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Benihana
10-11-2011, 02:33 PM
Of course they'd have to settle their GM situation first, but here goes:

Reds trade:
Bronson Arroyo P
Yasmani Grandal C
Todd Frazier INF
Another player*

Red Sox trade:
Daiskue Matsuzaka P
Kevin Youkilis 3B/1B

Why it works for the Red Sox
The Sox bring back a fan favorite who has had success on the big stage in Arroyo and get their much needed catcher of the future in Grandal. Todd Frazier is also a guy that will appeal to the Boston fanbase and fill in where necessary. Matsuzaka has definitely worn out his welcome in Boston, after feuding with the team and being roasted in the media following a disappointing injury-plagued season. There are starting to be murmurs that Youkilis could also be on the way out, especially if the Sox feel 3B Will Middlebrooks is ready and have any desire to bring back David Ortiz to DH. MLBTR reported on this today.

Why it works for the Reds
In a rare, salary neutral deal, the Reds take a chance on a rebound from Matsuzaka while getting their hometown hero to takeover 3B duties (or at least spell Rolen). The Reds also frontload their salary obligations with Matsuzaka and Youkilis coming off the books after 2012, making room for possible extensions with Phillips and/or Votto. Youkilis will probably sign a hometown-friendly extension after 2012 and can move to 1B if Votto does not re-sign. Matsuzaka can replace Arroyo's production with more upside potential, and between Youk and Rolen, the Reds can get a full season of a middle-of-the-order bat to plug in between Votto and Bruce (or perhaps after Bruce). Frazier is somewhat redundant on this team with Miguel Cairo, and with Cairo, Francisco, Alonso, Youkilis, and Rolen all on the roster, there won't be many places for him to play.

*The Reds may have to add another piece to this deal, be it a pitcher like Volquez or Wood, or a prospect like Soto or LaMarre in order to make this deal fly. For the record, I'd be fine with that. Another interesting wrinkle is that IF the Reds re-sign Coco, they could include Masset in the deal as Papelbon is likely to leave as a FA.

While there is certainly significant risk to the deal for the Reds (mainly in health but also in performance), this is the type of "go-for-it" move this team needs to make that also does not sacrifice the future for years to come. What say you?

Scrap Irony
10-11-2011, 02:38 PM
Sold. (Though I don't think Boston would do this.)

mdccclxix
10-11-2011, 02:50 PM
With a healthy Rolen you are burning a great bat on the bench with Youk.

UKFlounder
10-11-2011, 03:20 PM
Move him to left field :lol:


With a healthy Rolen you are burning a great bat on the bench with Youk.

Benihana
10-11-2011, 05:14 PM
With a healthy Rolen you are burning a great bat on the bench with Youk.

With a healthy Youk, it is Rolen who would likely be on the bench.

Or, as another poster suggested, you could try Youk in LF. If you trade Alonso for a TOR pitcher, it might not be the world's worst idea...at least until Rolen is out of the lineup again.

Alternatively, you could occasionally rest Youkilis so that he could maintain his health as well. Realistically, Rolen comes off the books after 2012, so even if Rolen is healthy and plays in 100 games, you're only looking at Youk in LF for 60 games (resting 40 and playing the other 62 at 3B.) Worse things have happened.

klw
10-11-2011, 05:57 PM
I would not do this if I was with the Reds. Dice-K is only signed for 1 more year. He had Tommy John surgery in July and is therefore unlikely to help until the All-Star break and is not going to be someone you could necessarily count on. http://news.bostonherald.com/blogs/sports/red_sox/?p=6403&srvc=home&position=recent
Youk is recovering from his sports hernia surgery and should be good to go in a few weeks but is also only signed through 2012 though there is a team 13 mil option for 13. This seems like a lot of $ for potentially little contribution for two guys who may walk at the end of the one year. My biggest concern however is that you are giving up too much to get these guy as well. Frazier and Grandal is too much. Grandal should not be in a deal unless it is for a much higher return. Just my 2 cents.

I still think if Arroyo is going to Boston in a K swap it should be for Lackey/Middlebrooks or another top prospect. Lackey is very risky and is signed for a year beyond Arroyo which is why Boston would have to include someone for the Reds to do it but Lackey is someone who may bounce back if he gets out of Boston and his family situation settles down/ is less in the spotlight.

blumj
10-11-2011, 06:42 PM
Murphy's Law rules baseball, 2 injury prone guys sharing the same job always both end up injured at the same time.

mth123
10-11-2011, 06:50 PM
No thanks. That deal is not money neutral. Under the current status, the three guys dealt will combine for around $8 Million in 2012. Youkilis will be $12, and Daisuke will cost $10 and probably won't even pitch. The Reds will give up $14 Milion in payflex, deal one of their best trading chips while doing absolutely nothing to improve the rotation. Now there will be no money and one less major chip to actually add a starting pitcher.

MikeThierry
10-11-2011, 06:55 PM
Wow, I think the Reds would give up too much in that deal considering the two guys the Reds would be getting are injury prone. For one, I have never been a fan of Matsuzaka. In my opinion, he is more hype than anything. I know he pitched in the AL East and in that small park in Boston, but he just isn't a good pitcher. He had one good year in 2008 but very risky if you are giving up that many prospects to obtain him. I like Youkilis but he is older and injury prone. There are too many risks giving up that many prospects for those two guys.

I also might get some flak for this here but I think some of the posters are overvaluing Arroyo. He has been solid for the Reds but is really just a 4th type starting pitcher in the league plus he is getting older. The thing he does give you is innings so I will give him that. I just don't think the Reds are going to get a whole lot in return and I don't think they will get a top prospect if they try to trade him.

camisadelgolf
10-11-2011, 07:29 PM
First of all, please read my signature. How is that deal salary neutral? It would add over $30M to the books in 2012. And I know you tried explaining it, but how does the deal make sense anyway? In addition to losing 2-3 top prospects, you'd be getting half a season of a mediocre starter (at least we can count on Arroyo for a whole year), and you'd create an expensive logjam at third base that could potentially result in some clubhouse drama. Also, Dice-K has a full no-trade clause, and I'd guess that Cincinnati is near the bottom of the list of places he'd like to go.

Benihana
10-12-2011, 10:08 AM
It is salary neutral when you factor in that Arroyo is owed $11.5MM in 2013. True, it increases the payroll for 2012, but the total obligations are relatively neutral, and it frontloads the money owed so that the Reds may have room to extend some combination of Votto, Phillips, and/or Youkilis.

I'd assume that the Reds would negotiate a hometown extension with Youk, and thus he wouldn't be owed his $13MM in 2013 (the team would presumably buy him out anyway). Basically a similar scenario to the Rolen extension.

The proposal certainly has hair on it, with the health and performance risks to both Youkilis and Dice-K. However, it does allow the Reds the opportunity to significantly improve the major league team (getting a potential rotation upgrade and middle-of-the-order bat), expand their window (due to rearranging of financial commitments/possible contract extensions), and still hang onto the team's most important chips that are being mentioned in other potential deals (Votto, Alonso, Mesoraco, Chapman, etc.).

I also think that given the fallout in Boston, Dice-K would be willing to go almost anywhere to get out. However, now that Theo appears headed for Chicago, a Boston reunion for Arroyo seems less likely.

Benihana
10-12-2011, 10:14 AM
No thanks. That deal is not money neutral. Under the current status, the three guys dealt will combine for around $8 Million in 2012. Youkilis will be $12, and Daisuke will cost $10 and probably won't even pitch. The Reds will give up $14 Milion in payflex, deal one of their best trading chips while doing absolutely nothing to improve the rotation. Now there will be no money and one less major chip to actually add a starting pitcher.

Arroyo's salary alone is $12MM in 2012. $11.5MM in 2013. And I don't believe that counts his deferrals.

Benihana
10-12-2011, 10:23 AM
Wow, I think the Reds would give up too much in that deal considering the two guys the Reds would be getting are injury prone. For one, I have never been a fan of Matsuzaka. In my opinion, he is more hype than anything. I know he pitched in the AL East and in that small park in Boston, but he just isn't a good pitcher. He had one good year in 2008 but very risky if you are giving up that many prospects to obtain him. I like Youkilis but he is older and injury prone. There are too many risks giving up that many prospects for those two guys.

I also might get some flak for this here but I think some of the posters are overvaluing Arroyo. He has been solid for the Reds but is really just a 4th type starting pitcher in the league plus he is getting older. The thing he does give you is innings so I will give him that. I just don't think the Reds are going to get a whole lot in return and I don't think they will get a top prospect if they try to trade him.

I'm confused- the Reds are giving up too much in this deal but some posters are overvaluing Arroyo??

Benihana
10-12-2011, 10:25 AM
I would not do this if I was with the Reds. Dice-K is only signed for 1 more year. He had Tommy John surgery in July and is therefore unlikely to help until the All-Star break and is not going to be someone you could necessarily count on. http://news.bostonherald.com/blogs/sports/red_sox/?p=6403&srvc=home&position=recent
Youk is recovering from his sports hernia surgery and should be good to go in a few weeks but is also only signed through 2012 though there is a team 13 mil option for 13. This seems like a lot of $ for potentially little contribution for two guys who may walk at the end of the one year. My biggest concern however is that you are giving up too much to get these guy as well. Frazier and Grandal is too much. Grandal should not be in a deal unless it is for a much higher return. Just my 2 cents.

I still think if Arroyo is going to Boston in a K swap it should be for Lackey/Middlebrooks or another top prospect. Lackey is very risky and is signed for a year beyond Arroyo which is why Boston would have to include someone for the Reds to do it but Lackey is someone who may bounce back if he gets out of Boston and his family situation settles down/ is less in the spotlight.

The fact that Dice-K is signed for only one more year is a reason to do this deal IMO. Arroyo's obligation for 2013 hinders the team's ability to extend Phillips and/or Votto.

I would consider a Lackey/Middlebrooks swap as well, assuming the Sox would kick in about $30MM to cover the difference. Not sure how likely that is to happen.

camisadelgolf
10-12-2011, 10:28 AM
It is salary neutral when you factor in that Arroyo is owed $11.5MM in 2013. True, it increases the payroll for 2012, but the total obligations are relatively neutral, and it frontloads the money owed so that the Reds may have room to extend some combination of Votto, Phillips, and/or Youkilis.

I'd assume that the Reds would negotiate a hometown extension with Youk, and thus he wouldn't be owed his $13MM in 2013 (the team would presumably buy him out anyway). Basically a similar scenario to the Rolen extension.

The proposal certainly has hair on it, with the health and performance risks to both Youkilis and Dice-K. However, it does allow the Reds the opportunity to significantly improve the major league team (getting a potential rotation upgrade and middle-of-the-order bat), expand their window (due to rearranging of financial commitments/possible contract extensions), and still hang onto the team's most important chips that are being mentioned in other potential deals (Votto, Alonso, Mesoraco, Chapman, etc.).

I also think that given the fallout in Boston, Dice-K would be willing to go almost anywhere to get out. However, now that Theo appears headed for Chicago, a Boston reunion for Arroyo seems less likely.
Like I said, the deal would add $30M for 2012. If you take out the guaranteed portion of Arroyo's contract in 2013, the Reds are still paying $20M+ that they otherwise wouldn't. And what makes you think Dice-K would be an upgrade over Arroyo?

Benihana
10-12-2011, 10:30 AM
First of all, please read my signature. How is that deal salary neutral? It would add over $30M to the books in 2012. And I know you tried explaining it, but how does the deal make sense anyway? In addition to losing 2-3 top prospects, you'd be getting half a season of a mediocre starter (at least we can count on Arroyo for a whole year), and you'd create an expensive logjam at third base that could potentially result in some clubhouse drama[/B]. Also, Dice-K has a full no-trade clause, and I'd guess that Cincinnati is near the bottom of the list of places he'd like to go.

On what planet is Todd Frazier considered a top prospect in 2011/2012?

Benihana
10-12-2011, 10:33 AM
Like I said, the deal would add $30M for 2012. If you take out the guaranteed portion of Arroyo's contract in 2013, the Reds are still paying $20M+ that they otherwise wouldn't.
Please explain this.

And what makes you think Dice-K would be an upgrade over Arroyo?
I think Dice-K has more upside than Arroyo, but also more risk.

PuffyPig
10-12-2011, 10:46 AM
On what planet is Todd Frazier considered a top prospect in 2011/2012?

On Earth perhaps?

lollipopcurve
10-12-2011, 11:02 AM
I say wait until after 2012 to see if Youk becomes a free agent. By then, we'll know if he can still hit in the middle of the order, and 3B may be more available than it is now.

bucksfan2
10-12-2011, 11:37 AM
Lets say the Reds make a run at Youk. Now if I had any say so I would head to Joey Votto, tell him that we have a deal in the works for Youk, and ask him his thoughts on moving to LF. I would also lay out a plan to make a serious run at winning it all over the next 2-3 years. Its one thing to ask Votto to move to LF for a rookie but it entirely a different matter to ask him to move for a MVP candidate. You put Youkilis bat in the line up and you have 2 great hitters feeding upon each other. Just a thought.

Benihana
10-12-2011, 11:44 AM
I say wait until after 2012 to see if Youk becomes a free agent. By then, we'll know if he can still hit in the middle of the order, and 3B may be more available than it is now.

True, but we'll also have foregone 1/2 of our alleged "window" to compete.

lollipopcurve
10-12-2011, 11:49 AM
True, but we'll also have foregone 1/2 of our alleged "window" to compete.

You're assuming a lot about Youk and DiceK v. Arroyo. Like others, I don't see how a Rolen/Youk combo at 3B works. Take 2012 to find out more about Francisco -- too early to give up on him.

Benihana
10-12-2011, 11:50 AM
On Earth perhaps?

No, sorry, he's not even close.

Todd Frazier is a utility player. He was not a Top 100 prospect according to Baseball America prior to the season. In fact, he wasn't considered one of the Reds top 8 prospects according to BA. He will be 26 years old when he reports to Spring Training, with 112 career AB and a .727 OPS at the major league level. He has no position, but if he did, it would be a position where great offensive output is expected (1B/3B/LF). Nowhere on planet Earth is that considered a top prospect.

Benihana
10-12-2011, 12:01 PM
You're assuming a lot about Youk and DiceK v. Arroyo. Like others, I don't see how a Rolen/Youk combo at 3B works. Take 2012 to find out more about Francisco -- too early to give up on him.

Agree on Francisco. However, I could see some combination of Youk-Rolen-Francisco rotating between 3B and LF (with Francisco platooning with Heisey in LF most of the time- especially if Alonso is traded for a pitcher).

It is hard to envision a scenario where Scott Rolen plays more than 100 games in 2012, especially at a high enough level to warrant a place in the middle of the lineup. If Youk plays 130 (60 each at 3B and LF, 10 at 1B to spell Votto), the Reds could pack some serious punch. And that's hardly taking health for granted.

Meanwhile, Francisco and Heisey can platoon in LF for the 120 games that Youk isn't playing there. That way, you can see how Francisco can hit over the long run, and that can help inform whether you have to go all out to re-sign Votto, or you can pencil Youk in at 1B and Francisco at 3B after 2012.

This all also assumes you deal Alonso for a TOR arm, giving the team a look like this:

2B Phillips
SS Cozart
1B Votto
LF/3B Youkilis
RF Bruce
CF Stubbs
3B/LF Rolen (or Francisco/Heisey in LF)
C Mesoraco/Hanigan

SP Cueto
SP Acquisition (Shields, etc.) for Alonso et al
SP Bailey
SP Leake
SP Chapman/Dice-K (Dice-K takes over when he is healthy and Chapman hits his innings limit. If Dice-K flops, you can insert Wood or Volquez)

Please tell me how that is not a better team than what we sent out in 2011?

jojo
10-12-2011, 01:09 PM
No, sorry, he's not even close.

Todd Frazier is a utility player. He was not a Top 100 prospect according to Baseball America prior to the season. In fact, he wasn't considered one of the Reds top 8 prospects according to BA. He will be 26 years old when he reports to Spring Training, with 112 career AB and a .727 OPS at the major league level. He has no position, but if he did, it would be a position where great offensive output is expected (1B/3B/LF). Nowhere on planet Earth is that considered a top prospect.

Frazier is no Will Middlebrooks, that's for sure. The BoSox also have a catching prospect with mongo offensive ability close to the majors too.

klw
10-12-2011, 04:39 PM
I just read the Boston.Com article on the collapse. I want nothing to do with Lackey, not that I had a great interest beforehand.

Spitball
10-12-2011, 06:14 PM
I just read the Boston.Com article on the collapse. I want nothing to do with Lackey, not that I had a great interest beforehand.

And they surely wouldn't want to bring Arroyo into that clubhouse. They don't really need Grandahl because they have Saltamalachia, along with catching depth with prospects Lavarnway, Federowicz, and Exposito.

Did anyone see Youkilis in left field versus the Yankees last year? It was not pretty.

Why would the Reds trade for a pitcher who won't be able to pitch until mid-season at best?

The Red Sox need to figure out how to fix their rotation, and Arroyo wouldn't be the answer.

camisadelgolf
10-12-2011, 07:20 PM
No, sorry, he's not even close.

Todd Frazier is a utility player. He was not a Top 100 prospect according to Baseball America prior to the season. In fact, he wasn't considered one of the Reds top 8 prospects according to BA. He will be 26 years old when he reports to Spring Training, with 112 career AB and a .727 OPS at the major league level. He has no position, but if he did, it would be a position where great offensive output is expected (1B/3B/LF). Nowhere on planet Earth is that considered a top prospect.
I'm not claiming he's a #1 prospect (although Baseball America claimed him to be the Reds' top prospect and #43 prospect in all of professional baseball last year). In other words, I'm saying he's a top prospect--not the top prospect. He plays good defense, has some pop, gets on base, and has the potential to do everything you'd want out of an everyday player.

Quite frankly, you'd have trouble finding many prospects with his combination of tools and production as a professional. I don't think it's much of a reach to think he could play good defense while putting up a .800 OPS as the regular third baseman. Among qualifiers, only 6 third basemen were able to do that this year. Are you telling me that having the potential to be one of the top-6 third basemen in MLB doesn't make you a top prospect? And if you don't think there's a reasonable chance he could OPS .800, then what are you expecting out of him? Should the Reds put him on waivers now and just get it over with?

jojo
10-12-2011, 07:37 PM
To be fair, the comment about qualifying 3B is probably why suggesting Frazier could OPS .800 while being above average defensively at third is being optimistic.

blumj
10-12-2011, 07:56 PM
I just read the Boston.Com article on the collapse. I want nothing to do with Lackey, not that I had a great interest beforehand.

Congratulations, you passed the sanity test.

mth123
10-12-2011, 07:59 PM
Arroyo's salary alone is $12MM in 2012. $11.5MM in 2013. And I don't believe that counts his deferrals.

Nope. Arroyo's salary in 2012 is $7 Million. In 2013 it is $6.5 Million. Many sources are just taking the deferred money and dividing by 3 and spreading it accross 2011, 2012 and 2013. Arroyo will cost $7 Million in cash. The Reds may choose to stick another 2 or 3 million in an annuity, but the only obligation they have in 2012 is $7 Million.

camisadelgolf
10-12-2011, 08:00 PM
To be fair, the comment about qualifying 3B is probably why suggesting Frazier could OPS .800 while being above average defensively at third is being optimistic.
Of course it's optimistic. Optimism is inherent when discussing baseball prospects.

Benihana
10-12-2011, 08:17 PM
I'm not claiming he's a #1 prospect (although Baseball America claimed him to be the Reds' top prospect and #43 prospect in all of professional baseball last year). In other words, I'm saying he's a top prospect--not the top prospect. He plays good defense, has some pop, gets on base, and has the potential to do everything you'd want out of an everyday player.

Quite frankly, you'd have trouble finding many prospects with his combination of tools and production as a professional. I don't think it's much of a reach to think he could play good defense while putting up a .800 OPS as the regular third baseman. Among qualifiers, only 6 third basemen were able to do that this year. Are you telling me that having the potential to be one of the top-6 third basemen in MLB doesn't make you a top prospect? And if you don't think there's a reasonable chance he could OPS .800, then what are you expecting out of him? Should the Reds put him on waivers now and just get it over with?

I never accused you of calling him the top prospect. I said he's not a top prospect, which he's not.

I cited last offseason's BA rankings, whereas you are citing those from 2 years ago. Enough said on that matter.

I do not think Todd Fraizer will be a top 6 3B in MLB, and I'm willing to put a lot of money on that.

Benihana
10-12-2011, 08:18 PM
Nope. Arroyo's salary in 2012 is $7 Million. In 2013 it is $6.5 Million. Many sources are just taking the deferred money and dividing by 3 and spreading it accross 2011, 2012 and 2013. Arroyo will cost $7 Million in cash. The Reds may choose to stick another 2 or 3 million in an annuity, but the only obligation they have in 2012 is $7 Million.

Well then I'm mistaken. I was going of his BR page which I assumed to be reliable.

MikeThierry
10-14-2011, 12:42 AM
I'm confused- the Reds are giving up too much in this deal but some posters are overvaluing Arroyo??

Yes, by giving that many prospects away in the original proposed trade by the OP is giving up way too much, regardless of Arroyo being in the trade or not. Dice K is just a name,can't count on him at all, and is vastly overrated/hyped in my opinion. I like Youk but he is getting old and often injured. Giving up young prospects for any of those guys to Boston, where they can use in a mega trade later in the off season or use as their future Red Sox players, is way too risky and would not be very smart on the Reds part.

corkedbat
10-14-2011, 02:25 AM
Forget Dice-K, get Bryce Brentz or Will Middlebrooks