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TRF
10-04-2011, 05:47 PM
Center Field defensively was a plus. Stubbs, Heisey, Sappelt. All three were good. Offensively? Stubbs was a huge letdown from his 2010 season. Now I have not been his biggest fan, originally because of who I thought the Reds should have taken (and that wasn't hindsight) then because the Reds had/have NO IDEA of how to properly develop him. But 2010 had me thinking he could be Matt Kemp or close to it. 2011 brought us a near 100 point drop in OPS, his power vanished. He was almost the same as 2010 in runs scored, so the wheels obviously are fine, but his HR and doubles power just dried up.

Meanwhile, Heisey, flat outplayed him in half the AB's. Outproduced him in fact. Should their roles be reversed? Should one of them be traded?

You are the GM. Address the Center Field situation. You can stand pat, fill from within the system, sign a free agent or acquire a CF rumored to be available.

marcshoe
10-04-2011, 05:48 PM
Put Heisey in center. Try to get value for Stubbs; if not, keep him as the fourth outfielder.

RedsManRick
10-04-2011, 05:59 PM
I want to believe in Stubbs. That's not to say I think he's a stud, but I think he's still got the highest ceiling of the options we've got. The contact issues are definitely worrisome, but I still think his biggest problem is in his head. He can't seem to decide from one PA to the next whether he's going to be patient, aggressive or what. Bottom line, if he doesn't make some more contact, seasons like 2011 are going to be the regular for him. Given that he can take a walk and has some pop, more than he showed in 2011, I continue to start him.

That said, if somebody is willing to give good value for him -- say the Astro's as part of a Wandy Rodriguez trade -- I wouldn't hesitate to deal him. Heisey has contact issues himself and isnt' exactly a threat to find first base, but's he got power and can handle CF. With Sappelt around as well, that's two viable options.

If I'm trading Alonso (and I'm trying), I'm probably hanging on to Stubbs. But I could be convinced either way.

Strikes Out Looking
10-04-2011, 07:34 PM
Platoon Sappelt and Heisey, trade Stubbs.

Will M
10-04-2011, 07:36 PM
Stubbs should only play vs lhp.

I am not sure what to make of Heisey. his splits are reversed & he has played better off the bench than as a starter. If we pencilled in an odd sort of Heisey/Stubbs or Heisey/Sappelt platoon would Heisey fall flat?

I'd be fine with Sappelt as long as we had a lefty hitting centerfielder who could split time with him. Basically have competition for the job with the loser being the 4th outfielder. I wouldn't want to hand the CF job to a rookie without some sort of a fallback plan.

I have twice read that Angel Pagan may be nontendered by the Mets. He is a switch hitter who hits righties better than lefties. If he gets non tendered I'd be interested in the Reds obtaining him.

So...
Heisey/Stubbs
Heisey/Sappelt
Pagan/Stubbs
Pagan/Sappelt

For me it depends on what we can get via trade. If Stubbs or Heisey could, as part of a deal, improve the rotation then do it. Or if either one could net us a solid reliever then that would be fine as well.

1) Stubbs, Volquez & Masset for Wandy
2) Heisey for an 8th inning arm
3) add Pagan
4) add Betancourt

mth123
10-04-2011, 08:01 PM
Stubbs would be my number one trade chip to try and get a pitcher. He probably won't draw the interest on his own and will need to be packaged with some one else as the primary player. The guy is just clueless offensively. His contact problems are really plate dscipline/pitch recognition issues. He consitently lets fat ones go by early in the count, falls behind and then is forced to swing at stuff that he would be taking if the count was more favorable. He frequently misses or makes poor contact as a result of the stuff he's swinging at. I'm not optimistic that guys his age will ever improve at this. I see him going down the Corey Patterson downward career spiral. A couple of promising years early followed by progressively worse production as the league figures out how easy it is to pitch to him.

Defensively, the guy is fast, smooth and pleasing to watch, but, IMO, he has trouble going back on the ball, plays a little too deep to compensate for it and the result is that he really doesn't take away the number of those dinkers that fall in for hits that a great CF should. He's fine defensively, but he really isn't anything all that special when it comes to turning batted balls into outs. If its not too late to cash him in, it will be after another season when he'll be a year older and arb eligible. If you think we'd be selling low now, wait a year and you won't be able to get much at all IMO.

Sappelt would be the guy I'd give every opportunity to. I prefer Heisey as a 4th OF and a pretty decent insurance policy should Sappelt need more time in AAA.
As others mentioned, if Stubbs sticks on the team, I only start him against lefty pitchers.

This is another position that I wouldn't put much resources toward unless the guy acquired could be a middle of the order bat and to get that in CF, I'm guessing it would cost too much in both talent and money.

lollipopcurve
10-04-2011, 09:18 PM
Competition between Heisey and Sappelt, Phipps in the wings. Deal Stubbs.

Scrap Irony
10-04-2011, 09:21 PM
Competition between Heisey and Sappelt, Phipps in the wings. Deal Stubbs.

yes.

reds44
10-04-2011, 09:26 PM
Trade Stubbs, have Heisey in CF.

dfs
10-04-2011, 11:56 PM
I'll go against the grain. Hold onto Stubbs. Reduce some of his playing time in smaller parks vs RHP. I can live with that arrangement and make my changes elsewhere.

Of course, if the right deal comes along and somebody wants Stubbs I don't hesitate to pull the trigger.

lollipopcurve
10-05-2011, 09:10 AM
Of course, if the right deal comes along and somebody wants Stubbs I don't hesitate to pull the trigger.

No one's advocating just dumping him. The assumption is that he carries value (alone or in a package).

IslandRed
10-05-2011, 10:48 AM
If I'm trading Alonso (and I'm trying), I'm probably hanging on to Stubbs. But I could be convinced either way.

I kind of take the opposite look at it -- if Alonso isn't traded, he's probably going to play left field. And if Alonso's in left, I really want Stubbs in center. I'll grant what mth said elsewhere in the thread about him not being great forward and backward, but he's awesome getting to the gaps, and if Alonso's in left we need that gap coverage.

Of course, there's what we want and there's what we can have. If Stubbs is a key part to a deal for a pitcher, then so be it.

I don't really like either Heisey or Sappelt in center full-time. By the standards of major-league center fielders, Heisey is nothing special. Good arm, meh range. Sappelt is the opposite -- range, but lousy arm. Stubbs has both.

But there's no question Stubbs' regression at the plate has to be dealt with. He'll always have contact issues but they can't afford to get any worse.

Scrap Irony
10-05-2011, 11:07 AM
I don't really like either Heisey or Sappelt in center full-time. By the standards of major-league center fielders, Heisey is nothing special. Good arm, meh range. Sappelt is the opposite -- range, but lousy arm. Stubbs has both.

Heisey actually grades out only a sliver behind Stubbs as an OF according to WAR. (4.5 to 4.6 for their careers)

He may not look as smooth, but Heisey does just as well, according to the numbers.

Sappelt has too few innings to judge either way.

RANDY IN INDY
10-05-2011, 11:23 AM
I'm not in favor of trading Stubbs unless an absolutely great deal presents itself. Don't like Heisey full time in center and I'm truly not sold that Sappelt is going to be anything more than a fourth or fifth outfielder.

TRF
10-05-2011, 12:07 PM
whether it is random, luck, the baseball gods, whatever, Heisey's career numbers by position...


By Position AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
As LF 183 24 37 7 1 6 16 15 3 52 2 1 .202 .271 .350 .621
As CF 123 26 41 3 0 11 23 10 4 32 3 1 .333 .396 .626 1.022
As RF 117 14 25 8 0 3 14 5 3 34 2 1 .214 .264 .359 .623
All PH 57 12 19 1 1 6 18 5 1 17 0 0 .333 .385 .702 1.087

remdog
10-05-2011, 12:14 PM
There a couple of major concerns for me regarding Stubbs:

--He just doesn't show any ability to put the bat on the ball. Period. As MTH said, no pitch recognition and no plan when he's at bat. His power went away as well.

--I agree that he's OK side to side but I never liked the way he went back to the fence on balls near there. Honestly, to me, he looks very tenative.

If I got a decent offer for him I'd deal him in a heartbeat.

Rem

RedsManRick
10-05-2011, 12:40 PM
There a couple of major concerns for me regarding Stubbs:

--He just doesn't show any ability to put the bat on the ball. Period. As MTH said, no pitch recognition and no plan when he's at bat. His power went away as well.

--I agree that he's OK side to side but I never liked the way he went back to the fence on balls near there. Honestly, to me, he looks very tenative.

If I got a decent offer for him I'd deal him in a heartbeat.

Rem

No pitch recognition? How has he walked over 9% of the time? League average is 8.1%.

I think what you're seeing is an issue where his approach is tied up in knots combined with his contact issues. It sounds like nitpicking, but I think it matters because of what it implies about what's possible. To my eye, he's conflicted about being aggressive early on balls in the zone, per Dusty's standard approach, and with his learned personal approach of waiting for a pitch he's more naturally comfortable with (a definition that's smaller for him than for most hitters).

It's essentially the same dynamic we saw play out with Dunn as he was encouraged to swing more. His strikeouts didn't drop, his contact rate didn't drop, but his power did. I think with these extreme low-contact types, conventional wisdom with approach just doesn't hold. Unlike most hitters who can make reliable contact on most strikes, these guys tend to have a smaller good-contact zone -- and they internalize that. So what looks like a perfectly good pitch to most of us, may not to them.

They become successful precisely because they DO have good pitch recognition. If they didn't have good pitch recognition, they would have been eaten alive in the upper minors. But because guys like this who live on the edge are able to distinguish between what they can hit and what they can't, they are able to avoid swinging at pitches that they can't hit well and are able to maximize the value of the balls they can hit (Dunn because of massive power, Stubbs because of good power and great speed).

I think we can safely assume that Stubbs is already swinging at pitches he feels like he can drive. An increase in aggression is going to come on balls that he previously would have considered borderline. So you end up trading taken balls and strikes for more swinging strikes and weakly hit balls in play. The more contact oriented swing results in more swings at balls they are likely to miss normally, but with a less powerful swing that ups contact rate some. So contact rate balances out, but power drops.

Anyways, that's my extremely amateur hitting coach perspective, but it seems to explain what we see happen to guys like this. Sure, it would be great if he could make more contact to make better use of his speed while continuing to hit for power, but if he could do that -- he probably would already be doing that. My solution would be to let Stubbs go back to doing what comes naturally to him and to simply accept that it will result is a low batting average and a lot strikeouts, but to just have him mix some bunt-for-hit attempts in when the situation calls for it.

757690
10-05-2011, 01:09 PM
There's a difference between pitch recognition and having a good batting eye. The former involves distinguishing fastballs from off-speed pitches. The latter involves distinguishing strikes from balls.

You can have poor pitch recognition and a decent walk rate.

I've seen Stubbs watch fastballs down the middle go by and swing at off-speed pitches low and away enough times to conclude that he has poor pitch recognition.

dfs
10-05-2011, 01:16 PM
No one's advocating just dumping him. The assumption is that he carries value (alone or in a package).

I don't know. I'm not pointing fingers, but it seems like there are folks here who take the attitude about trades that we'll take the players we don't like (Stubbs, Francisco, Volquez and Bailey) and that other teams won't see the problems and will trade spun gold for them.

I was trying to distinguish that as a GM I would not be looking to trade Stubbs, but that I would certainly be willing to listen to offers. Perhaps I'm just splitting hairs.

RedsManRick
10-05-2011, 01:36 PM
There's a difference between pitch recognition and having a good batting eye. The former involves distinguishing fastballs from off-speed pitches. The latter involves distinguishing strikes from balls.

You can have poor pitch recognition and a decent walk rate.

I've seen Stubbs watch fastballs down the middle go by and swing at off-speed pitches low and away enough times to conclude that he has poor pitch recognition.

Fair point - I was conflating the two. It definitely seems that he struggled with sliders this year. Not being able to distinguish them from fastballs would be a problem...

Interestingly, while he really struggled against sliders this year, that's where he did his most damage -- by far -- last year. He was 3rd in baseball in Fangraphs' Pitch Value stat against sliders last year. I wonder if that matches up with observation. It doesn't look like pitchers' changed their pitch variety against him much.

defender
10-05-2011, 01:38 PM
I like Stubbs. However, he is a player with trade value, for whom the Reds have viable replacements. I'd like to see the Reds get Matt Kemp, and I think Stubbs would be a likely candidate to be a part of that trade.

If the reds are not getting a big outfield bat and are just going to put Alonso in left, I would rather keep Stubbs in center. I don't want him traded for a mediocre prospect/middle reliever.

Reds/Flyers Fan
10-05-2011, 02:03 PM
Trade Stubbs, have Heisey in CF.

:beerme:

Please Walt, listen to this advice. I've seen all I care to of Drew Stubbs. His defensive speed is nice, but his offensive is just killer. It completely derails innings.

Kc61
10-05-2011, 02:11 PM
I like Stubbs. However, he is a player with trade value, for whom the Reds have viable replacements. I'd like to see the Reds get Matt Kemp, and I think Stubbs would be a likely candidate to be a part of that trade.

If the reds are not getting a big outfield bat and are just going to put Alonso in left, I would rather keep Stubbs in center. I don't want him traded for a mediocre prospect/middle reliever.

I don't see Stubbs' big trade value right now. Yes, Stubbs has talent, but the guy just led the major leagues in striking out and he OPS'd .686. He slugged only .364 (down from .444) and overall he had a severe sophomore slump.

This is probably the worst possible time to trade Stubbs. Oh, I'm sure some teams would take him for little return, but the Reds aren't getting much back for him after last season's debacle.

He'd probably be a secondary piece in a trade requiring the Reds to trade a more significant name.

Obviously, you trade anyone for the right price, but I wouldn't be shopping Drew Stubbs. I think he was totaly fouled up this year and will do better going forward. (He can't do too much worse.) And with Stubbs and Heisey, and some would say Sappelt, the Reds have a decent plan for CF. You can't replace everyone at every position, some positions stay the same.

I wouldn't mess around with CF in the off-season. If Stubbs continues this hitting next year, I'd switch to Heisey and then Sappelt. I'd concentrate on LF and pitching in the trade/FA mart.

osuceltic
10-05-2011, 02:20 PM
Fair point - I was conflating the two. It definitely seems that he struggled with sliders this year. Not being able to distinguish them from fastballs would be a problem...

Interestingly, while he really struggled against sliders this year, that's where he did his most damage -- by far -- last year. He was 3rd in baseball in Fangraphs' Pitch Value stat against sliders last year. I wonder if that matches up with observation. It doesn't look like pitchers' changed their pitch variety against him much.

Probably feasted on hanging sliders, which isn't surprising since I consider him primarily a mistake hitter. You miss a few of those that you crushed a year ago and your numbers could take a dive.

lollipopcurve
10-05-2011, 03:23 PM
If Stubbs continues this hitting next year, I'd switch to Heisey and then Sappelt.

If Stubbs continues this hitting next year..... his value sinks even more. After 1 promising year and a slight (but not massive) regression, I think Stubbs still carries plenty of value. Cash it in now, I say. That's what having depth at the big league level does for you. Sitting on it almost inevitably leads to an asset either gaining value to the point you don't want to deal it, or losing value to the point you can't get much back. Stubbs could still be a big piece in a package that brings back significant talent, IMO.

Kc61
10-05-2011, 03:46 PM
If Stubbs continues this hitting next year..... his value sinks even more. After 1 promising year and a slight (but not massive) regression, I think Stubbs still carries plenty of value. Cash it in now, I say. That's what having depth at the big league level does for you. Sitting on it almost inevitably leads to an asset either gaining value to the point you don't want to deal it, or losing value to the point you can't get much back. Stubbs could still be a big piece in a package that brings back significant talent, IMO.

Slight (but not massive) regression?

I wish it were so.

Drew Stubbs is now known around baseball for one thing -- striking out.

I'm not one to sit on baseball assets, I've preached for years that the Reds should be more active. But sometimes you have to risk that a player will come back and make himself more valuable.

Stubbs also had bad minor league seasons and eventually broke through. He showed a lot of power as a rookie which probably will surface again at some point.

I think the Reds will likely get very little for Stubbs right now. At best, he's a secondary piece in a trade of some other player. Nobody wants to give up value for a 200 strikeout hitter who slugs below .400 and OPSs below .700.

lollipopcurve
10-05-2011, 04:23 PM
Nobody wants to give up value for a 200 strikeout hitter who slugs below .400 and OPSs below .700.

Don't leave out the defense (though I am not a big fan of Stubbs' play in the OF, I think he's got a good reputation) and the speed on the bases. That stuff plays these days.

IslandRed
10-05-2011, 04:29 PM
Regarding the pitch recognition versus plate discipline -- it's got to be something. If you go to FanGraphs and look at his raw percentages -- how often he swings in and out of the zone, how often he makes contact, etc. -- and compare them to the percentages of, say, Jay Bruce and Joey Votto, it's difficult to decipher why he's striking out so dadgum much more than they are.

About all I have is a somewhat elevated strikes-out-looking rate -- he took the backwards K approximately 65 times this year (32% of his Ks, compared to 25% league average). 65 is a lot, probably the most in MLB by a wide margin, although I haven't looked it up. My amateur analysis is that this indicates "see the ball, hit the ball" isn't his thing. He goes up there guessing and if he gets something else he can't pull the trigger. That goes with a purely anecdotal observation of an at-bat against Shawn Marcum, a guy who normally throws junk. Marcum threw three straight fastballs down the pike and Stubbs never took the bat off his shoulder.

Or I could be completely wrong. It happens.

Kc61
10-05-2011, 05:07 PM
Don't leave out the defense (though I am not a big fan of Stubbs' play in the OF, I think he's got a good reputation) and the speed on the bases. That stuff plays these days.

Maybe it's just me, but watching baseball this year, including the playoffs, I see a lot of fast guys who play good centerfield and make athletic plays. Not that uncommon.

If he doesn't hit, I just don't think Stubbs' defense makes him that special.

I don't know, when these players (Dunn, Reynolds) strike out so much, that seems to become their by-line. I just wonder how many clubs would look past the strikeouts and see a high potential prospect who deserves a meaningful trade return in Stubbs.

If I were the GM -- and that's the title of the thread -- my instinct would be to give Drew another try next year. He has a lot of physical ability and batting power. I guess it's an instinct that he could be a lot better than his current trade value.

It's a guess, like most things in baseball . . . .

REDREAD
10-05-2011, 05:39 PM
I'd give Stubbs another chance too.
Mike Cameron had a horrible sophomore slump, which made him trade bait.
Of coruse, that doesn't really prove anything :), but I am super hestitant to part
with a guy with Stubb's tools after a down year, especially because I have little faith Heisey or Sappelt could even handle the job fulltime. Even though it was a small sample size, Sappelt looked awful.

Stubbs is not an All star CF, but I am really hestitant to trade him without getting something better in return. I don't want to go back to the days of having guys like Patterson patrolling CF.

_Sir_Charles_
10-05-2011, 07:16 PM
I'd give Stubbs another chance too.
Mike Cameron had a horrible sophomore slump, which made him trade bait.
Of coruse, that doesn't really prove anything :), but I am super hestitant to part
with a guy with Stubb's tools after a down year, especially because I have little faith Heisey or Sappelt could even handle the job fulltime. Even though it was a small sample size, Sappelt looked awful.

Stubbs is not an All star CF, but I am really hestitant to trade him without getting something better in return. I don't want to go back to the days of having guys like Patterson patrolling CF.

This. I think he had a poor year. The hitters equivalent to Masset this year. They've both got tremendous tools and tremendous upside...I'm not ditching either because of a poor season.

Personally, I'd sit both of them down for about a week or two and have them watch video to pick apart any differences between their good, productive approach and what we saw this year. But the coaching staff HAS to step up and work with them.

mth123
10-05-2011, 07:23 PM
I'd give Stubbs another chance too.
Mike Cameron had a horrible sophomore slump, which made him trade bait.
Of coruse, that doesn't really prove anything :), but I am super hestitant to part
with a guy with Stubb's tools after a down year, especially because I have little faith Heisey or Sappelt could even handle the job fulltime. Even though it was a small sample size, Sappelt looked awful.

Stubbs is not an All star CF, but I am really hestitant to trade him without getting something better in return. I don't want to go back to the days of having guys like Patterson patrolling CF.

Stubbs is quickly becoming a guy just like Patterson. Doesn't have a clue when to swing and when not to. Pitchers have him figured out and his early success is over IMO. Its not like he ever really was a good hitter in the minors. He's not 22 or 23. I think what you see is all you're going to get. I like Sappelt, but I know he's a question mark. I think Heisey is a fourth Outfielder on a good team. But I'm not convinced Stubbs is better and don't see any type of a drop by moving him. After 2012, he's arb eligible. His value just isn't going to go up IMO.

Mario-Rijo
10-06-2011, 01:54 AM
Stubbs is quickly becoming a guy just like Patterson. Doesn't have a clue when to swing and when not to. Pitchers have him figured out and his early success is over IMO. Its not like he ever really was a good hitter in the minors. He's not 22 or 23. I think what you see is all you're going to get. I like Sappelt, but I know he's a question mark. I think Heisey is a fourth Outfielder on a good team. But I'm not convinced Stubbs is better and don't see any type of a drop by moving him. After 2012, he's arb eligible. His value just isn't going to go up IMO.

While you make some good points Mth I disagree with your comparison to Patterson. Patterson stunk because he was too aggressive, he swung at virtually everything and therefore almost never got a pitch in the zone after the word was out. Therefore he was usually swinging at pitchers pitches, i.e. pitches that with poor bat control (another issue) will lead to outs a vast majority of the team. However Patterson never K'd at the rate of Stubbs either. Stubbs has a variety of issues, but instead of getting into all of what ails him let's look at what he brings to the field.

Blazing speed, above average raw power, the ability to take a walk and despite his issues with going back on balls he is still an above average defender. And if you are gonna have contact issues it helps to have any of these things going for you and if you have all 4 then you have a real shot at being an above average player. Drew was awful this year but I believe he *can* rebound a bit next year and a bit can go a long way towards his value. If I could deal him as a piece in the right deal I would do it but teams are gonna have to recognize his potential to some extent to offer the proper value to get him in a deal. Otherwise you keep him and take the chance he can rebound to a higher level and then make the decision. I think he can improve his value if he's willing to work in the offseason understanding what the opposition is doing to him (playing him against himself).

mth123
10-06-2011, 05:08 AM
While you make some good points Mth I disagree with your comparison to Patterson. Patterson stunk because he was too aggressive, he swung at virtually everything and therefore almost never got a pitch in the zone after the word was out. Therefore he was usually swinging at pitchers pitches, i.e. pitches that with poor bat control (another issue) will lead to outs a vast majority of the team. However Patterson never K'd at the rate of Stubbs either. Stubbs has a variety of issues, but instead of getting into all of what ails him let's look at what he brings to the field.

Blazing speed, above average raw power, the ability to take a walk and despite his issues with going back on balls he is still an above average defender. And if you are gonna have contact issues it helps to have any of these things going for you and if you have all 4 then you have a real shot at being an above average player. Drew was awful this year but I believe he *can* rebound a bit next year and a bit can go a long way towards his value. If I could deal him as a piece in the right deal I would do it but teams are gonna have to recognize his potential to some extent to offer the proper value to get him in a deal. Otherwise you keep him and take the chance he can rebound to a higher level and then make the decision. I think he can improve his value if he's willing to work in the offseason understanding what the opposition is doing to him (playing him against himself).

Corey Patterson:

Blazing Speed? Check
Above Average Power? Check
Above Average Defense? Check
1st Round Pick with Tools? Check (3rd overall the year he was drafted)
Clueless when it comes to knowing when to swing and when to take? Check

The main difference that I see is that Patterson swings at everything and Stubbs doesn't swing until he has to. Stubbs approach allows him to stumble into a few walks while leading him to more bad counts, more K's and the same overall result of swinging at the pitch the pitcher wants him to swing at. 27 is pretty old to be making a change in this habit. I expect a career path very similar to Patterson's. Again, its not like Stubbs was ever a really good hitter in the minors who busted onto the scene. He was a .765 OPS guy in the minors (while getting about 1000 PAs against guys he should have already been more advanced than on the day he was drafted as a major college guy) and more advanced guys started to figure him out in AAA when his OPS was .713. He'll still get some walks, run into double digit HR's and be pretty good on the bases, but he'll make a lot of outs. He can have a nice career as a bottom of the order guy who plays a pretty decent CF, and may be able to carve out a niche against LHP since the breaking ball that he's chasing with 2 strikes won't be breaking away from him like it does with a RHP, but good teams will probably want more. I want the Reds to be a good team who wants more and I hope that enough teams still see the same potential we all see and give up something decent for him. I wouldn't give him away, but I don't see him having more value a year from now when he's arb eligible and has one less year of control than he does now.

Mario-Rijo
10-06-2011, 06:36 AM
Corey Patterson:

Blazing Speed? Check
Above Average Power? Check
Above Average Defense? Check
1st Round Pick with Tools? Check (3rd overall the year he was drafted)
Clueless when it comes to knowing when to swing and when to take? Check

The main difference that I see is that Patterson swings at everything and Stubbs doesn't swing until he has to. Stubbs approach allows him to stumble into a few walks while leading him to more bad counts, more K's and the same overall result of swinging at the pitch the pitcher wants him to swing at. 27 is pretty old to be making a change in this habit. I expect a career path very similar to Patterson's. Again, its not like Stubbs was ever a really good hitter in the minors who busted onto the scene. He was a .765 OPS guy in the minors (while getting about 1000 PAs against guys he should have already been more advanced than on the day he was drafted as a major college guy) and more advanced guys started to figure him out in AAA when his OPS was .713. He'll still get some walks, run into double digit HR's and be pretty good on the bases, but he'll make a lot of outs. He can have a nice career as a bottom of the order guy who plays a pretty decent CF, and may be able to carve out a niche against LHP since the breaking ball that he's chasing with 2 strikes won't be breaking away from him like it does with a RHP, but good teams will probably want more. I want the Reds to be a good team who wants more and I hope that enough teams still see the same potential we all see and give up something decent for him. I wouldn't give him away, but I don't see him having more value a year from now when he's arb eligible and has one less year of control than he does now.

I see what you are driving at and I think we agree not to expect him to ever reach his potential (unless he changes alot) but we just disagree when to cut bait and though I see where you are coming from I guess I believe it's possible and possibly even likely that his value is a bit higher at this point next year. Though I do have enough pause about that to consider dealing him now but IMO the other team has to be itching to get him for me to deal him, if not what we get in return won't be worth the risk. I keep him unless a team pays for the potential or at least a tick or 2 above where he sits today. Just think about how bad his contact issues are at one stretch towards the end he had a .318 BABIP and his BA during that span was .208 with a little over .500 OPS. If he can find a way to cut down those K's just a couple a week he will raise his value quite a bit. He can probably do that just by getting his bunting down much better. And if he did that it'd probably change alot of things for him and his value.

I would trade him in the (W)right deal but I wouldn't give up completely on him just yet.

lollipopcurve
10-06-2011, 08:30 AM
Even though I am an advocate of trying to find a good deal for Stubbs, I do think it's possible he was screwed up this year because Dusty insisted on him being the leadoff guy, following a 2010 season in which Stubbs showed a sharp increase in productivity when moved down in the lineup.

At this point, if Dusty is convinced Stubbs should have the CF job, he must have learned that the guy needs to be moved to about 6th/7th in the lineup and left there, right? IMO, to keep trying to hit Stubbs 1st -- or 2nd -- would be mismanaging of the first order.

oneupper
10-06-2011, 08:34 AM
Stubbs is all hope at this point. When I have certain stocks that all I have is "hope" that they will rebound, it's usually better to sell them and try something else, even if I take a loss.
Let someone else hope with Stubbs.

dfs
10-06-2011, 09:45 AM
Stubbs is all hope at this point. When I have certain stocks that all I have is "hope" that they will rebound, it's usually better to sell them and try something else, even if I take a loss.
Let someone else hope with Stubbs.

....I understand the analogy, but some bodies have to cover 162 games in centerfield for the reds next year. Is there anybody in the reds system that I feel confident will do a better job at than Drew Stubbs?

not really. As exposed as Stubbs swing has been, Heisey's production nosedives when he plays a more. As encouraging as Dave Sappelt's minor league career has been, he looked terrible in the major leagues.

As a GM, I would not be ready to trade Stubbs (just to get rid of him) w/out a better plan in center.

REDREAD
10-06-2011, 09:48 AM
Stubbs is quickly becoming a guy just like Patterson. Doesn't have a clue when to swing and when not to. Pitchers have him figured out and his early success is over IMO. Its not like he ever really was a good hitter in the minors. He's not 22 or 23. I think what you see is all you're going to get. I like Sappelt, but I know he's a question mark. I think Heisey is a fourth Outfielder on a good team. But I'm not convinced Stubbs is better and don't see any type of a drop by moving him. After 2012, he's arb eligible. His value just isn't going to go up IMO.

IMO, this is precisely why you give him another chance.
If everyone percieves Stubbs as you do, he already has no trade value, so why not give him another chance? As you said, it's not as if Heisey or Sappelt are great options either.
I really don't care about his arb status. Either he will have a good year in 2012 and earn a higher salary, or he'll bomb in 2012 and be cheap or cut loose. Either scenerio doesn't justify running him out of town right now.

Of the 3 CF candidates, Stubbs has the most upside. Sure, the pitchers adjusted to him this year. There's no guarantee that Stubbs will able to make his own adjustment, but it's worth another audtion.

lollipopcurve
10-06-2011, 09:50 AM
As exposed as Stubbs swing has been, Heisey's production nosedives when he plays a more. As encouraging as Dave Sappelt's minor league career has been, he looked terrible in the major leagues.

Disagree on both fronts. Heisey has never had regular ABs in one spot. Until he gets that kind of opportunity, you can't say that he gets worse with more playing time. Sappelt looked fine -- made a lot of solid contact, though without real good results. Played good -- sometimes great -- defense. Ran the bases fine. Again, this is not a player you can judge until he gets more exposure.

And keep an eye on Denis Phipps next year. There is a chance he could become the best CF of any of them.

REDREAD
10-06-2011, 09:57 AM
As bad as Stubbs was last year, he still earned a 2.6 WAR.
That's down from his 4.0 last year, but that's still a pretty good player.
Patterson had a -1.2 WAR when he was a Red, despite Patterson's defensive prowess.

mace
10-06-2011, 10:07 AM
....I understand the analogy, but some bodies have to cover 162 games in centerfield for the reds next year. Is there anybody in the reds system that I feel confident will do a better job at than Drew Stubbs?

not really. As exposed as Stubbs swing has been, Heisey's production nosedives when he plays a more.

The perception that Heisey drops off as a starter might be a little overblown. This year, his OPS off the bench was .829, starting was .787. You might call that a negligible difference, given the small sample sizes. His BA was much higher off the bench, but his HR% was actually higher as a starter. I don't think anything definitive has been established along those lines. That said, I do think that, as a starter, he's a guy who might warrant about 40-50 days off against certain pitchers (off-speed guys, mostly) whom he doesn't match up well against.

A platoon of him (against RH, which he seems to strongly prefer) and Stubbs could be ideal, in my view, in spite of both being RH hitters.

savafan
10-23-2011, 10:32 PM
I've been looking at guys, and thinking about this question for a couple weeks now, and I think if there was one guy I would target, and I don't know that he's available or what it would take to get him, but I would go hard after Shane Victorino in Philadelphia. Defensively, he's a stud, and his bat is consistent enough that I think he'd outshine Stubbs in the every day lineup easily. He's a free agent after next season, so that might make him a little easier for Philly to move (they'll have to free up payroll to keep their big 3 pitchers around, especially if they retain Rollins this offseason). I think he's making about $12 million a year, so there would have to be some work done to fit him into the budget. I'd start with Stubbs, who seems way more like a Philadelphia type player than a Cincinnati player, and also include a pitcher. Then there would have to be some other parts included.

Scrap Irony
10-24-2011, 09:01 AM
1) Philadelphia isn't likely to retain Rollins. (And what it would take to keep him is quite a bit less than what you're assuming.)
2) Philly has deep, deep pockets and doesn't need to shed any payroll.
3) Victorino just came off an All-Star season and the Phans adore him.
4) The Reds have three guys capable of playing CF already and would have to move at least two of them.

He's certainly a better option than Stubbs-- on that we can all agree. However, for these reasons, he won't be a Red in 2012.

CySeymour
10-24-2011, 09:37 AM
I'm fine with moving Stubbs if they can get something of value in return, but I don't want to deal him just to get rid of him. I don't really see Heisey being that much better given the same amount of playing time as Stubbs.

kaldaniels
10-24-2011, 10:29 AM
Unless a prime deal is out there, I ride it out with Stubbs in CF until he plays his way out of it.

Reds/Flyers Fan
10-24-2011, 11:18 AM
I've seen all I need to of Drew Stubbs. Deal him, preferably within the division so our pitchers get to face him 18 times a season. I'm like to see Heisey (barring a trade for another CF) get the bulk of playing time in CF in 2012, but he should bat lower in the order.

Vottomatic
10-24-2011, 03:11 PM
Put Heisey in center. Try to get value for Stubbs; if not, keep him as the fourth outfielder.

Bruce and Stubbs were given long leashes to either succeed or hang themselves with.

No matter what his splits say up to this point, including his pinch hitting vs. starter numbers, I'd like to see Heisey given CF to show us what he has got full time or to crash and burn.

I'm ready to trade Stubbs while he still has value.

Heisey has 35 HR potential. And if fans are happy with Jay Bruce hitting .260/30+ HR's, then why not see what Heisey can do given the same leash? His numbers project out to be about the same as Bruce's don't they?

Just my $.02 cents.

TRF
10-24-2011, 03:55 PM
Bruce and Stubbs were given long leashes to either succeed or hang themselves with.

No matter what his splits say up to this point, including his pinch hitting vs. starter numbers, I'd like to see Heisey given CF to show us what he has got full time or to crash and burn.

I'm ready to trade Stubbs while he still has value.

Heisey has 35 HR potential. And if fans are happy with Jay Bruce hitting .260/30+ HR's, then why not see what Heisey can do given the same leash? His numbers project out to be about the same as Bruce's don't they?

Just my $.02 cents.

His numbers project that, i'm not certain his talent does. Players get hot. they get lucky. The best athlete on the Reds is probably Stubbs, but the Reds have no idea how to properly utilize him (I'd bat him 7th) Heisey might be a beast, or he might have just had his career year. Hard to say. If Stubbs and prospects can get you a TOR then I'd be for moving him. Heisey will not fetch that TOR guy though.

Will M
10-24-2011, 06:22 PM
the Reds have a lot of low OPB bats in their lineup. Heisey has reverse splits and has a career OPB of 346 vs rhp. Sappelt should hit lhp better than rhp. if some combination of Heisey & Sappelt can be effective from the leadoff spot then it helps the lineup a lot. Mes/Hanigan can hit 7th and Cozart can hit 8th. if we go with Stubbs he'll hit 7th giving us another low OPB bat in the lineup and leaving us without decent OPB at the top of the lineup. if stubbs hits 7th i'd expect Cozart would hit 2nd. i'd prefer a lineup something like...

Heisey/Sappelt
Phillips
Votto
Bruce
Rolen/Francisco/etc
Alonso or if he is dealt then a solid bat for LF
Mes/Hanigan
Cozart