PDA

View Full Version : Phillips returning.



Wheelhouse
09-21-2011, 02:18 PM
Per MLB Trade Rumors (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/09/jocketty-says-phillips-will-be-back.html)

Benihana
09-21-2011, 02:25 PM
Well, that's good. [/Forrest Gump voice]

Rojo
09-21-2011, 02:37 PM
Two plus a club option third? Would BP go for that?

Benihana
09-21-2011, 03:11 PM
Two plus a club option third? Would BP go for that?

That would be an ideal bridge to Hamilton/Torreyes.

mdccclxix
09-21-2011, 04:13 PM
I'm in for scrapping the 2012 contract and signing a 5/55 or 4/48 or 3/40. However, I often wish teams would FRONTLOAD their contracts to make sure they don't overpay an old guy. I don't think he'll age poorly. He's already lost a step on the bases and just put up a great year. He'll always hit .275 and play GG defense. He keeps in great shape, plays hurt, never had a drop of alcohol, and produces when healthy. This, I think, is the first year he's been fully healthy in 3-4 years. He hits up and down the lineup.

_Sir_Charles_
09-21-2011, 05:22 PM
I'm in for scrapping the 2012 contract and signing a 5/55 or 4/48 or 3/40. However, I often wish teams would FRONTLOAD their contracts to make sure they don't overpay an old guy. I don't think he'll age poorly. He's already lost a step on the bases and just put up a great year. He'll always hit .275 and play GG defense. He keeps in great shape, plays hurt, never had a drop of alcohol, and produces when healthy. This, I think, is the first year he's been fully healthy in 3-4 years. He hits up and down the lineup.

Agreed completely. I don't think I'd go 5 years though. 2-4 should be plenty. If they go 2 years, I'd add on a year or two as optional.

Johnny Footstool
09-21-2011, 05:45 PM
He plays Gold Glove defense in that he's very flashy and can make incredible plays. However, his dWAR is usually right around 0.

And he has said he won't give the Reds any kind of discount.

Dan
09-21-2011, 06:01 PM
I often wish teams would FRONTLOAD their contracts to make sure they don't overpay an old guy.

Me too. I wonder why clubs don't pursue this concept more. Having lower salaries later in contracts would enable much greater roster flexibility.

Homer Bailey
09-21-2011, 06:03 PM
He plays Gold Glove defense in that he's very flashy and can make incredible plays. However, his dWAR is usually right around 0.

And he has said he won't give the Reds any kind of discount.

Clearly you are not using Fangraphs' WAR. Only Chase Utley has been better at 2B over the past five years at 2B than BP has using Fangraphs UZR, which is used to compute WAR.

Rojo
09-21-2011, 06:10 PM
Me too. I wonder why clubs don't pursue this concept more. Having lower salaries later in contracts would enable much greater roster flexibility.

Because GM's don't know if they'll be around in five years.

oneupper
09-21-2011, 06:20 PM
Me too. I wonder why clubs don't pursue this concept more. Having lower salaries later in contracts would enable much greater roster flexibility.

Players who were outperforming their contracts would always want to renegotiate.

15fan
09-21-2011, 06:39 PM
Me too. I wonder why clubs don't pursue this concept more. Having lower salaries later in contracts would enable much greater roster flexibility.

The problem is that the flexibility is at the end of the contract. It hamstrings the club in the present.

Why pay big bucks now for a guy to be a centerpiece on a contender right now if it means you don't have the money to give him the supporting cast necessary to compete?

jojo
09-21-2011, 07:01 PM
That Phillips will be a Red in 2012 is not news at all. it was all but a given. The real news will be whether an extension gets worked out or not.

Homer Bailey
09-21-2011, 07:07 PM
I'll be pretty disappointed/confused if the Reds don't extend Phillips, yet don't make any other moves in the offseason to "go for it" in 2012.

GAC
09-21-2011, 07:18 PM
While I think (hope) they rework his contract and sign him multiple years, I have to laugh at Phillips, or any ballplayer, who thinks it's a "slap in the face" to exercise an option that pays them $12M/year... even if it's only for one year. Give me a break! ;)

Always Red
09-21-2011, 07:21 PM
"No homeboy discount, it's my last contract"

That implies BP wants many years. Would surprise me to see him with the Reds after the All Star break next year.

UKFlounder
09-21-2011, 07:23 PM
Time value of money concepts may come into it as well, at least if the John Allen types are involved.

"A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow" is the basic theory - if you pay, say $5 million now and $12 million in a few years, that extra $7 million can at least theoretically be saved and earn some interest during that time.

Maybe that has nothing to do with it at all, but I'll offer it as a thought anyway. :)

RedsManRick
09-21-2011, 07:46 PM
Time value of money concepts may come into it as well, at least if the John Allen types are involved.

"A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow" is the basic theory - if you pay, say $5 million now and $12 million in a few years, that extra $7 million can at least theoretically be saved and earn some interest during that time.

Maybe that has nothing to do with it at all, but I'll offer it as a thought anyway. :)

Usually that's accounted for when the contract is redone. You'll usually see some premium to offset the expected depreciation due to inflation and often there will be a bonus on top of that as an incentive to do in the first place.

I think Phillips could land a pretty big haul in a trade, if only because he's not going to accept arbitration short of a disaster season. But I'm not sure who we'd trade him to: SF? NYM? CWS? DET?

PuffyPig
09-21-2011, 07:55 PM
Me too. I wonder why clubs don't pursue this concept more. Having lower salaries later in contracts would enable much greater roster flexibility.

Becuase paying a dollar later is cheaper than paying a dollar today.

Back loading contracts is a way to pay less.

dougdirt
09-21-2011, 08:22 PM
That would be an ideal bridge to Hamilton/Torreyes.

I would be more concerned about bridging to HRod/Gregorius than guys in Low A.... I like the guys from Dayton, but they both have a long way to go in order to be what the guys from Dayton in 2010 have become.

mbgrayson
09-22-2011, 12:17 AM
I think the Reds should try to sign him. I know a lot rides on how many years he demands, but we can't just keep trading away solid, mature players hoping that we might develop talent in the minors. That is too much like KC or Pittsburgh or several other clubs. Once we have MLB ready talent at 2nd base, then we can look to move BP down the road for the right deal.

The next two years we should contend, and I think we need BP in the mix. Besides, I like the guy....and I follow him on Twitter....

BuckeyeRedleg
09-22-2011, 12:21 AM
I want BP to retire a Red.

Hopefully a long term contract can be reasonable.

WVRedsFan
09-22-2011, 01:15 AM
While I think (hope) they rework his contract and sign him multiple years, I have to laugh at Phillips, or any ballplayer, who thinks it's a "slap in the face" to exercise an option that pays them $12M/year... even if it's only for one year. Give me a break! ;)Agents fill these players full of this stuff. "Don't take anything less than market value." IOW's the agents make more money. And players leave a place they like and are comfortable with. Give me one year at $12 million, but I'm not worth it.

lollipopcurve
09-22-2011, 10:20 AM
I have always been a big Phillips supporter. But I don't think the Reds should be sinking big $$$ into 2B. Especially if Brandon is saying no discount.

mdccclxix
09-22-2011, 10:30 AM
"No homeboy discount, it's my last contract"

That implies BP wants many years. Would surprise me to see him with the Reds after the All Star break next year.

Yeah, the Reds can't really be in the business of "paying people what they're worth" if that means "paying people what the Yankees pay people". We'll see how much he thinks he should get. My upper threshold is 12 million per year for him since you can't frontload the "better money" and 15 million at 35 and, say, injured or slumping would mar his legacy.

I'll be upset if they can't afford him. Especially with the money they didn't have to give Arroyo for the next 2 years. I like Arroyo, but he crowds the rotation even if he is an insurance policy on their youth.

Adding Phillips at 12 per, along with Cordero at say 7 per would mean 70 million in 2013 for

Votto
Bruce
Phillips
Cordero
Cueto
Arroyo
Chapman
Hanigan

With Arb 1 for
Stubbs
Leake
Heisey
Ondrusek

And Arb 2 for
Bailey

And Arb 3 for
Bray
Volquez

Not to mention fringe players that may or may not factor like:
Janish
Arredondo
Burton
Masset


Basically, in 2013 the Reds will have to bump payroll roughly 10 million to keep Phillips, or by then they'll have to trade Votto if they can't raise payroll. In that case, there would only be approx. 10-15 million for, say, a TOR pitcher to be or have been added.

Tough call in this context. Perhaps they don't resign Cordero. Or, perhaps 1 year, 2013, at 85-90 million will be passable due to the fact Arroyo's off the books in 2014 and we're also talking about 2 years in a row in the playoffs. :thumbup::beerme:

Ghosts of 1990
09-22-2011, 11:02 AM
I'm glad BP is coming back. Heart and soul of the Reds. I think we better succeed next year in the standings if we as fans want the Reds to hang onto him.

jojo
09-22-2011, 06:11 PM
I'm glad BP is coming back. Heart and soul of the Reds. I think we better succeed next year in the standings if we as fans want the Reds to hang onto him.

If the Reds fail to finish .500 this season, they will have had exactly 1 winning season since Phillips became a Red. If Phillips is the heart and soul, that would seem to be an argument for a heart transplant.

westofyou
09-22-2011, 06:24 PM
Let him decline on someone elses dime.

KronoRed
09-22-2011, 06:28 PM
Pick up the option, let him whine or not, then move on, he wants 5 years at least.

RedsManRick
09-22-2011, 07:35 PM
I would be more concerned about bridging to HRod/Gregorius than guys in Low A.... I like the guys from Dayton, but they both have a long way to go in order to be what the guys from Dayton in 2010 have become.

Is Valaika a possible stop gap or will his bat not play? Could Frazier do a Jeff Kent and hit enough to make up for a lack of range?

dougdirt
09-22-2011, 07:54 PM
Is Valaika a possible stop gap or will his bat not play? Could Frazier do a Jeff Kent and hit enough to make up for a lack of range?

Valaika has 1300+PA's in AAA with a sub .675 OPS. I wouldn't count on him at all. Frazier at 2B was a disaster. He couldn't figure out the footwork going the opposite way from what he was used to on the other side of the infield.

Personally, I would start both Henry Rodriguez and Didi Gregorius in AAA next year. I would watch their development and see where I felt things were in July before even considering talking to Phillips about an extension. And even then, he wouldn't like the years I would be willing to offer.

It could be pushing a guy like Gregorius slightly too quickly (he began the year on the DL with some kidney issues before splitting 363 PA's between A+/AA), but the Reds need to figure out what to do for 2013 and Gregorius has to be considered as an option unless they already have it in their heads that they are going out to get a free agent.

RedsManRick
09-22-2011, 08:15 PM
Valaika has 1300+PA's in AAA with a sub .675 OPS. I wouldn't count on him at all. Frazier at 2B was a disaster. He couldn't figure out the footwork going the opposite way from what he was used to on the other side of the infield.

Personally, I would start both Henry Rodriguez and Didi Gregorius in AAA next year. I would watch their development and see where I felt things were in July before even considering talking to Phillips about an extension. And even then, he wouldn't like the years I would be willing to offer.

It could be pushing a guy like Gregorius slightly too quickly (he began the year on the DL with some kidney issues before splitting 363 PA's between A+/AA), but the Reds need to figure out what to do for 2013 and Gregorius has to be considered as an option unless they already have it in their heads that they are going out to get a free agent.

Or we could just sign Jose Reyes and slide Cozart over. :evil:

dougdirt
09-22-2011, 08:15 PM
Or we could just sign Jose Reyes and slide Cozart over. :evil:

Ok, you sold me.

RedsManRick
09-22-2011, 08:26 PM
Ok, you sold me.

Or option #2, trade Votto for Rickey Romero and Brett Lawrie. Or would Lawrie be just as bad as Frazier?

dougdirt
09-22-2011, 08:33 PM
Or option #2, trade Votto for Rickey Romero and Brett Lawrie. Or would Lawrie be just as bad as Frazier?

At second base, he would probably be just as bad or worse. Would be a great grab for third though.

Matt700wlw
09-24-2011, 02:29 AM
Walt is going to meet with his agent next week in New York to discuss an extension.

kpresidente
09-24-2011, 03:40 PM
Me too. I wonder why clubs don't pursue this concept more. Having lower salaries later in contracts would enable much greater roster flexibility.

Winning compounds itself.

If you win now, that's likely to increase revenues, which increases the likelihood of winning later (and thus even higher revenues - presumably offsetting the backloaded contract).

AmarilloRed
09-24-2011, 10:47 PM
It's worth mentioning that Brandon's 2012 club option becomes mutual if he is traded.

Always Red
09-25-2011, 08:50 AM
Winning compounds itself.

If you win now, that's likely to increase revenues, which increases the likelihood of winning later (and thus even higher revenues - presumably offsetting the backloaded contract).

Also, as Wimpy used to say in the Popeye cartoons, "I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today."

Matt700wlw
09-27-2011, 07:17 PM
Walt met with Brandon's people today and exchaged numbers.

We see what happens.

dougdirt
09-27-2011, 07:19 PM
Walt met with Brandon's people today and exchaged numbers.

We see what happens.

It sounds like they are quite a ways apart. My guess is, the Reds offered something like 2 more years beyond what he has and he wants 5 more years or so beyond what he has now.

RedsManRick
09-27-2011, 07:50 PM
It sounds like they are quite a ways apart. My guess is, the Reds offered something like 2 more years beyond what he has and he wants 5 more years or so beyond what he has now.

Yeah, I could see Walt offering 2/25 and a mutual option and Phillips' camp wanting 5/70.