with him because of that terrible extension he got with the trade clause and the money upfront at that point.

As for what we are going to do with him..... I would have DL'd him a long time ago. If for no other reason than rest. But the Reds aren't going to do that.

fearofpopvol1
09-10-2011, 07:06 PM
I don't think he's gotten a pass from those at RZ, I've seen plenty of people critical. Now, I'll grant you that there seem to be less "Arroyo sucks" threads or anything similar, but maybe the mono has afforded him a longer rope. Especially since he has pitched a lot of good innings for the Reds.

As for the management/organization angle, I think Doug's assessment is right.

Patrick Bateman
09-10-2011, 07:11 PM
I think it's because Redszone has accepted that the Reds will likely run the course with Arroyo.

Most people would not have signed him to the extension.

Most people would likely not be penciling him into the rotation next year. And I think that's understood, not much debate about it.

Meanwhile, I think it's also accepted that the Reds disagree based on their style of management and something we are going to have to live with until the Reds make the decision on their own.

mth123
09-10-2011, 07:18 PM
Arroyo has had mono and just doesn't seem to have any "oomph" this season. Last time out he went 8 good innings and today he gets shelled. Just doesn't have the bounce back IMO. I think he could be better in 2012. The Reds probably won't have 5 better guys unless they go out and get at least 2. Three if dealing Bailey is required to get other parts.

If there is an axe to grind, it's with the idiot who extended him IMO.

RedsManRick
09-10-2011, 07:29 PM
He is who we thought he was, plus a few extra homers.

Blitz Dorsey
09-10-2011, 07:49 PM
And let's not forget: While all of us (or at least the vast majority) knew it was a mistake to extend Arroyo's contract for three years instead of just picking up his 2011 option, the fact of the matter is Bronson has earned a lot of respect inside the organization. That tends to happen when you never miss a start and pitch 200+ innings every year (usually with a decent ERA and W-L record).

The other guys mentioned hadn't earned capital inside the organization (and from the fanbase) for years of quality service. Bronson is a gamer and people respect that. We also like knowing we traded the worthless Wily Mo Pena for him. It almost makes up for trading Josh Hamilton for Volquez. (OK, not even close, but at least we did make a great trade for once.)

And when you say he's gotten a pass from fans, I'm not sure that's really accurate. Every Reds fan I know b1tches about Arroyo. Even my boss whines about him ... and my boss is a good guy. What's funny is my boss thinks he's this huge Reds fan but didn't even realize Arroyo was signed through 2013 until I told him a month or two ago. He thought his contract ran out after this season. It should be running out after this season if Walt just would have picked up his '11 option like he should have ... but that's a moot point.

nate
09-10-2011, 07:57 PM
I think Arroyo's performance this season has been the worst out of any other player. To me, he usually manages to rope-a-dope his peripherals into a nice to salvageable season. I think this year we've seen what happens when he no longer has "the magic."

I don't think he's as bad as he's pitched this year due to the bout with mono. However, I think his true ability going forward will be closer to what we've seen this year than what we've seen in his previous years with the Reds.

In short, I'm revoking his pass.

mbgrayson
09-10-2011, 09:16 PM
Arroyo's latest contract is looking 'Miltonesque'....

Today he tied Milton's all time Reds HR record, and now we have a contract with him for 2012 and 2013 that may rival what we paid Milton for poor production in 2005, 2006, and 2007.


December 27, 2004:
Free agent Eric Milton and Cincinnati agreed to a $25.5 million, three-year deal Monday as the Reds kept revamping their pitching staff.

Milton, 29, led Philadelphia in wins, starts and strikeouts last season, going 14-6 with a 4.75 ERA in 34 starts with 171 strikeouts. (and gave up 43 HRs that year for the Phils)

Milton's stats (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/miltoer01.shtml):
2005 Age 29, 186 IP, 8 wins, 15 losses, 6.47 ERA, 40 HRs allowed, 1.55 WHIP.
2006 Age 30, 152 IP, 8 wins, 8 losses, 5.19 ERA, 29 HRs allowed, 1.34 WHIP.
2007 Age 31, 31 IP, 0 wins, 4 losses, 5.17 ERA, 4 HRs allowed, 1.53 WHIP.

Arroyo has at least had several good years for the Reds, and hopefully will pitch better in the future w/o being plagued with the after effects of mono. We shall see, whether we want to or not. He is almost untradeable due to his deferred money becoming due immediately if he is traded.

RedsManRick
09-10-2011, 09:21 PM
Does mono last 6 months? Yeah, his fastball is down another MPH to a lame 87, but it's not like he was ever blowing guys away.

The only differences between Arroyo this year and Arroyo last year is he's had a real high HR/FB rate and his batted ball luck has regressed to normal.

People who expected him to continue putting up a 4.00 ERA were simply fooling themselves. Put a flyball pitcher who doesn't miss bats in a small park and this is what happens when he's not lucky.

remdog
09-10-2011, 09:24 PM
Instead of going to a 6 man rotation the Reds should just shut Arroyo down and let him rest. We are, effectively, stuck with him for another two years so let's get him started on resting up.

Rem

cincrazy
09-10-2011, 09:35 PM
Combination of things:

1. Most people expected it.

2. His bout with mono.

3. He's been a very good pitcher for us for a very long time, and has been a staple of the organization since his arrival from Boston. I don't think Arroyo's gotten a free pass around here lately, but people are a lot less likely to turn on him.

Harang was expected to be our "ace," hence the reaction was more extreme when he flopped.

marcshoe
09-10-2011, 09:49 PM
Thing is that most people have expected the "regression" because they haven't been able to accept Arroyo's successes, which have come because he's the type of pitcher who relies on deception and location rather than missing bats. His periphials have always indicated that this was who he was, but Arroyo's a bit of an outlier because of the way he pitches. The numbers that for most pictures indicate who they really are insted have served to hide Arroyo's abilities.

Because of that, the season he's had has been put down to the idea that he's rally always been like this instead of acknowledging that he has fallen off this year because of his refusal to recognize the effects of his illness, possibly combined with the natural aging process.

As I said on another thread, Arroyo's season has been a prime example of why the Reds' medical department needs to be more aggressive when it comes to diagnoses and more insistent when it comes to treatment.

mbgrayson
09-10-2011, 10:01 PM
Does mono last 6 months? Yeah, his fastball is down another MPH to a lame 87, but it's not like he was ever blowing guys away.




How long does Epstein Barr virus (mononucleosis or glandular fever) last?
Symptoms of the Epstein Barr virus that causes mononucleosis or glandular fever, usually last from 1 – 4 weeks, although some cases may last months. Studies amongst university populations have estimated that 20% of mononucleosis patients return to work within one week, 50% within 2 weeks.
It is estimated that about half of those who initially experience symptoms have ongoing symptoms two months after infection. At three months, about one in three sufferers reports symptoms, and at six months the figure is about one in ten. Twenty-four months after infection a small percentage of people still report symptoms, predominantly ongoing fatigue, although sore throat, swollen glands, muscle aches and low grade fever can linger.

Reds1
09-10-2011, 10:47 PM
I've not complained about him on here, but I do to my friend. My friend always backs him up talking about his past records, etc. Yes, he has a point, but I still don't have to like him out there, but I've come to the fact that he is going to be here and he was pitching better of late until today. I just wonder if his money lasted longer because he never really took a break and I've also heard talk of his bad back this year. He's so into not missing a start that I think he's pitching when he needs to rest. This is a manager fault though. Arroyo is a gamer and I don't blame him for going out there, but I can blame Dusty :)

Scrap Irony
09-10-2011, 11:23 PM
He's one of the primary reasons this team has struggled the way it has.

The 2010 Arroyo has the Reds in second place right now, with meaningful games left to be played.

That said, because of the mono, Redszone fans may not know exactly why Arroyo is getting toasted right now.

He could be worn out. Pitching 220 innings a year-- especially with marginal stuff-- for a decade or so tends to do that, as does Father Time. (The guy is 34, after all.) He could very well be toast.

On the other hand, it could be mono that derailed him for a year. He's been marginally better in the second half of the season, with only two stinker performances. He just finished a month that looked solid and had his best start before today. With an offseason to rest, perhaps he gains back that mph he lost on his fastball and becomes the MOR starter he's being paid as.

Point is, you can't really know which reason is behind Arroyo's season and many posters on Redszone are knowledgable enough not to cast stones at a guy that could very well post another 2010 in 2012.

It sucks not knowing which Arroyo will show up-- and the Reds are stuck with him, there's little doubt of that. mth, at the beginning of the year, insisted this Cincinnati starting staff was full of questions. Well, in 2011, most of those questions had answers that ranged from "not yet" to "probably not" to "not this year".

Only Cueto (and, to a lesser extent, Leake) showed positive results. Perhaps Bailey once again closes strong in September to give hope that he's again turned a corner. (Then again, he's supposedly turned so many corners, he's in a maze Dedaleus would have problems conquering.) Perhaps Volquez turns it on and makes like it's April of 2007 to further muddy the starting waters. And perhaps Arroyo is only tired from mono and not toast from too many curve balls.

Griffey012
09-10-2011, 11:32 PM
I think there are no "Arroyo Sucks" type of threads because there would be nothing to debate, there is no denying it that this season he has really hurt this team. I still like Arroyo and think he has a place in the rotation next year and after, I just hope this year was more of a fluke.

Unassisted
09-10-2011, 11:33 PM
Fay says that Arroyo won't consent to being DLed with a phantom injury/ailment because he is immensely proud of having never been DLed in his ML career. So that rules out that option.

Someone made the point in an earlier Arroyo thread that mono symptoms don't go away without rest. Pitching every fifth day and workouts do not constitute "rest," so Arroyo cannot fully recover while in the rotation during the season.

So, it's Arroyo's own prideful fault.

kaldaniels
09-10-2011, 11:42 PM
The Reds are 13-16 in games Arroyo has started. Better than I thought it would be. Doesn't change the fact that he has been terrible this season.

WVRedsFan
09-11-2011, 01:09 AM
Fay says that Arroyo won't consent to being DLed with a phantom injury/ailment because he is immensely proud of having never been DLed in his ML career. So that rules out that option.

Someone made the point in an earlier Arroyo thread that mono symptoms don't go away without rest. Pitching every fifth day and workouts do not constitute "rest," so Arroyo cannot fully recover while in the rotation during the season.

So, it's Arroyo's own prideful fault.But I look at it like this. If one of my important employees had pneumonia, but wanted to stay there because they hadn't missed a day in their career for sickness, I would send them home and tell them that it's in the best interest of the organization that they not work. What is it about MLB organizations? They play inferior players because they make a lot of money. They listen to players that are obviously not able to compete because they're afraid they'll hurt the player's feelings. How lame. Bronson needs to be shut down so he can get better. To torment with Dusty's pro-player organisation and whoever else made this desision.

PickOff
09-11-2011, 08:47 AM
The only differences between Arroyo this year and Arroyo last year is he's had a real high HR/FB rate and his batted ball luck has regressed to normal.

That is most of it, but he is also giving up more hits and walking less people. His strike % is in line, but his contact percentage is up quite a bit. Batters are also swinging at more of his pitches. Says that 1 mph in velocity and/or lack of movement are also contributors.

traderumor
09-11-2011, 09:15 AM
Guys have bad years, whatever the explanation. Arroyo has been a mainstay and was never expected to be an ace. Plus, on any given night, he can still go out and spin a gem, even in this bad season.

mbgrayson
09-11-2011, 12:50 PM
Fay says that Arroyo won't consent to being DLed with a phantom injury/ailment because he is immensely proud of having never been DLed in his ML career. So that rules out that option.

Someone made the point in an earlier Arroyo thread that mono symptoms don't go away without rest. Pitching every fifth day and workouts do not constitute "rest," so Arroyo cannot fully recover while in the rotation during the season.

So, it's Arroyo's own prideful fault.

Agreed.

It is worth noting that after September 1st, the DL won't be used except for teams making a spot for their playoff roster. On teams like the Reds this year, being put on the DL after 9/1/11 does nobody any good. Any player on the 40 man roster can play. The DL is mostly a creature of the 25 man roster from April through August. It is too late and pointless to put Bronson on the DL now. (I suppose the exception would be the 60 day list, since that allows you to add the slot onto the 40 man roster).

lollipopcurve
09-12-2011, 10:33 AM
Maybe not an elephant in the room, but more like a hippo that is still ballooning.

The mono has been the explanation all year. Not really working for me at this point. They absolutely must consider other options next year if he comes into the season throwing 86-87 -- or else they risk losing credibility among the guys battling for a rotation spot. Arroyo has been very fortunate they haven't yanked him this year.

marcshoe
09-12-2011, 02:46 PM
That's the thing--even though the mono may have been the factor that began this year's problems,he's aging, which means not only will he have a harder time bouncing back, but an age-precipitated decline could be imminent. Spring Training next year, the Reds have to be actively watching him. They can't just go into automatic vet mode and decide that they know what they have with him and evaluation is for the younger guys. To be blunt, at this point the Reds have no idea what they have in Bronson. I'm a big fan of his, but he has to be evaluated honestly. At this point in the team's development, they should be focused in on doing what will give the team the best chance to win.

Arroyo was ticketed to be a fifth starter/bullpen guy when the Reds got him, iirc. If they need to put him in the bullpen and let him work his way back in next year, it isn't a major insult; it's just putting him in the role that helps the team the most.

Roy Tucker
09-12-2011, 03:00 PM
It's because he's a funky dude.

Slack gets cut to funky dudes.

marcshoe
09-12-2011, 03:03 PM
It's because he's a funky dude.

Slack gets cut to funky dudes.


As it should


http://cdn.mos.musicradar.com/images/Blogs/Michael/101-trivia/bootsy-collins-250-100-250-70.jpg

membengal
09-13-2011, 06:43 AM
Patrick Bateman earlier in the thread and others have nailed it.

As have those who are pointing the finger at Walt, as this is yet another one of his many mis-steps this past off-season and season.

Not much more to say about it and not much that can be done about it.

Blitz Dorsey
09-13-2011, 08:06 AM
I also fully support Bronson going back on whatever he was quoted as saying made him feel "like a monster." I mean, as long as he doesn't get caught, of course.

Too soon?

mdccclxix
09-13-2011, 01:39 PM
It IS mandatory that the Reds carry at least one big bad contract, it makes them feel all big league right? :laugh:

Here's hoping Bronson ratchets up that fastball to 91-92 next year, post-mono.

mbgrayson
09-16-2011, 08:45 PM
In the TV broadcast tonight, Chris Welsh mentioned that not only has Bronson had to try to overcome mono, but he has had to deal with carpel tunnel syndrome, and that his back has been bad enough to need an epidural injection.

I hadn't heard all this before....Maybe he could be better next year if all these ailments are under control.

SirFelixCat
09-16-2011, 09:03 PM
In the TV broadcast tonight, Chris Welsh mentioned that not only has Bronson had to try to overcome mon, but he has had to deal with carpel tunnel syndrome, and tha the his back has been bad enough to need an epidural injection.

I hadn't heard all this before....Maybe he could be better next year if all these ailments are under control.

I hadn't heard this either. If true, this is just an absolute indictment on management allowing him to continue to pitch.

Pride be damned, it's what is best for the team and Arroyo ain't best for the team.

Ask Leake about pride and that he hadn't tasted the minors before being sent down earlier this year. And he came back and was pretty damn good.

Shame on Arroyo and management.

westofyou
09-16-2011, 09:26 PM
The man was telegraphing it.


http://redlegnation.com/2011/07/22/chasing-eric-milton/


Concerning 40 HRs allowed, Ramon Ortiz achieved the feat in 2002 and lucky for us Reds fans he too was slotted in the Reds rotation in 2005 with Milton, who eventually allowed 34 HRs (good enough for 4th worst in team history). Milton of course is first with his 40, easily eclipsing former gopher ball specialist Tom Browning’s 36.

The one thing about Milton in 2004 that completely eluded O’Brien was the rate he allowed home runs, allowing a HR every 20 batters faced. In comparison, Robin Roberts 1956 season has him allowing 46 home runs, but at a rate of 1 every 26.7 batters. Jose Lima’s 1/18.6 rate is the worst on the list below.

Here are the guys in the club!!


HOMERUNS YEAR HR BFP IP
1 Bert Blyleven 1986 50 1126 271.2
2 Jose Lima 2000 48 895 196.1
T3 Bert Blyleven 1987 46 1122 267
T3 Robin Roberts 1956 46 1228 297
5 Jamie Moyer 2004 44 888 202
T6 Eric Milton 2004 43 862 201
T6 Pedro Ramos 1957 43 1011 231
8 Denny McLain 1966 42 1080 264
T9 Rick Helling 1999 41 943 219.1
T9 Robin Roberts 1955 41 1256 305
T9 Phil Niekro 1979 41 1436 342
T12 Orlando Pena 1964 40 955 219
T12 Bill Gullickson 1987 40 896 213
T12 Jack Morris 1986 40 1092 267
T12 Brad Radke 1996 40 973 232
T12 Ramon Ortiz 2002 40 896 217.1
T12 Ferguson Jenkins 1979 40 1089 259
T12 Eric Milton 2005 40 855 186.1
T12 Robin Roberts 1957 40 1033 250
T12 Phil Niekro 1970 40 980 229.2
T12 Ralph Terry 1962 40 1191 299
T12 Shawn Boskie 1996 40 860 189.1


Of course, this plays into this current Reds season… after 19 starts Bronson Arroyo has allowed 26 HRs. Last season, he “only” allowed 29. Arroyo currently averages a HR every 19.5 batters he faces, which is even worse than Eric Milton’s 2005 season with the Reds, which was 1 every 21.4 batters faced.

At the current pace, by seasons end, Arroyo would allow 43 HRs, and his HR allowed per batter rate would eclipse not only Milton’s aforementioned rate but also the 2000 version of Rob Bell whose insanely pitiful rate of 1 HR allowed for every 19.35 batters faced could be the worst in team history for those who have allowed 20 HRs a season or more.

Tonight he's at a HR every 17.44 batters, remember Jose Lima’s 1/18.6 rate is the worst on the list above.

CesarGeronimo
09-16-2011, 09:37 PM
I hadn't heard this either. If true, this is just an absolute indictment on management allowing him to continue to pitch.

Pride be damned, it's what is best for the team and Arroyo ain't best for the team.

Ask Leake about pride and that he hadn't tasted the minors before being sent down earlier this year. And he came back and was pretty damn good.

Shame on Arroyo and management.

Dusty is just letting Bronson get his numbers.

westofyou
09-16-2011, 09:40 PM
Dusty is just letting Bronson get his numbers.
The classic "Be careful what you wish for" scenario.

For every Yin is a Yang.

marcshoe
09-16-2011, 10:23 PM
I really don't understand a multi-million dollar organization letting this happen. Bronson's hurting the team and himself by refusing to listen to his body when it tells him to take a break. The team, however, is under no obligation to continue to send him to the mound every fifth day. It's absurd that something as important as the basic physical ability to pitch is left up to the player.

Ron Madden
09-17-2011, 03:35 AM
To hell with Bronson's future well being or what's best for the team.

Gotta keep that never missed a start streak alive. :(

Blitz Dorsey
09-17-2011, 10:26 AM
This is the same club that gave Arroyo a three-year extension instead of just picking up his one-year option (which was the obvious move to make). This should come as a surprise to no one. The Reds are more concerned with massaging egos than they are winning baseball games. Not always, but a lot of times it sure feels that way.

BuckeyeRedleg
09-17-2011, 05:52 PM
This is the same club that gave Arroyo a three-year extension instead of just picking up his one-year option (which was the obvious move to make). This should come as a surprise to no one. The Reds are more concerned with massaging egos than they are winning baseball games. Not always, but a lot of times it sure feels that way.

Yep. Let's see what they do with Cordero this off-season. If they re-sign him and pay him more than $2-3M for one year, they haven't learned anything.