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View Full Version : Reds considering extending Cordero's contract



Ron Madden
09-11-2011, 03:21 PM
Walt says an extension is possible.

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2011/09/11/reds-will-consider-extending-cordero/

Tom Servo
09-11-2011, 03:32 PM
http://desmond.imageshack.us/Himg262/scaled.php?server=262&filename=wtfb.gif&res=medium

RedsManRick
09-11-2011, 03:38 PM
I hear they're going to model it after Arroyo's.

Ron Madden
09-11-2011, 03:40 PM
I hear they're going to model it after Arroyo's.

Stop! You are scarring me. ;)

corkedbat
09-11-2011, 03:42 PM
Nooooo! He's 37 and missing bats much less frequently. He actually was somewhat better this year than expected, but don't press your luck. If you have to spend money on a closer, spend it on someone younger with more upside.

OnBaseMachine
09-11-2011, 03:46 PM
Based on what he's did for the Reds in the last 12+ months, I'm guessing Walt is still a big fan of the Cardinals because he's doing his very best to make sure the Reds are no longer threats to win the division in the near future.

Kc61
09-11-2011, 04:49 PM
The failure of Masset and other internal options make this more likely IMO.

I could se a two year deal, $7.5 MM per year. Would give time for Boxberger, the heir apparent, to get ready to close.

I think Coco has been a solid, durable closer. I believe in having a true closer and could live with Coco for another year or two. But not long term and not too expensive.

Will M
09-11-2011, 04:58 PM
I was afraid of this.

Its hard for me to be a Reds fan today. I am at the point of 'wake me when the Reds get a clue'. i can root for a team that has budget issues. but when they combine that with just dumb contracts we are sunk. one playoff appearance every 10-15 years is not enough to get me excited about the team.

757690
09-11-2011, 05:49 PM
So if the Reds turn down Cordero’s option, they may have to sign another closer.

“That’s what we’re trying to determine,” Jocketty said. “That’s one of determining factors. Do we have someone in house? Or do we have to go out and get someone?”

I think it's obvious from the rest of the article that Jocketty would say that selling Cordero to the Carp in Japan is a possibility.

I got nothing from that article other than Jocketty, as usual, will not discuss what he might do, and is just saying everything at this point is a possibility.

CTA513
09-11-2011, 05:50 PM
I hear they're going to model it after Arroyo's.

:beerme:

WMR
09-11-2011, 08:04 PM
I hear they're going to model it after Arroyo's.

Great line.

wlf WV
09-11-2011, 08:13 PM
I think it's obvious from the rest of the article that Jocketty would say that selling Cordero to the Carp in Japan is a possibility.

I got nothing from that article other than Jocketty, as usual, will not discuss what he might do, and is just saying everything at this point is a possibility.
Exactly,he'll only confuse the subject.

Scrap Irony
09-11-2011, 08:15 PM
I hope they don't do it. I'm guessing Jocketty and company could find a cheaper option from among the many closers who are available.

I'm also guessing that this is one of those business models wherein the Reds tell tehir casual fans, "Look how much we care, Cincinnati-- we re-signed our great closer!"

I'm hoping Jocketty and company see the Arroyo extension and how he fell apart this season.

I'm also hoping Jocketty and company see that Cordero has been remarkably lucky this season.

I'm also hoping Jocketty and company understand that they could buy two or three arms (at least) that have a good chance to be just as effective as Cordero as closer.

I'm also hoping Jocketty and company see Boxberger as a closer sooner rather than later.

edabbs44
09-11-2011, 08:24 PM
Not sure that we can overreact to this just yet.

JaxRed
09-11-2011, 08:30 PM
I was afraid of this.

Its hard for me to be a Reds fan today. I am at the point of 'wake me when the Reds get a clue'. i can root for a team that has budget issues. but when they combine that with just dumb contracts we are sunk. one playoff appearance every 10-15 years is not enough to get me excited about the team.

This.

edabbs44
09-11-2011, 08:42 PM
I was afraid of this.

Its hard for me to be a Reds fan today. I am at the point of 'wake me when the Reds get a clue'. i can root for a team that has budget issues. but when they combine that with just dumb contracts we are sunk. one playoff appearance every 10-15 years is not enough to get me excited about the team.

How did you make the leap to this being a dumb contract?

Will M
09-11-2011, 09:03 PM
How did you make the leap to this being a dumb contract?

he is 36 years old. he has an xFIP of 3.90 and a K rate of 5.74/9 innings. all of that should tell the team to look elsewhere. now if the team were going to sign him for a 1 year deal for $2M and have him compete for the 9th inning job then I'd be ok with that. but i'd be shocked, shocked, if that is the kind of contract & role the Reds are thinking about when we hear this rumor.

vic715
09-11-2011, 09:42 PM
I wouldn't mind bringing him back but I also have to wonder if any one else will give him an offer over 5 million.If I'm Jocketty I'd be tempted to see how much he's gonna bring on the open market at his age.I'd offer him 4 mill for next year and let it go.

Slyder
09-11-2011, 10:35 PM
If he's willing to come back at severe pay cut I wouldn't mind him coming back to compete but if he's wanting anything more or multiple years let someone else overpay for him.

PuffyPig
09-11-2011, 10:38 PM
Not sure that we can overreact to this just yet.

No, this.

Patrick Bateman
09-11-2011, 10:40 PM
How did you make the leap to this being a dumb contract?

Right.

Jock literally said nothing in that statement, he simply suggested he was considering it.

If Coco came back for 1 year 2M, probably not the worst thing in the world.

edabbs44
09-11-2011, 10:50 PM
Right.

Jock literally said nothing in that statement, he simply suggested he was considering it.

If Coco came back for 1 year 2M, probably not the worst thing in the world.

That was my point exactly. If he said "Hey, we want to make him the richest reliever in the game...again", I'd agree.

Ron Madden
09-11-2011, 10:59 PM
John Fay reported that the Reds were considering extending Cordero's contract and that Walt Jocketty said it is very possible.

We are just discussing that possibility.

edabbs44
09-11-2011, 11:20 PM
John Fay reported that the Reds were considering extending Cordero's contract and that Walt Jocketty said it is very possible.

We are just discussing that possibility.

Right, but callin it a "dumb" contract is kind of aggressive at this stage.

757690
09-11-2011, 11:22 PM
John Fay reported that the Reds were considering extending Cordero's contract and that Walt Jocketty said it is very possible.

We are just discussing that possibility.

I like this thread and discussing the possibility of extending Cordero, however, Jocketty didn't say that extending Cordero was "very possible."

This is the direct quote.


“We’ve discussed it quite a bit,” Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said. “We haven’t made a final decision. Hopefully, we’ll address before the end of the season.”

An extension is a “possibility” Jocketty said.

We don't even know Jocketty's exacts words.

Just for the record, I would be very upset if Cordero was a Red next season, almost no matter the contract. Relievers as good as him should be easy to find for close to the league minimum.

AmarilloRed
09-12-2011, 12:00 AM
He does have a club option for next year at 12 million-no more than we're paying him now. It'd leave the team with very little financial room for arbitration-60 million before any arbitration raises.

Captain Hook
09-12-2011, 12:22 AM
John Fay reported that the Reds were considering extending Cordero's contract and that Walt Jocketty said it is very possible.

We are just discussing that possibility.

It would be foolish not to.Didn't Cordero say that he didn't care about the money?He would be more then useful for the next two years if he's willing to stay for 5 or 6 million.Why wouldn't the Reds keep him if all that's the case?

People hate to admit that Cordero has been one of the, if not the best relievers the Reds have this year.

Ron Madden
09-12-2011, 12:30 AM
It would be foolish not to.Didn't Cordero say that he didn't care about the money?He would be more then useful for the next two years if he's willing to stay for 5 or 6 million.Why wouldn't the Reds keep him if all that's the case?

People hate to admit that Cordero has been one of the, if not the best relievers the Reds have this year.

I'm not sure if I'd offer Coco 5mm a year for 2 years or not. Probably not.

Maybe a 2 year deal with a club option for a 2mm buy out for the second season.

I'd most likely decline his 2012 option and let him go.

,

WVRed
09-12-2011, 12:48 AM
10 minutes of the Price is Right losing horn - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U43Ate3Itjs)

lollipopcurve
09-12-2011, 10:39 AM
I guess I'm waiting for Jocketty to make a tough call against bringing back a vet who has played a key role. You can't do it every time.

PuffyPig
09-12-2011, 11:24 AM
Just for the record, I would be very upset if Cordero was a Red next season, almost no matter the contract. Relievers as good as him should be easy to find for close to the league minimum.

Since Cordero, according to any metric, has been at least a league average reliever (or better) during his time in Cincy, I doubt that league average relievers are easily obtainable at minimum salary.

mbgrayson
09-12-2011, 11:50 AM
Since Cordero, according to any metric, has been at least a league average reliever (or better) during his time in Cincy, I doubt that league average relievers are easily obtainable at minimum salary.

Agreed. The Reds should expect to pay between $2 and $5 million to replace his production. However, small to mid-market teams have no business paying a closer north of $10 million per year, as we have been doing with Cordero.

TRF
09-12-2011, 12:21 PM
Classic Jocketty. get everyone talking about the closer, and btw, pay no attention to the black hole at 3B.

757690
09-12-2011, 01:40 PM
Since Cordero, according to any metric, has been at least a league average reliever (or better) during his time in Cincy, I doubt that league average relievers are easily obtainable at minimum salary.

Good teams produce league average relievers on their own, and don't need to go out and get them. It should be pretty easy to develop guys with enough stuff that they can get outs the first time through the league. The Cardinals and Braves are great at this.

I just don't think a team should ever pay market value for middle relievers.

paulrichjr
09-12-2011, 01:44 PM
Seems like we went from one extreme to the other. Jocketty doesn't seem to like change. Krivs seemed to want to turn the roster over twice a season. Is there a happy medium anywhere out there? If Jocketty ends up doing it, I prefer one year at $5 or less. I would bet money it would be for something over $12 million though (over 2 years). I can't see his agent agreeing to do it for 2 years for less than the option. $6 and $6.5 is my bet.

REDREAD
09-12-2011, 01:52 PM
We don't even know Jocketty's exacts words.

Just for the record, I would be very upset if Cordero was a Red next season, almost no matter the contract. Relievers as good as him should be easy to find for close to the league minimum.

I disagree that an average middle reliever can be found for league minimum, unless you bring him up from your farm system (like Logan's rookie year).
Most reclamation project pitchers seem to be at least 2-3 million/year, unless you get a case like Arrondo where he's released before he hits arb. Even Josh Fogg cost 1 million (IIRC) when the Reds brought him in years ago.

Cordero is not lights out, but I'd have no problem bringing him back on a one year deal if the price is right. If they are really going to push Chapman to the rotation, we aren't likely to find a better option for 5-6 million than Cordero, despite his warts. If you roll the dice on someone like Broxton, maybe he's better, maybe he's worse.

RedsManRick
09-12-2011, 01:55 PM
Classic Jocketty. get everyone talking about the closer, and btw, pay no attention to the black hole at 3B.

The black hole that put up the 3rd most WAR at 3B in the NL this year? That put up more WAR than any OF position (and SS of course)? 3B may not have been a noted strength, but it was not a black hole by any stretch. Despite not getting a ton at the plate, Reds 3B played solid defense all year.

Looking ahead, Scott Rolen is under contract for $6.5MM next year (plus ~$1.5 in signing bonus). He was not healthy for most of 2011, but underwent surgery and has reported feeling as good as he did at the start of 2010. His defense is still plus and we should expect his bat to bounce back to some degree, if not to 2010 levels.

Not that I expect 145 games from him next year, but Rolen should not be written off. He's just 1 year removed for a 5 WAR season. 3B may not be a significant asset in 2011, but as problems go, it's not really up there.

lollipopcurve
09-12-2011, 02:26 PM
Not that I expect 145 games from him next year, but Rolen should not be written off. He's just 1 year removed for a 5 WAR season. 3B may not be a significant asset in 2011, but as problems go, it's not really up there.

Agreed. And I would not ignore Francisco. The kid is going to get better than he is, and with his power and ability to spray the ball, the ceiling is very high. Pretty much the ideal option to have beside Rolen heading into 2012, IMO.

_Sir_Charles_
09-12-2011, 02:37 PM
The failure of Masset and other internal options make this more likely IMO.

I could se a two year deal, $7.5 MM per year. Would give time for Boxberger, the heir apparent, to get ready to close.

I think Coco has been a solid, durable closer. I believe in having a true closer and could live with Coco for another year or two. But not long term and not too expensive.

I agree. However, think of how many "heir apparents" we've seen in the past 3 years or so. I'm not going to plan on Boxberger anymore than I will anybody else. I hate it when we try to force guys into roles before they're ready for them. Let's see what he can do against AAA hitting for a full year, and then we'll see. Masset, Burton, Bray, Arredondo, etc....any of them could turn it around and become a dominant arm in the pen. But without anybody currently reliable for that role...yeah, I'm for bringing back Cordero at a cheaper rate. 1 or 2 years.

TRF
09-12-2011, 02:43 PM
The black hole that put up the 3rd most WAR at 3B in the NL this year? That put up more WAR than any OF position (and SS of course)? 3B may not have been a noted strength, but it was not a black hole by any stretch. Despite not getting a ton at the plate, Reds 3B played solid defense all year.

Looking ahead, Scott Rolen is under contract for $6.5MM next year (plus ~$1.5 in signing bonus). He was not healthy for most of 2011, but underwent surgery and has reported feeling as good as he did at the start of 2010. His defense is still plus and we should expect his bat to bounce back to some degree, if not to 2010 levels.

Not that I expect 145 games from him next year, but Rolen should not be written off. He's just 1 year removed for a 5 WAR season. 3B may not be a significant asset in 2011, but as problems go, it's not really up there.

Do I really need to link to that list of 37 year old 3B again? Expecting Rolen to play like he did in 2010 is wishful thinking at best. And considering the black hole that was SS and LF offensively, another 2011 at 3B doesn't make me tingle. Jocketty has done this his entire tenure as GM in Cincinnati. When the Reds NEEDED a SS, CF was the "problem" Solution? get a name CF like Taveras. (I almost became a Nats fan over that. or was it the Cubs...) When he NEEDED a LF SS became the issue.

Well SS looks to be filled, and while that is somewhat of an unknown, Cozart, healthy elbow permitting seems to be the guy. LF? one of three, with a slight edge IMO to Frazier or Heisey on defense alone. 3B? nada. It'll be Rolen because they will not address the issue. but a Cordero or other FA closer signing will smokescreen it a bit.

I don't actually mind Cordero. He makes it interesting, but he's gotten the job done. He's got a good defense behind him, and this year, he's pitching to it, more GB's than FB's. H'e cut his BB's in half from last year. Hits are down too, largely due to his GB's and the defense behind him. I actually would give him a one year deal, but Walt would offer 2.

and 3B will hopefully be fine.

_Sir_Charles_
09-12-2011, 02:52 PM
Classic Jocketty. get everyone talking about the closer, and btw, pay no attention to the black hole at 3B.

I'd think its fair to say that they're trying to address the 3B problem. Francisco, Frazier, Yonder even. I don't think anybody expected Rolen to stay healthy all year. The bad part was Francisco going down right when he would've had an opportunity to step in. I fully expect to see Rolen become even MORE of a part-time player next year.

dougdirt
09-12-2011, 02:57 PM
Agreed. And I would not ignore Francisco. The kid is going to get better than he is, and with his power and ability to spray the ball, the ceiling is very high. Pretty much the ideal option to have beside Rolen heading into 2012, IMO.

Of course with his plate discipline, his floor is very low too.

PuffyPig
09-12-2011, 03:09 PM
Good teams produce league average relievers on their own, and don't need to go out and get them. It should be pretty easy to develop guys with enough stuff that they can get outs the first time through the league. The Cardinals and Braves are great at this.

I just don't think a team should ever pay market value for middle relievers.

The Cardinals?

The majority of their bullpen over the last decade has come from outside their organization.

Have you forgotten Izzy and Franklin.

When was the last time they had a young LOOGY they developed?

If you go back over the last 20-30 odd years, the Reds have been extremely good at developing bullpen arms. Starters, not so good.

Guacarock
09-12-2011, 03:58 PM
I don't have a problem with extending Cordero if the price is right and the duration of the contract acceptable.

What's the right price? Somewhere in the $5-$6 million per annum range makes sense. Anything more and we should consider signing one of the many FA closers available on the market this winter.

Contract duration? 1-2 years. We cannot repeat the same mistake we made with Arroyo of granting a 3-year extension based on past performance. Once pitchers reach a certain age, and Arroyo and Cordero have both hit that plateau, you cannot simply look toward their past accomplishments but also must make a realistic projection of future value, taking fully into account their inevitable decline.

The other thing to bear in mind if we extend Cordero. As he gets older, Baker will need to show more willingness to pull the plug sooner if Cordero is having a rough outing or showing obvious signs of fatigue. According to Fangraphs, Cordero is tied with the Tigers' Valverde for the fewest "pulls" -- 4 -- among all relief pitchers. Moving forward, that probably can't continue, and certainly not if Cordero becomes less effective.

Ron Madden
09-13-2011, 04:08 AM
I don't have a problem with extending Cordero if the price is right and the duration of the contract acceptable.

What's the right price? Somewhere in the $5-$6 million per annum range makes sense. Anything more and we should consider signing one of the many FA closers available on the market this winter.

Contract duration? 1-2 years. We cannot repeat the same mistake we made with Arroyo of granting a 3-year extension based on past performance. Once pitchers reach a certain age, and Arroyo and Cordero have both hit that plateau, you cannot simply look toward their past accomplishments but also must make a realistic projection of future value, taking fully into account their inevitable decline.

The other thing to bear in mind if we extend Cordero. As he gets older, Baker will need to show more willingness to pull the plug sooner if Cordero is having a rough outing or showing obvious signs of fatigue. According to Fangraphs, Cordero is tied with the Tigers' Valverde for the fewest "pulls" -- 4 -- among all relief pitchers. Moving forward, that probably can't continue, and certainly not if Cordero becomes less effective.

Good Post. :thumbup:

Pretty much sums up my opinion in a nutshell.

WMR
09-13-2011, 04:14 AM
Considering how close to the margins this team is, and how badly they need significant upgrades in other, more pressing areas, spending the sort of money it would take to bring Cordero back, even for only a single season, would be a horrible misappropriation of our ever shrinking payflex.

mth123
09-13-2011, 05:30 AM
Considering how close to the margins this team is, and how badly they need significant upgrades in other, more pressing areas, spending the sort of money it would take to bring Cordero back, even for only a single season, would be a horrible misappropriation of our ever shrinking payflex.

Exactly.

GAC
09-13-2011, 06:10 AM
http://desmond.imageshack.us/Himg262/scaled.php?server=262&filename=wtfb.gif&res=medium

You owe me a keyboard dude! :lol: