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View Full Version : Where does Heisey factor in?



Tom Servo
09-14-2011, 09:38 PM
I keep wanting to...not exactly 'write him off', but accept that his best value is as a 4th outfielder...but he just keeps hitting homers. Is it fair to assume he wouldn't work as an everyday guy given his low walk rate/skill set or could he possibly have a higher ceiling than I give him credit for?

_Sir_Charles_
09-14-2011, 09:42 PM
I keep thinking this too, but at some point we have to move him PAST Drew Stubbs in the pecking order I think. We keep seeing him in contention for the LF slot, but I personally think he's better suited for center. He's a notch below Drew defensively, but he's still well above average. My concern though is if they do decide to go with Yonder in left...not having Drew in center will hurt more. But regardless, Chris deserves more opportunities.

dougdirt
09-14-2011, 09:49 PM
Is his power worth the drop off in defense AND OBP from Stubbs? I am not sure that it is. I think he is a fourth outfielder with real good power.

Guacarock
09-14-2011, 10:01 PM
Is his power worth the drop off in defense AND OBP from Stubbs? I am not sure that it is. I think he is a fourth outfielder with real good power.

We would see a drop in defense, but the difference in their OBP is negligible. Heisey last season, for instance, had an OBP of .324, higher than Stubbs' .320 this season. They are close enough on that account that either could have the higher OBP in 2012.

westofyou
09-14-2011, 10:15 PM
On a Casey Stengel or Earl Weaver team he could be something else, which it looks like is the angle he's getting in Cincinnati.

He's gonna get a nice pension at this rate.

corkedbat
09-14-2011, 10:36 PM
I would look at a package with Grandal, Stubb/Heisey, a starter and another piece to TB for Shields.

If Stubbs were dealt, I'd let he and Sappelt fight it out for center. I'd also like to find a LH OF who can play center and hit leadoff to compete with them. If Heisey isn't the starting CF, then he is the 4th OF and first reserve at all three spots. He also splits time with lonso in LF against tough lefties at least.

Scrap Irony
09-14-2011, 10:46 PM
I'd semi-platoon Heisey and Sappelt in CF and deal Stubbs, as I don't believe Stubbs will ever be able to fix the holes in his swing. Heisey would, IMO, provide better power than Stubbs, with similar BA and obp. Defensively, Stubbs is better.

IMO, they're six of one and a half dozen of the other in those two areas.

But, because Stubbs is much faster on the basepaths and a good base stealer, he gets the nod.

That said, I wouldn't be overly concerned about dealing Stubbs as a part of a package to get a TOR arm. Or Heisey, for that matter. Or Sappelt.

You just don't want all three on your team next season. That's overkill, IMO.

Caveat Emperor
09-14-2011, 11:44 PM
Heisey's a quality 4th OF and a good bat off the bench. There's no shame in letting him be just that until he hits free agency and tries his luck at starting someplace else.

mth123
09-15-2011, 12:01 AM
Heisey's a quality 4th OF and a good bat off the bench. There's no shame in letting him be just that until he hits free agency and tries his luck at starting someplace else.

Yep. Good teams have guys like him on the bench.

wlf WV
09-15-2011, 12:19 AM
You guys are starting to sound like Dusty.:)

schroomytunes
09-15-2011, 12:29 AM
I think Heisey is a solid #4 guy right now that should start 70 games a year at all 3 postions, @ 300 at bats, and should work well with Yonder in a platoon role in LF next year! Thus allowing us to focus on acquiring a #2 starter and a Shortstop for 2012!

SirFelixCat
09-15-2011, 12:31 AM
I think Heisey is a solid #4 guy right now that should start 70 games a year at all 3 postions, @ 300 at bats, and should work well with Yonder in a platoon role in LF next year! Thus allowing us to focus on acquiring a #2 starter and a Shortstop for 2012!

So no confidence that Cozart can man SS on this team?

schroomytunes
09-15-2011, 12:43 AM
I would like a legit starter at SS with Cozart being the platoon guy, I don't want to go into 2012 with another black hole at SS. Cozart did well when he was here but too small of a sample size to bank on for a whole season just yet!

corkedbat
09-15-2011, 12:51 AM
I'm fine with Cozart at SS with Janish as his backup. maybe bring Didi up mid-season to give you a LH MI option. I'd bat Cozart 8th and think he'd do wellne. I think there are much more pressing needs.

mdccclxix
09-15-2011, 10:54 AM
I'm glad there is a Heisey thread today, I want to see what people think about his swing this year. I noticed it's a little bit quieter than last year. He used to keep his hands higher and busier pre swing then really drop them into place somewhat violently. This year it seems like the whole swing in closer to one motion, which I figure would help even if his numbers aren't drastically better. His power is up, though. Check out these two HR swings from 9/26 last year and 9/15 this year:

Last year:

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=12494909&topic_id=&c_id=mlb&tcid=vpp_copy_12494909&v=3

This year:

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=19225931&topic_id=&c_id=mlb&tcid=vpp_copy_19225931&v=3

Last year's video is a swing on a lower pitch so it can make his hand drop seem more drastic, but I still think it has slowed down and is more in control.

What do you think?

Kc61
09-15-2011, 10:57 AM
Unless a favorable trade comes along, I'd have Heisey as the fourth outfielder next year. I prefer Heisey to Sappelt.

I'd consider getting a fifth outfielder who switch hits, or hits lefty.

I'd keep Stubbs if possible. He showed improvement over the years in the minors. I think he can improve in the majors as well, and has great ability.

lollipopcurve
09-15-2011, 11:05 AM
As has been reported in the last day or two, Heisey needs to work on using the whole field. Problem he has is that he has a hard time using his hands independently to wait on balls and steer them the other way. He's not what I would call a hands hitter -- his swing is more "of a piece" with everything timed together. Not sure how much progress he can make on this front -- using your hands is a pretty ingrained thing, a pretty hardwired part of someone's swing. But it's well worth seeing what Heisey can do on that front, because he's shown a lot of in-game power.

That said, CF is the most interesting spot on the team right now, IMO. Heisey should be competing directly for the CF position with Stubbs, IMO. And then you've got Sappelt and Phipps in the wings. Either the Reds go big -- for Kemp -- or they throw the position up for what could be a tremendous in-house competition over the next year or two.

Always Red
09-15-2011, 11:17 AM
I like Alonso and Heisey splitting LF, and Heisey and Stubbs splitting CF.

We can label Heisey a 4th OF; that's ok with me, I think he's a fine one, and a valuable pinch hitter. He can also play LF more in the bigger ballparks. As long as Dusty is managing the team, Heisey will get his at bats going forward, I think.

Sappelt back to Louisville or traded and the Reds find a LH 5th OF (Lewis replacement).

RedsManRick
09-15-2011, 11:55 AM
I agree with the really good 4th OF comments. I really like him and Sappelt as the 4th and 5th OFs. The lineup is lefty heavy as it is, especially if Fransisco makes the team.

That said, if somebody is willing to pay through the nose for Stubbs, landing us a top of the rotation guy, I wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger. I think the trade value difference between Stubbs and Heisey is likely larger than their on-the-field value, which is something like 1 win.

mdccclxix
09-15-2011, 12:38 PM
Wow, from McAllister's blog today:


Do you realize?

Chris Heisey was 2 for 4 with a HR last night.
He has now passed Drew Stubbs in HR and RBI...in 374 FEWER plate appearances.
Stubbs: 639 PA, 569 AB, 15 HR, 42 RBI, 191 K, .246-.322-.369-.691
Heisey: 265 PA, 240 AB, 16 HR, 44 RBI, 66 K, .254-.315-.467-.782

And this is interesting
2011
Stubbs vs RHP .227-.298-.341-.639 vs LHP .330-.419-.491-.910
Heisey vs RHP .264-.318-.534-.851 vs LHP .213-.260-.340-.600

Is it time to platoon Heisey and Stubbs more often? 50/50 split?

mdccclxix
09-15-2011, 12:43 PM
I'm just going to throw this out there, it's really not that well founded, but is it possible Stubbs is a bit of a china doll? Skiddish about getting hurt? He mentioned he didn't like football because of the bruises that don't go away (don't really blame him). He doesn't like bunting which involves a ball possibly hitting your hand. He hits RHP poorly, I'm not sure how he responds to inside pitches - I think pretty well. Like I said, I could be way off, but maybe he needs to loosen up and just let his talent take over. He's stiff. Possibly over-mental.

Bumstead
09-15-2011, 01:03 PM
Heisey can be a great 4th OF on this team, similar to Reed Johnson (with a bit more power and a bit less contact). I think that is a pretty decent comparison and a role that he can succeed in for a long period of time in MLB.

Bum

cumberlandreds
09-15-2011, 01:12 PM
Since it looks like Alonso will be the LF next season it's safe to assume that Heisey will be his caddy. Expect to see Heisey a lot from the 7th inning on and will start against tougher lefty's to spell Alonso. He's really a good 4th OF to have on the roster. I'm sure he will be brought up often in trade talks too this winter. If a good deal is to had with someone I would think he would be part of that trade.

Reds/Flyers Fan
09-15-2011, 01:40 PM
I may be the only one, but I'd like to see Heisey get some consideration for the CF spot next year. He is flat-out a better hitter than Drew Stubbs, whose lack of contact at the plate is becoming a humongous elephant in the room. It's not like Drew is going to all of a sudden make contact next year. He's an offensive doughnut in the middle of the order and, honestly, can never again be counted on to lead off, at least for a contending team. Stubbs' speed is unquestioned, but he's also hesitant to steal bases in crucial late-game situations. His defense is superior to Heisey, but not enough, in my opinion, to relegate a hitter of Heisey's caliber to the bench.

I found this interesting from yesterday's Daugherty blog:

Heisey: 261 plate appearances… 15 HR, 43 BI, .250
Stubbs: 631 PAs… 15 HR, 42 BI, .249

And you can add last night's Heisey single, HR and RBI (now .254 avg) and last night's Stubbs 0-3 with a K (now .246) to those numbers.

Also, if this team is going to go out and try to trade for a No. 1, someone we like is going to have to go. We're not going to flip Paul Janish for James Shields. So, who goes? Votto? No. Bruce? No. Phillips? No. Mes? No. Alonso? Probably not, if he's our new LF.

We're going to have to trade some quality to get quality. Maybe that's Stubbs.

dougdirt
09-15-2011, 05:37 PM
Wow, from McAllister's blog today:


Is it time to platoon Heisey and Stubbs more often? 50/50 split?

Eh. RBI is meaningless in this comparison. Stubbs has 455 PA's in the leadoff spot. You simply aren't going to get RBI chances there.

The HR thing is very impressive on behalf of Heisey though.

I wouldn't be too upset if Heisey got more time than he has in center in place of Stubbs, but I wouldn't go 50/50. If I were to be honest, I would give Sappelt more time than Heisey. I just think he is a better hitter, and while defensively they may be a wash (better range for Sappelt IMO, but Heisey's arm makes it closer) or close to it I just like Sappelts chance to hit/get on base better.

oneupper
09-15-2011, 06:36 PM
If Stubbs had kept his production from 2010, we would not be having this discussion.
But he's gone from a .773 OPS to a .691 OPS and dropping as he slumps through the year.
His numbers from August (.596) and September (.535) are Janish-esque.
Is he hurt? Confused? Has he been "figured out"?

I want the 2010 or better Stubbs back, because this year's version is reminding me of Taveras and Patterson.

2010 Stubbs>Heisey>2011 Stubbs.

mth123
09-15-2011, 07:33 PM
So, if we keep Alonso, Stubbs and Heisey, who in the heck do we deal for a starting pitcher?

IslandRed
09-15-2011, 07:37 PM
If Stubbs had kept his production from 2010, we would not be having this discussion.
But he's gone from a .773 OPS to a .691 OPS and dropping as he slumps through the year.
His numbers from August (.596) and September (.535) are Janish-esque.
Is he hurt? Confused? Has he been "figured out"?

I want the 2010 or better Stubbs back, because this year's version is reminding me of Taveras and Patterson.

2010 Stubbs>Heisey>2011 Stubbs.

Well said.

I don't want to start the strikeouts argument again, so I'll just say his contact issues have to be addressed. There's a point on the sliding scale where it stops being "byproduct of power" and starts being "can't hit." If not for his speed propping up his natural BABIP, he'd really look bad.

Bringing it back to Heisey, between the need to hedge on Stubbs and also needing a defensive caddy/hedge for Alonso, Heisey needs to be here and he'll play quite a bit.

I don't have a strong opinion on who the fifth outfielder should be, but if we don't have any other lefty bats on the bench, I'd suspect they'd grab one for this spot. Lefty pinch-hitter is almost an everyday job in the NL.

mth123
09-15-2011, 07:46 PM
Well said.

I don't want to start the strikeouts argument again, so I'll just say his contact issues have to be addressed. There's a point on the sliding scale where it stops being "byproduct of power" and starts being "can't hit." If not for his speed propping up his natural BABIP, he'd really look bad.

Bringing it back to Heisey, between the need to hedge on Stubbs and also needing a defensive caddy/hedge for Alonso, Heisey needs to be here and he'll play quite a bit.

I don't have a strong opinion on who the fifth outfielder should be, but if we don't have any other lefty bats on the bench, I'd suspect they'd grab one for this spot. Lefty pinch-hitter is almost an everyday job in the NL.

Assuming Alonso, Stubbs and Bruce are the OF, Votto, Phillips, Cozart and Rolen are the IF and Mesoraco is catching, my bench would be Hanigan, Cairo, Francisco, Heisey and Frazier. Francisco is a lefty. Heisey splits like a lefty. Don't really see much more balance than that unless you could get all guys who switch hit. If you got guys who could hit anybody, they wouldn't be bench players.

IslandRed
09-15-2011, 07:55 PM
That could work. I'm skeptical they'll go without a net for Cozart, though, what with his minimal experience and return from the injury. Nobody on that bench is anyone you'd want at shortstop except in case of emergency, although maybe I'm underrating Frazier a little.

Tony Cloninger
09-15-2011, 07:56 PM
Tinker some with Hesiey's swing to adjust to outside pitches.....and you've got gold...or possibly...dare I say.... a Jose Bautista like hitter? :thumbup:

mth123
09-15-2011, 08:09 PM
That could work. I'm skeptical they'll go without a net for Cozart, though, what with his minimal experience and return from the injury. Nobody on that bench is anyone you'd want at shortstop except in case of emergency, although maybe I'm underrating Frazier a little.

I don't see a lot of value in a back-up SS. Frazier could play a game here or there to give Cozart a rest. If Cozart goes down for multiple games in a row, I'd want a defensive minded guy to play every day. It shouldn't be hard to get one here from AAA (Rojas?, Gregorious? even Negron?) in a day. No need to waste a spot on a glove who can't hit. Those are easily had and the Reds have plenty of guys to go get (Janish may even be back as a AAA insurance policy). Meanwhile, use the roster spot on a supersub who can add a lot to the team other than being a "just in case" glove. "Just in case" should reside in AAA IMO.

It would be different if the starter was a shaky defender who needed a late inning caddy. That isn't the case with Cozart (or Phillips or Rolen for that matter).

HokieRed
09-15-2011, 08:25 PM
Another jack just a minute ago. With a HR every 14 AB's and an .817 OPS, he's getting pretty hard to call just a good 4th outfielder.

WVRedsFan
09-16-2011, 12:42 AM
Is his power worth the drop off in defense AND OBP from Stubbs? I am not sure that it is. I think he is a fourth outfielder with real good power.
This.

oneupper
09-16-2011, 09:09 AM
Heisey has never gotten much love in the organization since he was a low draft pick. (17th round in 2006) and didn't start out spectacularly.
All he has done is hit...every level. Even in the FSL where even Votto had a hard time. (.819 OPS in 2008).

OPS of .823 in his minor league career (Stubbs was .765).
He's not Ryan Braun or the second coming of Jr, but given regular time he could put up some pretty decent numbers.
And he can PUT THE BALL IN PLAY when required. Fourth outfielder? I'd say right now, he's at least our second best.

I'm beginning to think that Stubbs has been exposed. Rearrange the letters in his last name and you get BS BUST. :eek:

Time to wake up and feel the breeze (as Drew whiffs again). :)

If other teams want to talk about Stubbs, I'd be listening attentively.

BuckeyeRedleg
09-16-2011, 09:42 AM
Heisey has never gotten much love in the organization since he was a low draft pick. (17th round in 2006) and didn't start out spectacularly.
All he has done is hit...every level. Even in the FSL where even Votto had a hard time. (.819 OPS in 2008).

OPS of .823 in his minor league career (Stubbs was .765).
He's not Ryan Braun or the second coming of Jr, but given regular time he could put up some pretty decent numbers.
And he can PUT THE BALL IN PLAY when required. Fourth outfielder? I'd say right now, he's at least our second best.

I'm beginning to think that Stubbs has been exposed. Rearrange the letters in his last name and you get BS BUST. :eek:

Time to wake up and feel the breeze (as Drew whiffs again). :)

If other teams want to talk about Stubbs, I'd be listening attentively.

Yep. Drafting Heisey in '06 was a decent consolation for passing on Lincecum for Stubbs as Heisey has outplayed Stubbs every step of the way since the day they were drafted. The main negative on Stubbs was always his contact rate and it really doesn't look like he done anything to improve that.

klw
09-16-2011, 09:51 AM
r, but given regular time he could put up some pretty decent numbers.
And he can PUT THE BALL IN PLAY when required. Fourth outfielder? I'd say right now, he's at least our second best.

I'm beginning to think that Stubbs has been exposed. Rearrange the letters in his last name and you get BS BUST. :eek:

Time to wake up and feel the breeze (as Drew whiffs again). :)
.

For those seeing Heisey as a much better contact hitter than Stubbs, I would remind you that Stubbs is K'ing at a rate of 1 per 2.98 ab while Heisey is not much better at 1 per 3.6 at bats. A couple of months ago Heisey was k'ing at the same rate as Stubbs. Stubbs has 193 k's in 575 AB. At his rate, in a similar 575 ab, Heisey would have 160 k's. Better than Stubbs but hardly putting the ball in play when required.

Stubbs also walks at a higher rate and sees more pitches per pa so he is better suited, though not ideal, for a leadoff role than Heisey. Also to consider is Heisey's great success in the pinch skews his numbers and does make him valuable in the role (though that role can be overrated- if someone is good playing him more should reduce the need for a clutch PH). I hope Heisey gets more of a chance in the future but it is not clear cut how this best occurs.

dougdirt
09-16-2011, 10:11 AM
And he can PUT THE BALL IN PLAY when required.
Chris Heisey's contact rate when he swings on pitches within the zone: 79.5%. Stubbs: 81.7%. Heisey's contact rate when he swings on pitches out of the zone: 55.9%. Stubbs: 54.8%. So no, he your point isn't really a valid one backed up by any real evidence.

As for the rest of your post that followed, well, it just looks pretty silly when presented with the facts.

lollipopcurve
09-16-2011, 10:15 AM
Chris Heisey's contact rate when he swings on pitches within the zone: 79.5%. Stubbs: 81.7%. Heisey's contact rate when he swings on pitches out of the zone: 55.9%. Stubbs: 54.8%. So no, he your point isn't really a valid one backed up by any real evidence.

A variable not to be dismissed -- consistent ABs. Stubbs has always had regular ABs while in the bigs. Heisey, almost never. Yes, neither guy is going to have real good contact rates, but I believe there's greater room for improvement from Heisey.

TRF
09-16-2011, 10:49 AM
For those seeing Heisey as a much better contact hitter than Stubbs, I would remind you that Stubbs is K'ing at a rate of 1 per 2.98 ab while Heisey is not much better at 1 per 3.6 at bats. A couple of months ago Heisey was k'ing at the same rate as Stubbs. Stubbs has 193 k's in 575 AB. At his rate, in a similar 575 ab, Heisey would have 160 k's. Better than Stubbs but hardly putting the ball in play when required.

Stubbs also walks at a higher rate and sees more pitches per pa so he is better suited, though not ideal, for a leadoff role than Heisey. Also to consider is Heisey's great success in the pinch skews his numbers and does make him valuable in the role (though that role can be overrated- if someone is good playing him more should reduce the need for a clutch PH). I hope Heisey gets more of a chance in the future but it is not clear cut how this best occurs.

He'd also have about 35 HR's. I'd take that with the 160+ K's.

He's 3rd on the team in HR's in only 245 AB's. That's sick. Yes, his OBP needs to come up a bit.

As for Stubbs, a lot of this is on the Reds not understanding him, or his inability to progress. We heard when he was drafted out of college that he was still a raw player. Well that was 5 years ago. Is he still raw?

As for their respective OBP's last year it was a wash: .329 for Stubbs, .324 for Heisey. This year it is .323 for Stubbs .309 for Heisey... As far as scoring runs, how much value is there in a .014 difference in OBP?

I can respect Stubbs athletic gifts, I just don't believe he's a very good baseball player. He'll get to more balls than Heisey, Heisey has a better arm. Stubbs will steal more bases, Heisey, at least this year has shown more power, and it was close to a wash last year.

Stubbs cannot have a sub .400 SLG. not and create as many outs as he does.

cumberlandreds
09-16-2011, 10:53 AM
He'd also have about 35 HR's. I'd take that with the 160+ K's

I agree with you. I can accept a 160 or more K's if someone has 35 to 40 Hrs. But when they only have about 12 that's hard to stomach.

bucksfan2
09-16-2011, 11:01 AM
How about a radical idea that will probably be shot down by most but oh well.

Go with an outfield of Alonso, Stubbs, and Heisey. Trade Bruce for a TOR starter and go for it over the next two seasons. Heisey isn't as good as Bruce is but I don't know if the drop off would be that substantial. Bruce would have more trade value and could net you a TOR type pitcher. It would be a move towards 2012 and 2013 while putting the future in jeopardy. Its a big risk but could reap big rewards.

oneupper
09-16-2011, 11:44 AM
Chris Heisey's contact rate when he swings on pitches within the zone: 79.5%. Stubbs: 81.7%. Heisey's contact rate when he swings on pitches out of the zone: 55.9%. Stubbs: 54.8%. So no, he your point isn't really a valid one backed up by any real evidence.

As for the rest of your post that followed, well, it just looks pretty silly when presented with the facts.

Silliness? Yes. We can all have a little fun, I'd hope.

However, the statement was that Heisey was better at putting the ball in play WHEN required. When is it required? How about man on third, less than two outs for example.

Stubbs (Career ML)

AB 49
H 8
RBI 29
K 20
BB 6
AVG .163
OBP .226
SLG .265
OPS. 491

Heisey

AB 22
H 7
RBI 23
BB 3
K 7
AVG .318
OBP .344
SLG . 545
OPS .889

Yeah, it's a small sample size. But we all watch the games. Stubbs just has to hit a roller somewhere, (he's almost impossible to double up)...and he CAN'T!
We all know about the bunting.

Heisey's not great, I'm not saying he is. But Stubbs is NOT getting it done, contact rate or no contact rate.

I know you've put a lot of faith in Drew as you watched him come up through the minors. I read your posts and had the same hope.

But it's not happening. He doesn't have it. He's not going to be Granderson (Granderson KILLED in the minors, BTW and was rushed). If the REDS want to put his glove out there everyday, they have to face the fact that he's a liability on offense. You might think its worth it. I disagree.

osuceltic
09-16-2011, 11:52 AM
The Heisey-Stubbs thing is interesting. I've been a Stubbs guy, but this season has been disappointing. One of the things I like about him is his defensive ability in center field -- the importance of which, I think, often is forgotten. But Stubbs has been nothing more than better-than-average defensively this season. He has every tool you can have to be a difference-making center fielder, but he hasn't been that player this season. He has misplayed balls coming in, played ultra-conservatively for a player with his speed, and generally has done a nice impression of average out there. His work with the bat, meanwhile, has been atrocious.

Heisey strikes me as a classic tweener -- not enough bat to be a regular corner outfielder, not enough glove for center. There's no question he can be a good fourth outfielder, but can he be more? I'm still of the belief that this team needs a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat and left field is the obvious place to add that player. So the question becomes, can Heisey offer more in center than Stubbs? If Stubbs plays like the defensive wiz I believe he can be, then I'm not sure Heisey can overcome that with the advantage he possess at the plate. However, if this seaons's Stubbs is what we'll get going forward -- both in the field and at the plate -- then the question becomes more legitimate. I'm still not convinced Heisey can play center field adequately, but if he can ... you have a real choice to make.

As someone said earlier, Stubbs likely still has far greater trade value than Heisey. Is his true value that much higher? I'm no longer sure. Anyway, it's one of the more interesting things to watch with this team going into the offseason.

BuckeyeRedleg
09-16-2011, 11:55 AM
Great post, celtic.

Scrap Irony
09-16-2011, 12:10 PM
Heisey strikes me as a classic tweener -- not enough bat to be a regular corner outfielder, not enough glove for center. ... I'm still not convinced Heisey can play center field adequately, but if he can ... you have a real choice to make.

As someone said earlier, Stubbs likely still has far greater trade value than Heisey. Is his true value that much higher? I'm no longer sure. Anyway, it's one of the more interesting things to watch with this team going into the offseason.

1) Heisey is a farily good CF. In the minors, he would normally get good jumps, has a strong and accurate arm, and makes most of the plays. He'll never be a Gold Glover, but he's certainly more than serviceable.

His defensive numbers suggest this is true at the major league level as well. In just under 1,000 major league innings, he grades out as a postitive fielder (4.5); however, you have to subtract for innings played in LF or RF. Considering anything under 1,000 innings is simply noise (and a thousand innings isn't all that great), that's as much as you can determine. And, in the fwiw department, Drew Stubbs grades out as a 4.6 OFer in just under 3,000 innings.

In other words, according to the numbers, Heisey is just as good as Stubbs in the OF*.

2) If Stubbs has better trade value, now's the time to strike. I question just how much value he has, though. I'm thinking, to casual Red fans and even Redszone, he's considered very good. But, to major league GMs, notsomuch.



* Small sample size issues

klw
09-16-2011, 12:27 PM
Question I have been wondering about for a while is:

Does Chris Heisey = Brady Clark + GABP?



PS; This not a question I have researched or to which I generated an answer.

Scrap Irony
09-16-2011, 12:36 PM
Nah. Heisey has much more power, a little less speed, more contact issues, and a stronger arm.

But other than that, they're similar.

Benihana
09-16-2011, 12:48 PM
He is the 4th OF until he gets expensive. Then Sappelt becomes the 4th OF.

Unless of course you can get good value in a trade for him or Stubbs.

puca
09-16-2011, 01:32 PM
Always been a big Stubbs apologist, but if he can help bring back a TOR or even strong MOR arm then I say deal him and let Heisey/Sappelt battle it out for CF. If Alonso is going to man LF whoever plays CF better be able to cover a lot of ground though.

Superdude
09-16-2011, 01:50 PM
The Heisey-Stubbs thing is interesting. I've been a Stubbs guy, but this season has been disappointing. One of the things I like about him is his defensive ability in center field -- the importance of which, I think, often is forgotten. But Stubbs has been nothing more than better-than-average defensively this season. He has every tool you can have to be a difference-making center fielder, but he hasn't been that player this season. He has misplayed balls coming in, played ultra-conservatively for a player with his speed, and generally has done a nice impression of average out there. His work with the bat, meanwhile, has been atrocious.

That's the most bizarre thing about Stubbs to me. The guy has the tools to be a top flight defender, but seems to give up on so many catchable balls, especially ones dropping right in front of him. Defensive statistics puzzle me to no end, so I'm not gonna make any great claims here, but I do wonder if we're overrating Stubbs defense based on his speed. His offense has obviously been more than disappointing this season, and is only warranted if his glove is off the charts good.

TRF
09-16-2011, 02:09 PM
Stubbs SHOULD be Matt Kemp. The speed, the power. That is who he should be.

for some reason, he's not.

RedsManRick
09-16-2011, 03:19 PM
Stubbs SHOULD be Matt Kemp. The speed, the power. That is who he should be.

for some reason, he's not.

Why do people seem to think that the ability to make contact is different than power or speed?

TRF
09-16-2011, 05:04 PM
I don't think it is different...

Matt Kemp 147K's
Drew Stubbs 193 K's

That's 2 extra k's per week roughly. Are strikeouts the issue? mmmm no. his HR power dried up. Last year most of his AB's came in the 7 hole. this year, most came in the leadoff spot. And he's lost 77 points of SLG. His BA and OBP are about the same.

Once again, i posit that the Reds have zero idea of what Drew Stubbs is as a player.

Caveat Emperor
09-16-2011, 10:39 PM
Chris Heisey's contact rate when he swings on pitches within the zone: 79.5%. Stubbs: 81.7%. Heisey's contact rate when he swings on pitches out of the zone: 55.9%. Stubbs: 54.8%. So no, he your point isn't really a valid one backed up by any real evidence.

As for the rest of your post that followed, well, it just looks pretty silly when presented with the facts.

It's not like comparing Babe Ruth to Jason Romano, though. They're both CFs with significant warts in their game, and I don't think the degree of separation between the two is very substantial at all.

Really, if it weren't for his #1 pick status, I'm not certain Drew Stubbs would be more than a 4th OF right now.

Caveat Emperor
09-16-2011, 10:42 PM
Are strikeouts the issue? mmmm no. his HR power dried up. Last year most of his AB's came in the 7 hole. this year, most came in the leadoff spot. And he's lost 77 points of SLG. His BA and OBP are about the same.

Drew Stubbs problem isn't that he strikes out too much -- Drew Stubbs problem is that he simply isn't a very good hitter.

RedsManRick
09-16-2011, 11:05 PM
I don't think it is different...

Matt Kemp 147K's
Drew Stubbs 193 K's

That's 2 extra k's per week roughly. Are strikeouts the issue? mmmm no. his HR power dried up. Last year most of his AB's came in the 7 hole. this year, most came in the leadoff spot. And he's lost 77 points of SLG. His BA and OBP are about the same.

Once again, i posit that the Reds have zero idea of what Drew Stubbs is as a player.

And last year, Matt Kemp hit .249/.310/.450.

I agree, I think the Reds have no clue how to handle a guy with Stubbs' skill set and have tried to turn him in to something he's not in their attempts to find a leadoff man.

My extremely amateur scouting/psychologist eye says he's tied himself in knots trying not to strikeout and making it worse in the process. I'd like to see him just go up there and let it rip for a while.

Caveat Emperor
09-17-2011, 02:46 AM
You know, its important to remember we're talking about a guy who was a career .765 guy in the minors over ~2,000 PAs -- in the majors, he's .736 over about 1,200 PAs.

I don't know what people are expecting out of Stubbs, because he's doing exactly what he's done for his entire professional career.

CesarGeronimo
09-17-2011, 08:13 AM
And last year, Matt Kemp hit .249/.310/.450.

I agree, I think the Reds have no clue how to handle a guy with Stubbs' skill set and have tried to turn him in to something he's not in their attempts to find a leadoff man.

My extremely amateur scouting/psychologist eye says he's tied himself in knots trying not to strikeout and making it worse in the process. I'd like to see him just go up there and let it rip for a while.

A familiar problem for Dusty? (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=11304)

lollipopcurve
09-17-2011, 08:26 AM
but I do wonder if we're overrating Stubbs defense based on his speed.

Been saying it since early in 2010. He's not aggressive enough to be a real good CF. He's got a good arm, and that's an important asset, and he can run down certain balls if he's got plenty of room without the threat of collision. Solid CF, but nothing "special."

Reds have a true surplus here -- Stubbs, Heisey, Sappelt, Phipps. Phipps is the intriguing wildcard, given that he is said to have a shutdown arm.

mth123
09-17-2011, 09:32 AM
That's the most bizarre thing about Stubbs to me. The guy has the tools to be a top flight defender, but seems to give up on so many catchable balls, especially ones dropping right in front of him. Defensive statistics puzzle me to no end, so I'm not gonna make any great claims here, but I do wonder if we're overrating Stubbs defense based on his speed. His offense has obviously been more than disappointing this season, and is only warranted if his glove is off the charts good.

Stubbs covers a lot of ground from gap to gap and that makes him a good defender (and a better choice to help cover for some one like Alonso if he's out there), but I do think he's over rated because of not only his speed, but his smooth fluid motion out there. It is very enjoyable to watch Stubbs play CF because he seems so smooth and under control, but as CF play goes, he has some flaws. He's not real good at going back on the ball IMO and I think he tends to play deeper than the elite CFers do because of it. A lot of the great CFers that I've seen would play a couple of steps in and still be able to go back on balls hit over their heads. It allows them to do the thing that great CFers do that Drew doesn't really excel at, which is turn a bunch of those dinkers hit in front of them into outs instead of base hits. As Lollipop said, he looks little tentative out there and he lets balls fall in front of him that I think should be caught. I think part of that is because he's playing deeper than the great CFers that I've seen play. IIRC, Paul Blair was the master of playing a couple of steps in and gobbling up a lot of those flairs and soft liners hit over second base. IMO, to be a great CFer, a guy has to do more of that than what we see out of Stubbs.

HokieRed
09-17-2011, 09:40 AM
Heisey has this year hit a home run roughly every 14 AB's. Drew Stubbs has 575 AB's. The math is interesting to consider.

dougdirt
09-17-2011, 09:57 AM
It's not like comparing Babe Ruth to Jason Romano, though. They're both CFs with significant warts in their game, and I don't think the degree of separation between the two is very substantial at all.

Really, if it weren't for his #1 pick status, I'm not certain Drew Stubbs would be more than a 4th OF right now.

I can agree here. I was simply pointing out that if someone is going to make the argument that Stubbs can't make contact, they shouldn't be countering with Heisey at all, who actually makes less contact than Stubbs does when he swings the bat.

Stubbs, based on this season, probably has numbers similar to that of a 4th outfielder. Last year he was starter worthy. Not sure I am giving him a pass, because it isn't like there is a clear cut alternative guy that is better than he is right now for the position (though I would entertain ideas for both Heisey or Sappelt). I would go into 2012 with Stubbs as "the guy" in center, but I am not sure I would give him as much rope as I would have given him this year.

HokieRed
09-17-2011, 10:01 AM
I can agree here. I was simply pointing out that if someone is going to make the argument that Stubbs can't make contact, they shouldn't be countering with Heisey at all, who actually makes less contact than Stubbs does when he swings the bat.

Stubbs, based on this season, probably has numbers similar to that of a 4th outfielder. Last year he was starter worthy. Not sure I am giving him a pass, because it isn't like there is a clear cut alternative guy that is better than he is right now for the position (though I would entertain ideas for both Heisey or Sappelt). I would go into 2012 with Stubbs as "the guy" in center, but I am not sure I would give him as much rope as I would have given him this year.

I think this is a very fair assessment. I think I'd add to it that the FO ought to shop both Stubbs and Heisey this offseason and see what the market is. I suspect Sappelt's not far enough along yet to have very much established value or I'd add Sappelt into this.

Blitz Dorsey
09-17-2011, 10:23 AM
I would love to see Stubbs as part of a blockbuster deal that will help the Reds land a TOR pitcher. You put Heisey or Sappelt out there for 500+ ABs and they would produce more than Drew Stubbs IMO.

Scrap Irony
09-17-2011, 11:15 AM
I don't think either Heisey or Sappelt has as much trade value as they might earn in value to the Reds.

Stubbs may.

That's why Stubbs should probably be dealt.

mth123
09-17-2011, 12:14 PM
I don't think either Heisey or Sappelt has as much trade value as they might earn in value to the Reds.

Stubbs may.

That's why Stubbs should probably be dealt.

Agreed and if the Reds are set on keeping Alonso, Stubbs may be the only other guy they could afford to deal who may be desirable in a package for a starting pitcher.

wlf WV
09-17-2011, 01:04 PM
Agreed and if the Reds are set on keeping Alonso, Stubbs may be the only other guy they could afford to deal who may be desirable in a package for a starting pitcher.

That's what it seems to me. Most of the high return guys are being thought of as integral pieces of next years team.(more valuable to us than trade value)

traderumor
09-17-2011, 02:30 PM
Sappelt is little more than Darnell McDonald. Keep him around for 4th OFer, choose between Stubbs/Heisey, deal the other and move on. Personally, I'd choose Heisey because I think he is the better player.

fearofpopvol1
09-17-2011, 03:08 PM
I don't think either Heisey or Sappelt has as much trade value as they might earn in value to the Reds.

Stubbs may.

That's why Stubbs should probably be dealt.

I fully agree with this. If there was a package deal and it included Stubbs and helped the team, I'd fully support it.

mth123
09-17-2011, 03:23 PM
Heisey has this year hit a home run roughly every 14 AB's. Drew Stubbs has 575 AB's. The math is interesting to consider.

The math is fun, but I just don't think it will hold up with regular PT. I'd expect 20 to 25 HRs tops from Heisey. not the 41 that the math converts to. I still maintain he's Cody Ross JR if he fulfills his potential. He's a similar defender who can play all three spots but is just OK in CF and pretty good in a corner. On offense, if he has a good year it will probably look something like Cody Ross' numbers from 2008 or 2009. Some POP with a slugging % above .450 and an OBP in the .320 range. That would make him adequate at whatever role he fills. It would be more than enough in CF replacing Stubbs in the 6 or 7 hole, but not enough IMO to be the middle of the order bat that apparantly Alonso will become next season. If he has an off year, it may just look like Ross' 2011 (Still OK in CF here given how the rest of the team is constructed).

He's definitely a good player and can contribute to a good team, but he's not an offensive centerpiece and because of his tweener mix of offense and defense is better suited to be a part timer who gets 350 to 400 PAs on a team built to win 100 games.

IslandRed
09-17-2011, 04:51 PM
Stubbs covers a lot of ground from gap to gap and that makes him a good defender (and a better choice to help cover for some one like Alonso if he's out there), but I do think he's over rated because of not only his speed, but his smooth fluid motion out there. It is very enjoyable to watch Stubbs play CF because he seems so smooth and under control, but as CF play goes, he has some flaws. He's not real good at going back on the ball IMO and I think he tends to play deeper than the elite CFers do because of it. A lot of the great CFers that I've seen would play a couple of steps in and still be able to go back on balls hit over their heads. It allows them to do the thing that great CFers do that Drew doesn't really excel at, which is turn a bunch of those dinkers hit in front of them into outs instead of base hits. As Lollipop said, he looks little tentative out there and he lets balls fall in front of him that I think should be caught. I think part of that is because he's playing deeper than the great CFers that I've seen play. IIRC, Paul Blair was the master of playing a couple of steps in and gobbling up a lot of those flairs and soft liners hit over second base. IMO, to be a great CFer, a guy has to do more of that than what we see out of Stubbs.

I think that's a fair and accurate analysis, and your first sentence is spot on -- if they're really committing to the idea of Alonso being the everyday left fielder next year, they really need Stubbs' gap range. But they also need him to get it back together at the plate.

Caveat Emperor
09-17-2011, 05:00 PM
Sappelt is little more than Darnell McDonald. Keep him around for 4th OFer, choose between Stubbs/Heisey, deal the other and move on. Personally, I'd choose Heisey because I think he is the better player.

The comp I keep coming back to is Norris Hopper, but either way I agree -- Sappelt should not be in any conversation about the 2012 Reds beyond "bench bat / 5th OF" status.

I've not liked a thing I've seen from Sappelt since he was called up.

IslandRed
09-17-2011, 05:03 PM
Been saying it since early in 2010. He's not aggressive enough to be a real good CF. He's got a good arm, and that's an important asset, and he can run down certain balls if he's got plenty of room without the threat of collision. Solid CF, but nothing "special."

Reds have a true surplus here -- Stubbs, Heisey, Sappelt, Phipps. Phipps is the intriguing wildcard, given that he is said to have a shutdown arm.

Problem is, all of the four are flawed to the point where, no matter which one has the job, we'd be wondering what it would take to upgrade.

Stubbs = severe contact issues holding back his offensive game; best defender of the four but needs another step to get to star level

Heisey = another low-OBP, high-SLG type; good arm, but range is unremarkable by the standards of major-league center fielders

Sappelt = bat not yet proven in the show; good range in center, but the arm is an invitation for all-you-can-take extra bases

Phipps = not really in the discussion IMHO. Bat exploded out of nowhere, but he's already 26 and guys who don't do anything until they're old for their levels usually come back to the pack; has played more RF than center

lollipopcurve
09-17-2011, 05:44 PM
Problem is, all of the four are flawed to the point where, no matter which one has the job, we'd be wondering what it would take to upgrade.

Most big league regulars are flawed. I see what the Reds have as legitimate CF depth from which they can deal. Maybe it's for a CF upgrade (Kemp, AJones), but even if it's to get pitching, I think the team comes out better, no matter who they fill with in house.

Patrick Bateman
09-17-2011, 06:01 PM
I'm of the proponent that you need 4 good OF'ders to get through a season Look at the 99 team, the extra outfielders were a gift. The numbers that all of Cameron, Vaughn, Young, Hammonds, and Tucker put up made it possible to have 3 good players in the outfield every day in any kind of match-up. If an injury went down, then you have a substitue at the ready for 3 positions.

I keep them all unless it's a dealbreaker to get a Shields, but I don't think it should be. If traded a Heisey we would need to replace him. Sappelt doesn't look like much to me. A tweenerish fielding CF with a bad arm, and a Jerry Hairston like bat. He's porbably going to be a compromise as a starter at any position, I'd greatly prefer not to rely on him as the defacto number 4 guy. Just too many at-bats for a 4th outfielder to rely on him in that role. Like him more as the number 5 guy.

I think in total, if the Reds want to be a really solid team throughout the 25 man roster, they are going to have to trade some of the prospects. Trading a Heisey or a Stubbs just makes another big hole. Any trade involving those guys for a starter could make a 5 win difference for a guy like Shields, but it could also open up a 2 loss difference in the OF. If the goal is to have an 88 team on paper, it's not a bad idea, but to get to 93+ wins which a lot of people want so a repeat of this year doesn't happen, I think it's a tough pill to swallow.

lollipopcurve
09-17-2011, 06:14 PM
Trading a Heisey or a Stubbs just makes another big hole.

Disagree. Especially with "big."

mth123
09-17-2011, 08:21 PM
I'm of the proponent that you need 4 good OF'ders to get through a season Look at the 99 team, the extra outfielders were a gift. The numbers that all of Cameron, Vaughn, Young, Hammonds, and Tucker put up made it possible to have 3 good players in the outfield every day in any kind of match-up. If an injury went down, then you have a substitue at the ready for 3 positions.

I keep them all unless it's a dealbreaker to get a Shields, but I don't think it should be. If traded a Heisey we would need to replace him. Sappelt doesn't look like much to me. A tweenerish fielding CF with a bad arm, and a Jerry Hairston like bat. He's porbably going to be a compromise as a starter at any position, I'd greatly prefer not to rely on him as the defacto number 4 guy. Just too many at-bats for a 4th outfielder to rely on him in that role. Like him more as the number 5 guy.

I think in total, if the Reds want to be a really solid team throughout the 25 man roster, they are going to have to trade some of the prospects. Trading a Heisey or a Stubbs just makes another big hole. Any trade involving those guys for a starter could make a 5 win difference for a guy like Shields, but it could also open up a 2 loss difference in the OF. If the goal is to have an 88 team on paper, it's not a bad idea, but to get to 93+ wins which a lot of people want so a repeat of this year doesn't happen, I think it's a tough pill to swallow.

Agree in theory, but if we're keeping all three of Stubbs, Alonso and Heisey, how in the heck do we get a pitcher that is an upgrade and not just another question mark for the mix? I don't think the other "prospects" can do it. Teams want players who are major league ready for the most part and I don't see the Reds getting some one the caliber of James Shileds for a package of say Grandal and Hamilton. You may nab a Jeff Niemann or a John Danks for that kind of a deal, but are they really fixes or simply more "depth."

IMO, going with Sappelt and Frazier in the OF mix with Bruce, Alonso and one of Stubbs or Heisey is a lesser evil than ignoring the rotation or throwing more back end guys at it. I'd love to keep them both, but I don't see it. Heck, I'm skeptical that the Reds can get what they need even if they deal Stubbs or Heisey. I'm guessing Alonso will have to go in the package to get some one of the caliber we want/need who also will fit into the budget.

dougdirt
09-17-2011, 09:15 PM
For those of you who aren't impressed by Sappelt.... give it time. The kid can and will hit. He started off slowly, but is hitting .298/.340/.426 over his last 53 PA. I think that he is that kind of hitter, with a little bit more power.

Patrick Bateman
09-17-2011, 10:49 PM
Disagree. Especially with "big."

Replacing either's production on the open market likely requires at least 10M to do so.

At the same time, I'm arguing that I don't think Sappelt comes close to filling either's shoes. You are big on him, so you disagree, which is fine. But from an external replacement it would be expensive to fill.

Even if you are high on Sappelt, he is still an unproven commodity, who in a brief stint, IMO has appeared overmatched, and his skills have appeared to look worse than advertised (again, that's okay if you disagree there too). Regardless, I think it's probably a good idea not to hand the 4th OF'der keys to Sappelt as a plan, simply because he'd be guaranteed to get tons of playing time and easily become a potential starter for long periods of time. I'm not comofrtable with that unless moving Heisey or Stubbs goes a very long way to helping the pitching issue.