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View Full Version : what do you think the Reds WILL do this offseason?



Will M
10-07-2011, 08:57 PM
I have seen several threads about what people think the Reds should do this offseason. I looked but didn't find a thread about what people think the Reds will actually do. I am curious about others opinions. Mine is pretty pessimistic.

1) Brandon Phillips gets a 3 year deal. maybe $25-30M. if he won't sign a 3 year deal his 2012 option is picked up. either way he is at 2B next year
2) Cordero is signed to a 2 year $15M deal.
3) $2-3M is spent on an infielder that can play SS
4) the team signs a middle reliever to take Chapman's place in the pen. somebody cheap but not a dumpster dive move

Thats it. Essentially the 2011 team is brought back for 2012 with Mes replacing Ramon & Chapman replacing Volquez/Willis in the rotation.

Redhook
10-07-2011, 10:11 PM
I pretty much agree with your synopsis. Walt hasn't done anything yet and I don't expect him to start now.

I predict, in order:

1) Coco signs a 2 year deal for $12-15 mil
2) Phillips signs a Barry Larkinish 4 year deal worth $40 mil
3) Orlando Renteria signs to backup at SS
4) Heisey gets traded for a middling middle reliever
5) Chapman pitches 5 consecutive shutout innings in Winter Ball convincing Walt no other starters will be needed

MikeS21
10-07-2011, 11:07 PM
I think payroll will prevent any major deals.

BuckeyeRedleg
10-07-2011, 11:20 PM
I have seen several threads about what people think the Reds should do this offseason. I looked but didn't find a thread about what people think the Reds will actually do. I am curious about others opinions. Mine is pretty pessimistic.

1) Brandon Phillips gets a 3 year deal. maybe $25-30M. if he won't sign a 3 year deal his 2012 option is picked up. either way he is at 2B next year
2) Cordero is signed to a 2 year $15M deal.
3) $2-3M is spent on an infielder that can play SS
4) the team signs a middle reliever to take Chapman's place in the pen. somebody cheap but not a dumpster dive move

Thats it. Essentially the 2011 team is brought back for 2012 with Mes replacing Ramon & Chapman replacing Volquez/Willis in the rotation.

1. Meh, but not surprising (picking up option is enough).
2. Yuck, but not surprising.
3. Waste, but not surprising.
4. Meh as they have a decent arm ready on the farm (Boxberger) and Chapman is not ready for the the rotation anyway.

The Operator
10-07-2011, 11:42 PM
What do I think they'll do?


http://www.cepro.com/images/uploads/homer-asleep.jpg

BuckeyeRedleg
10-07-2011, 11:47 PM
What do I think they'll do?


http://www.cepro.com/images/uploads/homer-asleep.jpg

That was last year. This year, they'll try to over correct that and makes moves for the sake of making moves (3B, SS, BP extension) while they miss the obvious meltdown looming (lack of pitching/ace/stud TOR starter/shields).

WMR
10-08-2011, 01:32 AM
Put their fans into a collective coma.

mth123
10-08-2011, 03:06 AM
I think payroll will prevent any major deals.

If the Reds don't screw it up by giving big money to Cordero and some over the hill SS, they should have around $15 Million to spend.

I think Will M is correct though. They'll give over half of that to Cordero and a couple million more of it to next season's Renteria and save the rest for arb with mediocrities like Masset and Janish. The Reds should just forget all of these secondary issues and save all of that money to ensure that the rotation and the middle fo the order are addressed.

RedLegSuperStar
10-08-2011, 11:27 AM
Reds will have moves that will force the team to make. The team can't keep a September size roster for 162 games next year and I can't see the likes of Alonso, Frazier, Cozart, Wood, Francisco, or Sappelt spending their young careers in Louisville.

You have questions at 3rd, LF, and SS.

Walt has said he is looking for help at the front of the rotation and he wants a middle of the lineup hitter.

My moves are:

Phillips option gets picked up and then attempt to work on a deal... if nothing can get done by July 31st then he finds a new home. Frazier or Valaika are fill-ins.

Francisco Cordero is back on a 1 year deal with option for 2013 based on save completions.

Reds will make a splash via trade and part of me thinks money is the reason. Players who i'd target are Nelson Cruz, Andre Ethier, James Shields, Erick Aybar, Stephen Drew

If the bat can't be aquired then Reds sign Josh Willingham

Minor League signings w/ upside: Andy LaRoche and Felix Pie (3rd and CF depth). #rd base has been plaugued by injuries in 2011 with Rolen and Francisco and Frazier and Cairo had to fill in for the most part. Stubbs has so much potential but has a knacked for hearing strike 3 to many times. I viable in house option would be Sappelt. Regardless depth is a good thing.

RANDY IN INDY
10-08-2011, 11:41 AM
I hope they don't waste a bunch of money, collectively, on "spare parts" type players. Sometimes one big splash is much better than a bunch of little ripples.

oregonred
10-08-2011, 11:43 AM
I pretty much agree with your synopsis. Walt hasn't done anything yet and I don't expect him to start now.

I predict, in order:


5) Chapman pitches 5 consecutive shutout innings in Winter Ball convincing Walt no other starters will be needed

LOL, I could see that happening too.

Redhook
10-08-2011, 09:42 PM
I hope they don't waste a bunch of money, collectively, on "spare parts" type players. Sometimes one big splash is much better than a bunch of little ripples.

Exactly. Get the big difference maker and fill in the cracks with young players. It's not that hard. The Reds go backwards by filling in the cracks with mediocre, relatively expensive veterans first which doesn't allow them to get the player(s) they really need.

RedsManRick
10-08-2011, 09:53 PM
I hope they don't waste a bunch of money, collectively, on "spare parts" type players. Sometimes one big splash is much better than a bunch of little ripples.

Agreed. No Renteria's this year please.

REDREAD
10-08-2011, 10:15 PM
Reds will have moves that will force the team to make. The team can't keep a September size roster for 162 games next year and I can't see the likes of Alonso, Frazier, Cozart, Wood, Francisco, or Sappelt spending their young careers in Louisville.


I agree with your general train of thought.
There's another point to be made though.. At least one of Homer, Volquez and Wood will be gone. They almost have to move one of those guys.
A steadier pitcher will come in from outside the organization to go into the rotation.

A veteran infielder that can play SS will be signed. There will be groans on RedsZone, but this has to be done. Cozart had 2 surgeries (if I recall). He's not a sure thing. We need insurance against Janish having to start 100 games next year.

Call me crazy, but Ramon might come back next year. I give it 50/50 chance.

Not really sure if Frasier or Sappelt have any trade value to other teams.
Will be interesting to see what happens.

MikeS21
10-08-2011, 10:57 PM
If the Reds don't screw it up by giving big money to Cordero and some over the hill SS, they should have around $15 Million to spend.

I think Will M is correct though. They'll give over half of that to Cordero and a couple million more of it to next season's Renteria and save the rest for arb with mediocrities like Masset and Janish. The Reds should just forget all of these secondary issues and save all of that money to ensure that the rotation and the middle fo the order are addressed.
I don't think so.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/04/2012-contract-issues-cincinnati-reds.html

There have been some minor personnel changes, but the figures will be close - especially if Willis is retained. Unless there is a $7-$10 million jump, I'm not sure the Reds can afford much of an upgrade, especially when impact players are costing in the $15-$20 million per year range.

mth123
10-09-2011, 12:30 AM
I don't think so.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/04/2012-contract-issues-cincinnati-reds.html

There have been some minor personnel changes, but the figures will be close - especially if Willis is retained. Unless there is a $7-$10 million jump, I'm not sure the Reds can afford much of an upgrade, especially when impact players are costing in the $15-$20 million per year range.

Here is the probable 25 man roster for 2012 assuming no changes. These costs include bonuses due to Rolen, Votto and Chapman, a buy-out due Cordero, some cash for injury replacements while guys are on the DL and reasonable estimates for the arb guys. The Reds have already said the payroll should raise to the $85 Million range. Should the Reds deal guys like Masset and Volquez they'll have more. Unless, of course, they screw it up by messing with Cordero and bringing in next season's version of Renteria.




# Pos Name $
1 P Johnny Cueto 5.40
2 P Edinson Volquez 2.00
3 P Bronson Arroyo 7.00
4 P Homer Bailey 1.50
5 P Mike Leake 0.60
6 P Travis Wood 0.42
7 P Sam Lecure 0.50
8 P Jose Arredondo 1.00
9 P Logan Ondrusek 0.50
10 P Bill Bray 2.00
11 P Nick Masset 2.00
12 P Aroldis Chapman 3.25
13 C Ryan Hanigan 1.20
14 C Devin Mesoraco 0.42
15 1B Joey Votto 11.00
16 2B Br. Phillips 12.00
17 SS Zach Cozart 0.42
18 3B Scott Rolen 7.80
19 IF Juan Francisco 0.42
20 IF Miguel Cairo 1.00
21 LF Yonder Alonso 1.00
22 CF Chris Heisey 0.50
23 RF Jay Bruce 5.00
24 OF Drew Stubbs 0.60
25 U Todd Frazier 0.42

Ex $ Injury add ons 1.50
Ex $ Fr, Cordero 1.00


Total Payrol 70.45

marcshoe
10-09-2011, 12:50 AM
I think we'll see a starting pitcher added. If now, I'll join the anti-Walt chorus. I also think he'll pick up an experienced closer and probably overspend. Broxton keeps coming to mind.

jojo
10-10-2011, 03:18 AM
I think the Reds finally add Angel Pagan, he has a rebound season playing left in GABP and people use the signing by Jocketty to rekindle stats versus scouting arguments though both sides claim their approach would've suggested the signing.

Alas, only jojo actually suggested it though and jojometrics reign supreme as the universe reverberates in a harmonic glory as yet unseen.

mth123
10-10-2011, 04:16 AM
I think the Reds finally add Angel Pagan, he has a rebound season playing left in GABP and people use the signing by Jocketty to rekindle stats versus scouting arguments though both sides claim their approach would've suggested the signing.

Alas, only jojo actually suggested it though and jojometrics reign supreme as the universe reverberates in a harmonic glory as yet unseen.

Except Will M suggested it weeks ago and many suggested it last year.
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2486666&postcount=74


Personally, with Sappwlt, Frazier and Alonso all arriving, I don't think he'd add much unless he's a backfill that allows the team to deal Stubbs for an arm and even then I don't really think they need him.

jojo
10-10-2011, 08:06 AM
Except Will M suggested it weeks ago and many suggested it last year.
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2486666&postcount=74


Personally, with Sappwlt, Frazier and Alonso all arriving, I don't think he'd add much unless he's a backfill that allows the team to deal Stubbs for an arm and even then I don't really think they need him.

Only one suggested before those bandwagoners though....

dfs
10-10-2011, 10:34 AM
Cordero comes back.
Phillips gets a payday.
They'll bring in some spaghetti relievers to throw at the wall and see what sticks.
The move to the rotation involves Chapman.
Nothing done at third.
Nothing done in the outfield.