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lollipopcurve
09-23-2011, 12:23 PM
It seems clear the Reds need to work the winter trade market this year. The way I see it, there are a couple teams out there with whom they have a chance to do some real business -- the Marlins and the Blue Jays.

Marlins: Moving into a new stadium, looking to make a splash.

Why the match up works: Marlins need a CF. Reds have Stubbs and others. Miami has a large Cuban population. Reds have Chapman, Alonso and Grandal.

What the Reds could ask for: On the non-nuclear front, where the Reds offer the Marlins a CF, I like the idea of pursuing their young 3B, Matt Dominguez. He's an elite defender and has the potential to hit, IMO. A great kid for Rolen to groom, and he could use another full year in AAA. If Florida signs Aramis Ramirez, as they are rumored to want to do, Reds should pounce. This is a legit Gold Glove defender with upside offensively who the Reds would control for 6 years. Also, Chris Coghlan's stock has tanked in FLA and he could be a nice bounceback candidate (note that he's a Mississippi grad, like Cozart). If the Reds/Marlins want to think big, then the Reds can offer any of Chapman/Alonso/Grandal for a huge return, and you start talking names like Ramirez and Morrison (my guess is that Stanton is untouchable). I'm skeptical a deal of this magnitude could be consummated, but consider what the acquisition of Morrison could do in terms of freeing the Reds to deal Votto. Which leads me to.....

Blue Jays: Canada's team.

Why the match up works: Reds have Canada's player.

What the Reds could ask for: Pitching (the Reds biggest need), assuming they can't pry away Bautista. Start with Romero plus a prospect. Offer an arm to replace him (Volquez or Wood) and get a couple more real good prospects back (Marisnick and another arm). If no Romero, you ask for Morrow plus 3 top kids (2 arms plus Marisnick). Reds would control Morrow for 2 years (as long as they control Votto), and would have 3 nice talents to fall back on after that. I'd get 2 arms (they have lots of young pitching to choose from, much of it at AA or above) plus Marisnick. If Toronto needs a sweetener, throw in a decent prospect, but no top tenner. The Morrow option is obviously the riskiest, and it well could be that the Reds would prefer 4-5 prospects under longer control -- and Toronto does have the depth to do that. Likely the only way you do this kind of deal is if you get a bat like Morrison in another deal to soften the blow of losing Votto.

Bottom line: The Reds have stuff these teams are likely to jump at. That's the recipe for getting a good deal.

RedsManRick
09-23-2011, 01:11 PM
I LOVE the idea of Dominguez as a trade target. He's on a timeline that would compliment Rolen's situation and could be a long-term solution.

mth123
09-23-2011, 02:08 PM
I agree that the Marlins are a good fit with the Reds. I'm not real high on the idea of Dominguez though. His bat looks pretty suspect IMO. A .714 OPS at 3 levels in 2011, .744 in 2010 at AA and .753 in 2009. He was pretty young for those levels so he may come, but I'd prefer major league help in any deals. IMO, a good deal with the Marlins would be Stubbs, Volquez and Grandal for Anibal Sanchez and Logan Morrison. If Alonso is really going to be the man in LF, than I could see passing on Morrison and taking somebody like Dominguez, but frankly, I'm not real high on a guy who looks like the next Pedro Feliz (Moderate Power, poor OB skills and plus defense). Adding Morrison would free the Reds to deal Alonso for more pitching.

I'm not optimistic about the Jays. I don't really see them dealing Romero in a deal for middle of the order offense when they already have Bautista. Arencibia and Lind profile more as number 6 or 7 hitters in the AL and a guy like Lawrie may be too young to rely on, but I don't see them dealing the best pitcher on the roster for offense. Not even elite, home grown offense like Votto. It would be the same as suggesting the Reds should deal Cueto for Kevin Youkilis. Even if Youkilis was a lot younger, the Reds need more pitching not less, so I wouldn't do it. So, if Romero is out, that leaves Bautista as the only other guy I'd want in a Votto deal. I just don't see it. I just don't see the Jays dealing guys they have locked up for a guy who is a two year rental and due a big payday.

Two other teams that are possible are the Rays and the White Sox. The Rays have their ace in David Price. Jeremy Hellickson is right on his tail as a second number 1 in the making. James Shields is a solid number 2 starter who gives innings. Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann are solid number 4 types (if not better). Matt Moore is ready and is considered a potential ace on par with Price and Hellickson. Alex Cobb is another guy who is ready who may be another mid-rotation type and Alex Torres is probably ready too and may also become a legit major league starter. Shields is making $7 Million in 2012 and is under team control for 2013 and 2014 as well. The Rays reportedly want to keep the payroll around $40 Million and dealing his $7 Million to make room for a high cieling kid lke Moore makes sense in thier situation. Without Shields, they have 4 legitimate major leaue starters in the fold and two other kids like Cobb and Torres to turn to should Moore need more seasoning or if somebody goes down. If The Rays decide to hang onto Shields, Niemann is arb eligible and may be on the block instead. Either would be one of the Reds best 5 (Shields would be the number 2, if not number 1 in Cincy). Tee Rays also could use some offense and possibly help in CF. They really have no long term plan for 1B and C is the one spot in their system without a pretty good prospect. I'm sure they would have interest in both Alonso and Grandal. BJ Upton is also going to cost around $7 Million if not more in 2012 and is just a year from free agency. They have Jennings and Joyce with Guyer on the way, but may also have interest in a guy like Stubbs. Joyce is fairly splitty with lefties giving him trouble. Stubbs just so happens to feast on LHP wile providing plus plus defense and speed. He could play CF when he's in there to allow Jennings to save his legs a little and be the other half in a platoon with Joyce. He'd be a perfect fit actually. If the Rays could add offense with Alonso, the Catcher of the future with Grandal and/or add a perfect fit to the OF which would allow them to deal Upton, it would make a lot of sense. Removing both Upton and Shields from the payroll would be a big win for a cash strapped team. Upton could net another prospect or two and Shields would fit right into the Reds biggest need area.

The White Sox are reported to be willing to move a player who fits the other side who may allow the Reds to move Alonso in a pitching deal. Carlos Quentin is likely to be replaced in the OF by Dayan Viciedo and with Rios and Dunn pretty much fixtures due to their contracts, they may be looking to move some cash and get something before Quenton walks after the 2012 season. He'd be a rental, but might just be a perfect fit in LF as the RH power bat to stick between Votto and Bruce. If the Reds want to make a one year, all in, run for it while Phillips and Votto are still in the fold, Quentin may be a good option that may not cost a ton to acquire due to his rental status. He's a bit of a lefty killer with an OPS of .934 agaisnt them, but he's still capable against RHP with an OPS of .804. More interesting is that Chicago is supposed to be a hitters park, yet his OPS at home is only .688 while hitting a monstrous .988 on the road.

Edd Roush
09-23-2011, 02:17 PM
I agree that the Marlins are a good fit with the Reds. I'm not real high on the idea of Dominguez though. His bat looks pretty suspect IMO. A .714 OPS at 3 levels in 2011, .744 in 2010 at AA and .753 in 2009. He was pretty young for those levels so he may come, but I'd prefer major league help in any deals. IMO, a good deal with the Marlins would be Stubbs, Volquez and Grandal for Anibal Sanchez and Logan Morrison. If Alonso is really going to be the man in LF, than I could see passing on Morrison and taking somebody like Dominguez, but frankly, I'm not real high on a guy who looks like the next Pedro Feliz (Moderate Power, poor OB skills and plus defense). Adding Morrison would free the Reds to deal Alonso for more pitching.

I'm not optimistic about the Jays. I don't really see them dealing Romero in a deal for middle of the order offense when they already have Bautista. Arencibia and Lind profile more as number 6 or 7 hitters in the AL and a guy like Lawrie may be too young to rely on, but I don't see them dealing the best pitcher on the roster for offense. Not even elite, home grown offense like Votto. It would be the same as suggesting the Reds should deal Cueto for Kevin Youkilis. Even if Youkilis was a lot younger, the Reds need more pitching not less, so I wouldn't do it. So, if Romero is out, that leaves Bautista as the only other guy I'd want in a Votto deal. I just don't see it. I just don't see the Jays dealing guys they have locked up for a guy who is a two year rental and due a big payday.

Two other teams that are possible are the Rays and the White Sox. The Rays have their ace in David Price. Jeremy Hellickson is right on his tail as a second number 1 in the making. James Shields is a solid number 2 starter who gives innings. Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann are solid number 4 types (if not better). Matt Moore is ready and is considered a potential ace on par with Price and Hellickson. Alex Cobb is another guy who is ready who may be another mid-rotation type and Alex Torres is probably ready too and may also become a legit major league starter. Shields is making $7 Million in 2012 and is under team control for 2013 and 2014 as well. The Rays reportedly want to keep the payroll around $40 Million and dealing his $7 Million to make room for a high cieling kid lke Moore makes sense in thier situation. Without Shields, they have 4 legitimate major leaue starters in the fold and two other kids like Cobb and Torres to turn to should Moore need more seasoning or if somebody goes down. If The Rays decide to hang onto Shields, Niemann is arb eligible and may be on the block instead. Either would be one of the Reds best 5 (Shields would be the number 2, if not number 1 in Cincy). Tee Rays also could use some offense and possibly help in CF. They really have no long term plan for 1B and C is the one spot in their system without a pretty good prospect. I'm sure they would have interest in both Alonso and Grandal. BJ Upton is also going to cost around $7 Million if not more in 2012 and is just a year from free agency. They have Jennings and Joyce with Guyer on the way, but may also have interest in a guy like Stubbs. Joyce is fairly splitty with lefties giving him trouble. Stubbs just so happens to feast on LHP wile providing plus plus defense and speed. He could play CF when he's in there to allow Jennings to save his legs a little and be the other half in a platoon with Joyce. He'd be a perfect fit actually. If the Rays could add offense with Alonso, the Catcher of the future with Grandal and/or add a perfect fit to the OF which would allow them to deal Upton, it would make a lot of sense. Removing both Upton and Shields from the payroll would be a big win for a cash strapped team. Upton could net another prospect or two and Shields would fit right into the Reds biggest need area.

The White Sox are reported to be willing to move a player who fits the other side who may allow the Reds to move Alonso in a pitching deal. Carlos Quentin is likely to be replaced in the OF by Dayan Viciedo and with Rios and Dunn pretty much fixtures due to their contracts, they may be looking to move some cash and get something before Quenton walks after the 2012 season. He'd be a rental, but might just be a perfect fit in LF as the RH power bat to stick between Votto and Bruce. If the Reds want to make a one year, all in, run for it while Phillips and Votto are still in the fold, Quentin may be a good option that may not cost a ton to acquire due to his rental status. He's a bit of a lefty killer with an OPS of .934 agaisnt them, but he's still capable against RHP with an OPS of .804. More interesting is that Chicago is supposed to be a hitters park, yet his OPS at home is only .688 while hitting a monstrous .988 on the road.

mth, I wish I knew of a way to set up a meeting with you and Walt. I think all of these scenarios are well thought-out and would help the Reds compete in 2012 and 2013 (their window). I really hope Walt is active this off-season. Heaven knows we need to upgrade the rotation.

lollipopcurve
09-23-2011, 02:47 PM
I agree that the Marlins are a good fit with the Reds. I'm not real high on the idea of Dominguez though. His bat looks pretty suspect IMO.

Watch some of his video. He's got a retooled stroke -- nice and compact. I like the potential there.


I'm not optimistic about the Jays. I don't really see them dealing Romero in a deal for middle of the order offense when they already have Bautista. Arencibia and Lind profile more as number 6 or 7 hitters in the AL and a guy like Lawrie may be too young to rely on, but I don't see them dealing the best pitcher on the roster for offense.

You may be right. This is why I say the Reds may need to offer an arm to replace Romero, like Volquez or Wood. The lure of getting Votto may be enough to get them to bite. But I agree they may insist on holding Bautista and Romero. This opens the door to the Reds really raiding their system, which is a real good system. I'm pretty sure the Jays would deal Morrow, who has a chance to be dominant, and kids. It could be the last option they get to acquire Votto.


Removing both Upton and Shields from the payroll would be a big win for a cash strapped team. Upton could net another prospect or two and Shields would fit right into the Reds biggest need area.

Rays are another interesting matchup. It really comes down to how willing you want the Reds to be to sacrifice the future for a run in 2012, maybe 2013. I say maybe 2013 because Votto's salary is going to balloon in 2013, and if Phillips is still around then it may be hard to fit Votto's extra 8 million along with raises to Cueto, Bruce and whomever comes over from Tampa. In my view, the "all-in" window may only be a single year at this point. Still, if ownership is up for keeping Votto through the course of his contract, getting Shields for prospects is hard to argue against.


If the Reds want to make a one year, all in, run for it while Phillips and Votto are still in the fold, Quentin may be a good option that may not cost a ton to acquire due to his rental status.

Another solid option. A good RH bat for the middle of the order is much needed.

marcshoe
09-23-2011, 03:28 PM
I'm extremely dizzy from a Percocet I took about a half hour ago and can't read all the details, but the Marlins make a ton of sense as a trade target. I'm not sure what to do with Stubbs; i really like him, but would be willing to trade him. Big problem I'm seeing is that I'm afraid the 200 K's will bring down his value right now. I'm guessing Grandal is the Reds biggest bait at the moment, and Florida would be a good fit.

My first thought would be putting together a package for a pitcher plus Coghlan. then let Coghlan compete with Heisey, etc. for centerfield. the question would be what Miami (gotta get used to it) would be willing to part with as far as pitching goes. The Marlins have always been a team willing to trade anyone for the right offer. Would there be any possibility of putting a package together for Josh Johnson. I could see something like Chapman/Grandal/Stubbs for Johnson/Coghlin. But then, I'm pretty doped up at the moment. While I'm not sure there would be good reason to trade Johnson, I wonder how much Chapman's drawing power in the new stadium in Miami might weigh.

I'm not sure if I have confidence that Jocketty would pull the trigger on a blockbuster right now, but I think a blockbuster's exactly what the Reds need.

Sorry if this is incoherent. Blame the meds and the kidney stone that led to them being taken.

edit: a quick search says that Coghlan's a bit of a disaster defensively, so , even though I like what he's done offensively in the past, I don't think I'd want him in the cf mix.

mth123
09-23-2011, 05:44 PM
If you really want to deal Votto to help the future, maybe the place to look is San Francisco. Votto for Madison Bumgarner?

I wonder if the emergence of Ryan Voglesong, the possible return of Jonathon Sanchez, the steps forward for Eric Surkamp and the still lurking Barry Zito would allow the Giants to pull the trigger to upgrade the offense in a huge, huge way. The Reds would need to probably move several others (Stubbs, Volquez maybe Grandal) for a bat and hope that Alonso is for real, but that is one of the few Votto deals I'd be up for. Addresses a real problem with the current team in a major way, resolves the budget crunch for the next couple of years and has future written all over it.

Rojo
09-23-2011, 05:58 PM
At this point we'd be selling low on Stubbs. I'd rather see if he could put a batting average north of .280 for half a season and move him then.

I'm not interested in kids either. The window's open now.

mth123
09-23-2011, 06:08 PM
At this point we'd be selling low on Stubbs. I'd rather see if he could put a batting average north of .280 for half a season and move him then.

I'm not interested in kids either. The window's open now.

I get your point about Stubbs, but to take advantage of the window I want Heisey/Sappelt in CF. I'd move Stubbs for whatever decent help I could get.

Rojo
09-23-2011, 07:39 PM
I get your point about Stubbs, but to take advantage of the window I want Heisey/Sappelt in CF. I'd move Stubbs for whatever decent help I could get.

Playing time for Heisey/Sappelt alone isn't enough of an incentive for me. I'd want to get something back. At this point we won't.

Guacarock
09-23-2011, 08:51 PM
If you really want to deal Votto to help the future, maybe the place to look is San Francisco. Votto for Madison Bumgarner?

I wonder if the emergence of Ryan Voglesong, the possible return of Jonathon Sanchez, the steps forward for Eric Surkamp and the still lurking Barry Zito would allow the Giants to pull the trigger to upgrade the offense in a huge, huge way. The Reds would need to probably move several others (Stubbs, Volquez maybe Grandal) for a bat and hope that Alonso is for real, but that is one of the few Votto deals I'd be up for. Addresses a real problem with the current team in a major way, resolves the budget crunch for the next couple of years and has future written all over it.

Votto for Bumgarner is the right deal at the right time for both teams.

Then, I get on the phone with the Baltimore Orioles to do what it takes to acquire Adam Jones to play CF. If the O's added reliever Jim Johnson, I'd give them Stubbs, Volquez, Grandal and Masset.

Re-sign Cordero at a reduced rate (say $5 million per), negotiate an acceptable contract extension with Phillips, and shore up the bench with a LH pinch-hitter and spare outfielder (a perfect role for free agent Laynce Nix redux!) and that would be an extremely productive off-season.

Our 2012 squad and their possible/likely salaries:

C Mesoraco 0.4
C Hanigan 1.5
1B Alonso 1.4
2B Phllips 12
SS Cozart 0.4
3B Rolen 8.2
Util Inf-OF Francisco 0.4
Util Inf Cairo/Frazier 1
Util Inf Janish 0.8
RF Bruce 5.1
CF Jones 6.5
LF Heisey 0.5
OF and PH Nix 1.2
SP Cueto 5.4
SP Bumgarten 1
SP Leake 0.5
SP Bailey 1.4
SP Arroyo 12
Spot Starter Chapman 4.7
MR Lecure 0.5
MR Arredondo 0.9
MR Ondrusek 0.5
SU Johnson 1.5
SU Bray 1.6
CL Cordero 5

Total 2012 Budget -- Circa $75 million.

In other words, modest enough that we can splurge and:

* Lock in a long-term deal with Jones and/or Bumgarner
* Further upgrade our bench (say replace Janish with Renteria)
* Grab a moneyed ringer or two come next July if we're making any kind of decent run.

Given this squad, we could go into 2012 with some degree of confidence. We'd also have a nice foundation established for 2013 and beyond. Makes sense to me.

Of course, if the Giants or Orioles balk, then I'd go back to the other teams that folks have already identified here as decent trading partners, particularly the Marlins, Blue Jays and Rays.

cinreds21
09-23-2011, 08:57 PM
Matty D and LoMo are a possibility. However, for the final time, Hanley Ramirez will not be traded. Seriously. Not gonna happen.

mth123
09-23-2011, 09:19 PM
Votto for Bumgarner is the right deal at the right time for both teams.

Then, I get on the phone with the Baltimore Orioles to do what it takes to acquire Adam Jones to play CF. If the O's added reliever Jim Johnson, I'd give them Stubbs, Volquez, Grandal and Masset.

Re-sign Cordero at a reduced rate (say $5 million per), negotiate an acceptable contract extension with Phillips, and shore up the bench with a LH pinch-hitter and spare outfielder (a perfect role for free agent Laynce Nix redux!) and that would be an extremely productive off-season.

Our 2012 squad and their possible/likely salaries:

C Mesoraco 0.4
C Hanigan 1.5
1B Alonso 1.4
2B Phllips 12
SS Cozart 0.4
3B Rolen 8.2
Util Inf-OF Francisco 0.4
Util Inf Cairo/Frazier 1
Util Inf Janish 0.8
RF Bruce 5.1
CF Jones 6.5
LF Heisey 0.5
OF and PH Nix 1.2
SP Cueto 5.4
SP Bumgarten 1
SP Leake 0.5
SP Bailey 1.4
SP Arroyo 12
Spot Starter Chapman 4.7
MR Lecure 0.5
MR Arredondo 0.9
MR Ondrusek 0.5
SU Johnson 1.5
SU Bray 1.6
CL Cordero 5

Total 2012 Budget -- Circa $75 million.

In other words, modest enough that we can splurge and:

* Lock in a long-term deal with Jones and/or Bumgarner
* Further upgrade our bench (say replace Janish with Renteria)
* Grab a moneyed ringer or two come next July if we're making any kind of decent run.

Given this squad, we could go into 2012 with some degree of confidence. We'd also have a nice foundation established for 2013 and beyond. Makes sense to me.

Of course, if the Giants or Orioles balk, then I'd go back to the other teams that folks have already identified here as decent trading partners, particularly the Marlins, Blue Jays and Rays.

I like Jones, but if Votto goes, they need a higher caliber bat. I'd pass on him and the relievers and focus on a true middle of the order bopper who gets on base. Homer Bailey and Drew Stubbs for Alex Gordon? With Chapman moving into the rotation, Homer probably doesn't have a spot if the team acquires a big time arm like Bumgarner. After those spots are filled, then I'd worry about the pen. A lot of free agent relievers this year. I think they coud get better than Cordero for $5 Million.

Mario-Rijo
09-23-2011, 10:13 PM
If you really want to deal Votto to help the future, maybe the place to look is San Francisco. Votto for Madison Bumgarner?

I wonder if the emergence of Ryan Voglesong, the possible return of Jonathon Sanchez, the steps forward for Eric Surkamp and the still lurking Barry Zito would allow the Giants to pull the trigger to upgrade the offense in a huge, huge way. The Reds would need to probably move several others (Stubbs, Volquez maybe Grandal) for a bat and hope that Alonso is for real, but that is one of the few Votto deals I'd be up for. Addresses a real problem with the current team in a major way, resolves the budget crunch for the next couple of years and has future written all over it.

I seen a potential Votto to S.F. hypothetical deal that had some merit to it on an ESPN chat that the ESPN guy doing the chat thought seemed to make sense as well. Though I'm not a proponent for dealing Votto myself it's interesting.

S.F. gets Votto
Reds get Bumgarner, Jonathan Sanchez and Brandon Belt

lollipopcurve
09-24-2011, 08:43 AM
Homer Bailey and Drew Stubbs for Alex Gordon?

Bailey might be enough. Solid idea, if paired with a Votto deal to get a starter like Bumgarner.


If you really want to deal Votto to help the future, maybe the place to look is San Francisco. Votto for Madison Bumgarner?

I like this. Though the Giants do have Belt for 1B long term, potentially. Hard to see them giving up MadBum unless they feel they can lock up Votto. Would be a very nice get for the Reds, though.

HokieRed
09-24-2011, 11:22 AM
Prediction: team and RZ will regret any trade of Homer Bailey.

mth123
09-24-2011, 11:28 AM
Prediction: team and RZ will regret any trade of Homer Bailey.

Agree if he can stay healthy. The thing is, if they go get a starter and move Chapman into the rotation and move Cueto, Leake and Arroyo in behind him, what do they do with Homer? I'd leave Chapman in the pen and keep Homer, but if they deal Votto, I doubt that they would get the bat the need for say Stubbs/Volquez.

HokieRed
09-24-2011, 11:35 AM
Agree if he can stay healthy. The thing is, if they go get a starter and move Chapman into the rotation and move Cueto, Leake and Arroyo in behind him, what do they do with Homer? I'd leave Chapman in the pen and keep Homer, but if they deal Votto, I doubt that they would get the bat the need for say Stubbs/Volquez.

I think there's every reason to believe Homer will be better as a starter next year than anyone on this staff not named Cueto. Here are his WHIP's for the last three years: 1.47, 1.37, 1.25. Now is exactly the wrong time to trade him, IMO. I'd put Arroyo in the bullpen if Chapman proves himself able to start. I also doubt very seriously that they will trade Joey Votto.

lollipopcurve
09-24-2011, 11:54 AM
Here are his WHIP's for the last three years: 1.47, 1.37, 1.25.

Good point.

lollipopcurve
09-24-2011, 01:17 PM
From the Palm Beach Post:


The Marlins also are watching Cincinnati first baseman Joey Votto, last year's National League MVP.

He is not a free agent but there have been rumblings that the Reds might consider trading Votto, who is owed $9.5 million in 2012 and $17 million in '13.

How about for LoMo and Dominguez?

mth123
09-24-2011, 01:37 PM
From the Palm Beach Post:



How about for LoMo and Dominguez?

Need more. Add Sanchez or better yet Josh Johnson.

Votto for Sanchez, Morrison and Dominguez might be OK, but it probably means more for Florida's chances to win than the Reds.

chicoruiz
09-26-2011, 11:53 AM
Cleveland and Oakland might be interesting destinations for Alonso...

TRF
09-26-2011, 12:07 PM
ok, here is my idea: Sappelt, Burton and Wood to KC for Alex Gordon.If necessary add Horst or Thompson. Alonso, and Grandal to TB for Shields. If necessary add Stubbs to the mix.

LF - set with Gordon.
Rotation is better with James/Cueto at the top.

Benihana
09-26-2011, 12:19 PM
ok, here is my idea: Sappelt, Burton and Wood to KC for Alex Gordon.If necessary add Horst or Thompson. Alonso, and Grandal to TB for Shields. If necessary add Stubbs to the mix.

LF - set with Gordon.
Rotation is better with James/Cueto at the top.

I'd do both of those deals in a second. I don't think the other teams would, especially the KC deal- that's horrible for them.

Benihana
09-26-2011, 12:20 PM
From the Palm Beach Post:



How about for LoMo and Dominguez?

No WAY.

Hanley and LoMo sounds more like it.

I've always liked Dominguez since he was in High School, but I'm not sure how much he upgrades our 3B situation.

TRF
09-26-2011, 01:50 PM
I'd do both of those deals in a second. I don't think the other teams would, especially the KC deal- that's horrible for them.

They need pitching. Throw in Volquez.

cinreds21
09-26-2011, 01:53 PM
I highly doubt the Royals deal would work. Gordon has finally showed why he was the second overall pick. You would have to do Yonder or Grandal. They don't need the former at all, but they could easily use the latter. Still, I don't think they trade him now.

Benihana
09-26-2011, 02:05 PM
I highly doubt the Royals deal would work. Gordon has finally showed why he was the second overall pick. You would have to do Yonder or Grandal. They don't need the former at all, but they could easily use the latter. Still, I don't think they trade him now.

Exactly. I think it would take something like Grandal, Volquez and Wood for Gordon, and even then I'm not sure if they'd do it. I'm also not sure if we'd do that.

That's why I wanted to trade Grandal for him straight up six months ago. Gordon would be perfect on this team, and would enable the Reds to comfortably move Alonso for pitching.

TRF
09-26-2011, 03:17 PM
The Royals need pitching, and have a very good minor league system with position players, but pitching? not so much. Wood, Volquez, Burton and Sappelt for Gordon is balanced. You'd have to maybe kick in some money, but it gives KC two starters, one LH, a reliever with some history of success, and a LF/Leadoff type with excellent defense. Throw in Thompson, and KC could very well bite. And it isn't a bad deal for them or the Reds.

mdccclxix
09-26-2011, 03:32 PM
Need more. Add Sanchez or better yet Josh Johnson.

Votto for Sanchez, Morrison and Dominguez might be OK, but it probably means more for Florida's chances to win than the Reds.

Josh Johnson is of the caliper the Reds need. I'm not really messing with prospects in a Votto trade.

cinreds21
09-26-2011, 03:35 PM
The Royals have some really good pitching prospects.


And JJ isn't going anywhere either. Ricky Nolasco, could be had though.

mdccclxix
09-26-2011, 03:35 PM
Votto and Chapman for Johnson and Stanton.

BP
Cozart
Alonso
Stanton
Bruce

Cueto
Johnson
Leake
Bailey

You might want to include Stubbs for another player to offset some of the K's in the lineup.

cinreds21
09-26-2011, 03:40 PM
They aren't trading Stanton. You guys are in a huge dream world. Stanton is not going anywhere.

mdccclxix
09-26-2011, 03:46 PM
They aren't trading Stanton. You guys are in a huge dream world. Stanton is not going anywhere.

You mean the world where the Reds also trade Votto this year? :beerme:

cinreds21
09-26-2011, 03:49 PM
You mean the world where the Reds also trade Votto this year? :beerme:


Yes, that one.

mdccclxix
09-26-2011, 03:54 PM
Yes, that one.

Indeed, and in less than 3 days it's all we got until April. :(

cinreds21
09-26-2011, 03:55 PM
Maybe they should shut down outlandish ideas until then?

mdccclxix
09-26-2011, 04:00 PM
Maybe they should shut down outlandish ideas until then?

Far be it from me. I peddle in trade proposals very heavily during the winter and summer trading seasons. It's also a round about way of saying what you think is important in baseball - what you value players at.

cinreds21
09-26-2011, 04:52 PM
Far be it from me. I peddle in trade proposals very heavily during the winter and summer trading seasons. It's also a round about way of saying what you think is important in baseball - what you value players at.

Oh I'll make trade ideas all day. But when an asinine trade idea comes about, people get stuck on it for days or even weeks. All it does is just waste time.

lollipopcurve
09-26-2011, 04:59 PM
If the Reds are looking at dealing Votto, they should look carefully at the idea of acquiring Billy Butler from KC for pitching. KC is desperate for starters. And Butler is a very solid RH bat who could hit between Alonso and Bruce and actually strike out less than 100 times. He's a doubles machine who likely approaches 25 HRs in the NL Central. Under control for 3 more years at 8 million per, plus a 12.5 mill option for 2016.

Spitball
09-26-2011, 05:10 PM
If the Reds are looking at dealing Votto, they should look carefully at the idea of acquiring Billy Butler from KC for pitching. KC is desperate for starters. And Butler is a very solid RH bat who could hit between Alonso and Bruce and actually strike out less than 100 times. He's a doubles machine who likely approaches 25 HRs in the NL Central. Under control for 3 more years at 8 million per, plus a 12.5 mill option for 2016.

I like Butler, but if the Reds trade Votto, Alonso should be the new first baseman. The trading chips should be used for other needs...starting pitching, left field, shortstop, third base...

lollipopcurve
09-26-2011, 05:14 PM
I like Butler, but if the Reds trade Votto, Alonso should be the new first baseman.

Yes, that's the logical move. I do think a strong RH bat is key, though, and I have a hard time coming up with better candidates than Butler, who I'm fairly confident the Reds could get -- and afford for at least 3 years.

Spitball
09-26-2011, 07:19 PM
Yes, that's the logical move. I do think a strong RH bat is key, though, and I have a hard time coming up with better candidates than Butler, who I'm fairly confident the Reds could get -- and afford for at least 3 years.

But why would KC want to trade Butler? They are loaded with very good, almost major league ready pitching prospects. Danny Duffy, Michael Montgomery, John Lamb, Jeremy Jeffries, and others.

Butler does a good job of filling the DH role in the Royals' lineup. He is fairly cheap, is under control for a few more years, and is a fan favorite. I don't think they would trade him.

lollipopcurve
09-26-2011, 07:47 PM
Butler does a good job of filling the DH role in the Royals' lineup. He is fairly cheap, is under control for a few more years, and is a fan favorite. I don't think they would trade him.

I think they would -- and will -- trade him. He's not especially popular, from what I understand, and apparently he did not want to become a DH. They are desperate for pitching, and he's their most logical chip to get a decent starter.

Their minor league stable of arms took a hit this year -- Lamb was injured all year, and Montgomery did not pitch well. Jeffress is a reliever with control problems. They need starters -- badly.

Guacarock
09-26-2011, 08:51 PM
The Royals have some really good pitching prospects.


And JJ isn't going anywhere either. Ricky Nolasco, could be had though.

MLBTraderumors also reported today that the Marlins are open to trading Nolasco.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/09/marlins-open-to-trading-nolasco.html

Cost in trading stock cost could be low if receiving team agrees to take on Marlins' remaining salary obligations to Nolasco, including $9 million in 2012 and $11.5 million in 2013. We certainly have players the Marlins might want, but I'm not sure if we can assume that kind of salary.

Spitball
09-26-2011, 09:08 PM
I think they would -- and will -- trade him. He's not especially popular, from what I understand, and apparently he did not want to become a DH. They are desperate for pitching, and he's their most logical chip to get a decent starter.

Their most logical chips are their wealth of great prospects. A DH/first baseman who might not even reach 20 homeruns this year will not bring much pitching.

I don't know why he wouldn't be popular. Besides, as long as he is hitting and inexpensive, what difference would that make in Kansas City? I was at a game this summer and there were plenty of Butler jerseys in the crowd.

If they did not intend to keep Butler, I doubt they would have let go of Kila Ka'aihue.


Their minor league stable of arms took a hit this year -- Lamb was injured all year, and Montgomery did not pitch well. Jeffress is a reliever with control problems. They need starters -- badly.

Their minor league arms may have taken a hit but Lamb and Montgomery are still considered potential top of the rotation starting pitchers. Chris Dwyer, Jake Odorizzi and Will Smith are at double A and considered very good prospective starters.

Benihana
09-26-2011, 09:10 PM
The Royals need pitching, and have a very good minor league system with position players, but pitching? not so much. Wood, Volquez, Burton and Sappelt for Gordon is balanced. You'd have to maybe kick in some money, but it gives KC two starters, one LH, a reliever with some history of success, and a LF/Leadoff type with excellent defense. Throw in Thompson, and KC could very well bite. And it isn't a bad deal for them or the Reds.

Gordon:Royals = Bruce:Reds (prior to last offseason's extension.)

Teams don't trade a half-dollar like that for five dimes. You need to dangle a significant player and/or prospect to get a player of that caliber. Realistically, that means a guy like Grandal, Bailey or Leake.

Spitball
09-26-2011, 09:17 PM
MLBTraderumors also reported today that the Marlins are open to trading Nolasco.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/09/marlins-open-to-trading-nolasco.html

Cost in trading stock cost could be low if receiving team agrees to take on Marlins' remaining salary obligations to Nolasco, including $9 million in 2012 and $11.5 million in 2013. We certainly have players the Marlins might want, but I'm not sure if we can assume that kind of salary.

"Nolasco's velocity took a dip this year, as did his strikeout rate." Red flags...

Guacarock
09-26-2011, 10:05 PM
"Nolasco's velocity took a dip this year, as did his strikeout rate." Red flags...

Yep, right you are, both are red flags. The question then becomes: Are these interwined occurrences merely blips or forerunners of what's to come? In other words, did Nolasco suffer a down year or is he on a longer-term downward trajectory?

He's been a streaky pitcher of late, much like Bailey, tough-as-nails in some outings and eminently hittable other times. He does induce a lot of ground balls, but the flies tend to be hard-hit line drives -- the kinds that might be outs in large stadiums, or out-of-there in a bandbox like GABP.

Do I consider him a surefire TOR acquisition for us? Not at all. In our rotation, he wouldn't topple Cueto and might not outperform Leake. But the comparison with Bailey is apt because either of them could slot next in the rotation, with Nolasco more likely than Bailey to approach the 175-200 IP plateau.

If that's the kind of upgrade we're after, he can be had, and at a cheap acquisition cost. If we're seeking a bigger improvement, then we best look elsewhere, but be prepared to bear a higher price in terms of what players we can expect to surrender.

Spitball
09-26-2011, 10:13 PM
Yep, right you are, both are red flags. The question then becomes: Are these interwined occurrences merely blips or forerunners of what's to come? In other words, did Nolasco suffer a down year or is he on a longer-term downward trajectory?

He's been a streaky pitcher of late, much like Bailey, tough-as-nails in some outings and eminently hittable other times. He does induce a lot of ground balls, but the flies tend to be hard-hit line drives -- the kinds that might be outs in large stadiums, or out-of-there in a bandbox like GABP.

Do I consider him a surefire TOR acquisition for us? Not at all. In our rotation, he wouldn't topple Cueto and might not outperform Leake. But the comparison with Bailey is apt because either of them could slot next in the rotation, with Nolasco more likely than Bailey to approach the 175-200 IP plateau.

If that's the kind of upgrade we're after, he can be had, and at a cheap acquisition cost. If we're seeking a bigger improvement, then we best look elsewhere, but be prepared to bear a higher price in terms of what players we can expect to surrender.

If the Marlins would be willing to take on a good deal of his contract, the Reds should be willing to take the guy. But, I am betting the Marlins will be wanting a team willing to take on the $20 million over the next two years.

Guacarock
09-26-2011, 10:23 PM
If the Marlins would be willing to take on a good deal of his contract, the Reds should be willing to take the guy. But, I am betting the Marlins will be wanting a team willing to take on the $20 million over the next two years.

That's a safe bet you've made. The reason the Marlins would give him up for peanuts is to reallocate his $20.5 million. If the rumors are correct that they are going to make a play for a splashy free-agent like SP C.J. Wilson, or 1B Prince Fielder, or both of them to usher in their new stadium, they're going to need some salary relief elsewhere. My hunch: Nolasco is more likely to be traded to the team that will fully assume his contract rather than the team that coughs up the best prospects.

Spitball
09-26-2011, 10:33 PM
Then, the Reds should pass, imho.

lollipopcurve
09-27-2011, 07:06 AM
Look at Nolasco's numbers away from the cavernous Florida park. Put him in GAB and things could get real ugly.

TRF
09-27-2011, 09:41 AM
Gordon:Royals = Bruce:Reds (prior to last offseason's extension.)

Teams don't trade a half-dollar like that for five dimes. You need to dangle a significant player and/or prospect to get a player of that caliber. Realistically, that means a guy like Grandal, Bailey or Leake.

Maybe. But Gordon is 27, and JUST had the breakout they were expecting 4 years ago. Look at his stats. One of these things is not like the others... Could be a one year thing. He's by no means guaranteed to repeat this year's numbers. Plus they have some OF's at AAA and looks like 5 legit hitters at AA. But they are rotation starved and the AL Central is a winnable division for any team that gets hot.

Benihana
09-27-2011, 10:12 AM
Maybe. But Gordon is 27, and JUST had the breakout they were expecting 4 years ago. Look at his stats. One of these things is not like the others... Could be a one year thing. He's by no means guaranteed to repeat this year's numbers. Plus they have some OF's at AAA and looks like 5 legit hitters at AA. But they are rotation starved and the AL Central is a winnable division for any team that gets hot.

The reason why we would want him is the same reason why they would require a significant player coming back.

He has the pedigree and the tools. He finally put it together. Sure, like with anyone, his breakout could be a fluke, but there is a lot of evidence to suggest otherwise.

Having a bottleneck at one position with glaring holes at another does not neccessarily force teams into giving players up for less than they're worth - just look at the Reds' 1B and C situations.

TRF
09-27-2011, 10:33 AM
The reason why we would want him is the same reason why they would require a significant player coming back.

He has the pedigree and the tools. He finally put it together. Sure, like with anyone, his breakout could be a fluke, but there is a lot of evidence to suggest otherwise.

Having a bottleneck at one position with glaring holes at another does not neccessarily force teams into giving players up for less than they're worth - just look at the Reds' 1B and C situations.

How is giving the Royals Wood, Volquez and Thompson less than he's worth? Potentially a huge boost to their rotation for a player they can replace with one of almost 7 guys between AA and AAA.

cinreds21
09-27-2011, 11:06 AM
How is giving the Royals Wood, Volquez and Thompson less than he's worth? Potentially a huge boost to their rotation for a player they can replace with one of almost 7 guys between AA and AAA.

Because Gordon is one of the best, if not the best player on their team. In order to get him you have to give up something significant.

TRF
09-27-2011, 12:08 PM
Because Gordon is one of the best, if not the best player on their team. In order to get him you have to give up something significant.

He wasn't one of their best players the previous 4 years. He's 27. They have no rotation.

Volquez would be 2 years removed from TJ. Wood has a lot of upside. Thompson if healthy (and yeah, I know... he's never healthy) has shown flashes. Burton makes their pen better and Sappelt can lead off for them. He won't have the power, but his speed in the AL Central will be a boon. Big parks there.

Benihana
09-27-2011, 02:03 PM
Sorry TRF I think you're off the mark here.

Reds wouldn't trade Jay Bruce last offseason for two questionable arms with some upside, would they?

Hell, most people wouldn't trade Yonder Alonso RIGHT NOW for two questionable arms with some upside, and Gordon has shown a lot more than Yonder at this point.

Thompson, Burton, and Sappelt all have negligible trade value at this point. Sappelt might be OK as a throw-in, nothing more. He's a guy with very little projection who has OPS'd .600 in the bigs (admittedly with a very small sample size). His size and (lack of) pedigree doesn't help build confidence in future performance, though.

Patrick Bateman
09-27-2011, 02:06 PM
If Gordon was going to be traded for 2 quesationable arms, he would have already.

I'm guessing they have turned down comparable offers based on his potential in the past few years and presumably rebuffed. They didn't hold onto him with the thought of underselling him.

TRF
09-27-2011, 02:26 PM
Sorry TRF I think you're off the mark here.

Reds wouldn't trade Jay Bruce last offseason for two questionable arms with some upside, would they?

Hell, most people wouldn't trade Yonder Alonso RIGHT NOW for two questionable arms with some upside, and Gordon has shown a lot more than Yonder at this point.

Thompson, Burton, and Sappelt all have negligible trade value at this point. Sappelt might be OK as a throw-in, nothing more. He's a guy with very little projection who has OPS'd .600 in the bigs (admittedly with a very small sample size). His size and (lack of) pedigree doesn't help build confidence in future performance, though.

Last year Jay Bruce was 23.

Next year Alex Gordon will be 28.

not the same.

Benihana
09-27-2011, 03:35 PM
Last year Jay Bruce was 23.

Next year Alex Gordon will be 28.

not the same.

And Jay's name starts with a J whereas Alex's starts with an A. Not the same.

Anyway the point remains the same. Gordon is one of their crown jewels and arguably the best major league hitter on their roster. They are not trading him for your proposal.

dougdirt
09-27-2011, 04:00 PM
And Jay's name starts with a J whereas Alex's starts with an A. Not the same.

Anyway the point remains the same. Gordon is one of their crown jewels and arguably the best major league hitter on their roster. They are not trading him for your proposal.

To add to it, they waited on him for years and it finally paid off. Why would they then trade him away?

TRF
09-27-2011, 04:24 PM
To add to it, they waited on him for years and it finally paid off. Why would they then trade him away?

Because it paid off for one year at age 27. And they have 7 guys at AA/AAA with .800+ OPS seasons this year. So maybe getting 3 SP's age 27 and under, a relief pitcher with success in the major leagues and a speedy LF that profiles as an excellent candidate to lead off and can play all three OF positions might be enticing?

Patrick Bateman
09-27-2011, 04:48 PM
Because it paid off for one year at age 27. And they have 7 guys at AA/AAA with .800+ OPS seasons this year. So maybe getting 3 SP's age 27 and under, a relief pitcher with success in the major leagues and a speedy LF that profiles as an excellent candidate to lead off and can play all three OF positions might be enticing?

The point is, they could likely get a more established pitcher rather than trading for a haul that is deemed expendable by one of the worst pitching teams in a league.

TRF
09-27-2011, 05:31 PM
The point is, they could likely get a more established pitcher rather than trading for a haul that is deemed expendable by one of the worst pitching teams in a league.

Maybe. What did they get for Greinke? Lorenzo Cain and chaff. Escobar? all glove no bat ala Janish. Odorizzi? He's a loooong way off. Jeffess? throw in.

So why is a guy that finally develops at age 27 more valuable than than Zach Greinke? Yes, for LF, his bat was elite in the AL. Was his value last year greater than Greinke's the year before? Maybe. the three years prior though? where a track record had been established?

not. even. close.

Spitball
09-27-2011, 11:06 PM
Maybe. What did they get for Greinke? Lorenzo Cain and chaff. Escobar? all glove no bat ala Janish. Odorizzi? He's a loooong way off. Jeffess? throw in.

So why is a guy that finally develops at age 27 more valuable than than Zach Greinke? Yes, for LF, his bat was elite in the AL. Was his value last year greater than Greinke's the year before? Maybe. the three years prior though? where a track record had been established?

not. even. close.

Some here are very much undervalueing the Royal pitching situation. They are not hurting for potential. Montgomery and Lamb may be a year away, but they are better than anything in the Cincinnati system. They are both top of the rotation type talents. The Royals are an impatient though (see Meche, Francis, et al). They may trade their potential prospects, but they have very good pitching prospects in there system.

Patrick Bateman
09-28-2011, 10:21 AM
Maybe. What did they get for Greinke? Lorenzo Cain and chaff. Escobar? all glove no bat ala Janish. Odorizzi? He's a loooong way off. Jeffess? throw in.

So why is a guy that finally develops at age 27 more valuable than than Zach Greinke? Yes, for LF, his bat was elite in the AL. Was his value last year greater than Greinke's the year before? Maybe. the three years prior though? where a track record had been established?

not. even. close.

That's not even close to a fair summation of the package they received from the Brewers. That package was the equivalency of 2 top 100 prospects and 1 borderline guy, plus Cain. Escobar's stats obviously suck, but his fielding has consistently graded out high enough to be a more reasonable starter than Janish.

The package you are suggesting is offering about 3 players with less traded value than each of the components of that trade.

TRF
09-28-2011, 10:38 AM
That's not even close to a fair summation of the package they received from the Brewers. That package was the equivalency of 2 top 100 prospects and 1 borderline guy, plus Cain. Escobar's stats obviously suck, but his fielding has consistently graded out high enough to be a more reasonable starter than Janish.

The package you are suggesting is offering about 3 players with less traded value than each of the components of that trade.

I disagree. Volquez is a former 17 game winner, controllable, cheap, two years removed from TJ surgery and though his control was a huge problem, still posted a K/9 north of 9. He was outstanding at AAA this year. Wood had a down year true, but was fantastic last year, is a LH starter and only 24. He's had a taste of the post season, and stood up very well. His major league career spanning two seasons has him with a 7.0 K/9. he doesn't give up a lot of HR's. Thompson has good stuff, but cannot stay healthy. Burton has had major league success. Sappelt has hit for two straight seasons with a retooled swing. Three SP's, one reliever and one OF for a guy that has had ONE good major league season, at age 27.

Janish fielding ability is easily on a par with Escobar. Sorry, but this would be a haul for KC.

Patrick Bateman
09-28-2011, 10:45 AM
I disagree. Volquez is a former 17 game winner, controllable, cheap, two years removed from TJ surgery and though his control was a huge problem, still posted a K/9 north of 9. He was outstanding at AAA this year. Wood had a down year true, but was fantastic last year, is a LH starter and only 24. He's had a taste of the post season, and stood up very well. His major league career spanning two seasons has him with a 7.0 K/9. he doesn't give up a lot of HR's. Thompson has good stuff, but cannot stay healthy. Burton has had major league success. Sappelt has hit for two straight seasons with a retooled swing. Three SP's, one reliever and one OF for a guy that has had ONE good major league season, at age 27.

Janish fielding ability is easily on a par with Escobar. Sorry, but this would be a haul for KC.

If all of these guys are so good, why can't they make the Reds team (Sappelt not included)?

TRF
09-28-2011, 10:56 AM
If all of these guys are so good, why can't they make the Reds team (Sappelt not included)?

Guys get traded for need all the time.

Patrick Bateman
09-28-2011, 11:07 AM
Guys get traded for need all the time.

But we are the team that needs pitching the most.
These guys were deemed not good enougn for the Reds staff this year.

TRF
09-28-2011, 12:04 PM
The reds have black holes on offense at four positions. LF is a potential need. follow this trade with one for James Shields.

IMO this is a good fit. it's not a good fit in yours. I think I've made my case, so I am moving on now.

Will M
09-28-2011, 02:23 PM
http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/7030281/new-york-mets-facing-plenty-offseason-issues-starting-reyes

this isn't the first time i have read that the Mets might trade or non tender Pagan. I'd be happy with Pagan vs lefties & either Stubbs or Heisey vs righties. it would allow us to trade one or even two of our centerfielders as part of a package for help elsewhere. plus i think Pagan hits righties much better than any of our guys.

Spitball
09-28-2011, 04:57 PM
Some here are very much undervalueing the Royal pitching situation. They are not hurting for potential. Montgomery and Lamb may be a year away, but they are better than anything in the Cincinnati system. They are both top of the rotation type talents. The Royals are an impatient though (see Meche, Francis, et al). They may trade their potential prospects, but they have very good pitching prospects in there system.

Whew! Excuse the typos. I need to be careful about posting after cheap beer night at US Pizza. :)

mdccclxix
10-10-2011, 03:43 PM
Things may really get interesting in Miami next year:

"Basically what Jeffrey has instructed all of us is that no stone will be left unturned in order to make this year a memory and make next year unforgettable," Samson said.


Subtracting Oviedo and Vazquez and otherwise keeping the Marlins the same will already result in over $65MM in commitments, a franchise payroll record. Recently, a person close to the Marlins' front office told Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post the 2012 payroll could approach $100MM, as owner Jeffrey Loria aims to make 2012 unforgettable. If Loria follows through, the result would be an additional $35MM in payroll flexibility, which could be further expanded if the team trades Nolasco. However, with Vazquez and his 192 2/3 innings of 3.69 ERA ball potentially headed for retirement and ace Josh Johnson limited to 60 1/3 innings in 2011 due to a shoulder injury, a Nolasco trade could add uncertainty to a situation already bursting with it.

If they're looking for sizzle next year, roll Chapman out there in exchange for one of their young talented bats.

Nevertheless, if the Marlins are looking to add that much payroll they instantly become more intriguing as a trade partner.