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View Full Version : Is MIcah Owings available in a trade again?



Tony Cloninger
09-12-2011, 11:46 PM
I just read where he is 6-0 with a 3.10 ERA?

Exactly what is Price doing here as a pitching coach and when is this disaster of a pitching staff going to be pointed at his lack of developing anyone other than Cueto?

Guacarock
09-13-2011, 12:09 AM
Micah Owings is back with the Diamondbacks, the beneficiary of pitching for a playoff-bound team that is clicking on all cylinders offensively. His 6-0 W-L record is deceptive, as is his 3.10 ERA. His xFIP, for instance, is a much more pedestrian 4.34.

In other words, be careful in viewing him as a legitimate trade target, as he's hasn't improved his K rates, his walk rates, his home run allowed rates, or any other key peripheral areas that suggest he's markedly improved as a pitcher. He's simply in a different environment and he's getting a lucky turn in the spotlight.

As far as Price goes, he has not only helped Cueto, but also seems to have given some solid advice to Leake, Bailey and Chapman. There have been more bullpen woes this season, but that seems attributable to fatigue more than anything else, judging from the first-half and second-half season splits. To prevent that next season, the Reds will need to enter the year with a more solid and healthy rotation and also put some restraints on Baker as far as how often he uses 4-5 relievers nightly. That's a chronic problem, but it's not one originating from Price -- it predates his arrival.

CTA513
09-13-2011, 12:11 AM
If hes available then I hope they pass on it.

cumberlandreds
09-13-2011, 07:08 AM
The Reds already have a pitcher who can hit but can't pitch. So they really don't need Owings.

membengal
09-13-2011, 07:27 AM
Tony wasn't posting that he really wants to target Owings, I think you all other than Guaca missed his larger point, which was to question what happened to the staff in general this year and Price's overall effectiveness as pitching coach.

Tony Cloninger
09-13-2011, 08:54 AM
Tony wasn't posting that he really wants to target Owings, I think you all other than Guaca missed his larger point, which was to question what happened to the staff in general this year and Price's overall effectiveness as pitching coach.

Pretty much yes. I did not have any sarcasm icon at the end.......as I obviously do not think they should trade for him....just more of a "How in the heck is he pitching this good?"

Since I am not very good at understanding what his xFIP is....I did not know he really was not having that good of a year.

The Diamondbacks are flying so low and under everyone radars that it is hard to believe how bad they were thought of to be coming into this year.

traderumor
09-13-2011, 09:13 AM
Before one blames Price for poor performance of the staff overall, I think one needs to settle if there are guys on this staff that aren't simply within a reasonable range of expectations for their talent and track record? Is anyone severely underperforming, or is it simply no one besides Cueto is exceeding their expected performance?

Honestly, I would not be a bit surprised to see that the pitching staff has shaken out to about what it was projected to be by the models.

savafan
09-14-2011, 12:18 AM
Since I am not very good at understanding what his xFIP is....I did not know he really was not having that good of a year.



I don't see how anyone can say that a guy who is undefeated with 6 wins and no losses and an ERA in the low 3s is having a bad year. This is what I hate about the new stats. I think the results should be what matters, and the results show that Owings has been pretty good for Arizona.

dougdirt
09-14-2011, 01:02 AM
I don't see how anyone can say that a guy who is undefeated with 6 wins and no losses and an ERA in the low 3s is having a bad year. This is what I hate about the new stats. I think the results should be what matters, and the results show that Owings has been pretty good for Arizona.

My train of thought is this: ERA tells us what happened, while FIP and xFIP tell us what is likely to happen without improvement from that pitcher. You can luck your way to a lower ERA than expected (or be unlucky to a higher ERA than expected) based on your peripherals for a multitude of reasons. In the long run though, those peripherals are likely to bring you back tot he point of your true talent level. Owings has put up good numbers this season. That doesn't mean he is likely to continue doing so though.

marcshoe
09-14-2011, 01:13 AM
I had good seats for a game that Micah pitched well and won against the Braves in 2009 (he hit a home run that night as well), and I'd swear he was doing it with mirrors. I would guess that, whatever's going on, he's pitching at the right time and having balls hit in the right direction. Guaca mentioned the 4.34 xfip, and honestly, that seems more in line with what Micah pitching well really is.

Here's his fangraphs line, (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4253&position=P)and it's pretty telling. His BABIP, at .242, is down 34 points from his career numbers and 45 points from last season.

When he was a Red I held out hopes that he could be a serviceable pitcher, but I'd be willing to bet he'll never sustain the numbers he's putting up now.

btw, after watching the way Leake finished off his season tonight, I'm going to hold off any criticism of Brian Price. I think he does well when he has good material to work with.

savafan
09-14-2011, 02:47 AM
Owings has put up good numbers this season. That doesn't mean he is likely to continue doing so though.

But it is possible...

wolfboy
09-14-2011, 09:37 AM
But it is possible...

Yes, but part of effectively running an organization means making decisions based upon what's likely more than what's merely possible.

traderumor
09-14-2011, 11:00 AM
But it is possible...Heck, its possible that Kent Bottenfield won 20 games. Then the Angels traded away Jim Edmonds for him. Moral of the story: If I'm making a decision about trading for a guy, I'm gonna lean on projections of future performance. I sure don't want to pay for what a guy has done.

Sidebar: They call paying for what a guy has done "free agency." :)

dougdirt
09-14-2011, 01:52 PM
But it is possible...

Of course it IS possible. But I prefer to play the "most likely" game when running a franchise in my head.

kaldaniels
09-14-2011, 01:55 PM
But it is possible...

That could be said about any prediction made on here. So, for the grand prize, how possible do you think it is? (Let's say a sub-3.75 ERA thru the 2013 season for Owings)

savafan
09-14-2011, 09:11 PM
That could be said about any prediction made on here. So, for the grand prize, how possible do you think it is? (Let's say a sub-3.75 ERA thru the 2013 season for Owings)

Like most things, I'd say it's 50-50. I'm not comfortable making predictions, because you never know what's going to happen. You can bet the bank on an absolute stud who projects to be all-world, but everyone is always an injury away from ruin in this game.

savafan
09-14-2011, 09:17 PM
Heck, its possible that Kent Bottenfield won 20 games. Then the Angels traded away Jim Edmonds for him. Moral of the story: If I'm making a decision about trading for a guy, I'm gonna lean on projections of future performance. I sure don't want to pay for what a guy has done.

Sidebar: They call paying for what a guy has done "free agency." :)

But it's business. I don't know about the places where you guys work, but at my job, my annual review focuses on what I've done. My raise, if I get one, is based on the level of work I've produced in the past. Unfortunately, things happen as we age. Our mind starts to slip, our cognitive and physical skills start to diminish, but our employers tend to pay us for what we've done throughout the years, until they decide that we just can't do the job anymore, or we move on to retirement or greener pastures. Most businesses don't throw a ton of money at a genius kid coming out of high school based on what they think he'll bring to the job, they make him prove it. In the business world, we call that "insane". :p

dougdirt
09-14-2011, 09:58 PM
But it's business. I don't know about the places where you guys work, but at my job, my annual review focuses on what I've done. My raise, if I get one, is based on the level of work I've produced in the past. Unfortunately, things happen as we age. Our mind starts to slip, our cognitive and physical skills start to diminish, but our employers tend to pay us for what we've done throughout the years, until they decide that we just can't do the job anymore, or we move on to retirement or greener pastures. Most businesses don't throw a ton of money at a genius kid coming out of high school based on what they think he'll bring to the job, they make him prove it. In the business world, we call that "insane". :p

The sports world isn't like the normal world. Trying to compare the two simply isn't a good way to make a point.

But businesses do throw tons of money at a genius out of high school. It is called a scholarship, something most other kids don't get. Then out of college, the ones with more potential get more money than the ones who aren't perceived to have as much potential. Stephen Strasburg got the most money ever from the draft. He makes less over his contract than Joey Votto will get in 2013 (in terms of guaranteed money).

With sports though, unlike other areas of life, injuries and age aren't likely to cause your production to fall off of a cliff in a relative short span of time.

savafan
09-14-2011, 10:09 PM
The sports world isn't like the normal world. Trying to compare the two simply isn't a good way to make a point.



Except it is, and refusing to believe that and seeing that's how teams operate all across the major sports doesn't make it less true.

traderumor
09-14-2011, 11:02 PM
But it's business. I don't know about the places where you guys work, but at my job, my annual review focuses on what I've done. My raise, if I get one, is based on the level of work I've produced in the past. Unfortunately, things happen as we age. Our mind starts to slip, our cognitive and physical skills start to diminish, but our employers tend to pay us for what we've done throughout the years, until they decide that we just can't do the job anymore, or we move on to retirement or greener pastures. Most businesses don't throw a ton of money at a genius kid coming out of high school based on what they think he'll bring to the job, they make him prove it. In the business world, we call that "insane". :p
MLB is a business, but it is in an industry called professional sports, which is a unique business, and is not comparable to a business making widgets, or providing a service, or sales when it comes to making "hiring" decisions.

For example, does a "skilled laborer" in "business" make 10 to 20 to 50 fold of what his supervisors make? Does your "annual review" result in guaranteed multi-million dollar contracts? Do you get to negotiate your salary with your employer? Do you get 5, 6, or 7 figure bonuses just to sign on with your employer? Does your supervisor get fired and you keep your job when you do not do your job well? Do you still get paid your full salary by the company if you break your leg while doing your job?

traderumor
09-14-2011, 11:05 PM
Except it is, and refusing to believe that and seeing that's how teams operate all across the major sports doesn't make it less true.So, running a professional sports franchise is like running a Penn Station sandwich franchise?

savafan
09-14-2011, 11:42 PM
MLB is a business, but it is in an industry called professional sports, which is a unique business, and is not comparable to a business making widgets, or providing a service, or sales when it comes to making "hiring" decisions.

For example, does a "skilled laborer" in "business" make 10 to 20 to 50 fold of what his supervisors make? Does your "annual review" result in guaranteed multi-million dollar contracts? Do you get to negotiate your salary with your employer? Do you get 5, 6, or 7 figure bonuses just to sign on with your employer? Does your supervisor get fired and you keep your job when you do not do your job well? Do you still get paid your full salary by the company if you break your leg while doing your job?

The multi-million dollar statement is argumentative, because good businesses pay market value for their employees. At the Waffle House that's about $3 an hour plus tips, and in Major League Baseball it's about $3 million a year (average). I do get to negotiate my salary with my employer. My company has given sign on bonuses. I do still get paid my full salary by the company if I break my leg while doing my job (that's the benefit of being a salaried employee). Now, as for wheter my supervisor gets fired and I keep my job when I don't do it well... I've seen supervisors fired or reassigned due to not utilizing the staff that they have properly. We act like baseball is this special business type that requires a different mindset to understand, and I'm telling you it's not really that different than the business world.

savafan
09-14-2011, 11:44 PM
So, running a professional sports franchise is like running a Penn Station sandwich franchise?

At the lowest common denominator, yes.

traderumor
09-16-2011, 10:17 AM
The multi-million dollar statement is argumentative, because good businesses pay market value for their employees. At the Waffle House that's about $3 an hour plus tips, and in Major League Baseball it's about $3 million a year (average). I do get to negotiate my salary with my employer. My company has given sign on bonuses. I do still get paid my full salary by the company if I break my leg while doing my job (that's the benefit of being a salaried employee). Now, as for wheter my supervisor gets fired and I keep my job when I don't do it well... I've seen supervisors fired or reassigned due to not utilizing the staff that they have properly. We act like baseball is this special business type that requires a different mindset to understand, and I'm telling you it's not really that different than the business world.

Remember what the original issue was: history vs. projections. So, the Waffle House employee: are you real worried about projecting their future performance when the investment is small and they are easily replaceable, and if you have to let them go, you owe them nothing?

With all due respect, I am a businessman, manage a business myself, and see the distinction. So, you aren't telling me anything. Professional sports franchises are a unique industry, and while there are certainly basic business principles that are common with any business, I certainly wouldn't hire a consultant whose philosophy is "a business is a business is a business" and thinks that running a fast food franchise is no different than running a professional sports franchise.


At the lowest common denominator, yes.Which means those things are trivial and don't lend much to being successful in a particular kind of business.

PuffyPig
09-16-2011, 11:02 AM
I don't see how anyone can say that a guy who is undefeated with 6 wins and no losses and an ERA in the low 3s is having a bad year. This is what I hate about the new stats. I think the results should be what matters, and the results show that Owings has been pretty good for Arizona.

Well, the W-L record you can throw out the door, as it's a team stat.

Yes, the stats show he's had good results, but the stats slso show that it's been based on randomness and not exceptional pitching.

marcshoe
09-16-2011, 11:24 AM
The wins can be particularly random because he is working out of the bullpen. He picked up his seventh win Tuesday with one inning against the dodgers in which he walked one and struck out one. His previous win had been in a three-inning stint on August 9. Wins for relievers tend to be almost completely situational, a product of when they happen to pitch.

savafan
09-17-2011, 09:54 PM
I agree that we should throw out win-loss records and look at quality starts for starters instead.