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Guacarock
09-12-2011, 03:43 PM
Ken Rosenthal with Fox Sports says the Reds' top winter goal is to acquire a middle-of-the-order bat.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Albert-Pujols-Prince-Fielder-CC-Sabathia-offseason-market-notes-091211

According to Rosenthal, "A left fielder would be one possibility, but the Reds also could seek a third baseman, shortstop or center fielder."

Also, Rosenthal says that the Reds want to keep Alonso in their lineup.

_Sir_Charles_
09-12-2011, 03:45 PM
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/77/Big-eared-townsend-fledermaus.jpg/240px-Big-eared-townsend-fledermaus.jpg

For knocking down infield pop-ups? Sonar to improve outfield defense? Interesting regardless.

marcshoe
09-12-2011, 03:47 PM
Last year I wanted this, but now I think that fitting Alonso into left and putting Mes in the lineup solves the problem. The bigger need is a plug near the top of the rotation. Stating the obvious here.

JaxRed
09-12-2011, 03:49 PM
I think they should look beyond Louisville to fill this need. There are 30 AAA clubs. Why does it have to be a Bat? :)

bucksfan2
09-12-2011, 04:02 PM
Last year I wanted this, but now I think that fitting Alonso into left and putting Mes in the lineup solves the problem. The bigger need is a plug near the top of the rotation. Stating the obvious here.

I don't think Mes will be an upgrade over Hernandez next season. It will be fun to watch him play but lets also remember he will be a rookie, a rookie catcher. Alonso SHOULD get the PT out in LF. Heck he should play in the fall league, the winter leagues, ST, etc. The guy should get all the reps he possibly can get in LF.

With that said and Alonso in LF you now need to focus on getting a legit #1 or #2 into the fold. Unless you can pry a Hanley or Tulo away from their team I don't see much value to trading for a SS. I would rather roll the dice with Cozart. Other than that where are you going to improve? Go get a top tier SP and plan for better things.

Guacarock
09-12-2011, 04:08 PM
I don't think Mes will be an upgrade over Hernandez next season. It will be fun to watch him play but lets also remember he will be a rookie, a rookie catcher. Alonso SHOULD get the PT out in LF. Heck he should play in the fall league, the winter leagues, ST, etc. The guy should get all the reps he possibly can get in LF.

With that said and Alonso in LF you now need to focus on getting a legit #1 or #2 into the fold. Unless you can pry a Hanley or Tulo away from their team I don't see much value to trading for a SS. I would rather roll the dice with Cozart. Other than that where are you going to improve? Go get a top tier SP and plan for better things.

Rosenthal also mentioned CF and 3B as possibilities where the Reds might find a middle-of-the-order bat. Wonder if they are talking again with the Orioles, and now focusing more on Adam Jones or Mark Reynolds instead of Jeremy Guthrie. Or perhaps a slobberknocker deal involving multiple players from both teams trading places.

marcshoe
09-12-2011, 04:17 PM
Don't know why I don't have confidence in Frazier as a solution at third, but I don't. And Francisco, as good as he looks at the plate at times, brings very obvious problems. I still might be satisfied with one or both of them taking the games at third yesterday that Rolen in all honesty can't be counted on to play. Cairo's a great story and a great guy to have on the bench, but you can't put him at third on any regular basis and give yourself the best chance to win.

I'm fine with Cozart at short.

While I agree that Mes can't be counted on to give the Reds the same production Ramon gave them this year, I don't think next year's Ramon can either, and I believe that the presence of a developing Mes in the lineup will give an added oomph of forward progress to the lineup.

The problem I come to at the end of this analysis is this: in order to acquire a top or near-top of the rotation starter, the Reds will need to give something up. They're not going to solve this problem in free agency. What we don't know is how a prospect package for a pitcher would affect the team's lineup needs. You might not be able to solve the problem with future-prospects such as Hamilton--you might have to deal from those the Reds are counting on.

Guacarock
09-12-2011, 04:17 PM
And, let's not forget at SS, the Orioles have J.J. Hardy, who the Reds have previously tried to snag. Could they be making another pass to get him this winter?

Should be interesting off-season!

marcshoe
09-12-2011, 04:19 PM
Hardy with Cozart backing up would be more than acceptable.

wolfboy
09-12-2011, 04:25 PM
I like Alonso and I expect him to be a nice contributor on offense no matter where he ends up. That being said, his .467 BABIP is unsustainable. He's a good hitter, but I wonder if the expectations aren't a little high based on a small sample size.

Rojo
09-12-2011, 04:29 PM
Between Alonso and Heisey, I'm fairly comfortable with LF. My priorities would be strengthening the pen, adding a TOR and adding depth to the IF.

klw
09-12-2011, 04:30 PM
I think they should look beyond Louisville to fill this need. There are 30 AAA clubs. Why does it have to be a Bat? :)

http://instantrimshot.com/classic/?sound=rimshot

Reds1
09-12-2011, 04:37 PM
I"m in the camp for a top pitcher over a top hitter. I think I could live with a platoon Heisey/Alonso in LF and a Rolen/Fransico at 3B with Fraiser/Cairo utility guys. I would like to see another SS like Hardey to go with Cozart and another pen guy, but on my Christmas list a James Shield would be an excellent present.

RedsBaron
09-12-2011, 04:44 PM
I'd rather have a few more quality starting pitchers than I would another bat at this point, although a leadoff hitter and a righthand middle-of-the-order power hitter would be nice.

Mario-Rijo
09-12-2011, 07:01 PM
Ha, I'm sure this is just speculation because the Reds have no intention of going and getting anyone of any magnitude. The surest sign they won't do anything is they will talk like they are.

mth123
09-12-2011, 07:28 PM
Between Alonso and Heisey, I'm fairly comfortable with LF. My priorities would be strengthening the pen, adding a TOR and adding depth to the IF.

Agree in theory, but I'm guessing any deal for a TOR starter is likely to include Alonso and one of Stubbs or Heiesy going the other way.

My big fear is that the Reds are going to move Chapman to the rotation, bring back Cordero, point to Arroyo's mono and declare the pitching staff fixed. If so, I'd guess all those position players will be back and there will be no need to get a bat. Otherwise, I'm guessing LF is the area most in need.

RedsManRick
09-12-2011, 07:28 PM
Are they benching Rolen? If they want to keep Alonso's bat in the lineup, something has to give. My LF target? Hanley Ramirez.

mth123
09-12-2011, 07:33 PM
My dream deal is a 3 way deal with the Rays and White Sox.

Rays get Alonso, Stubbs, Grandal and Masset
White Sox Get BJ Upton and Edinson Volquez
Reds get James Shields and Carlos Quentin

That gets the arm and the bat and its what I believe is necessary to get this team back to the favorite role in the central in 2012.

Will M
09-12-2011, 07:46 PM
My big fear is that the Reds are going to move Chapman to the rotation, bring back Cordero, point to Arroyo's mono and declare the pitching staff fixed.

i don't think fear is the right word. i am expecting this scenario to occur. about every 6 months (offseason and trade dealine) we all get excited about what the Reds could do to improve. then they go out and do nothing. i refuse to get my hopes up. if they actually go out and make a few creative moves to improve then i'll be thrilled. but i am not expecting it.

marcshoe
09-12-2011, 08:03 PM
So, do the Reds have anybody who can play third that can put a little charge in the ball? ;)

Guacarock
09-12-2011, 08:10 PM
My dream deal is a 3 way deal with the Rays and White Sox.

Rays get Alonso, Stubbs, Grandal and Masset
White Sox Get BJ Upton and Edinson Volquez
Reds get James Shields and Carlos Quentin

That gets the arm and the bat and its what I believe is necessary to get this team back to the favorite role in the central in 2012.

That would work. Another quite similar 3-way that might work with the Rays and Marlins.

Rays get Alonso, Stubbs and Sanchez
Marlins get BJ Upton, Volquez and Grandal
Reds get Shields and Bonifacio

Key differences here: Instead of a middle-of-the-order bat like Quentin, we get a switch-hitting lead-off CF in Bonifacio who could also play 2B, LF and 3B, providing us some defensive flexibility. Bonifacio's salary also would be $4-$5 million less than Quentin, so he might fit better into the Reds' budget with us adding Shields' $7 million salary for 2012.

Marlins have not been inclined to move Sanchez, but they have been salivating over Upton, certainly could use Grandal as their future catcher and might see the upside in a young, controllable SP like Volquez.

Rays wouldn't miss Shields with Sanchez in their 2012 rotation, and would have a plus-CF in Stubbs and a power bat in Alonso to replace the departed Upton, not to mention salary savings they could allocate elsewhere.

I could see this three-way getting expanded in other ways as well. Reds, for instance, might want to swap failed SS with the Rays -- we send Janish to them for Brignac, as both guys might need a change of scenery in 2012.

Whether we can swing a three-way or just separate deals, it does seem like we ought to be talking this winter to both Florida clubs.

Benihana
09-12-2011, 08:56 PM
Are they benching Rolen? If they want to keep Alonso's bat in the lineup, something has to give. My LF target? Hanley Ramirez.

How about Hanley at 3B?

HokieRed
09-12-2011, 09:07 PM
I see multiple needs, which is going to make this a very interesting off season and a difficult one for the FO. We need at least two relievers, one solid starter (does not need to be a TOR), and at least one position player who can hit. That's a lot to get done. Will be interesting to see what gets accomplished.

WVRedsFan
09-12-2011, 10:30 PM
Agree in theory, but I'm guessing any deal for a TOR starter is likely to include Alonso and one of Stubbs or Heiesy going the other way.

My big fear is that the Reds are going to move Chapman to the rotation, bring back Cordero, point to Arroyo's mono and declare the pitching staff fixed. If so, I'd guess all those position players will be back and there will be no need to get a bat. Otherwise, I'm guessing LF is the area most in need.You just summed up all of my fears in one paragraph. The other danger is the feeling that Alonso and Francisco are the big bats they need. Maybe in the future, but if they want to win next year, they've got some dealing to do.

Guacarock
09-12-2011, 11:40 PM
I see multiple needs, which is going to make this a very interesting off season and a difficult one for the FO. We need at least two relievers, one solid starter (does not need to be a TOR), and at least one position player who can hit. That's a lot to get done. Will be interesting to see what gets accomplished.

I agree not only with your assessment of our needs, but also that we'll be put to the supreme test to fill all those needs this winter. It's going to be tough, but it can be done if we:

* Shed the contracts of Hernandez, Renteria, Lewis, and possibly Masset, Burton and Volquez, on top of Gomes. End result: About $12 million saved, enough to cover salary increases due to Votto, Cueto, Bruce, Hanigan, Chapman, Alonso, plus arb raises for Bailey, Arredondo and Bray.

* Re-sign Cordero to a more team friendly extension, say, $6 million per instead of the current $12 million. That gives us the flexibility to sign a $2-$3 millon FA pitcher for the pen, and trade for someone else (a solid starter or hitter) who might bump up our salary base another $3-$4 million. Maybe we'll even go hog wild and see the ownership splurge and expand the budget to $84-85 million.

* Deal from our areas of surplus to fill our needs. Do we keep both Frazier and Heisey? Both Alonso and Francisco? Both Stubbs and Sappelt? Both Mesoraco and Grandal? What about Volquez? Wood? Having 5 or 6 ML-ready players we can deal should make it easy to swing at least one or two upgrade trades this winter. But determining the priorities and sorting out the choices will be interesting to watch.

* Finally, could we see a more shocking trade, say, the Reds offering up a once-in-a-lifetime prospect like Chapman to accomplish a here-and-now need like solidifying the rotation or acquiring that reliable middle-of-the-order bat? Probably won't see that happen (it's a conservatively run franchise), but you never know if the stakes are high enough and the return merits the sacrifice, say a mega-star like James Shields.

Again, I'm not expecting that turn of events. I'm more inclined to believe that the Reds brass will instead hedge their bets, and seek a less dominant starter/hitter so other resources (budgetary and player stock) can be used to shore up our remaining gaps. Then again, the front office could always just stand pat like last winter.

But something tells me that isn't happening this year. We've now had more than enough time for our prospect pool to mature. Their trade value isn't likely to get much higher. By now, we ought to know what we've got, who we want to keep and who we'll let go if the right deal materializes.

As HokieRed said, all indicators point to an interesting off-season.

Ron Madden
09-13-2011, 03:34 AM
We need PITCHING!

reds44
09-13-2011, 03:35 AM
Alonso isn't going to be on this team unless he's playing 1st base next year.

mth123
09-13-2011, 05:06 AM
I agree not only with your assessment of our needs, but also that we'll be put to the supreme test to fill all those needs this winter. It's going to be tough, but it can be done if we:

* Shed the contracts of Hernandez, Renteria, Lewis, and possibly Masset, Burton and Volquez, on top of Gomes. End result: About $12 million saved, enough to cover salary increases due to Votto, Cueto, Bruce, Hanigan, Chapman, Alonso, plus arb raises for Bailey, Arredondo and Bray.

* Re-sign Cordero to a more team friendly extension, say, $6 million per instead of the current $12 million. That gives us the flexibility to sign a $2-$3 millon FA pitcher for the pen, and trade for someone else (a solid starter or hitter) who might bump up our salary base another $3-$4 million. Maybe we'll even go hog wild and see the ownership splurge and expand the budget to $84-85 million.

* Deal from our areas of surplus to fill our needs. Do we keep both Frazier and Heisey? Both Alonso and Francisco? Both Stubbs and Sappelt? Both Mesoraco and Grandal? What about Volquez? Wood? Having 5 or 6 ML-ready players we can deal should make it easy to swing at least one or two upgrade trades this winter. But determining the priorities and sorting out the choices will be interesting to watch.

* Finally, could we see a more shocking trade, say, the Reds offering up a once-in-a-lifetime prospect like Chapman to accomplish a here-and-now need like solidifying the rotation or acquiring that reliable middle-of-the-order bat? Probably won't see that happen (it's a conservatively run franchise), but you never know if the stakes are high enough and the return merits the sacrifice, say a mega-star like James Shields.

Again, I'm not expecting that turn of events. I'm more inclined to believe that the Reds brass will instead hedge their bets, and seek a less dominant starter/hitter so other resources (budgetary and player stock) can be used to shore up our remaining gaps. Then again, the front office could always just stand pat like last winter.

But something tells me that isn't happening this year. We've now had more than enough time for our prospect pool to mature. Their trade value isn't likely to get much higher. By now, we ought to know what we've got, who we want to keep and who we'll let go if the right deal materializes.

As HokieRed said, all indicators point to an interesting off-season.

The Reds need a major rotation upgrade. Shields is the most obvious guy who will likely be available and probably affordable. The team needs more than some back end starter who would probably be all that the team could afford if Cordero is brought back. Chapman to the rotation is not the fix for this group. He's just another question mark when certainty is needed. IMO, Chapman should stay in the pen, the team should pass on Cordero and deal off Masset and Volquez to create some payroll room.

The only in house option for LF that would satisfy the need in the line-up is Alonso and I'm guessing he'll either be gone or playing 1B. Heisey is not the answer and only one of Heisey, Stubbs or Sappelt should be in the line-up on a regular basis. If Alonso goes, at minimum the team needs to bring in a LH half of a platoon for LF if not an every day guy. Whoever it is should profile as a mid-order type against RHP if not all the time.

With those priorities in mind, this team simply can not afford to bring back Cordero for anythig more than a nominal $2 Million or so next season and then only if Masset is moved. I'd move both Cordero and Masset and keep Chapman, Ondrusek, Lecure, Arredondo and Bray in the pen and look to find next year's Lecure by giving Wood a bullpen role in 2012. I'd fill the last spot with filler from the minors or a real cheap FA for less than $2 million (maybe a minor league FA) until Boxberger is ready to go. One possibility, if the Reds do go for a reliever, is Jason Isringhausen. He has a history with Walt, has closing experience to allow him to be an emergency fall back/mentor, regained some of his effectiveness and should be cheap. If this team sinks $5 or $6 Million into a reliever, its doomed to 3rd place in 2012 IMO. There is no reason that a Chapman/Boxberger tandem can't be to 2012 what Craig Kimbrel and Johnny Ventors were to 2011. I'd save the bucks for more pressing needs and go with that.

membengal
09-13-2011, 06:47 AM
I think the Reds should target Grienke, the Royals are said to be ready to make him available...

oh, wait.

Will M
09-13-2011, 08:15 AM
I think the Reds should target Grienke, the Royals are said to be ready to make him available...

oh, wait.

lets say the Reds had been able to swing deals similar to what the Brewers did. Greinke/Marcum/Cueto plus gets you into October just as Greinke/Marcum/Gallardo plus won the division for the Brewers.

Guacarock
09-13-2011, 10:31 AM
...this team simply can not afford to bring back Cordero for anything more than a nominal $2 Million or so next season and then only if Masset is moved.

We don't know that yet because we don't know the budgetary ceilings that Walt will have in 2012. Could be the same as this year, or could be $3-$5 million higher.

I say that because we did post one of the best attendance gains among all ML franchises this season -- about 1,700 per game. If you conservatively figure that each of those fans spent about $30 at the ballpark (counting tickets, concessions, souvenirs, parking, etc.), you're talking about an increase in revenues topping $4 million.

True, not all of that money goes to the team and much has to be split with various vendors. But if the ownership takes its share of the gains and plows that money back into the product, Walt might have a little more wiggling room than this season. Time will tell if that's the case, or whether the Reds cap their player budget at the same level as 2011.

lollipopcurve
09-13-2011, 10:39 AM
Back to the original report from Rosenthal....

If he is correct, here's a possible menu of players the team is looking at in search of the middle of order bat:

LF: Berkman
CF: Kemp, Adam Jones
3B: Wright
SS: Ramirez

Am I overlooking another obvious name?

Could be a very interesting deal on the offseason horizon.

REDREAD
09-13-2011, 10:39 AM
I'm not comfortable handing the SS job over to Cozart next year.
Sure, he performed great in his limited playing time, but we are going to have to bring in a veteran SS for insurance/depth again.
I do not want to see Janish on the opening day roster next year.

I agree that we should temper our expectations for Mes next year.
He should be assumed to be the #7/#8 hitter next year, not carry a heavy load on the offense. Any offense he gives us is gravy.

I will be extremely surprised to see Alonso on the team next year.
Heisey and Sappelt are backup OF right now. I would rather not see them planned as starters.

I wouldn't mind packaging Wood, Homer, and/or Volquez in trades either, especially to get a more solid rotation pitcher. Due to lack of options, the Reds are pretty much going to be forced to trade one of these guys.. there's just not enough room (Although maybe Wood still has options?)

I think we will see activity this winter. There's no pressure to keep a division winner intact. We have young players running out of options with no place to play them. Hopefully Cast kicks in a little more money to the payroll too.

_Sir_Charles_
09-13-2011, 10:47 AM
a mega-star like James Shields.

I'm not trying to pick on you specifically Guacarock, but it seems to me that the love-fest for James Shields is getting WAY overblown. They guy has had one good season. One. Career lows in ERA, h/9, hr/9, WHIP. Career highs in IP, Shutouts, CG, K's, W's & K's/9. Is it really a good idea to buy high on this guy? It seems to me that he's a prime candidate to have a spectacular fall from grace next season.

Always Red
09-13-2011, 11:05 AM
The Reds scored 8 runs last night and lost.

Personally, I'd rather see better pitching, but I understand the need for a big bat in the middle of the lineup.

I think one thing for sure- it's going to be a very active offseason, compared to last. It will also be very interesting to see the makeup of this team by next spring.

lollipopcurve
09-13-2011, 11:13 AM
Keep in mind that the goal is to improve the team. Because the pitching on the team may be weaker than the hitting does not mean that the best move available to the team is to get pitching. The market will determine what the best move is.

Guacarock
09-13-2011, 11:26 AM
Back to the original report from Rosenthal....

If he is correct, here's a possible menu of players the team is looking at in search of the middle of order bat:

LF: Berkman
CF: Kemp, Adam Jones
3B: Wright
SS: Ramirez

Am I overlooking another obvious name?

I would add J.J. Hardy to the list at SS since we know the Reds expressed an interest in him earlier this season.

lollipopcurve
09-13-2011, 11:29 AM
I would add J.J. Hardy to the list at SS since we know the Reds expressed an interest in him earlier this season.

Wouldn't call him a middle of the order bat.

Kc61
09-13-2011, 11:30 AM
Reds need a power bat for the middle of the lineup.
Reds need an established starting pitcher.
Reds need to re-stock the bullpen. Cordero, Masset, Ondrusek, Bray are questions IMO.
Reds need some additional lefty hitting on the club, to provide balance.

That's a tall order for one off-season. But that's what is needed on this team.

mdccclxix
09-13-2011, 12:37 PM
Wouldn't call him a middle of the order bat.

The Reds might. See Jonny Gomes, etc.

klw
09-13-2011, 12:38 PM
I would add J.J. Hardy to the list at SS since we know the Reds expressed an interest in him earlier this season.

hardy just signed an extension in July. Why would the Orioles do that and then move him almost right away?

bucksfan2
09-13-2011, 12:48 PM
Back to the original report from Rosenthal....

If he is correct, here's a possible menu of players the team is looking at in search of the middle of order bat:

LF: Berkman
CF: Kemp, Adam Jones
3B: Wright
SS: Ramirez

Am I overlooking another obvious name?

Could be a very interesting deal on the offseason horizon.

At this point in his career I don't consider Berkman an upgrade over Alonso. IMO its not good business to sign an aging player coming off a resurrection year. Berkman was a butcher in RF this season, I don't see his defense getting better.

As much as I would like to see Kemp it just isn't happening. The new owners of the Dodgers won't let that happen. Would Jones be that big of an up grade over Stubbs to give something up of value.

Don't see the Reds improving 3b from outside the organization.

I would go all in for pitching with Alonso in LF. I would be open to any blockbuster deals to add a bonified star caliber player anywhere besides 1b or 2b. I don't see a blockbuster so would go hard after a TOR or #2 type starter and plug Alonso in LF with Heisey and Sappelt as your 4th and 5th OF.

Rojo
09-13-2011, 01:05 PM
I'm not comfortable handing the SS job over to Cozart next year.
Sure, he performed great in his limited playing time, but we are going to have to bring in a veteran SS for insurance/depth again.
I do not want to see Janish on the opening day roster next year.

Added to that is the question marks around Rolen. Adding an infielder isn't a game-changer but it needs to be done.

REDREAD
09-13-2011, 01:12 PM
Added to that is the question marks around Rolen. Adding an infielder isn't a game-changer but it needs to be done.

That's a good point as well.. A solid backup for SS and 3b. Someone to help Cairo out.

TRF
09-13-2011, 01:35 PM
I'm not comfortable handing the SS job over to Cozart next year.
Sure, he performed great in his limited playing time, but we are going to have to bring in a veteran SS for insurance/depth again.
I do not want to see Janish on the opening day roster next year.


.248 .306 .351 .657

That's what your solid veteran brought to the Reds at SS this year.

.263 .303 .354 .657

That is what it brought to the Reds last year.

Do we really think we will be getting some .300. 345. .420 hitting backup SS that can pick it defensively? really? Who?

How about these numbers for a backup?

.260 .338 .385 .723

Janish in 2010 as the backup SS. 200 AB's. With his defense, I'll take that. he's as likely to do that as he is to do what he did this year.

Reds/Flyers Fan
09-13-2011, 02:03 PM
The Reds scored 8 runs last night and lost.

Personally, I'd rather see better pitching, but I understand the need for a big bat in the middle of the lineup.

I think one thing for sure- it's going to be a very active offseason, compared to last. It will also be very interesting to see the makeup of this team by next spring.

Where have we seen this before? Oh yea, last year right about the time the final out of Game 3 of the NLDS was recorded. I would have bet the house that the Reds were going to be active to fix the deficiencies from last year.

That being said, add Kemp in CF and Shields to the top of the rotation, resign Cordero at $6 mil, get Alonso an apartment in Goodyear and have him field about 100 fly balls a day in left and call it an offseason. Then, spend the rest of the winter designing 2012 NL Championship T-shirts. :D

And I'm not sure that I'd consider anyone not currently on the Reds major league roster untouchable at this point, including Grandal and Hamilton. It's time to cash some chips in.

Guacarock
09-13-2011, 02:54 PM
I'm not trying to pick on you specifically Guacarock, but it seems to me that the love-fest for James Shields is getting WAY overblown. They guy has had one good season. One. Career lows in ERA, h/9, hr/9, WHIP. Career highs in IP, Shutouts, CG, K's, W's & K's/9. Is it really a good idea to buy high on this guy? It seems to me that he's a prime candidate to have a spectacular fall from grace next season.

Good points you have raised. Shields is enjoying a career year, and he's been worked hard by Rays, so he could well fall from grace next season or by 2013.

I'm not sold on the idea that if we want a TOR arm that he ought to be our prime candidate. I mention him not because I'm convinced we should go after him exclusively, but simply because the Rays might be willing to trade him. There are few, if any, other pitchers at his current level who could be available in a deal this winter.

Outside of Shields, what other arms might we want to pursue? Depends on what we're after. For instance, I can see the merit in acquiring a fireballer who might be counted on to start 30 games. The Tigers' Scherzer fits that bill. Like Bailey, he's prone to up-and-down streaks, but he has pitched 170 or more innings each of the last three seasons, and does show some flashes of putting it all together (as was presumed when the Diamondbacks originally drafted him 11th, right behind Lincecum). Would the Tigers deal him? Probably not, as they share the Reds' problem of not boasting a reliable rotation, beyond Verlander. Still, I would sound them out, especially if they did put him on the market.

Likewise, the A's Gio Gonzalez holds a lot of appeal. Again, he's pitched 170 or more innings each of the last two seasons, and held his ERA below 3.50 over that stretch. Being a southpaw, he would add a dimension that our rotation currently lacks. The challenge: The A's are rebuilding around him and their other young-gun arms. They have real needs on offense that we could certainly fill with our prospects, but Billy Beane doesn't seem inclined in the least to dismantle his rotation and particularly not his kingpin, Gonzalez.

If we can't pry loose a proven innings-eater, where are we left? No doubt, there are untested but promising young arms to be had, perhaps the Giants' Surkamp or the Nats' Detwiler. If I could play GM, I wouldn't hesitate to swap a Stubbs or an Alonso for the right emerging prospect pitcher. Long-term, that would be the right strategy. But short-term, the looming questions would remain. Will these guys emerge? How long will it take them? Can they go even 150+ innings in a season, or will they kick around, like Bailey, a few years before piecing it all together and realizing their potential.

Given the high costs and great uncertainties that surround every good pitcher, it's little wonder that the Reds might be seeking to improve an alternate way, through the more reliable approach of grabbing a steady, productive bat. Then again, maybe the Reds aren't after a bat at all. This whole middle-of-the-order focus could be a decoy the Reds are planting, so that when they do go after an arm, they don't look so desperate and can swing a better deal.

Slyder
09-13-2011, 03:42 PM
Rosenthal also mentioned CF and 3B as possibilities where the Reds might find a middle-of-the-order bat. Wonder if they are talking again with the Orioles, and now focusing more on Adam Jones or Mark Reynolds instead of Jeremy Guthrie. Or perhaps a slobberknocker deal involving multiple players from both teams trading places.

Are they trying to set the team record in K's so high that no one will be able to EVER approach it again? A lineup including Drew Stubbs and Mark Reynolds thats at least 400 k's out of the box! I would rather live with Francisco or Alonso at third base than to spend resources getting Adam Dunn's little (and less productive) brother.

I wouldn't mind Adam "not Pacman" Jones though for the outfield. Looks like he might be bumping up to the end of his initial 6 win year window, how long would the Reds control his rights for if acquired? I also think leaving the AL East for the more hitter friendly NL Central would push his power numbers up.

Would Stubbs/Jones move to Left Field? Bat Stubbs 7th or 8th and when he gets on let him cause some havoc with his speed?

Slyder
09-13-2011, 03:52 PM
I would add J.J. Hardy to the list at SS since we know the Reds expressed an interest in him earlier this season.

He signed a 2 year extension to stay in Baltimore too.

I want to float a name out there Jimmy Rollins for the top of the order help?

membengal
09-13-2011, 03:55 PM
Are they trying to set the team record in K's so high that no one will be able to EVER approach it again? A lineup including Drew Stubbs and Mark Reynolds thats at least 400 k's out of the box! I would rather live with Francisco or Alonso at third base than to spend resources getting Adam Dunn's little (and less productive) brother.

I wouldn't mind Adam "not Pacman" Jones though for the outfield. Looks like he might be bumping up to the end of his initial 6 win year window, how long would the Reds control his rights for if acquired? I also think leaving the AL East for the more hitter friendly NL Central would push his power numbers up.

Would Stubbs/Jones move to Left Field? Bat Stubbs 7th or 8th and when he gets on let him cause some havoc with his speed?

Reynolds and Stubbs on this team might be the death of Marty and Jeff.

RedsManRick
09-13-2011, 04:07 PM
I want to float a name out there Jimmy Rollins for the top of the order help?

Is he going to be better than Cozart?

He's goign to be 34 and here's what he's done over the last 3 years:

PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA UZR/150 WAR
2009 725 .250 .296 .423 .316 +5 2.9
2010 394 .243 .320 .374 .315 +12 2.5
2011 559 .267 .340 .399 .332 +4 3.5
Total 1678 .254 .316 .404 .322 +6 3

So, .255/.320/.405 (.320 wOBA) with plus defense. That sounds an awful like what we think we'll get from Cozart to me. Obviously there's a higher degree of certainty, but he's not going to be cheap. I think somebody will give him 3/30 or 2/25 (which is fair market price) and I don't think the Reds are really in a position to do that.

Slyder
09-13-2011, 04:17 PM
Reynolds and Stubbs on this team might be the death of Marty and Jeff.

I'm so sick of all the talk about the K's and "not playing the game the right way". I remember one game Reds down by 2 runners first and second with Edwin coming up. He fouls off a bunt looking bad at it and Marty starts letting him have it on the radio, next pitch that ball is in the seats and the games over.

Should Stubbs "remind" people he's got speed every once in a while? Okay maybe, but listening to Marty and Jeff makes me think they want him to do it every freaking time he goes up there. Stubbs has more potential than just being a punch and judy guy which was one of my big complaints with the team this year they tried to cram square pieces into round holes and not working with what they actually have. I think its part of the problems he is having now is because all through the minors he was a middle of the order type bat (usually 6thish if I remember right) and they bring him up and want him to lead off. Add to that you have the reminder from some fans of who he isnt. Plus you have Dusty with his "aggressive mantra" and not "clogging up the bases" added to a bad year and Stubbs is just a holy mess right now.

Its why I want to see something change whether its GM, manager, both, clean house of everyone. I compare what I have seen with Stubbs (and to a lesser extent Alonso) to the use of Geno Smith last year and this year at WVU. Last year the previous coaching staff wanted him to run like he is Pat White, problem was he isn't Pat White. This year the coaching staff is emphasizing with Geno to use his feet to buy time and THROW THE BALL. Difference this year is we put up more points in a half than Stew did in most games even against the sisters of the poor.

Guacarock
09-13-2011, 05:01 PM
Reynolds and Stubbs on this team might be the death of Marty and Jeff.

Fringe benefit!

Seriously, though, here's the status of the three Orioles players we've been discussing:

* 3B Reynolds, due $7.833 million in 2012, club option to extend him to 2013 at $11 million.

* SS Hardy, due $7 million in 2012, and signed at the same rate for 2013 and 2014. Because he just signed his extension, probably wouldn't be a trade candidate this winter, but you never know, as the Orioles have so many holes to fill that they can't really designate many players as "untouchables."

* CF Jones, making $3.250 million this season, has two more arb years remaining.

Given the circumstances and salaries, if the Reds are targeting any of the Orioles, my hunch is it would be Jones. Cheapest contract, youngest player (26), still improving, and could have a breakout season if he played at GABP and the other NL Central bandboxes.

mth123
09-13-2011, 07:14 PM
Back to the original report from Rosenthal....

If he is correct, here's a possible menu of players the team is looking at in search of the middle of order bat:

LF: Berkman
CF: Kemp, Adam Jones
3B: Wright
SS: Ramirez

Am I overlooking another obvious name?

Could be a very interesting deal on the offseason horizon.

Carlos Quentin. Dayan Viciedeo is going to take over in RF next year for the White Sox and Quentin will be in his walk year. With all the money down the drain with Dunn and Rios and a need to bring Buerhle back as a free agent, I could see them moving him to free salary and get something before he walks. He'll make less than $10 Million next year and shouldn't cost too much in talent since he's a rental. Volquez might be a good starting point, especially if Buerhlle walks. Throw in somebody like Denis Phipps and that may be a deal. Heck, Volquez/Heisey ought to get him for sure. I think I'd do that even for a rental.

Ron Madden
09-14-2011, 05:06 AM
The Reds scored 8 runs last night and lost.

Personally, I'd rather see better pitching, but I understand the need for a big bat in the middle of the lineup.

I think one thing for sure- it's going to be a very active offseason, compared to last. It will also be very interesting to see the makeup of this team by next spring.


I agree about the pitching and to a lesser extent the need for another big bat in the order.

If there was one line in your post that I'd change it would be this...

I think one thing for sure- it should be a very active offseason..

.

Always Red
09-14-2011, 07:12 AM
I agree about the pitching and to a lesser extent the need for another big bat in the order.

If there was one line in your post that I'd change it would be this...

I think one thing for sure- it should be a very active offseason..

.

Ron, I think that big bat could be on the team right now; might not be a need to look further.

I think it will be a busy offseason precisely because last offseaon was so lethargic with the disappointing results. Standing pat is not a good idea- especially with this pitching staff.

Mario-Rijo
09-14-2011, 11:44 AM
My dream deal is a 3 way deal with the Rays and White Sox.

Rays get Alonso, Stubbs, Grandal and Masset
White Sox Get BJ Upton and Edinson Volquez
Reds get James Shields and Carlos Quentin

That gets the arm and the bat and its what I believe is necessary to get this team back to the favorite role in the central in 2012.

Pass, I don't get that deal. I do agree about making a deal for Shields, sort of. I don't believe the Rays are gonna give up Shields and Upton for that package. I also think the White Sox are getting off a bit too easy there.

Rays get Alonso, Heisey, Zach Stewart/Travis Wood & Boxberger/Chris Sale or Joseph
White Sox get Upton & Volquez
Reds get Shields & Quentin

I think this deal or something along these lines makes more sense, though don't know if it's still right. Not sure it's enough for anyone but us. But It wouldn't be how I'd go about things either and I believe the Reds wouldn't see alot of reason to include the Sox since I would guess they wouldn't see much difference in the value of Upton and Quentin and Heisey has a shot to be their equal.

My thinking is we are not gonna end up with another starter because we have so many already.

Alonso & an arm say Boxberger or Joseph to Tampa for Upton & Cash makes some sense though. And something tells me Upton could blossom as a Red and under Dusty.

Slyder
09-14-2011, 12:14 PM
Fringe benefit!

Seriously, though, here's the status of the three Orioles players we've been discussing:

* 3B Reynolds, due $7.833 million in 2012, club option to extend him to 2013 at $11 million.

* SS Hardy, due $7 million in 2012, and signed at the same rate for 2013 and 2014. Because he just signed his extension, probably wouldn't be a trade candidate this winter, but you never know, as the Orioles have so many holes to fill that they can't really designate many players as "untouchables."

* CF Jones, making $3.250 million this season, has two more arb years remaining.

Given the circumstances and salaries, if the Reds are targeting any of the Orioles, my hunch is it would be Jones. Cheapest contract, youngest player (26), still improving, and could have a breakout season if he played at GABP and the other NL Central bandboxes.

Pass on Hardy because it would have to be a deal the O's couldn't refuse (read way to F'ing much).

Pass on Reynolds, I don't see him being an upgrade over Francisco.

Jones Yes please!

TRF
09-14-2011, 12:27 PM
How about LF: Alonso
3B: Francisco, with Rolen in often.
CF: Heisey, Stubbs becomes the 4th OF.
SS: Cozart, Janish as the backup.
C Mes and Hanigan splitting time 60-40 go with Hanigan more in 2012
Deal Grandal, Joseph, Corcino, Frazier, for Shields.

Rotation
Cueto
Shields
Leake
Bailey/Volquez (ST Battle)
Arroyo

Degenerate39
09-14-2011, 12:28 PM
Pass, I don't get that deal. I do agree about making a deal for Shields, sort of. I don't believe the Rays are gonna give up Shields and Upton for that package. I also think the White Sox are getting off a bit too easy there.

Rays get Alonso, Heisey, Zach Stewart/Travis Wood & Boxberger/Chris Sale or Joseph
White Sox get Upton & Volquez
Reds get Shields & Quentin

I think this deal or something along these lines makes more sense, though don't know if it's still right. Not sure it's enough for anyone but us. But It wouldn't be how I'd go about things either and I believe the Reds wouldn't see alot of reason to include the Sox since I would guess they wouldn't see much difference in the value of Upton and Quentin and Heisey has a shot to be their equal.

My thinking is we are not gonna end up with another starter because we have so many already.

Alonso & an arm say Boxberger or Joseph to Tampa for Upton & Cash makes some sense though. And something tells me Upton could blossom as a Red and under Dusty.

Wasn't Zach Stewart traded for Scott Rolen?

TRF
09-14-2011, 12:32 PM
Oh, and I'd have Chapman starting in Louisville. If I like the results after 2 months and Arroyo continues to be 2011 Arroyo, I'd DFA him and give the team a chance to at least win games.

mth123
09-14-2011, 12:33 PM
Pass, I don't get that deal. I do agree about making a deal for Shields, sort of. I don't believe the Rays are gonna give up Shields and Upton for that package. I also think the White Sox are getting off a bit too easy there.

Rays get Alonso, Heisey, Zach Stewart/Travis Wood & Boxberger/Chris Sale or Joseph
White Sox get Upton & Volquez
Reds get Shields & Quentin

I think this deal or something along these lines makes more sense, though don't know if it's still right. Not sure it's enough for anyone but us. But It wouldn't be how I'd go about things either and I believe the Reds wouldn't see alot of reason to include the Sox since I would guess they wouldn't see much difference in the value of Upton and Quentin and Heisey has a shot to be their equal.

My thinking is we are not gonna end up with another starter because we have so many already.

Alonso & an arm say Boxberger or Joseph to Tampa for Upton & Cash makes some sense though. And something tells me Upton could blossom as a Red and under Dusty.

Shields is cost controlled and will be the best picher on the market IMO. Getting Alonso, Grandal and Masset addeesses their exact needs. Dumping Upton's likely expensive arb award and substituting Stubbbs (who is not yet arb eligible, is controlled for 4 years, plays better defense and has a similar OPS) is the big win that puts it over the top IMO. As for the Sox getting off easy, they would be getting a pitcher with an ERA near 6.00 and a mediocre defending CF with an OPS in the low .700s, who will make around $6 Million and is a one year rental. If anything that isn't enough for a year of Quentin in the $8 or $9 Million range.

I seriously doubt the Rays would be interested in Wood (but maybe Stewart) since they have at least 6 starters who are more desirable (and Alex Torres may make it 7) already on hand even w/o Shields. They need offense, specifically at 1B, they need a catcher of the future and probably will be looking for a cheaper option than Farnsworth. I'm sure they'd like Boxberger or Sale, but I don't see them getting either guy. The Reds need to send Masset the other way to make the dollars work (or deal him elsewhere) so I just don't see including Boxberger as an option. They may not want Masset though. The payroll in TB is at $41 Million in 2011 and with disappointing attedance may need to be cut further. They'll want to dump Upton as part of any deal IMO and he doesn't really solve the Red's middle of the order problems, hence the Stubbs to TB and Upton to CHI part of the deal. If they would do it for a 4th OF like Heisey, I'd be happy about it, but I'd guess that they value Stubbs a lot more. They'd likely want Sappelt before Heisey IMO.

mth123
09-14-2011, 12:37 PM
How about LF: Alonso
3B: Francisco, with Rolen in often.
CF: Heisey, Stubbs becomes the 4th OF.
SS: Cozart, Janish as the backup.
C Mes and Hanigan splitting time 60-40 go with Hanigan more in 2012
Deal Grandal, Joseph, Corcino, Frazier, for Shields.

Rotation
Cueto
Shields
Leake
Bailey/Volquez (ST Battle)
Arroyo

I'm in if the Rays do it, but IMO there would be no way. I'm also not up for Stubbs as the 4th OF. I think it would be a waste of value so I'd deal him if he doesn't start. Heisey is a 4th OF himself IMO. If Stubbs goes, its Sappelt's job to lose IMO with Heisey as the insurance policy.

Mario-Rijo
09-14-2011, 12:55 PM
Wasn't Zach Stewart traded for Scott Rolen?

Yes and he is now a White Sox player.

marcshoe
09-14-2011, 01:09 PM
How about LF: Alonso
3B: Francisco, with Rolen in often.
CF: Heisey, Stubbs becomes the 4th OF.
SS: Cozart, Janish as the backup.
C Mes and Hanigan splitting time 60-40 go with Hanigan more in 2012
Deal Grandal, Joseph, Corcino, Frazier, for Shields.

Rotation
Cueto
Shields
Leake
Bailey/Volquez (ST Battle)
Arroyo

Not wanting to focus on a small thing here, but I was looking at Bailey's numbers last night, and I'm really inclined to just pencil him into the rotation. I'd probably look at Volquez/Arroyo as the battle here.

But that's not really the point here, I know. No matter what, the Reds need another sure thing in the rotation.

Mario-Rijo
09-14-2011, 01:15 PM
Shields is cost controlled and will be the best picher on the market IMO. Getting Alonso, Grandal and Masset addeesses their exact needs. Dumping Upton's likely expensive arb award and substituting Stubbbs (who is not yet arb eligible, is controlled for 4 years, plays better defense and has a similar OPS) is the big win that puts it over the top IMO. As for the Sox getting off easy, they would be getting a pitcher with an ERA near 6.00 and a mediocre defending CF with an OPS in the low .700s, who will make around $6 Million and is a one year rental. If anything that isn't enough for a year of Quentin in the $8 or $9 Million range.

I seriously doubt the Rays would be interested in Wood (but maybe Stewart) since they have at least 6 starters who are more desirable (and Alex Torres may make it 7) already on hand even w/o Shields. They need offense, specifically at 1B, they need a catcher of the future and probably will be looking for a cheaper option than Farnsworth. I'm sure they'd like Boxberger or Sale, but I don't see them getting either guy. The Reds need to send Masset the other way to make the dollars work (or deal him elsewhere) so I just don't see including Boxberger as an option. They may not want Masset though. The payroll in TB is at $41 Million in 2011 and with disappointing attedance may need to be cut further. They'll want to dump Upton as part of any deal IMO and he doesn't really solve the Red's middle of the order problems, hence the Stubbs to TB and Upton to CHI part of the deal. If they would do it for a 4th OF like Heisey, I'd be happy about it, but I'd guess that they value Stubbs a lot more. They'd likely want Sappelt before Heisey IMO.

I can certainly understand why you'd feel that way, there is some logic to it. That said I don't believe the Rays make any move of an arm without getting a solid arm in return (starting arm). And if they ask for such an arm I believe that would take Stubbs out of play, unless the Rays go for quality instead of quantity and ask for Stubbs a starting arm and a relief arm which could pull it off I suppose. Now when I said a solid arm I also should have noted that I think they would want a young cost controlled one. Perhaps they wouldn't want Wood (though no doubt I think more highly of him than you do), but perhaps getting a much younger one for on down the line is a more likely possibility (Corcino). I don't think Masset will go due to dollars, Tampa will require cheap options.

As far Upton and this goes for any player you don't assume this player is who he is. I think that is a popular theme for a large percentage of baseball fans. Some players are capable of more and Upton IMO is one of those kind of guys. As is Stubbs who I kind of don't see Walt parting with so soon. Sure Quentin is a better hitter and fits into the middle of the lineup, a sure need. But I'm not convinced Walt and company believes that.

Mario-Rijo
09-14-2011, 01:33 PM
Not wanting to focus on a small thing here, but I was looking at Bailey's numbers last night, and I'm really inclined to just pencil him into the rotation. I'd probably look at Volquez/Arroyo as the battle here.

But that's not really the point here, I know. No matter what, the Reds need another sure thing in the rotation.

I would say their option would be Chapman but I'm convinced he will stay right where he is or become our new closer. Just as someone already said Arroyo will be in that rotation as his struggles will be tossed aside due to the Mono.

Bottom line for this team is money so I'd be shocked if we added any to the rotation. I bet they re-sign Willis to another year (maybe even 2 years) and that is about is much as gets done on that front.

Cueto
Arroyo
Bailey
Willis
Leake

With Wood and the usual suspects at AAA for depth.

kaldaniels
09-14-2011, 01:51 PM
I get that Shields should be a target for the Reds. But with that said, what team wouldn't he be a target for? I just feel like Tampa is holding all the cards with him, making what the Reds would have to give up hard to swallow.

Mario-Rijo
09-14-2011, 01:55 PM
Just what I suspect will happen in this off season.

Re-sign Cordero (this will squander a bunch of our available funds).
Re-sign Willis
Deal Volquez (they are done believing in him IMO)

One Caveat BP could be dealt, I can see this happening though I'm not sure I would do it unless it's a clear win for us.

Do nothing else except talk about what we could do. I have said it a hundred times I don't believe this F.O. can determine who has a future & who doesn't and/or aren't willing to spend the funds for upgrades they can see.

Mario-Rijo
09-14-2011, 01:56 PM
I get that Shields should be a target for the Reds. But with that said, what team wouldn't he be a target for? I just feel like Tampa is holding all the cards with him, making what the Reds would have to give up hard to swallow.

And Tampa is very, very good at evaluating talent.

mth123
09-14-2011, 02:47 PM
I can certainly understand why you'd feel that way, there is some logic to it. That said I don't believe the Rays make any move of an arm without getting a solid arm in return (starting arm). And if they ask for such an arm I believe that would take Stubbs out of play, unless the Rays go for quality instead of quantity and ask for Stubbs a starting arm and a relief arm which could pull it off I suppose. Now when I said a solid arm I also should have noted that I think they would want a young cost controlled one. Perhaps they wouldn't want Wood (though no doubt I think more highly of him than you do), but perhaps getting a much younger one for on down the line is a more likely possibility (Corcino). I don't think Masset will go due to dollars, Tampa will require cheap options.

As far Upton and this goes for any player you don't assume this player is who he is. I think that is a popular theme for a large percentage of baseball fans. Some players are capable of more and Upton IMO is one of those kind of guys. As is Stubbs who I kind of don't see Walt parting with so soon. Sure Quentin is a better hitter and fits into the middle of the lineup, a sure need. But I'm not convinced Walt and company believes that.

I think you may be right about what Walt thinks. I did say it was my dream deal. My only thinking is that, if the Reds are going to get the pitcher they need, one of Votto or Alonso is going to have to go in the deal. If so, the middle of the order will again be a bat short. Votto, Bruce and Alonso are the only guys on the roster who would be middle of the order worthy in 2012 IMO. Mesoraco may be down the road and possibly Francisco or Soto at some point, but I sure as heck wouldn't plan my 2012 team with one of then penciled into the 5 hole. So, IMO, if the Reds get an arm, they will have to go get a bat. If they keep the bats they've got, I don't think they'll have the arms to win anything,

As I've said, what I think the Reds will do is move Chapman into the 5 spot in the rotation, point to an Arroyo's mono and an assumed bounce back and declare the rotation fixed. They'll keep Alonso mixing and matching with Heisey and Frazier to boost the offense and spend any payflex bringing back Cordero or some other overpaid relief pitcher. Then they'll finish 3rd or 4th again and wonder why.

Scrap Irony
09-14-2011, 07:27 PM
How about LF: Alonso
3B: Francisco, with Rolen in often.
CF: Heisey, Stubbs becomes the 4th OF.
SS: Cozart, Janish as the backup.
C Mes and Hanigan splitting time 60-40 go with Hanigan more in 2012
Deal Grandal, Joseph, Corcino, Frazier, for Shields.

Rotation
Cueto
Shields
Leake
Bailey/Volquez (ST Battle)
Arroyo

Sold, though I think you'd have to include Stubbs in the deal for Shields for it to be palatable to the Rays. And perhaps Soto as well.

Slyder
09-14-2011, 10:51 PM
Is he going to be better than Cozart?

He's goign to be 34 and here's what he's done over the last 3 years:

PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA UZR/150 WAR
2009 725 .250 .296 .423 .316 +5 2.9
2010 394 .243 .320 .374 .315 +12 2.5
2011 559 .267 .340 .399 .332 +4 3.5
Total 1678 .254 .316 .404 .322 +6 3

So, .255/.320/.405 (.320 wOBA) with plus defense. That sounds an awful like what we think we'll get from Cozart to me. Obviously there's a higher degree of certainty, but he's not going to be cheap. I think somebody will give him 3/30 or 2/25 (which is fair market price) and I don't think the Reds are really in a position to do that.

I'm not saying that he would be better than Cozart but this allows us to push Janish off the roster and gives us some flexibility with the other bench bats as Cozart could play any infield positions (I think) and let us use Cairo more sparingly and keep Cairo in a position to be successful when needed. At what point would you say "too much for Rollins"? Because I don't know if he's going to get that much. What about 2 years 7-9 mil per with some performance bonuses and a 3rd option year for like 11-12 or a 2 mil buyout?

Also Rollins would at least give us a guy who has been successful as a top of the order bat who understands his role is to get on for Votto+ whoever else hits behind him.