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View Full Version : Cubs eyeing Jocketty, Reds Aramis



Guacarock
09-14-2011, 01:28 PM
Chicago media reports that Reds weighing Aramis at 3B, while Cubs brass might want Jocketty for GM.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/09/aramis-jocketty-lahair.html

reds1869
09-14-2011, 01:43 PM
I'd make that trade. :thumbup:

kaldaniels
09-14-2011, 01:49 PM
I'm skeptical of the Reds going after Aramis.

The Operator
09-14-2011, 02:15 PM
I can see it now. The first ever instance of a GM trading himself to another team.

Unassisted
09-14-2011, 02:20 PM
I have to admit, that's an end-of-Jocketty's-tenure-with-the-Reds scenario that hadn't crossed my mind.

I wonder if MLB would issue some kind of FO hat trick award for serving as GM of 3 different teams in the same division? ;)

Reds/Flyers Fan
09-14-2011, 02:39 PM
If Walt is having thoughts about another team - another division team, no less - do we really want him in charge of making trades and/or signings right now? And could it explain his lack of activity this year?

Benihana
09-14-2011, 02:44 PM
I wouldn't be opposed to going after Aramis. That could then free up a lot of trade chips to go after an affordable SP like Shields or even Pineda.

Question is could the Reds afford it.

Benihana
09-14-2011, 02:49 PM
I'm not sure which would be more dangerous to the Reds, losing Jocketty to the Cubs or watching the Cubs hire Friedman or Beane.

Benihana
09-14-2011, 02:50 PM
I wonder if MLB would issue some kind of FO hat trick award for serving as GM of 3 different teams in the same division? ;)

Same would be true of Ramirez, who would be following in Edmonds' footsteps for the NL Central tour.

RedsManRick
09-14-2011, 03:06 PM
So our solution to having an 37 year old injury prone 3B would be to sign a 34 year old 3B?

bucksfan2
09-14-2011, 03:09 PM
So our solution to having an 37 year old injury prone 3B would be to sign a 34 year old 3B?

You could always trade for Evan Longoria or David Wright. For some reason I don't see those teams trading their franchise players.

Caveat Emperor
09-14-2011, 03:14 PM
I'd make that trade. :thumbup:

If Jocketty leaves Cincinnati, this man is your next GM:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Bavasi

redsmetz
09-14-2011, 03:19 PM
If Jocketty leaves Cincinnati, this man is your next GM:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Bavasi

And you know this how?

Benihana
09-14-2011, 03:57 PM
You could always trade for Evan Longoria or David Wright. For some reason I don't see those teams trading their franchise players.

There is a possibility that David Wright could become available. Of course the Mets would demand an absolute king's ransom in return, and I'm not sure I'd empty the farm for him instead of the Reds' other needs.

traderumor
09-14-2011, 04:28 PM
someone throwing crap on the wall

REDREAD
09-14-2011, 04:28 PM
Since Walt was talked out of retirement by Cast, I just don't see him jumping to another team at this point in his life. I think Cincy is his last stop. Why would he want to go to the Cubs and endure a rebuilding project?
The fact that the writer suggests the Reds are after A Rameriz makes him even less credible. No chance the Reds do that.

Guacarock
09-14-2011, 04:29 PM
Here's a more complete rundown on Aramis Ramirez, his contractual situation with the Cubs and his possible off-season suitors.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/09/potential-suitors-for-aramis-ramirez.html

Kc61
09-14-2011, 04:41 PM
This makes no sense to me. Reds have money invested in Rolen at third base for next year. I can see a cheap guy to alternate with him, maybe from in-house. But how do Ramirez and Rolen mix at third? They don't.

And I can't see Walt starting over with the Cubs at this point, as someone else pointed out.

dfs
09-14-2011, 04:42 PM
"He predicts a payroll in the $120-130MM range."

What my reds could do with that.
How can they be that bad every year with a payroll like that.

RedLegsToday
09-14-2011, 04:53 PM
How can they be that bad every year with a payroll like that.

they should have never ticked off that billy goat. :D

wolfboy
09-14-2011, 04:54 PM
So our solution to having an 37 year old injury prone 3B would be to sign a 34 year old 3B?

A 34 year old 3B that is more expensive and not as good.

RedsManRick
09-14-2011, 04:54 PM
You could always trade for Evan Longoria or David Wright. For some reason I don't see those teams trading their franchise players.

Or you could go with the 37 year old (who is expected to be healthy) and one of our two 3B prospects who are MLB ready.

TRF
09-14-2011, 05:03 PM
Or you could go with the 37 year old (who is expected to be healthy) and one of our two 3B prospects who are MLB ready.


RK PLAYER TEAM AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS
1 Chipper Jones ATL 413 53 117 30 1 17 65 2 2 46 68 .283 .352 .484 .836
2 Geoff Blum ARI 30 6 8 1 0 2 6 0 0 3 7 .267 .353 .500 .853
3 Miguel Cairo CIN 235 32 62 8 2 7 32 2 4 18 34 .264 .331 .404 .735
4 Casey Blake LAD 202 32 51 10 1 4 26 1 2 26 50 .252 .342 .371 .713
5 Omar Vizquel CHW 163 18 40 6 1 0 8 1 2 9 17 .245 .282 .294 .576
6 Miguel Tejada SF 322 28 77 16 0 4 26 4 4 12 35 .239 .270 .326 .596
7 Melvin Mora ARI 127 5 29 6 0 0 16 0 1 2 24 .228 .244 .276 .520

It's becoming my favorite page these days. I don't want Aramis Ramirez. He's a bad fit. Counting on Rolen? bad idea. but I do agree, with the 3B prospects. It'll either be JF or Frazier, Hopefully with a Alonso/Heisey Platoon in LF.

more noise, when what the Reds NEED is an ace SP to go along with Cueto. 2 ace pitchers would be nice. 2 healthy ace pitchers.

Caveat Emperor
09-14-2011, 05:11 PM
And you know this how?

Call it a hunch that Bob C would prefer someone he knows and has worked with (Bavasi is already in the FO).

RedsManRick
09-14-2011, 05:36 PM
RK PLAYER TEAM AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS
1 Chipper Jones ATL 413 53 117 30 1 17 65 2 2 46 68 .283 .352 .484 .836
2 Geoff Blum ARI 30 6 8 1 0 2 6 0 0 3 7 .267 .353 .500 .853
3 Miguel Cairo CIN 235 32 62 8 2 7 32 2 4 18 34 .264 .331 .404 .735
4 Casey Blake LAD 202 32 51 10 1 4 26 1 2 26 50 .252 .342 .371 .713
5 Omar Vizquel CHW 163 18 40 6 1 0 8 1 2 9 17 .245 .282 .294 .576
6 Miguel Tejada SF 322 28 77 16 0 4 26 4 4 12 35 .239 .270 .326 .596
7 Melvin Mora ARI 127 5 29 6 0 0 16 0 1 2 24 .228 .244 .276 .520

It's becoming my favorite page these days. I don't want Aramis Ramirez. He's a bad fit. Counting on Rolen? bad idea. but I do agree, with the 3B prospects. It'll either be JF or Frazier, Hopefully with a Alonso/Heisey Platoon in LF.

more noise, when what the Reds NEED is an ace SP to go along with Cueto. 2 ace pitchers would be nice. 2 healthy ace pitchers.

I'm not sure what that is - active 3B age 37+? Is that really Rolen's cohort? Who of those guys had ever established themselves as having HOF talent? I don't care how Miguel Tejada; he was never Scott Rolen. History shows us that guys tend to follow a comparable arc -- the question is how high the arc goes. The higher it goes, generally speaking, the farther you have to fall -- and the longer you stay productive.

Assuming he's healthy, we have every reason to believe he'll produce decently. And his glove has continued to be excellent even when his bat suffered. On your list, only Vizquel is comparable to Rolen defensively. But let's not compare him to guys who are nowhere near as talented as he is.

Here's what I'm looking at, guys who did what he did at age 35 (or 36).



For single seasons, From 1901 to 2011, From Age 35 to 36, Played 50% of games at 3B, (requiring PA>=300), sorted by greatest Adjusted OPS+
Name OPS+ PA Year Age AVG OBP SLG OPS
1 Chipper Jones 176 534 2008 36 .364 .470 .574 1.044
2 Chipper Jones 165 600 2007 35 .337 .425 .604 1.029
3 Mike Schmidt 152 657 1986 36 .290 .390 .547 .937
4 Wade Boggs 141 434 1994 36 .342 .433 .489 .922
5 Pete Rose 141 759 1976 35 .323 .404 .450 .854
6 Ken Caminiti 132 535 1998 35 .252 .353 .509 .862
7 Stan Hack 132 702 1945 35 .323 .420 .405 .826
8 Scott Rolen 129 537 2010 35 .285 .358 .497 .854

Rolen had the 8th best year at the plate for any 3B age 35 or 36 (measured by OPS+. You can see who his comparables are -- guys who were crazy talented (or who cheated) and who generally went on to perform pretty well at age 37.


For single seasons, From 1901 to 2011, From Age 37 to 99, Played 50% of games at 3B, (requiring PA>=300), sorted by greatest Adjusted OPS+

Name OPS+ PA Year AGE AVG OBP SLG OPS
1 Cal Ripken 143 354 1999 38 .340 .368 .584 .952
2 Mike Schmidt 142 613 1987 37 .293 .388 .548 .936
3 Ron Cey 138 306 1986 38 .273 .384 .508 .891
4 Chipper Jones 131 459 2011 39 .286 .355 .489 .844
5 Tony Cuccinello 129 450 1945 37 .308 .379 .400 .780
6 Tony Fernandez 124 576 1999 37 .328 .427 .449 .877
7 Gary Gaetti 121 492 1998 39 .281 .356 .495 .852
8 Chipper Jones 120 381 2010 38 .265 .381 .426 .806
9 Graig Nettles 120 515 1985 40 .261 .363 .420 .784
10 Wade Boggs 119 541 1995 37 .324 .412 .422 .834
11 Graig Nettles 119 519 1983 38 .266 .341 .446 .787
12 Pete Rose 119 729 1978 37 .302 .362 .421 .783
13 Chipper Jones 117 596 2009 37 .264 .388 .430 .818
14 Brooks Robinson 113 622 1974 37 .288 .353 .374 .728
15 Lave Cross 113 639 1904 38 .290 .310 .379 .689
16 Mike Schmidt 112 451 1988 38 .249 .337 .405 .742
17 Luke Appling 111 594 1948 41 .314 .423 .354 .777
18 Jimmy Collins 111 579 1907 37 .278 .332 .333 .665


The question is not if he'll produce, but how healthy he'll be. I'm counting on him for 300-400 healthy PA. Is that unreasonable? I don't know, maybe it is. I'm assuming his surgery at least temporarily "fixed" the shoulder issue that was so limiting for him and thus see 2010 as a better baseline than 2011.

All that said, I think we're on the same page. We have internal opportunities to get good production of LF and 3B - and possibly even SS. We don't have any pitchers who we'd feel comfortable throwing in Game 1 of a playoff series. Let's use trades/FA to get the things we don't already have.

edabbs44
09-14-2011, 05:59 PM
Or you could go with the 37 year old (who is expected to be healthy) and one of our two 3B prospects who are MLB ready.

What makes you say that they are "major league ready"?

Benihana
09-14-2011, 06:02 PM
Frazier is a supersub, not an everyday starter on a contending team.

Francisco may be a good complement to Rolen, but I fear him being exposed if he gets 500 AB if/when Rolen goes down.

IslandRed
09-14-2011, 06:48 PM
Supersub might fit what we need a little better in 2012. Unless Rolen retires, he's going to start when he's not hurt. He'll be hurt, we just don't know how much. So we need a guy who's okay with being a bench player and spot starter when Rolen's healthy, preferably able to play positions other than third, and won't be a disaster in extended playing time when Rolen's on the DL. That sounds a little more like Frazier. Of course, it also sounds like Cairo. So who knows.

Just a guess, but unless they are leaning towards making Francisco the official heir apparent at 3B, I could see Juan being traded this winter.

Scrap Irony
09-14-2011, 07:03 PM
Francisco is LH, remember. I think that may be a huge discussion point, as he can create a semi-platoon with Rolen, thereby resting the veteran, giving the youngster some great opportunity to show his strengths in an advantageous split against RH pitchers.

Rolen can be plugged in against all southpaws, some RH pitchers he absolutely mashes, and other RH Francisco might have problems with. (Those that don't get much around the plate, for example, or those that have exceptional change-ups.)

That should keep Rolen fresh while still giving Francisco enough time to get acclimated. It should also benefit the team going forward.

As much time as they've spent with Francisco (and as well as he's played), I doubt they deal him.

Then again, I could always be reading it incorrectly.

Scrap Irony
09-14-2011, 07:05 PM
For single seasons, From 1901 to 2011, From Age 37 to 99, Played 50% of games at 3B, (requiring PA>=300), sorted by greatest Adjusted OPS+

Name OPS+ PA Year AGE AVG OBP SLG OPS
1 Cal Ripken 143 354 1999 38 .340 .368 .584 .952
2 Mike Schmidt 142 613 1987 37 .293 .388 .548 .936
3 Ron Cey 138 306 1986 38 .273 .384 .508 .891
4 Chipper Jones 131 459 2011 39 .286 .355 .489 .844
5 Tony Cuccinello 129 450 1945 37 .308 .379 .400 .780
6 Tony Fernandez 124 576 1999 37 .328 .427 .449 .877
7 Gary Gaetti 121 492 1998 39 .281 .356 .495 .852
8 Chipper Jones 120 381 2010 38 .265 .381 .426 .806
9 Graig Nettles 120 515 1985 40 .261 .363 .420 .784
10 Wade Boggs 119 541 1995 37 .324 .412 .422 .834
11 Graig Nettles 119 519 1983 38 .266 .341 .446 .787
12 Pete Rose 119 729 1978 37 .302 .362 .421 .783
13 Chipper Jones 117 596 2009 37 .264 .388 .430 .818
14 Brooks Robinson 113 622 1974 37 .288 .353 .374 .728
15 Lave Cross 113 639 1904 38 .290 .310 .379 .689
16 Mike Schmidt 112 451 1988 38 .249 .337 .405 .742
17 Luke Appling 111 594 1948 41 .314 .423 .354 .777
18 Jimmy Collins 111 579 1907 37 .278 .332 .333 .665

Rick,

You always know just exactly what makes me feel better.

Well done, sir.

corkedbat
09-14-2011, 07:21 PM
I hope the Reds don't go into next year expecting any kind of production from Rolen. If they get it fine, but they need to prioceed like he is not a regular player.

If an Alonso/Heisey platoon arrangement is in the plans for 2012, I wouldn't mind seeing them go after Ramierez, as long as there is still room to upgrade the pitching staff. i don't see it though because of Rolen (ajust anothger in a long list of ill-advised extensions).

_Sir_Charles_
09-14-2011, 07:46 PM
Reds general manager Walt Jocketty’s contract is up after this season. There was a story in the Chicago Sun-Times laying out the scenario for Jocketty ending up with the Chicago Cubs.

Jocketty won’t talk about his contract situation, so I asked owner Bob Castellini about it.

“Walt’s contract is up,” I said. “There’s been some speculation about his future. My instincts tell me he isn’t going anywhere.”

“Your instincts are correct,” Castellini said.

Castellini would not say if the club was talking to Jocketty about an extension or shed any further light on the matter. But my guess is Jocketty will be the GM of the Reds are long as he wants to be.

Castellini also shot down any notion that Dusty Baker would not return as manager.

“Of course, he’ll be back,” he said.

IslandRed
09-14-2011, 07:52 PM
Then again, I could always be reading it incorrectly.

You're as likely to be correct as I am. I'm not sure why I'm not sold on Francisco, probably the belief that his skill set isn't going to do him any favors with extended exposure to big-league pitching. But I've been wrong before.

Matt700wlw
09-14-2011, 08:08 PM
nm.

marcshoe
09-14-2011, 10:39 PM
If Jocketty leaves Cincinnati, this man is your next GM:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Bavasi

I keep hearing that, but I'm not buying. I could see Cast hiring Hendry before Bill B.

'course it's all moot now.

Gallen5862
09-14-2011, 11:24 PM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Reds Owner Says Jocketty, Baker Will Return
By Mike Axisa [September 14 at 6:52pm CST]
The season has not gone according to plan for the Reds, who are 72-76 and 14.5 games back of the Brewers in the NL Central. GM Walt Jocketty's contract is up after the season, and there's been some speculation that he could be a fit for the Cubs. Reds owner Bob Castellini shot that down though, telling John Fay of The Cincinnati Enquirer that both Jocketty and manager Dusty Baker will be back.

Guacarock
09-14-2011, 11:36 PM
I've been mulling over this Ramirez rumor that popped up this morning in the Chicago papers. Seems mostly likely that it's a smoke-and-mirror plant, possibly from Ramirez's agent, aimed at gaining leverage for the player as the Cubs decide whether to pick up his option or possibly negotiate an extension. What better threat, after all, than to imply the player might be joining a division rival.

That said, I can see one scenario that might have the Reds kicking the tires and considering taking Ramirez out on a test run. The scenario? If the front office already has an inkling that Rolen will hang up his cleats this winter, then making a bid for Ramirez's services could be an option.

I don't see any circumstances under which Rolen and Ramirez would share duties at 3B in 2012. It not only would be prohibitive from a cost standpoint, but neither veteran would go for it, and they are at the point in their careers where neither could or should be asked to move to another position.

But if Rolen is thinking of calling it quits, then Ramirez might be his successor. Would give the Reds their sought-after middle-of-the-order bat filling a position of need. Would allow Jocketty to use the team's trading chips elsewhere, perhaps for a TOR arm or bullpen reinforcements. Money would still be an issue, but less so with Rolen's salary available for redeployment.

Is this probable? Still seems remote. But is it plausible? Yes, depending on Rolen's status.

wlf WV
09-15-2011, 12:26 AM
someone throwing crap on the wall

Agree. Sometimes I think Jerry Springer is now in print...

REDREAD
09-15-2011, 01:57 PM
The great thing about Rolen is that he still plays superior defense.
He doesn't have to be our cleanup hitter to be an above average 3b and to contribute.

IMO, some people got spoiled by the half season of MVP production Rolen gave us last year and are now trying to replace that.

If Rolen is healthy, he will contribute next year. He's signed anyway, and a reasonable gamble, IMO.. Look at other positions if you want to upgrade the team.

TRF
09-15-2011, 02:23 PM
For single seasons, From 1901 to 2011, From Age 37 to 99, Played 50% of games at 3B, (requiring PA>=300), sorted by greatest Adjusted OPS+

Name OPS+ PA Year AGE AVG OBP SLG OPS
1 Cal Ripken 143 354 1999 38 .340 .368 .584 .952
2 Mike Schmidt 142 613 1987 37 .293 .388 .548 .936
3 Ron Cey 138 306 1986 38 .273 .384 .508 .891
4 Chipper Jones 131 459 2011 39 .286 .355 .489 .844
5 Tony Cuccinello 129 450 1945 37 .308 .379 .400 .780
6 Tony Fernandez 124 576 1999 37 .328 .427 .449 .877
7 Gary Gaetti 121 492 1998 39 .281 .356 .495 .852
8 Chipper Jones 120 381 2010 38 .265 .381 .426 .806
9 Graig Nettles 120 515 1985 40 .261 .363 .420 .784
10 Wade Boggs 119 541 1995 37 .324 .412 .422 .834
11 Graig Nettles 119 519 1983 38 .266 .341 .446 .787
12 Pete Rose 119 729 1978 37 .302 .362 .421 .783
13 Chipper Jones 117 596 2009 37 .264 .388 .430 .818
14 Brooks Robinson 113 622 1974 37 .288 .353 .374 .728
15 Lave Cross 113 639 1904 38 .290 .310 .379 .689
16 Mike Schmidt 112 451 1988 38 .249 .337 .405 .742
17 Luke Appling 111 594 1948 41 .314 .423 .354 .777
18 Jimmy Collins 111 579 1907 37 .278 .332 .333 .665


The question is not if he'll produce, but how healthy he'll be. I'm counting on him for 300-400 healthy PA. Is that unreasonable? I don't know, maybe it is. I'm assuming his surgery at least temporarily "fixed" the shoulder issue that was so limiting for him and thus see 2010 as a better baseline than 2011.

All that said, I think we're on the same page. We have internal opportunities to get good production of LF and 3B - and possibly even SS. We don't have any pitchers who we'd feel comfortable throwing in Game 1 of a playoff series. Let's use trades/FA to get the things we don't already have.

18 listings. Schmidt and Chipper listed more than once. Those two are outliers in a category of outliers.

COUNTING on a 37 year old 3B with a history of back and now shoulder problems to be a major contributor is foolish. 300 AB's? ok, say he does give you that. But if it is the hitting equivalent of Arroyo's 2011 pitching, I'll pass.

But yeah, 3B doesn't need to be the black hole it was. We can see the options. LF is now Alonso's, that seems to be written in pen. Stubbs time might be done if Heisey keeps hitting.

So really, all these discussions on LF, 3B even CF to a point are, barring injuries late fairly resolved.

Can we get a #1 SP? Please?

RedsManRick
09-15-2011, 03:49 PM
What makes you say that they are "major league ready"?

They've performed well in the minor leagues and the Reds have them on the roster currently.

Fransisco has been up to the majors before. Frazier was called up earlier in the year. Could they possibly improve more with time in AAA? Probably. But the Reds seem to think they merit getting PA in the majors.

corkedbat
09-16-2011, 06:13 PM
If not Ramirez, how about a deal with the Red Sox for Kevin Youkilis?

RedsManRick
09-16-2011, 06:31 PM
I thought maybe these would be insightful:
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/970_1001124_1011586_97_agraph_%20_9_16_2011.png
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/970_1010978_1009517_1011055_agraph_%20_9_16_2011.p ng

wlf WV
09-16-2011, 06:32 PM
In the words of TRF: Can we get a #1 starting pitcher? Please?

corkedbat
09-16-2011, 06:53 PM
In the words of TRF: Can we get a #1 starting pitcher? Please?

We need both a TOR arm and a Middle of the Order bat

edabbs44
09-16-2011, 06:58 PM
They've performed well in the minor leagues and the Reds have them on the roster currently.

Fransisco has been up to the majors before. Frazier was called up earlier in the year. Could they possibly improve more with time in AAA? Probably. But the Reds seem to think they merit getting PA in the majors.

I think there is a difference btw "major league ready" and "nothing left to prove in the minors". But I get what you are saying.