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TRF
10-04-2011, 03:20 PM
With Rolen injured essentially the entire year, third base was a bit of a black hole. Cairo and Rolen were awful offensively. Frazier posted a .763 OPS in 86 AB's, Francisco .814 in 82 AB's. both hit fairly well in the minors, so an OPS north of .800 isn't a stretch for either player.

So, how do you as GM handle 3B? You can fill the position from within, sign a FA to be or go after a player rumored to be available.

This is a position i feel can be filled in house. Rolen can't really be traded, but I'm not counting on his health. Fortunately there are 2 guys that are as major league ready as the Reds can make them. And I can have them both on my 25 man roster. Frazier fills the supersub role, all IF positions and LF. Francisco backs up 3B, 1B and LF. I put Sappelt in AAA.

reds1869
10-04-2011, 03:23 PM
I definitely keep Francisco as 1a. Frazier can fill Cairo's role if Miguel doesn't make the 25 man.

RedsManRick
10-04-2011, 03:37 PM
Rolen underwent surgery and should be in better health this year -- as in 2010 plus a few years of aging.

I prefer Frazier to Fransisco, because he's right handed, because Fransisco refuses to take a walk and because his defense seems steadier. I'm not sure that either he or Fransisco is an ideal long-term solution however. The next guy in the pipeline worth talking about is David Vidal but he's 3+ years off.

For 2012, I'd have Frazier as my primary backup and get him at least 2 starts a week. With Fransisco I'd be moving him to a team that believes his bat will play -- perhaps for a high leverage reliever.

lollipopcurve
10-04-2011, 04:06 PM
because Fransisco refuses to take a walk and because his defense seems steadier.

Based on what the two showed in Cincy this summer, Francisco is clearly the better defender.


For 2012, I'd have Frazier as my primary backup and get him at least 2 starts a week. With Fransisco I'd be moving him to a team that believes his bat will play -- perhaps for a high leverage reliever.

Leaving the team with who for 2013? Frazier? I don't see it. He's been trained as a utility player, and that looks like it was a good decision, IMO. The glove and bat are both mediocre.

I like the upside of Francisco quite a bit. Give the kid time to learn at the major league level. Unless you can package him for a long-term answer at 3rd, dealing him leaves the team with a hole at 3B, IMO, and that can be a very hard spot to fill. Now, maybe Henry Rodriguez can be the guy, but we're a year away from having a solid read on HRod....

mace
10-04-2011, 04:22 PM
This one's easy for me. Francisco. His defense this year (in a short time in Cincinnati) was surprisingly good, and his pitch selection didn't seem horrible. Yeah, he overswings, especially with two strikes, but who doesn't these days? The clincher is that he's definitely a power, middle-of-the-order guy who can actually be an asset in the lineup on the days he plays. He always has and will continue, in my opinion, to drive in runs. His presence will enable them to spot Rolen. I wouldn't plan on Rolen for more than 80-100 games.

The only downside is using up the roster spot. If Francisco sticks (and doesn't play any LF), and Janish is kept as the SS backup, there's no room for either Cairo or Frazier (provided they keep 5 OF and 12 P's).

mth123
10-04-2011, 07:30 PM
Rolen, Francisco, Frazier and Cairo should all be on the 25 man Roster. Rolen is the de facto starter, but I'd consider 90 Games with a .725 OPS to be a decent expectation. Francisco should be a guy who plays a couple times each week against hopefully hand picked opposition that he could mash. Frazier plays all over as the 25th man seeing time at all positions except for CF, C and P. As long as Cozart is healthy, Frazier would be my back-up at SS, though he would not become the starter if Cozart becomes unavailable. Cairo is primarily a PH, with occasional starts at 3B and 2B.

I don't do anything about acquiring a 3B for 2012. I'd try to change the guard during the season while Rolen is still around and Francisco and Frazier show what they can do. If the team feels they aren't the answer going into 2013, then the off-season after 2012 is when it should be addressed. The team can't put more money or resources into this spot IMO. Other priorities, namely a pitcher and a middle of the order bat, dictate that the team should use its in-house organizational depth here.

Will M
10-04-2011, 07:54 PM
Rolen, Francisco, Frazier and Cairo should all be on the 25 man Roster. Rolen is the de facto starter, but I'd consider 90 Games with a .725 OPS to be a decent expectation. Francisco should be a guy who plays a couple times each week against hopefully hand picked opposition that he could mash. Frazier plays all over as the 25th man seeing time at all positions except for CF, C and P. As long as Cozart is healthy, Frazier would be my back-up at SS, though he would not become the starter if Cozart becomes unavailable. Cairo is primarily a PH, with occasional starts at 3B and 2B.

I don't do anything about acquiring a 3B for 2012. I'd try to change the guard during the season while Rolen is still around and Francisco and Frazier show what they can do. If the team feels they aren't the answer going into 2013, then the off-season after 2012 is when it should be addressed. The team can't put more money or resources into this spot IMO. Other priorities, namely a pitcher and a middle of the order bat, dictate that the team should use its in-house organizational depth here.

Janish can be in AAA if Cozart gets hurt. i really like the idea of Frazier being the backup SS. i think its unclear who will emerge as the better player between Frazier and Francisco. its also unclear if either of them will be washouts or everyday major league players. i'd like to keep both, give them some playing time & see how it shakes out.

bench is Hanigan, Frazier, Francisco, Cairo & the 4th outfielder

Dan
10-04-2011, 09:08 PM
In a world where I can do anything I want and money's no object, I'd love to see the Reds pick up Aramis Ramirez and let Rolen go. However, if I'm going to sign a free agent, the only reasonable one who would put up decent production is Wilson Betemit.

Realistically, I thing some mixture of Rolen/Fransisco/Frazier is going to man 3rd next season. And I can live with that for one year. Long term I don't think any of those players are a solution.

Actually, if you want a long-term solution at 3b, I don't see why Phillips can't move there as he gets older. His athletic body translates well, and if they can get a replacement to play 2b solidly (Hamilton? Torreys?) then that move makes sense.

HokieRed
10-04-2011, 09:33 PM
I think we get the best production out of Rolen if he is healthy, for which I pray. I think he might just be able to do it for one more year. Francisco behind him. Frazier has yet to convince me. I could see him starting the year at AAA.

PuffyPig
10-04-2011, 10:35 PM
Cairo and Rolen were awful offensively.

Cairo had a .742 OPS, which is above average in the majors, and even more above average for a 3B.

Just sayin'.

I certainly don't want him starting though.

dfs
10-04-2011, 11:59 PM
I run Rolen out there on a short leash. After that the job goes to Francisco.

We all love the results from Cairo, but he's almost exactly the same roster slot that Frazier is. Seems like a waste of cash.

TRF
10-05-2011, 09:24 AM
Cairo had a .742 OPS, which is above average in the majors, and even more above average for a 3B.

Just sayin'.

I certainly don't want him starting though.

Cairo as a 3B this year

.254 .323 .370 .694

awful.

chicoruiz
10-05-2011, 10:14 AM
Cairo as a 3B this year

.254 .323 .370 .694




Yeah but it's not like he suddenly can't hit as well if he's playing 3B. The overall numbers are a larger sample size, and more truly reflective of his ability.

I think an out-of-house option here would be a waste of money. I'd be fine with a healthy Rolen, or I'd be fine with a Francisco-Cairo platoon. What I DON'T want is a wounded but gutsy Rolen being penciled in the lineup just because he's Scott Rolen. We just saw how that worked out.

PuffyPig
10-05-2011, 10:22 AM
Cairo as a 3B this year

.254 .323 .370 .694

awful.

But still likley above average foor third baseman this year.

I think even Rolen had an above average OPS for thirdbaseman, which was a black hole in the majors this year.

But as was said, I'm not sure why you would prefer the smaller sample size comparison.

Scrap Irony
10-05-2011, 10:34 AM
The Reds ranked above the middle of the pack at 3B production in WAR and wOBA, IIRC.

I'd go with Rolen and Francisco as a platoon unless I could find something else. (And I'd look.) For now, it's not as big of a problem as other items. Fix the starting pitching and the relief pitching, then go to work on the lineup.

TRF
10-05-2011, 10:43 AM
But still likley above average foor third baseman this year.

I think even Rolen had an above average OPS for thirdbaseman, which was a black hole in the majors this year.

But as was said, I'm not sure why you would prefer the smaller sample size comparison.

It isn't a preference. that was the production from 3B this year. overall.... wretched. and that was the BULK of his PA's this year.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/splits/_/id/3425/miguel-cairo

I don't think the overall numbers are more reflective. In this case, he got 181 AB's as a 3B, and he wasn't very good.

Scrap Irony
10-05-2011, 11:01 AM
The Reds were actually well above average at 3B this year.

They were 8th overall (3rd in the NL) in terms of WAR. They were 13th in wOBA, but sixth in slugging. Cincinnati 3B also played well with the leather.

Overall, their production was not just positive, but well above league average for 3B.

IslandRed
10-05-2011, 11:02 AM
I tend to agree with most here -- it may not be pretty, but I think the Reds have enough in-house options even with Rolen's iffy health. At least for this year. 2013 is an interesting discussion. I'm not completely sold on either Frazier or Francisco. In the latter's case, I still think long-term exposure to major-league pitching won't be good for him until he learns to take ball four. He's pretty easy pickings right now for any pitcher who doesn't make a mistake, and pitchers in the show make fewer mistakes than the ones in the minors.

Mario-Rijo
10-06-2011, 06:15 AM
Volquez, Francisco & Stubbs to the Mets
David Wright & enough cash to make the deal respectable to the Reds

Alonso, Grandal, Masset & Frazier to the Rays
Shields to the Reds

Rolen & cash to the Cubs for Campana (who promptly gets sent to Louisville)

Sign Clint Barmes & Coco Crisp

Sign one of (in order of preference) Willingham, Cuddyer, Kubel, S. Hairston, J. Rivera. The 1st 2 to start, the 3rd to platoon with Heisey or the 2 latter to compete with Heisey for the starting job/ backup possibly.

Crisp CF
BP 2B
Votto 1B
Wright 3B
Bruce RF
Willingham LF
Mes C
Cozart SS

Hanny C
Barmes IF
Cairo UT
Heisey OF
Sappelt OF

Shields
Cueto
Leake
Bailey
Arroyo (I think sans mono he should bounce back a bit)

Co-Co (you know it's gonna happen)
Chapman
Ondrusek
Bray
Burton (if healthy, if not Boxberger)
LeCure
Wood (I think if he keeps the ball down better he'll do pretty well)

That should about cover the whole team as best as I think is possible. It's time to go for it not dilly dally around with prospects anymore. Those youngsters who are left need to break thru or not play at all. And I am not of the mindset to wait around to see if Rolen can help us or not.

dfs
10-06-2011, 10:04 AM
Volquez, Francisco & Stubbs to the Mets
David Wright & enough cash to make the deal respectable to the Reds

.....Why would the mets do this?

Don't they have to try and sell season tickets too?

Here take 3 players I don't want and give me your perennial all star for them.

I want the most valuable thing in your organization and I'll give you a get out of jail free card. Oh, yeah and then you can ADD cash to the deal?

If I'm the Mets, I laugh at that and say....How about Wright for Votto straight up.


Alonso, Grandal, Masset & Frazier to the Rays
Shields to the Reds

Do the Rays even have that many open slots on their 40 man roster? ....
Cause the Rays really need a firstbaseman?
What are the rays going to do with Todd Frazier or Nick Masset? They don't have holes to plug those guys into.



Rolen & cash to the Cubs for Campana (who promptly gets sent to Louisville)

Well, they might do that simply because they're the Cubs.

When I answered these questions I went with "stay the course" or "bring in a free agent" simply because I have no idea what players will bring in a trade. I don't think any team "wins" a trade by focusing on who they want to give up. I think you go after the player (or type of player that you want) and you weigh what the other team wants in the balance. If you get to spring training and you still have Drew Stubbs or Edinson Volquez....and you don't have a slot for them, that's when you look to either dump them or cut them. I don't think you can make a reasonable trade by planning on giving your trash for their gold.

klw
10-06-2011, 10:50 AM
How about Arroyo and Francisco/Frazier to Boston for Lackey and Will Middlebrooks?
Ton of money going every which way but a possible long term answer at 3rd for the Reds.
Here's some info on Middlebrooks
http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/14790/a-look-at-sox-prospects-playing-fall-ball

RedsManRick
10-06-2011, 11:32 AM
How about Arroyo and Francisco/Frazier to Boston for Lackey and Will Middlebrooks?
Ton of money going every which way but a possible long term answer at 3rd for the Reds.
Here's some info on Middlebrooks
http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/14790/a-look-at-sox-prospects-playing-fall-ball

I'd pass on that. Middlebrooks has all sorts of plate discipline issues and with Lackey you're getting a different version of Arroyo who has an even worse contract (more money, more years) and is rumored to be a bit of a head case who has alienated teammates through on-field antics.

lollipopcurve
10-06-2011, 11:49 AM
Stay as far away from Lackey as possible. The guy looked as miserable as I've ever seen a baseball player look, and it lasted all year.

Mario-Rijo
10-06-2011, 03:03 PM
.....Why would the mets do this?

Don't they have to try and sell season tickets too?

Here take 3 players I don't want and give me your perennial all star for them.

I want the most valuable thing in your organization and I'll give you a get out of jail free card. Oh, yeah and then you can ADD cash to the deal?

If I'm the Mets, I laugh at that and say....How about Wright for Votto straight up.

Well let's see, their perennial AS...


Wilpon described him as a "really good kid. A very good player. Not a superstar."


So 3 guys who "we don't want" who all have a high ceiling for a "very good player" seems like a fair offer to me. Take away your bias against the players involved, look at the state of the Mets, look at the potential the 3 hold and then consider this, If just one of those 3 turns out it's a win for the Mets. They get a younger position player at either the same position or a more important one who both can be electric. Or they get a potential Cy Young candidate. Personally I think what they would get is a legit Cy Young candidate (and in a pitchers park) a CF who is as close to success as he is to failure and a potential big LH power bat who plays the same position as the guy your dealing. It doesn't matter if I am not a big believer in Francisco, it doesn't matter that many of RZ's don't believe in Stubbs or Volquez, it only takes one to believe it's worth the risk, we've seen that a thousand times before with other transactions. One team can see how these guys careers are going to go, one cannot. Besides they ain't going nowhere with Wright and Reyes alone anyhow.



Do the Rays even have that many open slots on their 40 man roster? ....
Cause the Rays really need a firstbaseman?
What are the rays going to do with Todd Frazier or Nick Masset? They don't have holes to plug those guys into.

Well when they deal Shields & Upton in the offseason there is 2, so yeah I doubt that will have much of an impact on the deal. Yeah they need a young LH potential middle of the order bat playing 1st base. Yes they could use Masset (though they may prefer someone like Boxberger or Joseph). Todd Frazier is a guy who fits the mold of that team. He's young, competitive and versatile and they could use another guy who can possibly play LF and give them some power (something small market teams need to get on the cheap). Yeah they will have holes to plug these guys into.


Well, they might do that simply because they're the Cubs.

When I answered these questions I went with "stay the course" or "bring in a free agent" simply because I have no idea what players will bring in a trade. I don't think any team "wins" a trade by focusing on who they want to give up. I think you go after the player (or type of player that you want) and you weigh what the other team wants in the balance. If you get to spring training and you still have Drew Stubbs or Edinson Volquez....and you don't have a slot for them, that's when you look to either dump them or cut them. I don't think you can make a reasonable trade by planning on giving your trash for their gold.

Trash? How many guys have got that change of scenery and really made the most of it, filling their potential (Carlos Pena to the Rays once upon a time for example) or at times occasionally surpassing it (J. Bautista). Call them what you want but don't expect everyone to fall in line I prefer to use a little vision.

PuffyPig
10-06-2011, 05:13 PM
.....Why would the mets do this?

Don't they have to try and sell season tickets too?

Here take 3 players I don't want and give me your perennial all star for them.

I want the most valuable thing in your organization and I'll give you a get out of jail free card. Oh, yeah and then you can ADD cash to the deal?

If I'm the Mets, I laugh at that and say....How about Wright for Votto straight up.





Wright has two years left on his contract, and is owed $31M. His last 3 years have been decent, but not great, and last year was the worse of his career. His trade value is not close to Votto's.

Volquez, Stubbs and Francisco have some decent trade value, especially as a package.

Wright is no longer gold, and this package is not garbage.

lollipopcurve
10-06-2011, 10:10 PM
I believe if Wright is traded, the option for 2013 is voided (or becomes a player option). The Reds would be getting him for 1 year. Pass.

Scrap Irony
10-06-2011, 10:19 PM
For Wright, the Reds would probably have to offer two or three pitchers (Wood, Volquez, and Bailey or Leake), Francisco, and Stubbs. And might also have to add prospects like Torreyes, Hamilton, or Soto to get it done.

Personally, I'd do that, but the cost-- in terms of cash and players-- would be high.

_Sir_Charles_
10-07-2011, 11:10 AM
For Wright, the Reds would probably have to offer two or three pitchers (Wood, Volquez, and Bailey or Leake), Francisco, and Stubbs. And might also have to add prospects like Torreyes, Hamilton, or Soto to get it done.

Personally, I'd do that, but the cost-- in terms of cash and players-- would be high.

For 1 year of Wright?!? You can't be serious?

lollipopcurve
10-07-2011, 01:05 PM
For Wright, the Reds would probably have to offer two or three pitchers (Wood, Volquez, and Bailey or Leake), Francisco, and Stubbs. And might also have to add prospects like Torreyes, Hamilton, or Soto to get it done.

Personally, I'd do that, but the cost-- in terms of cash and players-- would be high.

For a year of David Wright this would likely be the worst trade in the history of the franchise.

RedsManRick
10-07-2011, 01:16 PM
I know he's injury prone, but Scott Rolen still exists and will be our starting 3B in 2012. He's 1 year removed from a season in which he hit .285/.358/.497, played GG defense was the 5th most productive 3B in baseball (Outproducing Wright by a full win). Unless you plan on trading Rolen (which isn't going to happen), acquiring a 3B, especially for just 2012, is just silly.

I love the idea of the 7 win David Wright at 3B for the Reds. But he's been a consistently poor defender for 3 years and his strikeouts have jumped considerably since that time. The power drop is only partly explained by Citi Field. Trade a very nice package of talent for 1 year of a guy who is expensive and not likely to be much, if any, better than what we have?

I'm all for trading prospects in the right deal. But we need to move the needle, not just change the names.