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View Full Version : Jocketty says Reds tried to acquire Pence



Dan
10-01-2011, 07:37 PM
MLBTR (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/10/central-notes-fister-pence-cubs.html?utm_medium=facebook&utm_source=twitterfeed)


The Reds tried to acquire Hunter Pence from the Astros, according to Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News, and GM Walt Jocketty has said he thought he made a better offer to Houston than the one it eventually accepted from the Phillies. McCoy reports that the Astros wanted Devin Mesoraco and adds that lefty Aroldis Chapman was not available.

Tornon
10-01-2011, 07:41 PM
Didn't we hear the same thing from Walt last year in regards to Cliff Lee? That our package was supposedly better than the Rangers'

The Operator
10-01-2011, 07:50 PM
Heh, if you say so Walt. Uh huh, The Reds have been in on every big trade the last few years. And offering a better package! Opposing GMs must just really hate The Reds.

That, or Walt doesn't want to admit he's been asleep at the wheel.

dougdirt
10-01-2011, 07:54 PM
Heh, if you say so Walt. Uh huh, The Reds have been in on every big trade the last few years. And offering a better package! Opposing GMs must just really hate The Reds.

That, or Walt doesn't want to admit he's been asleep at the wheel.

Maybe to him, his offer was better than what the Phillies offered. Not everyone sees all of these players in the same light. Mesoraco is certainly a better prospect than anyone that was traded for Pence, but maybe the other parts weren't as good as the ones offered and that is what swayed the trade.

RFS62
10-01-2011, 07:58 PM
Or maybe he's telling the truth.

It wouldn't surprise me a bit if Lee and Pence would prefer to play for the best team in the National League.

mth123
10-01-2011, 08:00 PM
Or maybe he's telling the truth.

It wouldn't surprise me a bit if Lee and Pence would prefer to play for the best team in the National League.

What does that have to do with trading for them? They weren't free agents.

Guacarock
10-01-2011, 08:07 PM
Teams often won't trade their best players to a division rival. It's like surrendering a walk -- it can come back to haunt you.

edabbs44
10-01-2011, 08:08 PM
Or maybe he's telling the truth.

It wouldn't surprise me a bit if Lee and Pence would prefer to play for the best team in the National League.

Or that Houston doesn't want t0 see Pence 18 or so times next year.

BuckeyeRedleg
10-01-2011, 08:25 PM
I once asked out Morgan Fairchild.

Yeah, that's it. That's the ticket.

traderumor
10-01-2011, 09:17 PM
WJ doesn't strike me as playing Jim Bowden games. He seems to be a straight shooter and professional, so I find it far fetched to consider that he just made this up.

PuffyPig
10-02-2011, 12:43 AM
Pence is a very expensive overrated player.

Sure he helps the Phillies who don't have to worry about the overrated part with a huge payroll.

But Pence would have been very poor value in lost trade chips and used up payroll space.

Matt700wlw
10-02-2011, 12:47 AM
I once asked out Morgan Fairchild.

Yeah, that's it. That's the ticket.

I asked out a future playmate in High School...

She didn't go out with me, but I gave it a go. She had a better deal lined up with one of the cool kids :)

nemesis
10-02-2011, 01:00 AM
I asked out a future playmate in High School...

She didn't go out with me, but I gave it a go. She had a better deal lined up with one of the cool kids :)

My girlfriend is a Playmate....

Ok a pornstar. But should still count.

I.wanted nothing to do with Pence. Especially with Mez as the centerpiece. I would wager Mez has a higher WAR over the next 5 years.

cinreds21
10-02-2011, 01:56 AM
There was an Astros scout watching Yas, Soto and others before the deadline.

Griffey012
10-02-2011, 03:07 AM
Pence is a very expensive overrated player.

Sure he helps the Phillies who don't have to worry about the overrated part with a huge payroll.

But Pence would have been very poor value in lost trade chips and used up payroll space.

Ha wow, I hope that was pure sarcasm and I just did not get it. It almost has to be right?

Guacarock
10-02-2011, 03:08 AM
As long as Jocketty's been talking with the Astros, how about he resumes the conversation with a proposed swap of Bronson Arroyo, Edinson Volquez and Ryan Hanigan for Wandy Rodriguez plus $7 million cash?

Here's why it might work for both teams.

For the Reds: We can contend in 2012, but to do so, we need a reliable horse to anchor our rotation who can deliver 200 innings of quality pitching. We extended Arroyo last season hoping he could fill that role, after he had pitched 220.1 IP in 2009 and 215.2 IP in 2010 with a sub-3.90 ERA each of those years. He did eke out 199 IP this season, but his ERA ballooned to 5.07 and he set a new club record in surrendering 46 home runs. No doubt, his bout with mono negatively impacted his performance, and we can reasonably expect him to rebound in 2012. But even so, he probably won't eclipse Rodriguez, who has recorded between 191-205 IP over the last three seasons, always maintaining his ERA in a range between 3.02 and 3.60.

However you want to slice it or quantify performance, Rodriguez has been the superior pitcher over that time span. He has allowed 62 home runs vs. Arroyo's 106. He has collected 537 strikeouts vs. Arroyo's 356. He has accumulated 9.1 WAR vs. Arroyo's 2 WAR.

Moving forward, Rodriguez can be expected to continue to get the better of Arroyo. The Houston ace is two years younger, and while he's showing signs of slowing down, he's never fallen off a cliff like Arroyo did in 2012.

For the Astros: After sporting the worst record in all of baseball in 2011, they're a team that seriously needs to rebuild. They put Rodriguez on waivers in August with two goals in mind: To shed his contract and to acquire top prospects in return. No one was willing to deliver said prospects unless the Astros pretty much gave him away for free by underwriting a big chunk of his remaining contract. I'm not privy to the specific offers they received, but I highly doubt they had a chance to land talent as ML-tested as Volquez and Hanigan. Throw in Arroyo and the Astros would get what they need from the Reds -- a close-enough, innings-eating replacement for Rodriguez in Arroyo, a wild-card potential ace in Volquez and a smart, multi-skilled catcher in Hanigan to work with all of the Astros' young arms and shore up the ML's worst team catching (-1.0 WAR, according to Fangraphs) The fact that Arroyo and Volquez have American League experience also would be a plus, because it looks like the Astros could be forcibly moved into the Junior Circuit by 2013, as a condition of the team's pending sale.

Now, before all of you howl in advance that this trade is impossible because of the poison-pill deferral payments in Arroyo's contract and because we need Hanigan to break in Mesoraco, ponder these particulars:

* We don't really need Hanigan if we can re-sign Hernandez as Mesoraco's understudy. I don't see why we can't re-sign Clutch Man Monie after holding onto him through this past trading deadline, when he seemed like a goner for good. If Mesoraco's going to get schooled, who's better to serve as the mentor -- a grizzled veteran like Hernandez or a younger competitor who might chafe if he doesn't get 350-400 plate appearances? At his age, Hernandez might be happy and productive with 200-300 plate appearances, especially in Cincy where he seems to have found a groove as Cueto's preferred catcher. The nice part of this trade: We upgrade the rotation without having to deal Grandal.

* About Arroyo's deferral payments. When he signed his extension with the Reds, he agreed to receive about $7 million annually from 2011-2013 on the condition that he get deferred payments totaling $15 million through 2021. But if he is traded, a poison pill clause takes hold, and the $15 million becomes due immediately. All of us have assumed the poison pill makes it impossible to trade him. But what if he's dealt for Rodriguez, with the Astros agreeing to return $7 million to the Reds?

I can see that happening because the Astros still would free up $3 million in cash -- enough to cover both Hanigan and Volquez for 2012. Here's why: They give us $7 million and remain on the hook for Arroyo at a $7 million clip for 2012 and 2013, for a grand total of $21 million in payments. But they have shed their $10.5 million obligation to Rodriguez in 2012 and $13.5 million in 2013, or $24 million total.

Just like Arroyo's poison pill, Rodriguez has a trade clause that has stymied the Astros' abilities to deal him. He's currently signed through 2013 but a club option exists to re-sign him at $13 million in 2014. If he's dealt, though, that club option converts into a player option, meaning any team that acquires him can realistically expect to be on the hook for $36 million over the next three years for his services. If we get him, that's a risk we'd have to be willing to assume. But given their respective ages and levels of performance, I know I'd rather pay 3/36 for Rodriguez than 2/29 for Arroyo moving forward -- especially if the Reds and Astros split the onerous, upfront costs of swallowing these two contracts, their $7 million kick-in buying them a legitimate catcher and a potential ace.

There's the deal. It's a sausage grinder, but it does seem to address both teams' immediate and longer-range needs in a creative way. If the Astros were going to remain the NL Central, I don't see how this could ever get done, but with them likely to ship out soon to the AL West, I could see it happening. Whether it will is another story.

Patrick Bateman
10-02-2011, 12:03 PM
Ha wow, I hope that was pure sarcasm and I just did not get it. It almost has to be right?

Pence actually has a lot of flaws and would be only a maginal improvement based on the current assets of the Reds and does nothing to solve more pressing issues.

mth123
10-02-2011, 12:27 PM
Pence actually has a lot of flaws and would be only a maginal improvement based on the current assets of the Reds and does nothing to solve more pressing issues.

Who do the Reds have that can put up an .871 OPS in the OF and play adequate defense? Heisey? nope. Stubbs? The best he'll do is about 100 points lower. Sappelt? Not really, but I like his potential. Alonso? He's only matched it once in A+ and would be a defensive liability. Bruce? IMO he's better than Pence, but even he still hasn't done it.

I don't think acquiring a guy like Pence is the top priority (and I wouldn't have dealt Mes for him), but he would most definitely add some credibility to the middle of the order without the big defensive sacrafice that Alonso would be on the hope that he can translate his potential into production.

PuffyPig
10-02-2011, 12:29 PM
Ha wow, I hope that was pure sarcasm and I just did not get it. It almost has to be right?


Look at his stats.

Career .828 OPS, .343 OBA.

He'd play LF for us.

He'll cost about $9M next year, likely$12M in 2013, then he's a FA.

That's a lot of money tied up in a LF who hasn't exactly been a slugger over his career.

Overated certainly. H's nice player that will be very much overpaid. Paying that kind of money (to say nothig about e cost to get him) makes no sense to a team on a budget.

PuffyPig
10-02-2011, 12:32 PM
Who do the Reds have that can put up an .871 OPS in the OF and play adequate defense?



The Phillies might not have an OF who will do that either, as Pence is no guarantee to match his career year again.

mth123
10-02-2011, 12:34 PM
The Phillies might not have an OF who will do that either, as Pence is no guarantee to match his career year again.

OK. Lower the OPS to .800. The Reds still have only one guy in the OF mix that can do that.

Patrick Bateman
10-02-2011, 12:36 PM
OK. Lower the OPS to .800. The Reds still have only one guy in the OF mix that can do that.

Right, and the amount of upgrade that those stats offer over Heisey is not worth the prospects given up. A 1-1.5 win upgrade is not worth that.

A similarly talented pitcher IMO would be the better get for the price. As well the contractual situation with Pence does not fit with the current layout of the team.

Made more sense with a team like the Phillies where 2 years had value to them. Reds were unlikely to do much this year at the time of the deadline. The price for 1 year of Pence was clearly too high. Made much more sense for the Phillies.

signalhome
10-02-2011, 12:41 PM
OK. Lower the OPS to .800. The Reds still have only one guy in the OF mix that can do that.

The improvement (1-2 WAR) is not worth the prospects required to get him.

mth123
10-02-2011, 12:52 PM
Right, and the amount of upgrade that those stats offer over Heisey is not worth the prospects given up. A 1-1.5 win upgrade is not worth that.

A similarly talented pitcher IMO would be the better get for the price. As well the contractual situation with Pence does not fit with the current layout of the team.

Made more sense with a team like the Phillies where 2 years had value to them. Reds were unlikely to do much this year at the time of the deadline. The price for 1 year of Pence was clearly too high. Made much more sense for the Phillies.

I think if Heisey played every day, .750 OPS would be his high water mark and he'd be a guy we're always looking to upgrade from. He could probably be a decent guy in CF. I expect low .700s from Stubbs at best from here on out. The league has figured him out and keep him from making contact too much. Think Corey Patterson after the league figured him out. Alonso may or may not be viable in LF, but they probably need to deal him for a pitcher. Sappelt is the one guy I have some hope for but he's more of a CF bat than a guy who can justify LF when there are so many options that can do more.

I'm also not convinced that Pence won't continue to put up numbers in the .830 or so range anyway. I think he's at a different level than the Reds guys. Finally, 2 years does have value to the Reds. Once Votto and Phillips are gone, this team will have a much harder time being a contender. I'd rather add pieces while they are here and capitalize on it. Once they go, the team will take a step back. With the possible exception of Mesoraco and Cozart, the prospects coming aren't as good as the guys already here (Alonso included) so this team isn't going to be in any better position than it is right now. Time to go for it or forget about ever trying to win. I don't really see a better chance in the foreseeable future.

mth123
10-02-2011, 01:02 PM
The improvement (1-2 WAR) is not worth the prospects required to get him.

I guess its more than that and it is worth it. It would be an improvement in 3 spots. Pence would improve left. Heisey would be free to play CF and that would be a big imprvement and ALonso woud be freeed up for a deal for pitcihing. IMO that is worth a deal of Say Stubbs, Grandal, Corcino and some other guys. You're right though, the Reds don't really have the guys to match what the Phillies paid. which ari potential answers as a future TOR starter, a future clean-up hitter and a future closer.

The Reds need help now when the team has a chance not mid level prospects to replace guys down the road to keep the team in baseball purgatory by being better than a complete black hole but not good eough to win. I'd rather take a shot at winning now while the most talented guys are on the team together.

_Sir_Charles_
10-02-2011, 01:08 PM
Ha wow, I hope that was pure sarcasm and I just did not get it. It almost has to be right?

I sure don't think it was. I saw Pence all the time. He's a decent player, but extremely overrated. And undoubtedly will be overpriced.

PuffyPig
10-02-2011, 01:26 PM
I guess its more than that and it is worth it. It would be an improvement in 3 spots. Pence would improve left. Heisey would be free to play CF and that would be a big imprvement and ALonso woud be freeed up for a deal for pitcihing. IMO that is worth a deal of Say Stubbs, Grandal, Corcino and some other guys. You're right though, the Reds don't really have the guys to match what the Phillies paid. which ari potential answers as a future TOR starter, a future clean-up hitter and a future closer.

The Reds need help now when the team has a chance not mid level prospects to replace guys down the road to keep the team in baseball purgatory by being better than a complete black hole but not good eough to win. I'd rather take a shot at winning now while the most talented guys are on the team together.

Your thought process is OK, but your target is wrong.

Pence is extremely overrated for what he brings. We could obtain a competent LF who can give us an .800 OPS without spending $10M and sacrificing valuable prospects.

mth123
10-02-2011, 01:36 PM
Your thought process is OK, but your target is wrong.

Pence is extremely overrated for what he brings. We could obtain a competent LF who can give us an .800 OPS without spending $10M and sacrificing valuable prospects.

Names. I keep hearing this, but the Reds never do it. Willingham was dealt for spare parts last year and the Reds didn't do anything. THe Reds had a big time lefty killer and didn't bring in a LH hitting partner on the cheap. They just don't do anything but watch the core grow more expensive and closer to leaving.

I'd rather overpay and get some guys in place to make a run than hold everybody to preserve 3rd place for 3 years from now.

PuffyPig
10-02-2011, 02:08 PM
I'd rather overpay and get some guys in place to make a run than hold everybody to preserve 3rd place for 3 years from now.

How about a 3rd choice.

Pay equal value for a cheap, acceptable replacement.

I doubt the choices are overpay or stand pat.

WMR
10-02-2011, 02:19 PM
Do, or do not, there is no try.

mth123
10-02-2011, 06:07 PM
How about a 3rd choice.

Pay equal value for a cheap, acceptable replacement.

I doubt the choices are overpay or stand pat.

Yet stand pat is what they did and it was a lost year. Maybe its not overpaying as much as you think it is.

savafan
10-02-2011, 09:14 PM
I just don't think we should continue trying to build for the future when you've got a chance to win now. Ask Pirate fans. Ask Cub fans. Realistically speaking, I just don't see how a small market team can maintain competitiveness over a number of years under MLB's current set up.

kaldaniels
10-02-2011, 11:07 PM
Do, or do not, there is no try.

An easy quote to put up, but what do you mean? Obtain Hunter Pence no matter the cost? Win the World Series or don't? I understand the attitude that Walt needs to be more aggressive, but that quote is so extreme, I just gotta ask how you see it applying here. Being aggressive over the next season or so simply amounts to "trying" to win the World Series. Point being "try" is not a bad word in my opinion.

puca
10-03-2011, 06:24 AM
Do, or do not, there is no try.

So did the Indians do or did they do not?

membengal
10-03-2011, 06:35 AM
Um, any deal that would have included Mes going to Houston for Pence would have been an awful, awful, terrible deal. So...glad we didn't get him.

WMR
10-03-2011, 07:02 AM
My point is: When is Jocketty going to put his stamp on this team?

What he's done so far is coma-inducing.

Like they say across the pond in soccer, it's hard to fancy your chances if you don't buy a ticket to the raffle.

Griffey012
10-03-2011, 07:19 AM
Look at his stats.

Career .828 OPS, .343 OBA.

He'd play LF for us.

He'll cost about $9M next year, likely$12M in 2013, then he's a FA.

That's a lot of money tied up in a LF who hasn't exactly been a slugger over his career.

Overated certainly. H's nice player that will be very much overpaid. Paying that kind of money (to say nothig about e cost to get him) makes no sense to a team on a budget.


He has also done that being one of the main guys in a not good lineup. Put him in front of Votto in the 2 spot and he is going to get plenty to hit, and will find himself scoring a lot of runs. Not to mention he would solidify our LF issue moving forward. Since 2007 he has average just a tick under 4 WAR per season. At 9 million that is a deal and at 12 million that is still 3 million per WAR which I believe is still below average.

To me Pence is a guy that is rated exactly what he is. He isn't looked at as a superstar but is definitely viewed as a good player. I tend to believe many people think he gets undue attention due to his unorthodox style, but in reality he produces at a pretty high level, and deserves the attention he gets.

_Sir_Charles_
10-03-2011, 11:21 AM
He has also done that being one of the main guys in a not good lineup. Put him in front of Votto in the 2 spot and he is going to get plenty to hit, and will find himself scoring a lot of runs. Not to mention he would solidify our LF issue moving forward. Since 2007 he has average just a tick under 4 WAR per season. At 9 million that is a deal and at 12 million that is still 3 million per WAR which I believe is still below average.

To me Pence is a guy that is rated exactly what he is. He isn't looked at as a superstar but is definitely viewed as a good player. I tend to believe many people think he gets undue attention due to his unorthodox style, but in reality he produces at a pretty high level, and deserves the attention he gets.

In 2011, that's true. But it wasn't true in previous years. He used to have a productive Berkman, Carlos Lee, even Miggy Tejada hitting around him. As for this year, in 100 games with the Astros, Pence hit 11 hr's. That's a pretty steep drop off from what he was expected to do. And then in around 50 games with the Phillies, he hits another 11.

I'm not saying he's a bad player. But he IS vastly overrated. His defense is average, his arm is average. He's got decent speed, but doesn't run the bases well. He runs them aggressively, but not smartly. IMO, at the plate, he's an outfield version of Brandon Phillips.

RedsManRick
10-03-2011, 01:20 PM
Pence is a nice player, solidly above average. But we should expect a repeat of 2011, rather more like the .280/.340/.470 he put up the last few years. Considering that's basically what we got from Bruce, I'd say that's a nice guy to have around. I just wouldn't wanted to have traded Mes for him.

Griffey012
10-03-2011, 06:28 PM
In 2011, that's true. But it wasn't true in previous years. He used to have a productive Berkman, Carlos Lee, even Miggy Tejada hitting around him. As for this year, in 100 games with the Astros, Pence hit 11 hr's. That's a pretty steep drop off from what he was expected to do. And then in around 50 games with the Phillies, he hits another 11.

I'm not saying he's a bad player. But he IS vastly overrated. His defense is average, his arm is average. He's got decent speed, but doesn't run the bases well. He runs them aggressively, but not smartly. IMO, at the plate, he's an outfield version of Brandon Phillips.

In 2010 Berkman and Carlos Lee were pretty pedestrian. Miggy has a solid '09 but other than that was nothing to get worried about. Lee and Berkman was good from 07-09, but the lineup as a whole was nothing exciting and Pence was nearly always stuck hitting behind those guys instead of in front of them.

The Phillips comparison at the plate is selling Pence quite a bit short. Phillips best OPS is for a season is .810, Pence has a career average of .828. Phillips provides better defense, and overall you can probably expect them to provide about the same WAR, with Pence's being more offensively driven and Phillips getting an extra boost from his defense.

I just don't see how one can claim Pence is vastly overrated. I don't read about him being throw in as one of the top players in baseball. I don't see anyone claiming he is a centerpiece to build a team around. If you are going to say Hunter Pence is vastly overrated, then Brandon Phillips is vastly overrated as well...which I don't think is true.