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powersackers
09-20-2011, 03:58 PM
TexasDave pointed out in last nights game thread that the Reds pitchers have the worst combined WAR in the NL, and the position players have the best combined WAR in the NL. He asked if the problem this season is our hitting or our pitching.

I believe the problem is called losing; and WAR may not explain it much. Where's adjusted WAR for close and late? What if you get all your postive WAR numbers from games where you team is losing 12-2 and you make it a 12-6 loss with a Grand Slam, you still lost but your WAR goes up. WAR is meaningless to actual team wins right?

I suppose its great for comparing numbers and total output above replacement, but not wins.

Is this groundbreaking thinking, or am I late to the party?

drowg14
09-20-2011, 05:14 PM
TexasDave pointed out in last nights game thread that the Reds pitchers have the worst combined WAR in the NL, and the position players have the best combined WAR in the NL. He asked if the problem this season is our hitting or our pitching.

I believe the problem is called losing; and WAR may not explain it much. Where's adjusted WAR for close and late? What if you get all your postive WAR numbers from games where you team is losing 12-2 and you make it a 12-6 loss with a Grand Slam, you still lost but your WAR goes up. WAR is meaningless to actual team wins right?

I suppose its great for comparing numbers and total output above replacement, but not wins.

Is this groundbreaking thinking, or am I late to the party?

I agree with you. WAR isn't really going to tell you how good your team is, and using it as a sole means of comparing/evaluating players isn't a good idea. Especially since the Defensive side of WAR can be misleading. Not sure how exactly it is used though. ESPN has been happy to regurgitate it quite a bit lately, however their analysis usually comes up a bit lacking, as it usually does.

smixsell
09-20-2011, 07:13 PM
WAR, like ALL STATISTICS only tell 50% of the story AT BEST.


Unfortunately over half of all baseball fans (and about 90% of all sportswriters <smile>) know little to nothing about how the game is played so they obsess over the only comparative factors that are accessable to them---STATISTICS.

smixsell
09-20-2011, 07:16 PM
I believe the problem is called losing; and WAR may not explain it much. Where's adjusted WAR for close and late? What if you get all your postive WAR numbers from games where you team is losing 12-2 and you make it a 12-6 loss with a Grand Slam, you still lost but your WAR goes up. WAR is meaningless to actual team wins right?

Is this groundbreaking thinking, or am I late to the party?

You are spot on, the observation is true of WAR as it is of all statistics. Your idea is not new to me but it is going to be alien or anathama to many fans, who have statistics as their only method for evaluating players, teams, or understand the game.

Razzle
09-21-2011, 04:23 AM
war, like all statistics only tell 50% of the story at best.


Unfortunately over half of all baseball fans (and about 90% of all sportswriters <smile>) know little to nothing about how the game is played so they obsess over the only comparative factors that are accessable to them---statistics.
I'm going to venture a lot less people understand advanced metrics than they do baseball.

Vottomatic
09-21-2011, 09:16 AM
I have no statistics to back my next comment up, but I really feel like our bullpen is a big part of the problem. They never seem to be able to hold a lead.

smixsell
09-21-2011, 11:49 AM
I'm going to venture a lot less people understand advanced metrics than they do baseball.

Irrelevant comment.

texasdave
09-21-2011, 02:28 PM
I'm going to venture a lot less people understand advanced metrics than they do baseball.

Of course if you understand baseball, then there really is no need to understand advanced metrics.

smixsell
09-21-2011, 06:32 PM
Of course if you understand baseball, then there really is no need to understand advanced metrics.

Yep. :)

brm7675
09-21-2011, 08:22 PM
I have no statistics to back my next comment up, but I really feel like our bullpen is a big part of the problem. They never seem to be able to hold a lead.

Was it that or how they were used to best support the starting pitching?

smixsell
09-22-2011, 08:47 PM
Was it that or how they were used to best support the starting pitching?

We have the horses to make an EXCELLENT bullpen. We just have a retarded man in charge of those horses.

smixsell
09-22-2011, 09:02 PM
A game in SF I went to this year is a prime example. Wood was our starter and he got hit hard all game, but had only given up 1 or two runs after 6 thanks to several "at em " balls and a couple of huge baserunning gaffes by the Giants.

So Baker gets Arredondo to warm up HOT (very fast and hard---I was in the third row by the Reds bullpen) apparently to come in to start the 7th. Then he changes his mind and lets Wood, who was getting hammered all game but incredibly lucky, pitch the seventh. Arrendondo is throwing pretty hard in the pen to stay ready throughout the top of the 7th, but Wood finishes the inning.

Then Baker brings in MASSET in the 8th and makes Jose wait for about 30-45 minutes (and the night was BITTER COLD) and then has Jose warm up again and pitch the 9th despite having other relievers available. And of course Jose has very little in the tank when he comes in and gets the loss.

I could see how Jose's velocity was down during his second warmup session in the pen, and was already telling all the Giant fans around me what a bad move it was for Baker to 1) fail to bring him in in the 7th as initially planned. I even think HE LET WOOD BAT in the top of the 7th in order to keep him in! ....and then to compound this error by using Jose about an hour after getting him HOT in such a hurry during the Reds top of the 7th.

Classic moronic Baker.

Ohayou
09-23-2011, 09:27 PM
Really, most of the players people think of as good will rate well in sabermetrics. Sabermetrics usually just validates what we already know. It isn't out to play contrarian whose sole purpose is to reverse common understanding, and they're not iconoclasts who seek to destroy everything we hold as sacred in baseball. "Willie Bloomquist is secretly the most valuable player in baseball, and Albert Pujols actually belongs in Single-A! Spread the word! 80% of this nation's GDP goes into the Yankees payroll, but WAR indicates that they're really only worth the stale, chalky, 25-year old piece of gum in 1987 packs of Topps Baseball Cards!! Simple-minded scorers have accidentally swapped Craig Kimbrel's K and BB rates - his 14.8 BB/9 rate and his 3.4 K/9 make him the worst pitcher of all-time! OF ALL-TIME!! Spread the word! Vernon Wells is actually underpaid!!! ahhhhhhh--" Then security tackles them before they can go any further and takes them to a place far, far away...