View Full Version : Nick Masset: What's Next?
mdccclxix
09-26-2011, 01:02 PM
Nick had a terrible year, in my opinion. It seemed like each time he needed to hold a runner, prevent a big run, whatever Dusty called him to do in favor of Bray or the starter, he failed. The leverage stats indicate he wasn't good in high leverage:
Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO SO/BB BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
High Lvrge 36 104 89 21 33 6 0 3 0 0 13 14 1.08 .371 .451 .539 .990 48 2 0 2 0 5 0 .417 166 177
Medium Lvrge 33 58 49 4 13 2 0 0 0 0 8 13 1.63 .265 .362 .306 .668 15 1 0 0 1 1 0 .351 81 87
Low Lvrge 43 145 134 12 30 7 0 2 0 0 10 32 3.20 .224 .283 .321 .604 43 1 1 0 0 0 1 .280 62 71
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com (http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/sharing.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool): View Original Table (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=masseni01&year=2011&t=p&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#lever)
Generated 9/26/2011.
This year he took a major step backwards statistically. His K/9 dropped from 10 to 7.8, his walks are a bit higher than last year, and are high in general, at 4.1. His WHIP is 1.56. I know relievers can have fluctuating years, but he about wore me out this year and I won't mind if he's replaced next year somehow if it means we can get a guy with more deceptive stuff and a high K rate. He is definitely upgradable.
Year ERA G IP HR BB SO ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2009 2.37 74 76.0 6 24 70 178 1.026 6.4 0.7 2.8 8.3 2.92
2010 3.40 82 76.2 7 33 85 120 1.265 7.5 0.8 3.9 10.0 2.58
2011 3.82 73 68.1 5 31 59 102 1.566 10.0 0.7 4.1 7.8 1.90
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com (http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/sharing.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool): View Original Table (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/masseni01.shtml?sr&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#pitching_simple)
Generated 9/26/2011.
Who knows, next year could be a bounce back year for him. But I'd rather see the Reds find an 8th inning guy with a better track record.
dougdirt
09-26-2011, 01:11 PM
I certainly am not going to let him walk away. I do know that much. He still has a good arm. 2011 was a bit of a let down. But aside from that, I don't know what role I would put him in.
Everyone is replacable. Especially someone who has been extremely ineffective.
Either he's tipping his pitches, his hit rate is going up while his BB rate has stabilized, or or he's losing some movement on his pitches for some reason.
If it's the former, that can be fixed.
If it's the latter.. i really don't know.
cinreds21
09-26-2011, 01:59 PM
If Chapman does go into the rotation and the Reds don't sign a set-in-stone closer, I'd expect Masset to get the first nod at the ninth inning. However, I don't think he'll fulfill that role the entire year.
757690
09-26-2011, 02:33 PM
He's not worth going to arbitration with. I'm sure the Reds can find someone to be just as ineffective for the league minimum.
If Chapman does go into the rotation and the Reds don't sign a set-in-stone closer, I'd expect Masset to get the first nod at the ninth inning. However, I don't think he'll fulfill that role the entire year.
The way Masset has pitched this year, it is hard to believe the Reds would let him close games next year.
IMO the Reds need to re-stock the bullpen. Ondrusek, Bray, and Masset have been poor in the second half.
Some folks attribute this to overuse early in the season. I don't necessarily agree. Sometimes relievers burn themselves out pretty quickly.
Even if the Reds keep all these guys, they need some new relievers for late in games.
Right now, Arredondo and Lecure are the most effective guys in this pen. I don't know why we should expect the others to be good again in April, frankly.
cinreds21
09-26-2011, 02:35 PM
The way Masset has pitched this year, it is hard to believe the Reds would let him close games next year.
IMO the Reds need to re-stock the bullpen. Ondrusek, Bray, and Masset have been poor in the second half.
Some folks attribute this to overuse early in the season. I don't necessarily agree. Sometimes relievers burn themselves out pretty quickly.
Even if the Reds keep all these guys, they need some new relievers for late in games.
Right now, Arredondo and Lecure are the most effective guys in this pen. I don't know why we should expect the others to be good again in April, frankly.
Not that I want Masset there, it's just if they don't get anyone there isn't really any other choice. I do like Arredondo as the closer but I thought I'd get too much crap if I mentioned him for the closer role.
Not that I want Masset there, it's just if they don't get anyone there isn't really any other choice. I do like Arredondo as the closer but I thought I'd get too much crap if I mentioned him for the closer role.
I doubt they would have Arredondo close, just for lack of experience in that spot.
However, I would have no problem with Arredondo being part of a late inning group of set up men. He's improved (injury is now in the rear view mirror) and he's effective. Next year he should be even better.
I hope Walt pays attention to the bullpen this off-season. It needs work.
cinreds21
09-26-2011, 02:54 PM
I doubt they would have Arredondo close, just for lack of experience in that spot.
However, I would have no problem with Arredondo being part of a late inning group of set up men. He's improved (injury is now in the rear view mirror) and he's effective. Next year he should be even better.
I hope Walt pays attention to the bullpen this off-season. It needs work.
He was suppose to be the Angels' closer of the future. Or could be at least.
RollyInRaleigh
09-26-2011, 03:04 PM
I certainly am not going to let him walk away. I do know that much. He still has a good arm. 2011 was a bit of a let down. But aside from that, I don't know what role I would put him in.
:beerme:
bucksfan2
09-26-2011, 03:07 PM
I just don't know what to think of Arredondo. If it was the TJ issue that really hurt his control this season then I would be ok with him assuming a late inning spot. But there were times when Arredondo couldn't find hope plate to save his life. If you believe his control will improve then by all means put him in a high leverage situation.
Masset I am totally confused by. Last year he was absolutely a beast after April. He probably has the best stuff (sans Chapman) in the pen and maybe on the entire staff. If I were a betting man I would bet Masset has a better year than Arredondo but I wouldn't bet my house on it.
757690
09-26-2011, 03:07 PM
I certainly am not going to let him walk away. I do know that much. He still has a good arm. 2011 was a bit of a let down. But aside from that, I don't know what role I would put him in.
Unfortunately that good arm comes in a package deal with his head.
Redsfan320
09-26-2011, 03:34 PM
I bring him back. Like Doug, I'm not sure in what role, and I wouldn't pay too much for him, but he does have a pretty lively arm.
320
Masset's career peripherals are eerily similar to his 2011. The one exception is his BABIP which is around .025 higher this year (.336) than over his career (.311.) I'd guess that it's likely his "real" BABIP is right around .300 (like it is for more pitchers) so if he returns to that level of BABIP next year, it will seem like he's a better pitcher.
The best thing he could do peripheral-wise is cut down on the walks.
Superdude
09-26-2011, 04:02 PM
Masset's career peripherals are eerily similar to his 2011. The one exception is his BABIP which is around .025 higher this year (.336) than over his career (.311.) I'd guess that it's likely his "real" BABIP is right around .300 (like it is for more pitchers) so if he returns to that level of BABIP next year, it will seem like he's a better pitcher.
The best thing he could do peripheral-wise is cut down on the walks.
His career totals are factoring in over 100 pretty sloppy innings earlier in his career. Masset's clearly taken a step back from what we've come to expect, BABIP or not.
fearofpopvol1
09-26-2011, 04:22 PM
I'd keep him, but I'd put him in the type of role that Arredondo was in this year. Not high leverage sitautions.
_Sir_Charles_
09-26-2011, 04:23 PM
Nick has some filthy stuff when he's on. Simply put, he's had a bad year. I certainly don't give up on the guy. With the year he's had, his arbitration numbers should be pretty small I'd think. If it turns out he struggles next year, pull the plug on him for a while. But of all the relievers this year, he's had the most consistent struggles all year.
In the second half, Logan & Billy have struggled too. But I'm completely chalking that up to heavy usage in the first 2 months of the year. The starters were imploding regularly. Leake was bad enough to be pushed to the pen, Wood & Volquez were bad enough to be sent to AAA, Bronson was bad all year, Cueto & Bailey were hurt and being replaced. That's a ton of innings for the pen to have to cover for. IMO, the results of the pen in the second half can be laid squarely at the feet of the starters in the first half.
The only reliever I see that needs to be replaced next year is Chapman, but that's only because I want to see him stretched out for the rotation (either in AAA or with the Reds).
LeCure proved himself to be very reliable as a long man, so he stays in that role.
Bray was very solid most all year long as the lefty specialist. I think he should be used in a wider variety of situations though. Longer stints, fewer games.
Arredondo was pretty steady all year but also pretty sub-par. But being another year away from TJ is a good thing. I leave him in a set-up role.
Ondrusek was pretty much automatic in the first half this year, but was pretty much abused by the starters' ineffectiveness. A normal workload with some regular rest and I think he'll rebound nicely. I count on him as a very solid set-up guy.
Cordero I bring back. Period. He wants to be here, and we need a closer. I know alot of people here thought Masset was the next closer, but with the year he just had...I bring back Coco for a short term contract. He may not be pretty, but he gets the job done more often than not. His K rate has gone down steadily, but he's also being more effective. I'll take that declining K rate.
As for the rest of the pen...mix and match. As usual, just go with the hot hand at the time. Smith, Burton, Horst, Fisher, Boxberger, etc, etc. If Masset struggles again, pull someone from L'ville. But for now, keep him.
His career totals are factoring in over 100 pretty sloppy innings earlier in his career. Masset's clearly taken a step back from what we've come to expect, BABIP or not.
I don't know what "we" expected but "I'm" unsurprised by his season.
I don't think he's taken a step back nor is it "clear" that he's done so. I think this is the pitcher he his: highish K, high BB, low HR pitcher. It's still a useful piece of the bullpen given correct usage.
Give him Cordero's BABIP this season and he'd look a lot like Mitchell Boggs or Wilton Lopez. Cut down on the walks a bit AND give him that BABIP and you'd basically have Heath Bell.
RedsManRick
09-26-2011, 05:24 PM
Wow. I can't believe how many people want to let him walk.
Yes, he had a rough year, particularly in high leverage situations, but he still put decent numbers. I don't know if he's tipping or just unlucky, but no way to I cut one of the pitchers we've got who can legitimately miss bats. That's just stupid. In fact, I'd happily bet that Masset will outpitch Cordero next year.
kaldaniels
09-26-2011, 05:29 PM
He's not gonna get much as an early stage arb. player. Bring him back on a cheap 1 yr deal.
mdccclxix
09-26-2011, 05:31 PM
I'm for bringing him back in a reduced role and hopefully he can fight his way back into the 8th inning. But I'm looking for help in the meantime.
757690
09-26-2011, 05:36 PM
Wow. I can't believe how many people want to let him walk.
Yes, he had a rough year, particularly in high leverage situations, but he still put decent numbers. I don't know if he's tipping or just unlucky, but no way to I cut one of the pitchers we've got who can legitimately miss bats. That's just stupid. In fact, I'd happily bet that Masset will outpitch Cordero next year.
If he accepts the same salary he got this year, fine. But his production should be easy to replace for close to league minimum. No way I go to arbitration with him.
And saying he'd be better than Cordero is like saying he'd be funnier than Dane Cook.
In fact, I'd happily bet that Masset will outpitch Cordero next year.
He said at the beginning of the 2011 season.
Masset lost 4 out of the first 5 games of the season. That's a hard thing to forget.
I'm for bringing him back in a reduced role and hopefully he can fight his way back into the 8th inning. But I'm looking for help in the meantime.
That sounds about right. But if we let CoCo walk and make Chapman a starter, we're in need of an eighth inning guy and a closer. BP needs a serious re-boot.
757690
09-26-2011, 05:42 PM
I don't know what "we" expected but "I'm" unsurprised by his season.
I don't think he's taken a step back nor is it "clear" that he's done so. I think this is the pitcher he his: highish K, high BB, low HR pitcher. It's still a useful piece of the bullpen given correct usage.
Give him Cordero's BABIP this season and he'd look a lot like Mitchell Boggs or Wilton Lopez. Cut down on the walks a bit AND give him that BABIP and you'd basically have Heath Bell.
No offense, but I could give a flying fig what his BABIP is.
All I know is that whenever he comes into the game, I never feel likevthe other team won't score. In fact, I feel like there's a fifty-fifty chance that they will. I don't mind that in a middle reliever getting league minimum, but don't want that in a late inning reliever getting arbitration money.
Superdude
09-26-2011, 05:49 PM
I don't know what "we" expected but "I'm" unsurprised by his season.
I don't think he's taken a step back nor is it "clear" that he's done so. I think this is the pitcher he his: highish K, high BB, low HR pitcher. It's still a useful piece of the bullpen given correct usage.
His xFIP ballooned from 3.27 to 3.84, and the fact that most of that decline stemmed from his K rate is somewhat concerning. I had him pegged as a solid heir apparent to Cordero, but after Masset's struggles, I'm not feeling overly optimistic about the back end of the bullpen. Come on Boxberger!
Give him Cordero's BABIP this season and he'd look a lot like Mitchell Boggs or Wilton Lopez. Cut down on the walks a bit AND give him that BABIP and you'd basically have Heath Bell.
I think I could have put up a pretty nice season with Cordero's BABIP.
No offense, but I could give a flying fig what his BABIP is.
It contributes more to the explanation of his season than ERA, WHIP and seasonal splits thereof.
All I know is that whenever he comes into the game, I never feel likevthe other team won't score. In fact, I feel like there's a fifty-fifty chance that they will. I don't mind that in a middle reliever getting league minimum, but don't want that in a late inning reliever getting arbitration money.
Great!
I'm not talking about "emotional response," I'm talking about individual production.
His xFIP ballooned from 3.27 to 3.84, and the fact that most of that decline stemmed from his K rate is somewhat concerning.
I don't think it's a decline as much as a regression to the mean. That is to say, I don't think he got worse, I simply think the numbers "caught up" with him.
I had him pegged as a solid heir apparent to Cordero, but after Masset's struggles, I'm not feeling overly optimistic about the back end of the bullpen. Come on Boxberger!
Well, I'll leave your expectations up to you. I still think he's a useful piece.
I think I could have put up a pretty nice season with Cordero's BABIP.
Nick Masset with normal BABIP = Blake Wood of the Royals.
Nick Masset with an otherwordly BABIP = Neftali Feliz.
757690
09-26-2011, 06:55 PM
Great!
I'm not talking about "emotional response," I'm talking about individual production.
My emotional response is based on Masset's production.
This season, he has given up a run in 1 out of every 4 games he has pitched in. It wasn't much better the year before: 1 in 5 games.
That's terrible for a late inning guy. It's marginally passable for a middle reliever. Late inning relievers should be close to automatic if you want your team to contend.
My emotional response is based on Masset's production.
This season, he has given up a run in 1 out of every 4 games he has pitched in. It wasn't much better the year before: 1 in 5 games.
That's terrible for a late inning guy. It's marginally passable for a middle reliever. Late inning relievers should be close to automatic if you want your team to contend.
I'm not talking about expectations either.
mth123
09-26-2011, 07:50 PM
I voted let him walk because I don't want to pay him $3 Million +, but the correct answer is not on the list which is to include him in a deal. I'd clear as much iffy payroll from the books as posible until we fix the rotation and we know that the middle of the order will be manned by three capable bats (Votto, Alonso and Bruce and if one of them goes in a deal for a starter, somebody from outside the organization). Once we know how much the team will cost with those roles filled, then we can address the pen with whatever payroll room remains.
kaldaniels
09-26-2011, 09:29 PM
My emotional response is based on Masset's production.
This season, he has given up a run in 1 out of every 4 games he has pitched in. It wasn't much better the year before: 1 in 5 games.
That's terrible for a late inning guy. It's marginally passable for a middle reliever. Late inning relievers should be close to automatic if you want your team to contend.
May I ask what the league average is for relievers with say, 50 or more appearances and 50 or more IP?
Edit - Just one example, legend Mariano Rivera gives up a run in 1 out of 6 games over the past 2 years. And no one is putting Massett anywhere near Rivera in terms of production.
757690
09-26-2011, 09:54 PM
May I ask what the league average is for relievers with say, 50 or more appearances and 50 or more IP?
Edit - Just one example, legend Mariano Rivera gives up a run in 1 out of 6 games over the past 2 years. And no one is putting Massett anywhere near Rivera in terms of production.
That works out to nearly twice as many appearances in which you give up a run. Rivera averages around 10 a year, Masset had 18 this year. That's eight more wins a year that in jeopardy if Masset is a late inning reliever. That's significant for a contending team.
RedsManRick
09-26-2011, 10:38 PM
That works out to nearly twice as many appearances in which you give up a run. Rivera averages around 10 a year, Masset had 18 this year. That's eight more wins a year that in jeopardy if Masset is a late inning reliever. That's significant for a contending team.
Yup. He's not nearly as good as the best closer in major league history.
This year, Cordero allowed an earned run in 14/66 appearances (21%). Masset was a 17/73 (23%). And yet people think they're getting a steal if they only have to pay Cordero $4MM or $5MM. Based on FIP and xFIP, he and Cordero were basically twins. However you slice it, Masset is a decent reliever who gave up a bit more hits than he has in the past. He's worth a few million bucks and would easily get something like 3/10 in FA -- likely more.
757690
09-26-2011, 11:02 PM
Yup. He's not nearly as good as the best closer in major league history.
This year, Cordero allowed an earned run in 14/66 appearances (21%). Masset was a 17/73 (23%). And yet people think they're getting a steal if they only have to pay Cordero $4MM or $5MM. Based on FIP and xFIP, he and Cordero were basically twins. However you slice it, Masset is a decent reliever who gave up a bit more hits than he has in the past. He's worth a few million bucks and would easily get something like 3/10 in FA -- likely more.
I completely agree. Both were decent middle relievers this year.
I just think the Reds should be able to find someone just as good for close to league minimum. I hate paying for parking and I hate paying for middle relievers. With a little planning and effort, you shouldn't have to pay for either.
kaldaniels
09-27-2011, 12:24 AM
That works out to nearly twice as many appearances in which you give up a run. Rivera averages around 10 a year, Masset had 18 this year. That's eight more wins a year that in jeopardy if Masset is a late inning reliever. That's significant for a contending team.
Funny thing is, you being the one that introduced this stat into the thread, you haven't told us what the league average for that stat is. Do you even know....I sure don't.
757690
09-27-2011, 01:25 AM
Funny thing is, you being the one that introduced this stat into the thread, you haven't told us what the league average for that stat is. Do you even know....I sure don't.
On average, closers and set up men allow runs around 10-13 times a year, middle relievers around 15-20 times a season. That's the ones that pitch a full season.
*BaseClogger*
09-27-2011, 02:28 AM
Is Masset really going to get $3M+ in arb?
Ron Madden
09-27-2011, 03:16 AM
It's as true today as it was yesterday. The statistics of Relief Pitchers are very volatile from one week, one month or one season to the next. If they have "Good Stuff" they most likely will have productive careers.
IMHO Nick Masset has "Good Stuff". I hope the Reds hold on to him.
lollipopcurve
09-27-2011, 10:11 AM
I give him the 8th, provided Cordero is back. If he's shaky, you move him to earlier in the game. The guy is just way too nasty (and still affordable) to give up on.
Top 11 RP's in the NL sorted by BB's
RK PLAYER TEAM GP GS IP H R ER BB SO W L SV HLD BLSV WHIP ERA
1 Jeff Samardzija CHC 74 0 87.2 63 35 29 49 86 8 4 0 12 2 1.28 2.98
2 Carlos Marmol CHC 74 0 73.0 54 33 33 46 97 2 6 34 2 10 1.37 4.07
3 Henry Rodriguez WSH 59 0 65.2 54 30 26 45 70 3 3 2 10 3 1.51 3.56
4 Jonny Venters ATL 84 0 87.0 53 19 18 41 95 6 2 5 34 4 1.08 1.86
5 Aroldis Chapman CIN 53 0 49.0 23 21 20 40 70 4 1 1 13 2 1.29 3.67
6 Jose Veras PIT 79 0 71.0 54 32 30 34 79 2 4 1 27 7 1.24 3.80
7 Brian Sanches FLA 37 0 56.1 42 27 22 33 46 4 1 0 0 0 1.33 3.51
Daniel McCutchen PIT 72 0 83.2 86 38 35 33 46 5 3 0 10 0 1.42 3.76
Ernesto Frieri SD 57 0 61.0 49 21 19 33 73 1 2 0 3 0 1.34 2.80
10 Brian Wilson SF 57 0 55.0 50 20 19 31 54 6 4 36 0 5 1.47 3.11
RK PLAYER TEAM GP GS IP H R ER BB SO W L SV HLD BLSV WHIP ERA
Nick Masset CIN 74 0 69.1 76 30 29 31 61 3 6 1 14 6 1.54 3.76
With one exception, the top ten all have fewer hits than IP. Masset gave up a lot of hits this year, but while the K/9 dipped, it was still above his career average, and nearly 8 K/9. So it may have been just an off year.
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