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Vottomatic
10-03-2011, 09:35 AM
As long as Jocketty's been talking with the Astros, how about he resumes the conversation with a proposed swap of Bronson Arroyo, Edinson Volquez and Ryan Hanigan for Wandy Rodriguez plus $7 million cash?

Here's why it might work for both teams.

For the Reds: We can contend in 2012, but to do so, we need a reliable horse to anchor our rotation who can deliver 200 innings of quality pitching. We extended Arroyo last season hoping he could fill that role, after he had pitched 220.1 IP in 2009 and 215.2 IP in 2010 with a sub-3.90 ERA each of those years. He did eke out 199 IP this season, but his ERA ballooned to 5.07 and he set a new club record in surrendering 46 home runs. No doubt, his bout with mono negatively impacted his performance, and we can reasonably expect him to rebound in 2012. But even so, he probably won't eclipse Rodriguez, who has recorded between 191-205 IP over the last three seasons, always maintaining his ERA in a range between 3.02 and 3.60.

However you want to slice it or quantify performance, Rodriguez has been the superior pitcher over that time span. He has allowed 62 home runs vs. Arroyo's 106. He has collected 537 strikeouts vs. Arroyo's 356. He has accumulated 9.1 WAR vs. Arroyo's 2 WAR.

Moving forward, Rodriguez can be expected to continue to get the better of Arroyo. The Houston ace is two years younger, and while he's showing signs of slowing down, he's never fallen off a cliff like Arroyo did in 2012.

For the Astros: After sporting the worst record in all of baseball in 2011, they're a team that seriously needs to rebuild. They put Rodriguez on waivers in August with two goals in mind: To shed his contract and to acquire top prospects in return. No one was willing to deliver said prospects unless the Astros pretty much gave him away for free by underwriting a big chunk of his remaining contract. I'm not privy to the specific offers they received, but I highly doubt they had a chance to land talent as ML-tested as Volquez and Hanigan. Throw in Arroyo and the Astros would get what they need from the Reds -- a close-enough, innings-eating replacement for Rodriguez in Arroyo, a wild-card potential ace in Volquez and a smart, multi-skilled catcher in Hanigan to work with all of the Astros' young arms and shore up the ML's worst team catching (-1.0 WAR, according to Fangraphs) The fact that Arroyo and Volquez have American League experience also would be a plus, because it looks like the Astros could be forcibly moved into the Junior Circuit by 2013, as a condition of the team's pending sale.

Now, before all of you howl in advance that this trade is impossible because of the poison-pill deferral payments in Arroyo's contract and because we need Hanigan to break in Mesoraco, ponder these particulars:

* We don't really need Hanigan if we can re-sign Hernandez as Mesoraco's understudy. I don't see why we can't re-sign Clutch Man Monie after holding onto him through this past trading deadline, when he seemed like a goner for good. If Mesoraco's going to get schooled, who's better to serve as the mentor -- a grizzled veteran like Hernandez or a younger competitor who might chafe if he doesn't get 350-400 plate appearances? At his age, Hernandez might be happy and productive with 200-300 plate appearances, especially in Cincy where he seems to have found a groove as Cueto's preferred catcher. The nice part of this trade: We upgrade the rotation without having to deal Grandal.

* About Arroyo's deferral payments. When he signed his extension with the Reds, he agreed to receive about $7 million annually from 2011-2013 on the condition that he get deferred payments totaling $15 million through 2021. But if he is traded, a poison pill clause takes hold, and the $15 million becomes due immediately. All of us have assumed the poison pill makes it impossible to trade him. But what if he's dealt for Rodriguez, with the Astros agreeing to return $7 million to the Reds?

I can see that happening because the Astros still would free up $3 million in cash -- enough to cover both Hanigan and Volquez for 2012. Here's why: They give us $7 million and remain on the hook for Arroyo at a $7 million clip for 2012 and 2013, for a grand total of $21 million in payments. But they have shed their $10.5 million obligation to Rodriguez in 2012 and $13.5 million in 2013, or $24 million total.

Just like Arroyo's poison pill, Rodriguez has a trade clause that has stymied the Astros' abilities to deal him. He's currently signed through 2013 but a club option exists to re-sign him at $13 million in 2014. If he's dealt, though, that club option converts into a player option, meaning any team that acquires him can realistically expect to be on the hook for $36 million over the next three years for his services. If we get him, that's a risk we'd have to be willing to assume. But given their respective ages and levels of performance, I know I'd rather pay 3/36 for Rodriguez than 2/29 for Arroyo moving forward -- especially if the Reds and Astros split the onerous, upfront costs of swallowing these two contracts, their $7 million kick-in buying them a legitimate catcher and a potential ace.

There's the deal. It's a sausage grinder, but it does seem to address both teams' immediate and longer-range needs in a creative way. If the Astros were going to remain the NL Central, I don't see how this could ever get done, but with them likely to ship out soon to the AL West, I could see it happening. Whether it will is another story.


I like the idea, I would rather substitute someone else for Hanigan, though. Well thought out.

texasdave
10-03-2011, 10:25 AM
The Astros are rebuilding. Why would they want any of those three? They are looking for youth. That trade would never happen. Now watch it go down the day after the WS ends.

nmculbreth
10-03-2011, 11:02 AM
The Astros are rebuilding. Why would they want any of those three? They are looking for youth. That trade would never happen. Now watch it go down the day after the WS ends.

Agreed. The Astros are looking to acquire cheap talent that is under team control for a long time, which makes me skeptical that they'd have any interest in this kind of package. Volquez has some upside potential but he becomes a free agent after 2013 and is going to become fairly expensive. Hanigan is a nice player for a good team but hardly the type of player that a rebuilding team is going to covet and Arroyo is a less attractive version of Wandy. I'd imagine if the Astros are going to pick up $7mil of Wandy's contract that they're going to be looking for a package of prospects that helps in their rebuilding process.

texasdave
10-03-2011, 11:12 AM
I am not saying it wasn't fair or creative or anything. I just don't feel Houston has much interest in the players they would receive.

brm7675
10-03-2011, 12:25 PM
Zero chance of that happening....heck zero chance it even being discussed.

Billy Hamilton's Legs
10-03-2011, 12:26 PM
agreed. you have to take an honest look from the other side of the table when making these trade proposals. you can throw in as many guys as you want, but unless they're legitimate, productive ML starters or prospects, the other team has no interest in them. bronson looked like he might be done, volquez went from OD starter to AAA, hanigan is a nice platoon/backup. wandy is an ace or a #2.

Vottomatic
10-03-2011, 02:01 PM
I am not saying it wasn't fair or creative or anything. I just don't feel Houston has much interest in the players they would receive.

I agree about the players coming from the Reds.

I disagree about Arroyo-Wandy contract swap.

I agree with the original poster that Houston obviously had trouble unloading Wandy because of his contract.

Arroyo signed for 2 more years for a total of $23.5M. Wandy signed for 3 more years for a total of $37.5M. Wandy's numbers are consistently far better than Arroyo's.

My problem is that the original poster seemed to be trying to unload 2 of our problems (Arroyo, Volquez), thinking the Astros would want our junk. And Hanigan is signed very reasonably. I don't want to trade him, and I like platooning our catchers.

Package Arroyo with 1 or 2 decent prospects, and they might be willing to take on Arroyo's contract for 2 years while unloading Wandy's 3 contract (since they're rebuilding anyway). I think that's what you have to do to unload a contract.

I'd love to pick up Wandy while unloading Arroyo. And then somehow trade for Shields.

Cueto
Shields
Wandy R.
Leake
Bailey

Pretty good rotation there. The first 3, based on their history, should all post sub-4.00 e.r.a.'s, and Leake and Bailey has that ability.

nux fan
10-03-2011, 02:55 PM
who would want volquez named the worst pitcher in the national league by the times or arroyo

brm7675
10-03-2011, 03:50 PM
who would want volquez named the worst pitcher in the national league by the times or arroyo

There are a number of teams out there that would want both. There are going to be teams that see that EV issues are just a flaw in his delivery and with the right pitching coach those flaws can be corrected. How many poor pitchers has Dave Duncan of the Cards turned into studs.

As for Bronson again a number of teams would love to have a pitcher who eats innings and shows up every start, especially those in pitchers parks. Again your ability to understand and judge this game lacks in so much.

nux fan
10-03-2011, 04:04 PM
again your pompous condescending , loyalist views are not appreciated, arroyo is on the downside of his "career" and volquez is a mental case, I would ove to package both of them and your hero stubbs and the result would be addition by subtraction,

Jefferson24
10-03-2011, 05:08 PM
This is another situation where some of us Reds fan's think that certain players actually have value when, if fact, they do not.

The are not going to give up talent for 3 no talents or had talents.

brm7675
10-03-2011, 06:12 PM
again your pompous condescending , loyalist views are not appreciated, arroyo is on the downside of his "career" and volquez is a mental case, I would ove to package both of them and your hero stubbs and the result would be addition by subtraction,

And again you have no clue what you are talking about, you are a knee jerk reaction fan who can't look past 1 season.

brm7675
10-03-2011, 06:17 PM
again your pompous condescending , loyalist views are not appreciated, arroyo is on the downside of his "career" and volquez is a mental case, I would ove to package both of them and your hero stubbs and the result would be addition by subtraction,

Bronson on the "downside" I guess could be true if you think he will win 17-18 games and have a sub 3.00 era next year, but there is no reason not to think he can't have a upper 3 close to 4 era next year with 200+ innings pitched and give the Reds 13-15 victories next year which for any team would take out of their 3/4 guy in their rotation especially in a hitters park like Cincy. As for Stubbs, he needs to cut his K's by about 50-55 and increase his OBP by some which he can do...

DocRed
10-03-2011, 07:43 PM
zero chance...why would the Astros take on Arroyo's contract?? And to boot he is the worst pitcher in the NL...

texasdave
10-03-2011, 07:45 PM
There are a number of teams out there that would want both. There are going to be teams that see that EV issues are just a flaw in his delivery and with the right pitching coach those flaws can be corrected. How many poor pitchers has Dave Duncan of the Cards turned into studs.

As for Bronson again a number of teams would love to have a pitcher who eats innings and shows up every start, especially those in pitchers parks. Again your ability to understand and judge this game lacks in so much.

Teams don't want Bronson. Stop kidding yourself. Not at his contract. Not coming off the year he just put up. Bronson is untradable unless the Reds include either a bunch of cash or bunch of talented prospects.

nux fan
10-03-2011, 08:09 PM
perhaps brm thinks arroyo is the next bruce berenyi and that stubbs is the next gary varsho

brm7675
10-03-2011, 08:26 PM
perhaps brm thinks arroyo is the next bruce berenyi and that stubbs is the next gary varsho

No I think Bronson could be the next Jamie Moyer and given time Stubbs could a Hunter Pence type of player.

nux fan
10-03-2011, 08:32 PM
again you are wrong,, arroyo will be lucky next year to equal Mike LaCoss and Stubbs will belucky to equal Larry Biitner

brm7675
10-03-2011, 08:38 PM
again you are wrong,, arroyo will be lucky next year to equal Mike LaCoss and Stubbs will belucky to equal Larry Biitner

And you are basing this off of what?

nux fan
10-03-2011, 08:44 PM
the same drivel that you are basing your mary poppins distorted love fest for arroyo and stubbs, you go research what player combines over 200 strikeouts with little power, in a year where there is supposed to be improvement, as for arroyo he belongs in the land of Jose Lima with whom he shares his gopher ball history, arroyo is a possibly serviceable long reliever not an "innings eater" with an above 5 ERA, you might be the only non Arroyo family member who defends this guy

brm7675
10-03-2011, 08:52 PM
the same drivel that you are basing your mary poppins distorted love fest for arroyo and stubbs, you go research what player combines over 200 strikeouts with little power, in a year where there is supposed to be improvement, as for arroyo he belongs in the land of Jose Lima with whom he shares his gopher ball history, arroyo is a possibly serviceable long reliever not an "innings eater" with an above 5 ERA, you might be the only non Arroyo family member who defends this guy

Show me where every 2nd year player improves? there is a huge number of players who in their second year really struggle, the league has figured them out and now, it's up to the player to work on those skills and improve in coming seasons. You are not even open minded enough to even consider to see if Stubbs can improve.

Lets see for Bronson, how many seasons has he given up more then 31+ homeruns out of 12 seasons in pro ball with 6 of those pitching in homerdome stadium GABP? Of his 12 seasons how many times has his ERA been above 5? In 12 seasons how many times has he pitched over 200 innigns? Again, please go do some research then come back...

dMaus14
10-03-2011, 09:52 PM
What do you think it would take to get Lowrie and Bard from the RedSox? I think Lowrie could be pretty easy but Bard might take something. I figure they could be cheap replacements for our closer and SS / Utility infielder.

I like a trade with the Giants for Jonathon Sanchez but I wouldn't mind bringing home Eric Surkamp ('05 Moeller grad) as well. Then i think we should look into signing Bedard (made $1 million this past year) and Kazmir on a minor league deal.

Vottomatic
10-03-2011, 10:32 PM
What do you think it would take to get Lowrie and Bard from the RedSox? I think Lowrie could be pretty easy but Bard might take something. I figure they could be cheap replacements for our closer and SS / Utility infielder.

I like a trade with the Giants for Jonathon Sanchez but I wouldn't mind bringing home Eric Surkamp ('05 Moeller grad) as well. Then i think we should look into signing Bedard (made $1 million this past year) and Kazmir on a minor league deal.

Kazmir and Bedard are possibilities. Look what they did with Dontrelle Willis this year.

Reds might want to consider promoting Ted Power to the majors. He seems to do wonders with these guys in triple A.

I'm in with the Sanchez trade. I'd do that for the guys going in that trade.

dMaus14
10-03-2011, 10:42 PM
And the one thing about Drew Stubbs is that I have read on ORG that we should pursue Jayson Heyward. Well didn't he just go through a bad sophomore slump this past season? And didn't we all think the same thing about Jay Bruce when he struggled? I know he struck out 200 some times but its the major leagues and I will be honest I don't think Sappelt is much better. I think Heisey does deserve a shot but I think his true calling is that 4th OF which isn't a bad thing. I also think that a possible FA signee is David DeJesus. I think he handles the bat well and is coming off a down year (they batted him 3-4 all year and I think he is a 2, 5-6).

dMaus14
10-03-2011, 11:21 PM
Saw this on ORG:
How about a monster, blockbuster deal?

Reds deal Bailey, Arroyo, Stubbs, Francisco/ Frazier, Massett, and Bruce

while

Boston deals Youkilis, Jed Lowrie, pitching prospect Alex Wilson, pitching prospect Kyle Weiland, and Clay Bucholz?

I think we are overvaluing our prospects a little but what about something like this:

Reds: Bailey, Stubbs, Masset, Francisco, Arroyo, Wood, (maybe another C prospect because their farm is depleted)

for

RedSox: Buckholz, Lowrie, Bard

Then sign Bedard, Kazmir, Willis to low major league or even minor league contracts.

Then trade Alonso, Grandal, Sappelt and ? for James Shields.

Then look into signing Grady Sizemore, Dave DeJesus for the outfield. Bring up Boxberger for the bullpen.

C: Hanigan, Mesoraco
1B: Votto
2B: Phillips
SS: Lowrie / Cozart
3B: Rolen / Frazier / Cairo
LF: DeJesus?? / Heisey
CF: Sizemore?? / Heisey
RF: Bruce

SP: 1-Shields, 2-Buckholz, 3-Cueto, 4-Leake, 5-Volquez, Willis, Bedard, Kazmir

Bullpen: Bray, Burton, Ondrusek, Broxberger, Lecure
SU: Chapman
CL: Bard

Vottomatic
10-04-2011, 09:12 AM
Saw this on ORG:
How about a monster, blockbuster deal?

Reds deal Bailey, Arroyo, Stubbs, Francisco/ Frazier, Massett, and Bruce

while

Boston deals Youkilis, Jed Lowrie, pitching prospect Alex Wilson, pitching prospect Kyle Weiland, and Clay Bucholz?

I think we are overvaluing our prospects a little but what about something like this:

Reds: Bailey, Stubbs, Masset, Francisco, Arroyo, Wood, (maybe another C prospect because their farm is depleted)

for

RedSox: Buckholz, Lowrie, Bard

Then sign Bedard, Kazmir, Willis to low major league or even minor league contracts.

Then trade Alonso, Grandal, Sappelt and ? for James Shields.

Then look into signing Grady Sizemore, Dave DeJesus for the outfield. Bring up Boxberger for the bullpen.

C: Hanigan, Mesoraco
1B: Votto
2B: Phillips
SS: Lowrie / Cozart
3B: Rolen / Frazier / Cairo
LF: DeJesus?? / Heisey
CF: Sizemore?? / Heisey
RF: Bruce

SP: 1-Shields, 2-Buckholz, 3-Cueto, 4-Leake, 5-Volquez, Willis, Bedard, Kazmir

Bullpen: Bray, Burton, Ondrusek, Broxberger, Lecure
SU: Chapman
CL: Bard

Youkilis just went on the DL on September 28th with a sports hernia and hip bursitis. He's 32 years old and his overall numbers showed a decline. Not sure I want to get any older. It makes for a nice story, him being a Cincinnati native, but I don't think it's the smart thing to do.

brm7675
10-04-2011, 12:13 PM
I wonder how hard of a laugh Walt would have reading some of these trades.....

Vottomatic
10-04-2011, 12:16 PM
I wonder how hard of a laugh Walt would have reading some of these trades.....

Probably as hard a laugh and we will have laughing at you when something does happen.

You poo-poo everything, yet offer no suggestions or solutions.

And besides, this is a discussion forum to throw ideas around. People can agree to disagree in a polite manner. You and Nux should try it sometime.

texasdave
10-04-2011, 01:17 PM
I wonder how hard of a laugh Walt would have reading some of these trades.....

He would have to wake up first. When is the last time he pulled off a trade that actually helped the team? August of 2009? It is going to be 2012 soon. That snooze button has to be worn out by now.

brm7675
10-04-2011, 01:29 PM
Probably as hard a laugh and we will have laughing at you when something does happen.

You poo-poo everything, yet offer no suggestions or solutions.

And besides, this is a discussion forum to throw ideas around. People can agree to disagree in a polite manner. You and Nux should try it sometime.

Because nothing is going to happen. Walt will sign a few cheapo FA and that is about it. He has shown either he refuses to part with young talent or the asking price was to high. Sure he could probably have gotten Shields but at way to much of a cost and I dont' see that changing. I mean I stated back at the trading deadline what I would have given up for Pence, and such. We know we have limited funds thus say you go after Shields, unless a higher end contract is included, how do you fit him into the budget when you are giving up young cheap players?

The Operator
10-04-2011, 03:46 PM
Just wanted to drop by and say the bickering going on in this thread needs to stop, and fast. You're free to disagree with each other but when it gets personal, that's where it needs to stop. Those who I'm directing this at know who you are.

LeDoux
10-04-2011, 04:55 PM
I must be missing something. I thought Arroyo received all of his deferred money if he was traded. If this is true, I would think this would make Arroyo a Red for the next two years since swaping his contract would demand significant "up front" money.