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Benihana
09-22-2011, 09:34 AM
I am not in favor of bringing him back next year for a penny more than $5MM. If he is brought back, the silver lining might be that it could/would reaffirm the Reds commitment to making Chapman a starter.

HOWEVER, is it time to admit that his contract was actually a success?

Most of us liked the first couple years of his deal, but very few (no one?) expected him to perform like an All-Star closer throughout the remainder of his deal. Color me surprised.

mdccclxix
09-22-2011, 09:38 AM
I always liked the deal from the perspective that it deflated Milwaukees bullpen the year after they went to the playoffs with that strong young core of players. Edit: Nevermind, they went to the playoffs in Cordero's first year as a Red. I still like stealing things from Milwaukee. It seemed to be an effective counter move on a division rival. The overpay was worth it from that perspective, but it still didn't bring a winner to a rebuilding franchise in Cincinnati, so it will always be a 50/50 type of story up to this point. If he extends for 3 years and closes some playoff wins, I think we'll all grow to love Cordero that much more. Loyal, we are.

oneupper
09-22-2011, 09:56 AM
Bringing Cordero back could mean using Chapman as a starter. That's a risk, but a risk a team that needs to gain 15-20 wins should make.
If the Price is right, go for it.

mdccclxix
09-22-2011, 09:58 AM
I looked at similar career saves totals to his, and many, not surprisingly, drop off pretty close to 37-39 years old. However, Cordero's fastball still seems pretty strong. I think he's worth a look at 4-6 million for 2 more years while we try Chapman in the rotation and Boxberger perhaps emerges as the heir. With some success, he could join the 400 saves club as a Red and also be near the top, or the top, saves leader in Reds history. He's already gotten his "no homeboy" contract, maybe it's time he took a Ramon style deal. There certainly is more risk for his decline going forward.

RANDY IN INDY
09-22-2011, 10:11 AM
I'm not a big fan of bringing Cordero back unless it is a "very favorable," contract for the Reds. It will be interesting to see the comments next year if Chapman is, indeed, a starter, and struggles early.

camisadelgolf
09-22-2011, 10:28 AM
Cordero was grossly overpaid, but he--or someone similar--was a necessary addition. The signing worked out about as well as you could've hoped, but it was hardly a success. He never should've been paid more than $9M/year, and that's being generous.

Kc61
09-22-2011, 10:30 AM
Reds have to make several important changes this off-season if they are to contend next year. Many of these will necessarily involve getting players from outside the organization.

In the case of closer, if they can sign Cordero for $7.5 million per year for two years, or less, I think it's ok. It would likely give the team an acceptable closer for two years without breaking the bank.

It would be one spot that is easily resolved. And allow management to concentrate on the many other needs of this team.

If Coco demands more money or a longer contract, I'd go elsewhere.

Sea Ray
09-22-2011, 10:40 AM
I do think the 4 yr deal worked out but I'm not excited about bringing him back. He does not have a put away pitch and that's quite an indictment if you're a closer. I'd be OK with bringing him back at $5mill but I wouldn't want that to give them the idea that they don't need to quit looking for another closer. Frankly I'd make him continue to earn the job. I could see Dusty just continue to give him the ball and never give another thought to using someone else in the 9th inning. I think that'd be dangerous

mbgrayson
09-22-2011, 10:41 AM
I agree on bringing him back for 1 or 2 years, and paying him in the range of $4 to $5 million per year.

I never liked his original contract, and I still don't. It was NOT good for the Reds. A small to mid market team just can't pay that much ($44 million over 4 years) for a closer. The difference between Cordero and league average was not enough to justify the money. Who else could have been added to the team if we had paid $6 or $7 million less for a closer each year these last few years?

Even this year, where Cordero has been better than in 2010, his numbers are not in the elite category. As a quick example, look over at the web site 'Closer News' (http://www.closernews.com/2011/09/weekly-planner-919-928.html). When they last ranked the thirty closers in MLB, they have Cordero ranked 15th, right in the middle.

Look at the 14 closers above Cordero in the rankings. At least 6 or 7 of them make less than half the money that he does.

If the Reds can't sign him for a good price, I would take our chances on going with Boxberger in 2012. He will probably struggle, and we will lose a couple of extra games because of it. But Walt would have enough extra money to sign one more decent player, which would win a few extra games for them. Most good free agent relievers will cost far less than $5 to $6 million.

Keep in mind that Cordero's strikeout rate dropped again this year. When the Reds first signed him, he was striking out 10 batters per nine innings. Here is his last 5 years of K/9 rates:

2007 MIL 12.2
2008 CIN 10.0
2009 CIN 7.8
2010 CIN 7.3
2011 CIN 5.4

So although his ERA is down a full run from 2010, and his WHIP is down big time (from 1.43 to .96), that is mostly due to a big drop in his walk rate (down to 2.3 BB/9 from 4.5 BB/9 last year), and a very lucky BABIP rate of .210.

That BABIP is simply not going to be repeated next year. The league average rate that batted balls become hits is about .300, and Cordero's career rate is .294, which is exactly what it was in 2010. The 2010 Cordero is much closer to what whoever signs him next year should expect. Regression is inevitable....

PuffyPig
09-22-2011, 12:33 PM
I As a quick example, look over at the web site 'Closer News' (http://www.closernews.com/2011/09/weekly-planner-919-928.html). When they last ranked the thirty closers in MLB, they have Cordero ranked 15th, right in the middle.



I think your example was too quick.

It's a ranking for fantasy purposes for the next 10 games.

It is not a ranking of closers per se.

RedsManRick
09-22-2011, 12:40 PM
Less focus on saving games and more focus on creating games that need saving please. A "proven" closer is icing; we need to be spending our limited resources on the cake.

Cordero seems like a good dude. But he's a mediocre reliever. His low ERA & WHIP this year are due in large part to some really awesome defense behind that has lowered his hit rate (.210 BABIP). I know BABIP is partially within a pitchers' control, but you don't go from being a .294 career BABIP pitcher to a historically great BABIP guy at the age of 36 while simultaneously lowering your K rate and increasing your GB rate.

I subscribe to the rather a year too early than a year too late philosophy. Like others have said, if you can bring him back on a deal that is clearly in the Reds favor (1 yr, $3M), great. Any more than that and you're paying him for his clubhouse presence and what the guys behind him have done.

And no, his contract was not a success. If created a huge burden on the FO's ablity to make other moves while providing solid but not spectacular on field performance. For 1/3 of the price we could have gotten just as much production by just keeping Jeremy Affeldt. Or to put it another way, Cordero converted 86% of his save opportunities (6 of every 7) -- how hard is that to do?

IslandRed
09-22-2011, 12:50 PM
We paid Cordero more than I would have liked, but he did what we paid him to do. Given the volatile history of closers, getting it done for four years without getting hurt or (for more than a few minutes) losing the job due to poor performance was rather exceptional, and perhaps it's worth a premium to save a ballclub from frequent rescue operations on the back end of the bullpen of the sort we've seen other clubs endure.

Worth paying the premium again at his age? No.

Worth paying it to anyone else, given where the Reds are? Probably not.

Edd Roush
09-22-2011, 12:56 PM
I hate that small market teams pay 10% of the team's payroll for a guy who pitches roughly 5% of the team's innings. Runs allowed in the 8th hurt as much are runs allowed in the ninth.

I really don't want Cordero back for more than $3M. There are going to be guys with much better strikeout numbers out there for a much lower price.

mbgrayson
09-22-2011, 02:23 PM
I hate that small market teams pay 10% of the team's payroll for a guy who pitches roughly 5% of the team's innings. Runs allowed in the 8th hurt as much are runs allowed in the ninth.

I really don't want Cordero back for more than $3M. There are going to be guys with much better strikeout numbers out there for a much lower price.

Agreed. But it is more than 10% of payroll.

The Reds have a total payroll this year of $80,826,667. (This figure is from HERE (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/).) Cordero makes $12 million this year. By my calculations, the Reds are paying him 14.8% of their total payroll.

Edd Roush
09-22-2011, 04:15 PM
Agreed. But it is more than 10% of payroll.

The Reds have a total payroll this year of $80,826,667. (This figure is from HERE (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/).) Cordero makes $12 million this year. By my calculations, the Reds are paying him 14.8% of their total payroll.

That makes it hurt even more. Closers are the most overpaid players in maybe all of sports (since managers are not active players). I just wish the Reds would worry about fixing the top of the rotation and left field (if we must deal Alonso to get a starter) and not worry about who will be pitching less than 100 innings for the Reds next year.

osuceltic
09-22-2011, 04:57 PM
Less focus on saving games and more focus on creating games that need saving please. A "proven" closer is icing; we need to be spending our limited resources on the cake.

Cordero seems like a good dude. But he's a mediocre reliever. His low ERA & WHIP this year are due in large part to some really awesome defense behind that has lowered his hit rate (.210 BABIP). I know BABIP is partially within a pitchers' control, but you don't go from being a .294 career BABIP pitcher to a historically great BABIP guy at the age of 36 while simultaneously lowering your K rate and increasing your GB rate.

I subscribe to the rather a year too early than a year too late philosophy. Like others have said, if you can bring him back on a deal that is clearly in the Reds favor (1 yr, $3M), great. Any more than that and you're paying him for his clubhouse presence and what the guys behind him have done.

And no, his contract was not a success. If created a huge burden on the FO's ablity to make other moves while providing solid but not spectacular on field performance. For 1/3 of the price we could have gotten just as much production by just keeping Jeremy Affeldt. Or to put it another way, Cordero converted 86% of his save opportunities (6 of every 7) -- how hard is that to do?

He's juicing! Or ... maybe he just changed his approach!

Captain Hook
09-22-2011, 05:11 PM
Agreed. But it is more than 10% of payroll.

The Reds have a total payroll this year of $80,826,667. (This figure is from HERE (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/).) Cordero makes $12 million this year. By my calculations, the Reds are paying him 14.8% of their total payroll.

If Cordero takes a 7-9 million dollar pay cut(seems most are suggeting he needs to) to stay in Cincinnati after the year he's had I think everyone should be very thankful to CoCo.I for one thinks he could get at least 8-9 million somewhere else.

mth123
09-22-2011, 07:52 PM
If Cordero takes a 7-9 million dollar pay cut(seems most are suggeting he needs to) to stay in Cincinnati after the year he's had I think everyone should be very thankful to CoCo.I for one thinks he could get at least 8-9 million somewhere else.

Maybe. If so, I'd let him do it. The relief market is flooded. I'd go $5 Million for 2 years at the very most (not $5 Million per year). Of course, I'm of the opinion that moving Chapman into the rotation will be a disaster so I'd rather just let both Coco and Masset go and sign one cheap vet to mentor a young pen that should include Wood, LeCure, Ondrusek, Arredondo, Chapman and Bray. My vote is Jason Isringhausen for $1 Million and a few incentives. The likely cost of Masset and Coco will be 8 figures combined and the Reds need that for a veteran starter and maybe a LF.

Griffey012
09-22-2011, 09:19 PM
The Reds could have spent CoCo's 12 million a year on much worse resources. Sure we overpaid, but at least we got production out of it. It seems like this team has about 20 million tied up on a yearly basis in wasted money. Think of all the 2 and 3 million dollar contracts we gave to guys like Lincoln, Hairston, Merker, Coffey, Freel, Patterson, Taveras, etc. Not to mention the other millions we tied up in Arroyo for no necessary reason.

Looking back, I doubt we would have spent his 48 million over 4 years much differently, or in a better fashion. No big time free agent slugger is coming here for that kind of contract. And we are not the kind of team that can afford to give a guy 15 million for 7 or 8 years.

mbgrayson
09-22-2011, 10:05 PM
The Reds could have spent CoCo's 12 million a year on much worse resources. .....Looking back, I doubt we would have spent his 48 million over 4 years much differently, or in a better fashion. No big time free agent slugger is coming here for that kind of contract. And we are not the kind of team that can afford to give a guy 15 million for 7 or 8 years.

Today the Cardinals re-signed Lance Berkman for another year at $12 million on a one year contract. This year Berkman has produced 4.6 WARP, and leads the league with a OPS+ of 169. Berkman would have looked pretty good in left for the Redlegs.....

PuffyPig
09-22-2011, 11:06 PM
Today the Cardinals re-signed Lance Berkman for another year at $12 million on a one year contract. This year Berkman has produced 4.6 WARP, and leads the league with a OPS+ of 169. Berkman would have looked pretty good in left for the Redlegs.....


He would have looked great hitting.

He looks terrible in the OF.

WVRedsFan
09-23-2011, 01:07 AM
I've changed. As much as Codeto drives me nuts, and since the Reds have been so pitiful the last few months, I watched a lot of gmes and I've come to the conclusion that CoCo is not much worse than any of the closers. So if they resign him, I'm okay with that, but not at a premium price. Small market teams don't need to do that, so I imagine Mr. Codero will head for the money, if there is any out there.

marcshoe
09-23-2011, 02:53 AM
I can't imagine that Cordero will return for a dollar amount that would make sense for the Reds. He can demand the big bucks in the off season. He had a very nice season and has pitched well for most of his contract, but paying him what he'll get on the free market would be a waste of resources.

GAC
09-23-2011, 04:20 AM
I can't imagine that Cordero will return for a dollar amount that would make sense for the Reds. He can demand the big bucks in the off season. He had a very nice season and has pitched well for most of his contract, but paying him what he'll get on the free market would be a waste of resources.

I agree. He's not going to take that big of a pay cut as many suggest on here as a condition for his return, and he doesn't have to. He's gone.

mth123
09-23-2011, 04:24 AM
I can't imagine that Cordero will return for a dollar amount that would make sense for the Reds. He can demand the big bucks in the off season. He had a very nice season and has pitched well for most of his contract, but paying him what he'll get on the free market would be a waste of resources.

:thumbup:

757690
09-23-2011, 10:36 PM
The Reds need to completely overhaul their bullpen. Getting rid of Cordero would be a nice start.

Including Cordero, the Reds have no one in the pen who can shut the door on the opponent. There isn't a pitcher currently on the Reds who I would want in next years pen.

M2
09-25-2011, 10:36 PM
In retrospect, the Reds milked every ounce out of Cordero's contract. Yeah, he's pitched lucky this year, but who's going to quibble with some luck when closing out a multi-year deal? Cordero just tied John Franco for 2nd overall in saves in team history. He's recorded four of the team's top 10 seasons for saves.

I'd string him year-to-year with a much more modest contract too, but in terms of his current contract, the team paid him to do a job that he did about as well as anyone could have asked. 20 years from now, when people are debating who's on the All-Time Reds team, there's a very good chance Francisco Cordero will be the consensus closer.

So appreciate that you got to watch him and that, for the past four years, the Reds enjoyed relative stability at the end of the bullpen.

Sea Ray
09-26-2011, 09:47 AM
Hal McCoy said this morning on the radio that the Reds will likely re-sign Coco to a 2 yr deal at something less than the $12mill he's currently getting because they want him back and he wants to come back. Sounds to me like a Bronson Arroyo situation where the Reds overplay their cards. My guess is they're about to overpay

signalhome
09-26-2011, 10:06 AM
Hal McCoy said this morning on the radio that the Reds will likely re-sign Coco to a 2 yr deal at something less than the $12mill he's currently getting because they want him back and he wants to come back. Sounds to me like a Bronson Arroyo situation where the Reds overplay their cards. My guess is they're about to overpay

I believe you're right. I hope that you're not.

REDREAD
09-26-2011, 10:27 AM
Let's put the money aside for a moment..

Not many people are that enthused about bringing Cordero back, unless it's a bargain contract.

Not many people like Masset (I've seen some suggestions to DFA him).

A lot of people want Chapman in the rotation next year.

That's three slots in the bullpen to fill next year. (All three whom had important roles) It may have been done before, but probably not that often (a team bringing in three setup/closer type relievers in one offseason).

Top relivers are kind of rare. That's why closers make so much money. It may not be optimal use of money, but that's the market place.

I guess my point is this.. if one of Cordero, Masset, or Chapman is in the same role next year, I expect a lot of the board to be upset, but it's just not that easy to come up with alternatives that are effective. I'm sure no one wants to trade Alonso for a relief pitcher, for example. For every reliever signed off the junk pile that puts up a good year, there's about 10 that fail.

PuffyPig
09-26-2011, 10:49 AM
The Reds need to completely overhaul their bullpen. Getting rid of Cordero would be a nice start.

Including Cordero, the Reds have no one in the pen who can shut the door on the opponent. There isn't a pitcher currently on the Reds who I would want in next years pen.

Getting 7 releivers via FA or trade ain't going to happen.

Relievers aren't particularly consistent, so getting 7 guys who were good in 2011 doesn't mean they will be good in 2012.

Sea Ray
09-26-2011, 10:56 AM
I've seen no motivation on Chapman's part to be a starter. I've seen no effort to work in off speed pitches or to set a hitter up. I could see him going the route of Papelbon and getting comfortable with relieving and as a result never seeing the starting rotation. I don't think that's what the Reds brass has in mind so this needs to be worked out

TRF
09-26-2011, 11:40 AM
In retrospect, the Reds milked every ounce out of Cordero's contract. Yeah, he's pitched lucky this year, but who's going to quibble with some luck when closing out a multi-year deal? Cordero just tied John Franco for 2nd overall in saves in team history. He's recorded four of the team's top 10 seasons for saves.

I'd string him year-to-year with a much more modest contract too, but in terms of his current contract, the team paid him to do a job that he did about as well as anyone could have asked. 20 years from now, when people are debating who's on the All-Time Reds team, there's a very good chance Francisco Cordero will be the consensus closer.

So appreciate that you got to watch him and that, for the past four years, the Reds enjoyed relative stability at the end of the bullpen.
Quoted just because M2 rarely posts anymore.

That and I agree 100%.

_Sir_Charles_
09-26-2011, 11:42 AM
I personally don't think the bullpen was that big of a problem. I think the biggest problem the bullpen had was that it got ridiculously overworked in the first quarter of the season and they fell apart in the second half.

Some guys were VERY good for extended stretches. Cordero was very good (albeit luck induced) most all season long. Ondrusek was very good in the first half. Bray was probably our best reliever until the end. Chapman had some serious stuff for extended periods. Masset struggled most all season long, but he's got flat out TREMENDOUS stuff and he's shown that he can be very successful. I just plug him into the pen and expect him to rebound. LeCure was VERY good most all year long too. With Chapman most likely going to the rotation, it seems to me that his slot is the one that needs to be refilled. Otherwise, I'm quite happy with the bullpen. I also expect Cordero to come back at a more modest salary. Arredondo will be one more year away from TJ surgery. That looks like a solid pen to me. It's very low on my list of needs for 2012.

1st half

Ondrusek 44 games / 43 ip / 1.67 era / 1.12 whip
Bray 46 games / 29 ip / 2.12 era / 1.01 whip
LeCure 19 games / 43 ip / 2.72 era / 0.98 whip
Cordero 39 games / 39 ip / 2.95 era / 1.08 whip (but prior to that brewers series just before the break...1.69 era)
Arredondo 24 games / 23 ip / 3.04 era / 1.44 whip
Masset 44 games / 46 ip / 3.13 era / 1.33 whip
Chapman 24 games / 21 ip / 4.57 era / 1.38 whip (but pitched much better in the second half)

2nd half

Ondrusek 21 games / 18 ip / 7.00 era / 1.94 whip (don't tell me he didn't get overworked in the first half)
Bray 31 games / 17 ip / 4.76 era / 1.12 whip (ditto...tired down the stretch)
LeCure 23 games / 33 ip / 5.08 era / 1.07 whip
Cordero 27 games / 28 ip / 1.93 era / 0.82 whip
Arredondo 27 games / 27 ip / 3.29 era / 1.35 whip (pretty consistent all year...just not there yet I think)
Masset 29 games / 22 ip / 5.24 era / 2.06 whip (overworked on top of a down year)
Chapman 29 games / 27 ip / 2.96 era / 1.21 whip (walks down considerably though)

Those numbers scream overworked to me. And I don't blame Dusty, I blame the starters for not pitching well.

mbgrayson
09-26-2011, 03:16 PM
Those numbers scream overworked to me. And I don't blame Dusty, I blame the starters for not pitching well.

Well, some of the relief pitchers were used very heavily in the first half. Every time one got called in, it was Dusty B. Baker that made the call.

Overall, the Reds bullpen has pitched 489 innings to date, the 7th most in the NL. The most innings so far has been Pittsburgh at 515, and the least has been Philly at 395. (Of course if you have Halliday, Lee, Hamels, and Oswalt as your 4 best starters, you don't need many relief innings).

The NL average (mean) is 470 innings to date, so the Reds relief corp has pitched 19 innings more than average this year.

Performance wise, the Reds bullpen overall in 2011 has a 3.61 ERA (9th of 16 NL teams), a 1.32 WHIP (12th in the NL) has given up 219 BBs (2nd most in the NL), 47 HRs (4th in the NL), has 22 blown saves (7th in the NL). (These numbers are from HERE (http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/pitching/split/128/league/nl/sort/thirdInnings/order/true).)

While I think the starters have indeed underperformed expectations, so has the bullpen. I think Dusty has been slow to react, and he won't ususally change his usage pattern until a guy has been terrible 3 or 4 times in a row.

As to Logan Ondrusek, if your numbers are right, how can it not be Dusty's fault that he is over-worked if he was used 44 times for 43 innings in the first 81 games? Logan's numbers are actually quite similiar to 2010: his ERA is a little better, his WHIP is a fair bit higher due to more walks, his K rate a touch higher, his BABIP a bit higher, but still low, and his HR/9 is lower.

But with three games left to play, the Reds bullpen has been BETTER than it was in 2010:
Reds bullpen
2010: 3.97 ERA (7th), 1.35 WHIP (8th), 488 innings (7th).
2011: 3.61 ERA (9th), 1.32 WHIP (12th), 489 innings (7th).

I don't think the bullpen is the main problem, but it is a problem. It would certainly be better to have them pitch less. If we look at starter stats, they are indeed worse than in 2010.

Reds Starters:
2010: 4.05 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 112 HRs allowed in 965 innings.
2011: 4.46 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 135 HRs allowed in 943 innings.

The starters ERA going up 4/10s of a run per game, and giving up 23 more HRs (so far) is obviously a big issue. However, if in the next three games we add another 17 or 18 starter innings, the actual number of innings pitched by the Reds starters will almost exactly match last year.

_Sir_Charles_
09-26-2011, 03:52 PM
Well, some of the relief pitchers were used very heavily in the first half. Every time one got called in, it was Dusty B. Baker that made the call.

True, but it's not like he had many options. When your starters are regularly not going past the 4th & 5th innings (or the 2nd & 3rd in Volquez's case), there's going to be heavy work loads. And it happened a TON in the first 2 months. Dusty's hands were tied by the starters. So no, I don't blame Dusty. He had to have SOMEONE pitch those innings. Walt should've brought up more arms.


Overall, the Reds bullpen has pitched 489 innings to date, the 7th most in the NL. The most innings so far has been Pittsburgh at 515, and the least has been Philly at 395. (Of course if you have Halliday, Lee, Hamels, and Oswalt as your 4 best starters, you don't need many relief innings).

Our pen's workload has lessened considerably in the second half. I mean by a BUNCH. But the damage was already done.


As to Logan Ondrusek, if your numbers are right, how can it not be Dusty's fault that he is over-worked if he was used 44 times for 43 innings in the first 81 games? Logan's numbers are actually quite similiar to 2010: his ERA is a little better, his WHIP is a fair bit higher due to more walks, his K rate a touch higher, his BABIP a bit higher, but still low, and his HR/9 is lower.

Because the starters were failing at a phenomenal rate and someone had to pitch those innings. Logan, simply put, was pitching VERY well. He was getting his days off, but when Masset was imploding and Chapman was walking half the league, the workload had to get shifted to someone else...unfortunately it ended up being Logan (they were still babying Arredondo due to the TJ). Personally I think it's more Walt's fault than Dusty's. When we were struggling with out starters as badly as we were (Homer & Cueto out, Bronson throwing doo-doo, Volquez & Wood serving up batting practice), we should've gone a position player short and brought up more arms early on to spread out the workload more. But they just kept the pitchers on the roster who weren't cutting it and making it harder on the relievers. That's not Dusty's call...it's Walt's. So if anybody was slow to pull the trigger, it's Mr. Jocketty IMO.

As for Logan's numbers...look at them for the first half. There was a considerable improvement from last year IMO. But the workload just took a toll on him. But that's just one pitcher. Once the Starters failed to get deep early on, the dominos just started falling and the aftereffects are still being felt.

nate
09-26-2011, 03:56 PM
I wouldn't give him anything other than a handshake and a "thanks."

OK, maybe a high five too.

:cool:

mdccclxix
09-26-2011, 04:47 PM
http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2011/09/26/reds-cordero-talking-about-him-returning/

Sea Ray
09-26-2011, 05:10 PM
http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2011/09/26/reds-cordero-talking-about-him-returning/

Where'd they get this from?


Cordero is 5-3 with a 2.53 ERA and 35 saves in 40 chances. Hes converted 19 of 20 saves after the All-Star Break.

Baseball-reference shows two blown saves in May, three in July and one most recently on Sept 15th.

Strikes Out Looking
09-26-2011, 07:22 PM
If the starters can consistently go at least 6, sometimes 7, then the Bullpen takes care of itself. When the starters are lucky to go 4 or 5, there will be bullpen problems no matter who is pitching in the bullpen. Thus, if the starters don't do well, it doesn't matter if its Cordero in the 9th or someone else (see 2010, Cordero wasn't very good but the starters were and the Reds won the division).

757690
09-26-2011, 07:35 PM
Getting 7 releivers via FA or trade ain't going to happen.

Relievers aren't particularly consistent, so getting 7 guys who were good in 2011 doesn't mean they will be good in 2012.

Obviously the guys under team control will come into compete next spring. But I would bring in as many cheap bullpen arms in to compete as possible. I'm not calling for using resources to rebuild the bullpen.

Benihana
09-27-2011, 08:11 AM
I'd offer Cordero $5M for 1 year or $8M for 2 years. If he takes the two years I let Masset walk and replace him with Boxberger. Keep Arredondo, Bray and Ondrusek. Let LeCure battle it out in ST with Volquez and Maloney if they're not traded.

Start stretching Chapman out to start in Louisville. If Coco only signs for one year then Id likely bring Masset back.

Hopefully Boxberger is ready to take over the closer role in 2013 or 2014 once Cordero's (and Masset's) time is up.

Sea Ray
09-27-2011, 09:08 AM
I'd offer Cordero $5M for 1 year or $8M for 2 years. If he takes the two years I let Masset walk and replace him with Boxberger. Keep Arredondo, Bray and Ondrusek. Let LeCure battle it out in ST with Volquez and Maloney if they're not traded.

Start stretching Chapman out to start in Louisville. If Coco only signs for one year then Id likely bring Masset back.

That's fine but it's more complicated than just merely stretching out Chapman. He needs to gain control of his off speed pitches.

Benihana
09-27-2011, 10:08 AM
That's fine but it's more complicated than just merely stretching out Chapman. He needs to gain control of his off speed pitches.

That's fine, he has all year to figure it out as far as I'm concerned. He's not really "needed" for the rotation until 2013 anyway.*





* Provided of course Walt can figure out a way to acqurie a frontline starter in the offseason via trade or FA.

M2
09-27-2011, 09:47 PM
I'd offer Cordero $5M for 1 year or $8M for 2 years. If he takes the two years I let Masset walk and replace him with Boxberger. Keep Arredondo, Bray and Ondrusek. Let LeCure battle it out in ST with Volquez and Maloney if they're not traded.

Start stretching Chapman out to start in Louisville. If Coco only signs for one year then Id likely bring Masset back.

Hopefully Boxberger is ready to take over the closer role in 2013 or 2014 once Cordero's (and Masset's) time is up.

Solid plan. Though Lecure seems to have found himself a role as a long man. I haven't seen Horst, but on paper he looks like a sleeper. Ondrusek is a guy I'd be wary of. He looks the part, but he's fairly hittable.

Ron Madden
09-28-2011, 04:20 AM
I wouldn't give him anything other than a handshake and a "thanks."

OK, maybe a high five too.

:cool:

:thumbup: :beerme:

Ron Madden
09-28-2011, 04:52 AM
I'd offer Cordero $5M for 1 year or $8M for 2 years. If he takes the two years I let Masset walk and replace him with Boxberger. Keep Arredondo, Bray and Ondrusek. Let LeCure battle it out in ST with Volquez and Maloney if they're not traded.

Start stretching Chapman out to start in Louisville. If Coco only signs for one year then Id likely bring Masset back.

Hopefully Boxberger is ready to take over the closer role in 2013 or 2014 once Cordero's (and Masset's) time is up.

I hate the thought of paying mega millions of dollars for relief pitchers while I'm paying three of the five starters in my rotation the league minimum. Something just seems wrong with that picture to me.

However, I'd be willing to bet that Nick Masset will be more productive and do more to earn his pay than Cordero will in 2012.

PuffyPig
09-28-2011, 07:05 AM
I'd offer Cordero $5M for 1 year or $8M for 2 years. If he takes the two years I let Masset walk and replace him with Boxberger. Keep Arredondo, Bray and Ondrusek. Let LeCure battle it out in ST with Volquez and Maloney if they're not traded.

Start stretching Chapman out to start in Louisville. If Coco only signs for one year then Id likely bring Masset back.

Hopefully Boxberger is ready to take over the closer role in 2013 or 2014 once Cordero's (and Masset's) time is up.

Massett might be the first guy I'd bring back.

Even as bad as he's been, he's likely our best bet in 2012.

Roy Tucker
09-28-2011, 10:11 AM
I don't know if Masset is pitching hurt or if he's just the second coming of Todd Coffey.

He's been good before. Either something is wrong or it was just a fluke that he was good for a while (league caught up to him or something). These things happen.

Cordero put on quite the show last night.

lollipopcurve
09-28-2011, 10:13 AM
Cordero put on quite the show last night.

Not the kind of showing you want when on the brink of signing a new deal. He did not look right last night. Seen the guy 100+ times, and never an outing like that.

mdccclxix
09-28-2011, 10:30 AM
Was looking just now and Cordero has 4 of the top 10 seasons in saves in Reds history. Next year with 32 saves he'll tie Danny Graves for the all time lead. If he puts up 73 more saves, he'll reach 400 and be in the top 7, I believe. With 100 more he'll be top 5. It will be interesting to see if he can do it, perhaps as a Red. Going year to year with him is a good idea, I think. But a 2 year deal for 5 mil per wouldn't hurt too much.

Sea Ray
09-28-2011, 10:33 AM
Cordero has had control problems before. He's known for his 3 ball counts on hitters. When he doesn't look right is when Dusty needs to give the ball to someone else. He didn't look right in that series before the All Star break yet Dusty continued to feed him the ball to dire consequences. This is where you evaluate a manager's judgement. In the off season we will get to evaluate management's judgement. Me thinks they are about to make an expensive mistake that will cost this team both money and wins

RANDY IN INDY
09-28-2011, 10:41 AM
There was definitely something wrong with Cordero last night. He looked totally out of sorts on the mound and you don't expect that from a veteran like Cordero. May have just been a blip on the radar, but definitely something that management should consider going forward.

lollipopcurve
09-28-2011, 10:42 AM
There was definitely something wrong with Cordero last night. He looked totally out of sorts on the mound and you don't expect that from a veteran like Cordero. May have just been a blip on the radar, but definitely something that management should consider going forward.

Agree 100%. It should give them pause.

mdccclxix
09-28-2011, 11:07 AM
Agree 100%. It should give them pause.

3rd day pitching in a row might have something to do with it.

RANDY IN INDY
09-28-2011, 11:13 AM
That really should not be a problem, in my opinion. That's what good closers should be able to do, and if that really is the case, they might want to take that into consideration when they think about re-signing him.

Far East
09-28-2011, 11:27 AM
...Let LeCure battle it out in ST with Volquez and Maloney if they're not traded...
On Tuesday night, Lecure was the Reds' best pitcher, throwing 7 of 7 pitches for strikes, for three outs, including Harris and Wright.

He might or might not have closer "stuff," but he appears at least to have closer mentality.

Roy Tucker
09-28-2011, 11:32 AM
On Tuesday night, Lecure was the Reds' best pitcher, throwing 7 of 7 pitches for strikes, for three outs, including Harris and Wright.

He might or might not have closer "stuff," but he appears at least to have closer mentality.

Its the 'stache. :)

mdccclxix
09-28-2011, 11:37 AM
On Tuesday night, Lecure was the Reds' best pitcher, throwing 7 of 7 pitches for strikes, for three outs, including Harris and Wright.

He might or might not have closer "stuff," but he appears at least to have closer mentality.

You won't hear me scuttle about LeCure, I love his role in the pen and that back door fastball on lefties is the stuff of closers.



Split G PA AB R H HR BB SO SO/BB BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
as Starter 4 85 77 12 19 4 5 19 3.80 .247 .301 .506 .808 .278 144 117
as Reliever 38 219 198 21 38 6 16 53 3.31 .192 .263 .328 .591 .230 83 70


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com (http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/sharing.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool): View Original Table (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=lecursa01&year=2011&t=p&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#sprel)
Generated 9/28/2011.

nemesis
09-28-2011, 12:42 PM
I've thought to myself that LeCure might be the best in house option for closer in the Reds pen.

As a reliever his ERA is 3.32 which was inflated by the one week of bad outings in a row.

His WHIP is 0.95, BAA .189, K rate is around 8.50... All closer like numbers.

He is on the cheap for another 2 years. Save that 10/12 million over the next 2 years on Cordero and give a guy like LeCure the chance. These are the moves teams like the Reds have to make. After those 2 years then you get Boxberger on the cheap for 4 more...

mdccclxix
09-28-2011, 12:48 PM
I've thought to myself that LeCure might be the best in house option for closer in the Reds pen.

As a reliever his ERA is 3.32 which was inflated by the one week of bad outings in a row.

His WHIP is 0.95, BAA .189, K rate is around 8.50... All closer like numbers.

He is on the cheap for another 2 years. Save that 10/12 million over the next 2 years on Cordero and give a guy like LeCure the chance. These are the moves teams like the Reds have to make. After those 2 years then you get Boxberger on the cheap for 4 more...

I can't argue. Between LeCure, Masset and Arredondo, the Reds do have some dice they can roll at closer. I think Lecure would easily overtake Axford in the facial hair contest.

TRF
09-28-2011, 12:51 PM
I'm down with LeCure as closer.

mdccclxix
09-28-2011, 12:58 PM
CL LeCure
RP Arredondo
RP Willis
RP Ondrusek
RP Bray
RP Masset
Longman Maloney/Horst/Other

Chapman probably returns to the pen in August as well.

REDREAD
09-28-2011, 05:44 PM
I think if you let Cordero walk, you almost have to sign or trade for a solid reliever.
Yes, that's difficult and possibily expensive, but there's just too many question marks in the pen for a contender.

I would love to package a couple of our B prospects like Frasier, Sappelt, etc for a decent reliever. Not sure it's possible, but it would be nice.

mbgrayson
09-28-2011, 07:09 PM
I've thought to myself that LeCure might be the best in house option for closer in the Reds pen.

As a reliever his ERA is 3.32 which was inflated by the one week of bad outings in a row.

His WHIP is 0.95, BAA .189, K rate is around 8.50... All closer like numbers.

He is on the cheap for another 2 years. Save that 10/12 million over the next 2 years on Cordero and give a guy like LeCure the chance. These are the moves teams like the Reds have to make. After those 2 years then you get Boxberger on the cheap for 4 more...

Great post...I agree completely.

Now, you understand that there is exactly a zero percent chance that the Reds actually do this, right? Walt and Dusty are not 'Moneyball' guys, not at all. And this is a classic Moneyball move, making a closer out of a slightly above-average relief pitcher.

Here are my top reasons for doing this:
1. It would save millions per year. While we speculate that Cordero might take a 50% pay cut to get a 2 year deal, I just don't believe it. My fear is that the Reds will re-sign him for two years, at a total cost of $20 million, and claim they got a 'bargain'. (I pray that I am wrong....). Even if the Reds do get Coco for $5 or $6 million per year, they could save millions with a guy like LeCure. That money could go a long way to filling other gaps on the team, like getting a good starter.

2. Cordero will regress big time next year. There is no way we ever again see a year from him with a .214 BABIP. Cordero's K rate is dropping. He relies more and more on balls hit in play becoming outs.

3. If LeCure were to excel in this role, you could trade him after a few good years, and get an inflated return if there are any GMs out there not familiar with Billy Beane's 'Flip this closer' philosophy.

4. Let's compare Sam LeCure to Andrew Bailey, the A's latest closer project, with Cordero's numbers thrown in at the end. Here are the similarities:

-Andrew Bailey, born in May of 1984, never saved games in the minors, and in fact started 15 games in AA in 2008, his last minor league season.
-Sam LeCure, born in May of 1984, never saved games in the minors, and in fact started 15 games in AAA in 2010, his last minor league season.

-Andrew Bailey had a K/9 rate this year of 8.85, and a BB/9 rate of 2.66, a 37.7% groundball rate, and a HR/9 rate of .66 (Oakland).
-Sam LeCure had a K/9 rate this year of 8.47, and a BB/9 rate of 2.40, a 45.8% groundball rate, and a HR/9 rate of 1.14 (GABP).
-Cordero had a K/9 rate this year of 5.43, and a BB/9 rate of 2.84, a 50% groundball rate, and a HR/9 rate of .78 (GABP).


-Andrew Bailey had a 0-4 record, a 3.32 ERA, and a 1.13 WHIP.
-Sam LeCure had a 2-1 record, a 3.71 ERA, and a 1.00 WHIP.
-Francisco Cordero had a 5-3 record, a 2.45 ERA, and a 1.02 WHIP.

-Andrew Bailey saved 23 out of 25 games he was asked to save (92%), and earned a salary of $465,000.
-Sam LeCure saved 0 out of 0 games he was asked to save, and earned a salary of $414,000.
-Francisco Cordero saved 37 out of 43 games he was asked to save (86%), and earned a salary of $12,000,000.

This is my single biggest pet peave with Dusty Baker and Walt Jocketty; they didn't even bother to TRY LeCure at the closer position. We have known for weeks that we were out of the race, and we still had to help Coco get his save numbers. That's great for player relations, but is poor for preparing the team for 2012. Why not try players in new roles and see how they do?

Rojo
09-28-2011, 07:28 PM
I think if you let Cordero walk, you almost have to sign or trade for a solid reliever.
Yes, that's difficult and possibily expensive, but there's just too many question marks in the pen for a contender.

I would love to package a couple of our B prospects like Frasier, Sappelt, etc for a decent reliever. Not sure it's possible, but it would be nice.

Rockies want to move Street. $7.5 million next year. Still only 28 and was terrific two years ago. The Moneyball crowd on here would explode.

Broxton's interesting with the usual caveat of price and the unusual caveat that his troubles were related to a ballclub suffering from McCourtitis and not health.

I'm also fine with trying LeCure as a closer. I'd keep Chapman in the pen as well. Bray and Dondo too. Ondrusek's filler. Willis would be a nice LOOGY but is a free agent and I can't see him re-signing to be a LOOGY. Masset? Well I just plain hate Masset. Let him have his mediocre Todd Coffey-career somewhere else.

PuffyPig
09-28-2011, 09:38 PM
If LeCure were to excel in this role, you could trade him after a few good years, and get an inflated return if there are any GMs out there not familiar with Billy Beane's 'Flip this closer' philosophy.



Well, if there was, you certainly let the cat out of the bag, didn't you?

marcshoe
09-28-2011, 10:17 PM
Is there any possibility Arredondo could get his walk rate under control enough to be an effective closer? Isn't this something that's affected by Tommy John? This is the first year with the Reds that Cordero's been under 4 walks per 9 innings; isn't it possible that Arredondo could put up numbers as good or better?

Are there other problems with Arredondo, with his career 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings (8.0 this year), closing?

wlf WV
09-28-2011, 11:17 PM
-Francisco Cordero had a 5-3 record, a 2.45 ERA, and a 1.02 WHIP.-

Prime example of ERA's ignorance.

RedsManRick
09-28-2011, 11:56 PM
Is there any possibility Arredondo could get his walk rate under control enough to be an effective closer? Isn't this something that's affected by Tommy John? This is the first year with the Reds that Cordero's been under 4 walks per 9 innings; isn't it possible that Arredondo could put up numbers as good or better?

Are there other problems with Arredondo, with his career 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings (8.0 this year), closing?

Possibility? Of course. And there's a possibility Volquez drops his BB rate and becomes an ace. But generally speaking, pitchers in their late 20's don't suddenly learn how to throw strikes. And in any event, I certainly wouldn't want to count on it.

kaldaniels
09-29-2011, 12:04 AM
Possibility? Of course. And there's a possibility Volquez drops his BB rate and becomes an ace. But generally speaking, pitchers in their late 20's don't suddenly learn how to throw strikes. And in any event, I certainly wouldn't want to count on it.

I remember making a remark that Jose was a dark horse candidate for closer and you responded that EV was yours. Was that just a prediction more than anything? Cause the same applies to Volquez. Just looking for your thought process on that more than anything. My initial remark was a prediction...I do not desire Jose to be the closer in 2012 at this point.

camisadelgolf
09-29-2011, 02:22 AM
LeCure had a strong year, and I hate to take away from it, but didn't he have a friendly BABIP? I'm not saying he doesn't deserve consideration, but if he's expected to regress, would you want him doing it while having the closer duties?

marcshoe
09-29-2011, 03:22 AM
Possibility? Of course. And there's a possibility Volquez drops his BB rate and becomes an ace. But generally speaking, pitchers in their late 20's don't suddenly learn how to throw strikes. And in any event, I certainly wouldn't want to count on it.

Not saying he'd become a different pitcher, just noting that his pre-surgery norm was similar to Cordero's previous years with the Reds. I'm not comfortable with a closer walking 4+ per 9, but I have to admit that I was surprised that Cordero had done so pre-2011. I'm sure the elite closers put up better numbers (as does Huston Street), but it seems that if the Reds don't spend money, they'll end up with someone with flaws. Which flaws are "more fatal" than others becomes the question.

I wish I was convinced on Lecure. His numbers were too different in 2010 and 2011 (including a .67 BABip drop). Maybe he is just a better pitcher out of the pen. Maybe it's just the fear of the unknown. And, of course, it may be that I have formed a picture of Lecure as a long man, and that picture's coloring my expectations.

mth123
09-29-2011, 06:33 AM
There are lots of relief options available. The fact is the Reds suffered a meltdown from 3 or 4 guys late in the season which IMO was due to the rotation being so awful during April, May and June. Once these guys were being used so much early, watching them run out of gas in August wasn't really a surprise. The single best thing that this team can do for this bullpen is bring in a proven. effective, guy who can give them 32 starts, provide competitive pitching pretty consistently, go deep into the game, and finsih the season with an ERA+ of 120 or more and about 210 innings pitched. If we want to spend money to help the pen, the rotation is where it needs to be spent. Add that addition to a bounce back from Arroyo to around an ERA+ of around 100 with 200 IP, getting another 35 or so innings from Cueto (even if he regresses a bit) and another 30 or so from Leake and you'll be surprised how much improved the bullpen will be with Bray, Arredondo, Ondrusek, Lecure and Wood filing out the middle. I'd get all of that settled first before committing any money to a save guy. The market will be loaded this year. I think the team can find a guy for cheap who can help the pen. I'd leave Chapman in as the back end guy, but if the team is intent on moving him to the rotation, then I'd bring back Masset as the designated 9th inning guy while keeping an open mind about moving Arredondo into that role (his second season back from TJ is reason to believe he'll be much better than he was in 2011) while keeping on eye on the progress of Brad Boxberger at AAA. I just wouldn't pay very much for a closer right now and focus on the rotation. Fix the starters and the relievers will improve right along with them IMO.